Vietnam Endofcreditcrunch 10092013 As

7/29/2019 Vietnam Endofcreditcrunch 10092013 As

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See the last page of this report for important disclosures

Monthly Report

Vietnam

10 Sep 2013

Vietnam credit rating

Agency Rating Outlook Date S&P BB- Stable 28-Jun-13Moodys B2 Stable 29-Sep-12Fitch B+ Stable 29-Jan-13

Vietnam key economic indicators

2012 1H13 2013FGDP (y/y %) 5.03 4.90 5.20CPI (y/y, %) 6.81 6.69 7.00

Trade balance (USD bn) 0.75 -1.49 -4.00

FDI disbursemt (USDbn) 10.46 5.70 11.00Refinancing rate (%) 9.00 7.00 7.00

Deposit rate (%) 8.00 7.50 7.503-Y VGB yield (%) 9.25 7.22

Vietnam: End of Credit Crunch?Does weakness provide attractive entry points?Both Vietnam equity and bond market, attributed by worse global market,have deteriorated since August. A strong net outflows in August was led bygeopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and concerns on premature QEtapering.

Macroeconomic: Vietnams bussiness environment remains weak sincethe updated data in August do not display any significantly break-out thesluggish trend. Inflation went up due to food and food stuff. In addition,industrial activities continued to see modest growth. Primary statistic of GSO shows that trade balance turned to deficit of US$300 million after a 2moths of surplus. Vietnam trade deficit runs lower than 1% of GDP, not put

any press on the Vietnam dong.Some catalysts have occurred as we expect inflation hit its short-term peak in August. The government has moved on the right track to stabilize thecurrency and intervene to interbank rate. That could be an importantcatalyst to revive confidence of investors.

Fixed income: Vietnam bond market also sees weakness in last 2 months,the 3-year bond yield heads up 170bps from its bottom in June and isheading to new high. The main reason for the rally of yields is subject toaccelerating inflation. However, we expect that yields will reach near termpeak in short-run and it is good time to long front-end bond.

Equities: In August VN-Index retreated 4.44% over the prior month tobreak down 480 level as of 30 August and average trading volumeincreased slightly by 5.70% m/m. However, the index still outperformsother regional EMs by increasing 12.74% year-to-date. The catalyst of Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) and VAMC establishment could not offsetheavy foreign outflows. Vietnam market is currently trading at 12.25x of PER, a 31% discount from average ASEAN market.

The correction of equity market also reflects not high-as-expected earningsresults. In our statistic of 651 listed companies results, sale declined by4.61% y/y and profit growth was at 9.34% y/y in 1H13.

2013 may be a turning point for a crunch end, but it may take 2-3 years to

get out of its bad effect. T he relative ly cheap valuation cannot be a trigger for Vietnam equities to turn bullish in near-term view. In that context, fixed income is still the most safe efficient investment channel in Vietnam in the short and mid-term.

Vietnam Market Valuation Summary

1- Y history La str 1M(bps)

Min(% )

Ma x(% )

Interbank m arket (% p.a)

ON 2.90 - 225 0.75 8.00

1W 4.25 - 100 0.75 8.50

2W 4.43 - 82 0.75 8.25

1M 5.00 - 25 1.75 8.75

Primary Market (% p.a )

1Y6.25 2 6.43 9.80

2Y 7.30 70 6.43 9.80

3Y 7.70 n.a 6.75 10.00

5Y 7.65 n.a 7.30 9.79

Sec ondary Market (% p.a)

1Y 6.88 25 5.63 9.27

2Y 7.66 11 6.07 10.00

3Y 7.90 5 6.20 10.24

5Y 8.68 19 7.23 10.38

7Y 8.80 - 7 8.70 10.40

10Y 8.80 - 40 8.95 10.50

15Y 9.20 - 15 9.13 10.60

Forex & Equity Market

USD/VND 21,250 - 90 20,860 21,900

VN-Index 472.7 - 19 375.3 521.5

Source: Blo omberg & MA S Research

*Data updated to 30 A ugust

Special Report


2/9

Le Quang Minh, [email protected] Phan Khanh Hoang, [email protected]

22Mirae Asset Securities

Economic data remains challenging

Consumer price reaches its peak?

