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Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2013 ISSN: 2277 128X

International Journal of Advanced Research in Computer Science and Software Engineering Research Paper Available online at: www.ijarcsse.com

Village-level Drought Vulnerability Assessment Using

Geographic Information System (GIS) Sreedhar Ganapuram Dr. R. Nagarajan

PhD student , CSRE Asso. Professor, CSRE

Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Mumbai Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Mumbai

Dr. Venkataraman Balaji,

Director Technology and Knowledge Management

Common wealth of learning, Canada

Abstract— Drought occurs due to a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually for a season

or more, affecting virtually all climate regimes. This deficiency results in water shortage for some activities, group or

environmental sector, causing economic losses and significant damage to human lives. Furthermore, water demand

for growing human population, industrial development and agriculture has increased significantly in developing

countries threatening the outcome of major environmental, social and economic problems. With natural calamities

such as drought becoming a recurrent phenomenon, science-based interventions using GIS-based tools to predict the

severity of drought in an area can potentially contribute to mitigation efforts.

Keywords— water demand, GIS, micro-level drought vulnerability assessment

I. INTRODUCTION

Drought is a natural hazard that is related to a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually for a

season or more, affecting virtually all climate zones. Drought is a regional phenomenon whose characteristics will vary

significantly among regions [1]. This deficiency results in water shortage for some activities, group or environmental

sector, causing economic losses and significant damage to human lives. Furthermore, water demand for growing human

population, industrial development and agriculture has increased significantly in developing countries threatening the

outcome of major environmental, social and economic problems. It also has significant impact on agriculture and socio-

economic conditions affecting millions of people in the semi-arid tropics. Drought is a critical phenomenon of climatic

change whose occurrence, duration, intensity and spatial extent is difficult to quantify ([2],[3]).

The impact of drought can be minimized by proper water management, allocation and by implementing

alternative employment schemes. The basic water requirement estimates at local, regional and basin scale are critical for

proper water allocation and planning [4]. The persistent drought condition experienced by rural villages in the last decade

in semi-arid tropics of India was studied by ICRISAT. ICRISAT developed a framework for Village level studies to

assess the long term socio-economic aspects in ten villages located in semi-arid tropics of India. These studies show that

the farmers were regularly vulnerable to drought and the coping mechanisms involved are change in cropping patterns

from food crops to cash crops. However, the persistent drought conditions and increasing water scarcity decreased the

role of agriculture, threatening the livelihoods of the rural farmers. The study revealed that though agriculture is in dire

situation, the non-agricultural sources of livelihood have led to significant improvement ([5]; [6]). Moreover, it was

reported by Bantilan and Anupama, 2006[6], that several changes have occurred in the village economies of the semi-

arid tropics due to the impact of globalization of markets, rising population densities, diversification of rural incomes,

degradation of arable land resources, and changes in the rainfall pattern. This resulted in persistent drought, and

feminization of agriculture. The assessment of these recent changes in rainfall pattern, population needs and degradation

of arable land could provide valuable insights for future planning and agricultural development.

Vulnerability in dryland agriculture in the semi-arid tropics is distinguished as a result of high incidence of

rainfall related production risk. In terms of agriculture, one of the major impacts of drought in rural areas is decreased

productivity due to non-cultivation of cultivable area. In addition, livestock production losses and growth losses

aggravate due to the farmer‟s inability to protect his animals during drought. In the semi-arid tropics, natural resources

like land and water are continually exploited due to degradation of land resources, climate variability, water scarcity and

drought leading to many changes in the villages. Consecutively, for village level planning and development it is essential

to study the agro-economic variables like rainfall, cultivated area, crops grown as well as rising population demands [5].

Village ecosystems are the most complex units as the livelihoods of the communities depend on availability of natural

resources and various demands. Hence, estimation of basic water uses at village level will be of great use in water

allocation and management. Further, the need for water in semi-arid tropics is gradually increasing due to population

growth and economic development, thus emphasizing the need for water management by taking into consideration the

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March - 2013, pp. 1-10


available water resources [7]. Therefore, the study of variation and trend in rainfall and village water use and availability

are paramount to conserve village ecosystems.

