Visualizing Polar Change: Data and Tools to Understand an Arctic Climate in Transformation Walt Meier Thanks to: Lisa Ballagh, Ross Swick, John Mauer,

Visualizing Polar Change: Data and Tools to Understand an Arctic Climate in Transformation

Walt Meier

Thanks to: Lisa Ballagh, Ross Swick, John Mauer, Florence Fetterer, Ken Knowles, Mary Jo Brodzik

http://nsidc.org

Visualizing Polar Change

U.S.S. Jeannette Expedition, 1879-1881

U.S. Naval Historical Center, http://www.history.navy.mil/


That was then… This is now

Jeannette could’ve made it to within 500 km of North Pole before encountering almost

any ice

Little hope that Jeannette would get within 2000 km of

North Pole

NSIDC on GoogleEarthhttp://nsidc.org/data/virtual_globes/


The Cryosphere – The World of Ice and Snow

Snow, sea ice, glaciers, ice sheets, frozen ground

Spans 90°S 0° 90°N Affects over 100 countries

Atlas of the Cryosphere, http://nsidc.org/data/atlas/


Sea Ice Extent Varies through the Year

Mar = 15,000,000 km2

Sep = 7,000,000 km2

Mar = 4,000,000 km2

Sep = 19,000,000 km2

Adapted from the Sea Ice Indexhttp://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/


Sea Ice Varies from Year to Year

September Monthly Sea Ice, 1979 – 2007 NASA Blue Marble. Thanks to M. Savoie

1979-2000 Median


Summer Sea Ice is Rapidly Decreasing

Trend = -10.2% per decade

1979 – 2000 Avg. = 7.0 million km2

Data from NSIDC Sea Ice Indexhttp://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

2007 = 4.3 million km2


How Much Sea Ice Loss are We Talking About?

1980: 7.85 million sq km



Image by D. Perovich, Cold Regions Res. Eng. Lab

September Monthly Average Sea Ice Extent

from the Sea Ice Index


Climate Models are Underestimating Speed of Changes

2007 = 4.28

Observations vs. IPCC model simulations for month of September

Range of Models

Observations

From Stroeve et al., 2007


Impacts of an Arctic without Summer Sea Ice

Photo by Mike Webber, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service


Sea Ice – Albedo Feedback

Temperature

Ice melt

Albedo

Energy absorption

Heat Amplification of

warming


Albedo – How Much Solar Energy Gets Absorbed

With sea ice: <40% absorbed Without sea ice: >90% absorbed

The change from sea ice to ice-free ocean is the largest surface contrast on earth as far as solar energy is concerned

200+ W/m2 difference for a clear mid-summer dayUp to 100X direct CO2 forcing locally


Loss of Sea Ice Will Impact Climate Globally

CO

Alaska

Sewall and Sloan, Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west, Geophysical Research Letters, 2004.

Precipitation decrease without Arctic sea ice during the summer


Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Loss• Polar bears rely on sea ice to hunt for food - 2/3

reduction in polar bear population within 50 years (USGS)

• Other wildlife – walrus, seals, birds, fish – also will be impacted significantly

• Inuit communities rely on ice for transportation, hunting; indelible part of native cultures in the north

• Lack of ice coastal erosion is a substantial threat to buildings and towns

• Some positive benefits – commerce, e.g. through Northwest Passage

• Natural resources (oil, gas, minerals)• Possible conflicts over national

sovereignty – who “owns” the Arctic?