Vietnam CPI has climbed for 3 months consecutively and increased significantly by 0.83%

m/m in August. The fastest pace of monthly CPI in the last 5 months results in a breakoutfrom sluggish tendency of inflation. The inflation has accelerated for a fourth consecutivemonth and jumped to 6.88% y/y in August from 6.67% in July.

Higher inflation was mainly driven by cost-push from government-administrative areas such ashealthcare service, education, electricity and energy costs. Healthcare services cost climbed4.11% m/m as Hanoi city approved to increase its hospital fees. Education cost hike 0.90%m/m as usually due to back-to-school period. In our opinion, the increase in price of two firstgroups will not occur in the following months. Electricity price that has gone up by 5% since

August and gasoline price rose by VND420-470 per litter in July, causing a lingering chainreaction in relevant sectors as Transportation (1.11% m/m); Housing & Material (0.88%).However, the Food and Foodstuff accelerated sharply by 0.54% y/y in August against 0.10%in July, which is the most disturbing component.

Vietnam monthly consumer price, in our view, is subjected to have further increase in near-term due to (1) the lagging effects of gasoline and electricity price hike, (2) education fees of Ho Chi Minh city is increased by three to four-fold and (3) domestic energy price is vulnerableto global oil price due to geopolitical tensions. However, a sizable increasing in prices inSeptember, the y/y inflation may decrease based on cyclical effects. Hence, we expectinflation to reach its peak in August and set around 7% by year-end.

Figure 1: Vietanm inflation performance (%) Figure 2: Vietnam credit and money supply (%)

Source: GSO Source: SBV and MAS research

End of Credit Crunch?

A credit crunch is often caused by a sustained period of careless and inappropriate lendingwhich results in losses for lending institutions and investors in debt when the loans turn sourand the full extent of bad debts becomes known. As a result, financial institutions facinglosses may then reduce the availability of credit, and increase the cost of accessing credit byraising interest rates. In some cases, lenders may be unable to lend further because of earlierlosses. Data also shows that SBV has taken measures to protect banks against another creditcrunch by offering them access to a sizable supply of M2 since 2012 with around 20% yearover year.

Consequently, credit growth enlarged to 5.40% year-to-date as of 20 August, which is farlower than money supply (M2) and deposit growth at 8.40% and 9.50% respectively.Moreover, Vietnam Asset Management Company (VAMC) started operation since August andthe government set target for VAMC to write-off VND10 trillion of NPLs in 4Q13. Hence, banks

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Credit Growth (y/y)Money Supply Growth (M2) (y/y)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bad_debthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_(finance)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interest_rateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interest_rateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_(finance)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bad_debthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt


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are still struggling in creating new loans while deposit stock keeps increasing. Many expertsprojected that the crunch may last for 2-3 years, but in our view, 2013 may be a turning pointfor a crunch end.

Industrial activities and retail sales recovered slightly

Domestic demand and industrial activities posted moderate recovery in August. The HSBC PMIin August has recorded at 49.4 points, a slight improvement from 48.5 points in July and thehighest level since April. Although the index is still below 50 point, which indicates contraction,the pace of contraction has shown signs of slowing. The index of industrial production (IIP) in

August has strong correlation with HSBC PMI when it rose by 2.1% m/m, leading to a 5.3%y/y increase for the first 8 months of the year. Consumption has been improving gradually inslow pace. In such business condition and no more stimuli, we retain our forecast for Vietnameconomic expansion at 5.3% y/y.

Figure 3: Vietnam HSBC PMI (%) Figure 4: Vietnam retail sales growth (%)

Source: Markit, HSBC Source: GSO

Trade balance turned to deficit

Vietnam trade balance shifted to negative territory of US$300 million after posting twoconsecutive months of trade surplus. The trade deficit is at US$577 million ytd. Moreover, thedeficit may incur by SBVs gold import of 60 tons (estimated about US$ 2.5-3bn). Thus, tradedeficit is no longer a key concern for the Vietnam dong depreciation. The abating exportgrowth (0.9% in August) was the main cause of trade deficit rather than higher import growth(5.1% in August). The main components of export increase in descending order of contribution included Phones and Phone accessories (15.8%), Garment and textile (13.2%)and Electronics and computers (7.9%). The export growth is still driven in major parts by FDIenterprises

Figure 5: Vietnam monthly Trade balance (USD bn) Figure 6: Vietnam FDI (USD bn)

