Vietnam monitor 11/2009

7/28/2019 Vietnam monitor 11/2009

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abcGlobal Research

Economics: GDP growth picking up and bank credit

growth surging once again. But this is leading to a rapid

deterioration in the trade deficit. Policy makers need to

head for the exit, with more aggressive action likely as

inflation moves towards double-digits.Equity Strategy: The Vietnam Index was down

8% q-t-d, underperforming its Asian peers. Volume

picked up because foreign investors took profit. 12M

forward PE at 19x, more expensive than peers.

Fixed Income Strategy: We see 2yr VGB yieldsrising 70bp to 11.00% (mid) by Vietnamese Tet in

mid-February. Our bearish view is reinforced by

tightening VND liquidity, which is likely to persist given

the extended subsidised loan programme. To this, we add

an element of short-term skittishness in the FX market,

which may accelerate the increase in bond yields.FX Strategy: Depreciation pressure has intensified,

and re-allowing gold imports will not sustainably reduce

the paucity of VND demand. The longer monetary

tightening is delayed, the greater the risk that the market

becomes destabilised. Either way, expect VND

depreciation pressure to persist.

VND premium from band ceiling (% of spot)

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09

NDF fix less spot USD-VND

Source: HSBC, Reuters

Vietnam

Economics & Strategy

Vietnam Monitor(Issue 26)VND depreciation pressure has

intensified

12 November 2009

Richard Yetsenga*

FX Strategist

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

+852 2996 6565 [email protected]

Virgil Esguerra

Asia Local Rates Strategist



Jacqueline Tse

Equity Strategist



Robert Prior-Wandesforde

Senior Economist

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited+65 62390840 [email protected]

View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to NYSE and/or NASDregulations

Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai BankingCorporation Limited

Disclaimer & DisclosuresThis report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certificationsin the Disclosure appendix, and with theDisclaimer, which forms part of it
mailto:[email protected]://www.research.hsbc.com/http://www.research.hsbc.com/http://www.research.hsbc.com/mailto:[email protected]


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USD/VND FX reserves

15,500

16,000

16,500

17,000

17,500

18,000

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

12.5%

U SD/VN D official (lhs) Y/y change (rhs)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Foreign reserv es (USDbn)

Source: Bloomberg Source: CEIC

O/n call money, benchmark policy rates and 5yr bond yields Headline CPI and ex-food & energy

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

O/n call money Base rateRefinancing rate 5y r VGB

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

CPI y /y CPI ex -food & energy y /y

Source: Reuters, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC

HCMS Index GDP growth

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jan-07

M

ay-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

M

ay-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

M

ay-09

Sep-09

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

HCM SI (lhs) Y/y change (rhs )

0

2

4

6

8

10

M

ar-00

M

ar-01

M

ar-02

M

ar-03

M

ar-04

M

ar-05

M

ar-06

M

ar-07

M

ar-08

M

ar-09

GDP, y/ y

Source: Bloomberg Source: CEIC


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Good news

The Vietnamese economy is firmly on the mend.

Having registered its lowest GDP rise in many

years at the beginning of 2009 (3.1%), the country

has seen year-on-year growth climb to 4.5% in the

second quarter and 5.8% in Q3.

The biggest improvement has come in the

construction sector where output has turned from

negative growth in mid-2008, to double-digit

gains in the third quarter of this year. This sector

accounts for roughly 9% of total GDP and has

benefited significantly from the various

government-led infrastructure projects.

1. Manufacturing & construction: Contrasting fortunes

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1416

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Manufac turing Construction

% Yr

GDP

Source: CEIC

Improvements have also been seen in agriculture

(17% of GDP), manufacturing (33%) and services

41%), although these have been much less

impressive. In particular, manufacturing continues

to expand at a low single-digit rate, well below

the near 9.5% average growth the sector has

enjoyed since the start of the decade.

The on-going weakness of Vietnams exports, as

shown by chart 2, is no doubt largely responsible,although we suspect the worst is now over. In our

view, Asia is entering a virtuous circle of growth

whereby policy support has helped kick-start

domestic growth, which in turn is beginning to

lead to higher import/export demand, thereby

boosting incomes and encouraging further gains

in consumption and investment.

2. Vietnams exports still suffering

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

T otal Ex-Oil

% Yr Exports of goods

Source: CEIC

Economics

GDP growth picking up and bank credit growth surging once again

But this is leading to a rapid deterioration in the trade deficit

Policy makers need to head for the exit, with more aggressive

action likely as inflation moves towards double-digits


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and badThe main worry for the country at present is the

renewed and rapid deterioration in the trade

position (chart 3) as import growth comfortably

outpaces that of exports. October saw a USD1.9bn

trade shortfall equivalent to about 23% of GDP

on an annualised basis and not too distant from

the crisis levels of early 2008.

3. Monthly trade deficit close to USD2bn in October

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

05 06 07 08 09

Trade bal ance

USDbn

Source: CEIC

Looking at the breakdown of imports, it is autos,

steel and (refined) petroleum that have seen the

biggest turnarounds over recent months. This is

interesting because it was exactly the same sectors

that witnessed the strongest import growth in the

first few months of last year - the main difference

this time being the still subdued rate of growth in

machinery imports.

Vietnam has at least gone some way to reducing

its petroleum bill via the Dung Quat oil refinery,

designed to meet 30% of the countrys domestic

fuel requirements. Operations had to be halted in

mid-August while repairs were undertaken, but it

has been up and running again since early

October. Unfortunately, however, it doesnt look

as though the refinery will prove to be the answer

to the deficit issue.

It is also noticeable that the huge flows of foreign

direct investment into the country during 2007

and 2008 have yet to turn into a structural shift up

in exports, allowing the country to run a lower

trade deficit at a given rate of economic growth.

