VISCOSE RAYON in Technical Textiles and Nonwovens World Market Forecasts to 2010

VISCOSE RAYON in Technical Textiles and Nonwovens

World Market Forecasts to 2010

January 2003

David Rigby Associates Limited 24 Princes Road Heaton Moor Manchester SK4 3NQ

UK Tel: +44 161 975 5115 Fax: +44 161 442 3895

Email: [email protected] www.davidrigbyassociates.com

DRA's User Agreement 1 David Rigby Associates (DRA) makes available on the Internet its online market research in the form of reports, chapters of reports and tables of forecasts (the "Information”). The Information is available to authorised users ("Users”) for viewing and downloading via a web link. This current document, available on-line for viewing at all times, is the contract between DRA and User. By completing the registration process and placing an order the User agrees to be bound legally and to abide by this User Agreement. 2. The Information is copyrighted by DRA. All rights reserved. The purchase of a record at its list price from DRA's web site or from any other authorised seller entitles User to print a single copy of such a record. Other than the single printed copy as described in the preceding sentence, no part of the Information may be reproduced, stored, or redistributed in hardcopy or machine readable form, or otherwise without prior written authorisation from DRA. 3. Information obtained is for the exclusive use of User, or if User is a business, for the exclusive use of individuals at the same site as User. 4. If User has paid DRA or any other authorised seller of the Information in addition to the list price of the Information a further amount equal to 50% of the list price of the Information, but not otherwise, DRA grants User a Corporate Licence permitting use by any employees and any professional advisors of User, in each case solely to the extent that such use is exclusively for the benefit of User (and not further or otherwise) by distributing the Information through an intranet or similar centrally accessible facility. 5 For purposes of this Agreement, an "Information Professional" means one who is accessing Information on behalf of another entity or individual not employed by the Information Professional, such as a consulting firm or research firm. An Information Professional may access Information on behalf of a single customer who is also the user of the Information. Hard copies of the Information may be provided to the Information Professional's customer, provided that the Information Professional places DRA's copyright notice on the Information so provided. An Information Professional may not provide the same Information to a different customer without replicating the search and paying the full record charge therefore. 6. THE INFORMATION COMPRISES MARKET FORECASTS AND SIMILAR INFORMATION WHICH ARE, BY THEIR NATURE, UNCERTAIN. WHILST DRA WILL USE ITS REASONABLE ENDEAVOURS TO AVOID MANIFEST ERRORS IN SUCH INFORMATION, NO OTHER REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES ARE GIVEN WITH RESPECT TO SAME AND ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES, TERMS AND CONDITIONS RELATING TO THE MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE ARE EXCLUDED TO THE FULLEST EXTENT POSSIBLE. DRA WILL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION INDIRECT OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES ARISING OUT THE DRA INFORMATION OR ITS USE. DRA'S MAXIMUM AGGREGATE LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE INFORMATION SHALL NOT IN ANY EVENT EXCEED THE SUM PAID BY THE USER FOR THE SAME. 7. This licence shall be governed by English law and the parties submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts of England and Wales. David Rigby Associates Ltd Registered in England and Wales No. 1892381 Registered Office: 24 Princes Road, Heaton Moor, Stockport Cheshire SK4 3NQ ©2003

© 2003 iii

VISCOSE in Technical Textiles and Nonwovens

World Market Forecasts To 2010

PRODUCED FOR:

DRA Limited

Contents Page 1 OVERVIEW 1.1

1.1 Viscose: Increasingly Reliant Upon Technical Textiles 1.1

1.2 Viscose Technical Textiles Defined 1.2

1.3 Aims of the Report 1.2

1.4 The Source of the Forecasts 1.3

1.5 Products Using Viscose included in this Report 1.3

1.6 Levels of Detail in this Report 1.5

1.7 Scope and Structure of the Report 1.5

2 THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF VISCOSE IN THE TECHNICAL TEXTILES MARKET 2.1

2.1 Overall Market Size and Growth Rates for Technical Textiles 2.1

2.2 The Role of Viscose 2.2

3 VISCOSE END-USE PRODUCTS AND MARKETS 3.1

3.1 Outline of the Chapter 3.1

3.2 Overall End-Use Consumption of Viscose 3.2

3.3 End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Fibre Form (Yarn Type) 3.3

3.4 End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Application Area and End-Use Product 3.4

3.5 The Highest Volume and Fastest Growing Viscose End-Uses 3.18

3.6 End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Region 3.25

3.7 End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type 3.30 4 VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES 4.1

Part A: Viscose World Totals, 1995-2010 4.3

Part B: End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Polymer/Fibre Form 4.7

Part C: End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Region 4.12

Part D: End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Fabric and Other Final

Textile Product Type 4.22

Part E: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type against Polymer/Fibre Form 4.27

Part F: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region against Polymer/Fibre Form 4.31

Part G: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region against Fabric and Other Final Textile Product 4.35 Appendix 1: DEFINITIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS A.1.1 Appendix 2: THE DRA TEXTILE PRODUCTS END-USE CONSUMPTION FORECASTING SYSTEM A.2.1

© 2003 iv

List of Exhibits

Exhibit Page

Chapter 1: OVERVIEW

1.1: Top 8 Viscose Producers (all fibre forms) 1.1

1.2: List of the 30 Viscose End-Use Products Covered in this Report, with Relevant Application Area 1.4

1.3: Reporting Levels used in this Report 1.5 Chapter 2: THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF VISCOSE IN THE TECHNICAL TEXTILES MARKET

2.1: World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles, 1995-2010 ('000 tonnes and US$bn) 2.1

2.2: World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles Annual Growth Rates, 2000-2004 (Volume Terms) 2.2

2.3: Classification of Polymer/Fibre Types used in Technical Textiles 2.3

2.4: World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Broad Group of Polymer/Fibre Types, 1995-2010 ('000 tonnes) 2.4

2.5: Polymers and Fibres Consumed in Technical Textiles, 1995-2010, by Broad Group of Polymer/Fibre Types (US$bn) 2.4

2.6: World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Type, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms) 2.5

2.7: World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Main Polymer/Fibre Type and Application Area, 2000 ('000 tonnes) 2.5

2.8: World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Types and Region, 2000 ('000 tonnes) 2.8

2.9: World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Selected Polymer/Fibre Type, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes) 2.8

Chapter 3: VISCOSE END-USE PRODUCTS AND MARKETS

3.1: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles, 1995-2010 ('000 tonnes) 3.2

3.2: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Form, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms) 3.3

3.3: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Form, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes) 3.3

3.4: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Application Area, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms) 3.4

3.5: World End-use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Application Area, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes) 3.5

3.6: Viscose Medtech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000 3.6

3.7: Viscose Medtech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate 3.6

3.8: Relative Advantages and Disadvantages of Nonwoven, Disposable vs. Woven, Re-usable Gowns and Drapes 3.7

3.9: Viscose Indutech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000 3.9

3.10: Viscose Indutech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate 3.9

3.11: Viscose Mobiltech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000 3.11

© 2003 v

List of Exhibits (continued) Exhibit Page

Chapter 3: VISCOSE END-USE PRODUCTS AND MARKETS (continued)

3.12: Viscose Mobiltech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate 3.11

3.13: Fibre Shares in Tyre Cord Consumption, 2000 3.12

3.14: Viscose Hometech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000 3.12

3.15: Viscose Hometech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate 3.13

3.16: Viscose Clothtech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000 3.14

3.17: Viscose Clothtech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate 3.14

3.18: Viscose Sporttech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000 3.15

3.19: Viscose Sporttech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate 3.15

3.20: Viscose Protech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000 3.15

3.21: Viscose Protech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate 3.16

3.22: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Staple Fibre Form, by Product, 2000 3.17

3.23: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Spun Staple Form, by Product, 2000 3.17

3.24: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Textile Multifilament Form, by Product, 2000 3.18

3.25: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose HT Multifilament, by Product, 2000 3.18

3.26: Highest Volume Viscose Products in Technical Textiles, 2000, in Descending Order of Size 3.19

3.27: Fastest Growing Viscose Products in Technical Textiles between 2000 and 2010 in Descending Growth Rate Order 3.20

3.28: Average Annual Growth Rates by End-Use for Viscose in Technical Textiles, 2000 to 2010 (Volume Terms) 3.21

3.29: Matrix of Forecast Growth Rates, 2000 to 2010, by Market Size, 2000 3.22

3.30: Analysis of Increase in Viscose Demand between 2000 and 2010 3.23

3.31: Market Growth Trends and Market Share Changes for Viscose between 2000 and 2010 for the 10 Fastest Growing Viscose End-Use Products ('000 tonnes) 3.24

3.32: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms) 3.25

3.33: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes) 3.25

3.34: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose Staple Fibre in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms) 3.26

3.35: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose Staple Fibre in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes) 3.26

3.36: World End-Use Consumption of Spun Staple Viscose Fibre in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms) 3.27

3.37: World End-Use Consumption of Spun Staple Viscose Fibre in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes) 3.27

3.38: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose Textile Multifilament in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms) 3.28

3.39: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose Textile Multifilament in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes) 3.28

© 2003 vi

List of Exhibits (continued) Exhibit Page

Chapter 3: VISCOSE END-USE PRODUCTS AND MARKETS (continued)

3.40: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose HT Multifilament in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms) 3.29

3.41: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose HT Multifilament in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes) 3.29

3.42: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms) 3.30

3.43: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes) 3.30

3.44: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Unspun Fibre Form, by Product, 2000 3.31

3.45: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Woven Fabric Form, by Product, 2000 3.31

3.46: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Knitted Fabric Form, by Product, 2000 3.32

3.47: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Nonwoven Fabric Form, by Product, 2000 3.32

3.48: World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Yarn Type Form, by Product, 2000 3.33

APPENDIX 1: DEFINITIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS

A1.1: Techtextil Application Areas A1.1

A1.2: The Inter-relationship between Products in the Technical Textiles Production Chain A1.3

A1.3: Reporting Levels used in this Report A1.4

APPENDIX 2: THE DRA TEXTILE PRODUCTS END-USE CONSUMPTION FORECASTING SYSTEM

A2.1: Products included in the Technical Textiles Partition of DRA's Textile Products End-Use Consumption

Forecasting System A2.5

A2.2: Full List of Variables and their Subsets in the Technical Textiles Partition of DRA's Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System A2.6

© 2003 vii

List of Forecast Tables

Table Page Chapter 4: VISCOSE END-USE PRODUCTS: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES

Part A: Summary Tables: Viscose World Totals, 1995-2010

4.1: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Polymer/Fibre Form, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.4

4.2: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.4

4.3: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.5

4.4: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Application Area, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.5

4.5: End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.6

Part B: End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Polymer/Fibre Form

4.6: All Polymer/Fibre Forms, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.8


4.8: Staple Fibre, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.10

4.9: Spun Staple, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.10

4.10: Textile Multifilament, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.11

4.11: High Tenacity Multifilament, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.11

Part C: End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Region

4.12: By Region, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.13

4.13: By Region, 2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.14

4.14: North America, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.15

4.15: South America, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.16

4.16: Western Europe, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.17

4.17: Eastern Europe, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.18

4.18: South Asia, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.19

4.19: North East Asia, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.20

4.20: South East Asia, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.21

Part D: End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type

4.21: All Fabrics, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.23


4.23: Unspun Fibre, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.25

4.24: Woven Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.25

4.25: Knitted Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.26

4.26: Nonwoven Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.26

4.27: Yarn Type Products, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.26

© 2003 viii

List of Forecast Tables (continued) Table Page

Part E: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type against Polymer/Fibre Form







Part F: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region against Polymer/Fibre Form







Part G: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region against Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type



4.42: Unspun Fibre, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.37

4.43: Woven Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.37

4.44: Knitted Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.38

4.45: Nonwoven Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.38

4.46: Yarn Type Products, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.38

1.1 © 2003

1. OVERVIEW

1.1 VISCOSE: INCREASINGLY RELIANT UPON TECHNICAL TEXTILES

According to industry sources, the total consumption of viscose across all textile applications fell at an average annual rate of 1.5% between 1995 and 2000 at a time when consumption of all fibres in total rose by an average of 2% per annum. In non-technical applications, viscose's drape, fluidity and good dye uptake make it ideal for use in lightweight printed dresses, blouses, shirts and scarves, etc., whilst its high degree of conformability makes it an excellent fibre in filament form for use in garment linings. Its use in clothing, however, is heavily dependent on fashion, and is constrained by its poor launderability and, in particular, its high cost relative to the other high volume apparel fibres. In technical textiles viscose is also significantly more expensive than its main competitors, polyester and polypropylene. As a result, viscose is increasingly used in only a small range of woven and knitted technical applications where its unique performance capabilities warrant the extra cost.

However, despite the decline in total viscose consumption, the demand for viscose in technical textiles overall (including nonwovens) grew at an average rate of 3.1% per annum between 1995 and 2000. Between the years 2000 and 2010 the use of viscose in these technical applications is forecast by DRA to grow at the considerably higher average annual rate of 6.2% to reach almost 890,000 tonnes by the year 2010.

The highest growth rate for viscose in technical textiles is in the form of unspun fibre. The majority of this is used in carded nonwovens where overall demand is being driven by the need for convenient and disposable consumer and industrial products. Viscose nonwovens are forecast to have an average annual growth rate of 7.8% between 2000 and 2010 as a result of a combination of product segment growth and increased viscose shares in some products, such as wipes. Viscose's absorbency and biodegradability give it an advantage over competing fibres in nonwovens, whilst its non-thermoplastic nature, low-shrink characteristics and resistance to certain fluids make it ideal for use in many mechanical rubber goods (MRGs). However, as in the case of most of viscose's traditional woven, knitted and braided markets, overall demand for MRGs is forecast to show only low or negative rates of growth worldwide.

In response to these changes in demand for viscose in both consumer and technical end-uses, the industry has become increasingly consolidated over recent years with many of the smaller European and Japanese producers closing plants or going out of business. Recent estimates for total world viscose production indicate that the top four companies now account for around one-third of the world's viscose fibre supply. China, which has a large number of viscose producers of varying size, currently accounts for a further one-quarter of global viscose capacity.

Exhibit 1.1: Top 8 Viscose Producers (all fibre forms)

• Grasim • Lenzing • Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corp • Acordis • PT South Pacific Viscose (Lenzing: 42%) • PT Indo-Bharat Rayon (Grasim) • Thai Rayon • Säteri Fibres

1.2 © 2003

In Japan, many of the producers of viscose or other regenerated cellulosic fibres have either curtailed production or pulled out of the product segment entirely. There are now no producers of filament viscose and the remaining Japanese producers of viscose staple fibre (Omikenshi and Daiwabo Rayon), like Lenzing in Europe, have stated their intention to concentrate on the production of fibres for use in nonwovens, which now account for the majority of their sales.

Elsewhere in the Far East, South Pacific Rayon in Indonesia and Thai Rayon have both switched one-third of their production to the manufacture of viscose staple fibre for nonwoven applications.

In terms of geographic markets, Western Europe accounts for approaching one half of global viscose consumption in technical textiles, largely as a result of the region's dominance of unspun viscose fibre and high tenacity (HT) multifilament applications. Whilst currently the second-largest consuming region overall behind Western Europe, North America is forecast to lose share to North East Asia, as a result of the latter's increasing importance in terms of multifilament and unspun fibre consumption.

From an environmental perspective many of those involved in the industry claim that, since viscose is biodegradable and does not use petroleum as a raw material, it has a distinct ecological advantage over synthetic fibres. However, the use of large quantities of hazardous chemicals during the manufacturing process militates against its production in the longer-term in those countries which have stringent environmental legislation. This highly contentious factor, combined with the increase in consumption in regions such as Asia and South America, is likely to shift the balance of production still further away from Western countries in the future.

1.2 VISCOSE TECHNICAL TEXTILES DEFINED

This report considers all technical textiles that use viscose rayon in fibre, yarn or fabric form. In this report technical textiles are defined as comprising all those textile-based products which are used principally for their performance or functional characteristics rather than for their aesthetics, or are used for non-consumer (i.e. industrial) applications. Hence the definition does not depend on the yarn or fibre used, but on the end-use of the product itself. A more detailed definition of technical textiles is provided in Appendix 1.

1.3 AIMS OF THE REPORT

The mains aims of this report are as follows:

i) to provide a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the current world market for viscose in nonwovens and other technical textiles by individual end-use product

ii) to provide estimates of current end-use consumption levels for 30 separate end-use products containing viscose by region and by physical make-up (fibre form/yarn type, fabric type)

iii) to provide forecasts of consumption by product by region to 2010 at the same level of detail, based on a well defined and internally consistent set of assumptions, in order to provide a clear picture of future demand for viscose fibre in technical applications.

This information on the most important features of the viscose technical textiles market currently and up to 2010 is expected to be useful to the following types of organisation:

1.3 © 2003

• Producers of fibre intermediates, fibres, yarns and fabrics already operating in the sector or wishing to enter it

• Suppliers of chemicals to the fibre and textile industries: spin finishes, process chemicals, adhesives, coatings, effect chemicals, etc.

• Manufacturers of machinery for fibre production and processing, textile production, coating, laminating, etc.

• Converters and other downstream processors of technical textiles and nonwovens

• Fibre trade associations

• Ultimate commercial end-users of technical products.

1.4 THE SOURCE OF THE FORECASTS

The product detail and market forecasts in this report are based on DRA’s proprietary system for describing and forecasting world end-use markets for textile products. Details of this Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System are given in Appendix 2.

The databases and the model included in this consumption forecasting system have been set up to handle a high level of product and market detail. In practice the physical make-up of some 150 individual end-use products (including 30 products which use viscose) included in the technical textiles partition of this consumption forecasting system is analysed across 210 individual country markets into:

• 19 individual polymer/fibre types (e.g. cotton, viscose, polyester, etc)

• 8 forms of polymer/fibre used (e.g. unspun staple fibre, filament yarns, tape yarns)

• 19 different final textile product types (e.g. narrow woven fabrics, warp knits, dry-laid nonwovens)

• 4 coating types (plus uncoated).

Complete lists of the 150 technical textile products and the other variables contained within the DRA consumption forecasting system are given in Exhibits A2.1 and A2.2 in Appendix 2.

1.5 PRODUCTS USING VISCOSE INCLUDED IN THIS REPORT

Each of the 30 individual end-use technical textile products in which viscose is used has been assigned to one of the relevant 12 application areas as defined by Messe Frankfurt, the organisers of the Techtextil Shows and described in Exhibit A1.1, Appendix 1. A list of the products which use viscose, together with their application area and brief product description, is provided in Exhibit 1.2, overleaf.

1.4 © 2003

Application Area and Product

Product Description and Function

Clothtech: Interlinings, woven & knitted

Woven and knitted fabrics used to provide support and structure to garments

Clothtech: Interlinings, nonwoven

Nonwoven fabrics used to provide support and structure to garments

Hometech: Wipes, woven & knitted

Cleaning wipes for domestic applications in woven or knit form

Hometech: Wipes, nonwoven

Cleaning wipes for domestic applications in nonwoven form - including floor mops, etc

Hometech: Mattress tickings

Outer fabrics for wrapping mattresses

Hometech: Platform cloth

Fabrics used as a base for cushions on upholstered furniture

Indutech: Conveyor belting Woven fabrics for conveying and speciality applications Indutech: Hoses Braids, woven and knitted fabrics used to reinforce rubber and

polymer hoses for industrial applications Indutech: Drive belting Machine drive and power transmission belting including flat and

coated products as well as V-type designs Indutech: Abrasives Fabrics for a variety of polishing and abrasion applications Indutech: Wipes, woven & knitted

Cleaning wipes for industrial applications in knit/woven form

Indutech: Wipes, nonwoven

Cleaning wipes for industrial applications in nonwoven form

Indutech: Liquid filters, nonwoven

Filter media for swimming pools, food, vessel bags, etc.

Indutech: Battery separators, etc

Fabrics for battery separators, floppy disc liners, transformers, etc - excludes PCBs

Indutech: Fibrefill Fibrefill and waddings for miscellaneous industrial applications Medtech: Gowns and drapes, nonwoven

Lightweight nonwoven garments used in protective and medical situations

Medtech: Woundcare, woven & knitted

All medical wovens and knits such as bandages and dressings, gauze, slings, etc

Medtech: Woundcare, nonwoven

Nonwovens for bandages, dressings and other medical end-uses not elsewhere specified

Medtech: Sterile packaging Sterile medical packaging Medtech: Coverstock Outer fabrics used in sanitary towels, diapers, incontinence pads Medtech: Cotton wool Loose fibre used for removing or applying powders or liquids Medtech: Wipes Wipes for cleansing skin, face, hands, etc

Mobiltech: Car tyre cord Fabric for reinforcement of tyres Mobiltech: CV tyre cord Fabric for reinforcement of tyres other than for cars Mobiltech: Auto drive belt Fabric for reinforcement of automotive drive belts, etc Mobiltech: Auto hose Fabric for reinforcement of automotive hoses

Protech: FR clothing Fabrics for use in clothing worn to protect against flame and heat Protech: NBC Fabrics to protect against nuclear, biological and chemical exposure

Sporttech: Bookcloth Substrate for leather-type covering of hard backed books Sporttech: Artificial leather substrates

Substrates for artificial leather handbags, luggage, small goods

Source: DRA

Exhibit 1.2

List of the 30 Viscose End-Use Products Covered in this Report, with Relevant Application Area

1.5 © 2003

1.6 LEVELS OF DETAIL IN THIS REPORT

Not all variables included in the DRA consumption forecasting system are relevant to viscose. Hence, in this report, the physical make-up of each of the 30 viscose products listed in Exhibit 1.2 is analysed in terms of 4 fibre forms and 5 fabric/final textile product types as shown in Exhibit 1.3. Also, for the sake of conciseness, the 210 countries in the consumption forecasting system have been condensed into 8 regions.