Amarasinghe et al., 2004[4] estimated the spatial variation in water supply and demand for river basins of India.

Furthermore, they classified river basins according to water scarcities and crop production surplus and deficits to address

issues related to future water supply and demand projections. The spatial extent and variation of drought is not only

dependent on rainfall occurrences but also on surface and groundwater movement and availability. Moreover, improper

water allocation aggravates the drought vulnerability. Consecutively, the impact of drought is more intense in rural

regions than elsewhere. In developing and using water resources, priority has to be given to meet the basic needs of a

village as well as safeguarding of ecosystems. The idea is to make available minimum resource requirements for certain

human and ecological functions, and the allocation of sufficient resources to meet those needs. In general “basic water

requirements” is defined in terms of quantity for four basic human needs as drinking water for survival, water for human

hygiene, water for sanitation services and modest household needs for preparing food, as well as the water required for

growing food and natural ecosystem. Different sectors of society use water for different purposes like drinking, growing

food, hygiene, livestock rearing and so on [8].

The most important use of water includes the water required to grow the food necessary for human survival and

livestock rearing. The actual water requirement to grow food is dependent on factors like crop type, cultivated area,

season and so on. Apart from these basic requirements, there are other sectors related to industrial and commercial use of

water that reflects human wants rather than basic needs [8]. A study by Mokgope et al, 2001[9] conducted on water

resources and water supply for rural communities in the Sand river catchment, South Africa revealed that water is

required not only for drinking, washing, cooking and sanitation but also to promote productive uses of water at the

household level, and village-based enterprises including small-scale irrigation. Village based enterprises include

activities such as community gardens and raising poultry. The water requirements for the crops grown, domestic use and

livestock demand were estimated in Xizhuang watershed in Yunnan Province, China[10] by using recommended

consumption values. Vedula et al, 1985[11] estimated the crop water requirements for assumed crops and cropping

patterns as per existing practice in the various taluks (Sub-districts) and irrigation water requirements of the various crops

based on the guide lines of the Water management division of the Ministry of Agriculture in Vedavati river basin, India.

Village water requirements of 21 villages of Adakkal sub-district of Mahabubnagar District were estimated to categorize

the drought vulnerability of each village based on surface water shortfall to meet the village requirements [12]. Rainfall

and water availability of each village are important inputs that limit the crop productivity in a particular location. Hence,

detailed analysis of rainfall and water requirements of each village is crucial for better agricultural and water resources

management which would lead to the village development.

Even with the advent of several novel technologies in forecast system, large regimes in peninsular India which

suffered a major drought in 2012 lasting into early2013 was not adequately forecasted at any level. Globally, there is

interest in helping national governments and agencies to develop drought management policies and monitoring systems

to provide early warning of the onset and ending of droughts, drought severity, and deliver information to the agriculture

community ([23],[24]). The objective of this study was to develop a methodology and assess the water demand and

availability to determine village drought vulnerability using GIS to support the government agencies and others involved

in agriculture in decision making.

II. MATERIALS AND METHOD

A. Study Area

The study area consists of Peddavagu and Ookachetti vagu basins (Fig. 1), tributaries of lower Krishna river basin

located in the southern telangana agro-climatic zone of the Mahabubnagar and Ranga Reddy districts of Andhra Pradesh,

south central India. The total geographical area of the basin is 4,353.2 Km2. lies between 77

o 28‟ 33.799” E to 78

o 13‟

31.134” E longitudes and 16o 11‟ 45.63” N to 17

o 8‟ 23.744” N latitudes. The basin‟s topography is mostly flat with

granitic hills in the upstream, has an elevation ranging from 185m to 637 m. The climate of this regions transitions from

a tropical to a subtropical climate. The climate of the basin is semi-arid with an average annual rainfall of 622

millimeters, received primarily during the monsoon period i.e. from June to October. Summers, which last from March to

May, are hot, with temperatures ranging from 27 to 41.5o Celsius. The winter spans from November to January, has

temperatures ranging from 16.9 to 19.1o Celsius. The main livelihood opportunities existing in the basin for rural

communities are agriculture, livestock rearing and allied activities. This region has two major cropping seasons, viz,

June-October (kharif) and November to March (rabi). The most important crop in the basin is paddy in kharif and

groundnut during rabi seasons.

