VITA NAME: Michael S. Lewis-Beck TITLE: F. Wendell Miller Distinguished Professor of Political Science ADDRESS: Department of Political Science University of Iowa Iowa City, Iowa 52242 HOME ADDRESS: 417 Brown Street, Iowa City, Iowa 52245 TELEPHONE: 319-335-2350 (office) 319-351-3245 (home) FAX: 319-335-3400 E-MAIL: michael-lewis-beck@uiowa.edu WEB PROFILE : http://www.polisci.uiowa.edu/faculty/bio/lewis-beck.shtml ACADEMIC DEGREES:

Ph.D. University of Michigan December, 1973 * * * M.A. University of Michigan August, 1966 B.A.(honors) Ball State University June, 1965

*From 1966-1968, I served with the Peace Corps in

Guatemala. FOREIGN LANGUAGES: French, Spanish and Italian. CITATION COUNT: Google Scholar > 18,500(an approximation that includes published papers, chapters, or books). The h-index equals 58. BOOKS, MONOGRAPHS, COLLECTIONS:

2

2

Latin American Elections: Choice and Change, with Richard Nadeau, Eric Bélanger, Mathieu Turgeon, and François Gélineau, University of Michigan Press, 2017. Electoral Rules and Electoral Behavior: The Scope of Effects, with Ruth Dassonneville and March Hooghe, Routledge, 2017. The Effects of Electoral Rules on Electoral Behavior: A Comparative Approach, editor, with Ruth Dassonneville and March Hooghe, Special Issue, West European Politics, Vol.40, No.3, May 2017. Understanding Electoral Politics in Contemporary Italy: Policy Preferences, Personalization, Partisanship and the Economy, editor, with Paolo Bellucci and Diego Garzia, Special Issue, Contemporary Italian Politics, Vol.9, Issue No.1, April 2017. The Handbook of Electoral Behavior,(two volumes), editor, with Kai Arzheimer and Jocelyn Evans, Sage Publications, 2017. Forecasting the 2015 British General Election, editor, with Stephen Fisher, Special Issue, Electoral Studies, Vol.41 (March), 2016. Applied Regression: An Introduction, Second Edition, with Colin Lewis-Beck, Sage, 2015. Forecasting US Presidential Elections: New Approaches, editor, with Drew Linzer, Special Section, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.31, No.3, 2015. The Economic Voter and Economic Crisis, editor, with Ruth Dassonnville, Special Issue, Acta Politica, Vol.49, No.4, October 2014. United States Presidential Elections Forecasting, Symposium editor, with Mary Stegmaier, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.47, No.2, April, 2014. The Austrian Voter, with Sylvia Kritzinger, Eva Zeglovits, and Richard Nadeau, Vienna University Press, 2013. Economics and Elections: Effects Deep and Wide, editor, with Guy D. Whitten, Special Issue, Electoral Studies, Vol.32, No.3, September 2013.

3

3

French Presidential Elections, with Richard Nadeau and Éric Bélanger,Palgrave Macmillian, 2012. Les élections présidentielles. Le vote des Français de Mitterrand à Sarkozy, with Richard Nadeau, Éric Bélanger, Bruno Cautrès, and Martial Foucault, Presses de Sciences Po, 2012. Election Forecasting in Neglected Democracies, editor, with Éric Bélanger, Special Section, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, No.4, 2012. Economic Crisis and Elections: The European Periphery, Special Symposium, editor, with Marina Costa Lobo and Paolo Bellucci, Electoral Studies, Vol.31, No.3, September 2012. Methodologies of Election Forecasting, Symposium on the 2010 UK Election, co-editor with Rachel Gibson, Electoral Studies, Vol.30 (2),June 2011. European Election Forecasting, editor, with Bruno Jérôme, Special Section, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.25:1, January 2010. The American Voter Revisited: Special Issue, Guest Editor, Electoral Studies, Vol.28, No.4, December 2009. The Economy, Obama and the 2008 Election, Symposium Editor, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.42, No.3, July 2009. The American Voter Revisited, with William Jacoby, Helmut Norpoth, and Herbert Weisberg, University of Michigan Press, 2008. Presidential Election Forecasting, editor, with James Campbell, Special Issue, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 24, No.2, April-June 2008. French Elections under the Double Ballot, editor, with Bernard Grofman, Special Issue, French Politics, Volume 3, No.2, August 2005. The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections, editor, Palgrave MacMillian, 2004. The Sage Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods (three volumes), editor, with Alan Bryman and Tim Futing Liao, Sage, 2004. How France Votes, editor, Chatham House, 2000.

4

4

Economics and Elections, editor, with Martin Paldam, Special Issue, Electoral Studies, Vol.19, Nos.2&3, 2000. Data Analysis: An Introduction, Sage,1995. International Handbooks of Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences (six volumes), editor, Sage, 1993-1994. Forecasting Elections, with Tom W. Rice, CQ Press, 1992. Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support, editor, with Helmut Norpoth and Jean-Dominique Lafay, University of Michigan Press, 1991. Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies, University of Michigan Press, 1988. New Tools for Social Scientists: Advances and Applications in Research Methods, editor, with William D. Berry, Sage, 1986. Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes: The United States and Western Europe, editor, with Heinz Eulau, Agathon, 1985. Applied Regression: An Introduction, First Edition,Sage, 1980. ARTICLES: “Wealth and Voter Turnout: Across 28 Democracies,” with Richard Nadeau and Martial Foucault, Polity, 2019, forthcoming. “Candidates and Campaigns: How They Alter Election Forecasts,” with Charles Tien, Electoral Studies, 2019, forthcoming. “Economic Voting in Latin America: Rules and Responsibility,” with Melody Valdini, American Journal of Political Science, online 22 Jan 2018|DOI:10.1111/AJPS.12339. Vol.61, issue 4, 2018, forthcoming. “Forecasting Dutch Elections: An Initial Model from the March 2017 Legislative Contests,” with Ruth Dassonneville

5

5

and Philippe Mongrain, Research and Politics, July-September 2017,pp.1-7. “The Grand Coalition Reappointed but Angela Merkel on Borrowed Time,” with Bruno Jérôme, Véronique Jérôme-Speziari, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.50, No.3, July 2017,pp.683-685. “Rules, Institutions and the Economic Vote: Clarifying Clarity of Responsibility,” with Ruth Dassonneville, West European Politics, Vol.40, No.3, 2017,pp. 503 – 515. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2016.1266186 (online version). “Do Electoral Rules have an Effect on Electoral Behavior? An Impact Analysis,” with Ruth Dassonneville and Marc Hooghe, West European Politics, Vol. 40, No.3, 2017, pp.534-559. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2016.1271597. “Understanding Electoral Politics in Contemporary Italy: Policy Preferences, Personalization, Partisanship and the Economy,” with Paolo Bellucci and Diego Garzia, Contemporary Italian Politics, Vol.9, Issue No.1, April 2017, pp.3-7. “Patrimony, Class and Participation: French Elections (1988-2012), with Richard Nadeau, Martial Foucault, and Bruno Jérôme, French Politics, Vol.15:1 (March) 2017,pp.106-127. “The Political Economy Model: 2016 US Election Forecasts,” with Charles Tien, PS: Political Science and Politics, October, 2016, pp.661-663. “How Obama will Lift Clinton to Victory,Barely.” The Hill, September 8, 2016. http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/295078-how-obama-will-lift-clinton-to-victory-barely “The Hispanic Immigrant Voter and the Classic American Voter,” with Mary Stegmaier, RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, Special issue on Immigrants Inside Politics/Outside Citizenship, Michael Jones-Correa and James A. McCann, editors, Vol.2, Issue 3, June 2016,pp.165-181. “Punishing Local Incumbents for the Local Economy: Economic Voting in the 2012 Belgian Municipal Election, “ with Ruth Dassonneville and Ellen Claes, Italian Political Science Review Vol.46, Issue 1, March 2016, pp.3-22.

6

6

“Forecasting the 2015 British General Election: The 1992 Debacle All Over Again?,” with Stephen Fisher, Electoral Studies, Vol.41, 2016, pp.225-229. “The British General Election: Synthetic Forecasts,” with Richard Nadeau and Eric Bélanger, Electoral Studies, Vol.41, 2016,pp.264-268. “Sanders Excede As Expectatives: Desde Iowa até Indiana Revista Sábado,”Fundacão Luso-Americano Para o Desenvolvimento. May 10, 2016. http://eua2016.sabado.pt/2016/05/10/sanders-excedeu-as-expectativas-do-iowa-ao-indiana/ “Economía y elecciones en Argentina: las dimensiones clásica (valence),posicional y patrimonial de la teoría del voto económico”, with Maria Celeste Ratto, Richard Nadeau, Eric Bélanger, Richard Nadeau, François Gélineau, and Mathieu Turgeon, Revista Sociedad Argentina de Análisis Político, Revista SAAP (ISSN 1666-7883) Vol. 9, Nº 2, noviembre 2015, 235-266. “Comparative Election Forecasting: Further Insights from Synthetic Models,” with Ruth Dassonneville, Electoral Studies, Vol. 39,2015, pp.275-283. “Forecasting US Presidential Elections: New Approaches (an Introduction),” with Drew Linzer International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.31, No.3, 2015, pp.895-897. “Rendición de Cuentas en las Democracias en Desarrollo: El votante Latinoamericano," with Maria Celeste Ratto, Richard Nadeau, Eric Bélanger, François Gélineau, Mathieu Turgeon, Revista de Ciencia Política, Vol.35, No.3, 2015, 463-488. “Forecasting Lessons from 2014: Long Lead, Strong Theory, No Polls,” with Charles Tien, PS: Political Science and Politics, April, 2015, pp.297-299. “Forecasting Elections in Europe: Synthetic Models,” with Ruth Dassonneville, Research and Politics, January, 2015, 2 (1), DOI: 10.1177/2053168014565128. “Quantitative Methods in Political Science: Research in France and the United States,” with Éric Bélanger, French Politics, Vol. 13, No.2, 2015, pp.175-184. “Forecasting Partisan Dynamics in France and in Euroland,” with Bruno Jérôme, Véronique Jérôme-Speziari and Richard Nadeau, French Politics, Vol.13, NO.1, April, 2015, 103-109.