Regions Fibre Forms (Yarn Types)

Fabric and Other End-Use Product

Types

N America

S America

W Europe

E Europe

S Asia

N E Asia

S E Asia

Rest of World (Central Asia, Middle East, Africa, Oceania)

Staple Fibre

Spun Staple

Textile Multifilament (regular tenacity)

Industrial Multifilament (high tenacity)

Unspun Fibre

Woven

Knitted

Nonwoven

Yarn Type Products

Total: 8 Total: 4 Total: 5

Source: DRA

Further details of the variables used in this report are given in Exhibit A1.3, Appendix 1.

1.7 SCOPE AND STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT

Chapter 2: The Relative Importance of Viscose in the Technical Textiles Market provides summary forecasts for the technical textiles market in total and then compares the current size and prospects for man-made fibres/polymers in technical textile markets with the other broad fibre groups: natural and inorganic. It then looks briefly at inter-fibre competition between viscose and other individual fibre types (e.g. polyester).

Chapter 3: Viscose End-Use Products and Markets draws on the detailed Tables in Chapter 4 to highlight some of the important trends in the use of viscose in technical textiles and nonwovens.

Chapter 4: Viscose End-Use Products: Detailed Forecast Tables provides a set of 46 Forecast Tables drawn from the DRA consumption forecasting system analysing the world market for viscose from 1995 to 2010. These tables are split into 7 Parts:

Part A consists of 5 Summary Tables, which provide an overview of viscose consumption worldwide over the period 1995-2010. These tables split viscose consumption by polymer/fibre form, fabric type, region, application area and end-use product.

Exhibit 1.3

Reporting Levels used in this Report

1.6 © 2003

Parts B-D provide a detailed analysis of 30 individual viscose end-use products with consumption forecasts to 2010:

• Part B (6 tables) shows the relative importance of each of the 4 fibre forms in the production of each viscose product over the period 1995-2010 (e.g. staple fibre)

• Part C (9 tables) provides estimates and forecasts of consumption for each product across 8 regions of the world over the period 1995-2010 (e.g. North America)

• Part D (7 tables) shows the relative importance of each of the 6 fabric and other end-use product types in the production of each viscose product over the period 1995-2010 (e.g. knitted fabric).

Parts E-F provide an analysis of overall end-use viscose consumption by the 8 main polymer/fibre forms with forecasts to 2010:

• Part E (6 Tables) provides estimates and forecasts for the use of each polymer/fibre form in each of the 6 fabric and other end-use product types over the period 1995-2010 (e.g. unspun fibre in nonwovens)

• Part F (6 Tables) provides estimates and forecasts for the use of each polymer/fibre form in each of 8 regions of the world over the period 1995-2010 (e.g. spun staple yarns in Eastern Europe).

Part G (7 Tables) provides an analysis of overall end-use viscose consumption by the 6 fabric types in each of 8 regions of the world over the period 1995-2010 (e.g. nonwoven fabrics in Western Europe).

Appendix 1: Definitions and Assumptions outlines the main assumptions and definitions underlying the projections in this report and provides a description of the main table formats used to present the forecasts.

Appendix 2: The DRA Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System describes the consumption forecasting system developed by David Rigby Associates which is the basis of the volume and value estimates presented in this report.

2.1 © 2003

Exhibit 2.1

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles, 1995-2010 (‘000 tonnes and US$ bn)

2. THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF VISCOSE IN THE TECHNICAL TEXTILES MARKET

2.1 OVERALL MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH RATES FOR TECHNICAL TEXTILES

Technical textiles and nonwovens (referred to in this report collectively as technical textiles) already play a much more important role worldwide than is commonly acknowledged. According to DRA’s estimates, world production and consumption of technical textiles in 2000 amounted to just over 16.7 million tonnes of fibre and polymer with a finished textile product value of US$92.9 billion. In weight terms, this represents some 27% of the estimated 62.2 million tonnes of fibres consumed across all end-uses in that year.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

'000

tonn

es

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

US$

bn

Volume ('000 tonnes) Value (US$ bn) at Quarter 1 2002 prices

Source: DRA

There are signs, however, that the fastest period of expansion of the technical textiles industry is already over. Exhibit 2.1 indicates a faster rate of overall market growth in both volume and value terms for the period 2005-2010, but this largely reflects an anticipated upturn in global economic activity after a period of slow growth, and in many countries actual recession, around the turn of the century. Nevertheless, forecast average growth rates (in volume terms) of 3.5% between 1995 and 2005 and 3.8% p.a. from 2005 to 2010 remain relatively attractive, especially in comparison with most other, non-technical, textile markets.

Forecast growth rates in value terms (constant 2002 prices) are lower than those for volumes, with technical textiles consumption forecast to grow on average by only 2.8% p.a. in value terms over the period 1995-2005, recovering to 3.6% p.a. between 2005 and 2010. This is the result of a weakening of the mix in terms of:

2.2 © 2003

Exhibit 2.2

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles Annual Growth Rates, 2000-2004 (Volume Terms)

• fibres used (e.g. polyester replacing higher priced polyamide within product segments such as Protech and Sporttech)

• fabric types (nonwovens growing faster than higher priced wovens and knits, especially in Medtech and Hometech)

• product mix (e.g. large volumes of high priced tyre cord in Mobiltech growing far more slowly than products such as composites that have low textile value per unit weight).

Exhibit 2.2 describes the shorter-term outlook for technical textile markets. The New York terrorist attacks of September 2001 further depressed an already fragile world economy, resulting in a major slow-down in the growth rates for the technical textile market. The market is expected to have grown in volume terms on average by 2.1% p.a. between 2000-2002 compared with an average of 3.7% p.a. between 1995 and 2000. However, from 2002 a recovery is forecast with growth rates of more than 4% p.a. between 2002 and 2004.

Source: DRA

2.2 THE ROLE OF VISCOSE

This Section looks briefly at the role of synthetic and regenerated fibres compared with the other main groups of fibres (natural, inorganic). It then goes on to look more specifically at inter-fibre competition and how viscose compares with the other individual fibres (e.g. polyester) in technical textiles and nonwovens.

2.2.1 How the Technical Textile Market is Split By Broad Grouping of Polymer/Fibre Types

All the major textile polymers are represented in the technical textiles market, including polyester, polyamide, polyolefin, acrylic and viscose, as well as a number of high performance or speciality materials e.g. aramids, carbon, ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE), polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), polyphenylene sulphide (PPS),

2.0%

4.1% 4.2%

2.2%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

Period

% C

han

ge

AA

2.3 © 2003

polyvinyl chloride (PVC) etc. Natural and inorganic fibres (especially glass) are also used in large volumes for their specific characteristics.

Exhibit 2.3 indicates how the 19 individual polymer/fibre types within the DRA Textile Product End-Use Consumption Forecasting System are aggregated into broad groups for the purpose of providing an overview of technical textile markets in Section 2.2.2.

In this report the market definition for technical textiles is based on fibre products and therefore excludes any materials produced via extrusion technologies such as extruded nets and strappings.

Source: DRA

It can be seen from Exhibit 2.3 that of the 16.7 million tonnes of polymer/fibre consumed worldwide in 2000 in the manufacture of technical textiles, synthetic fibres had a 58% share, natural fibres and wood-pulp 21%, inorganic fibres (mainly glass) 15% and regenerated fibres 6%.

Polymer/Fibre Types World Market Size

2000 Aggregation Levels for

which Broad Forecasts are made in Section 2.2.2

Individual Polymer/Fibre Types included in the Aggregation

(See Exhibit A2.2 in Appendix 2) ‘000 tonnes

% share

Natural

Cotton Wool Others Wood-pulp

3,462 21%

Regenerated Viscose Other cellulosic fibre

1,034 6%

Synthetic

Polyester Polyamide Polyolefin

Polypropylene Polyethylene

Acrylic Elastomeric Aramid

para-aramid meta-aramid

Other synthetic high performance

9,638

58%

Inorganic Glass Carbon Ceramic Steel

2,580 15%

TOTAL 16,715 100%

Exhibit 2.3

Classification of Polymer/Fibre Types used in Technical Textiles

2.4 © 2003

2.2.2 Growth by Broad Grouping of Polymer/Fibre Types

As shown in Exhibit 2.4, between 2000 and 2010 the technical textiles market is forecast to increase by an average of 3.6% per annum in volume terms, to reach 28.3 million tonnes. Over the same period synthetic fibres are forecast to grow a little more rapidly (by 3.7% per annum), and will remain the most widely used broad polymer/fibre type in 2010.

However, rather faster rates of growth over the second half of the decade are forecast for regenerated fibres (mostly viscose) and especially, inorganic fibres (mostly glass). Natural fibres will grow only slowly and consequently lose market share.

Source: DRA

Exhibit 2.5 provides a split in value terms of the technical textiles market by major fibre group, based on constant Quarter 1 2002 prices. Total consumption of technical textiles is forecast to increase on average by 3.7% per annum from US$32.5 billion in 2000 to US$46.2 billion by the end of the decade. In 2010 synthetics will have, at 64%, by far the largest market share in value terms.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

US$

bill

ion Inorganic

SyntheticRegeneratedNatural / Woodpulp

Source: DRA

Year CAGR % Broad Group of Polymer/Fibre Types 1995 2000 2005 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

Natural 3,125 3,462 3,839 4,447 2.1% 2.1% 3.0%

Regenerated 964 1,034 1,178 1,434 1.4% 2.6% 4.0%

Synthetic 7,884 9,638 11,498 13,902 4.1% 3.6% 3.9%

Inorganic 1,999 2,580 3,167 3,991 5.2% 4.2% 4.7%

TOTAL 13,971 16,714 19,683 23,774 3.7% 3.3% 3.8%

Exhibit 2.4

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Broad Group of Polymer/Fibre Types, 1995-2010 (‘000 tonnes)

Exhibit 2.5

Polymers and Fibres Consumed in Technical Textiles, 1995-2010, by Broad Group of Polymer/Fibre Types (US$bn)

2.5 © 2003

2.2.3 Individual Polymer/Fibre Types Used in Technical Textiles and Nonwovens

Despite the considerable attention paid to higher value speciality fibres such as aramids and carbon, the standard textile polymers such as polyester, polyamide and polypropylene, along with glass fibres and natural and cellulosic fibres, account for over 99% by weight of all textile material used in technical applications. As can be seen from Exhibit 2.6, viscose accounted for just 3% of the total market by weight in 2000.

Polyester25%

Polyamide7%

Polyolefin25%

Other natural14%

Cotton7%

Glass15%

Other<1%

Acrylic<1%

Other cellulosic3%

Viscose3%

Source: DRA.

2.2.4 Polymer/Fibre Type End-Use Consumption by Application Area

Exhibit 2.7 shows the split of technical textile consumption for each of the major polymer/fibre types by the 12 Techtextil application areas.

Source: DRA

Polymer/Fibre Type TOTAL Application

Area PES Poly-olefin

PA Other synth-

etic Viscose

Other Regen-erated

Natural In-

organic ‘000

Tonnes % share of total

Agrotech 120.8 807.2 212.6 6.6 0.0 0.0 234.1 0.0 1,381.3 8.3%

Buildtech 250.9 212.7 41.0 30.0 0.0 0.0 120.7 992.7 1,648.0 9.9%

Clothtech 870.0 38.9 65.1 2.2 41.9 0.0 219.8 0.0 1,237.8 7.4%

Geotech 126.9 120.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.0 255.1 1.5%

Hometech 903.0 647.7 17.0 1.8 54.5 0.0 454.7 107.3 2,185.9 13.1%

Indutech 328.5 172.8 101.1 42.0 116.5 543.9 153.7 746.4 2,204.9 13.2%

Medtech 160.7 851.4 6.3 2.9 198.5 0.0 323.7 0.0 1,543.5 9.2%

Mobiltech 758.1 174.7 595.5 25.2 75.0 0.0 166.6 683.8 2,478.9 14.8%

Packtech 32.2 923.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1594.8 0.0 2,551.8 15.3%

Protech 114.4 46.7 32.8 15.5 0.9 0.0 27.2 0.4 238.0 1.4%

Sporttech 465.4 122.9 175.1 14.0 2.5 0.0 159.7 49.6 989.1 5.9%

Total 4,131.7 4,119.1 1,248.1 140.2 489.9 543.9 3,462.4 2,580.1 16,714.3 100.0%

% Share 24.7% 24.6% 7.5% 0.8% 2.9% 3.3% 20.7% 15.4% 100.0% -

Oekotech (incl in above total)

49.2 97.8 3.0 7.3 0.0 0.0 12.7 43.9 214.5 1.3%

Exhibit 2.6

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Type, 2000 (% Split in Volume Terms)

Exhibit 2.7

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Main Polymer/ Fibre Type and Application Area, 2000 (’000 tonnes)

2.6 © 2003

This Exhibit shows that polyester is used in significant volumes across all application areas (with the exception of Packtech) as a consequence of its low price, versatility, and ability to engineer a wide range of specific performance characteristics. Polyolefin polymer/fibres come a very close second in terms of total volumes and spread of usage. Viscose is one of the smaller volume fibres, with its use heavily concentrated into five application areas where its specific characteristics are valued (see Chapter 3).

Polyester

Polyester offers an excellent price-performance balance combined with a range of properties which have led it to gain considerable ground in many technical applications. These gains have been mostly at the expense of viscose in higher tenacity/modulus end-uses, polyamide in foul weather clothing and technical consumer goods applications, and natural materials and polymer foams in applications such as filling materials. Polyester is forecast to continue to gain share from viscose in a number of MRG applications such as conveyor belts (Indutech), and commercial vehicle tyre cord (Mobiltech).

However, the rise of polyester will not continue unchallenged; recent new fibre developments, such as PLA (polylactic acid), are seeking a share of some existing polyester strongholds in relatively high volume areas of the technical textiles market, such as fibrefill. There are a few instances where polyester is blended with viscose, usually to increase strength and stability (e.g. nonwovens).

Polyolefins

Polypropylene is used mainly in relatively low performance technical applications such as Packtech, Medtech, Hometech and Agrotech. It is also used extensively in carpet face yarns and in some apparel and non-technical furnishing products which are not covered in this report.

The use of polypropylene (and to a much smaller extent polyethylene) in textile applications has grown rapidly over recent years, and polypropylene is now second only to polyester in overall usage in technical applications. The importance of technical polyolefin products in Asia (and elsewhere) is set to rise, particularly to the extent that it can substitute for the considerable amounts of jute and sisal still used throughout the world.

Polypropylene competes extensively with viscose in Medtech. Polypropylene often benefits from its considerably lower price, but loses out in terms of poor absorbency performance relative to viscose, especially in high growth areas such as wipes.

Polyamide

Polyamide (nylon) continues to be used in applications which require greater extensibility and energy absorbing capacity, ranging from ropes, fishing nets and spinnaker sails to conveyor belting and airbags. Its use is concentrated in Mobiltech which consumes just under 48% of all polyamide polymers and fibres used in technical textiles.

There is little substitution between the two forms of nylon, PA6 and PA6.6, as each has its own specific characteristics suited to certain end-uses. However, nylon’s higher price and the lack of a ‘standard’ product have hindered its development overall and made it a target for substitution by a number of alternative polymers offering comparable combinations of properties.

Viscose competes with polyamide in MRG end-use products such as conveyor belts, hoses and drive belting (Indutech), and automotive hoses, drive belts and tyre cord (Mobiltech). In the case of tyre cord in particular, both viscose and polyamide are losing share to newer, more stable, forms of polyester.

2.7 © 2003

Other Synthetic Fibres

Acrylic fibres and their modified variants are valued for their resistance to temperature, fire and ultra-violet rays in applications as diverse as filtration media (Indutech), protective clothing (Protech), furnishings (Mobiltech), awnings (Buildtech) and boat covers (Mobiltech). However, like polyamide, they continue to lose market share to improved versions of polyester, the aramids and even polypropylene in these application areas.

High performance and high value synthetic fibres offer unique combinations of properties suited to a range of specific technical applications such as in filtration products (Indutech) and protective clothing (Protech) where meta-aramids and flame retardant viscose variants compete. However, apart from carbon and the aramids, none can yet lay claim to markets of more than a few hundred or, at most, a few thousand tonnes worldwide, albeit of very high unit values.

Other Regenerated Fibres

The consumption of other regenerated fibres in technical textiles is dominated by acetate, although this category also includes small volumes of lyocell.

Unlike viscose, which is used in 30 end-use products, acetate is confined solely to cigarette tow (Indutech). Cigarette production has been broadly static for several years and volumes are forecast to remain relatively flat to 2010.

Natural Fibres

Natural fibres still play a prominent part in many technical applications, either because they have specific attributes not normally possessed by man-made polymers such as absorbency (e.g. cotton for surgical and hygiene applications in Medtech) or are locally abundant and suited to less demanding (but nonetheless still technical) textile applications such as jute for sacking and carpet backing, or sisal for rope and twine.

Jute continues to be under threat from synthetic fibre alternatives (mainly polypropylene but some polyester), especially in developed markets.

There is some direct competition between cotton and viscose, particularly in Medtech applications such as 'cotton wool' and woven and knitted woundcare. Cotton tends to dominate these product segments as a result of its lower cost.

Inorganic Fibres

The main inorganic fibre in technical textiles is glass, whose role is often understated or ignored by conventional statistical sources. Even excluding “glass wool” (used directly in large volumes for insulation purposes, etc), glass fibre accounts for 15% of all technical textiles fibre consumption, mostly as reinforcement for composites (GRP) and as wet-laid nonwovens. Glass competes with viscose solely within the Indutech application area (in specialist conveyor belts, battery separators/floppy disk liners, and abrasive backing cloths).

2.8 © 2003

2.2.5 Polymer/Fibre Type End-Use Consumption by Region

Exhibit 2.8 shows that the consumption of viscose in technical textiles is largely confined to three regions of the world, namely Western Europe, North America and North East Asia, who between them account for no less than 85% of world consumption, compared with 71%for all fibres.

Source: DRA

The consumption of polyolefins is broadly similar to that of viscose in that Western demand accounts for more than half of global consumption. This contrasts with the consumption of polyester and polyamide, where North East Asia is the largest consumer, with North America and Western Europe being the second and third largest respective consumers.

2.2.6 Future Prospects for Viscose Fibre

The buoyant outlook for viscose fibre is largely the result of the high forecast growth rates for disposable nonwoven wipes, particularly within Medtech, but also within Hometech and Indutech. Indeed, the majority of high growth end-use products containing viscose are based on nonwoven fabrics.

These products are forecast to have high overall growth rates, in contrast to most of the fibre's more traditional woven and braided end-use markets, particularly in those country markets where viscose has a high market share. As a result, viscose is set to grow to 2010 at a faster rate than any other of the main polymer/fibre types used in technical textiles, as shown in Exhibit 2.9.

Year Polymer/Fibre Type 2000

('000 tonnes) 2010

('000 tonnes)

CAGR 2000-2010 (%)

Viscose 490 890 6.2% Polyethylene 352 567 4.9% Inorganic 2,580 3,991 4.5% Polypropylene 3,767 5,644 4.1% Polyester 4,131 5,932 3.7% Natural Fibres 3,336 4,185 2.3% Polyamide 1,248 1,553 2.2% Total 15,904 22,763 3.7%

Source: DRA

Polymer/Fibre Type TOTAL

Region PES

Poly-olefin

PA Other synth-etic

Viscose Other

Regen-erated

Natural In-

organic ‘000

Tonnes %

Share

N. America 987.3 1,047.7 210.2 37.7 108.5 95.0 462.0 1,235.5 4,183.9 25.0%

S. America 232.4 211.0 133.6 5.4 18.7 37.3 156.9 51.6 846.8 5.1%

W. Europe 934.3 1,149.3 170.6 31.3 217.3 95.0 401.2 615.3 3,614.3 21.6%

E. Europe 146.3 128.5 99.1 3.4 12.2 56.7 93.3 8.6 548.1 3.3%

S. Asia 158.3 222.6 41.3 4.4 12.4 28.7 974.5 27.2 1,469.4 8.8%

N. E. Asia 1,300.9 831.6 438.2 49.5 91.6 168.6 581.5 577.7 4,039.6 24.2%

S.E. Asia 136.6 206.5 75.6 2.8 9.6 20.3 535.7 49.9 1,037.0 6.2% Rest of World 234.6 321.8 79.6 5.6 19.5 42.4 257.3 14.3 975.2 5.8%

Total 4,131.7 4,119.1 1,248.1 140.2 489.9 543.9 3,462.4 2,580.1 16,714.4 100.0% % Share 24.7% 24.6% 7.5% 0.8% 2.9% 3.3% 20.7% 15.4% 100.0% -

Exhibit 2.8

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Types and Region, 2000 (’000 tonnes)

Exhibit 2.9

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Selected Polymer/Fibre Type, 2000 and 2010 (‘000 tonnes)

3.1 © 2003

3. VISCOSE END-USE PRODUCTS AND MARKETS

3.1 OUTLINE OF THE CHAPTER

The analysis of viscose consumption in technical textile markets in this Chapter has been drawn largely from the detailed Tables found in Chapter 4 of this report and aims to highlight some of the main conclusions which emerge from these Tables. There is a large amount of information within Chapter 4, and many different analyses are possible; the most obvious and revealing of these are reported on in this Chapter.

The analysis has been divided into 6 Sections:

3.2 Overall End-Use Consumption of Viscose

Identifies total consumption of viscose to 2010 in technical applications.

3.3 End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Fibre Form (Yarn Type)

Analyses the overall split of viscose consumption by the eight main fibre forms.