Source: GSO Source: FIA

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Nominal Retail Sale Growth

Real Retail Sales Growth

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Trade Balance (RHS) 12-month trailing

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FDI Commitment

FDI Disbursement


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FDI commitment has turned south, but disbursement unchanged

The outlook for foreign direct investment (FDI) has been more positive though Vietnam has jumped five notches to 70th among 148 economies listed in the World Economic Forums2013-2014 Global Competitiveness Report. The FDI commitment value in August stands atUS$720 million, halved from US$1,440 million in July. However, the FDI disbursement hasbeen less volatile and is recorded at US$910 million in August, little changed from US$950million in July, leaving the year-to-date disbursement capital at US$7.56 million (up 3.85%y/y).

Fixed income: Outperform

Vietnam bond price is a moving lower when yields extend to move new high in August, partlyon higher inflation concern. Besides, bond market has been suffering heavy outflows fromforeign funds. Bond yields have moved above far neutral when the SBVs refinancing rate

versus 3Y Vietnam government bond yields spread around 90bps. The O/N interbank ratecurrently is trading around 3.05%, down 200bps from end of July, so banks can thereforeaccess funding to hold front-end bond safely (3Y at 7.90%).

We project more Outperform for bond market and it is likely a good time to long for short end(less than 5Y of remaining maturity) bonds. In addition, inflation is expected to be around 7%by year-end. The main disturbing problem now comes from foreign fund outflows.

Figure 7: Vietnam bond yield appear realtively attractive (% pa)

Source: HNX

Primary market: increase in supply? Bond appetite has gradually recovered in Augustthanks to higher fixings yields. Moreover, fiscal deficit extends firmly with total VND 119.8 tnin 8 months. To finance the shortage, MoF has issued VND 134.8 tn from January to August.The G-bond matured amount is VND48.5 tn, so the net issuance is only about VND48.5 bn. Asschedule, MoF will issue G-bond amount at VND170 tn in 2013. Hence, the real amountissuance may be much higher than the planned amount.

For G-bond: In August, VST was successful to sell only VND5.70 trillion of T-bond and VND2.57 trillion of T-Bill, accounting for 41% and 64% offered amount respectively. By

the last auction, the fixings inched up 2 bps to 7.30% for 2Y bond and 5 bps for 3Y bond from the prior auction.

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3-Y yeild

Refinancing rate


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For G-Backed bond: VDB was able to sell only 17% of total offered amount at VND0.68trillion. VBSP was able to place only VND500 billion out of VND0.40 trillion-offeredamount.

Figure 8: Primary market performance (VND tn) Figure 9: Primary market fixings (% pa)

Source: Source: Bloomberg

Secondary market: volume improved, yields up 5-25 bps.

Secondary market turnover increased slightly by 6.6% m/m. Domestic investors havere-entered bond market on bargain activity while yield has climbed 5-25 bps for front-endbonds from the end of July. Total turnover was up slightly by 6.6% m/m to VND29.7 trillion in

August.

Foreign fund outflows from EMs were weighted on geographic turmoil and premature QE

tapering. Fortunately, the bond outflows from Vietnam market was in lower pace in August,which totaled VND1.45 trillion and decreased 66.9% from net outflows in July.

Figure 10: Vietnam Secondary market turn over (VND tn) Figure 11: Vietnam Weekly net bond flows (VND tn)

Source: HNX Source: HNX

Bond yields head up with slower pace. The yields have risen for front-end bonds by 5-25bps in August. However, yield rally dynamics seem to be slowing down when reaching 2-month high. We expect yield to form near term peak as inflation is also expected shape a topin September, a good time to long front-end bond.

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Offered Vol. Accpeted Vol.

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Net Flows Trailing 12-Mth


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Figure 12: Vietnam bond yields performance (% pa) Figure 13: Vietnam bond yield curves (% pa)

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Monetary market: VNBOR rates extend losing momentum.

Monetary market shows signal of stability in August, though VAMC has not shown anymovement to clean up balance sheet of banking system. In addition, credit growth hasincreased for a sixth straight months with higher pace, but has not put any pressure onliquidity of commercial banks. Notably, the interbank slumped in August and widened the gapbetween bond yields, which open arbitrage opportunity to hold bond. The overnight VNBOR rate fell significantly by 95 bps to 2.90% as of 30 August against early of July. Longer termmoved higher 25-40 bps but overall in losing trend.