7

7

“Explaining French Elections: The Presidential Pivot,” with Richard Nadeau, French Politics, Vol.13, No.1, April, 2015, pp.25-62. “Issues and Leaders as Vote Determinants: The Italian Case,” with Paolo Bellucci and Diego Garzia, Party Politics, Vol.21 (2),272-283, 2015. “Macroeconomics, Economic Crisis and Electoral Outcomes: A National European Pool,’ with Ruth Dassonneville,Vol.49, No.4, Acta Politica, October 2014,pp.372-394. “Economic Voter and Economic Crisis: An Introduction,” with Ruth Dassonnevile, Acta Politica, Vol.49, No.4,October 2014, pp.369-372. “Congressional Elections Forecasting: Structure-X Models for 2014,” with Charles Tien, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.47, No.4, October, 2014, pp. 782-785. “Proxy Models and Nowcasting: US Presidential Elections in the Future,” with Charles Tien, Presidential Studies Quarterly, September, 2014, Vol.44, No.3, pp.506-521. “Weather, Forecasts, Elections: After Richardson, “ with Mary Stegmaier, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.47, No.2, April, 2014,pp. 322-325. “United States Presidential Election Forecasting: An Introduction,’ with Mary Stegmaier, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.47, No.2, April, 2014, pp.284-288. “Scope Conditions of Economic Voting: The Danish Exception?” with Rune Stubager, Niels Botterill, and Richard Nadeau, Electoral Studies, Vol. 34, 2014, pp.16-26. “Patrimony and French Presidential Vote Choice: Evidence from the 2012 Election,” with Eric Bélanger, Richard Nadeau, Mathieu Turgeon, and Martial Foucault, French Politics, Vol. 12, No.1,2014,pp.59-68. “Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe,” with Ruth Dassonnville, Political Science Research and Methods, Vol. 1, No.1, June 2013,pp.53-66. “The V-P Function Revisited: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after over 40 Years,” with Mary Stegmaier, Public Choice, Vol. 157, Issue 3 (December),2013, pp.367-385.

8

8

“Economics and Elections: Effects Deep and Wide, An Introduction,” with Guy D. Whitten, Electoral Studies, Vol.32, No.3, September 2013,pp.393-395. “A Chinese Popularity Function: Sources of Government Support,” with Wenfang Tang and Nicolas Martini, Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 67, Issue 1, March 2014,pp.16-25. “Government for the People in China?,” with Wenfang Tang and Nicolas Martini, The Diplomat, June 17, 2013, pp.1-3. “A Political-Economy Forecast for the 2013 German Elections: Who to Rule with Angela Merkel?”, with Bruno Jérôme and Véronique Jérôme-Speziari, PS: Political Science and Politics, vol.46, no.3, 2013, pp.479-480. “The Compleat Economic Voter: New Theory and British Evidence,” with Richard Nadeau, Martial Foucault, British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 43, No.2,April 2013,pp.241-261. “Economics and Elections Revisited,” with Richard Nadeau and Éric Bélanger, Comparative Political Studies, May 2013, Vol.46, No.5, pp.551-573. “Economic Vote Instability: Endogeneity or Restricted Variance? Spanish Panel Evidence (2008 and 2011),” with Marta Fraile, European Journal of Political Research, 2014, 53:1, pp.160-179. “Standing for Parliament: Do Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic Candidates Pay Extra?” with Mary Stegmaier and Kaat Smets, Parliamentary Affairs, Vol. 66, No.2, April 2013, pp.268-285. “The Kramer Problem: Micro-Macro Resolution with a Danish Pool,” with Rune Stubager and Richard Nadeau, Electoral Studies, Vol.32, No.3, September 2013, pp.500-505. “The Nature of Economic Perceptions in Mass Publics,” with D. Roderick Kiewiet and Nicholas Martini, Electoral Studies, Vol.32, No.3, September 2013, pp.524-528. “Economic Voting in Latin America: A General Model,” with Maria Celeste Ratto, Electoral Studies, Vol.32, No.3, September 2013, pp.489-493. “Reaching for Profit in the Welfare State: Patrimonial Economic Voting in Denmark,” with Rune Stubager and Richard

9

9

Nadeau, Electoral Studies, Vol.32, No.3, September 2013, pp.438-444. “Patrimonial Voting:Refining Measures,” with Martial Foucault and Richard Nadeau, Electoral Studies, Vol.32, No.3, September 2013, pp.557-562. “Multi-Dimensional Economic Voting in Spain: The 2008 Election,” with Marta Fraile, Electoral Studies, Vol.32, No.3, September 2013, pp.465-469. “Choosing the Dependent Variable: Sarkozy’s Forecasting Lesson,” with Éric Bélanger and Richard Nadeau, French Politics, Vol.10:4, December 2012, pp.364-368. “Leader Images in Forecasting: Sarkozy Partly Overcomes his Record,” with Richard Nadeau and Thomas Didier, French Politics, Vol.10:4, December 2012, pp.369-372. “French Election Theory: Why Sarkozy Lost,” with Richard Nadeau, Parliamentary Affairs, Vol.66,No.1, 2013, pp.52-68. “Proxy Forecasts: A Working Strategy,” with Charles Tien, PS: Political Science and Politics,Vol.46, No.1, 2013,pp.39-40. “Election Forecasting in Turbulent Times,” with Charles Tien, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol. 45, 625-629, fall, 2012. “Obama and 2012: Still a Racial Cost to Pay?” with Charles Tien, Richard Nadeau, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.45, 591-595, fall, 2012. “Election Forecasting in Neglected Democracies: An Introduction” with Éric Bélanger, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.28, No.4, 2012, pp.767-768.

“Forecasting Spanish General Elections,” with Pedro Magalhães and Luis Aguiar-Conraria, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.28, No.4, 2012, pp.769-776. “Japanese Election Forecasting: Classic Tests of a Hard Case,” with Charles Tien, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.28, No.4, 2012, pp.797-803.

10

10

“Economic Crisis and Elections: The European Periphery,” with Paolo Bellucci and Marina Costa Lobo, Electoral Studies, Vol.31, No.3, September 2012,pp.469-471. “PIGS or Not? Economic Voting in Southern Europe,” with Richard Nadeau, Electoral Studies, Vol.31, No.3, September 2012, pp.472-477. “The Integration Hypothesis: How the European Union shapes the Economic Vote,” with Marina Costa Lobo, Electoral Studies, Vol. 31, No.3, September 2012, 522-528.. “Economics and Elections in Spain (1982-2008): Cross-Measures, Cross-Time,” with Marta Fraile, Electoral Studies, Vol. 31, No.3, September 2012, pp.485-490. “Proxy Models for Election Forecasting: The 2012 French Test,” with Richard Nadeau and Éric Bélanger, French Politics, Vol. 10, 1, pp.1-10, 2012. “Leader Images and Election Forecasting: French Presidential Contests,” with Richard Nadeau and Thomas Didier, French Politics, Vol. 10, 1, 2012. “No ‘Man’ is an Island: Self-Interest, the Public Interest, and Sociotropic Voting,” with D. Roderick Kiewiet, Critical Review, Vol.23 (3), pp.303-319 2011. “Does a Presidential Candidate’s Campaign Affect the Election Outcome?” with Richard Nadeau, Foresight, Issue 24, Winter 2012, pp.15-18. “Second-Order Elections and Economic Voting: The French Regional Example,” with Christine Fauvelle-Aymar, Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, Vol.XLI, no.3, December, 2011,pp.369-384. “A Stable Popularity Function? Cross-National Analysis,” with Paolo Bellucci, European Journal of Political Research, Vol.50, 2011, pp.190-211. “Anchoring the Portuguese Voter: Panel Dynamics in a Newer Electorate,” with Marina Costa Lobo, Political Research Quarterly, vol.64, June 2011, pp.293-308. “Assets and Risks: A Neglected Dimension of Economic Voting,” with Martial Foucault, Richard Nadeau, French Politics, vol 9, no.2, 2011, pp.97-119.

11

11

“Economic Voting Theory: Testing New Dimensions,” with Richard Nadeau, Electoral Studies, Vol.30(2),2011,pp.288-294. “La persistence de l’effet patrimoine lors des elections présidentielles françaises, with Martial Foucault, Richard Nadeau, Revue française de science politique, Vol. 61 (4), 2011, pp.659-680. “Methodologies of Election Forecasting: Calling the UK ‘Hung Parliament,” with Rachel Gibson, Electoral Studies, Vol.30 (2),2011, pp.247-249. “Citizen Forecasting: Can UK Voters see the Future?” with Mary Stegmaier, Electoral Studies,Vol.30(2) 2011,pp.264-268. “Congressional Election Forecasting: Theory v. Tracking in 2010,” with Charles Tien, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.44, No.1, 2011,pp.2-4. “Nowcasting v. Polling: The 2010 UK Election Trials,” with Richard Nadeau and Eric Bélanger, Electoral Studies, Vol.30(2),2011, pp.284-287. “French Electoral Reform and the Abstention Rate,” with Christine Fauvelle-Aymar and Richard Nadeau, Parliamentary Affairs, Vol. 64, No.1, January 2011,45-60. “Shocks and Oscillations: The Political Economy of Hungary,” with Mary Stegmaier, Electoral Studies, Vol.30, 2011,pp.462-467. “The Referendum Model: A 2010 Congressional Forecast,” with Charles Tien, PS: Political Science and Politics, October 2010, Vol.43, No.4, 2010,pp.637-638. “Forecasting the Vote for a Third Party: The British Liberals, 1974-2005,” with Eric Bélanger and Richard Nadeau, British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 2010, Vol.12, 634-643. “Leadership Traits in French National Election Studies: Measurement Issues,” Richard Nadeau, French Politics, Vol.8, No.2, 2010, pp.215-221. “Economic Voting in Spain: A 2000 Panel Test,” with Marta Fraile, Electoral Studies, Vol.29, No.2, June 2010,pp.210-220.