3.4 End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Application Area and End-Use Product

Shows the split of viscose consumption by the 12 Techtextil application areas and then provides numerical and written analyses of the products which make up each of these areas. This Section identifies products with the highest volumes and the fastest growth rates and those products where viscose is taking or losing market share relative to other fibres.

3.5 The Highest Volume and Fastest Growing Viscose End-Uses

Identifies the largest and fastest viscose end-use products and analyses to what extent growth in viscose consumption is attributable to increases in demand for end-use products and to changes in market share at the expense of other fibres.

3.6 End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Region

Discusses the regional split of viscose consumption both overall and by each of the relevant fibre forms.

3.7 End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type

Analyses the split of viscose consumption overall by the eight types of fabric and other final textile product types.

Where data has been drawn from Chapter 4 the specific Forecast Tables have been identified to enable the reader to see the detail on which the analysis is based.

3.2 © 2003

3.2 OVERALL END-USE CONSUMPTION OF VISCOSE

In 2000 the global consumption of viscose in technical textiles was nearly 490,000 tonnes. DRA forecasts that this volume will increase by an annual average of 6.2% in volume terms to reach almost 890,000 tonnes in 2010, as shown in Exhibit 3.1.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1995 - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

'000

ton

nes

Source: DRA

Assuming a weighted average unit price of US$2.90/kg for viscose across the different forms in which it is supplied by the fibre industry, the volume of viscose consumed in the year 2000 equates to a value of US$1.4bn, increasing to US$2.6bn in the year 2010 (based on constant prices).

While many end-use sectors for viscose are still expanding, growth rates will continue to vary significantly between different regions and end-uses. Key factors in these variations include:

• the maturing of some large volume products in which there is now little scope for innovation or product development

• the maturing of some geographic markets where penetration is already high and where there is little opportunity to capture further market share

• the fluctuating costs of raw materials and variations in costs among regions

• the impact of fluctuations in both national and global economic activity on underlying demand trends in the various end-use market segments.

The volume forecasts in this report reflect all these factors, with the exception of polymer/fibre prices which are assumed to remain unchanged relative to each other over time (see Appendix 1).

Exhibit 3.1

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles, 1995 - 2010 ('000 tonnes)

Year

3.3 © 2003

3.3 END-USE CONSUMPTION OF VISCOSE BY FIBRE FORM (YARN TYPE)

Exhibit 3.2 describes the consumption of viscose by weight, split by fibre form (yarn type) in the year 2000. Unlike other man-made fibre types, viscose consumption is confined to a limited number of fibre forms: unspun staple fibre, spun staple yarn, textile (regular tenacity) multifilament and industrial (high tenacity) multifilament. It is not produced in the form of polymer, Bulked Continuous Filament (BCF), monofilament or tape/slit film yarns. These four polymer/fibre forms are shown at a zero level in the following two Exhibits and are not discussed further in the text or included in further Exhibits.

Staple fibre70.7%

Spun staple6.6%

Textile multifilament

6.1%

HT multifilament16.6%

Monofilament0.0%

Polymer0.0%

Tape0.0%

BCF0.0%

Source: DRA (see Table 4.1 for further detail).

Of the total volume of almost 490,000 tonnes of viscose consumed in technical textiles in the year 2000, the majority, more than 70%, was in the form of unspun staple fibre. Of this volume, almost 91% was used in nonwoven products such as wipes and filters; the remainder was used as unspun fibre in fibrefill and 'cotton wool'. As shown in Exhibit 3.3, below, the consumption of viscose in unspun staple fibre form is forecast to increase the most rapidly, growing at an average rate of 7.8% per annum to the year 2010, when it is forecast to account for almost 83% of total viscose fibre usage in technical products.

Fibre Form

Viscose Consumption,

2000 ('000 tonnes)


2010 ('000 tonnes)

CAGR 2000-2010

(%)

Staple Fibre 346.4 735.0 7.8% Spun Staple 32.4 38.3 1.7% Textile Multifilament 29.7 37.1 2.2% HT Multifilament 81.4 79.4 (0.2)% Total 489.9 889.8 6.1%


Exhibit 3.2

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Form, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

Exhibit 3.3

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Form, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

3.4 © 2003

Spun staple viscose yarns, which accounted for almost 7% of viscose consumption by weight in 2000, are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of only 1.7% until 2010. These yarns are used in a number of applications including woven and knitted bandages, abrasive backing-cloths and woven wipes.

In 2000, viscose multifilament yarns accounted for almost 23% of viscose consumed in technical applications; industrial high tenacity multifilaments (referred to as HT multifilament in this report) accounted for almost three-quarters of all multifilaments, and almost 17% of total viscose consumed in technical textiles. However, HT multifilament is forecast to decrease by an average of 0.2% per annum to the year 2010 due to a shift towards polyester and polyamide, most notably in tyre cord. In contrast, the consumption of regular tenacity multifilament (referred to as textile multifilament in this report) is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 2.2% over the same period.

3.4 END-USE CONSUMPTION OF VISCOSE BY APPLICATION AREA AND END-USE PRODUCT

3.4.1 Techtextil Application Areas

Exhibit 3.4, below, provides the split of global viscose consumption in technical textiles (in volume terms) by application area in the year 2000 (Oekotech products appear in other application areas). Viscose consumption is heavily concentrated in five of the 11 Techtextil application areas: Medtech; Indutech; Mobiltech; Hometech and Clothtech. Together these five application areas accounted for over 99% of consumption. There was no discernible viscose consumption in four of the categories: Agrotech; Buildtech; Geotech and Packtech.

Agrotech0.0%

Medtech40.5%

Buildtech0.0%

Packtech0.0%

Clothtech8.6% Geotech

0.0%

Hometech11.1%

Protech0.2%

Sporttech0.5%

Mobiltech15.3%

Indutech23.8%

Source: DRA (see Table 4.4 for further detail). Exhibit 3.5 compares the consumption of viscose by application area in 2000 and 2010; it is apparent that Medtech, Indutech and Hometech present the best opportunities for growth for viscose. In each case this is predominantly the result of the high growth forecast for nonwoven wipes.

Exhibit 3.4

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Application Area, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

3.5 © 2003


Viscose consumption in Hometech is forecast to grow at an average of 8.1% per annum between 2000 and 2010. Medtech is forecast to grow at an average of 7.5%, thereby increasing its share of viscose consumption overall from 40% in 2000 to 46% in 2010. Indutech is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 7% over the same period.

The consumption of viscose in the Mobiltech application area is forecast to decrease by an average of 0.5% per annum partly as a result of a loss of market share to polyester and polyamide in tyre cords and transmission belts, but also as a result of negative growth in car tyre cord overall, as textile usage per tyre declines and tyre life is extended.

The following Section of the report discusses the application areas in descending order of viscose consumption in 2000.

3.4.2 Medtech: Medical and Hygiene Products

The scope of Medtech embraces all those textile materials used in health and hygiene applications in both consumer and medical markets. Medtech is by far the biggest consumer of viscose fibres in technical textile applications, largely as a result of the fibre's highly absorbent and biodegradable nature.

Wipes form a very important part of viscose consumed in the Medtech category, accounting for almost half of the volume consumed in 2000, as shown in Exhibit 3.6, below.

050

100150200250300350400450

Agrotec

h

Buildte

ch

Clothte

ch

Geotec

h

Homete

ch

Indute

ch

Medtec

h

Mobilte

ch

Packte

ch

Protec

h

Sportte

ch

'000

tonn

es20002010

Exhibit 3.5

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Application Area, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

Application Area

3.6 © 2003

Viscose Consumption, 2000 Products using Viscose in Medtech

Total Market Size, 2000

('000 tonnes)

Viscose share, 2000

(%) '000 tonnes Share of total (%)

Wipes 190.4 51.3% 97.6 49.2%

Cotton wool 188.7 16.5% 31.1 15.7%

Nonwoven gowns, drapes

93.8 25.0% 23.4 11.8%

Coverstock 893.7 2.0% 17.9 9.0%

Woundcare woven, knitted

101.3 15.7% 15.9 8.0%

Sterile packaging

29.0 25.0% 7.2 3.6%

Woundcare, nonwoven

21.5 25.0% 5.4 2.7%

Total 1,518.4 13.1% 198.5 100.0%

Source: DRA, taken from Table 4.5.

As can be seen from Exhibit 3.7, wipes are also the fastest growing end-use product within Medtech, with an annual average growth rate of 10.7%. The growth of wipes relative to other products within this application area results in an increase in their share of viscose consumption within Medtech from almost half to around two-thirds by 2010.

Viscose Consumption, 2000


Products using Viscose in Medtech '000 tonnes Share of

total (%) '000 tonnes Share of

total (%)

Viscose CAGR

2000-2010 (%)

Wipes 97.6 49.2% 269.8 66.2% 10.7%

Woundcare, nonwoven

5.4 2.7% 11.6 2.8% 8.0%

Nonwoven gowns, drapes

23.4 11.8% 37.4 9.2% 4.8%

Sterile packaging

7.2 3.6% 11.2 2.7% 4.4%

Coverstock 17.9 9.0% 25.6 6.3% 3.7%

Cotton wool 31.1 15.7% 35.0 8.6% 1.2%

Woundcare woven, knitted

15.9 8.0% 17.0 4.2% 0.7%

Total 198.5 100.0% 407.6 100.0% 7.5%


Exhibit 3.7

Viscose Medtech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

Exhibit 3.6

Viscose Medtech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000

3.7 © 2003

Wipes

There are two types of Medtech wipes: professional wipes used in hospitals and clinics, and consumer wipes for both babies and adults. Nonwoven consumer wipes are a relatively new product. They are usually impregnated with a combination of fluids and chemicals designed to clean and protect skin and are often perfumed. Product differentiation is largely focused on the development of new additives, such as baby lotion or aloe vera, or the improved strength or softness of the base cloth. Innovative and consumer-friendly packaging also plays a key role in the development of new brands and product variations.

Cotton wool

'Cotton wool', in the form of balls or pleats, is produced from 100% cotton or from blends of cotton and viscose. An increasing proportion of cotton wool now uses organic cotton in an attempt to improve the product offering of an otherwise commodity item.

Nonwoven gowns and drapes

Disposable nonwoven surgical gowns and drapes have in recent years taken market share from traditional woven and reusable products. Whilst nonwoven gowns and drapes tend to work out more expensive per use than their woven counterparts, they have become widely used and have been developed with high levels of barrier performance. The relative benefits of disposables and re-usable woven garments are shown in Exhibit 3.8, below:

Nonwovens/Disposable Garments Woven/Re-usable Garments

Pros Cons Pros Cons

Development of more comfortable breathable composite nonwoven garments

Environmental impact of incineration to dispose of garments

Inherent greater wearer comfort of woven garments

Environmental impact of detergents used to wash re-usable garments

Use of non-replenishable resources in producing garments

Better drape of woven fabrics

Use of water during laundering garments

Improved textile handle of nonwovens

Landfill restrictions on disposals

Development of specialist laundries

Contamination fears of re-using garments even after laundering

Source: DRA from industry discussions.

Although the industrial laundering of reusable surgical gowns and drapes has been shown to have a lower overall impact on the environment than disposable products, the latter appear to be gaining the upper hand in the market. Several studies have confirmed the superiority of single-use surgical products in terms of resistance to bacterial and liquid penetration. Recent European research suggests that many re-usables fail quality standards and could endanger patients.

Further improvements can be expected for single-use surgical gowns and drapes through the use of new nonwovens and films that improve both barrier performance and comfort properties.

Exhibit 3.8

Relative Advantages and Disadvantages of Nonwoven, Disposable vs. Woven, Re-usable Gowns and Drapes

3.8 © 2003

Thermal bonded (dry-laid), wet-laid and spunlaced products are used in Europe and Japan, while SMS (spunbonded/ meltblown/ spunbonded) laminated products are increasing their share of lightweight polypropylene nonwoven gown and drape production in the US. Viscose accounted for 25% of world nonwoven gowns and drapes consumption in 2000.

Coverstock

Absorbent hygiene products normally comprise a nonwoven coverstock top-layer, an absorbent pad of superabsorbent polymer or wood-pulp fibre (cotton or viscose in the case of tampons), and a liquid-proof backing sheet, either a plastic film or a further nonwoven. Whilst wood-pulp fibre used in cores has been excluded from our statistical analyses and forecasts, any cotton or viscose fibres used in tampons have been included in the coverstock figures.

The use of coverstock in absorbent hygiene products varies between both specific end-use and geographical market. For example, although thermally bonded carded webs account for the majority of coverstock for diapers made in Europe, with apertured film used in feminine hygiene products, spunbonds dominate in North America, in both product areas. However, spunbonds also now account for almost half the overall coverstock market in Western Europe.

Despite the fact that coverstock accounted for almost 10% of the viscose consumed within the Medtech area in the year 2000, the vast majority of coverstock is made from polypropylene, with viscose accounting for only about 2% of the total. Viscose is unlikely to gain further share of this market in the future.

Woundcare products

Woundcare is a very innovative area with attractive forecast growth rates, particularly for nonwoven products. Wound dressings are marketed in a vast array of types and sizes to suit various medical and surgical applications.

The products contained within this category include simple bandages as well as highly complex multi-layered products. The majority are generally composite products comprising a wound contact layer and a flexible base material with an absorbent pad sandwiched between. They are designed to protect against infection and damage, to promote healing and to absorb blood and other body fluids.

Viscose currently accounts for a little over 17% by weight of total fibres in the woundcare market (all fabric types), with a stronger position in nonwoven products.

3.4.3 Indutech: Textiles for use in Industrial Applications

Indutech is an extremely diverse application sector in terms of products, functions and end-uses ranging from lightweight nonwoven filters, knitted nets and brushes to heavyweight coated conveyor belting. In volume terms Indutech is the second largest consumer of viscose behind Medtech.

However, viscose usage in Indutech is dominated by two products: nonwoven wipes and nonwoven liquid filters, which, in the year 2000, accounted for 44% and 38% respectively of the viscose consumed within this application area (see Exhibit 3.9).

3.9 © 2003

Viscose Consumption, 2000 Products using

Viscose in Indutech


('000 tonnes)

Viscose share, 2000


Wipes, nonwoven

120.7 42.6% 51.4 44.1%

Liquid filters, nonwoven

97.6 45.0% 43.9 37.7%

Abrasives 60.3 10.2% 6.2 5.3%

Battery separators, etc.

133.8 4.0% 5.4 4.6%

Conveyor belts 96.9 4.0% 3.9 3.3%

Wipes, woven, knitted

60.4 5.0% 3.0 2.6%

Hoses 44.1 5.0% 2.2 1.9%

Drive belting 5.6 5.0% 0.3 0.3%

Fibrefill 47.3 0.5% 0.2 0.2%

Total 666.7 17.5% 116.5 100.0%


DRA forecast that nonwoven wipes and nonwoven liquid filters will increase their dominance of the Indutech application area, reaching a total share of almost 86% in the year 2010. As shown in Exhibit 3.10, below, nonwoven wipes are forecast to grow at the fastest rate, at an average of 9% per annum, whilst wipes produced from woven and knitted materials are forecast to grow the most slowly, with an average increase of 0.4% per annum.



Products using Viscose in Indutech '000 tonnes Share of


total (%)

Viscose CAGR

2000-2010 (%)

Wipes, nonwoven

51.4 44.1% 121.1 52.9% 9.0%

Battery separators, etc.

5.4 4.6% 11.1 4.9% 7.5%

Abrasives 6.2 5.3% 9.7 4.2% 6.4%

Liquid filters, nonwoven

43.9 37.7% 75.4 33.0% 5.6%

Drive belting 0.3 0.3% 0.4 0.2% 4.2%

Hoses 2.2 1.9% 3.1 1.4% 3.6%

Fibrefill 0.2 0.2% 0.3 0.1% 2.3%

Conveyor belts 3.9 3.3% 4.6 2.0% 1.6%


3.0 2.6% 3.1 1.4% 0.4%

Total 116.5 100.0% 228.8 100.0% 7.0%


Exhibit 3.10

Viscose Indutech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

Exhibit 3.9

Viscose Indutech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000

3.10 © 2003

Wipes

Wipes (nonwoven, woven and knitted) account for almost 47% of the viscose used in Indutech, with nonwoven wipes accounting for 44% and other wipes only 3%.

Although recent growth in the overall wipes market has been mostly in pre-moistened products for consumer applications, industrial wipes still represent an estimated 30% of the total wipe market and are expected to show strong growth rates in the future. These include dry and pre-moistened wipes used in areas such as manufacturing, food-service applications and cleanrooms.

Industrial wipes are increasingly being tailored to specific applications, in the automotive or aerospace industries for example, giving them an edge over traditional woven or rag-type products.

Nonwoven wipes are mainly air-laid. Where extra strength and durability are required, they may either be spunlaced or use a reinforcing scrim. A small volume are dry-laid. Air-laid wipes seem to be preferred in the North American market, while spunlaced wipes dominate in Europe. Both offer their own advantages: air-laid producers emphasise the value-oriented benefits of air-laid materials which are typically about 15% less expensive than spunlaced; manufacturers of spunlaced wipes promote their softness, strength, three-dimensionally and a close similarity to a conventional woven or knitted textile.

Fibres used in this application vary by region and include wood-pulp, viscose and polypropylene; in the year 2000, viscose accounted for almost 43% of fibre consumed overall by volume. In North America wood-pulp accounts for over half of the market for wipes while in Japan, Western Europe and the rest of the world viscose is the dominant fibre.

Liquid filters

Liquid filters accounted for almost 38% of viscose consumed in Indutech in the year 2000; consumption is forecast to grow to 75,400 tonnes in 2010, accounting for a slightly lower share (33%) as a result of the faster growth of wipes. In the year 2000, wet-laid viscose nonwovens accounted for 45% of the fibre consumed in this product category by volume, with the main competitors being wet-laid polyester and extruded polypropylene nonwovens.

Abrasives

Abrasive and polishing cloths are used in the rough-to-fine grinding stages of surface preparation both industrially and domestically. They are necessary for the production of many products: machines, vehicles and household products such as cutlery, scissors, porcelain, furniture, television screens etc.

The main types of backing for abrasive and polishing cloths are woven cloths made from polyester, cotton, viscose, nylon and silk (depending on the different grades and types of duty). Viscose spun yarn in woven form accounts for around 10% by volume of the product segment and is used largely in final polishing applications.

3.11 © 2003

3.4.4 Mobiltech: Transportation Textiles

Mobiltech embraces all those textile materials and products used in the construction, equipment and furnishing of all means of passenger and goods transportation, civil and military, by land, sea and air with the exception of certain leisure-related products such as boat covers. As shown in Exhibit 3.11, below, tyre cord of all types accounted for almost 96% of viscose consumed within Mobiltech in 2000.

Viscose Consumption, 2000 Products using Viscose in Mobiltech


('000 tonnes)

Viscose share, 2000


Car tyre cord 536.9 8.0% 42.8 57.1%

CV tyre cord 310.8 9.3% 28.8 38.5%

Auto hose 21.9 14.2% 3.1 4.1%

Auto drive belt 14.9 1.6% 0.2 0.3%

Total 884.5 8.5% 74.9 100.0%


As Exhibit 3.12 shows, the consumption of viscose within Mobiltech is forecast to decline slightly between the years 2000 and 2010. The use of viscose in car tyre cord is predicted to decline at an average of 0.9% per annum, in line with the overall market for car tyre cord, which is set to decline as tyre life is extended and textile usage per tyre declines. The consumption of viscose in commercial vehicle (CV) tyre cord, conversely, is forecast to decline despite an increase in the overall market; this reduction is a result of a forecast shift in favour of polyester.

Similarly, despite an increase in the overall market for automotive drive belts to 2010, the consumption of viscose is forecast to decline as a result of shifts in favour of polyamide and aramid (see Exhibit 3.12). Despite the apparently large percentage decline in viscose consumption in such drive belts, it is important to note that viscose accounted for less than 2% of the fibre consumed in this product in the year 2000.



Products using Viscose in Mobiltech '000 tonnes Share of


total (%)

Viscose CAGR

2000-2010 (%)

Auto hose 3.1 4.1% 3.6 5.0% 1.4%

CV tyre cord 28.8 38.5% 28.4 40.0% (0.2)%

Car tyre cord 42.8 57.1% 39.3 55.1% (0.9)%

Auto drive belt 0.2 0.3% 0.0 0.0% (17.9)%

Total 74.9 100.0% 71.3 100.0% (0.5)%


Exhibit 3.11

Viscose Mobiltech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000

Exhibit 3.12

Viscose Mobiltech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

3.12 © 2003

Exhibit 3.13: Fibre Shares in Tyre Cord Consumption, 2000

USA Western Europe

Polyester 65% 31%

Polyamide 33% 28%

Viscose 1% 40%

Aramids 1% 1%

Source: DRA Estimates from Trade Sources

Tyre cord

In 2000, global consumption of all fibres in tyre cord reached an estimated 848,000 tonnes. Polyester accounted for 38% of this with polyamide 53% and viscose 9% of the total. This figure includes all types of tyres: automotive, commercial vehicle, aircraft, motor-bike and bicycle. Passenger cars account for about two thirds of total tyre cord consumption. Europe has traditionally favoured viscose yarns because of their temperature performance at higher average road speeds, while Asia has preferred polyamide because of its better energy absorption characteristics on poor road surfaces. In the US market, polyester has provided a more economic solution to high mileage travel on good roads and at moderate speeds.

However, there is a marked change taking place in the regional use of fibres for tyre fabrics. Improving roads in Asia, lower speed limits in Europe and improved varieties of polyester have all combined to produce greater convergence towards polyester in tyre technologies world-wide.