Other most commonly cultivated crops consist of sorghum, pearl millet, finger millet, maize, groundnut, castor,

sunflower, pigeon pea and vegetables. Cultivation in kharif is mostly rainfed, while groundwater is used during rabi.

Levels of the groundwater in aquifer have been falling over the years because of exploitation of groundwater for

irrigation; this is further aggravated with lack of groundwater recharge due to scanty rainfall. Most bore wells run dry

soon after to a bad monsoon year moreover only those boreholes near drainage tanks and river streams rarely yield water.

Village level population data was obtained from 2001 census data. The livestock Population of cattle, buffalo, sheep and

goat and agriculture information like type of crops grown and acreage were obtained from respective Mandal Revenue

Office of Mahaboobnagar district.


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Fig. 1. Location map of study area includes four watersheds of lower Krishna basin, South India (Source for Krishna

Basin Boundary and stream: IMWI, Sri Lanka)

B. Method

1) Village Water Requirement Estimation: In this section, the total quantity of water required for each village was

quantified. The amount of water required for a village is the sum of different water uses like domestic water

requirements, Livestock water consumption, cultivation and industrial sectors ([12] , [13], [14],). During a

drought the water demand is primarily dependent on the water use of a village domestic, livestock and cultivation.

The detailed methodology used in estimating the water requirements were discussed in the following sections.

Domestic Water Requirement Estimation - Basic water requirements for domestic purpose are as follows:

minimum drinking water requirement for humans defined for maintaining human survival to maintain the water

balance in human beings, basic water requirements for sanitation defined for providing sanitation services by

providing access to clean water for disposing human wastes and bathing which has direct link with improved

health, and the water requirement for food preparation includes for cleaning and cooking [8]. The domestic water

requirements refer to the basic water needs of the population in each village. It includes primarily water for

drinking, cooking and hygiene (showers, bathing, washing etc.). Mokgope et al, 2001[9] estimated domestic

water needs based on population. The recommended water per person in urban areas is 135 liters per day and in

rural areas 40 liters per day [4]. The quantity of water required for each village per day, for kharif season, rabi

season and per annum was estimated as follows.

Quantity of water required per day, QH1= Total population of the village * 40 lts /day

Quantity of water required from June to October, QHk= 152 * QH1

Quantity of water required from November to March, QHr = 150 * QH1

Quantity of water required per annum for each village, QH = 365 * QH1

Livestock Water Requirement - Livestock is one of the most important livelihood opportunities of rural poor in

semi-arid tropics and developing countries ([15], [16]) like India. Hence, it is essential to have an estimation of

water required for provision of water for livestock rearing. Water requirement for livestock refers to the quantity

of water required for drinking and water in feed to support livestock production [17]. The water required for

livestock rearing depends on the number of animals and consumptive use per head [4]. The total livestock water

required for a village was assumed as the sum of water required for domestic animals like cattle, buffaloes, sheep,

Goat, Swine, and Poultry. Approximate water required considered for different animals as recommended in

Frasier and Hyers, 1983[18] in litres per day (lpd) are shown in table 1.

TABLE 1

DAILY WATER REQUIREMENT FOR VARIOUS LIVESTOCK

Livestock Daily water requirement (in litres per day -

lpd)

Cattle 85 lpd

Buffaloes 85 lpd

Sheep 10 lpd

Goats 10 lpd

Swine 15 lpd

Poultry 40 lpd per 100 birds

(Source: Frasier and Hyers, 1983[18])


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Quantity of water required for livestock consumption per day, QL1 = No of cattle * 85 + No of Buffaloes * 85 +

No of Sheep * 10 + No of Goats * 10 + No of Swine * 15 + No of birds * (40/100)

Quantity of water required for livestock consumption from June to October, QLk = 152 * QL1

Quantity of water required for livestock consumption from November to March, QLr = 150 * QL1

Quantity of water required for livestock consumption per annum, QL = 365 * QL1

Agricultural Water Use - The amount of water used for crop production in a growing season is called agriculture

water use [14]. Agricultural water use of a village was estimated based on the quantity of water required for

cultivation of different crops in a village during cropping seasons. The major crops cultivated during kharif

(June to Oct) and rabi (November to March) and their irrigation water requirements were used in the estimation

of village agricultural water requirements. In this major crops assumed in agriculture water use estimation were

paddy, sorghum, maize, wheat, finger millet (ragi), castor, cotton, and vegetables. The irrigation water

requirements of different crops per acre are shown in table 4.2.