Photo by Craig George


Greenland

The 800-Pound Gorilla of Arctic Climate Change


Greenland is Melting and Losing Mass

Greenland Mass BalanceNASA Earth Observatory, from GRACE satellite

2007 Greenland MeltNSIDC, W. Abdalati (NASA)


Jakobshavn Isbrae

• World’s fastest flowing glacier, ~20 m per day

• Speed has doubled in recent years

• Edge of glacier has retreated dramatically since 1997

• Many Greenland outlet glaciers are accelerating, thinning, and termini retreating

Landsat imagery, NASA


Greenland ice equivalent to ~20 feet sea level rise


Glaciers are Receding Worldwide

1941 William O. Field Bruce Molnia, USGS 2004Muir Glacier, Alaska


Glaciers are Receding Worldwide

Muir GlacierAlaska

NSIDC Glacier PairsPhoto Archive


Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS)

Glacier outlines and imagery

Research-level data

http://nsidc.org/glims


Permafrost is Thawing

Chersky, Russia

Qinghai-Xizang Highway bridge collapse

Alaska

Alaska Thawing permafrost will not only affect infrastructure.

There are massive amounts of GHG locked in the frozen ground that could be released if the permafrost thaws.


Snow Cover is Variable, Little Overall Trend

Weekly Snow and Ice Coverhttp://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0046.html

NOAA IMS Daily Snow Coverhttp://nsidc.org/data/g02156.html

10 Feb 2008 5-11 Feb 2007


Snow is Melting Earlier in Spring

Earlier snow melt has impacts on water resources – reservoir replenishment

From IPCC AR4


Antarctica

The Sleeping Giant of Climate Change

Mosaic of Antarcticahttp://nsidc.org/data/moa/


Larsen-B: The First Victim of Global Warming?

• Ice shelf the size of Rhode Island collapsed in weeks

• First time area free of ice in ~12,000 years

• Glaciers behind ice shelf have accelerated significantly sea level rise

31 January – 7 March 2002

NA

SA

/NS

IDC

Atlas of the Cryosphere


Whither Arctic Sea Ice?Using Sea Ice Data in the Classroom

AccessData Earth Exploration Toolbook chapter

http://serc.carleton.edu/eet/seaice/

Developed by:

Walt Meier National Snow and Ice Data Center, Univ. ColoradoCoop. Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences

Betsy YoungmanPhoenix Country Day School

Mark McCaffreyCoop. Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences

Anupma PrakashGeophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks

Brian RoganBoston Museum of Science


Whither Arctic Sea Ice?Using Sea Ice Data in the Classroom

• Use satellite data of sea ice to analyze trends and variability, 1979 - present

• Case studies for various regions• Impacts on people/wildlife• Hudson Bay developed, others

possible• Imagery and animations for qualitative

analysis• Quantitative data for more involved analysis

• Uses ImageJ (freeware) for data/image analysis and processing

• MS Excel or other spreadsheet for further data analysis

• Data from NSIDC via ftp


Going Further – Hudson Bay Case Study

Hudson Bay Sea Ice Extent

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

Year

Ex

ten

t (s

q.

km

.)

July Extent

November Extent

July Trend

November Trend

• Timing of when ice leaves Hudson Bay and when it returns

• Examine trends and variability

• How might trends affect polar bears in future?

• Other case studies on different regions, asking different questions can be developed


Northwest Passage – That Was Then

After 400 years of trying, Roald Amundsen successfully navigated the NW Passage in 1906

It took him and his crew nearly 3 years


21 Aug 2007

From Univ. of Bremen

Amundsen’s Route

In 2007, a 57-foot sailboat navigated the passage in a few weeks

Northwest Passage – This Is Now


NSIDC Visualization Data and Tools• NSIDC on GoogleEarth

http://nsidc.org/data/virtual_globes/• Atlas of the Cryosphere

http://nsidc.org/data/atlas/• Sea Ice Index

nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/• Mosaic of Antarctica

http://nsidc.org/data/moa/• GLIMS

http://nsidc.org/glims/• Glacier Photographs

http://nsidc.org/data/g00472.html• Weekly Snow Cover Climatology

http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0046.html• Daily Snow Cover

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/• Other Cryospheric Information

http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/• Whither Arctic Sea Ice? EET Chapter

http://serc.carleton.edu/eet/seaice/

Funding and Support from

[email protected]

Documents

Visualizing Polar Change: Data and Tools to Understand an Arctic Climate in Transformation Walt Meier Thanks to: Lisa Ballagh, Ross Swick, John Mauer,