This said, viscose looks set to maintain an important share in Western Europe as a result of its suitability for use in run-flat tyres; these tyres, when punctured, allow drivers to travel around 200 kilometres at up to 80 kilometres/hour without needing to be changed. Viscose, being non-thermoplastic, has a distinct advantage over polyester as a result of its ability to withstand the high temperatures resulting from significant tyre deformation resulting from such use.

3.4.5 Hometech: Furniture Components and Other Technical Textiles within the Home

Technical textiles play an essential role in the construction of many household textiles, furnishings and floorcoverings for both domestic (i.e. private home) consumption and for contract end uses (e.g. in hotels, hospitals, offices, restaurants etc). In the year 2000 nonwoven wipes for household use accounted for almost 62% of all viscose used in this application area, as shown in Exhibit 3.14, below:

Viscose Consumption, 2000 Products using Viscose in Hometech


('000 tonnes)

Viscose share, 2000


Wipes, nonwoven

73.0 46.2% 33.7 61.9%

Mattress tickings

119.4 13.2% 15.7 28.9%


73.4 5.0% 3.7 6.8%

Platform cloth 28.4 5.0% 1.4 2.6%

Total 294.2 18.5% 54.5 100.0%


Exhibit 3.14

Viscose Hometech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000

3.13 © 2003

Between 2000 and 2010, nonwoven wipes are forecast to exhibit the highest levels of growth within this application area, with an average annual rate of 10.4% (as shown in Exhibit 3.15). As a result of these high levels of growth, nonwoven wipes are forecast to increase their share of viscose consumption in Hometech to more than 76% by 2010.

The consumption of viscose in woven and knitted wipes, conversely, is forecast to decline by an average rate of 0.4% per annum as nonwovens take an increased share of the wipes market.


2000 Viscose Consumption,

2010 Products using Viscose in Hometech '000 tonnes Share of


total (%)

Viscose CAGR

2000-2010 (%)

Wipes, nonwoven

33.7 61.9% 90.8 76.4% 10.4%

Mattress tickings

15.7 28.9% 22.6 19.0% 3.7%

Platform cloth 1.4 2.6% 2.0 1.7% 3.5%


3.7 6.8% 3.5 2.9% (0.4)%

Total 54.5 100.0% 118.9 100.0% 8.1%


Wipes

Domestic cleaning materials are using increasing volumes of nonwoven materials. In the area of flat wipes, nonwoven synthetics are slowly taking share from traditional woven natural fibres (e.g. leno woven floorcloths) in developed markets, although waste matrials are still used in large volumes in many other regions. Nonwoven domestic cleaning products comprise mainly anti-bacterial hard surface wipes (e.g. Cif Wipes, Clorox) and electrostatic wipes for attracting dust. These products have experienced very high levels of growth in Western markets over recent years and growth looks set to continue over the next few years. Spunlaced and air-laid technologies account for the majority of these markets.

Mattress tickings

Woven mattress tickings are dominated by polyester with multifilament viscose used to provide 'shine' in more expensive jacquard woven tickings, accounting for around 13% of the market in 2000. Nonwoven polyester materials are used in the production of lower cost mattresses.

3.4.6 Clothtech: Clothing Components

The Clothtech sector covers those textile products which represent functional (and largely hidden) components of clothing and footwear such as interlinings, sewing thread, insulating fibrefill and waddings. Viscose in nonwoven interlinings accounted for two-thirds of that consumed in Clothtech, with woven and knitted interlinings accounting for the remainder.

Exhibit 3.15

Viscose Hometech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

3.14 © 2003

Viscose Consumption, 2000 Products using Viscose in Clothtech


('000 tonnes)

Viscose share, 2000


Interlinings, nonwoven

139.8 20.0% 28.0 66.7%

Interlinings, woven & knitted

139.8 10.0% 14.0 33.3%

Total 279.7 15.0% 41.9 100.0%


As can be seen in Exhibit 3.17, however, nonwoven interlinings will increase their share of viscose consumption within this application area to more than 75% by 2010. This is due to a growing preference for nonwoven interlinings over those made from woven and knitted materials, rather than any change in underlying fibre shares.



Products using Viscose in Clothtech '000 tonnes Share of


total (%)

Viscose CAGR

2000-2010 (%)

Interlinings, nonwoven

28.0 66.7% 44.1 75.3% 4.7%

Interlinings, woven & knitted

14.0 33.3% 14.5 24.7% 0.4%

Total 41.9 100.0% 58.6 100.0% 3.4%


The variety of interlining products and applications is considerable. Applications include men's and women's tailored garments (lapels, cuffs, collars, jacket fronts, pocket stays, chest pieces, etc) and ladies' skirts, dresses and other outerwear garments. Interlinings can take many different forms according to garment type, precise function required, face fabric construction, weight, performance, etc.

A wide range of fibres is used in interlinings. Woven interlining fabrics commonly comprise a cotton warp with a resinated viscose weft (for fusing), while linen and wool are also used; nylon may be added to improve durability. Knitted products typically involve a viscose or polyester yarn weft-inserted across a warp knitted nylon.

Polyester is the dominant fibre in nonwoven interlinings, mostly in dry-laid form. Of the nonwoven interlinings containing viscose, three-quarters are produced using dry-laid technology with the remainder being wet-laid.

3.4.7 Sporttech: Textiles for Sports and Leisure Applications

Increasing worldwide interest and participation in active sports and outdoor leisure pursuits have resulted in strong historical growth in the consumption of textile materials in sporting and related goods and equipment. In many instances, synthetic materials have largely replaced traditional cotton fabrics and other natural fibres.

As can be seen in Exhibit 3.18, viscose is a not a major player within the Sporttech application area, with the fibre having a major share of only one segment, bookcloth. In the case of artificial leather substrates, the segment is heavily dominated by polyester.

Exhibit 3.17

Viscose Clothtech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

Exhibit 3.16

Viscose Clothtech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000

3.15 © 2003

Viscose consumption in the Sporttech application area is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 3.1%; the shares held by the two constituent products is forecast to remain almost static, as seen in Exhibit 3.19.

Viscose Consumption, 2000 Products using Viscose in Sporttech


('000 tonnes)

Viscose share, 2000


Bookcloth 8.7 15.0% 1.3 52.0%

Artificial leather substrates

59.4 2.0% 1.2 48.0%

Total 68.1 3.7% 2.5 100.0%




Products using Viscose in Sporttech '000 tonnes Share of


total (%)

Viscose CAGR

2000-2010 (%)

Bookcloth 1.3 52.0% 1.8 52.9% 3.3%


1.2 48.0% 1.6 47.1% 2.9%

Total 2.5 100.0% 3.4 100.0% 3.1%


3.4.8 Protech: Protective Clothing

Protech encompasses all those textile materials used in the production of protective clothing of various types. Protech is the smallest application area in terms of the amount of viscose consumed, accounting for less than 1,000 tonnes in the year 2000.

Viscose Consumption, 2000 Products using Viscose in Protech


('000 tonnes)

Viscose share, 2000


FR clothing 27.0 3.4% 0.9 98.9%

NBC clothing 0.5 1.8% 0.0* 1.1%

Total 27.5 3.3% 0.9 100.0%

* = < 50 tonnes Source: DRA, taken from Table 4.5.

As seen in Exhibit 3.20, the share held by viscose of each of the two constituent products, flame retardant (FR) clothing and Nuclear, Biological, Chemical (NBC) clothing, is small when compared to the majority of other product categories. Viscose is largely used in a blend with other fibres in products which form a small proportion of the overall market. Both of these two types of garments have a low replenishment rate, hence the relatively low annual market volumes.

Exhibit 3.19

Viscose Sporttech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

Exhibit 3.18

Viscose Sporttech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000

Exhibit 3.20

Viscose Protech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000

3.16 © 2003



Products using Viscose in Protech '000 tonnes Share of


total (%)

Viscose CAGR

2000-2010 (%)

FR clothing 0.9 98.9% 1.2 99.0% 2.7%

NBC clothing 0.0* 1.1% 0.0* 1.0% 2.4%

Total 0.9 100.0% 1.2 100.0% 2.7%

* = < 50 tonnes Source: DRA, taken from Table 4.5.

Flame retardant and heat resistant clothing

Clothing which provides protection against fire and high temperatures can be segmented into primary and secondary types. Primary protective clothing is worn for activities where significant exposure to molten substance splash, radiant heat and flames is likely, e.g. blast furnace aprons, fire-fighter turnout gear and fire entry suits. Secondary protective clothing is designed for continuous protection from possible intermittent exposure to molten substance splash, radiant heat or flame, e.g. continuously worn flame retardant uniforms.

The majority of fire-fighters' turnout gear is based on a meta-aramid derivative of some kind, such as Nomex or Kermel. Other examples include Celanese's Pbi which is more expensive than other fibres but is more durable. Viscose is used largely as a minority blend in different types of flame retardant and heat resistant clothing, including firemen's turn-out gear, riot police clothing, etc. These can employ flame retardant viscose variants (Lenzing FR being the most prominent) blended with meta-aramid fibres such as Kermel.

Reflective garments made from aluminised viscose are worn in work environments such as metal foundries where workers are subject to high levels of radiant heat.

Flame retardant military clothing is designed to protect the wearer from flames or heat, often in confined environments such as inside a tank or an armoured personnel carrier, in the event of being struck by a missile or driving over a land mine. Such clothing uses a wide variety of materials including FR cotton, FR viscose and both para- and meta-aramids.

Garments made from flame retardant cotton and cotton blends dominate in lower performance applications. In these areas, emphasis is being placed on the increased provision of comfort for the wearer, through the inclusion of fibres such as lyocell or FR viscose.

NBC protection

Garments used in NBC protection by the armed forces and other civil defence organisations employ a wide variety of designs and materials, with different countries often adopting quite different approaches. The last few years has seen a considerable amount of development work being carried out.

Aside from some impermeable (butyl) fabrics used for gloves, masks and some decontamination suits, most military combat designs are based on multi-layered constructions consisting of a woven or knitted textile outer shell and an activated carbon-bearing inner fabric. The resulting composite fabrics are required to provide some

Exhibit 3.21

Viscose Protech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

3.17 © 2003

protection against fire, nuclear flash and water and liquid penetration whilst also remaining lightweight and breathable enough for use during strenuous activity.

Outer materials used include 50% nylon/50% cotton in the United States, and nylon warp/modacrylic weft in the UK. Flame retardant viscose is used by certain countries' armed forces as a majority fibre in blends with aramids.

3.4.9 Which Viscose Fibre Forms (Yarn Types) are used in which Products

The following Exhibits are derived from Tables 4.6 to 4.11 and compare the highest volume viscose products for each relevant fibre form (yarn type) in 2000.

Staple fibre

End-Use Product

Viscose Volume, 2000 ('000 tonnes)

Percentage Share of Total Viscose Staple

Fibre

Cumulative Percentage

Medtech Wipes 97.6 28% 28% Indutech Nonwoven Wipes 51.4 15% 43% Indutech Nonwoven Liquid Filters 43.9 13% 56% Hometech Nonwoven Wipes 33.7 10% 66% Medtech Cotton Wool 31.1 9% 75% Clothtech Interlinings, Nonwoven 28.0 8% 83% Others (7) 60.7 18% 100% Total Staple Fibre 346.4 100% 100%


The market for unspun staple viscose fibre is large and accounted for more than 70% of total viscose consumed within technical textiles in 2000. Its use is relatively fragmented, compared to other viscose fibre forms, with six products accounting for 80 per cent of fibre used (see Exhibit 3.22) and a further seven products accounting for the balance. Nonwoven wipes accounted for more than half of all unspun viscose staple fibre consumed in 2000.

Spun staple yarns

End-Use Product


Percentage Share of Total Spun Staple

Viscose


Medtech Woundcare Woven, Knitted

15.9 49% 49%

Indutech Abrasives 6.2 19% 68% Hometech Woven Wipes 3.7 11% 79% Others (5) 6.6 20% 100% Total Spun Staple 32.4 100% 100%


Viscose used in spun staple yarns accounted for less than 7% of total viscose used in technical textiles applications in 2000. The consumption of spun staple yarns is very concentrated with 3 products accounting for nearly 80 per cent (see Exhibit 3.23), with five products accounting for the remainder. Of the total volume, almost half was used in woven and knitted woundcare products.

Exhibit 3.22

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Staple Fibre Form, by Product, 2000

Exhibit 3.23

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Spun Staple Form, by Product, 2000

3.18 © 2003


End-Use Product


Percentage Share of Total Viscose Textile Multifilament


Hometech Mattress Tickings 15.7 53% 53% Clothtech Interlinings, Woven 14.0 47% 100% Total Textile Multifilament 29.7 100% 100%


Textile viscose multifilament yarns accounted for just over 6% of viscose used in technical textiles in 2000. Its use is limited to two products; woven interlinings and mattress tickings, each account for approximately half of the volume consumed (see Exhibit 3.24).

HT multifilament

End-Use Product


Percentage Share of

Viscose HT Multifilament


Mobiltech Car Tyre Cord 42.8 53% 53% Mobiltech CV Tyre Cord 28.8 35% 88% Others (5) 9.8 12% 100% Total HT Multifilament 81.4 100% 100%

Source: DRA, taken from Table 4.11

High tenacity multifilament viscose yarns accounted for almost 17% of viscose consumed in technical textiles applications in the year 2000. This segment was dominated by car tyre cord which accounted for more than half of HT viscose consumed. Tyre cord of all types accounted for almost 90 per cent of the HT multifilament viscose consumed, with a further five products accounting for the balance (see Exhibit 3.25).

3.5 THE HIGHEST VOLUME AND FASTEST GROWING VISCOSE END-USES

3.5.1 Highest Volume End-Use Products

Exhibit 3.26, below, provides an analysis of the ten highest volume viscose consuming end-use product segments of the technical textiles market. In 2000, the top six (i.e. 20% of all products which include viscose) accounted for more than 60% of viscose consumed in technical applications. In 2010, these same six products are forecast to account for more than 70%, indicating a continuing concentration of viscose consumption within a limited number of end-use product segments.

Exhibit 3.24

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Textile Multifilament Form, by Product, 2000

Exhibit 3.25

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in HT Multifilament Form, by Product, 2000

3.19 © 2003

Viscose Consumption, 2000 Viscose Consumption, 2010 End-Use Product Volume

('000 tonnes) Share of Total Viscose (%)

Volume ('000 tonnes)

Share of Total Viscose (%)

Medtech: Wipes 97.6 19.9% 269.8 30.3%

Indutech: Nonwoven wipes

51.4 10.5% 121.1 13.6%

Indutech: Nonwoven liquid filters

43.9 9.0% 75.4 8.5%

Mobiltech: Car tyre cord

42.8 8.7% 39.3 4.4%

Hometech: Nonwoven wipes

33.7 6.9% 90.8 10.2%

Medtech: Cotton wool

31.1 6.3% 35.0 3.9%

Mobiltech: CV tyre cord

28.8 5.9% 28.4 3.2%


28.0 5.7% 44.1 5.0%

Medtech: Nonwoven gowns, drapes

23.4 4.8% 37.4 4.2%

Medtech: Coverstock

17.9 3.7% 25.6 2.9%

Others (20) 91.3 18.6% 122.9 13.8%

Total 489.9 100.0% 889.8 100.0%


Nonwoven wipes across all end-uses (Medtech, Indutech, Hometech) accounted for 37.3% of the viscose used in technical textiles in 2000; this percentage is forecast to rise to more than 54% (480,500 tonnes) by 2010, having grown at an average annual rate of 10.2% over the decade. Viscose is also forecast to take some market share from wood-pulp over this period, increasing its share of all nonwoven wipes from 48% in 2000 to 52% in 2010.

Nonwoven wipes will account for almost 70% of all nonwoven viscose by 2010. Medtech wipes alone accounted for almost one-fifth of all viscose used in technical textiles in the year 2000; this will rise to almost one-third by the year 2010.

Whilst tyre cord of all types accounted for 14.6 % of viscose in the year 2000 by weight, this share is forecast to decline to 7.6% by 2010 as a result of a shift in favour of polyester and a slowing down of markets for tyre cord in general.

Exhibit 3.26

Highest Volume Viscose Products in Technical Textiles, 2000, in Descending Order of Size

3.20 © 2003

3.5.2 Fastest-Growing End-Use Products

As can be seen in Exhibit 3.27, only 5 products exceed viscose's average annual growth of 6.2% over the 2000-2010 period.

Viscose Volume ('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product

2000 2010

CAGR 2000-2010

(%)

Medtech: Wipes 97.6 269.8 10.7%

Hometech: Nonwoven wipes 33.7 90.8 10.4%

Indutech: Nonwoven wipes 51.4 121.1 9.0%

Medtech: Woundcare, nonwoven 5.4 11.6 8.0%

Indutech: Battery separators, etc 5.4 11.1 7.5%

Indutech: Nonwoven liquid filters 43.9 75.4 5.6%

Medtech: Nonwoven gowns, drapes 23.4 37.4 4.8%

Clothtech: Interlinings, nonwoven 28.0 44.1 4.7%

Indutech: Abrasives 6.2 9.7 4.6%

Medtech: Sterile packaging 7.2 11.2 4.4%

Others (20) 187.7 208.0 1.0%

TOTAL 489.9 889.8 6.2%


Wipes represent the fastest growing use for viscose within technical applications.

Exhibit 3.28, below, shows the growth rate from 2000 to 2010 for all technical textiles products containing viscose. Nonwoven end-use products (shown in purple in the Exhibit) offer the highest forecast growth rates for viscose technical textiles, accounting for nine out of the ten fastest growing end-uses. Woven and knitted products (shown in grey) on the other hand offer the least opportunity for growth, accounting for nine out of the ten slowest growing (and declining) end-use segments.

Exhibit 3.27

Fastest Growing Viscose Products in Technical Textiles between 2000 and 2010 in Descending Growth Rate Order

3.21 © 2003

(20.0)% (10.0)% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%

Mobiltech AutoBelt

Mobiltech Car tyre-cord

Hometech Woven, Knit Wipes

Mobiltech CV tyre-cord

Indutech Woven, Knit Wipes

Clothtech Interlinings, woven

Medtech Woundcare Woven, Knit

Medtech Cotton Wool

Mobiltech AutoHose

Indutech Conveyor Belt

Indutech Fibrefill

Protech NBC

Protech FR Clothing

Sporttech Artificial Leather Substrates

Sporttech Bookcloth

Hometech Platform Cloth

Indutech Hoses

Medtech Coverstock

Hometech Mattress Tickings

Indutech Drive Belting

Medtech Sterile Packaging

Indutech Abrasives

Clothtech Interlinings, nonwoven

Medtech Nonwoven gowns, drapes

Indutech NW Liquid Filters

Indutech Battery Separators, etc

Medtech Woundcare NW

Indutech Nonwoven Wipes

Hometech Nonwoven Wipes

Medtech Wipes

CAGR 2000 - 2010 (%)

Key: Nonwoven products are shown in purple. Woven, knitted and other products are shown in grey. Source: DRA (see Table 4.5 for further detail).

3.5.3 Analysis of End-Use Products by Size and Growth Rate

Exhibit 3.29, overleaf, segments the 30 end-use products containing viscose according to their relative size in 2000 and the rate at which they are forecast to grow between 2000 and 2010.

The Exhibit indicates that there are only 6 products which are growing rapidly (i.e. over 5% per annum). Of those products, only 4 (shown in the top right box) are consumed in volumes above the average for viscose overall of 16,000 tonnes; 3 of these are nonwoven wipes.

Almost two-thirds of the products are classed as being relatively small volume products with low or negative forecast growth rates (shown in the bottom left box). Six products are consumed in relatively high volumes, but are classed as being mature or maturing in both market and product development terms, with relatively low prospects for further growth in the future (shown in the bottom right box).

Exhibit 3.28

Average Annual Growth Rates by End-Use for Viscose in Technical Textiles, 2000 to 2010 (Volume Terms)

3.22 © 2003

Specialist, small volume products with good future growth prospects

Products with currently high consumption levels that are forecast

to continue to grow rapidly

Indutech: Battery separators, etc. Hometech: Nonwoven wipes

Medtech: Woundcare, nonwoven Indutech: Nonwoven wipes

Nonwoven liquid filters

(2 Products) Medtech: Wipes

(4 Products)

Forecast to remain low volume products

Maturing bulk products with low forecast growth

Clothtech: Woven & knitted interlinings Clothtech: Nonwoven interlinings

Hometech: Woven & knitted wipes Medtech: Nonwoven gowns & drapes

Mattress tickings Coverstock

Platform cloth Cotton wool

Indutech: Conveyor belt Mobiltech: Car tyre cord

Hoses CV tyre cord

Drive belting

Abrasives (6 Products) Woven & knitted wipes

Fibrefill

Medtech: Woundcare, woven & knitted

Sterile packaging

Mobiltech: Autobelt

Autohose

Protech: FR clothing

NBC clothing

Sporttech: Bookcloth


(18 Products)

Source: DRA

Product Consumption Level, 2000 ('000 tonnes)

Com

poun

d A

vera

ge G

row

th R

ates

(C

AG

R%

) 20

00 -

201

0

11%

Exhibit 3.29

Matrix of Forecast Growth Rates for Viscose Products, 2000 to 2010, by Market Size, 2000

5%

100

low

/ ne

gati

ve

16 0

3.23 © 2003

3.5.4 Inter-fibre Competition at the Product Level

Growth in viscose consumption can be attributed to two different factors:

• underlying growth in demand for the individual end-use products in which viscose competes

• increased competitiveness of viscose at the individual product level, resulting in increased market share for viscose at the expense of other fibre types.

