Vol 5 - Issue 5 August 2011 Rs.3.50 Made only for seasoned ... · SundaramAssetManagement 1 TheWiseInvestorAugust2011 Made only for seasoned investors Vol 5 - Issue 5 |August 2011

SundaramAsset Management TheWise Investor August 20111

Made only for seasoned investors

Vol 5 - Issue 5 | August 2011 | Rs.3.50

decade ago when three sectors – consumer, industrials andmaterials accounted for 70 per cent of the market cap.

• Financials have become a significant part, as there have beensizeable gains with several small-sized banks and financecompanies coming to the fore;

• Utilities also have a more prominent presence on account ofnew listings while the biggest loser is consumer discretionary;

• The top three sectors in the micro-cap territory stay consumerdiscretionary, industrials and materials, collectively accountingfor about 65% of the market as compared to 70 per cent inDecember 2000 with the entire decline coming in materials;

• Real estate is the only sector to post meaningful gains on theback of several small companies taking the IPO route;

• The core small-cap and micro-cap spaces declined by 65 percent and 67 per cent respectively in 2008; and

• Interestingly, the market cap has moved past to 2007 peak levelsin both cases.

These parts of the cap curve are not for the faint hearted and earlyinvestors in equity as an asset class. Seasoned investors can considera prudent allocation but must avoid overdoing it.

T P RamanManaging DirectorSundaram Asset Management

To wrap up the sector profile of different parts of the market, in this

third part,we are look at high-risk parts of the cap curve, commonly

understood to be small-cap and micro-cap territory. The broad

sector classification is available in the accompanying table. Here is a

quick summary:

• The micro-cap territory of the market is today similar in size to

what the total market cap of the NSE was ten years ago.This is

due to 50-fold rise in values and more listings;

• The core small-cap space looks much more diversified than a

Perspective

Sector Profile Third 100 (201 - 300) Stocks on the NSE Rest of the Stocks (beyond # 300)

Data Source: Bloomberg; Analysis: Sundaram Asset Management

GICS Classification Dec-00%

Dec-07%

Dec-8%

Dec-10%

Dec-00%

Dec-07%

Dec-8%

Dec-10%

Consumer Discretionary 29.1 13.7 9.7 14.7 21.5 20.3 20.5 20.1Consumer Staples 3.6 13.5 6.7 3.9 7.6 6.1 6.2 8.4Energy 1.2 2.0 2.9 2.9 1.9 1.7 2.4 1.7Financials 9.4 11.7 14.5 17.2 7.3 7.0 5.8 6.3Financials (Real Estate) 2.9 5.1 3.5 6.2 0.9 1.7 3.6 4.0Health Care 6.8 7.5 11.5 5.6 4.3 5.8 5.0 6.1Industrials 14.7 17.2 16.7 14.0 22.0 22.5 23.1 23.2Information Technology 8.1 7.9 5.9 7.0 8.2 11.6 11.2 8.7Materials 22.9 19.2 22.4 19.6 26.4 21.0 21.4 20.1Telecom 2.2 1.2 3.2 0.2 0.2 0.6Utilities 1.3 5.0 5.6 0.1 2.0 0.7 0.9

Market Cap (Rs. Crore) 12027 341971 119713 354735 11942 539752 173305 589164

% to NSE Market Cap 2.3 5.3 4.1 5.0 2.3 8.4 6.0 8.3


IndiaView Equity

Sundaram Select Mid-Cap was the first dedicated mid-capfund in India. It has just stepped into its tenth year. SatishRamanathan has been managing the fund since October 2007.

He discusses how the mid-cap space has evolved in India andwhat the trends mean for fund managers and investors.

How do you view the mid-cap space as India’s first mid-cap fundsteps into its tenth year?

We view the mid-cap space as an extremely interestingspace, as it plays on India’s growth story and many smallercompanies have emerged into larger companies. Mid-capcompanies, are named on account of their marketcapitalization, though it may be unfair to call them so as theymay be leaders in their line of business, and may be small onaccount of the stage of development that India is in.