The concern here is that the majority of the

investment found its way into asset markets,

although there is plenty of anecdotal evidence to

suggest otherwise. Our assumption is that it will

take longer to reap the export benefits of the

capital expenditure, while in the short-term

imports are being boosted as the companies get

themselves established.

To some extent, the deterioration in the trade

position is the mirror image of Vietnams growing

budget deficit, which we expect to hit 8% of GDP

this year. The private sector has also been

encouraged to borrow aggressively on the back of

the 4ppt interest rate subsidy.

As at the end of October, USD23bn (equivalent to

24% of GDP) in subsidised loans had been

extended, helping to explain why bank credit rose

33% between the end of last year and October

2009. This is above the upwardly revised 30%

official target for the year as a whole set just a

couple of months ago. The only other country in

the region, if not the world, to see such a sharp

increase in lending this year is China, although it

had the cushion of a much larger current account

surplus to begin with.

Time to exit

It seems to us that the time has come for the

Vietnam government to exit from what has been a

huge relaxation of monetary and fiscal conditions.

Indeed it is hard to think of any country that has

ever cut interest rates by 7% points and

announced a fiscal easing worth 8.5% of GDP in

the space of a few short months.

So far, the government has taken some modest

steps towards the exit, but is clearly still intent on

keeping policy conditions easy until the recoveryis assured. It announced recently, for example,

that the interest rate subsidy would be extended


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until the end of next year, albeit with a 2%

subsidy rather than the current 4%.

In our view, further policy action will be triggered

as inflation continues to move higher. So far, we

have seen a fairly modest increase in the year-on-

year rate of inflation from a low of 2% in August

to 3% in the latest data for October. But the 3

month-on-3 month seasonally annualised rate

suggests consumer price inflation is only heading

in one direction in the next few months and itsnot down (chart 4).

4. Inflation: Heading back to double digits?

-10-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Year-on-Year 3m-on-3m annualised*

Consumer prices

%

Source: HSBC, CEIC. * Using seasonally adjusted data

Even if we assume the CPI rises in line with the

long-term seasonally adjusted month-on-month

average (of 0.7%), this would take the year-on-

year rate up to a high of 8.9% by August next

year. In practice, however, with international food

and oil commodity prices rising and domestic

demand picking up, the risks to this are very much

on the upside. We are looking the headline rate to

reach double-digits by the second quarter of next

year.

If this is right and the trade deficit remains wide,

as we expect, then policy interest rates will rise,

while fiscal policy will probably be tightened as

well. We are looking for the policy rate to end

2010 at 11%, up from 7% currently.

Given the long lag with which monetary and most

fiscal action works, such measures are unlikely to

have much dampening effect on GDP growth in

2010, which we still expect to average 6.8% (up

from roughly 5% this year). In 2011, however, we

look for growth to soften to 5.9%.

Robert Prior-Wandesforde


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Vietnam underperformed

The Vietnamese market continues to be driven by

the volatility in the global market. The Vietnam

Index once reached a recent peak of 600 in late

October (chart 1), then investors took profit.

Quarter-to-date, the Vietnam Index dropped 8%

(as of Nov 9), shedding more gains than any other

Asian indices. It underperformed even the highly

risky Pakistan Karachi Index, which declined

4.4% quarter-to-date and is the second worst

performing Asian market this quarter so far.

Foreign investors took profit

For a short while, the Vietnamese markets came

alive in October. The average daily trading

volume of the combined Ho Chi Minh and Hanoi

exchanges increased 63% to USD315m,

compared to the USD193m in August. However,

the strength seems to be levelling off already,

suggesting profit taking activities are coming to

an end (chart 2).

Foreign investors gathered pace to sell Vietnamese

stocks. During the first 5 trading days in November,

foreign investors already sold USD15m worth of

Vietnamese stocks (chart 3), setting a stark contrast

to the USD1m worth of stocks that were sold by

foreign investors in the entire month of October. The

foreign ownership percentage of the market

continues to drop to 16% from 21% in July. The

foreign investors proportion of the total turnover

lingers around the low level of 5% (chart 4). We do

not expect foreign investors to return amid the weak

macro environment.

Equity Strategy

Vietnam Index down 8% q-t-d, underperforming its Asian peers

Volume picked up because foreign investors took profit

12M forward PE at 19x, more expensive than peers

1. Vietnam stock index 2. Daily trading value on HCM and Hanoi exchanges (20DMA)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jan-06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

VN Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

USDm

HCM Hanoi

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg Source: HSBC, Bloomberg


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5. Key stock market data

HCM Hanoi Total

Market cap (USD m) 27,433 6,048 33,481No. of stocks 181 198 379Stocks with mkt cap >USD1bn 8 1 9Stocks with mkt cap >USD500m 15 3 18Stocks with mkt cap >USD200m 26 6 32Stocks that hit foreign limit 0 1 1Daily turnover (USDm, 1mth ave) 206 109 315Foreign ownership 16.4% 13.5% 15.9%

PE (2008) x 23.8 19.1ROE 22.9% 17.2% 22.8%DY 2.7% 5.0%

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg (Up to Nov 6, 09)

After the market gave back most of its gains in the

quarter, the number of stocks that hit the foreign

limit is now down to one (Asia Commercial

Bank). There are 32 companies with market caps

above USD200m. The four new additions to the

list are Vietnam Export-Import Commercial

(EIB), Binh Chanh Construction (BCI), Ho ChiMinh City Securities (HCM) and Ho Chi Minh

City Infrastructure Investment (CII) but the

market capitalization of the rubber tree plantation

operator, Phuoc Hoa Rubber (PHR), is now

trading below USD200m. (Please see table 6 on

the next page).

Valuation is rich

Since the market gave back its quarter-to-date

gain, the Ho Chi Minh exchange PE stayedsideways, trading at 23.8x historic earnings. If our

assumption of 20% EPS growth is correct, the 12-

month forward PE will reach 19.1x and 2010 PE

at 15x. This is significantly more expensive than

its peers like Thailand (12m fwd PE trading a

11.4x), China (trading at 14.7x) and Indonesia

(14.6x) and Philippines (15x).