Exhibit 3.30, below, analyses the forecast growth rates for viscose end-use products from 2000 to 2010. Over this period, viscose consumption is forecast to grow in total by 81.6%. Growth attributable to underlying changes in demand levels of those products containing viscose accounts for 76.1%. The remaining 5.5% growth is a result of viscose gaining market share in a number of product market segments, in particular nonwoven wipes.

Of which: Total Growth in Demand for Viscose in Technical

Textiles Caused by Growth in Volumes of

Product/Markets Containing Viscose

Caused by a Net Increase in Viscose's Market Share

81.6% 76.1% 5.5%

Source: DRA

Exhibit 3.31, below, looks at the underlying causes of growth in demand for the ten products containing viscose forecast to exhibit the fastest growth between 2000 and 2010.

It reveals that there are only a few cases where growth is due to an increase in the fibre's market share between 2000 and 2010; for the most part, growth is attributable largely to overall growth in the relevant product markets.

Exhibit 3.30

Analysis of Increase in Viscose Demand between 2000 and 2010

3.24 © 2003

Of which:

End-Use Products

Total Increase in

Viscose Volumes

2000-2010 ('000

tonnes)

Caused by Growth in Product/ Markets Overall

Caused by Changes in Viscose's Market Share

Main Competing

Fibre

Medtech: Wipes 172.2 149.9 22.3 Wood-pulp

Hometech: Nonwoven wipes

57.1 53.3 3.8 Polypropylene

Indutech: Nonwoven wipes 69.7 58.5 11.2 Polypropylene

Medtech: Nonwoven woundcare

6.2 6.2 0.0 Polyester

Indutech: Battery separators, etc.

5.7 5.7 0.0 Glass

Indutech: Nonwoven liquid filters

31.5 31.5 0.0 Polyester

Medtech: Nonwoven gowns, drapes

14.0 14.0 0.0 Polyester


16.1 16.1 0.0 Polyester

Indutech: Abrasives

3.5 3.7 -0.2 Polyester

Medtech: Sterile packaging

4.0 4.0 0.0 Polyester

Source: DRA

Viscose is gaining global share in all three nonwoven wipes categories (Medtech, Hometech and Indutech). This forecast change in share is a result of predicted changes in the regional distribution of consumption. The percentage share held by viscose in these wipes products is not changing on an individual regional basis, but high forecast increases in the consumption of wipes in a number of the less developed regions (Eastern Europe, South America, South Asia and South East Asia), where viscose holds an above average share of the market, will be sufficient to increase viscose's share on a global basis.

In the case of abrasives, despite the high levels of growth, viscose is actually forecast to lose market share as a result of predicted changes in the regional distribution of demand.

In the case of the other fastest growing products containing viscose, the growth in viscose consumption is directly attributable to forecast increases in the overall demand for the end-use products.

Exhibit 3.31

Market Growth Trends and Market Share Changes for Viscose between 2000 and 2010 for the 10 Fastest Growing Viscose End-Use Products ('000 tonnes)

3.25 © 2003

3.6 END-USE CONSUMPTION OF VISCOSE BY REGION

3.6.1 Regional Split of all Viscose

As can be seen in Exhibit 3.32, below, the regional consumption of viscose is dominated by Western Europe which accounted for almost half of the total volume in the year 2000. The second largest consumer was North America which accounted for over one-fifth, closely followed by North East Asia.

W. Europe44.4%

S. America3.8%

N. America22.2%

ROW4.0%

S.E. Asia2.0%N.E. Asia

18.7%

S.Asia2.5%

E. Europe2.5%


By the year 2010 North East Asia will have increased its share of consumption to become the second largest consuming region behind Western Europe. Overall viscose consumption is forecast to become more evenly distributed with many of the smaller regions doubling their share of consumption over the same period (see Exhibit 3.33).

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

N. Ameri

ca

S. Ameri

ca

W. E

urop

e

E. Eu

rope

S.Asia

N.E. A

sia

S.E. A

siaROW

'000

tonn

es

20002010


Exhibit 3.32

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

Exhibit 3.33

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

Region

3.26 © 2003

3.6.2 Geographical Distribution of Different Viscose Fibre Forms (Yarn Types)

The following Exhibits in this Section are derived from Tables 4.34 and 4.35. A full analysis of different viscose fibre forms by region from 1995 to 2010 can be found in Tables 4.36 to 4.39.

Staple fibre

It is not surprising that the regional consumption of viscose staple fibre mirrors quite closely that of total consumption, given that unspun staple fibre accounts for such a large proportion of the amount of viscose consumed in technical applications (as shown in Exhibit 3.34).

S. Asia2.6%

E. Europe2.4%

N. E. Asia20.4%

S. E. Asia2.0%

ROW4.0%

W. Europe39.4%

N. America25.5%

S. America3.7%


As shown in Exhibit 3.35, below, North East Asia is forecast to overtake North America as the second largest consumer of unspun staple viscose in technical textiles, behind Western Europe, by 2010. Similarly, consumption is forecast to become more evenly distributed as some of the smaller regions gain share; South Asia is a notable example, growing at an average annual rate of 16%.

0

50

100

150

200

250

N. Ameri

ca

S. Ameri

ca

W. E

urop

e

E. Eu

rope

S. Asia

N. E. A

sia

S. E.

AsiaROW

'000

ton

nes

2000

2010


Exhibit 3.34

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose Staple Fibre in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

Exhibit 3.35

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose Staple Fibre in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

Region

3.27 © 2003

Spun staple yarns

The regional consumption of spun staple viscose is more fragmented than other fibre forms. In this case, North America is the largest consumer, followed by Western Europe.

W. Europe25.7%

E. Europe3.8%

S. Asia4.2%

N. E. Asia21.9%

S. E. Asia3.4%

ROW6.6% N. America

28.8%

S. America5.7%


North East Asia is again forecast to become the second largest consumer by 2010, this time at the expense of Western Europe, as shown in Exhibit 3.37, below.

0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

N. Ameri

ca

S. Ameri

ca

W. E

urop

e

E. Eu

rope

S. Asia

N. E. A

sia

S. E.

AsiaROW

'000

ton

nes

2000

2010


Exhibit 3.36

World End-Use Consumption of Spun Staple Viscose Fibre in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

Exhibit 3.37

World End-Use Consumption of Spun Staple Viscose Fibre in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

Region

3.28 © 2003


Exhibit 3.38 illustrates the regional consumption of regular tenacity viscose multifilament yarns in 2000. North East Asia was the largest consuming region of textile multfilament viscose, largely as a result of the trend for woven interlinings to be produced in the region in which they are consumed in clothing production.

N. E. Asia23.7% S. America

8.4%

N. America21.9%

W. Europe23.3%

E. Europe4.9%

S. Asia5.3%

S. E. Asia4.0%

ROW8.4%


As shown in Exhibit 3.39, between 2000 and 2010, North East Asia is set to retain its position as the largest consumer of multifilament viscose, whilst North America is forecast to overtake Western Europe to become the second largest consumer.

0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

N. Ameri

ca

S. Ameri

ca

W. E

urop

e

E. Eu

rope

S. Asia

N. E. A

sia

S. E.

AsiaROW

'000

ton

nes

2000

2010


Exhibit 3.38

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose Textile Multifilament in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

Exhibit 3.39

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose Textile Multifilament in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

Region

3.29 © 2003

HT multifilament

As shown in Exhibit 3.40, the consumption of high tenacity multifilament is far more concentrated than the other fibre form types, with Western Europe dominating consumption with an 81% share in the year 2000. The reason for this particular regional distribution is the historical preference for viscose within car tyre cord in Western Europe, as discussed earlier in this Chapter.

W. Europe81%

S. America2%

N. America5%

E. Europe2%

N. E. Asia8%

S. Asia0%

S. E. Asia1%

ROW1%


As Exhibit 3.41 illustrates, DRA forecasts that up to the year 2010 Western Europe will retain its position as the largest consuming region, but that it will have lost some share of the world market to North East Asia as a result of the trend in Western Europe towards polyester in tyre cords.

0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

N. Ameri

ca

S. Ameri

ca

W. E

urop

e

E. Eu

rope

S. Asia

N. E. A

sia

S. E.

AsiaROW

'000

ton

nes

2000

2010


Exhibit 3.40

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose HT Multifilament in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

Exhibit 3.41

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose HT Multifilament in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

Region

3.30 © 2003

3.7 END-USE CONSUMPTION OF VISCOSE BY FABRIC AND OTHER FINAL TEXTILE PRODUCT TYPE

3.7.1 Overall Split of Viscose Consumption by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product

Exhibit 3.42 shows the consumption of viscose in technical textiles by fabric and other final textile product type in 2000. It can be seen quite clearly that nonwovens dominate the use of viscose, accounting for almost two-thirds of volume.

Unspun fibre6%

Yarn type products

0%

Other fabrics0%

Nonwoven65%

Woven26%

Knitted3%


In 2000 woven fabrics accounted for over a quarter of viscose consumed with 26%, whilst the remainder was accounted for by unspun fibre (6%), knitted fabrics (3%) and yarn type products such as hoses with less than 1%.

Exhibit 3.43 shows the estimated consumption of viscose in technical textiles by fabric type in 2000 and forecasts for 2010.


Exhibit 3.42

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Unspu

n fibr

e

Wov

en

Knitted

Nonwov

en

Yarn ty

pe pr

oduc

ts

Other

fabric

s

Vol

ume

('00

0 to

nnes

)

2000

2010

Exhibit 3.43

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

Fabric and Other Final Textile Product

3.31 © 2003

As can be seen from this Exhibit, the consumption of viscose in the form of nonwovens is forecast to increase dramatically by an average annual rate of 8.3%. As mentioned previously, this is the result of high growth rates forecast for nonwoven wipes.

Very little growth is forecast for the use of viscose in all other fabric types.

3.7.2 Which Viscose Fabric Types are used in which Products

Unspun fibre

End-Use Product


Percentage Share of Total

Unspun Viscose Fibre


Medtech Cotton wool 31.1 99% 99% Indutech Fibrefill 0.2 1% 100% Total Unspun Fibre 31.3 100% 100%

Source: DRA

Although 70% of viscose fibre used in technical applications is not converted into yarn, only 6% (31,300 tonnes) remains as loose, unspun fibre for cotton wool and fibrefill, the balance being made into carded nonwovens (see Exhibit 3.42). Cotton wool dominates unspun fibre consumption, accounting for almost all of the total volume.

As can be seen in Table 4.40 in Chapter 4 of this report, North America and Western Europe accounted for 79% of the total consumption of viscose in unspun fibre form in the year 2000. This is forecast to fall to 67% by 2010 as a result of growth in other regions, most notably North East Asia.

Woven fabrics

End-Use Product



Woven Viscose


Mobiltech Car tyre cord 42.8 33% 33% Mobiltech CV tyre cord 28.8 22% 55% Hometech Mattress tickings 15.7 12% 67% Medtech Woundcare, woven 12.7 10% 77% Clothtech Interlinings, woven 7.0 5% 82% Others (12) 22.3 17% 100% Total Woven Fabric 129.3 100% 100%

Source: DRA

Woven viscose accounted for 26.4% of viscose consumption in 2000. Of this, tyre cord, for use in both cars and other vehicles, accounted for a little over a half.

As can be seen in Table 4.40, Western Europe dominated the consumption of woven viscose fabrics in the year 2000, accounting for 60% of the total. By the year 2010, North East Asia is forecast to become the second largest consumer of viscose in woven fabrics at the expense of North America.

Exhibit 3.44

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Unspun Fibre Form, by Product, 2000

Exhibit 3.45

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Woven Fabric Form, by Product, 2000

3.32 © 2003

Knitted fabrics

End-Use Product



Knitted Viscose


Clothtech Interlinings, knitted 7.0 55% 55% Medtech Woundcare, knitted 3.2 25% 80% Others (4) 2.6 20% 100% Total Knitted Fabric 12.8 100% 100%

Source: DRA

Viscose knitted fabrics amounted to 12,800 tonnes in 2000, accounting for less than 3% of the total technical viscose consumption; more than half of this was used in knitted interlinings. Interlinings and woundcare between them accounted for 80% of the volume of knitted viscose consumed in 2000.

As shown in Table 4.40, North East Asia was the largest consumer of viscose in knitted fabrics, accounting for 26% in 2000. By the year 2010, the consumption is forecast to become more fragmented, with regions such as North America and Western Europe losing share to smaller consuming regions such as South America, Eastern Europe and South Asia.

Nonwoven fabrics

End-Use Product



Nonwoven Viscose


Medtech Wipes 97.6 31% 31% Indutech Nonwoven wipes 51.4 16% 47% Indutech NW liquid filters 43.9 14% 61% Hometech Nonwoven wipes 33.7 11% 72% Clothtech Interlinings, nonwoven 28.0 9% 81% Others (6) 60.5 19% 100% Total Nonwoven Fabric 315.1 100% 100%

Source: DRA

The consumption of viscose in the form of carded nonwovens accounted for almost two-thirds of the total volume of viscose consumed in technical textiles in 2000. The largest individual nonwoven product is medical wipes which accounted for almost one-third of total nonwovens in 2000 by weight; nonwoven wipe products in total accounted for 58% of all nonwoven viscose products.

As mentioned previously, viscose nonwovens are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 8.3% between 2000 and 2010. As can be seen in Table 4.40, Western Europe accounted for 40% of nonwoven viscose consumed in the year 2000, followed by North America with 24%. Whilst Western Europe will remain the largest consumer of nonwoven materials in 2010, the highest growth rates will be seen in less developed areas such as Eastern Europe, Asia and South America. The lowest growth rates will occur in North America.

Exhibit 3.46

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Knitted Fabric Form, by Product, 2000

Exhibit 3.47

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Nonwoven Fabric Form, by Product, 2000

3.33 © 2003

Yarn type products

End-Use Product


Percentage Share of Total Viscose Yarn

Type Products


Mobiltech Autohose 1.1 65% 65% Indutech Hoses 0.6 35% 100% Total Yarn Type Products 1.7 100% 100%

Source: DRA

Yarn type products account for a very small percentage of viscose consumption in technical textiles (0.3%), all of which were used in hoses of one type or another. Hoses used in vehicles accounted for almost two-thirds of yarn type product consumption in 2000.

As shown in Table 3.40, Western Europe was the largest consumer of yarn type viscose products in the year 2000, accounting for 29% of the total volume, with North America and North East Asia each accounting for 21%. By the year 2010, North East Asia is forecast to increase its share of consumption, to 23.5%, alongside that of Western Europe. This will be at the expense of North America, whose share of consumption is forecast to fall to 18%.

Exhibit 3.48

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Yarn Type Form, by Product, 2000

4.1 © 2003

4. VISCOSE END-USE PRODUCTS: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES

The following detailed Tables are derived from the technical textiles partition of the DRA Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System.

Part A - Viscose World Totals, 1995-2010

Tables 4.1 to 4.5

These Tables provide estimates of world viscose consumption by each of 8 polymer/fibre forms, 6 fabric and final textile product types, 8 regions of the world and 11 application areas, for 1995 and annually from 2000 to 2010. They then analyse world consumption for each of the 30 viscose end-use products over the period 1995-2010.

Part B - End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Polymer/ Fibre Form (Yarn Type)

Tables 4.6 to 4.11

These Tables provide estimates of demand for each viscose end-use product across each of 8 polymer/fibre forms in 2000 and 2010 and then provides estimates for 1995 and annually from 2000 to 2010 for each of the 4 relevant fibre forms.

Part C - End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Region

Tables 4.12 to 4.20

These Tables provide estimates of demand for each viscose end-use product across each of 8 regions of the world in 2000 and 2010 and then provide estimates for 1995 and annually from 2000 to 2010 for each of the 7 largest regions.

Part D - End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type

Tables 4.21 to 4.27

These Tables provide estimates of the use of each of 6 fabric and other final textile product types in each of the 30 viscose end-use products in 2000 and 2010 and then provides estimates for 1995 and annually from 2000 to 2010 for each of the 5 relevant fabric and other final textile product types.

Part E - End-Use Consumption Analysis by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type against Polymer/Fibre Form (Yarn Type)

Tables 4.28 to 4.33

These Tables provide estimates of the use of each of 6 fabric and other final textile product types against each of the 8 polymer/fibre forms in 2000 and 2010 for viscose overall and then provide estimates for 1995 and annually from 2000 to 2010 for each of the 4 relevant fibre forms separately against all the fabric and final textile product types.

4.2 © 2003

Part F - End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region against Polymer/Fibre Form (Yarn Type)

Tables 4.34 to 4.39

These Tables provide estimates of the use of each of the 8 polymer/fibre forms in each of the 8 regions of the world in 2000 and 2010 for viscose overall, and then provide regional estimates for 1995 and annually from 2000 to 2010 for each of the 4 relevant fibre forms, separately.

Part G - End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region against Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type

Tables 4.40 to 4.46

These Tables provide estimates of the use of each of the 6 fabric and final textile product types in each of the 8 regions of the world in 2000 and 2010 for viscose overall, and then provide regional estimates for 1995 and annually from 2000 to 2010 for each of the 5 relevant fabric and other final textile product types, separately.

4.3 © 2003

PART A: WORLD TOTALS, 1995-2010

4.1: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Polymer/Fibre Form, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.2: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.3: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.4: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Application Area, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.5: End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product, Volume ('000 tonnes)

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part A)4.1 End-Use Consumption Analysis by Polymer/Fibre Form, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Polymer/Fibre Form 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10Polymer Chip 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - Staple Fibre 272.7 346.4 369.1 391.0 422.8 457.7 494.9 538.0 583.3 631.1 681.4 735.0 4.9% 7.4% 8.2% Spun Staple 31.5 32.4 32.5 32.5 33.3 34.1 34.9 35.7 36.4 37.0 37.7 38.3 0.6% 1.5% 1.9% Textile Multifilament 26.9 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.8 31.6 32.4 33.3 34.3 35.2 36.1 37.1 2.0% 1.8% 2.7% HT Multifilament 88.6 81.4 78.9 76.5 74.8 73.1 71.8 73.3 74.8 76.3 77.8 79.4 (1.7)% (2.5)% 2.0% BCF 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - Monofilament 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - Tape/Slit film 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -

TOTAL 419.8 489.9 510.4 530.0 561.7 596.4 634.0 680.3 728.8 779.7 833.1 889.8 3.1% 5.3% 7.0%

Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part A)4.2 End-Use Consumption Analysis by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)


1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

Unspun Fibre 31.5 31.3 31.2 30.9 31.4 32.0 32.7 33.3 33.8 34.3 34.8 35.3 (0.1)% 0.9% 1.6% Woven Fabric 133.3 129.3 127.3 125.1 124.7 124.4 124.7 127.7 130.7 133.7 136.7 139.8 (0.6)% (0.7)% 2.3% Knitted Fabric 12.5 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.3 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% Nonwoven Fabric 241.2 315.1 338.0 360.1 391.4 425.7 462.2 504.7 549.5 596.8 646.6 699.7 5.5% 8.0% 8.6% Yarn Type Products 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.8% 2.2% 2.1% Other Fabric 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -

TOTAL 419.8 489.9 510.4 530.0 561.7 596.4 634.0 680.3 728.8 779.7 833.1 889.8 3.1% 5.3% 7.0%

Source: DRA

CAGR %Year

VISCOSE WORLD TOTALS

VISCOSE WORLD TOTALS

CAGR %Year

© 2003 4.4

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part A)4.3 End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Region 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10N. America 104.3 108.5 111.3 113.6 120.1 126.8 134.0 140.5 146.5 152.6 158.9 165.4 0.8% 4.3% 4.3% S. America 13.1 18.7 20.2 21.8 24.3 27.1 30.0 33.9 38.1 42.4 47.0 51.8 7.5% 9.9% 11.6% W. Europe 190.7 217.3 222.7 226.7 233.6 241.9 251.4 262.4 273.7 285.2 297.0 309.2 2.6% 3.0% 4.2% E. Europe 9.6 12.2 13.5 15.1 16.8 18.7 20.7 23.6 26.8 30.1 33.7 37.5 4.8% 11.2% 12.7% S.Asia 8.0 12.4 14.0 15.8 17.9 20.3 22.8 26.5 30.5 34.9 39.6 44.8 9.0% 13.0% 14.4% N.E. Asia 71.7 91.6 96.8 102.0 109.9 118.5 127.6 139.3 152.1 165.9 180.6 196.5 5.0% 6.8% 9.0% S.E. Asia 7.7 9.6 10.6 11.6 13.0 14.5 16.2 18.6 21.1 23.9 26.8 30.0 4.6% 10.9% 13.2% Rest of World 14.7 19.5 21.4 23.5 26.0 28.7 31.5 35.6 40.0 44.6 49.5 54.6 5.8% 10.1% 11.6%

TOTAL 419.8 489.9 510.4 530.0 561.7 596.4 634.0 680.3 728.8 779.7 833.1 889.8 3.1% 5.3% 7.0%

Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part A)4.4 End-Use Consumption Analysis by Application Area, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Application Area 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10Agrotech 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - Buildtech 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - Clothtech 35.7 41.9 42.8 43.7 45.4 47.1 48.9 50.8 52.7 54.6 56.6 58.6 3.3% 3.1% 3.7% Geotech 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - Hometech 35.4 54.5 57.9 61.3 66.2 71.7 77.5 84.9 92.7 101.0 109.7 118.9 9.0% 7.3% 8.9% Indutech 82.5 116.5 121.9 126.9 135.1 144.1 153.8 167.2 181.3 196.2 212.0 228.8 7.1% 5.7% 8.3% Medtech 182.1 198.5 211.8 224.6 243.2 263.5 285.2 307.3 330.5 354.9 380.4 407.7 1.7% 7.5% 7.4% Mobiltech 81.1 75.0 72.5 70.0 68.2 66.3 64.8 66.1 67.4 68.6 69.9 71.2 (1.6)% (2.9)% 1.9% Packtech 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - Protech 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 5.4% 2.2% 3.2% Sporttech 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.1% 2.8% 3.5%