12

12

“Patrimonial Economic Voting: French Legislative Elections,” with Richard Nadeau and Martial Foucault, West European Politics, Vol.33, No.6, November 2010, pp.1261-1277. “European Election Forecasting: An Introduction,” with Bruno Jérôme, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.25:1, January 2010, pp.9-10. “Obama’s Missed Landslide: A Racial Cost?,” with Charles Tien, Richard Nadeau, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.43:1,January 2010,pp.69-76. “French National Elections: Democracy in Disequilibrium,” with Eric Bélanger, Canadian Journal of Political Science, Vol.43, No.l, March 2010,pp.107-122. “The Economy, Obama and the 2008 Election: An Introduction,” PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.42, No.3, July, 2009, 457-458. “Obama and the Economy in 2008,” with Richard Nadeau, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.42, No.3, July, 2009, 479-483. “Learning the Economic Vote: Hungarian Forecasts 1998-2010,” with Mary Stegmaier, Politics and Policy, Vol.37, No.4, August 2009, pp.769-781. “Macroeconomics and the 2008 Election,” with Mary Stegmaier, The Political Economist,Vol.XI, No.1 2009,pp.11-14. “Election Forecasting in France: A Multi-Equation Solution,” with Eric Bélanger and Richard Nadeau, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.25:1, 2010,pp.11-18. “Election Forecasting in the United Kingdom: A Two-Step Model,” with Eric Bélanger and Richard Nadeau, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties, Vol.19, No.3, 333-358, August 2009. “Revisiting The American Voter,” Electoral Studies, Volume 28, No.4, December 2009, pp.521-522. “From American Voter to Economic Voter,” with Mary Stegmaier, Electoral Studies, Vol.28, No.4, December 2009,pp.625-631. “Iowa: The Most Representative State?,” with Peverill Squire, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol. 42 (1) 2009,pp.39-44.

13

13

“Race Blunts the Economic Effect? The 2008 Obama Forecast,” with Charles Tien, PS: Political Science and Politics, 42 (1) 2009, pp.21-22. “TR v. PR: French Double Ballot Effects,” with Christine Fauvelle-Aymar, Electoral Studies, Vol.27, No.3, September 2008, pp.400-406. “The Jobs Model and the Job of President: Obama in ’08?,” with Charles Tien, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.41, No.2, 2008, pp.687-690. “Economic Voting in Transitional Democracies,” with Mary Stegmaier, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, Vol.18, No.3,October 2008,303-323. “Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royal and the Iowa Model,” with Eric Bélanger, Christine Fauvelle-Aymar, French Politics,Vol.6, No.2, July 2008, 106-115. “Forecasting Presidential Elections: When to Change the Model?,” with Charles Tien, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 24, No.2, April-June 2008,pp.227-236. “Presidential Election Forecasting: An Introduction,” with James Campbell, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 24, No.2, April-June 2008,pp.189-192. “Economics, Party, and the Vote: Causality Issues and Panel Data,” with Richard Nadeau and Angelo Elias, American Journal of Political Science, Vol.52, No.1, January 2008,pp.84-95. “Is OLS Dead?,” with James Krueger, The Political Methodologist,Vol.15, No.2, 2008, pp.2-4. “Is Comparative Politics Methodologically Exceptional?,” APSA-CP, Volume 19, No.1, Winter, 2008,pp.11-12. “Goodness-of-Fit: R-squared, SEE, and ‘Best Practice’,” with James Krueger, The Political Methodologist, Vol.15, No.1, Summer 2007, pp.2-4. “Iowa couronne Royal,” with Eric Bélanger and Christine Fauvelle-Aymar, Libération (deuxieme edition, No.8028), mercredi 28 février, 2007, p.11.

14

14

“Experimenting with French Election Rules: Initial Results,” with Jill Wittrock, French Politics, Vol.5, No.1, April 2007,pp.106-117. “The French ‘Petit Oui:’ The Maastricht Treaty and the French Voting Agenda,” with Daniel Morey, Journal of Inter-Disciplinary History, XXXVIII:1, Summer 2007, pp.65-87. “Party, Ideology, and Vote Intentions: Dynamics from the 2002 French Electoral Panel,” with Eric Bélanger, Jean Chiche, and Vincent Tiberj, Political Research Quarterly, Vol.59, No.4,December 2006,pp.503-515. “Does Economics Still Matter? Econometrics and the Vote,” Journal of Politics, Vol.68, No.1,February 2006, pp.208-212. “La Victoire Anticipée des Travaillistes,” with Richard Nadeau and Eric Bélanger, mardi 3 mai 2005, Libération, deuxieme edition No. 7458, p.37. “Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice,” British Journal of Politics and International Relations, Volume 7,No.2,pp.145-164, May 2005. “A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election,” with Eric Bélanger, Richard Nadeau, British Journal of Politics and International Relations, Volume 7,No.2,pp.191-198, May 2005. “French Elections Under the Double Ballot System: An Introduction,” with Bernard Grofman, French Politics, Vol.3, pp.93-97, 2005. “Coalition Strategies and the National Front Vote in French Legislative Contests,” with Christine Fauvelle-Aymar, French Politics, Vol.3, pp.164-177, 2005. “The Jobs Model Forecast: Well Done in 2004,” with Charles Tien, PS: Political Science and Politics, Volume 38,No.1, January, 2005,pp.27-30. “Pourquoi Kerry Peut Gagner,” with Christine Fauvelle-Aymar, Libération, No.7278, 5 octobre 2004, p.5. “Jobs and the Job of President: Forecast for 2004,” with Charles Tien, PS: Political Science and Politics, Volume 37, No.4, October, 2004,pp.753-758.

15

15

“State-Level Forecasts of US Senate Elections,” with Kedron Bardwell, PS: Political Science and Politics, Volume 37, No.4, October, 2004, pp.821-826. “Split-Ticket Voting: The Effects of Cognitive Madisonianism," with Richard Nadeau, Journal of Politics, Vol. 66, No.1, February, 2004, pp.97-112. "The Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods: A Preview," The Political Methodologist, Vol.11,No.2,Spring, 2003, p.12. "Data,Measures, and Methods: An Introduction," French Politics, Vol.1, No.1, 2003,pp.135-136. "Reordering the French Election Calendar: Forecasting the Consequences for 2002," with Bruno Jérôme and Véronique Jérôme-Speziari, European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 42, No.3, May 2003,pp.425-440. "Post-Socialist Democratization: A Comparative Political Economy Model of the Vote for Hungary and Nicaragua," with Leslie Anderson and Mary Stegmaier, Electoral Studies 22:2003, pp.469-484. "General Election Forecasts in the United Kingdom: A Political Economy Model," with Richard Nadeau and Eric Bélanger, Electoral Studies 23:2004, pp.279-290. "Élections Allemandes: La Situation Économique fera la Différence," with Bruno Jerôme and Véronique Jerôme-Speziari, Le Figaro, 18 septembre, 2002, p.17. "Presidential Election Forecasting: The Bush-Gore Draw," with Charles Tien, Research in Political Sociology, Vol.10, 2002,pp.173-187. "Party,Ideology,Institutions and the 1995 French Presidential Election," with Kevin Chlarson, British Journal of Political Science,Vol.32, Part 3, July 2002,pp.489-512. "Pour l’Iowa, avantage Jospin," with Christine Fauvelle-Aymar, Libération, Deuxieme Edition, No. 6485, 21 mars, 2002, p.6. Teaching Undergraduate Methods:Overcoming‘Stat’Anxiety," The Political Methodologist, Vol.10, No.1, Fall, 2001, pp.7-8.

16

16

"Election 2000: How Wrong was the Forecast?," with Charles Tien, American Politics Research, Vol. 29, No.3, May 2001,pp.302-306. "Modelers v. Pollsters: The Election Forecasts Debate," The Harvard International Journal of Press and Politics,Vol.6, No.2, 2001,pp.10-14. "Modeling the Future: Lessons from the Gore Forecast," with Charles Tien, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol. 34, No.1, 2001,pp.21-23. "National Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," with Richard Nadeau, Journal of Politics, Vol. 63 (No.1,February)2001, pp.159-181. "Qui Sera le Nouveau Président des Etats-Unis?", with Jean-Dominique Lafay, Le Figaro, 20 octobre 2000, p.XIII. "Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes," with Mary Stegmaier, Annual Review of Political Science, Vol.3, 2000, pp.183-219. "Economic Voting: An Introduction," with Martin Paldam, Electoral Studies, Vol. 19 (Nos.2-3, June/September),2000, pp.113-122. "French Electoral Institutions and the Economic Vote," with Richard Nadeau, Electoral Studies, Vol.19 (Nos.2-3, June/September), 2000, pp.171-182. "Social Science Fiction," with Alan Spitzer, Journal of Inter-Disciplinary History, 30:2 (Autumn), 1999, pp.259-271. "Voters as Forecasters: Micromodels of Presidential Election Prediction," with Charles Tien, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15 (No.2, April), 1999, pp.175-184. "Polls Fail in France: Forecasts of the 1997 Legislative Election," with Bruno Jérôme and Véronique Jérôme, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.15 (No.2, April), 1999, pp.163-174. "Is Local Politics Local? French Evidence," with Bruno Jérôme, European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 35, March, 1999, pp.181-197. "Allemagne: Prévisions Politico-Économiques et Élections Législatives de Septembre 98", with Bruno Jérôme and Véronique Jérôme-Speziari, Le Figaro, 10 juillet 1998, p.X.

17

17

"Class, Religion, and the French Voter: A 'Stalled' Electorate?," French Politics and Society, Vol. 16, No.2 (Spring), 1998, pp.43-51. "Les Prévisions Politico-Economiques des Elections Cantonales," with Bruno Jerôme, Le Figaro, 27 fevrier 1998, pp.VI-VII. "L'Iowa Donne L'Opposition Gagnante," with Christine Fauvelle-Aymar, Libération, numero 4978 (23 mai),1997, p.15. "Who's the Chef? Economic Voting Under a Dual Executive," European Journal of Political Research, vol.31, no.3, 1997, pp.315-325. "The Future in Forecasting: Prospective Presidential Models," with Charles Tien, American Politics Quarterly, vol. 24, no.4, October 1996, pp.468-491. "Cross-National Election Surveys: A French Pre-Test," Electoral Studies, vol. 15, no.4, 1996, pp.513-528. "The Politics of Institutional Choice: Presidential Ballot Access for Third Parties in the United States," with Peverill Squire, British Journal of Political Science, vol. 25, part 3, July 1995, pp.419-427. "Comparaison de Prévision des Élections Présidentielles en France et aux États-Unis," Journal de la Société de Statistique de Paris, tome 136, no.1, 1995, pp.29-45. "Comparative Democracy: The Economic Development Thesis," with Ross E. Burkhart, American Political Science Review, Vol. 88 (No.4), pp.903-910, 1994. "A Republican Congress? Forecasts for 1994," with J. Mark Wrighton, Public Opinions, Vol.1, No.2, October/November 1994, pp.14-16. "1992 Presidential Election Predictions," with Tom W. Rice, The Political Methodologist, Vol. 5 (No.2), Spring-Summer, 1994, pp.13-14. "Anchoring the French Voter: Ideology Versus Party," with Christopher J. Fleury, Journal of Politics, Vol. 55, (No.4), pp.1100-1109, November, 1993.