Stay bearish

We see fewer growth catalysts in Vietnam thanother markets. The liquidity of the Vietnamese

stock market is still a concern for most foreign

investors. Therefore, we do not think Vietnam

deserves a premium over its Asian peers.

Some argue that the property sector has

rebounded as a number of real estate companies

have revised up their earning targets, but we are

sceptical. According to some data that CBRE

published, most of the real estate transactions

concentrated on the low- and mid-end projects.

Office rents for both grade A and grade B offices

fell between 6-10% over the past quarter. While

some companies might very well keep pace with

the global recovery, we think they will still be

cautious on capital expenditures. If construction

companies jumped to launching new development

projects at the first sign of recovery, we are wary

that might be a premature decision that will lead

to over-supply later on.

And according to Viet Nam News, the Ministry of

Industry and Trade told the media that many steel

3. Foreign net buying of Vietnamese equities 4. Foreign share of turnover, HCM Exchange

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

USD

m

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

07 08 09

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg (Up to Nov 6, 09) Source: HSBC, Bloomberg (Up to Nov 6, 09)


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factories lack a sufficient amount of scrap steel to

continue production at a high level while the

Ministry of Construction had scrapped four

cement projects since they did not meet the

requirements of the nations Cement Industry

Development Plan. In addition, many power plant

operators were unable to obtain financing to stay

afloat. The next positive news might potentially

be the New Year Holidays, when consumption

and export demand for foodstuff and agricultural

commodities pick up. But between now and then,

we do not anticipate much supporting news in

Vietnam that justifies investors entering the

market at a valuation premium over other more

promising markets.

Jacqueline Tse


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6. Key valuation data for the largest listed Vietnamese stocks (market cap > USD 200mn)

Code Name Industry Subgroup Exchange Mkt cap(USD m)

Ave dailyt/over

(USDm)

Foreignownership

Foreignlimit

Room forforeignbuying

(USDm)

PE Chg 3M

VCB JOINT STOCK COMMERCIAL BANK Commer Banks Non-US HCM 3,524 3.11 2% 9% 251 n/a -14%CTG VIETNAM JOINT STOCK COMMERCIAL

BANKCommer Banks Non-US HCM 2,193 1.38 0% 11% 228 n/a -24%

ACB ASIA COMMERCIAL BANK (HN) Commer Banks Non-US Hanoi 1,942 5.85 30% 30% - 10.5 -13%

VNM VIETNAM DAIRY PRODUCTS Food-Dairy Products HCM 1,721 2.59 44% 46% 32 23.1 14%

EIB VIETNAM EXPORT-IMPORTCOMMERCIAL

Commer Banks Non-US HCM 1,384 0.00 26% 30% 61 24.6 n/a

HAG HOANG ANH GIA LAI Real Estate Oper/Develop HCM 1,195 7.38 20% 49% 343 27.7 44%

BVH BAO VIET GROUP Multi-line Insurance HCM 1,171 0.76 14% 49% 415 n/a -25%

PVF PETROVIETNAM JOINT STOCKFINANCE CORPORATION

Finance-Invest Bnkr/Brkr HCM 1,092 2.14 13% 30% 183 314.0 -26%

DPM PETROVIETNAM FERTILIZER ANDCHEMICALS

Chemicals-Diversified HCM 942 1.97 21% 49% 262 11.0 -17%

VIC VINCOM JOINT STOCK COMPANY Real Estate Oper/Develop HCM 899 0.59 6% 52% 415 135.8 68%

STB SAIGON THUONG TIN COMMERCIAL Commer Banks Non-US HCM 888 10.91 30% 30% 0 18.3 -8%

HPG HOA PHAT GROUP Miscellaneous Manufactur HCM 847 5.94 32% 49% 146 14.0 -3%

SSI SAI GON SECURITIES INC. Finance-Invest Bnkr/Brkr HCM 824 14.72 46% 49% 29 43.7 16%

PVD PETROVIETNAM DRILING AND WELLSERVICES

Oil-Field Services HCM 818 1.94 26% 49% 186 11.3 -3%

KBC KINHBAC CITY DEVELOPMENT Bldg-Residential/Commer Hanoi 814 5.31 13% 49% 296 49.2 103%

FPT THE FPT CORPORATION Telecommunication Equip HCM 693 2.36 38% 49% 72 13.3 1%VCG VIETNAM CONSTRUCTION AND

IMPORT EXPORTBuilding&Construct-Misc Hanoi 663 9.13 3% 49% 305 30.2 82%

ITA TAN TAO INVESTMENT INDUSTRYCORPORATION

Real Estate Oper/Develop HCM 502 3.35 29% 49% 100 27.7 10%

PPC PHA LAI THERMAL POWER JOINTSTOCK COMPANY

Electric-Generation HCM 481 1.38 20% 49% 142 -34.9 -22%

SJS SONG DA URBAN AND INDUSTRIALZONE INVESTMENT ANDDEVELOPMENT

Building&Construct-Misc HCM 419 5.30 25% 49% 103 57.3 26%

VPL VINPEARL JOINT STOCK COMPANY Resorts/Theme Parks HCM 414 0.03 18% 49% 129 182.1 -16%

DIG DIC CORP Building&Construct-Misc HCM 413 n/a 14% 49% 146 15.3 n/a

PVS PETRO OID TECHNIQUE Transport-Services Hanoi 381 1.93 12% 49% 139 10.0 -6%

SHB SAIGON HANOI COMMERCIAL BANK(HN)

Commer Banks Non-US Hanoi 324 3.78 3% 30% 86 27.6 -17%

VSH VINH SON SONG HINH HYDROPOWER Electric-Generation HCM 285 1.61 26% 49% 65 12.8 0%