TOTAL 419.8 489.9 510.4 530.0 561.7 596.4 634.0 680.3 728.8 779.7 833.1 889.8 3.1% 5.3% 7.0%

Source: DRA

CAGR %

VISCOSE WORLD TOTALS Year CAGR %

VISCOSE WORLD TOTALS Year

© 2003 4.5

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part A)4.5 End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

Clothtech Interlinings, Woven & Knit 13.6 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5 0.5% 0.1% 0.6%

Clothtech Interlinings, Nonwoven 22.1 28.0 29.0 30.0 31.5 33.1 34.8 36.6 38.4 40.2 42.1 44.1 4.9% 4.5% 4.8%

Hometech Woven & Knit Wipes 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 (0.7)% (0.7)% (0.2)%

Hometech Nonwoven Wipes 16.0 33.7 36.9 40.0 44.3 49.0 54.0 60.5 67.4 74.8 82.5 90.8 16.1% 9.9% 11.0%

Hometech Mattress Tickings 13.3 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 20.0 20.8 21.7 22.6 3.4% 3.1% 4.3%

Hometech Platform Cloth 2.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 (10.0)% 3.1% 3.9%

Indutech Conveyor Belt 4.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 (3.6)% 1.2% 2.0%

Indutech Hoses 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 (1.3)% 3.3% 3.9%

Indutech Drive Belting 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 (9.7)% 3.4% 4.9%

Indutech Abrasives 5.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.3 9.7 4.1% 4.5% 4.7%

Indutech Woven & Knit Wipes 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%

Indutech Nonwoven Wipes 33.1 51.4 54.8 58.1 62.9 68.2 73.9 82.1 90.9 100.3 110.3 121.1 9.2% 7.5% 10.4%

Indutech NW Liquid Filters 29.7 43.9 45.4 46.6 48.9 51.6 54.3 58.2 62.3 66.5 70.8 75.4 8.2% 4.3% 6.8%

Indutech Battery Separators, etc 3.8 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.2 8.8 9.6 10.3 11.1 7.1% 7.1% 8.0%

Indutech Fibrefill 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 (11.2)% 2.3% 2.3%

Medtech Nonwoven gowns, drapes 26.5 23.4 24.2 24.8 26.2 27.7 29.3 30.8 32.4 34.0 35.7 37.4 (2.4)% 4.5% 5.1%

Medtech Woundcare Woven, Knit 15.5 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.8 16.9 16.9 17.0 0.5% 0.7% 0.7%

Medtech Woundcare NW 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.1 6.6 7.2 7.9 8.6 9.3 10.0 10.8 11.6 1.0% 7.9% 8.1%

Medtech Sterile Packaging 8.3 7.2 7.5 7.6 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.3 10.7 11.2 (2.6)% 4.3% 4.6%

Medtech Coverstock 42.1 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.6 23.3 24.1 24.8 25.6 (15.7)% 4.1% 3.3%

Medtech Cotton Wool 31.1 31.1 30.9 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.4 33.0 33.5 34.0 34.5 35.0 (0.0)% 0.8% 1.6%

Medtech Wipes 53.5 97.6 109.3 120.8 135.4 151.4 168.4 186.4 205.5 225.6 247.0 269.8 12.8% 11.5% 9.9%

Mobiltech Car tyrecord 47.8 42.8 41.3 39.7 38.4 37.0 36.1 36.7 37.3 38.0 38.6 39.3 (2.2)% (3.4)% 1.7%

Mobiltech CV tyrecord 30.3 28.8 27.9 27.0 26.4 25.7 25.2 25.8 26.5 27.1 27.7 28.4 (1.0)% (2.6)% 2.4%

Mobiltech AutoBelt 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6% (9.2)% (25.8)%

Mobiltech AutoHose 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 1.9% 1.7% 1.2%

Protech FR Clothing 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 5.5% 2.2% 3.2%

Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6% 2.0% 2.7%

Sporttech Bookcloth 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 3.4% 2.8% 3.8%

Sporttech Artificial Leather Substrates 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.9% 2.7% 3.1%

TOTAL 419.8 489.9 510.4 530.0 561.7 596.4 634.0 680.3 728.8 779.7 833.1 889.8 3.1% 5.3% 7.0%

Source: DRA 419.8 489.9 510.4 530.0 561.7 596.4 634.0 680.3 728.8 779.7 833.1 889.8

VISCOSE WORLD TOTALS CAGR %Year

© 2003 4.6

4.7 © 2003

PART B: END-USE CONSUMPTION ANALYSIS BY END-USE PRODUCT AGAINST POLYMER/FIBRE FORM

4.6: All Polymer/Fibre Forms, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)


4.8: Staple Fibre, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.9: Spun Staple, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.10: Textile Multifilament, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.11: HT Multifilament, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part B)4.6 All Polymer/Fibre Forms, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product Polymer Chip Staple Fibre Spun Staple Textile Multifilament HT Multifilament BCF Monofilament Tape/Slit film

Clothtech Interlinings, Woven & Knit 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0

Clothtech Interlinings, Nonwoven 0.0 28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.0

Hometech Woven & Knit Wipes 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7

Hometech Nonwoven Wipes 0.0 33.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.7

Hometech Mattress Tickings 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.7

Hometech Platform Cloth 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4

Indutech Conveyor Belt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9

Indutech Hoses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2

Indutech Drive Belting 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3

Indutech Abrasives 0.0 0.0 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2

Indutech Woven & Knit Wipes 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0

Indutech Nonwoven Wipes 0.0 51.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.4

Indutech NW Liquid Filters 0.0 43.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.9

Indutech Battery Separators, etc 0.0 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4

Indutech Fibrefill 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

Medtech Nonwoven gowns, drapes 0.0 23.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.4

Medtech Woundcare Woven, Knit 0.0 0.0 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.9

Medtech Woundcare NW 0.0 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4

Medtech Sterile Packaging 0.0 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2

Medtech Coverstock 0.0 17.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.9

Medtech Cotton Wool 0.0 31.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.1

Medtech Wipes 0.0 97.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6

Mobiltech Car tyrecord 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.8

Mobiltech CV tyrecord 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.8

Mobiltech AutoBelt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

Mobiltech AutoHose 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1

Protech FR Clothing 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9

Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sporttech Bookcloth 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3

Sporttech Artificial Leather Substrates 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2

TOTAL 0.0 346.4 32.4 29.7 81.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 489.9

Source: DRA

End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Polymer/Fibre Form

TOTAL

Polymer/Fibre Form

© 2003 4.8

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part B)4.7 All Polymer/Fibre Forms, 2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product Polymer Chip Staple Fibre Spun Staple Textile Multifilament HT Multifilament BCF Monofilament Tape/Slit film








Indutech Hoses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1














Medtech Wipes 0.0 269.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 269.8






Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



TOTAL 0.0 735.0 38.3 37.1 79.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 889.8

Source: DRA


Polymer/Fibre FormTOTAL

© 2003 4.9

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part B)4.8 Staple Fibre, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10












Medtech Wipes 53.5 97.6 109.3 120.8 135.4 151.4 168.4 186.4 205.5 225.6 247.0 269.8 12.8% 11.5% 9.9%

Sporttech Artificial Leather Substrates 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.9% 2.7% 3.1% TOTAL 272.7 346.4 369.1 391.0 422.8 457.7 494.9 538.0 583.3 631.1 681.4 735.0 4.9% 7.4% 8.2%

Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part B)4.9 Spun Staple, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10







Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6% 2.0% 2.7%


TOTAL 31.5 32.4 32.5 32.5 33.3 34.1 34.9 35.7 36.4 37.0 37.7 38.3 0.6% 1.5% 1.9%

Source: DRA



Year CAGR %

Year CAGR %

© 2003 4.10

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part B)4.10 Textile Multifilament, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10



TOTAL 26.9 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.8 31.6 32.4 33.3 34.3 35.2 36.1 37.1 2.0% 1.8% 2.7%

Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part B)4.11 HT Multifilament, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10


Indutech Hoses 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 (1.3)% 3.3% 3.9%






TOTAL 88.6 81.4 78.9 76.5 74.8 73.1 71.8 73.3 74.8 76.3 77.8 79.4 (1.7)% (2.5)% 2.0%

Source: DRA



Year CAGR %

Year CAGR %

© 2003 4.11

4.12 © 2003

PART C: END-USE CONSUMPTION ANALYSIS BY END-USE PRODUCT AGAINST REGION

4.12: By Region, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.13: By Region, 2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.14: North America, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.15: South America, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.16: Western Europe, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.17: Eastern Europe, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.18: South Asia, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.19: North East Asia, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.20: South East Asia, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part C)4.12 By Region, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME

('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product North America South America Western Europe Eastern Europe South Asia North East Asia South East Asia Rest of World








Indutech Hoses 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.2 2.2














Medtech Wipes 18.7 3.5 48.2 2.3 2.7 16.2 1.9 4.0 97.6






Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



TOTAL 108.5 18.7 217.3 12.2 12.4 91.6 9.6 19.5 489.9

Source: DRA

Region

TOTAL

End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Region

© 2003 4.13

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part C)4.13 By Region, 2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME

('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product North America South America Western Europe Eastern Europe South Asia North East Asia South East Asia Rest of World








Indutech Hoses 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.3 3.1














Medtech Wipes 36.7 16.6 104.0 12.7 16.5 54.7 10.0 18.7 269.8






Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



TOTAL 165.4 51.8 309.2 37.5 44.8 196.5 30.0 54.6 889.8

Source: DRA


Region

TOTAL

© 2003 4.14

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part C)4.14 North America, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME

('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

Clothtech Interlinings, Woven & Knit 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 (7.0)% (2.3)% (2.1)%

Clothtech Interlinings, Nonwoven 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 (2.8)% 2.1% 2.0%






Indutech Hoses 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 (13.8)% 1.1% 2.0%










Medtech Woundcare NW 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.1 (0.9)% 6.0% 6.0%



Medtech Cotton Wool 13.6 13.4 13.1 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.4 (0.3)% (0.1)% 0.1%

Medtech Wipes 12.7 18.7 19.9 21.0 23.0 25.1 27.4 29.3 31.0 32.8 34.7 36.7 8.0% 8.0% 6.0%

Mobiltech Car tyrecord 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.1% (0.4)% 2.1%

Mobiltech CV tyrecord 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2% 0.3% 2.5%

Mobiltech AutoBelt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -



Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -


Sporttech Artificial Leather Substrates 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 (1.0)% (1.1)% (1.2)%

TOTAL 104.3 108.5 111.3 113.6 120.1 126.8 134.0 140.5 146.5 152.6 158.9 165.4 0.8% 4.3% 4.3%

Source: DRA


CAGR %Year

© 2003 4.15

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part C)4.15 South America, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10



Hometech Woven & Knit Wipes 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1% 0.3% 1.1%





Indutech Hoses 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 4.3% 3.8% 4.2%



Indutech Woven & Knit Wipes 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3% (1.6)% (0.1)%





Medtech Nonwoven gowns, drapes 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 5.7% 9.2% 9.3%



Medtech Sterile Packaging 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 10.7% 11.2% 9.8%


Medtech Cotton Wool 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 9.2% 7.2% 7.5%

Medtech Wipes 1.5 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.8 6.7 7.7 9.3 10.9 12.7 14.6 16.6 18.4% 16.8% 16.6%

Mobiltech Car tyrecord 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 (4.0)% (3.2)% (5.9)%

Mobiltech CV tyrecord 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2% (0.5)% (0.1)%

Mobiltech AutoBelt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.3)% (9.8)% (100.0)%



Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -



TOTAL 13.1 18.7 20.2 21.8 24.3 27.1 30.0 33.9 38.1 42.4 47.0 51.8 7.5% 9.9% 11.6%

Source: DRA


Year CAGR %

© 2003 4.16

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part C)4.16 Western Europe, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

Clothtech Interlinings, Woven & Knit 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 (2.8)% (3.2)% (3.6)%






Indutech Conveyor Belt 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 (5.4)% (0.7)% (0.4)%

Indutech Hoses 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.2% 0.3% 1.0%













Medtech Cotton Wool 12.0 11.0 10.9 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.0 (1.7)% (0.9)% (1.0)%

Medtech Wipes 24.0 48.2 53.5 58.4 64.2 70.8 77.7 82.6 87.7 93.0 98.4 104.0 15.0% 10.0% 6.0%




Mobiltech AutoHose 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.1% (0.2)% (0.1)%

Protech FR Clothing 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.6% (0.1)% 0.4%

Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6% 2.0% 2.7%


Sporttech Artificial Leather Substrates 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 (1.7)% (0.9)% (0.9)%

TOTAL 190.7 217.3 222.7 226.7 233.6 241.9 251.4 262.4 273.7 285.2 297.0 309.2 2.6% 3.0% 4.2%

Source: DRA

Year CAGR %


© 2003 4.17

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part C)4.17 Eastern Europe, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10



Hometech Woven & Knit Wipes 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 (0.9)% 2.4% 2.0%





Indutech Hoses 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.4% 6.1% 5.3%



Indutech Woven & Knit Wipes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1.6)% 0.6% 0.9%






Medtech Woundcare Woven, Knit 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 (0.6)% 2.7% 1.9%





Medtech Wipes 1.1 2.3 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.9 5.6 6.8 8.1 9.5 11.1 12.7 16.2% 19.3% 17.6%






Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -



TOTAL 9.6 12.2 13.5 15.1 16.8 18.7 20.7 23.6 26.7 30.1 33.7 37.5 4.8% 11.2% 12.7%

Source: DRA


Year CAGR %

© 2003 4.18

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part C)4.18 South Asia, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10







Indutech Conveyor Belt 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.1% 5.6% 5.8%

Indutech Hoses 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 7.3% 7.1% 6.6%














Medtech Wipes 1.0 2.7 3.4 4.1 4.9 5.9 6.9 8.5 10.2 12.1 14.2 16.5 21.5% 20.4% 19.1%






Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -



TOTAL 8.0 12.4 14.0 15.8 17.9 20.3 22.8 26.5 30.5 34.9 39.6 44.8 9.0% 13.0% 14.4%

Source: DRA

End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-use Product against Region

Year CAGR %

© 2003 4.19

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part C)4.19 North East Asia, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10








Indutech Hoses 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 5.3% 4.7% 5.3%














Medtech Wipes 10.6 16.2 18.4 20.6 23.5 26.6 29.9 34.1 38.6 43.6 48.9 54.7 8.9% 13.0% 12.8%

Mobiltech Car tyrecord 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.2% 0.6% 0.8%

Mobiltech CV tyrecord 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 4.5% 1.7% 2.2%


Mobiltech AutoHose 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 (0.2)% 2.5% 1.1%


Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -



TOTAL 71.7 91.6 96.8 102.0 109.9 118.5 127.6 139.3 152.1 165.9 180.6 196.5 5.0% 6.8% 9.0%

Source: DRA


Year CAGR %

© 2003 4.20

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part C)4.20 South East Asia, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

Clothtech Interlinings, Woven & Knit 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 (0.7)% 2.1% 2.4%







Indutech Hoses 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.5% 4.9% 5.6%



Indutech Woven & Knit Wipes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.5)% (0.5)% 1.2%











Medtech Wipes 0.9 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.8 4.4 5.3 6.4 7.5 8.7 10.0 17.5% 18.0% 18.0%


Mobiltech CV tyrecord 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.6% 0.8% (0.1)%




Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -



TOTAL 7.7 9.6 10.6 11.6 13.0 14.5 16.2 18.5 21.1 23.9 26.8 30.0 4.6% 10.9% 13.2%

Source: DRA


Year CAGR %

© 2003 4.21

4.22 © 2003

PART D: END-USE CONSUMPTION ANALYSIS BY END-USE PRODUCT AGAINST FABRIC AND OTHER FINAL TEXTILE PRODUCT TYPE

4.21: All Fabrics, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)


4.23: Unspun Fibre, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.24: Woven Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.25: Knitted Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.26: Nonwoven Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.27: Yarn Type Products, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part D)4.21 All Fabrics, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product Unspun Fibre Woven Fabric Knitted Fabric Nonwoven Fabric Yarn Type Products Other Fabric

Clothtech Interlinings, Woven & Knit 0.0 7.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0

Clothtech Interlinings, Nonwoven 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.0 0.0 0.0 28.0

Hometech Woven & Knit Wipes 0.0 2.2 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7

Hometech Nonwoven Wipes 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.7 0.0 0.0 33.7

Hometech Mattress Tickings 0.0 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.7

Hometech Platform Cloth 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4

Indutech Conveyor Belt 0.0 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9

Indutech Hoses 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 2.2

Indutech Drive Belting 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3

Indutech Abrasives 0.0 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2

Indutech Woven & Knit Wipes 0.0 2.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0

Indutech Nonwoven Wipes 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.4 0.0 0.0 51.4

Indutech NW Liquid Filters 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.9 0.0 0.0 43.9

Indutech Battery Separators, etc 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.0 0.0 5.4

Indutech Fibrefill 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

Medtech Nonwoven gowns, drapes 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.4 0.0 0.0 23.4

Medtech Woundcare Woven, Knit 0.0 12.7 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.9

Medtech Woundcare NW 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.0 0.0 5.4

Medtech Sterile Packaging 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.0 0.0 7.2

Medtech Coverstock 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.9 0.0 0.0 17.9

Medtech Cotton Wool 31.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.1

Medtech Wipes 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6 0.0 0.0 97.6

Mobiltech Car tyrecord 0.0 42.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.8

Mobiltech CV tyrecord 0.0 28.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.8

Mobiltech AutoBelt 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

Mobiltech AutoHose 0.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.9 0.0 3.1

Protech FR Clothing 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9

Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sporttech Bookcloth 0.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3

Sporttech Artificial Leather Substrates 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 1.2

TOTAL 31.3 129.3 12.8 315.1 1.4 0.0 489.9

Source: DRA

End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type

TOTAL


© 2003 4.23

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part D)4.22 All Fabrics, 2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product Unspun Fibre Woven Fabric Knitted Fabric Nonwoven Fabric Yarn Type Products Other Fabric

Clothtech Interlinings, Woven & Knit 0.0 7.3 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.5

Clothtech Interlinings, nonwoven 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.1 0.0 0.0 44.1

Hometech Woven & Knit Wipes 0.0 2.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5

Hometech Nonwoven Wipes 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.8 0.0 0.0 90.8

Hometech Mattress Tickings 0.0 22.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.6

Hometech Platform Cloth 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0

Indutech Conveyor Belt 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6

Indutech Hoses 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 3.1

Indutech Drive Belting 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4

Indutech Abrasives 0.0 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7

Indutech Woven & Knit Wipes 0.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1

Indutech Nonwoven Wipes 0.0 0.0 0.0 121.1 0.0 0.0 121.1

Indutech NW Liquid Filters 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.4 0.0 0.0 75.4

Indutech Battery Separators, etc 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1 0.0 0.0 11.1

Indutech Fibrefill 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3

Medtech Nonwoven gowns, drapes 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.4 0.0 0.0 37.4

Medtech Woundcare Woven, Knit 0.0 13.6 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.0

Medtech Woundcare NW 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6 0.0 0.0 11.6

Medtech Sterile Packaging 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2 0.0 0.0 11.2

Medtech Coverstock 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.6 0.0 0.0 25.6

Medtech Cotton Wool 35.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.0

Medtech Wipes 0.0 0.0 0.0 269.8 0.0 0.0 269.8

Mobiltech Car tyrecord 0.0 39.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.3

Mobiltech CV tyrecord 0.0 28.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.4

Mobiltech AutoBelt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Mobiltech AutoHose 0.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 1.1 0.0 3.6

Protech FR Clothing 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2

Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sporttech Bookcloth 0.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8

Sporttech Artificial Leather Substrates 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.6

TOTAL 35.3 139.8 13.3 699.7 1.7 0.0 889.8

Source: DRA


Fabric and Other Final Textile ProductTOTAL

© 2003 4.24

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part D)4.23 Unspun Fibre, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10



TOTAL 31.5 31.3 31.2 30.9 31.4 32.0 32.7 33.3 33.8 34.3 34.8 35.3 (0.1)% 0.9% 1.6%

Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part D)4.24 Woven Fabric, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10






Indutech Hoses 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 (1.3)% 3.3% 3.9%










Protech NBC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6% 2.0% 2.7%


TOTAL 133.3 129.3 127.3 125.1 124.7 124.4 124.7 127.7 130.7 133.7 136.7 139.8 (0.6)% (0.7)% 2.3%

Source: DRA

CAGR %

Year CAGR %



Year

© 2003 4.25

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part D)4.25 Knitted Fabric, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10







TOTAL 12.5 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.3 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%

Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part D)4.26 Nonwoven Fabric, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10










Medtech Wipes 53.5 97.6 109.3 120.8 135.4 151.4 168.4 186.4 205.5 225.6 247.0 269.8 12.8% 11.5% 9.9%


TOTAL 241.2 315.1 338.0 360.1 391.4 425.7 462.2 504.7 549.5 596.8 646.6 699.7 5.5% 8.0% 8.6%

Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part D)4.27 Yarn Type Products, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

End-Use Product 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

Indutech Hoses 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 (1.3)% 3.3% 3.9%


TOTAL 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.8% 2.2% 2.1%

Source: DRA


Year CAGR %

Year CAGR %

Year CAGR %



© 2003 4.26

4.27 © 2003

PART E: END-USE CONSUMPTION ANALYSIS BY FABRIC AND OTHER FINAL TEXTILE PRODUCT TYPE AGAINST POLYMER/FIBRE FORM







TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part E)4.28 All Polymer/Fibre Forms, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)