2 Has managing a dedicated fund in the mid-cap space becomeless or more difficult as the years have rolled by?

Managing a mid-cap fund requires that the fund manager isable to discriminate and select companies that have seculargrowth businesses with a high Return on Equity (ROE). Notsurprisingly, markets do tend to create a polarized valuationscenario, and it is important to identify tomorrow’s winnerstoday and yet not get caught in a valuation trap.

So definitely, valuation does play an important role, but is

not the only metric, as the nature of business and promoter

integrity plays an important role. It takes several years for

markets to trust a mid-cap company and its management,

and hence it is a challenge.

Companies that have scored in this aspect are Sun

Pharmaceuticals, Cadila Healthcare, Marico, Dabur and

Pidilite, to name a few. We need to appreciate that high

growth and management integrity is a process and takes

several years, maybe decades. So, a balance of patience and

aggression is required, which is a difficult skill to hone.

What are the key attributes that make for success of companiesin the mid-cap space?

The key attributes that investors look when investing in

mid-cap companies are valuation and ability to grow

sustainability without expanding their capital frequently.

Very often, one can get into a value trap in this space, but if

growth does not emerge soon, it can remain under-priced

far longer than expectation.

At the same time, corporate governance is very important

here, as investors are spoilt for choice in this space.

What is your take on the trend of governance in mid-capcompanies?

Corporate governance is improving in general, but is still not

de-rigueur. Very often, we see companies exploiting their

goodwill and raising capital at very high prices in excess of

their requirements, making acquisitions that dilute

management bandwidth and return ratios.

While, we do appreciate companies building new lines of

businesses as it is necessary to maintain growth, excessive

diversification can be dangerous.

Corporate governance remains a tricky issue, as there are

very few companies that have transitioned from a family-

owned, family-managed corporation to a professional

management.

Q & A on the mid-cap space

Satish RamanathanDirector & Head-Equity

Sundaram Asset Management


This has led to situations of companies moving to a lower

growth trajectory for a sustained period of time if the next-

generation management fails to live up to expectations.

Weak independent directors accentuate the problem.

How important are macro-factors in managing a mid-cap fund?

Or is success or failure linked more to stock-picking than any

other aspect?

Macro factors are as important for mid-caps as they are for

large caps. Mid-caps in general are, however, more

vulnerable to macro-economic developments such as

tighter liquidity and higher interest rates.

In general, mid-cap companies have lower bargaining power

on the operational and financial front and this gets reflected

in lower margins and lower return on equities. An

observation over time is that if large-cap companies correct

due to the industry not doing well, then mid-cap companies

correct much more. Hence macro events are important to

this segment of the market, too.

What is the level of institutional interest in mid-cap stocks? Has

this led to an improvement in liquidity?

The level of institutional interest has been low for the past

few years post the 2008 meltdown. Even among mid-caps,

there has been a shift towards higher quality companies and

companies with lower return ratios have been dumped.

Liquidity of mid-caps have declined as Foreign Institutional

Investors (FIIs) have reduced their exposure to this space

and maintained exposure only to large caps.

Is fund size a constraint in the present environment (it must have

been in the early years of the fund)?

While it is true that our fund was among the largest funds

four years back, there are now several funds whose AUMs

are close to $400 million improving liquidity and stability.

While consensus opinion has been that a large fund limits

performance, what many investors overlook is the stability

of performance.

In fact many of the larger funds have demonstrated greater

resilience during volatile periods. Sundaram Select Mid Cap

has consistently had lower beta and index-beating

performance demonstrating that size has not been a

constraint.

2008 must have been the most challenging in managing the

fund.What underpinned your approach?

While 2008 was challenging, I must admit that every year has

been a challenge thereafter. 2009 was just as difficult as

2008 as there was a global rebound and prices rose very

fast. It was important to be invested in the right sectors to

capture the upside. It was extremely important to maneuver

the portfolio across the right sectors at the right time.

The weighted average market cap of the portfolio has

consistently been at least 60% lower than permitted threshold.

The same is true for median market cap.Why and what does

augur this for investors in the fund?

There has been no specific design in the stock selection

process on the number of companies below a specific

market capitalization. The number of companies above a

certain market cap declines very quickly implying that the

median market cap is just above a $1 billion (Rs4,500 crore)

market capitalization.

Is the mid-cap space still a play on emerging Indian

entrepreneurs?