KDC KINH DO CORPORATION Food-Baking HCM 284 1.78 29% 50% 59 -53.8 52%

PVX CTCP XAY LAP DAU KHI VIETNAM (HN) Building&Construct-Misc Hanoi 269 0.00 0% 49% 131 22.8 n/a

REE REFRIFERATION ELECTRONICCALENGINEERING

Appliances HCM 243 6.25 36% 49% 31 -24.8 -2%

GMD GENERAL FORWARDING ANDAGENCY Transport-Services HCM 237 5.67 24% 49% 60 -20.1 29%

BCI BINH CHANH CONSTRUCTION ANDINVESTMENT


HCM HO CHI MINH CITY SECURITIESCORPORATION

Finance-Invest Bnkr/Brkr HCM 203 2.09 43% 49% 12 130.6 17%

CII HO CHI MINH CITY INFRASTRUCTUREINVESTMENT

Public Thoroughfares HCM 201 4.40 33% 49% 31 17.5 26%


6. Key valuation data for the largest listed Vietnamese stocks (market cap > USD 200m

Code Name Industry Subgroup Exchange Mkt capm)

Ave dailyt/over

(USDm)

Foreignownership

Foreignlimit

Room forforeignbuying

(USDm)

PE Chg 3M

VCB JOINT STOCK COMMERCIAL BANK Commer Banks Non-US HCM 3,524 3.11 2% 9% 251 n/a -14%CTG VIETNAM JOINT STOCK COMMERCIAL

BANKCommer Banks Non-US HCM 2,193 1.38 0% 11% 228 n/a -24%

ACB ASIA COMMERCIAL BANK (HN) Commer Banks Non-US Hanoi 1,942 5.85 30% 30% - 10.5 -13%

VNM VIETNAM DAIRY PRODUCTS Food-Dairy Products HCM 1,721 2.59 44% 46% 32 23.1 14%

EIB VIETNAM EXPORT-IMPORTCOMMERCIAL

Commer Banks Non-US HCM 1,384 0.00 26% 30% 61 24.6 n/a

HAG HOANG ANH GIA LAI Real Estate Oper/Develop HCM 1,195 7.38 20% 49% 343 27.7 44%

BVH BAO VIET GROUP Multi-line Insurance HCM 1,171 0.76 14% 49% 415 n/a -25%

PVF PETROVIETNAM JOINT STOCKFINANCE CORPORATION

Finance-Invest Bnkr/Brkr HCM 1,092 2.14 13% 30% 183 314.0 -26%

DPM PETROVIETNAM FERTILIZER ANDCHEMICALS

Chemicals-Diversified HCM 942 1.97 21% 49% 262 11.0 -17%

VIC VINCOM JOINT STOCK COMPANY Real Estate Oper/Develop HCM 899 0.59 6% 52% 415 135.8 68%

STB SAIGON THUONG TIN COMMERCIAL Commer Banks Non-US HCM 888 10.91 30% 30% 0 18.3 -8%

HPG HOA PHAT GROUP Miscellaneous Manufactur HCM 847 5.94 32% 49% 146 14.0 -3%

SSI SAI GON SECURITIES INC. Finance-Invest Bnkr/Brkr HCM 824 14.72 46% 49% 29 43.7 16%

PVD PETROVIETNAM DRILING AND WELLSERVICES

Oil-Field Services HCM 818 1.94 26% 49% 186 11.3 -3%

KBC KINHBAC CITY DEVELOPMENT Bldg-Residential/Commer Hanoi 814 5.31 13% 49% 296 49.2 103%

FPT THE FPT CORPORATION Telecommunication Equip HCM 693 2.36 38% 49% 72 13.3 1%VCG VIETNAM CONSTRUCTION AND

IMPORT EXPORTBuilding&Construct-Misc Hanoi 663 9.13 3% 49% 305 30.2 82%

ITA TAN TAO INVESTMENT INDUSTRYCORPORATION

Real Estate Oper/Develop HCM 502 3.35 29% 49% 100 27.7 10%

PPC PHA LAI THERMAL POWER JOINTSTOCK COMPANY

Electric-Generation HCM 481 1.38 20% 49% 142 -34.9 -22%

SJS SONG DA URBAN AND INDUSTRIALZONE INVESTMENT ANDDEVELOPMENT


VPL VINPEARL JOINT STOCK COMPANY Resorts/Theme Parks HCM 414 0.03 18% 49% 129 182.1 -16%

DIG DIC CORP Building&Construct-Misc HCM 413 n/a 14% 49% 146 15.3 n/a

PVS PETRO OID TECHNIQUE Transport-Services Hanoi 381 1.93 12% 49% 139 10.0 -6%

SHB SAIGON HANOI COMMERCIAL BANK(HN)

Commer Banks Non-US Hanoi 324 3.78 3% 30% 86 27.6 -17%

VSH VINH SON SONG HINH HYDROPOWER Electric-Generation HCM 285 1.61 26% 49% 65 12.8 0%

KDC KINH DO CORPORATION Food-Baking HCM 284 1.78 29% 50% 59 -53.8 52%

PVX CTCP XAY LAP DAU KHI VIETNAM (HN) Building&Construct-Misc Hanoi 269 0.00 0% 49% 131 22.8 n/a

REE REFRIFERATION ELECTRONICCALENGINEERING

Appliances HCM 243 6.25 36% 49% 31 -24.8 -2%

GMD GENERAL FORWARDING ANDAGENCY Transport-Services HCM 237 5.67 24% 49% 60 -20.1 29%

BCI BINH CHANH CONSTRUCTION ANDINVESTMENT


HCM HO CHI MINH CITY SECURITIESCORPORATION

Finance-Invest Bnkr/Brkr HCM 203 2.09 43% 49% 12 130.6 17%

CII HO CHI MINH CITY INFRASTRUCTUREINVESTMENT

Public Thoroughfares HCM 201 4.40 33% 49% 31 17.5 26%



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Since the start of the month,VGB yields have

risen 50-100bp to 10.30% and 10.90% (mid)for

the 2yr and 5yr VGBs, respectively, with a

steepening bias as onshore banks and the few

remaining foreign investors sold roughly

VND2.5-3.5trn in holdings during October. This

rise in quoted yields has widened the spread

between secondary market yields versus the

primary market. In its 10 November underwriting,

the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) maintained cut-

off yields of 9.20%, 9.50% and 9.60% for the 2yr,

3yr and 5yr VGBs, respectively, resulting in

another failed sale1.