Polymer Chip Staple Fibre Spun Staple Textile Multifilament HT Multifilament BCF Monofilament Tape/slit film

Unspun Fibre 0.0 31.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.3

Woven Fabric 0.0 0.0 27.0 22.7 79.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 129.3

Knitted Fabric 0.0 0.0 5.4 7.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8

Nonwoven Fabric 0.0 315.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 315.1

Yarn Type Product 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4

Other Fabric 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0

TOTAL 0.0 346.4 32.4 29.7 81.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 489.9

Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part E)4.29 All Polymer/Fibre Forms, 2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)


Polymer Chip Staple Fibre Spun Staple Textile Multifilament HT Multifilament BCF Monofilament Tape/slit film

Unspun Fibre 0.0 35.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.3

Woven Fabric 0.0 0.0 32.6 29.9 77.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 139.8

Knitted Fabric 0.0 0.0 5.7 7.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3

Nonwoven Fabric 0.0 699.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 699.7

Yarn Type Product 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7

Other Fabric 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0

TOTAL 0.0 735.0 38.3 37.1 79.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 889.8

Source: DRA

End-Use Consumption Analysis by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product against Polymer/Fibre Form


TOTAL

Polymer/Fibre Form

Polymer/Fibre Form

TOTAL

© 2003 4.28

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part E)4.30 Staple Fibre, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)


1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

Unspun Fibre 31.5 31.3 31.2 30.9 31.4 32.0 32.7 33.3 33.8 34.3 34.8 35.3 (0.1)% 0.9% 1.6%

Woven Fabric 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -

Knitted Fabric 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -

Nonwoven Fabric 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -

Yarn Type Product 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -

Other Fabric 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -

TOTAL 31.5 31.3 31.2 30.9 31.4 32.0 32.7 33.3 33.8 34.3 34.8 35.3 (0.1)% 0.9% 1.6%

Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part E)4.31 Spun Staple, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)


1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

Unspun Fibre 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -

Woven Fabric 26.2 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.8 28.6 29.4 30.1 30.7 31.4 32.0 32.6 0.6% 1.7% 2.1%

Knitted Fabric 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 0.3% 0.3% 0.6%

Nonwoven Fabric 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -


Other Fabric 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -

TOTAL 31.5 32.4 32.5 32.5 33.3 34.1 34.9 35.7 36.4 37.0 37.7 38.3 0.6% 1.5% 1.9%

Source: DRA

CAGR %


Year CAGR %


Year

© 2003 4.29

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part E)4.32 Textile Multifilament, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)


1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

Unspun Fibre 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -

Woven Fabric 20.1 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.8 24.6 25.4 26.2 27.1 28.0 28.9 29.9 2.5% 2.3% 3.3%

Knitted Fabric 6.8 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 0.5% 0.1% 0.6%

Nonwoven Fabric 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -


Other Fabric 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -

TOTAL 26.9 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.8 31.6 32.4 33.3 34.3 35.2 36.1 37.1 2.0% 1.8% 2.7%

Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part E)4.33 HT Multifilament, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)


1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

Unspun Fibre 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -

Woven Fabric 87.0 79.7 77.2 74.8 73.0 71.3 70.0 71.4 72.9 74.3 75.8 77.3 (1.7)% (2.6)% 2.0%

Knitted Fabric 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.9% 1.7% 1.2%

Nonwoven Fabric 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -

Yarn Type Product 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.8% 2.2% 2.1%

Other Fabric 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -

TOTAL 88.6 81.4 78.9 76.5 74.8 73.1 71.8 73.3 74.8 76.3 77.8 79.4 (1.7)% (2.5)% 2.0%

Source: DRA


Year CAGR %


Year CAGR %

© 2003 4.30

4.31 © 2003

PART F: END-USE CONSUMPTION ANALYSIS BY REGION AGAINST POLYMER/FIBRE FORM







TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part F)4.34 All Polymer/Fibre Forms, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Region Polymer Chip Staple Fibre Spun Staple Textile Multifilament HT Multifilament BCF Monofilament Tape/slit film

North America 0.0 88.3 9.3 6.5 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 108.5

South America 0.0 12.8 1.8 2.5 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.7

Western Europe 0.0 136.5 8.3 6.9 65.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 217.3

Eastern Europe 0.0 8.2 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2

South Asia 0.0 9.0 1.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4

North East Asia 0.0 70.8 7.1 7.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.6

South East Asia 0.0 6.8 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6

Rest of World 0.0 14.0 2.1 2.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.5

TOTAL 0.0 346.4 32.4 29.7 81.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 489.9

Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part F)4.35 All Polymer/Fibre Forms, 2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Region Polymer Chip Staple Fibre Spun Staple Textile Multifilament HT Multifilament BCF Monofilament Tape/slit film

North America 0.0 142.9 10.0 7.6 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 165.4

South America 0.0 44.3 2.3 3.7 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.8

Western Europe 0.0 232.1 8.7 7.1 61.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 309.2

Eastern Europe 0.0 32.3 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.5

South Asia 0.0 39.4 2.2 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.8

North East Asia 0.0 170.2 9.3 8.9 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 196.5

South East Asia 0.0 26.1 1.5 1.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.0

Rest of World 0.0 47.7 2.6 3.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.6

TOTAL 0.0 735.0 38.3 37.1 79.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 889.8

Source: DRA

End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region against Polymer/Fibre Form

End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region aginst Polymer/Fibre Form



© 2003 4.32

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part F)4.36 Staple Fibre, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Region 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

North America 83.2 88.3 91.2 93.7 99.9 106.2 113.0 119.1 124.8 130.7 136.7 142.9 1.2% 5.0% 4.8%

South America 8.0 12.8 14.3 15.9 18.2 20.7 23.4 27.1 31.1 35.3 39.7 44.3 9.7% 12.8% 13.6%

Western Europe 102.5 136.5 144.2 150.8 159.8 170.1 180.9 190.5 200.5 210.8 221.2 232.1 5.9% 5.8% 5.1%

Eastern Europe 6.0 8.2 9.5 10.9 12.6 14.3 16.1 18.9 22.0 25.2 28.6 32.3 6.6% 14.5% 14.9%

South Asia 5.4 9.0 10.5 12.2 14.1 16.3 18.6 22.1 25.9 30.0 34.5 39.4 10.6% 15.7% 16.2%

North East Asia 52.8 70.8 75.8 80.8 88.0 96.0 104.5 115.6 127.8 140.9 154.9 170.2 6.0% 8.1% 10.2%

South East Asia 5.0 6.8 7.7 8.7 10.0 11.3 12.9 15.1 17.6 20.2 23.0 26.1 6.5% 13.7% 15.1%

Rest of World 9.8 14.0 15.8 17.9 20.2 22.8 25.4 29.4 33.6 38.1 42.8 47.7 7.5% 12.7% 13.4% TOTAL 272.7 346.4 369.1 391.0 422.8 457.7 494.9 538.0 583.3 631.1 681.4 735.0 4.9% 7.4% 8.2%

Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part F)4.37 Spun Staple, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Region 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

North America 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.0 (0.3)% 0.6% 0.9%

South America 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.8% 1.6% 2.5%

Western Europe 8.6 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 (0.7)% 0.3% 0.5%

Eastern Europe 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 (0.1)% 3.8% 3.5%

South Asia 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 4.5% 4.7% 4.7%

North East Asia 6.4 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.1 9.3 2.1% 2.6% 3.0%

South East Asia 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.2% 2.7% 3.9%


Source: DRA



Year CAGR %

Year CAGR %

© 2003 4.33

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part F)4.38 Textile Multifilament, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Region 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

North America 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.6 (0.0)% 1.2% 1.9%

South America 1.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 8.9% 3.9% 4.4%

Western Europe 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 0.2% 0.0% 0.5%

Eastern Europe 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 3.8% 3.3% 4.4%

South Asia 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 6.9% 4.2% 5.4%

North East Asia 6.3 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.7 8.9 2.1% 1.8% 3.0%

South East Asia 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.1% 3.4% 4.7%


Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part F)4.39 HT Multifilament, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Fibre Form 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

North America 5.0 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 (2.8)% 0.4% 1.6%

South America 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 (1.5)% (0.2)% (0.3)%

Western Europe 72.8 65.6 63.2 60.8 58.7 56.6 55.2 56.4 57.6 58.8 60.0 61.3 (2.0)% (3.4)% 2.1%

Eastern Europe 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.9% 0.7% 0.0%

South Asia 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.9% 4.6% 4.4%

North East Asia 6.1 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.1 1.8% 1.7% 2.0%

South East Asia 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2% 2.0% 1.4%

Rest of World 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0% 1.7% 1.2% TOTAL 88.6 81.4 78.9 76.5 74.8 73.1 71.8 73.3 74.8 76.3 77.8 79.4 (1.7)% (2.5)% 2.0%

Source: DRA



Year CAGR %

Year CAGR %

© 2003 4.34

4.35 © 2003

PART G: END-USE CONSUMPTION ANALYSIS BY REGION AGAINST FABRIC AND OTHER FINAL TEXTILE PRODUCT TYPE



4.42: Unspun Fibre, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.43: Woven Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.44: Knitted Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.45: Nonwoven Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.46: Yarn Type Products, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part G)4.40 All Fabrics, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Region Unspun Fibre Woven Fabric Knitted Fabric Nonwoven Fabric Yarn Type Products Other Fabric

North America 13.5 17.5 2.4 74.9 0.3 0.0 108.5

South America 0.7 4.6 1.2 12.1 0.1 0.0 18.7

Western Europe 11.1 77.8 2.6 125.4 0.4 0.0 217.3

Eastern Europe 0.5 3.2 0.7 7.7 0.1 0.0 12.2

South Asia 0.6 2.6 0.7 8.4 0.0 0.0 12.4

North East Asia 3.7 17.2 3.3 67.0 0.3 0.0 91.6

South East Asia 0.4 2.2 0.6 6.4 0.0 0.0 9.6

Rest of World 0.8 4.2 1.2 13.2 0.1 0.0 19.5

TOTAL 31.3 129.3 12.8 315.1 1.4 0.0 489.9

Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part G)4.41 All Fabrics, 2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Region Unspun Fibre Woven Fabric Knitted Fabric Nonwoven Fabric Yarn Type Products Other Fabric

North America 13.5 19.9 2.2 129.5 0.3 0.0 165.4

South America 1.5 5.8 1.6 42.8 0.1 0.0 51.8

Western Europe 10.1 74.5 2.2 222.0 0.4 0.0 309.2

Eastern Europe 1.1 4.3 0.8 31.2 0.1 0.0 37.5

South Asia 1.5 4.3 0.9 38.0 0.1 0.0 44.8

North East Asia 5.1 22.3 3.6 165.1 0.4 0.0 196.5

South East Asia 0.9 3.2 0.7 25.2 0.1 0.0 30.0

Rest of World 1.7 5.5 1.3 46.1 0.1 0.0 54.6

TOTAL 35.3 139.8 13.3 699.7 1.7 0.0 889.8

Source: DRA

End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region against Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type




© 2003 4.36

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part G)4.42 Unspun Fibre, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Region 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

North America 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.5 (0.4)% (0.1)% 0.1%

South America 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 8.7% 7.1% 7.4%

Western Europe 12.1 11.1 11.0 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.2 10.1 (1.8)% (0.9)% (0.9)%

Eastern Europe 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 6.6% 9.4% 8.4%

South Asia 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 11.6% 10.4% 9.8%

North East Asia 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 0.6% 2.2% 4.0%

South East Asia 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 8.1% 8.2% 8.7%

Rest of World 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 8.1% 7.3% 7.1% TOTAL 31.5 31.3 31.2 30.9 31.4 32.0 32.7 33.3 33.8 34.3 34.8 35.3 (0.1)% 0.9% 1.6%

Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part G)4.43 Woven Fabric, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Region 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

North America 17.8 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 (0.4)% 1.0% 1.7%

South America 4.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 2.4% 2.0% 2.7%

Western Europe 85.0 77.8 75.4 73.0 70.9 69.0 67.7 69.1 70.4 71.8 73.1 74.5 (1.8)% (2.7)% 1.9%

Eastern Europe 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3 1.3% 2.8% 3.0%

South Asia 2.0 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 5.3% 5.0% 5.6%

North East Asia 15.4 17.2 17.3 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.3 2.2% 2.3% 3.0%

South East Asia 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 1.2% 3.1% 4.1%

Rest of World 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 2.0% 2.3% 2.9% TOTAL 133.3 129.3 127.3 125.1 124.7 124.4 124.7 127.7 130.7 133.7 136.7 139.8 (0.6)% (0.7)% 2.3%

Source: DRA

Year CAGR %

Year CAGR %



© 2003 4.37

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part G)4.44 Knitted Fabric, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Region 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

North America 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 (2.9)% (1.0)% (0.8)%

South America 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 7.4% 2.8% 2.8%

Western Europe 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 (1.5)% (1.8)% (1.7)%

Eastern Europe 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.4% 1.6% 2.0%

South Asia 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 5.3% 2.4% 2.5%

North East Asia 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 0.9% 0.6% 0.9%

South East Asia 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 (0.3)% 1.9% 2.4%


Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part G)4.45 Nonwoven Fabric, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Fibre Form 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

North America 69.5 74.9 78.0 80.8 86.8 93.0 99.6 105.6 111.3 117.1 123.2 129.5 1.5% 5.9% 5.4%

South America 7.6 12.1 13.6 15.1 17.3 19.8 22.3 26.0 29.9 34.0 38.3 42.8 9.8% 13.1% 13.9%

Western Europe 90.4 125.4 133.3 140.1 149.1 159.4 170.3 180.0 190.1 200.4 211.0 222.0 6.8% 6.3% 5.4%

Eastern Europe 5.6 7.7 9.0 10.4 11.9 13.6 15.4 18.1 21.1 24.2 27.6 31.2 6.6% 14.8% 15.2%

South Asia 5.1 8.4 9.9 11.5 13.4 15.5 17.7 21.1 24.8 28.8 33.2 38.0 10.5% 16.0% 16.5%

North East Asia 49.2 67.0 72.0 77.1 84.2 92.0 100.4 111.3 123.3 136.2 150.1 165.1 6.4% 8.4% 10.5%

South East Asia 4.7 6.4 7.3 8.2 9.5 10.8 12.3 14.5 16.9 19.5 22.2 25.2 6.4% 14.0% 15.4%


Source: DRA

TABLE VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES (Part G)4.46 Yarn Type Products, 1995-2010 - Volume ('000 tonnes)

VOLUME('000 tonnes)

Fibre Form 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10

North America 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 (4.2)% 1.2% 1.4%

South America 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.9% 4.1% 3.8%

Western Europe 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.9% (0.1)% 0.1%

Eastern Europe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.9% 6.0% 4.5%

South Asia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.4% 7.3% 5.3%

North East Asia 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.6% 3.3% 2.8%

South East Asia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.0% 6.4% 4.5%


Source: DRA


Year CAGR %

Year CAGR %



Year CAGR %

© 2003 4.38

A1.1 © 2003

Appendix 1: Definitions and Assumptions

This Appendix sets out the main assumptions and definitions underlying the volume and value projections in this report and a description of the main table formats used to present the forecasts.

Technical Textiles

Technical textiles and nonwovens (referred to in this report collectively as technical textiles) are defined by DRA as comprising all those textile-based products (either finished products in their own right, such as ropes or tarpaulins, or components of other products, such as tyre cord for tyres or coverstock for diapers), which are used principally for their performance or functional characteristics, rather than for their aesthetics, or are used for non-consumer (i.e. industrial) applications. So nonwoven carpet backing (functional) is included as technical, but needlepunched carpets (largely aesthetic) are not, except for those used in automotive (i.e. high technical specification) applications. Similarly, shoe components (hidden, functional) are included as technical, whilst shoe uppers (visible, largely aesthetic) are treated as non-technical.

A full list of around 150 individual products which are defined as technical and are separately quantified by the technical textiles partition of the DRA Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System (see Appendix 2) is given in Exhibit A2.1 of that Appendix. For the purpose of this report, these products are grouped into the 12 end-use Application Areas of the world technical textiles and nonwovens market as defined by Messe Frankfurt for their Techtextil shows (see Exhibit A1.1 below); for other purposes they could be aggregated in alternative ways..

Application Area

Products and End-Uses Covered by the Application Areas

Agrotech Textiles for agriculture, horticulture, forestry and fishing

Buildtech Building and construction textiles

Clothtech Technical textile components of shoes and clothing

Geotech Geotextiles

Hometech Technical components of furniture, household textiles and floorcoverings

Indutech Textiles used in filter media and other industrial applications

Medtech Hygiene and medical textiles

Mobiltech Textiles used in automotive, marine, railway and aerospace applications

Packtech Packaging textiles

Protech Textiles for personal and property protection

Sporttech Technical textiles used for sport and leisure equipment

Oekotech Products included in the list above that are used for environmental protection applications

Source: DRA

Product Coverage

The detailed analysis of this report considers all products containing viscose which are classified by the above definition as being “technical” and which therefore

Exhibit A1.1

Techtextil Application Areas

A1.2 © 2003

appear in the full list of products described above. A list of these viscose products is given in Chapter 1.

Market Estimates refer to End-Use Consumption, not Mill Consumption

Technical textiles consumption is defined in this study as taking place where the textiles are either consumed as products in their own right, or are first used by another industry outside the textile sector, rather than where the textile is produced or the eventual destination of any product incorporating those textiles.

Thus, the use of German-made headlining fabric within Japanese-built cars which are subsequently exported to North America is attributed to the Asian region; likewise, clothing components such as interlinings and threads which are incorporated into garments in, say, Vietnam, are defined as being consumed in Asia, even if the finished garments are then exported to, say, Europe. A geotextile, on the other hand, is not considered to undergo any significant industrial transformation before its eventual use in a civil engineering project. Consumption therefore takes place at the point of final use.

On this definition, the market estimates in this report relate to textile products’ end-use consumption and their associated raw material content; they are not the volumes and values of mill consumption of fibre by the technical textile industries of the countries/regions concerned. The difference, of course, lies in trade in technical textile trade between regions. On the whole, inter-regional trade in technical textiles, fibres and yarns is still relatively limited although it is not always likely to remain so.

Scenario used

The forecasts in this report are based on a scenario which assumes the continuation of recent social, demographic, technology, industry and market trends within a slowly expanding world economic environment.

The following specific assumptions were made:

• World economic growth will make a medium term recovery to trend, post September 11 (forecast made Quarter 1, 2002)

• Fibre consumption per head will continue to rise less rapidly than income per head on a region by region basis

• Past trends in fabric and fibre shares will continue, reflecting existing patterns of change in inter-fibre and inter-fabric competitiveness on a regional basis, but no change in relative fibre prices over time, for example in response to fibre shortages

• No major technological breakthrough that will significantly affect demand for textile products directly or indirectly during the forecast period

• Increasing environmental pressures globally, especially in the area of recycling in general and the automotive industry in particular

• Increasing life expectancy world-wide, increased expenditure on health, increased leisure time and outdoor and sporting pursuits

A1.3 © 2003

Appendix 2 gives more details on how these assumptions are integrated into the DRA Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System which can produce forecasts for a wide range of different scenario assumptions as required.

Reporting Levels

The Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System on which the projections in this report are based allows the forecasts and analysis of the technical textile market to be performed at several levels of the production chain: by fibre or polymer type, by fibre or polymer form, and by fabric and other final textile product type, because in the data the make-up of each end product is analysed by these factors. A full list of the variables contained within the consumption forecasting system is given in Exhibit 2.2 in Appendix 2.

Exhibit A1.2, below, illustrates in simple terms how the various products at the various stages of the technical textile production chain described above inter-relate.

Source: DRA

Textile raw materials in the form of polymers or fibres fall into 4 broad groups: natural, regenerated, synthetic and inorganic. This is the level of detail used for the analysis performed in Chapter 2 of this report (see Exhibit A1.3).

Fibre or polymer raw materials are used in technical textile products in one of eight fibre/polymer forms. This is the level of detail used to analyse viscose products in this report, although viscose is found in only four of these (staple fibre, spun staple, textile (regular tenacity) multifilament and industrial (high tenacity) multifilament) and not in polymer, BCF, monofilament, or tape/slit film form.

Textile products then leave the technical textile industry as one of six fabric and other final textile product types. This is the level of detail used to analyse viscose

Natural Regenerated Synthetic Inorganic

Staple fibre

Spun staple yarns

Monofilament Multifilament yarns

Polymer chip

Woven fabrics

Yarn type products

Unspun fibre

Knitted fabrics

Nonwoven fabrics

Other fabric types

Poly

mer

/ Fi

bre

type

Fa

bric

s &

oth

er

Fina

l Tex

tile

Pro

duct

s Po

lym

er/F

ibre

for

m

Yarns, tapes, slit-film

Exhibit A1.2

The Inter-relationship between Products in the Technical Textiles Production Chain

A1.4 © 2003

products in this report, although viscose is not found in “other fabric” form (see Exhibit A1.3).

Polymer/Fibre Types used to Analyse

Technical Textiles in Total

Polymer/Fibre Forms used to Analyse Viscose Products

Fabric and other Final Textile Product Types

used to Analyse Viscose Products

Natural

Regenerated

Synthetic

Inorganic

(Polymer chip)

Staple fibre

Spun staple

Textile (regular tenacity) multifilament

Industrial (high tenacity) multifilament

(BCF multifilament)

(Monofilament)

(Tape and slit film)

Unspun fibre

Yarn type products

Woven fabrics

Knitted fabrics

Nonwoven fabrics

(Other fabrics)

Total: 4 Total: 4 (+4) Total: 5 (+1)

Source: DRA

Treatment of Composites

Unless otherwise specified, the term “composites” in this study refers to products which comprise reinforcing fibres or textiles, embedded within a matrix of thermosetting or thermoplastic polymer, mostly for structural end-uses. The loose fibres, yarns, or woven, knitted or nonwoven fabrics that represent the reinforcement of such composites are included in their respective categories in the “final textile product type” analysis.