Figure 14: Vietnam interbank rate performance (%) Table 2: The interbank rate movement

ON 1W 2W 1M

30-Aug-13 2.90 4.25 4.43 5.00

1-week ago 3.85 3.85 4.15 4.75

1-month ago 5.75 5.75 6.00 5.50

1-year ago 2.50 3.75 4.25 7.50

Source: Bloomberg

Source:Bloomberg

The SBV continues to support liquidity . Net injection of the SBV in August via OMOwas at VND4.7 trillion, down 34% m/m since banking system showed signal of stability. Inwhich, the SBV pumped out VND16.9 trillion via selling outright (which came from falling dueSBV notes), and withdrew VND12.2 trillion via repo reverse. The SBV is still cautious in usingOMO to stabilize the interbank rate and support illiquid commercial lender, without puttingmore pressure on inflation.

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Figure 15: Open Market Operation (VND trillion) Figure 16: Outstanding SBV notes in FY2013


The USD/VND exchange rate has been stable within the range. Vietnam dong hasfirmed its value though foreign outflows from all risk asset remains, which may deteriorate thecapital account surplus.

Exchange rate USD/VND on both interbank and grey market is now trading below the upperbound regulated by the SBV. Notably, the USD/VND exchange rate fall VND90 per US Dollarto as of 30 August to 21,250, narrowing the gap between interbank exchange rate andunofficial ones. The Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) has mixed performance in August. The12-M NDF almost stay flat in August at VND22,993 per US Dollar, while the shorter term 1-and 3-M increased by VND100 per USD.

Figure 17: USD/VND exchange rate Figure 18: USD/VND NDF performance

Source: SBV, VCB and others Source: Bloomberg

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Repo reverses Sell Outright

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Unoffical Ex. Rate

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Equities: The second change to long equities

Vietnam equities slumped to 2-month low. August was another bearish month for Vietnamese equities as the VN-Index recorded 4.44% decline over the last month. The VN-Index fell as low as 480, the lowest in the last 2 months. However, the index still managed tooutperform other regional EMs by increasing 12.74% year-to-date.

Figure 18: Vietanam Market performance Figure 19: Vietnam YTD outperform peer markets


Market activity picked up slightly thanks to late bargain trading, recording an average tradingvolume of 39.5 million shares, up 5.70% from Julys average of 37.4 million shares . Thecatalyst of higher Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) and VAMC establishment could not offset thenegative effect from heavy foreign outflows (US$43 million in August and from US$15 millionin July). The tendency seems to be expanding due to Vietnam markets ETF redemption.

Earning results in 1H13 look worse but strong divergence. The correction of equitymarket also reflects not high-as-expected earnings results. In our statistic of 651 listedcompanies results (including banks and property companies), sales declined by 4.61% y/yand profit increased 9.34%y/y. Property sector recognizes a huge profit increase (116.5%) as

VIC realized its profit (VND3,772 bn) from selling its properties recently.

Vietnam market 1H13 earning results overview

Sector No.Net income

+/- Growth rate1H12 1H13

VNDbn VNDbn VNDbn %

Retail 8 161 134 -26 -16.34Insurance 7 1,231 924 -307 -24.92

Property 62 2,060 4,460 2400 116.48

IT 21 913 904 -9 -1.01Oil & Gas 4 1,319 1,583 263 19.95Financial Services 21 728 650 -77 -10.65

Utilities 30 5,911 9,374 3463 58.58Tourism & Entertainment Services 13 232 188 -45 -19.31Industry 101 1,292 1,474 182 14.10Consumer Goods 21 446 427 -19 -4.37

Chemicals 22 3,097 2,576 -521 -16.82Automobile & Parts 11 285 452 167 58.71Natural Resources 59 1,290 1,490 200 15.48Food & Beverage 55 5,248 4,719 -529 -10.08

Communication 24 66 62 -4 -6.12Construction & Material 168 852 270 -582 -68.27Healthcare & Pharmaceutical 18 522 577 54 10.43Banking 8 10,482 9,249 -1233 -11.76

Total 653 36,137 39,513 3,377 9.34

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MSCI EMs

China

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Vietnam


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MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES (VIETNAM)

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