Although the stresses to the local bond marketthat we have discussed in depth in previous

editions of the Vietnam Monitor such as

liquidity tightness, financial repression and credit

rationing are still of elevated concern, these

factors are being exacerbated by reignited selling

pressures in the FX market (see FX Strategy

section). Concerns over a widening current

1

Year-to-date, the SBV has sold just an est. VND7.5trn

through conventional auctions and underwritings out of a total

2009 planned deficit of VND87.3trn

account deficit combined with renewed market

speculation of imminent USD/VND band-

widening despite assurance from authorities

has spurred importers to pre-emptively buy

foreign exchange, including gold, to meet 2010

external requirements as well as meet year-end

liquidity needs.

The second major development for the bond

market is the meeting of the National Assembly

(NA), which has produced several key

policy decisions.

First, the NA has approved key 2010

targets: Socioeconomic development goals

include a growth target (6.5%), inflation (7%)

and export growth (6%). The NA also

approved a FY10 budget deficit of up to 6.2%

(VND120trn), a moderation from an official

FY09 budget deficit of 7% of GDP2. FY10

expenditures are estimated at VND582trn (of

which VND200trn is a part of a second

2

In contrast, HSBC Economics and the World Bank forecast

fiscal slippage resulting in a FY09 budget deficit of 8% and

10.3% of GDP, respectively

Fixed Income Strategy

We see 2yr VGB yields rising 70bp to 11.00% by Vietnamese

Tet in mid-February

Our bearish view is reinforced by tightening VND liquidity, which is

likely to persist given the extended subsidised loan programme

To this, we add an element of short-term skittishness in the FX

market, which may accelerate the increase in bond yields


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stimulus package) while revenues are

projected at VND463trn. While borrowing

requirements are relatively lower, the scarcity

of domestic funding sources under

tightening domestic liquidity conditions will

continue to encumber the placement of

government debt (VGBs, VDBs). The

reluctance by authorities to issue bonds closer

to market-clearing yield levels, if it persists,

would require the government to seek other

sources of funding.

Of the FY10 VND120trn budget deficit,

we expect the government to aim to

finance about 75% domestically. During

Jan-Sep 2009, according to MOF data,

the government has been able to borrow

VND41.5trn domestically, despite just an

est. VND7.5trn in observable auction and

underwriting results (see Fig. 2).

Authorities have commented on pursuing

additional onshore dollar bond issuance

(USD230m issued in Mar-2009).

However, the risk that onshore dollar

bond issuance could pressure USD/VND

higher raises the likelihood that the

government will seek offshore external

financing through multilateral channels

(VND10-11trn during FY09) or by way

of a global bond issue after a four-year

hiatus. In recent weeks, the government

has indicated an interest to issue a 10yr

USD1.0bn global bond by early 2010.

While a higher share of external

commercial borrowings is generally

supportive for the domestic bond market,

in the case of Vietnam, it is less

straightforward given higher debt

obligations (in VND terms) in the event

of volatility in the FX markets.

Subsidized lending programme is

extended: The government-directed loan

programme which was set to expire in Dec-

2009 and has provided VND420trn in new

loans since Feb-2009 has been extended

through Dec-2010. However, the government

has slashed the interest rate subsidy from

4ppts to 2ppts, with some preferred industries

allowed to borrow at the original 4ppt-rate

subsidy through Mar-2010. This gradual

reduction in the interest rate subsidy which

would cost VND7trn appears to be borne

out of dual objectives of: tempering credit

growth (which could lead to inflation

pressures) while at the same time allow the

flow of credit to avert a refinancing shock

that could interfere with economic growth and

year-end liquidity demand towards the

Christmas and Tet holidays.

The continuation of the subsidised loan

programme, however, is likely to perpetuate and

exacerbate already tight domestic liquidityconditions. This year, rapid credit expansion

(33.3% y-t-d to October versus the official target

of 30%) has outpaced deposit growth (+25.7% y-

t-d) and this has intensified competition for

deposits. This is reflected in a gradual increase in

VND deposit rates towards the 10.5% bank

lending rate cap to corporates, which has

compressed bank net interest margins (NIMs) and

eroded profitability (the SBV has said it could

intervene if deposit rates rise above 10%). Capitaladequacy rules relating to loan-deposit ratios and

charter capital have also heightened bank demand

for capital3.

3In August, the SBV has directed banks to decrease the

percentage of short-term (12mths) from 40% to 30%. Secondly,

non-joint stock commercial banks (JSCBs) must raise charter

capital to at least VND2trn by the end ofthis year while

JSCBs have until end-2010 to raise charter capital to VND3trn.


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Scarcity of VND funds has been reflected in the

interbank market where the O/N call money has

strayed from the official SBV benchmark rates

(5% discount rate). In November, the O/N call

money rate reached 7.5% the highest since Dec-

2008 in spite of a substantial VND40trn in

liquidity injections by the SBV through open

market operations that the interbank is

increasingly becoming reliant on.

Market outlookOur bearish view on VGBs is reinforced by

continued VND liquidity tightness, which

after the extension of the subsidised loan

programme is likely to persist. To this, we

add the element of short-term skittishness in

the FX market, which could accelerate the

increase in VGB yields in the secondary

market. In the September edition ofVietnam

Monitor, we have also pointed to incipient

inflation pressures and possible SBV rate hikesduring 1H10 (seeEconomics section).

