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South Sudan Voices from an Emerging Democracy
AAPOR Paper Presentation
May 2012
Methodology Overview • Face to Face Interviewing
• Field Period: November 7 – December 7, 2011
• Target Population: Urban South Sudanese, 18+
• Sampling: 5 key cities in South Sudan, total n=1,050
– Juba (260 interviews)
– Malakal (235 interviews)
– Rumbek (235 interviews)
– Yambio (160 interviews)
– Wau (160 interviews)
• Respondents were selected using a multi-stage random sample, from PSU selection
(random draw selection of sampling points within Bomas throughout each city), to
household selection (random route) and respondent selection (Kish grid).
• Margin of sampling error, assuming a simple random sample with p=0.5, final n=975 and a
95% confidence interval, is +/-3.14.
• These data were weighted using city and gender population estimates from the “5th Sudan
Population & Housing Census – 2008”; these post-stratification weights adjust the
disproportionate sample allocation to match the final sample to the aforementioned
population figures for analysis.
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July 9, 2011 – South Sudan Independence
3
November 7 – December 7, 2011
4
Overview of Findings • Optimism about the future of the country consistently shows throughout the results
• With the field period coming 4 months after independence (July 9, 2011), urban respondents
were likely experiencing a ‘honeymoon period’ with regard to perceptions of their newly
independent government
• The period between independence through the end of 2011 was relatively calm with few
reports of conflict between Sudan and South Sudan
• Attitudes, especially with regard to security and violence, have likely changed over the past
6 months with wide reports of violence, especially in South Kordufan, Unity State, Blue Nile
and Jonglei
• Attitudes toward the United States are consistently positive while attitudes toward other
current economic and security partners, most notably China, remain far more mixed
• Hydrocarbon policy, at the center of much of the violence, remains a difficult issue; most
respondents prefer a solution favoring autonomy even though that solution is estimated to
be at least 15 years out and no progress has been made toward that goal to date
• Research in post-conflict zones is challenging; challenges will be discussed at the end
5
General Satisfaction
6
• Results are likely an effect of a “honeymoon period” after independence
• Uncertainty is also high with 1/3 giving a neutral or non-response
• Optimism about the future is very high among urban South Sudanese
45%
21%
23%
11%
Chart 1.1: 'Do you think that things in our country are generally headed in the right direction or are things headed in the wrong
direction?'
Right direction
Neither Right nor Wrong
Wrong direction
DK / Ref
General Satisfaction
7
• Education (31%), inflation (27%) and health care (26%) follow closely behind
• Notably, HIV/AIDS (11%) and terrorism (3%) were lower than might be expected
• Unemployment was cited by 37% of respondents out of two possible mentions
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40% Chart 1.2: 'What is the most important problem people are facing in South Sudan today?' (Two possible mentions)
General Satisfaction
8
• Unemployment remains a major concern
• Islamic extremism is not as likely to be perceived as a problem
• When asked about specific issues, HIV/AIDS considered the biggest problem
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
HIV / AIDS Unemployment East AfricanDrought
Islamic Extremists
Chart 1.3: 'Please tell me if this issue is a big problem, a minor problem, or not a problem at all in South Sudan...'
Ref/DK
Not a probllem at all
Minor problem
Big problem
General Satisfaction
9
• Least satisfied with cooking fuel and electricity
• Interesting dichotomy where food and phones rely on fuel and electricity
• Urban respondents were most satisfied with food and mobile phone service
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Food MobilePhoneService
Clean, SafeDrinkingWater
AdequateShelter
Education /Schools
Health Care CookingFuel
Electricity
Chart 1.4: 'How satisfied are you with your ability tot get the following goods or services for you and your family?'
Ref/DK
Very Dissatisfied
Somewhatdissatisfied
Somewhatsatisfied
Very Satisfied
General Satisfaction
10
• This increased post independence to a point where nearly all want to remain
• This finding underscores the optimism and potential ‘honeymoon’ period
• Most respondents wanted to stay in South Sudan prior to independence
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Before Independence After Independence
Chart 1.5: Desire to Relocate
Want toRelocate
Want to Stay inSouth Sudan
Government Confidence
11
• Ability to combat HIV/AIDS and corruption is significantly more suspect
• Inability to deal with corruption could bring an end to the ‘honeymoon period’
• Extremely high optimism around national defense
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
DefendingOur Country
ProvidingHealthcare
ProvidingBasic Services
ControllingInflation
Creating MoreJobs
HIV/AIDS CombatingEconomic
Corruption
Chart 3.1: How successful do you think the South Sudanese government will be in dealing with...?
Ref/DK
Very Unsuccessful
SomewhatUnseccessful
Somewhatsuccessful
Very successful
Government Confidence
12
• Favorability of both national and local government is similarly high
• Not surprisingly, Bashir and Ahmed are viewed very negatively
• Most visible politicians within South Sudan enjoy extremely high favorability
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
PresidentSalva KirMayardit
Leg. SpeakerJames Wani
Igga
VP RiekMachar
South SudanGovernment
LocalGovernment
KenyaPresident
Mwai Kibaki
SomaliPresident
SharifSheikhAhmed
SudanPresidentOmar Al-
Bashir
Chart 3.2: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of…?