18

18

"Déjà Vu All Over Again: A Comment on the Comment of Converse and Pierce, " with Christopher J. Fleury, Journal of Politics, Vol. 55 (No.4), pp. 1118-1126, November, 1993. Correlates of Publication Success: Some AJPS Results," with Dena Levy, PS: Political Science and Politics, September, 1993, pp.558-561. "French Electoral Theory: The National Front Test," with Glenn Mitchell II, Electoral Studies, Vol. 12 (No.2), June, 1993, pp.112-127. "Watermelon Winners: Predicting Weight from Circumference and Middle Measurements," The Ryan Norlin Pumpkin Weigh-Off Newsletter, Summer 1992, pp.2-3. "French National Elections: Political Economic Forecasts," European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 7 (December) 1991, pp.487-496. "Goodness-of-Fit and Model Specification," with Andrew Skalaban, The Political Methodologist, Spring, 1991, Vol.4, No.1, 19-20. "Transformation of the American State: The New Era-New Deal Test," with Peverill Squire, Journal of Politics, Vol. 53, No.1, February, 1991, pp.106-121. "Modelos Transnacionales de Voto Economico: Estudio de un Conjunto de Paises Europeos," with Glenn Mitchell, Revista del Instituto de Estudios Economicos, No. 4, 1990, pp.65-81. "The R-Squared: Some Straight Talk," with Andrew Skalaban, Political Analysis, Vol.2, 1990, pp.153-171. "When to Use R-Squared," with Andrew Skalaban, The Political Methodologist, Vol. 3, No.2, Fall, 1990, pp.9-11. "Regional Vote Support: The Spanish Case," with Thomas Lancaster, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 33, 1989, pp.29-43. "Economics, Votes, Protests: Western European Cases," with Brad Lockerbie, Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 22, No.2, July 1989, pp.155-177. "Citizen Forecasting: Can Voters See into the Future?," with Andrew Skalaban, British Journal of Political Science, Jan. 1989, pp.146-153.

19

19

"Congressional Election Forecasting," with Tom W. Rice, The Political Science Teacher, (Summer), 1988, pp.14-16. "Was There a Girondist Faction in the French National Convention 1792-1793?," with Alan Spitzer and Anne Hildreth, French Historical Studies (Spring), 1988, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp.519-548. "Economics and the American Voter: Past, Present, Future," Political Behavior, Vol. 10 (No.1), 1988, pp.5-21. "Capitalism, Socialism, Democracy: An Empirical Inquiry," with Greg Brunk and Greg Caldeira, European Journal of Political Research, 1987, Vol. 15, pp.459-470. "A Model Performance," Public Opinion, Vol. 9, No.6, March/April 1987, pp.57-58. "Comparative Economic Voting: Britain, France, Germany, Italy," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 30, No.2, May, 1986, pp.315-346. "Les Législatives de 1986: Nouveau Clivage ou Restauration?," Politique Economique, 3 (June), 1986, pp. 31-33. "The Spanish Voter: Tradition, Economics, Ideology," with Thomas Lancaster, Journal of Politics, Vol.48, No.3, August 1986, pp.648-674. "Un Modèle de prévision des élections législatives Françaises (avec une application pour 1986)," Revue Française de Science Politique, (Vol. 35, no.6), December, 1985, pp.1080-1091. "Are Senate Election Outcomes Predictable?," with Tom Rice, PS, Vol. 18, Fall, 1985, pp. 745-754. "Pocketbook Voting in U.S. National Election Studies: Fact or Artifact?," American Journal of Political Science, May, 1985, Vol.29, No.2, pp.348-356. "Government Growth in the United States," with Tom Rice, Journal of Politics, February, 1985, Vol. 47, pp.2-30. "Election Forecasts in 1984: How Accurate were They?," PS, Winter, 1985, Vol.18, No.1, pp.53-62.

20

20

"The Economics of Politics in Comparative Perspective: An Introduction," Political Behavior, Vol.6, No.3, 1984, pp.205-210. "Forecasting U.S. House Elections," with Tom Rice, Legislative Studies Quarterly, Vol.9, No.3, 1984, pp.475-486. "Forecasting Presidential Elections: A Comparison of Naive Models," with Tom Rice, Political Behavior, Vol. 6, No.1, 1984, pp.9-21. "Economics and the French Voter: A Microanalysis," Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 47, Fall, 1983, pp.347-360. "Localism in Presidential Elections: The Home State Advantage," with Tom Rice, American Journal of Political Science, August, 1983. "Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote," with Tom Rice, Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol.46, Winter, 1982, pp.534-537. "Economic Influences on Legislative Elections in Multiparty Systems: France and Italy," with Paolo Bellucci, Political Behavior, Vol.4, No.1, June, 1982, pp.93-107. "Can We Assess the Effects of Revolution? A Third Look at the Cuban Evidence," American Journal of Sociology, March, 1981, pp.1130-1133. "The Electoral Politics of the French Peasantry: 1946-1978," Political Studies, Vol.29, No.4, December, 1981, pp.517-536. "Can Government Regulate Safety? The Coal Mine Example," with John R. Alford, American Political Science Review, Vol. 74, No.3, September, 1980, pp.745-756. "Economic Conditions and Executive Popularity: The French Experience," American Journal of Political Science, Vol.24, No.2, May, 1980, pp.306-323. "Some Economic Effects of Revolution: Models, Measurement, and the Cuban Evidence," American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 84, No.5, March, 1979, pp.1127-1149. "Maintaining Economic Competition: The Causes and Consequences of Antitrust," Journal of Politics, Vol.41, No.1, February, 1979, pp.169-191.

21

21

Communication (on “Use of Effects Coefficients”), American Political Science Review, Vol.72, No.2, June, 1978, pp.629-630. "Stepwise Regression: A Caution," Political Methodology, Vol.5, No.2, 1978, p.213-240. "Explaining Peasant Conservatism: The Western European Case," British Journal of Political Science, Vol.7, October, 1977, pp.447-464. "Agrarian Political Behavior in the United States," American Journal of Political Science, Vol.21, No.3, August, 1977, pp.543-566. "The Relative Importance of Socioeconomic and Political Variables for Public Policy," American Political Science Review, Vol. 71, No.2, June, 1977, pp.559-566. "Influence Inequality and Organizational Innovation in a Third World Nation: An Additive-Nonadditive Model," American Journal of Political Science, Vol.21, No.1, February, 1977, pp.1-12. "Evaluating Effects of Independent Variables," with Lawrence B. Mohr, Political Methodology, Vol.3, No.1, 1976, pp.27-47. "Determining the Importance of an Independent Variable: A Path Analytic Solution," Social Science Research, Vol.3, June, 1974, pp.95-107. CHAPTERS:

“Economic Voting,” with Mary Stegmaier, Oxford Handbook of Public Choice, Volume I, Roger Congleton, Bernard Grofman and Stefan Voight (eds.),forthcoming, 2018.

“Economic-Based Voting Blocs,” with Mary Stegmaier and Samuel C. Dicke, The SAGE Encyclopedia of Political Behavior, editor, Fathali M. Moghaddam 2017, forthcoming. “Economic Judgement,” with Mary Stegmaier, The SAGE Encyclopedia of Political Behavior, editor, Fathali M. Moghaddam 2017, forthcoming. “ The Economy and the Vote in Irish National Elections,” with Kevin M. Leyden. In A Conservative Revolution? Electoral Change in 21st Century Ireland, editors, Michael

22

22

Marsh, David M. Farrell, and Gail McElroy, Oxford University Press, 2017, pp.28-41. “Introduction,” with Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans, The Sage Handbook of Electoral Behavior, editors, Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans and Michael S. Lewis-Beck, pp.1-6, 2017. “The Economic Vote: Ordinary Vs. Extraordinary Times,” with Marina Costa Lobo,in The Sage Handbook of Electoral Behavior, editors, Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans and Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Sage Publications, Chapter 25, pp. 584-607, 2017. “ VP-Functions: A Review,” with Mary Stegmaier and Beomseob Park, in The Sage Handbook of Electoral Behavior, editors, Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans and Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Sage Publications, Chapter 26, pp. 608- 630, 2017. “Election Forecasting: The Long-View,” with Charles Tien. In Oxford Handbooks Online, editor, David Pervin, Oxford University Press, 2016, pp.1-18. Retrieved March 15, 2016. DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199935307.013.92. “Explaining French Elections: The Need to Meet in the Middle,” with Richard Nadeau. In The Oxford Handbook of French Politics, edited by Robert Elgie, Emiiano Grossman, and Amy Mazur, 2016, pp.349-372. “Economic Evaluations and Electoral Consequences,” with Mary Stegmaier. In International Encyclopedia of Social and Behaviorial Sciences, James D. Wright (Editor-in-Chief) Second Edition, Vol.7, Oxford: Elsevier, 2015, pp.26-32. “Economic Voting,” with Mary Stegmaier. In Oxford Bibliographies in Political Science, online, Ed. Rick Valelly. New York: Oxford University Press, 2013. “Es la Economía y es la Austerida Estúpido: Las consecuencias electorales de las políticas de recesión en las elecciones 2011,” with Marta Fraile, Chapter 7 in Las Elecciones Generales de 2011, Eva Anduiza, Agustí Bosch, Lluís Orriolos, Guillem Rico, editors, 2014, Madrid. “Between Leadership and Charisma, the Importance of Leaders,” with Richard Nadeau, in Personality Politics? The Role of Leader Evaluations in Democratic Elections, Marina Costa Lobo and John Curtice, eds., Oxford University Press, 2014, pp.169-190.