In the near term, we do not expect the SBV to

raise primary market cut-off yields sufficiently

enough to catch-up with those in the secondary

market (since early September, cut-off yields have

risen just 30bp versus the 50-100bp rise in the

secondary market). In contrast, we see VGB

quoted yields continuing to diverge from the SBV

target yields. Due to the aforementioned risk

factors, we move forward our 2yr and 5yr

VGB yield forecast to 11.00% and 11.50%,

respectively, by the time of the Vietnamese

Tet New Year in mid-February.

Virgil Esguerra

1. VGB yield forecasts

_____________Yields (mid) _______________Current + 1mth + 3mths + 6mths + 12mths

New 2yr 10.30 10.50 11.00 11.50 12.005yr 10.90 11.20 11.50 12.00 12.00

Prior(Sep-2009)

2yr - 10.00 10.20 11.00 12.00

5yr - 10.00 10.20 10.50 11.00

Source: HSBC

2. State budget balance, financing (VNDtr)

2008 2009

(1st est.2008) (Plan 2009) 1-3Q09GDP 1,490 1,813 1,158Total revenues and grants 399 390 288Total exp. (exclude principalpayment)

439 457 324

Primary deficit (31) (53) (22)- Def icit /GDP (%) -2.1% -2.9% -1.9%

Principal payment 35 35 26

Total financing (net) 31 53 22Of which:Domestic (net) 23 43 21- Issued 51 71 41

- Of which:- Government bonds - - 8

- Onshore USD bonds(USD230m)

- - 4

- Unexplained - - 30

- Repayed 28 28 20External (net) 8 10 1- Issued 15 16 6- Repayed 7 6 5Overall deficit (grossissuance)

(66) (87) (48)

- Deficit/GDP (%) 5.0% 4.8% -4.1%

Unbalance expenditures,revenues

31 47 34

On lending 12 26 9

Source: MOF, HSBC
http://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=x4q1lt882m&n=250181.PDFhttp://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=x4q1lt882m&n=250181.PDFhttp://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=x4q1lt882m&n=250181.PDFhttp://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=x4q1lt882m&n=250181.PDFhttp://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=x4q1lt882m&n=250181.PDFhttp://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=x4q1lt882m&n=250181.PDF


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Following the emergence of speculative behaviour

in the onshore gold market, the central bank this

week repealed a ban on gold imports. A shortage

of gold onshore seems to have led to an onshore

price premium, which encouraged speculative

demand for USDs, and drove the USD-VNDpremium in the NDF market out to as much as

5%. While re-allowing gold imports is likely to

stabilise FX market dynamics in the short term,

this is unlikely to completely remove depreciation

pressure from the VND.

It seems we are back in a situation not too

dissimilar to early 2008 domestic monetary

policy is too loose, and this is showing up in,

among other places, pressure on the currency to

depreciate. As argued in our economics section:

the deterioration in the trade balance has been

stark, and this is now approaching the highs

of 2008;

subsidised bank lending is 24% of GDP this

year;

the budget deficit is likely to be around 8% of

GDP this year and interest rates were cut by

7ppts; and

the inflation pulse (3m-on-3m annualised

change) has increased to more that 7%.

The deterioration in the trade deficit is of

particular concern. Domestic policy has not been

tightened at all at this point, and yet import

growth is running well ahead of export growth.

Even if policy was tightened immediately,

therefore, some further deterioration in the trade

deficit would seem almost certain. With domestic

inflation picking up, there is little surprise that the

VND is suffering from insufficient demand.

1. Vietnam trade

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Exports Imports

%yoy, 3m mav

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

In short, the re-allowance of gold imports has

stabilised the VNDs depreciation premium in the

NDF market (Chart 2). The underlying

fundamentals, however, remain poor.

FX Strategy

Depreciation pressure has intensified, and re-allowing gold

imports will not sustainably reduce the paucity of VND demand

The longer monetary tightening is delayed, the greater the risk

that the market becomes destabilised

Either way, expect VND depreciation pressure to persist


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Depreciation pressure is almost certain to persist

in the near term, even if policy tightening is

delivered in the near term. The longer tightening

is delayed, however, the greater the risk that

destabilising speculation again emerges in the

currency. Either way, expect further VND

depreciation.

2. VND premium from band ceiling (% of spot)

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%5%

6%

Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09

NDF fix less spot USD-VND

Source: HSBC, Reuters

Richard Yetsenga


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Disclosure appendix

Analyst certification

Each analyst whose name appears as author of an individual chapter or individual chapters of this report certifies that the views

about the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) or any other views or forecasts expressed in the chapter(s) of which (s)he is author

accurately reflect his/her personal views and that no part of his/her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related

to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) contained therein.

Important disclosuresStock ratings and basis for financial analysis

HSBC believes that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions, which

depend largely on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations.

Given these differences, HSBC has two principal aims in its equity research: 1) to identify long-term investment opportunities

based on particular themes or ideas that may affect the future earnings or cash flows of companies on a 12 month time horizon;

and 2) from time to time to identify short-term investment opportunities that are derived from fundamental, quantitative,

technical or event-driven techniques on a 0-3 month time horizon and which may differ from our long-term investment rating.

HSBC has assigned ratings for its long-term investment opportunities as described below.

This report addresses only the long-term investment opportunities of the companies referred to in the report. As and when

HSBC publishes a short-term trading idea the stocks to which these relate are identified on the website at

www.hsbcnet.com/research. Details of these short-term investment opportunities can be found under the Reports section of thiswebsite.

HSBC believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's

existing holdings and other considerations. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating

systems to describe their recommendations. Investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research

report. In addition, because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views, investors

should carefully read the entire research report and should not infer its contents from the rating. In any case, ratings should not

be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice.