Ref/DK
Veryunfavorable
Somewhatunfavorable
Somewhatfavorable
Veryfavorable
Government Confidence
13
• Courts and media both measure slightly lower but still show strong confidence
• Perceptions of corruption could quickly erode these high levels of trust
• Trust is similarly high for most government and non-government institutions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Military Police Local Gov Natn'l Gov Courts
Chart 3.3: Trust in South Sudanese Gov't Institutions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Intn'l Aid Orgs NGOs Media Outlets
Chart 3.4: Trust in South Sudanese Non Gov't Institutions
Ref/DK
Not at alltrustworthy
Not verytrustworthy
Somewhattrustworthy
Verytrustworthy
Government Confidence
14
• However, perceptions of corruption and foreign influence are prevalent as well
• Inability to change perception of corruption could quickly erode overall confidence
• High optimism in representativeness of government and ability to defend
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Represents the peopleof South Sudan
Can protect people ofSouth Sudan
Is corrupt Is influenced byforeign groups or
countries
Chart 3.4: How strongly do you agree that the government of South Sudan:
Ref/DK
Too soon to say
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Security and Violence
15
• Data preceded recent outbreaks of violence which have likely altered perceptions
• This is a positive starting point for a new country with a long history of violence
• Confidence in defense has led to a feeling of local security
31%
39%
13%
15%
3%
Chart 5.1: How would you rate the level of security in your neighborhood?
Very good
Somewhat good
Somewhat bad
Very bad
Ref/DK
Security and Violence
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• 57% believe it will continue to improve over next 6 months, though uncertainly also grew as non-response went from 5% to 19%
• Recent violence would indicate that early optimism may not have come to fruition
• Nearly half believe local security has improved over past 6 months
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Last 6 months Next 6 months
Chart 5.2: Do you believe the level of security in your neighborhod has / will…
Ref / DK
Gotten / will getworse
Stayed / willstay the same
Gotten / will getbetter
Foreign Influences
17
• Possibility of a new war seems to have justified these early fears
• Public perceptions of fear could fuel the recent conflicts over borders and oil
• Sudan overwhelmingly acknowledged as the greatest threat
83%
2%
3% 1%
1% 3% 8%
Chart 6.1: Which country currently poses the greatest threat to South Sudan?
Nothern Sudan
Somali
Uganda
Kenya
Ethiopia
Other
Ref/DK
Foreign Influence
18
• China has more UN troops than the US, but only 1% view them as preferred partner
• Indicates that if war breaks out, South Sudanese will look to the US for assistance
• Despite a lack of past military support, US perceived as greatest desired ally
49%
4% 1%
22%
5%
4%
3% 4% 6%
Chart 6.2: Which foreign country would you most want international aid or help from to help fight against violence or
instability in South Sudan?
USA
UK / Britain
China
Other African Countries
Israel
European Union
United Nations
Other
DK / Ref
Foreign Influence
19
• African and European Unions are also viewed favorably
• Solutions to conflict brokered by the Arab league may not be accepted as readily
• UN viewed most favorably among international organizations
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
United Nations African Union European Union Arab League
Chart 6.3: Farovibility of global organizations
Ref/DK
Very unfavorable
Somewhat unfavorable
Somewhat favorable
Very favorable
Hydrocarbon Policy
20
• A majority (62%) would like a new pipeline built through Kenya
• The preferred solution is estimated to take 15 or more years, so an intermediate solution needs to be found and public support needs to be fostered
• Few (17%) respondents prefer continuing partnership with Sudan on oil
17%
62%
11%
5% 5%
Chart 4.4: Best option for South Sudan to export oil
Use existing pipelinesthrough Sudan
Build a new pipelinethrough Kenya
Partner with Uganda tobuild a shared pipeline
Other
DK
Field Challenges • Very few research resources are available in South Sudan currently
• Teams in each city had to be recruited from universities and local contacts then trained for 2 days and monitored closely and retrained when necessary throughout the field period
• Lack of reliable, current population statistics and detailed city maps created significant challenges in sampling and fielding
• Large number of local languages and dialects also created a unique
challenge
– Most surveys were able to be fully conducted in Arabic or English
– Respondents in villages around cities needed additional explanation
in other languages
• Although it proved labor intensive, the field teams were able to deliver reliable data within the urban areas sampled
• Capturing a representative, national sample for future research will require a significant allocation of resources to build up rural research capabilities
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For Further Information
Please contact:
D3 Systems, Inc.
703.388.2450
www.d3systems.com
Brian M. Kirchhoff
Matthew Warshaw
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Core Services
For over 25 years, D3 has provided
cutting-edge, full-service research
results to its global clientele.
Today, D3 has worked in over 110
countries providing quantitative and
qualitative research services in its core
service areas. The Middle East, the
European Union, Russia and the former
Soviet Union, Latin/South America and
Asia are areas of company focus.
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