23

23

“Election Forecasting, Scientific Approaches,” with Mary Stegmaier, in the Encyclopedia of Social Network Analysis and Mining, ed. David Knoke, co-editors Reda Alhajj and Jon Rokne, Springer, Vol. I, pp.462-469,2014. “Election Forecasting,” with Charles Tien, in The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting, eds., Michael Clements and David Hendry, chapter 24, 2011, pp.655-671. “Double Ballot Effects: American Experiments,” with Jill Wittrock, in B. Grofman, B. Dolez, and A. Laurent, editors, In Situ and Laboratory Experiments on Electoral Law Reform: French Presidential Elections, Springer, 2010. “Fonctions de Vote et Prévision des Élections: L’Interaction entre Politique et Économie” Avant-Propos in Analyse Économique des Elections, Bruno Jérôme and Véronique Jérôme-Speziari, Economica: Paris, 2010, pp.XI-XII. “Forty Years of Publishing in Quantitative Methodology,” in The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology, eds., Janet Box-Steffensmeier, Henry Brady and David Collier, 2008, pp.814-827. “Economic Models of Voting,” with Mary Stegmaier, in The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, eds., Russell Dalton and Hans-Dieter Klingemann, 2007,pp.518-537. "Regression Models," in Encyclopedia of Statistics in Behavioral Science, eds., Brian S. Everitt and David E. Howell, Wiley, 2005, pp.1729-1731. “Dual Governance and the Economic Vote: France and the United States," with Richard Nadeau, in The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections, editor, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Palgrave Macmillian, 2004, pp.136-154. "National Economic Voting in France: Objective versus Subjective Measures," with Eric Bélanger, in The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections, editor, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Palgrave Macmillian, 2004, pp.231-242. "French Election Theories and the 2002 Results:An Introduction," in The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections, editor, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Palgrave Macmillian,2004, pp.1-11. "Civic Life and Political Participation in the Midwest," with Andrew Bargen, in The American Midwest: An Interpretive

24

24

Encyclopedia, editors, Richard Sisson, Christian Zacher, and Andrew Cayton, Indiana University Press, 2006. "Regression," in The Sage Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods, Vol.3, editor, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, with Alan Bryman and Tim Futing Liao, Sage, 2004, pp.935-938. "R-squared," in The Sage Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods, Vol.3, editor, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, with Alan Bryman and Tim Futing Liao, Sage, 2004, pp.983-984. "Degrees of Freedom," in The Sage Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods, Vol.1, editor, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, with Alan Bryman and Tim Futing Liao, Sage,2004, pp.243-244. "Causal Modeling," with Tim Futing Liao,in The Sage Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods, Vol.1, editor, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, with Alan Bryman and Tim Futing Liao, Sage, 2004, pp.101-102. "Évaluation économique et vote en France et en Allemagne," with Bruno Jérôme and Véronique Jérôme-Speziari, in L’Opinion Européenne:2001, editors, Dominique Reynié and Bruno Cautrès, Presses de Sciences Po, Paris, 2001, pp.101-122. "Visibilité médiatique et appui à la cohabitation," with Richard Nadeau, in Les Effects d'Information En Politique, editor, Jacques Gerstle, Les éditions L'Harmattan, Paris, 2001. "Modèles économétriques," in Dictionnaire du vote, Pascal Perrineau, Dominique Reynié, eds., Presses Universitaires de France, Paris, 2001, pp.644-646. "After the 1996 Election," with Charles Tien, in Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections, James Campbell and James Garand, eds., Sage, 2000, pp.98-100. "The Enduring French Voter," in How France Votes, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, ed., Chatham House, 2000, pp.1-13. "Le Vote du 'Porte-Monnaie' en Question," in L'Électeur a Ses Raisons, Daniel Boy and Nonna Mayer, eds., Presses de la Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques, 1997, pp. 239-261.

25

25

"The French Voter: Steadfast or Changing?", in The French Voter Decides, Daniel Boy and Nonna Mayer, eds., University of Michigan Press, 1993, pp.1-13. "France," with Andrew Skalaban, in Electoral Change: Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Fifteen Countries, Mark Franklin, Thomas Mackie, and Henry Valen, eds., Cambridge University Press, 1992, pp.167-178. "Y a-t-il un groupe girondin à la Convention nationale (1792-1793)?", with Anne Hildreth and Alan B. Spitzer, in La Gironde et les Girondins, François Furet et Mona Ozouf, eds., Editions Payot, Paris, 1991, pp.169-188. "Interrupted Time Series," in New Tools for Social Scientists: Advances and Applications in Research Methods, William D. Berry and Michael S. Lewis-Beck, eds., Sage, 1986, pp.209-240. "Economics and Electoral Behavior in France," in Political Economy in Western Democracies, Norman Vig and Stephen Schier, eds., Holmes and Meier, 1985, pp.284-303. "Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes in Trans-National Perspective," with Heinz Eulau, in Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes: The United States and Western Europe, Heinz Eulau and Michael S. Lewis-Beck, eds., Agathon Press, 1985, pp.1-14. "France: The Stalled Electorate," in Electoral Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies, Russell J. Dalton, Scott C. Flanagan, and Paul Allen Beck, eds., Princeton University Press, 1984, pp.425-448. BLOG POSTINGS, ITEMS:

"How did the UK election forecasts do?"with Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier, Monkey Cage, June 12, 2017. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/12/how-did-the-u-k-election-forecasts-do/?utm_term=.31c8ac0ff3d5

"New British Election Forecast: Conservatives Gain 31 Seats and have 77% chance of a Controlling Majority," with Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier, Monkey Cage, June 12, 2017.

26

26

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/06/can-people-rather-than-pollsters-accurately-predict-thursdays-u-k-election/?utm_term=.fc2c4a99f628 “Evaluating the Long-View Forecasting Models of the 2016 Election,” with Charles Tien. Oxford University blog, January 11 2017. http://blog.oup.com/2017/01/forecasting-models-2016-election/ “In forecasting the 2016 election results, modelers had a good year, Pollsters did not,” with Charles Tien. LSE/US Centre Blog, December 15, 2016, : http://bit.ly/2gOnLLf .

“Using Citizen Forecasts We Predict that with 362 Electoral Votes, Hillary Clinton will be the Next President.” LSE USAPP Blog. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2016/11/03/using-citizen-forecasts-we-predict-that-with-362-electoral-votes-hillary-clinton-will-be-the-next-president/ November 3, 2016 (with Andreas Murr and Mary Stegmaier)

“Michael S. Lewis-Beck—Presidential Power and US Electoral Forecasting,” Presidential Power blog, 2 November 2016, http://presidential-power.com/?p=5541'. “Political Economy Model: President and House,” with Charles Tien,in The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections, Part 2, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, August 18, 2016. “Applied Regression: An Introduction, Second Edition,” with Colin Lewis-Beck, posted on The Plot, July 7, 2015.” http://www.the-plot.org/2015/07/07/applied-regression-an-introduction-second-edition/ “The Swedish Government is Set to Lose the 2014 General Elections despite the Country’s Economic Performance,” Anders Sundell, August 14, 2014, http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/08/14/the-swedish-government-is-set-to-lose-the-2014-general-election-despite-the-countrys-economic-performance/ “Forecasting the 2014 Parliamentry Elections in Sweden,” with Anders Sundell, June 13, 2014,http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2450229 http://blogg.dn.se/sundellssiffror/2014/06/14/vad-ekonomin-sager-om-valresultatet/

27

27

“To Improve Their Predictions, Election Forecasters Should Look to Other Disciplines Like Meteorlogy. LSE USAPP Blog:http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2014/04/17/to-improve-their-predictions-election-forecasters-should-look-to-other-disciplines-like-meteorology/ April 17, 2014, with Mary Stegmaier. Mary Stegmaier, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Kaat Smets, “Minority Candidates for Westminister Continue to Suffer Electorally from Ethnic and Religious Prejudice,” in Democratic Audit UK, 02/01/2014http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=1984 Sylvia Kritzinger, Eva Zeglovitz, Michael Lewis-Beck, Richard Nadeau, “2013 Austrian Parliamentary Elections: Pre-Election Report,” September 30, 2013, The Monkey Cage, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/09/30/the-2013-austrian-elections-standing-still-despite-change/ Sylvia Kritzinger, Eva Zeglovitz, Michael Lewis-Beck, Richard Nadeau, “2013 Austrian Parliamentary Elections: Pre-Election Report,” September 19, 2013, The Monkey Cage, http://themonkeycage.org/2013/09/19/2013-austrian-parliamentary-elections-pre-election-report/ Dassonneville, R. and Lewis-Beck, M.S. (2013) Left-wing parties in Western Europe gain votes when unemployment rises, but only when they are in opposition. LSE EUROPP. 5 September. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/09/05/left-wing-parties-in-western-e Charles Tien, Richard Nadeau, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck. “Racial Voting in 2012?” Model Politics, May 2, 2012. http://today.yougov.com/news/categories/model-politics/ “Sarkozy’s Image,” with Thomas Didier, Richard Nadeau. EUROPP – European Politics and Policy Blog, LSE Public Policy Group (http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/ “’Nowcasting’ the 2012 US Presidential Elections,” with Charles Tien, The Monkey Cage (http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2011/12/15/13232/), December 15, 2011 (Campaign and Elections section, Joshua Tucker). “Actually, Iowa is Extremely Representative in Terms of the Economy,’ The Monkey Cage, (http://bit.ly/rXwdrn) December 19, 2011 (Campaign and Elections section, Joshua Tucker). RECENT MEDIA COMMENTARY:

28

28

Guest, “What the Democrats Need to Do,” Lulu Garcia-Navvaro host, Weekend Edition Sunday, NPR, July 2, 2017. Guest, “What is the Strategy to Counter Trump?,” Background Briefing, Ian Master, host, FD media, ian.master at com, July 3, 2017. POETRY, LYRICS, FICTION, ESSAYS, CONTRIBUTIONS: “ In Short Order,” poem, in The Inherent Communal Nature of Language, a chapbook edited by Chard deNiord, 2018, forthcoming. “The Hunt,” poem, Alexandria Quarterly, Vol.4, Fall Issue (November), 2017. “Firecracker Road,” poem, Alexandria Quarterly, Vol.4, Fall Issue (November), 2017. “The Secret Ingredient,” flash fiction, The Apalachee Review, Vol. 67, 2017, p.39. “Warrior Buffalo,” poem, Rootstalk, Vol. IV, Issue 1, Fall, 2017. “Dead Courthouse Museums,” poem, Fall Issue, Rootstalk, 2017, forthcoming. “June’s Coming,” poem, Fall Issue, Rootstalk, 2017, forthcoming. “Spring Salad,” poem, Rootstalk, Vol. IV, Issue 1, Fall, 2017. “Working Breakfast,” poem, The Bridge, Montpelier, Vermont, August 18, 2017. “Vacation Bible School,” poem, Jay County Journal, Vol.15, Issue No.7, 2017, p.3. “A Paper Boy,” poem, Jay County Journal, Vol.15, Issue 6, June 2017,p.4. “Pique-Nique in Nantes,” poem,in Taos Journal of International Poetry and Art, Issue 9,2017.