TABLE 2

WATER CONSUMPTIVE USE FOR VARIOUS CROPS

Crops Irrigation (mm) Crops Irrigation (mm)

Paddy 1200 mm Wheat 450 mm

Sorghum 500 mm Maize 625 mm

Pearl millet (Bajra) 500 mm Sugarcane 2200 mm

Cotton 1100 mm Sunflower 210 mm

Miscellaneous crops like Groundnut, Tomato, Onion, Chillies, Castor,

Cabbage, Citrus, Pineapple, Sesame, Finger millet (ragi), Red Gram, Green

Gram and Horse Gram

500 mm

(Source: Michael, 1978[19]; Dakshinamurti et al., 1971[20]; Michael and Pandey, 1970[21]; Sally, 1968[22])

Quantity of water used for cultivation during Kharif season (QK) = paddy water demand + groundnut water use

+ Ragi water use + Vegetable water use

= No of Acres * 1200/1000 * 4046.9 + No of Acres * 500/1000 * 4046.9 + No of Acres * 500/1000 * 4046.9 +

No of Acres * 500/1000 * 4046.9

Similarly, Rabi season agriculture water use was estimated based on the standard water consumption values.

Quantity of water used for cultivation during Rabi season (QR) = water use for Paddy + water use for groundnut

+ water use for Ragi + water use for Vegetable cultivation.

Total Water Requirement estimation of a village- The total water use of a village was estimated as the sum of

domestic water use, livestock water use and agricultural water requirement that was estimated in above sections.

Further, this water use information was used to create a GIS database for mapping the spatial variation of water

use for domestic use, livestock and agriculture use during kharif, rabi and annual.

Spatial Village Water Use Mapping - The village maps obtained from census 2001 data was georeferenced and

boundaries were digitized using ArcGIS software. Furthermore, the water demand estimated for human

consumption, livestock and crops cultivation of each village in the above sections was entered as attribute data of

the village map. Consecutively, thematic maps showing the spatial variability of water demand for domestic,

livestock and cultivation were prepared. Thematic map showing the total water use of a village was also prepared.

2) Village Water availability – Model - Village water availability estimation enables us to understand the amount of

water available to meet the water requirements of the village. The water available to a village was quantified by

adopting a simple method proposed by Dileepkumar et al, 2007[12]. The total water available to a village can be

estimated by multiplying rainfall data and area of the village.

The total amount of water received in a year by the village in Cubic meters

= Area of the village in Sq m * Annual Rainfall in mm * 0.001 m/mm

The water thus received gets distributed as surface runoff, evapotranspiration and ground water recharge. For

estimating the water availability of a village it is essential to account the water that gets evaporated and rainfall-

runoff that accounts for surface water and groundwater.

3) Village Drought Vulnerability Mapping - Village drought vulnerability was determined by water budgeting of

each village. The village water budget was estimated by subtracting the total water use of each from the water

available in each village from rainfall surface runoff after accounting for evaporation of a village. Further each

village was categorized into very highly drought vulnerable, highly drought vulnerable, moderately drought

vulnerable, low and very low drought vulnerable regions based on the shortfall of runoff to meet village water

requirements and color coded into dark red, red, orange, yellow, light green and green.