Table Structures

Tables in this report show end-use consumption projections in volume (‘000 tonnes) terms. Tables take the form either of time series, showing 1995 and each year from 2000 to 2010, or of cross-tables, analysing viscose markets by more than one variable (for example by polymer/fibre form against region), for single years (2000 and 2010). In all time-based tables, the final three columns provide percentage compound annual growth rates (% CAGR) for the five year periods 1995-2000, 2000-2005, and 2005-2010.

In all tables, numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. Zeros imply quantities less than half the final digit shown. A dash (-) denotes not applicable.

Volume Definitions

Volume estimates are based solely on the weight of the textile fibre content of the finished products. Textile fibres are defined as encompassing all natural, man-made and inorganic fibres and yarns including polymer chip made directly into nonwovens; staple fibres; multifilament yarns; monofilament yarns, and slit film and tapes (other than extruded strapping tapes). Wood pulp is included only in those few applications (e.g. wipes) where it is used as an air-laid nonwoven and as such competes with more “traditional” fibres. All “textile” glass is included, down to the shortest milled fibres and chopped strands (mostly used in composites), but glass wool (mostly used for insulation) is excluded.

Exhibit A1.3

Reporting Levels used in this Report

A1.5 © 2003

In the case of natural fibres (other than cotton and wool), the report considers all mainstream uses of the principal textile fibres, including jute sacks, but does not attempt to account for every tonne of the highly variable and largely unquantifiable volume of “surplus” bast fibre resulting from bountiful harvests.

In the case of all other fibres, total technical textile volume estimates have been subjected to a reality check by subtracting DRA’s own estimates for fibre consumption in non-technical end-uses such as clothing and household textiles (as derived from the overall Textile Products End-uses Consumption Forecasting System) from estimates of overall apparent fibre availability according to reputable industry sources such as CIRFS, the Fiber Economics Bureau (US) and the Japanese Chemical Fibres Association. Only in the area of polyolefin fibre, which is produced largely in small scale operations which are more difficult to quantify, are there significant doubts about the level of overall fibre availability (particularly for China).

Free availability is assumed for all fibres across the forecast period.

Value Definitions

Market value forecasts, at the polymer/fibre, fabric and finished product level, are derived by multiplying the appropriate volume forecast for the region, product and year in question by an average world market price as at Quarter 1, 2002. In the case of polymers/fibres, these prices are calculated as weighted averages of the prices applying to each of the different polymer or fibre forms (or yarn types) in which each polymer or fibre is sold by the chemical or fibre industry (i.e. excluding spun staple yarn).

In the case of finished product values, either “actual” market prices have been used, or unit prices have been estimated by compounding together the raw material prices and all the value added by the various yarn forming, fabric forming, finishing and coating processes performed within the technical textiles industry. Conversion costs incurred further down-stream, such as making-up and packaging, have in general been excluded from the value calculations. Where market prices have been used, these have been taken to represent a weighted average of all products regardless of composition. The use of this approach for some products means that it has not been possible to produce an accurate analysis across all finished products in value terms by different fibre type.

.

A2.1 © 2003

Appendix 2: The DRA Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System

Introduction

This Appendix sets out the components and workings of the unique system for describing and forecasting world end-use markets for textile products which has been developed by David Rigby Associates (DRA). The technical textiles partition of this system forms the basis of the projected global volumes, values and trends presented in the DRA report “Technical Textiles and Industrial Nonwovens: World Market Forecasts to 2010” and the subsequent more detailed reports on specific aspects of the technical textiles market.

The Forecasting System

The DRA Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System describes and forecasts world end-use markets for individual textile products. It also calculates the associated volumes and values of their polymer, fibre, yarn and fabric components, and other input requirements such as machine time and chemicals. Briefly the system comprises:

• A set of “Essays” describing the important factors determining the current state of the market and the way it will evolve.

• A unique product/market segmentation method, the DRA “Fabric Story Approach”, which analyses textile and clothing markets into a number of (fabric) x (end-use product) combinations.

• A database containing quantitative information on each separate product defined by the segmentation scheme, by country, with each product’s make up analysed in terms of fibre/polymer type, yarn type and fabric type.

• A database of forecasts for market drivers (e.g. GDP/head, agricultural production) by country.

• The “All Fibre, All End-Uses Model” (the Model) which uses the numbers in the databases to produce tables describing the current market and to produce forecasts for a range of future scenarios defined by combining “what if” assumptions on factors such as: new technologies, end-uses and products; market drivers; relative fibre prices and any other factors influencing total volumes and inter-fibre and inter-fabric competition.

The system brings together DRA’s detailed knowledge of textile markets, products, technologies, supply chains, inter-fibre competition, etc, gained from 25 years of consulting work in the world textile industry and its markets. Knowledge gaps have been filled by targeted research and any reliable published data on world markets have been incorporated.

The Technical Textiles Partition of the Consumption Forecasting System

Despite its increasing importance, the world technical textiles market has historically been very poorly documented. Basic problems exist even in defining the overall scope of the sector, in terms of which end-uses to include (e.g. sacking, soft luggage), which

A2.2 © 2003

fibres (e.g. glass, jute), and which product types (e.g. composites, wet-laid nonwovens). Problems also exist in terms of defining end products such as geotextiles and agricultural textiles clearly and consistently, especially between different countries. Finally, the multiplicity of products and end-uses has resulted in most of the few, regional analyses of the technical textiles market being based on estimates of production of broad product groups such as “coated fabrics” or “netting” with little detail on specific end-uses.

Forecasts on this basis are normally no more than short-term extrapolations of production trends, rather than demand based assessments of future consumption levels. Furthermore, those end-use sector studies that do exist cannot easily be added together to provide an overview of the market as a whole due to only partial coverage, overlapping or unclear definitions, inconsistent demand assumptions, etc.

The technical textiles partition of the DRA End-Use Textile Products Consumption Forecasting System aims to provide an analysis of the end-use consumption of technical textiles and industrial nonwovens which is internally consistent and comprehensive in terms of both geography and product coverage. This analysis is performed at two levels.

First, the system provides a comprehensive and detailed description of current technical textile markets, by country, in terms of volumes and values for around 150 individual end-use products, each analysed according to a wide variety of parameters as detailed below (e.g. types of fibres, yarns, fabrics, etc).

Second, it enables annual forecasts for future technical textile product market sizes to be made, together with the volume implications for each of the products’ components, inputs, etc. These forecasts can be made using any preferred set of assumptions relating both to the relevant market driver (e.g. economic growth, agricultural production, etc) and to relative fibre prices, future technology developments, etc, and their impact on volumes, fibre and fabric shares, etc.

Detailed Methodology

The methodology adopted for describing and forecasting technical textile markets within the workings of the DRA forecasting system is as follows.

i) Identify individual products, or small groupings of similar products, which together describe the technical textiles sector. The number and definitions of these products were chosen to give as wide and representative a coverage of technical textile end-uses as possible for a reasonably manageable number of categories. The product groupings were also chosen to be as compatible as possible with market estimates available from a wide range of established sources, although such statistics proved to be very limited in number as well as in reliability and clarity of definition.

In total, around 150 individual products or groups of products were identified.

To facilitate an analysis of the technical textiles market in line with the now widely recognised market split developed by Messe Frankfurt, the organisers of the Techtextil shows, these 150 products were grouped into 12 broad application areas – e.g. Agrotech, Medtech, Oekotech). Other groupings are possible, as required.

Exhibit A2.1 provides a full list of individual products and their allocation by application area.

ii) Draw up a full list of parameters to be used to describe each product across each of 210 individual country markets, i.e:

• Polymer/fibre types (19 – e.g. polyester)

A2.3 © 2003

• Polymer/fibre (or yarn) forms (8 – e.g. high tenacity multi-filament yarn)

• Fabrics and other final textile product types (19 – e.g. weft knits)

• Coating types (5 – e.g. PVC coated)

A full list of these parameters is given in Exhibit A2.2.

iii) For each product, collect and validate all available production, trade and consumption data back to 1995 (or earlier where possible), from secondary sources such as man-made fibre agencies (e.g. JCFA), trade associations (e.g. EDANA) and statistical bodies (e.g. Eurostat). These data encompassed not only overall volumes and values, but also, where available, product detail such as fibres and yarn types used, precise fabric type (e.g. narrow woven, warp knit, wet-laid nonwoven) and coatings used. Considerable time and resources have been spent identifying and acquiring all relevant sources of statistics and other market information to complement DRA’s already extensive database and industry/market knowledge. Numerous interviews with producers and end-users were also undertaken to improve understanding of products and trends and to clarify areas of uncertainty.

iv) Identify appropriate economic, demographic and industry ‘drivers’ or indicators of overall end-use consumption for each product, for example:

• Agricultural production (for land-based Agrotech products)

• Fishing catch (fishing nets, lines, ropes)

• Carpet production (carpet backing, ground yarns)

• Apparel production (interlinings, sewing thread)

• Shoe production (shoe components)

• Automotive production (trim, seat belts, air bags, etc)

• Tyre production (tyre cord)

• Cigarette production (cigarette filters).

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), particularly in Purchase Power Parity (PPP) terms, either in total or on a per capita basis, is an important general driver of demand where more specific data is not available, especially for consumer-type products such as those found in the Sporttech and Medtech areas.

v) Establish from published sources historical driver data for each region with as many individual countries as possible identified separately.

vi) Derive best fit relationships between apparent end-use consumption and these drivers using all available national and regional data. In some cases, the calculated ratios between driver and consumption are virtually constant over time and between countries – e.g. the amount of filter tow per cigarette, quantity of sewing thread per garment, etc. In others the ratios show distinct variations both over time and between different regions – e.g. the amount of tyre cord per tyre, number of airbags per car. In those cases where consumption is GDP-related, for example medical goods, textile packaging, protective clothing, etc, demand often describes a so-called “logistics” curve, whereby consumption initially rises slowly at low levels of GDP/head, accelerating as real incomes grow, before flattening off at higher levels of per capita GDP or income.

vii) Apply the established driver/consumption ratios for known countries to the base year (2000) and to all past years for all other countries/regions for which textile end-use data is not available in order to calculate total apparent consumption by product, correcting for different levels of technology and

A2.4 © 2003

market penetration in each case. Such corrections often have to be based on experience and intuition. Factors taken into account include similarities in regional and development status, as well as any other special factors which can be identified based on local social/industrial practices. Subject to such special considerations, the assumption is generally made that all comparable geographical groupings will eventually achieve similar consumption/driver ratios but over different timescales, depending on the rate of market development.

viii) Use DRA’s knowledge of process technologies and inter-fibre competition by product, to determine estimated global technical textiles consumption by polymer/fibre type, polymer/fibre form and final fabric type in 2000.

ix) Compare estimates for fibre usage with published estimates of global fibre availability for 2000, allowing for DRA estimates on fibre usage in non-technical applications (apparel, household, carpets, etc). Adjust either total market estimates and/or fibre splits, and iterate where necessary.

x) Develop a set of consistent forecasts for each of the selected drivers to 2010, using third party sources wherever necessary. In the case of drivers for products such as components for footwear, clothing and furniture, it was necessary first to make forecasts for global final demand for the finished products (as opposed to demand for the textile components). These forecasts were based on equations where consumption per head, again, grew more slowly than real per capita incomes (in line with historical experience).

xi) Re-apply the established driver/consumption ratios to future years by country or region to calculate forecasts for total apparent consumption by product, again making suitable corrections for expected differences in technology and market penetration.

xii) Extrapolate past trends in fabric, yarn and fibre shares by product by region to forecast consumption volumes by fibre, yarn and fabric type (assuming no change in relative fibre prices)

xiii) Re-combine all individual product estimates to calculate total consumption by country and target year.

xiv) Compare consumption totals with available data on production and demand at national and regional levels and use to adjust earlier assumptions and estimates iteratively for improved fit.

xv) Establish unit values by fibre and final product as at Quarter 2, 2002, and apply to volumes as appropriate to calculate consumption in value terms.

Further Enhancements to the DRA Forecasting System

DRA is developing and refining further both the databases and the All Fibre All End-Uses Model to produce more accurate and more detailed forecasts for technical textiles, over future years, adding, for example, variables such as yarn titre, texturising, twist level, lamination, etc. DRA would be pleased to receive any other suggestions on how the usefulness of the current Model might best be enhanced further.

DRA is also enhancing the quality of its database for non-technical products to enable global analyses of non-technical textile markets (apparel, household textiles, home furnishings, and carpets) to be produced by end-use products and components in the near future.

A2.5 © 2003

Application Areas

Products Included

Agrotech Woven and nonwoven crop covers, land netting, capillary matting Fishing ropes, fishing line, fishing nets Baler twine Buildtech Tarpaulins, hoardings, scaffolding nets Textile structures, awnings Roof scrims, Housewrap, shingles, roofing felts, sewer linings, woven roofing fabrics Concrete reinforcement, composites Clothtech Shoe laces, shoe components Woven and nonwoven interlinings, waddings Sewing threads, labels, fasteners (zips, Velcro) Geotech Ground stabilisation geotextiles Soil reinforcement geotextiles Erosion control geotextiles Pit linings Hometech Woven carpet backings, nonwoven carpet backings, carpet ground yarns Spring wrap, insulators, fibrefill, webbings, mattress components, curtain tapes,

platform cloths, dust cloths, nonwoven furniture components, thread Woven and nonwoven wipes, nonwoven vacuum filters, HVAC filters Mattress tickings, pillow tickings Composites Indutech Filters: air, nonwoven dust, nonwoven liquid, other nonwoven, other woven,

cigarette; papermaking felts Conveyor belt, hoses, drive belting Abrasives, brushes, woven wipes, nonwoven wipes Lifting webs, ropes Cable components, electrical composites, battery separators, etc Seals/gaskets, misc. coated fabrics, fibrefill, other composites Medtech Wipes, cotton wool Coverstock Woven, knit, nonwoven woundcare, sterile packaging Woven and nonwoven gowns/drapes, medical mattresses Mobiltech Car, CV tyre cord, hose, belts Seat belts, air bags Upholstery, woven and nonwoven trim, insulation Tufted, needled carpets, backing Truck covers, tie downs Transport composites, marine composites Cabin filters, ropes Packtech FIBCs, sacks, laundry bags Teabags, misc. nonwoven packaging (soaker pads, envelopes, etc) Twine (non-baler) Netting, other woven strapping, etc Protech Dust protection/clean room fabrics, asbestos protection fabrics, face masks Durable and disposable chemical protection, NBC fabrics Heat, fire resistant fabrics Anti-ballistic, cut/slash protection fabrics Foul weather clothing, hi-visibility fabrics Safety straps/harnesses (excl car seat belts) Sporttech Sports bags/straps, textile shopping bags, substrates for leathergoods Sports nets, foot balls, ropes, artificial turf, equipment composites, sports ropes, sail

cloth, air-sport fabrics, animal webbing Tents, sleeping bag fabrics, sleeping bag fillings Flags, bookcloth, boat covers Oekotech Products included in the list above that are used for environmental protection

applications: housewrap (Buildtech), erosion control, pit linings (Geotextiles), woven filters, NW dust filters (Indutech), insulation (Mobiltech)

Total 12 Total ca. 150

Source: DRA

Exhibit A2.1

Products included in the Technical Textiles Partition of DRA’s Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System

A2.6 © 2003

Regions/Countries Polymer/Fibre Types Polymer/Fibre Forms (Yarn Type)

Fabrics & other Final Textile Products (Fabric Type)

Coatings

Summary Full Level List





N America Canada, USA S America Mexico, Brazil, other

Central, South America

W Europe Countries of EU,

EFTA, etc E Europe Central/Eastern

Europe, incl. CIS, Baltic states

S Asia India, Pakistan, Sub-

continent. N E Asia Japan, China, Hong

Kong, Korea, Taiwan, Macau.

S E Asia Philippines, Thailand,

Malaysia, other ASEAN

Rest of World Including Middle East

(Turkey, Egypt, countries of Middle East), Africa (all African countries), Central Asia (Asian Republics, other ex-USSR) and Oceania (Australasia, South Pacific islands).

Natural Cotton

Wool

Others

Wood-pulp

Regenerated Viscose

Other cellulosic fibres

Synthetic Polyester

Polyamide

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Acrylic

Elastomeric

p-aramid

m-aramid

Other synthetic high performance

Inorganic Glass

Carbon

Ceramic

Steel

Polymer chip Polymer chip

Staple fibre Staple fibre

Spun staple yarn Spun staple yarn

Multifilament yarn Textile (regular tenacity)

Industrial (high tenacity)

BCF

Monofilament yarn Monofilament yarn

Tape and slit film yarn Tape and slit film yarn

Unspun fibre Unspun fibre

Yarn type products Ropes

Other braided products

Non-braided yarn type products

Woven fabrics Broadwoven fabric

Narrow-woven fabric

Circular-woven fabric

Knitted fabrics Warp knitted fabric

Weft knitted fabric

Hosiery knit

Sliver knitted fabric

Seamless knit

Flat-bed knitted fabric

Nonwoven fabrics Dry-laid nonwovens

Air-laid nonwovens

Wet-laid nonwovens

Extruded nonwovens

Other fabrics Tufted fabrics

Knotted nets

Coated PVC

PU

Rubber

Other

Uncoated Uncoated

8 210 4 19 6 8 6 19 2 5

Source: DRA

Exhibit A2.2 Full List of Variables and their Subsets in the Technical Textiles Partition of DRA’s Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System

DRA use the following main approaches in its consulting work in the technical textilesand industrial nonwovens sector.

• International business research: covering technologies, production processes, products, end-uses, markets,supply chains, end-users, value chains, companies, competitors etc.

• Modelling and forecasting end-use markets: describing the current market and providing forecasts of its future size, value,structure and geographical breakdown; giving estimates of the volumes of thedifferent fibres, yarns, chemicals, machinery and other inputs that will berequired to meet these forecasts.

• Strategic marketing assessments: including marketing and sales audits, customer perception studies,formulating strategies for future product/market/customer focus and ways ofachieving competitive advantage, market entry and expansion/planning, andrecommending supply chain policies.

• Business strategy formulation:covering product/market focus, business portfolio analysis, technology policy,planning capital expenditure and R & D programmes, finding joint venturepartners, and mergers and acquisitions.

• Knowledge management systems:which capture, integrate and make easily updateable the key informationrelevant to business and market planning decisions.

Details of typical projects and some relevant published articles can be found on theDRA website, www.davidrigbyassociates.com

David Rigby Associates26 Cross StreetManchesterM2 7AFTel: +44 (0)161 839 0990 Fax: +44 (0)161 839 0660Email: [email protected] Website: www.davidrigbyassociates.com

DRA’s Consulting Services

Target Client GroupsCompanies already inthe industry:seeking to adapt their businessesto changing market conditionsand to identify and exploitmarket opportunities.

Textile companies wishingto enter the industry:often to diversify away from thedecline of their existingconsumer-driven businesses.

Fibre producers:wishing to commercialise new orimproved fibres or to upgradetheir business in establishedfibres.

Chemical companies:looking for market opportunitiesamong the many chemicals usedin the industry: spin finishes,textile processing chemicals,coating compounds, adhesives,effect chemicals, additives etc.

Machinery manufacturers:deciding how to increase productperformance and reduce cost inthe many industry processes:fibre extrusion, spinning,weaving, knitting, coating,laminating, nonwovensmanufacturing, making-up etc.

Banks and venturecapital companies:identifying and screeninginvestment opportunities in thesector, including MBOs, MBIs etc.

Governments and NGOs:seeking to promote their localtextile industries.

DRA provide consulting services to many types of clients in and around the technical textiles and nonwovens industries.

Typical Issues• How to respond to the increasing maturity of the sector• Which product/market segments should we compete in?• How should we compete: lowest cost, best product or trusted development

partner?• What supply chains to belong to: who to form relationships with?• Growth opportunities: new products, markets, customers?• Are we buyers or a sellers of businesses?

• Which of our current skills, knowledge and machinery could be used intechnical textiles and nonwovens?

• To which market segments could they be best applied: what else do weneed to succeed?

• What is our market entry plan and its costs, risks and rewards?• Should we enter the industry or not?

• Which are the high growth segments: products, markets, countries?• Who are the key specifiers, influencers and decision-makers?• What are the drivers for interfibre competition and substitution?• What new performance does the industry and its customers need?• How can we increase our supply chain power?

• Which are the growth segments: fibre types, fabric types, coating,laminating, performance areas?

• How can our existing products improve performance or reduce costs?• What are the important new performance needs?• What new products should we develop?• Who are the key decision makers?• Which partners should we work with in the supply chain?

• What new or improved machinery does the technical textiles/nonwovenindustry need?

• What new products could we produce and what would be the market forthem?

• How should this influence the priorities in our product developmentprogramme?

• Who should we collaborate with in the supply chain in specifying andtrialling our products?

• What new technologies do we need to develop or acquire?

• Where does the technical textiles/nonwovens industry rank among ourinvestment options?

• Which segments of it are attractive and which unattractive?• Are there any specialists who can carry out technical and marketing due

diligence work on potential investments?

• How can we diversify away from our consumer textile industries?• Do we already have a local technical textiles/nonwovens industry?• What are its strengths and future potential?• What help does it need to grow and prosper?• Who could provide that help?

Documents

VISCOSE RAYON in Technical Textiles and Nonwovens World Market Forecasts to 2010