29

29

“Bad Breakfast at the Bowl,” poem, in Taos Journal of International Poetry and Art, Issue 9, 2017. “Bitter Mornings, Rye Nights,” lyrics for CD of songs, with Evelyn Poem (vocalist and music), 2016, forthcoming. “For Budbill,” poem, Stowe Reporter, November 3, 2016. “Robin in Winter,” poem, Apalachee Review, Issue # 66 (August), 2016, p.38. “Breakfast of a Champion,” poem, Iowa City Press-Citizen, September 7, 2016. “Mole Hole,” poem, Alexandria Quarterly, Summer Issue, 2016 (August); hardcopy, Alexandria Quarterly, Vol.3, 2017, p.81. The Nowhere Man (by Marlon L. Fick, Jaded Ibis Press), book review, Quarterly Conversation, Summer Issue (June), 2016, forthcoming. Wry Encounters, poetry book manuscript, Finalist, The 42 Miles Press Poetry Award, 2016. “Guatemalan Avocado,” poem, Pilgrimage, Vol.39, Issue 3, p.33, 2016. “Last Supper,” poem, The Cortland Review, Vol. 70, 2016. “The Lute Shop,” poem, The Cortland Review, Vol. 70, 2016. “Saint Erasmus was Tortured,” poem, Seminary Ridge Review, Spring 18:2, 2016, p.108. “Oaxaca Now,” poem, in On Broken Stones, Truchas Poets, Fall, 2015, chapbook, Tupelo Press, p.10. “Breakfast at the Hotel Regina,” poem, Poetry Quarterly, Winter Issue (No.14), 2015,p.125. “Notta Lotta Love in Aracavacata,” song lyrics, for the Italian band, Magnitudo-4, Fall 2015. “from Mike Lewis-Beck,” comment in End Table, Chariton Review, Vol.38, No.1, Spring 2015, p.93. “At the Strawberry Festival,” poem, Fox Cry Review, Vol.41, 2015, p.8.

30

30

“Delivery in Göteborg,” short story (2015 Finalist Prize), Chariton Review, Vol. 38, issue 1 (Spring,) 2015, pp.11-15. “Cherry Meatballs with Egg Noodles and Endive & Walnut Salad,” recipes, with Sara T. Sauers, in Hungary Bibliophiles: An Experiment in Utilitarian Bookmaking, by Russell Maret, 2015, pp.36-37. “Delight,” poem, Chariton Review, Vol. 37, issue 2, fall 2014, p.109. “Folks Wake Up and Bus to Work,” poem, Chariton Review, Vol. 37, issue 2, fall 2014, p. 110. “Le Donne Felice,” poem, Chariton Review, Vol. 37, issue 2, fall 2014, p.113. “Mozart’s Black Bird,” poem, Chariton Review, Vol. 37, issue 2,fall 2014, p. 111. “Somewhere in Surinam,” poem, Chariton Review, Vol. 37, issue 2, fall 2014, p.114. “Winter Records,” poem, Chariton Review, Vol. 37, issue 2, fall 2014, p.112. My Family and Other Hazards (by June Melby, Henry Holt publisher), book review, Iowa Review, Vol.44/2, Fall 2014,pp.1-4. http://iowareview.org/blog/june-melbys-my-family-and-other-hazards. “From the Members,” Autumn Meditations, essay, Heritage Magazine, January 2015, p.3. “Venus Descending,” short story, Wapsipinicon Almanac, No.21, 2014, pp.76-80. “You and my Gumbo,” song lyrics, sung and recorded by Evelyn Pope, vocalist in the group, Atlas of Birds, Boston, August, 2014. “A Drink or A Dame,” song lyrics, sung and recorded by Evelyn Pope, vocalist in the group, Atlas of Birds, Boston, February, 2014. “Cold Coffee,” song lyrics(recorded by Evelyn Pope, of Pony for My Birthday, Boston, December 2013.). “Artichoke Land,” poem, Arctic Owl Press, broadside, 2013.

31

31

“Whatever I am You Are,” poem, Open Window Review, Jackson Hole Writers Conference Special Issue, August, 2013, pp.68-69. “Biker Chick,” poem, The Cortland Review, Issue No.59, 2013. “Naming Ucelli,” poem, The Chariton Review, Vol.35, issue 2, Fall 2012,p.85. “Osage Oranges,” poem, Farming Magazine, Vol. 12, Issue 3, No. 47, Fall 2012, p.53. “Love Enough,” poem, Poetry Quarterly, winter/summer 2012, p.141. Mississippi Photographs,” poem, Ann Arbor Review, Issue No. 11, Winter 2012-2013. “The Old Masters,” poem, Ann Arbor Review, AAR11, Winter 2012-2013. “Sometimes There’s a Burger,” poem, Poetic License, Iowa City Press-Citizen, June 15, 2012, p.6A. “Voice of Water,” poem, Iowa City Poetry in Public, April, 2012. “Make Sure to Think Twice about Co-op Relocation,” essay, Iowa City Press-Citizen, March 22, 2012, p.7A. “Bianco,” poem, Wild Violet Magazine 10th Anniversary Book, 2011, forthcoming. “Before the June Flood,” poem, Poetic License, Iowa City Press-Citizen, January 8, 2012, p.8A. “Sometimes There’s A Burger,” poem, reprinted in The Burg: A Writer’s Diner, Marybeth Slonneger, 2011. “March Window,” poem, Poetry Quarterly, Fall 2011, p.11. “Iowa is a Natural for its ‘First in the Nation’ Role,” essay, Iowa City Press-Citizen, December 16, 2011, p.9A. “Fulminate of Mercury,” occasional poem, Mailart for CD release of Pieta Brown’s Mercury, sponsored by r.s.v.p., Iowa City, November, 2011.

32

32

“Go Van Gogh,” poem, Orbis, No.156, Summer 2011,p.69. “Home Gnomes,” poem, Orbis, No.156, Summer 2011,p.68. “My Pavoratti,” poem, The New Writer, Summer No.10, 2011,P.64. “Cherry Picking,” poem, Wild Violet Magazine, Volume X, Issue 1, Fall 2011. “Chicken with Its Head Cut Off,” poem, 2011 Iowa Summer Writing Festival Anthology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa. “New Year’s Solution,” poem, Poetic License, Iowa City Press-Citizen, January 12,2011, p.8A. Death Walks the Riviera, novel, Catstep Press, 2010. “German Hotel Breakfast,” poem, Blood Lotus Journal, Issue No.18, November 2010. “Descartes Duals Buddha,” poem, Pennine Ink Magazine, Issue No. 32, January, 2011. “My Cherry Orchard in Iowa,” essay, Wapsipinicon Almanac, No.17, 2010, pp.137-144. “My Finland,” essay, The 2010 Iowa Summer Writing Festival Anthology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa. “A Moon Song,” poem, Stepping Stones Magazine, August 8, 2010. “November,” poem, Stepping Stones Magazine, August 8, 2010. “Finding Lorca,” poem, Atlantic Pacific Press, Autumn 2010, Vol.3, No.3, pp. 56-60. “If,” poem, Atlantic Pacific Press, Autumn 2010, Vol.3, No.3, pp.50-51. “Accomplishments Jan 17 in Paris,” poem, Atlantic Pacific Press, Autumn 2010, Vol.3, No.3, pp. 54-55. “Dawn Hotel Bill,” poem, Atlantic Pacific Press, Autumn 2010, Vol.3, No.3, p. 52.

33

33

“Boxing Glove Tomato,” poem, Atlantic Pacific Press, Autumn 2010, Vol.3, No.3, p. 53. “Wailing Bridge of Lisbon,” poem, The Penwood Review, Spring 2010, Vol. 14, No.1, p.41. “Mexican Wedding Cake,” poem, The 2009 Iowa Summer Writing Festival Anthology, May, 2010, University of Iowa, Iowa City. “Siena Sunday,” poem, The Wild Goose Poetry Review, Vol.4, Issue 4, Winter 2009. “Night Water,” poem, Poet’s Ink Review, December, 2009. “Snow Walk,” poem, Poet’s Ink Review, December, 2009. “Place Von Furstenberg and Musée Delacroix,” poem, Waterways, Issue No.6, 2010. “Leaves,” poem, Poet’s Ink Review, October, 2009. “Mojito Nights,” song lyrics(recorded by Evelyn Pope, of Pony for My Birthday, Boston, September 2009). “Lavender Flowers,” poem, Poet’s Ink Review, July, 2009. “Smell of Tar,” poem, Poet’s Ink Review, July, 2009. “Winter Woods,” poem, Albatross, No.20,Spring, 2009. “Old Man on the Train,” poem, Lyrical Iowa 2008. “Snow Fall,” poem, Daily Pallette, Iowa City, July 17, 2008. “Digging Potatoes,” poem, broadside, Bun Fight Press, 2007. “Morning Daffodils,” poem, Iowa City Poetry in Public Project, 2006. EDITORIAL ACTIVITIES: Associate Editor, International Journal of Forecasting, 2006 – present. Associate Editor, French Politics, 2014 – present. Data Editor, French Politics, 2001 – present.

34

34

Editorial Board, American Journal of Political Science, 2014 – present. Editorial Board, Polity, 2016 – present. Editorial Board, Italian Review of Political Science, 2013-present. Editorial Board, Revista Española ce Ciencia Política (Spanish Political Science Review), Madrid, 2013 – present. Editorial Board, Political Science Research and Methods, 2012 – present. Editorial Board, Politics, Groups, and Identities, 2011 – present. Editorial Board, Canadian Journal of Political Science, July 2010 – present. Editorial Board, Electoral Studies, 2009 – present. Editorial Board, Sage Research Methods Online (SRMO), 2010 – present. Advisory Board, Journal of Spurious Correlations: Qualitative and Quantitative Research in the Social Sciences, 2006 – present. Editorial Board, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties, 2009 – 2016. Editorial Board, Political Research Quarterly, 2006 – present. Advisory Board, Political Behavior, 2007 – 2011. Advisory Board, Political Behavior: Voting and Public Opinion e-Journal, 2013 – present. Section Editor, Political Science Network (e-journal), 2007 – 2011. Editorial Board, American Politics Research, 2001 – 2007. Associate Editor, Forecasting Letters, 2006 – 2007. Editor, Sage Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods, 2000 – 2004.