III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

A. Water Use Estimation

Total water use of Peddavagu watershed is approximately about 641 Cubic meters per year (m3/yr). Estimations of

total water use for domestic, livestock and agriculture were calculated as discussed in the methodology. The major

portion of the water use of the basin is consumed by kharif crop cultivation followed by rabi crop cultivation. The total


March - 2013, pp. 1-10


water required for domestic, livestock, and agriculture use of the basin were estimated to be 27.86 million cu.m, 23.38

million cu.m and 1358.54 million cubic meters per annum respectively. The water required for each village for domestic,

livestock and agriculture are shown in fig. 2 to fig 6. The gross water required to meet various demands of the basin to

cope with drought situations is around 1409.8 cu.m. The total cultivable land in the basin is approximately 63.18 %, out

of this, kharif and rabi crop cultivated area is only 28.54% and 8.82% of the total basin area respectively. Around

30.36 % of the land is left fallow due to inadequate water supply either from rainfall as well as due to lack of irrigation

facilities. Additionally, approximately 351 million cubic meters of additional water supply is required to cultivate the

fallow lands during kharif or rabi season.

Fig 2. Spatial variation of village domestic water use per annum

Fig 3. Spatial variation of village livestock water use per annum


March - 2013, pp. 1-10


Fig 4. Spatial variation of village kharif water use

Fig 5. Spatial variation of village rabi water use


March - 2013, pp. 1-10


Fig 6. Spatial variation of total village water use

Fig 7. Runoff available for each village water use based on average annual rainfall estimated for each station


March - 2013, pp. 1-10


Fig 2 to 5 show the village-level spatial variation of water use for domestic, livestock, agricultural use during Kharif

and Rabi seasons and total water use in each village respectively. Village level domestic water use for drinking, hygiene

and cooking, livestock water use and agriculture water use were estimated in cubic meters using the standard

recommended values as discussed in methodology. Village water use, livestock water use and agriculture water use of

each village per annum was estimated. These values were further entered into the GIS database to map the spatial

variation as shown in fig 6. The dark brown colored villages indicate high water demand for different water use and light

brown color indicates lesser water use. The availability of information about the amount of water required for domestic

water, livestock water use and agricultural water use would be useful during critical situation to plan water supply.

The agriculture water use of different crops of the basin for Kharif season was estimated as discussed in methodology

section. Paddy was the highest water consuming crop grown in the basin despite of recurrent droughts in the region. The

total land cultivated during kharif season is approximately 28.5% of the total cultivable land. In spite of water shortages

due to erratic rainfall farmers cultivate water intensive paddy crops, lack of labour availability to cultivate other crops is

also another reason that is making the farmers to cultivate paddy. Around 30% of land is left uncultivated due to

inadequate rainfall or water supply.

B. Drought Vulnerability Mapping

Drought vulnerability of villages was determined using the water budget equations for each village. The village water

budget was estimated by subtracting total annual village water use (Fig. 6) estimated from annual runoff available for

each village (Fig. 7) after accounting for evapotranspiration losses in cubic meters. Based on the water budget of each

village, the vulnerability of each village to drought was categorized into very high, high, moderate, slight, low and very

low. The drought vulnerability was color coded in such a way that it can be interpreted or understood very easily by any

person shown in fig 8. Dark Red, light red, orange and yellow indicate very high, high, moderate and slightly drought

vulnerable regions based on average annual rainfall. Light green and green indicate low and very low drought

vulnerability but these regions are also prone to drought when severe drought events occur. The developed maps were

pilot tested in selected villages of Addakal mandal by installing rain gauge stations by measuring the rainfall. Results

showed that the drought vulnerability maps developed were in agreement with the rainfall data measured for validation.

Fig 8. Village Water budget and drought vulnerability mapping.

IV. CONCLUSIONS


March - 2013, pp. 1-10


Drought preparedness is an accepted priority of the Disaster Management Authority of India. It can be fostered

effectively using a blend of drought vulnerability assessment tools, in our case, derived from GIS and other ancillary data.

The drought vulnerability maps were developed keeping in mind the rural awareness programs, where the illiterate

farmers need to be explained about the maps. So, the maps were color coded in simple colors after quantifying the water

deficiencies of each village to meet the different water requirements as per the water availability. It was observed that the

maps developed were very easily understand by the different stakeholders and were well appreciated. Therefore, these

kind of maps should be integrated in a water development framework to help the planners and administrative officials to

thwart disaster and implement development programs.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

SUPPORT FROM THE NAIP OF ICAR TO ICRISAT IS GRATEFULLY ACKNOWLEDGED

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