Rating definitions for long-term investment opportunities

Stock ratings

HSBC assigns ratings to its stocks in this sector on the following basis:

For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the risk free rate for that stock's domestic, or as appropriate,

regional market and the relevant equity risk premium established by our strategy team. The price target for a stock represents

the value the analyst expects the stock to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon is 12 months. For a

stock to be classified as Overweight, the implied return must exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the

next 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the

stock must be expected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months (or 10

percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral.

Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation of coverage, change of volatility

status or change in price target). Notwithstanding this, and although ratings are subject to ongoing management review,

expected returns will be permitted to move outside the bands as a result of normal share price fluctuations without necessarily

triggering a rating change.

*A stock will be classified as volatile if its historical volatility has exceeded 40%, if the stock has been listed for less than 12

months (unless it is in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expects significant volatility. However,


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stocks which we do not consider volatile may in fact also behave in such a way. Historical volatility is defined as the pastmonth's average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating,

however, volatility has to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stock's status to change.

Prior to this, from 7 June 2005 HSBC applied a ratings structure which ranked the stocks according to their notional target

price vs current market price and then categorised (approximately) the top 40% as Overweight, the next 40% as Neutral and

the last 20% as Underweight. The performance horizon is 2 years. The notional target price was defined as the mid-point of the

analysts' valuation for a stock.

From 15 November 2004 to 7 June 2005, HSBC carried no ratings and concentrated on long-term thematic reports which

identified themes and trends in industries, but did not make a conclusion as to the investment action that potential investors

should take.

Prior to 15 November 2004, HSBC's ratings system was based upon a two-stage recommendation structure: a combination ofthe analysts' view on the stock relative to its sector and the sector call relative to the market, together giving a view on the

stock relative to the market. The sector call was the responsibility of the strategy team, set in co-operation with the analysts.

For other companies, HSBC showed a recommendation relative to the market. The performance horizon was 6-12 months. The

target price was the level the stock should have traded at if the market accepted the analysts' view of the stock.

Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities

As of 12 November 2009, the distribution of all ratings published is as follows:

Overweight (Buy) 41% (18% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)

Neutral (Hold) 38% (18% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)

Underweight (Sell) 21% (15% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)

Analysts are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking revenues.

For disclosures in respect of any company, please see the most recently published report on that company available at

www.hsbcnet.com/research.

* HSBC Legal Entities are listed in the Disclaimer below.

Additional disclosures

1 This report is dated as at 12 November 2009.2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 11 November 2009, unless otherwise indicated in the report.3 HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its

Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research

operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Chinese Wallprocedures are in place between the Investment Banking and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/orprice sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.


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Disclaimer

* Legal entities as at 22 October 2008

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Corporation Limited, Hong Kong; 'TW' HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited; 'CA' HSBC

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Burkhardt AG, Dusseldorf; 000 HSBC Bank (RR), Moscow; 'IN' HSBC Securities and Capital Markets

(India) Private Limited, Mumbai; 'JP' HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo; 'EG' HSBC Securities

Egypt S.A.E., Cairo; 'CN' HSBC Investment Bank Asia Limited, Beijing Representative Office; The

Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore branch; The Hongkong and

Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch; HSBC Securities (South Africa)(Pty) Ltd, Johannesburg; 'GR' HSBC Pantelakis Securities S.A., Athens; HSBC Bank plc, London,

Madrid, Milan, Stockholm, Tel Aviv, 'US' HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, New York; HSBC Yatirim

Menkul Degerler A.S., Istanbul; HSBC Mxico, S.A., Institucin de Banca Mltiple, Grupo Financiero

HSBC, HSBC Bank Brasil S.A. - Banco Mltiplo, HSBC Bank Australia Limited, HSBC Bank

Argentina S.A., HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited.

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without the prior written permission of The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited. MICA (P) 177/08/2009


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Multi-assetGlobalPhilip PooleGlobal Head of Emerging Markets Research+44 20 7991 5641 [email protected]

EconomicsLatin America

Jonathan HeathChief Economist, Latin America+52 55 5721 2176 [email protected] D Blazquez+54 11 4348 5759 [email protected] Dominguez+52 55 5721 2172 [email protected] Finkman+54 11 4344 8144 [email protected] G Gomes+55 11 33718183 [email protected] Loes+55 11 3371 8184 [email protected] Martin+52 55 5721 2164 [email protected] Morgenstern+54 11 4130 9229 [email protected] Hongbin

+852 2822 2025 [email protected] Neumann+852 2822 4556 [email protected] Prior-Wandesforde+65 6239 0840 [email protected] Chan+852 2996 6975 [email protected] Shiraishi+886 81 5203 3802 [email protected] Wong+852 2996 6917 [email protected] Sampson+44 20 7991 5651 [email protected] Ozturk+44 20 7991 6045 [email protected] Morozov+7 49 5721 1577 [email protected] Ulgen

+90 212 376 4619 [email protected] Williams+971 4 423 6925 [email protected]

CreditDilip Shahani+852 2822 4520 [email protected] Chan+852 2822 4522 [email protected] Chan+852 2822 3232 [email protected] Fedotova+44 20 7992 3707 [email protected] Mahendran+852 2822 4521 [email protected] Ellen Olson+852 2822 4524 [email protected] Zhang+852 2822 4523 [email protected] Angammana, CFA+44 20 7991 5431 [email protected]

CurrencyMarjorie Hernandez+1 212 525 4109 [email protected] Hui+852 2822 4340 [email protected] Kojodjojo+852 2996 6568 [email protected] Wardle+1 212 525 3345 [email protected] Yetsenga+852 2996 6565 [email protected]

Fixed IncomePieter Van Der Schaft+852 2822 4277 [email protected] Esguerra+852 2822 4665 [email protected] Goldberg

Head of Latin America Fixed Income Strategy+1 212 525 8729 [email protected] Kemen+1 212 525 4326 [email protected] Mrtinez-Cruz+52 55 5721 2380 [email protected] M Yellati+1 212 525 6787 [email protected]