35

35

Editor, Sage Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences Series (Green Monographs), 1988 - 2003. Editor, American Journal of Political Science, 1991-1993. Editor, Sage International Handbooks, 1993-1994. Editorial Board, Journal of Politics, 1998-2001. Editorial Board, American Politics Quarterly, 1997- 2000. Editorial Board, SRM-Database, The Netherlands,1996 - 2003. Editorial Board, Journal of Politics, 1985-1992. Editorial Board, Political Analysis, 1988 - 1991. Editorial Board, American Journal of Political Science, 1980-1985, 1988-1990. Editoral Board, American Politics Quarterly, 1982-1987. Editorial Board, Sage Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences Series, 1983- 1988. Editorial Board, Political Behavior, 1984-1989. SELECTED OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES: Nominator, 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. Academic Advisory Panel, Boussole.France 24, Vote Compass, Vox Pop Labs, 2017 – present.

Expert Panel Member, Research Foundation Flanders (FWO), Brussels, 2017- present.

Scientific Advisory Board Member, ERC Consolidator Grant, MAPLE, "Mapping and Analysing the Politicisation of the EU before and after the Eurozone Crisis," Principal Investigator: Marina Costa Lobo, 2016-2021.

Chair, APSA Committee on the Future of PS: Political Science and Politics, 2013-2014.

36

36

Committee Member, Reference Committee, Vivavoice (French political opinion research), Paris, 2012 – present. Consultative Council, Project on Leaders and Democratic Elections, Ministry of Science and Technology, Lisbon, Portugal, 2011-2013. Research Advisor, Project on Stability and Change in Political Attitudes, The Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology, 2010-2013. Advisory Board, Danish Election Study, 2010-2011. Member, Charles E. Merriam Award Committee, American Political Science Association, 2011. Associate Member, Center for the Study of Democratic Citizenship, Fonds Québéçois de Recherche sur la Société et la Culture, Montreal, Canada, 2010 -. Chair, Warren E. Miller Prize Committee, Elections, Public Opinion and Voting Behavior Section, APSA, 2009-2010. Advisory Board, British Election Study, 2009-2013. Consultant, 2012 American National Election Study Proposal. Member, Award Committee on Best Paper in the American Journal of Political Science, 2009-2010. Chair, Political Forecasting Group, American Political Science Association, 2007-2009. Board of Advisors, Bowen Center for Public Affairs, Ball State University, 2007 - 2010. Invited Session Organizer, US Presidential Election Forecasting, The 27th International Symposium on Forecasting, New York City, June, 2007. Member, Selection Committee, Best Article in Political Research Quarterly for 2006. External Reviewer, Department of Political Science, Louisiana State University, February, 2006. Advisory Board Member, 2005 British Election Study. Chair, Selection Committee, Sage Award for best APSA paper in Comparative Politics in 2003.

37

37

Chair, Selection Committee, Heinz Eulau Award for best APSR article in 2002. Chair, Selection Committee, Emerging Scholar for the Elections,Public Opinion,and Voting Section of APSA, 2003. Panelist, Academic Selection Committee, The Camargo Foundation, 2003-2008. Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences (SBE) Infrastructure Panel, National Science Foundation, December, 2000. External Reviewer, Department of Political Science, Arizona State University, May, 1997. Member, 1995 French National Election Study Group. Committee of Visitors, Outside Review of the National Science Foundation Political Science Program, September, 1994. Executive Council, Midwest Political Science Association, 1989-1990. Political Science Advisory Panel, National Science Foundation, 1985-1987. Program Section Head, Political Economy, Midwest Political Science Association Meeting, Chicago, 1985. Program Section Head, Empirical Theory and Research Methods, American Political Science Association Meeting, New Orleans, 1985. SELECTED ADMINISTRATIVE EXPERIENCES: Director of Graduate Studies, Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, August 2007 – June 2008. Board of Directors, Social Science Research Center, University of Iowa, June 2006 – January 2011. Chair, Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, July, 2003 – May, 2006.

38

38

Member, Executive Committee, Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, August, 2002 – June, 2003. Ombud, Department of Political Science, 1997 - 1998, 2000. Head, Senior American Politics Search Committee, Department of Political Science, 1996-1997. Member, Executive Committee, Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, May, 1986 - January, 1987. Director of Ph.D. Recruitment, Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, August, 1982-1985. Director of Graduate Studies, Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, August, 1979-August, 1982. POSITIONS: Professor Emeritus (maintains office), Political Science Department, University of Iowa, August 2010 to present. Professor, Political Science Department, University of Iowa, August, 1982-July, 2001; January, 2002 – July, 2010. Visiting Professor, Department of Government, Harvard University, Fall Semester, 2001-2002. Associate Professor, Political Science Department, University of Iowa, August 1978 - August 1982. Assistant Professor, Political Science Department, University of Iowa, August 1974- August 1978. Lecturer, Political Science Department, University of Michigan, Spring Semester, 1974. OTHER POSITIONS, GUEST LECTURES, VISITING APPOINTMENTS: Keynote Address, “Growth, Inequality, Crisis: A Changing Economic Vote?” with Ruth Dassonneville, The MAPLE conference, Social Sciences Institute, University of Lisbon, December 4,2017. Visiting Professor, Keynote Address, “Patrimony and Political Behavior Across 12 Industrial Countries,”

39

39

Political Science Roundtable, GESIS-Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, Mannheim, November, 2017. Invited Professor, Keynote Address, “Prosperity v. Policy: The Two Faces of the Economic Vote,” Department of Political Science, Université de Laval, Quebec City, Canada, October 2017. Invited Presenter, “Duverger Revisité: Regards Critiques Sur L’Oeuvre Scientifique,” Colloque International, Université de Bordeaux, France, June 2017. Faculty, Third Leuven Winter School on Elections, KU Leuven, Belgium, February – March, 2017. Visiting Professor, Departments of Political Science, University of Copenhagen, Aarhus University, Denmark, November – December, 2016. Keynote Speaker, “The US Election Losers: People and the Polls?” conference, Political Behavior and Voting, Centre for Voting and Parties, Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, November 27, 2016. Guest Speaker, “The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election: Reflections from a Forecaster,” Seminar Series, School of Politics and International Relations, University College Dublin, Ireland, November 17, 2016. Speaker, Video Conference, “ Forecasting the 2016 US Presidential Election,” Department of Political Science, University of Montréal (Canada) and Department of Political Science, University of Leuven (Belgium), November 8, 2016. Speaker, Round Table, Speaker,“Trump or Hillary? Forecasting the 2016 U.S. Election,” Munk School of Global Affairs, Centre for the Study of the United States, Department of Political Science, University of Toronto, Canada, September 27, 2016. Visiting Scholar, Department of Political Science, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, January – May, 2016. Visiting Scholar, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, March, 2016. Keynote Lecture, “Electoral Rules and the Economic Vote: Main v. Conditional Effects,” Comparative Perspectives on Electoral Behaviour: The Impact of the Electoral and Party System, Workshop organized by the Centre for Citizenship and

40

40

Democracy, University of Leuven, held at the Academica Belgica, Rome, Italy, 16-18 September 2015. Invited Blalock Lecturer (with Colin Lewis-Beck), Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR), University of Michigan, July 30, 2015, “Regression Questions You Always Wanted to Ask.” Keynote Speaker, “The Economic Vote: How Strong is It? How Stable?” The Belgian Political Science Associations, Brussels, May 19, 2015. Co-Convenor, “Forecasting the 2015 British General Election,” conference, New Theatre, London School of Economics, Friday 27th March 2015 Keynote Speaker, Voting and Political Behavior Seminar, Centre for Voting and Parties (CVAP), Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, March 25, 2015. Invited Professor, Leuven-Montréal Winter School on Elections and Electoral Behavior, January, 2015. Visiting Professor, Department of Political Science, LUISS University, Rome, Italy, November, 2014. International Workshop Participant, “Forecasting Elections in Europe: Synthetic Models,” Department of Political Science, University of Perugia, Italy, November 19, 2014. Keynote Speaker,” Economics and Elections in Latin America,” Department of Political Science, University of Siena, Italy, November 18, 2014. Keynote Speaker, “Macroeconomics, Economic Crisis and Electoral Outcomes: A National European Pool,” SPS Seminar, University of Milan, Italy, November 11, 2014. Lead Speaker, “Forecasting Elections in Europe: Synthetic Models,” ITANES (Italian National Election Studies)seminar, Istituto Carlo Cattaneo, University of Bologna, Italy, November 10, 2014. Symposium Participant, “The Midterm Forecasts Are In: The Science of Election Forecasting Part 2,” American Political Science Association, briefing on Capitol Hill, Washingtion, DC, October 22, 2014.

41

41

Keynote Speaker, “Forecasting Elections in Europe: Synthetic Models,” Conference, Election Studies: Reviewing the Bundestagswahl 2013, Center for Advanced Studies, Ludwig-Maximilans-Universität Munich, Germany, June 26-27, 2014. Keynote Speaker, “Macroeconomics, Economic Crisis, and Electoral Outcomes,” the 13th Belgian-Dutch Political Science Conference, Maastricht, The Netherlands, June 12, 2014. Visiting Scholar, Department of Political Science, University of Göteborg, Sweden, April-May 2014. Co-Host, Congressional Briefing,”And the Winner Will Be…Election Forecasting: What It Is, What It Does, How It’s Different,” sponsored by APSA and PS: Political Science and Politics, Washington, DC, May 28, 2014. Invited Speaker, Department of Political Science, Iowa State University, “Economics and Elections in Latin America,” November 19, 2013. Visiting Professor, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Spain, October, 2013. Speaker, Permanent Seminar Series, Juan March Institute of Social Sciences, Carlos III University, Madrid, October, 2013. Visiting Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Dublin, Trinity College, October, 2013. Visiting Researcher, Department of Political Science, National University of Ireland, Galway, October, 2013. Co-Organizer and Presenter, Roundtable, “Presidential Election Forecasting: Frontiers and Controversies,” Blalock Lecture Series, Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, August 7, 2013. Invited Speaker, Simposio: Economía,Elecciones y Comportamiento Electoral en América Latina, Instituto Nacional de la Administración Pública (INAP), Buenos Aires, Argentina, April, 2013. Visiting Scholar, Centennial Center, American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., March-April, 2013.

42

42

Visiting Professor, Center for Citizenship and Democracy, Political Science Department, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Belgium, November, 2012. “What to Expect in the Presidential Election,” invited talk, Rackham Centennial Alumni Lectures, Department of Political Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, October 18, 2012. “Obama or Romney? What Factors Predict the Presidential Election?,” National Press Club, Washington, DC, hosted by the American Political Science Association, October 16, 2012. Visiting Professor, Summer Methods Institute (AREMSIS), Koc University, Istanbul, Turkey, July 2012. “Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election,” Blalock Lecture on Advanced Topics in Social Research, ICPSR, University of Michigan, July, 2012. Paul Lazarsfeld Professor of Political Science, University of Vienna, April-May 2012. Public Lecture, “Can the Economy Anticipate Election Outcomes?,” Epstein Palace, Parliament, Republic of Austria, April 18, 2012. Visiting Senior Scholar, Political Science Department, University of Aarhus, Denmark, November, 2011. Visiting Scholar, Political Science Department, University of Missouri, October, 2011 and March 2012. Featured Speaker, “The Future in Election Forecasting,” International Forecasting Society meetings, Prague, Czech Republic, June 28, 2011. Keynote Address, ‘UK-Obama’?: Assessing the Electoral Prospects for Ethnic Minority Candidates to Achieve National Executive Office in Britain, conference organized by the University of Manchester and the Hansard Society, London, May, 2011. Cavour Lecture, Carlo Alberto Foundation, Torino, Italy, May, 2011. Visiting Professor, Political Science Department, University of Siena, Italy, March – June 2011.

43

43

Scholar in Residence, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Torino, Italy, January-February, 2011. Visiting Researcher, Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal, November, 2010. Visiting Faculty, European Consortium for Political Research Summer School in Methodology, Ljubljana, Slovenia, August, 2010. Visiting Researcher/Professor, Ciencia Política, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain, May, 2010. Hallsworth Visiting Professor, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, England, November 2009, March 2010. “Obama: A Missed Landslide?,” Blalock Lecture on Advanced Topics in Social Research, ICPSR, Ann Arbor, July 2009. Visiting Researcher/Speaker, Instituto de Politica y Bienes Públicos, Consejo Superior des Investigationes Scientificas, Madrid, Spain, March 2009. Guest Speaker, The American Voter Revisited: Lessons for the 2008 US Presidential Election, CEVIPOF (Paris) and the University of Lille, January 2009. Guest Speaker, “The 2008 US Presidential Election Forecasts,” National Press Club, Washington, D.C., October 2008. Invited Panelist, Ann Arbor Book Festival, Election 2008, May, 2008. Guest Speaker, Pi Sigma Alpha Induction, Department of Political Science, University of Buffalo, April, 2008. Visiting Lecturer, Quebec Inter-university Centre for Social Statistics (QICSS), University of Montreal, March, 2008. Blalock Lecture on Advanced Topics in Social Research, ICPSR, Ann Arbor, July 2007. Visiting Fellow in Politics, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, England, April-June, 2007. Visiting Professor, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Spain, April, 2007.

44

44

Visiting Professor, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Nantes, France. February, 2007. Visiting Professor, Deparment of Political Science, University of Siena, Italy, Fall Semester, 2006. Workshop Leader, lectoral Behavior, University of Pennsylvania, June 2005. Professeur Associé, Université de Paris II (Sorbonne), Economics Faculty, May 2005, March 2007. Invited Speaker, US elections, State Department tour of French Canada, October 16-23,2004. Invited Guest, Florida State University Vision Lecture Series, February, 2003. Visiting Professor, Institut d’Etudes Politiques (Sciences Po), Paris, November 2002 – January 2003. Guest Speaker, Election Forecasting, Department of Political Science, University of North Carolina, fall, 2000. Intervenant, Ecole d'Ete de Lille, Methodes Quantitatives En Sciences Sociales, CRAPS-IEP de Lille, University of Lille, France, Sept. 1999. Visiting Researcher/Lecturer, Dept. of Economics, University of Aarhus, Denmark, February, 1998. Distinguished Lecturer, Center for Applied Statistics and Political Science Department, Central European University, Budapest, October, 1997. Visiting Faculty, TÁRKI Summer School on the Theory and Application of Statistical Models, Budapest, July, 1994. Chercheur Invité, Centre de recherche et développement en économique (CRDE), Université de Montréal, September, 1993. Professeur Associé, Université de Paris I (Sorbonne), Economics Faculty, January 1993, May-June 1995, May-June 1996. Visiting Faculty/Lecturer, Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research, University of Michigan, Summers, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1981, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1993.

45

45

Visiting Faculty, European Consortium for Political Research, University of Essex, England, Summers, 1977, 1978, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, 2000, 2003. Visiting Scholar, Centre d'Étude de la Vie Politique Française Contemporaine, Paris, France, 1977-1978. Visiting Faculty, Social Science Faculty, Catholic University, Lima, Peru, 1971-1972. Lecturer, School of Community Service and Public Affairs, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 1968-1969. Visiting Faculty, National Institute for Development Administration, Guatemala City, Guatemala, 1966-1968. INTERNAL (IOWA) FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDS: F. Wendell Miller Distinguished Professor of Political Science, 1996 - present. Member, Engagement Corps, University of Iowa, Southwestern Iowa Tour, May 20-22, 2009. Shambaugh Conference, Department of Political Science, “Understanding the 2008 Election,” co-organizer with Brian Lai, Caroline Tolbert, and David Redlawsk, March 2009. Shambaugh Conference, Department of Political Science, “The American Voter: Change v. Continuity over the Past Fifty Years,” May, 2008. Flex Leave, Spring Semester, 2007. Roberts Fund, Department of Political Science, Further Experiments on the Effects of the Double Ballot, February, 2007. Development Leave, Fall Semester, 2006. Roberts Fund, Department of Political Science, Experiment on the Effects of the Double Ballot, June, 2006. Development Leave, Fall Semester, 1999. Development Leave, Spring Semester, 1994.

46

46

Bridging Project (Study Group) in International Studies, 1992-1993. Development Leave, Fall Semester, 1988. University House Interdisciplinary Scholar, Summer, 1986. Shambaugh Conference, Department of Political Science, “Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes,” March, 1984. Development Leave, Fall Semester, 1983. Old Gold Fellowship, Summer, 1980. Development Leave, Spring Semester, 1978. EXTERNAL FELLOWSHIPS, AWARDS, RECOGNITIONS: Goggle Scholar, Citations Rankings (February 2018): voting behavior = 2nd; political methodology = 3nd; political behavior = 4rd. Article, “Obama’s Missed Landslide: A Racial Cost?,” with Charles Tien, Richard Nadeau, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.43:1,January 2010,pp.69-76” at upper 1% of Political Science Articles measured by Citations (rank 334 out of 29881 published 2010-2014, see Gregory Patience, (http://www.heliyon.com/article/e00300/). SAGE Cornerstone Author Award, 2015, for publication (with Colin Lewis-Beck) of Applied Regression: An Introducton, Second Edition. Fellowship in Italian Studies, Carlo Alberto Foundation, Turin, Italy, January – June 2011. Fernand Braudel Senior Fellowship, European University Institute, Florence, Italy, Fall, 2011 (declined). 4th Most Cited Political Scientist since 1940 (in the field of methodology, 9th Most Cited over all fields in age cohort), the Political Science 400 (PS: Political Science and Politics, January 2007, pp.135-138). Top-Ten Most Accessed Article (June 2007 – June 2008), Political Research Quarterly, for “Party, Ideology, and Vote Intentions: Dynamics from the 2002 French Electoral Panel,” with Bélanger, Chiche, and Tiberj, Vol.59, December 2006.

47

47

The Frank L. Wilson Best APSA paper Award, French Politics Group, American Political Science Association meetings, 2007. CHOICE 2004 Outstanding Academic Title, for Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods, editor, with Alan Bryman and Tim Futing Liao, 2005. RUSA 2004 Outstanding Reference Source, for Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods, editor, with Alan Bryman and Tim Futing Liao, 2005. Best New Book of the Year 2004, Sage Publications, Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods, editor, with Alan Bryman and Tim Futing Liao, 2005. A Founding Series Editor Award, Sage Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences (Green Monograph) Series, named 2004. Camargo Foundation Fellow, Cassis, France, 1994. Quincy Wright Award, 1989, International Studies Association (Mid-West), for book, Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Camargo Foundation Fellow, Cassis, France, 1988. German Marshall Fund Research Fellow, 1985. National Science Foundation Postdoctoral Fellowship, Paris, France, 1977-1978. Fellowship, Summer Institute in Evaluation Research, University of Massachusetts, 1976. Latin American Teaching Fellowship, Lima, Peru, 1971-1972. National Institute for Mental Health Predoctoral Fellowship, 1971-1973. Ford Foundation Fellowship-Rackham Prize, University of Michigan, 1970-1971. EXTERNAL GRANTS: “Economic Participation: The Economic Dimensions of Electoral Participation,” Research Grant, Canadian Social

48

48

Science Research Council, with François Gélineau and Richard Nadeau, 2016-2019. “Federalism and Economic Voting in Latin America,” Research Grant, Canadian Social Science Research Council, with François Gélineau, Richard Nadeau, and Eric Bélanger, 2009-2010. Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project 2008, Co-Principal Investigator with Caroline Tolbert, 2008. SAS-International Institute of Forecasters Grant, “Improving the Forecasting of Elections in the United Kingdom,” with Eric Bélanger and Richard Nadeau, 2008. University of Aarhus, Denmark, Conference Grant, with Martin Paldam, "Economics and Elections: Comparisons and Conclusions," Sandbjerg Gods, Denmark, August, 1998. National Science Foundation, Research Grant, Political Science Program, "The Franco-American Voter: A Cross-Cultural Model," with the cooperation of Daniel Boy, Jean Chiche, Elisabeth Dupoirier, Gérard Grunberg, Nonna Mayer, and Anne Muxel (CEVIPOF, Paris), 1995-1996. National Science Foundation, International Programs/Accord CNRS-NSF, with Daniel Boy, Jean Chiche, Gérard Grunberg, and Nonna Mayer, "The New Voter: Franco-American Comparisons,"1994-1996. Herbert Hoover Presidential Library Association, Research Grant, with Peverill Squire, 1987-1988. National Science Foundation, Regional Conference Grant, with Helmut Norpoth, "Economics and Elections in the United States and Western Europe," May, 1987. Rockefeller Foundation, grant, with Helmut Norpoth, for above conference, held at their Study and Conference Center, the Villa Serbelloni, Bellagio, Italy, May, 1987. National Science Foundation, Research Grant, "Economic Conditions and Voter Decisions in Western Industrial Democracies," 1983-1984. National Science Foundation, Cooperative Science Exchange, Belgium, Summer, 1982.

49

49

National Science Foundation, Research Grant, Doctoral Dissertation on organizational innovation in Peru, 1971-1972. 281.