Equity

CEEMEAEuropeWill ManuelHead of CEEMEA Company Research+44 20 7992 3602 [email protected] Lomax

Head of Equity Strategy, GEMs+44 20 7992 3712 [email protected] Baranski+44 20 7991 6782 [email protected] Drouet+44 20 7991 6827 [email protected] Fedoseev+44 20 7991 6831 [email protected] Lyssogorskaya+44 20 7992 3684 [email protected] Nijenhuis+44 20 7992 3680 [email protected] Redman+44 20 7991 6822 [email protected] AfricaUmulinga Karangwa+44 20 7992 3685 [email protected] Mballa-Ekobena+44 20 7991 6809 [email protected]

TurkeyCenk OrcanCo-Head of Turkey Equity Research+90 212 376 4614 [email protected] YurdagulCo-Head of Turkey Equity Research+90 212 376 4612 [email protected] Bayar+90 212 376 4617 [email protected] Hullu+90 212 376 4616 [email protected] Sengun+90 212 376 4615 [email protected] Shimei+972 3 710 1197 [email protected] Weisz+972 3 710 1198 [email protected] Arab Emirates

Kunal Bajaj+971 4 507 7458 [email protected] Lepper+971 4 423 6932 [email protected]

Ankur Khetawat+971 4 423 6930 [email protected] Kinsey+971 4 423 6928 [email protected]

Vikram Viswanathan+971 4 423 6931 [email protected]

EgyptAhmed Hafez Saad+202 2529 8436 [email protected] El Mehelmy+202 2529 8438 [email protected] Panicker+202 2529 8439 [email protected] Arabia

Tareq Alarifi+966 1 299 2105 [email protected]

Aybek Islamov+966 1 299 2102 [email protected]

Raj Sinha+966 1 299 2100 [email protected]

Aleksandar Stojanovski+966 1 299 2104 [email protected]

AsiaResearch ManagementChris Georgs+852 2996 6753 [email protected] van der Linde+852 2996 6575 [email protected] EstateLouisa Fok+852 2996 6629 [email protected] Kwok+852 2996 6918 [email protected] Narkar+91 22 3023 1474 [email protected] Wong+852 2996 6621 [email protected]

GEMs Research Team
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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BanksTodd DunivantHead of Banks, Asia-Pacific+852 2996 6599 [email protected] Agarwal+91 22 2268 1235 [email protected]

Sarah Hung+886 2 8725 6026 [email protected] Park+82 2 3706 8755 [email protected] Pun+852 2822 4396 [email protected] Wu+852 2996 6585 [email protected] Ho+852 2996 6593 [email protected] Lam+852 2822 4398 [email protected] Russell+852 2822 `4321 [email protected] Agrawal+91 22 2268 1243 [email protected]

Transport / ConglomeratesMark Webb+852 2996 6574 [email protected] Gupta+91 22 2268 1079 [email protected] Jain+852 2996 6717 [email protected] Lin+852 2996 6570 [email protected] Shahrim+852 2996 6976 [email protected] ResourcesDaniel Kang+852 2996 6669 [email protected] Chan+852 2996 6619 [email protected] Chiu+852 2822 4297 [email protected] Hong Xing Li

+852 2996 6941 [email protected] Mak+852 2822 4551 [email protected] Tsoi+852 2996 6620 [email protected] StrategyVivek Misra+91 80 3001 3699 [email protected] Sun+852 2822 4298 [email protected] Tse+852 2996 6602 [email protected]

Consumer & RetailJessie Guo+852 2996 6572 [email protected] Panthaki+91 22 2268 1240 [email protected] Yang+852 2822 4342 [email protected]

TMTTucker Grinnan+852 2822 4686 [email protected] C Pelayo+852 2822 4391 [email protected] Aggarwal+91 22 2268 1246 [email protected] Anderason+886 813 5203 3826 [email protected] Park+852 2822 6591 [email protected] Sharma+91 22 2268 1239 [email protected] Shing+852 2996 6751 [email protected] Su+8862 8725 6025 [email protected] Wang+8862 8725 6024 [email protected]

Wanli Wang+8862 8725 6020 [email protected] Yao+852 2822 4397 [email protected]

Small & Mid-capSuman Guliani+91 80 3001 3747 [email protected] Somani+91 22 2268 1245 [email protected] America

Patrick BoucherHead of Research, Americas+1 212 525 7632 [email protected] GartnerHead of Equity Research, Brazil+55 11 3371 8181 [email protected] Carlos MateosHead of Equity Research, Mexico+52 55 5721 3607 [email protected] Brands & RetailManisha A Chaudhry+1 212 525 3035 [email protected] J Chevez+1 212 525 5350 [email protected] Herrera+1 212 525 5126 [email protected] Maia+55 11 33718192 [email protected] Torres

+1 212 525 6972 [email protected] Watson+1 212 525 4905 [email protected] Galliano+1 212 525 5253 [email protected] Santiago+1 212 525 5418 [email protected] & LogisticsVanessa Ferraz+55 11 3371 8190 [email protected] Freiberger+55 11 3371 8197 [email protected] Salomon-KaramConstruction & Engineering/Infrastructure, Mexico+52 55 5721 2173 [email protected] Resources and EnergyJordi Dominguez

+1 212 525 3460 [email protected] Flores+1 212 525 3053 [email protected] Marquez+1 212 525 7669 [email protected] Pereira+55 11 3371 8203 [email protected] Redman+44 20 7991 6822 [email protected], Media & TechnologyRichard Dineen+1 212 525 6707 [email protected] E Gonzalez+52 55 5721 2580 [email protected]

Equity StrategyGarry EvansGlobal Head of Equity Strategy+852 2996 6916 [email protected] LomaxHead of Equity Strategy, GEMs+44 20 7992 3712 [email protected] AguilieraStrategist+52 55 5721 2379 [email protected]

GEMs Research Team (continued)
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

Documents

Vietnam monitor 11/2009