Although popular perception is that mid-cap stocks, and,

more importantly, portfolios play on the spirit of new

businesses, our portfolio is hardly a private equity portfolio.

We are conscious to have stable,well established companies

in our portfolios.We also require that these companies have

a leadership in their business, however specific it may be.

There are new IPOs that tout a new business paradigm but

the reality is that new businesses take a long time to mature

before they can turn into a high free cash flow business.

Very often they fail.We believe that investor capital is too

precious to chase new businesses, as it as important to avoid

losing money as it is to make investments grow.

From an investor perspective, how different (or similar) is

investing in a mid-cap fund compared to 10 years ago?

From an investor perspective, there is a greater choice with

various grades of risk profile available for investment. There

are many more well established portfolio managers with

impressive track records. For fund managers however, the

job remains as challenging as ever.

IndiaView Equity


Performance Tracker Global

Source: Bloomberg; Analysis: Sundaram Asset Management; Returns is in percentage and in U.S. Dollar terms for each period and not on an annualised basis.

IndexYear-To-Date One Month Three Months Six Months One Year Three Years Five Years

Return Rank Return Rank Return Rank Return Rank Return Rank Return Rank Return Rank

S&P 500 2.8 10 -2.1 19 -5.2 13 0.5 14 17.3 12 2.0 17 1.2 20

Dow Jones 4.9 7 -2.2 20 -5.2 12 2.1 8 16.0 16 6.7 14 8.6 19

Nasdaq Composite 3.9 8 -0.6 11 -4.1 9 2.1 9 22.3 7 18.5 9 31.8 15

Nikkei 225 -3.9 20 0.2 10 -0.2 3 -4.0 23 3.1 23 -26.5 25 -36.4 25

Dax 3.5 9 -2.9 24 -4.7 11 1.1 12 16.4 14 10.5 12 26.0 18

FTSE 100 -1.4 14 -2.2 21 -4.2 10 -0.8 17 10.6 17 7.5 13 -1.9 22

S&P GSCI Index Spot 8.6 6 2.6 5 -9.6 25 4.7 7 30.7 4 -9.7 23 37.7 14

MSCIWorld 2.0 11 -1.9 18 -5.9 17 -0.2 15 16.1 15 -4.4 19 -1.6 21

MSCI Europe -3.8 19 -2.6 23 -6.5 19 -5.4 24 3.6 21 -7.5 21 -19.7 24

MSCI Asia ex-Japan 0.8 12 0.8 9 -3.6 7 1.8 11 17.5 11 19.8 6 54.8 7

Crude 23.9 1 4.6 3 -7.3 21 17.1 3 49.2 1 -5.2 20 55.4 6

Gold 14.6 3 8.5 1 4.1 2 22.1 2 37.8 2 78.1 1 155.7 2

Emerging Markets (MSCI Indices)

BRIC -3.7 18 -1.8 17 -6.5 18 -0.4 16 6.3 18 -4.1 18 53.1 10

Brazil -7.7 24 -4.4 25 -8.4 23 -3.5 22 0.9 24 -9.6 22 88.9 3

Russia 10.2 4 2.0 7 -5.4 14 6.0 6 30.7 5 -18.0 24 -6.3 23

India -11.4 25 -2.5 22 -5.5 15 1.9 10 3.3 22 19.3 7 73.4 5

China -1.6 15 -0.8 13 -5.6 16 -1.1 18 4.5 19 3.3 15 78.6 4

Korea 9.2 5 1.7 8 -3.8 8 6.8 5 34.0 3 31.2 4 47.1 12

Taiwan -4.5 21 -1.3 16 -6.5 20 -7.5 25 21.3 8 19.0 8 28.4 16

Singapore -1.9 17 2.6 4 -1.3 4 -1.6 20 4.4 20 2.8 16 27.4 17

Honk Kong -0.6 13 2.2 6 -1.9 5 -2.5 21 18.8 10 14.8 10 41.4 13

Indonesia 19.0 2 6.8 2 8.4 1 32.2 1 30.5 6 67.7 2 192.7 1

Mexico -1.8 16 -1.0 14 -3.5 6 1.1 13 20.2 9 12.1 11 48.5 11

South Africa -6.0 22 -0.8 12 -7.7 22 7.2 4 16.9 13 25.3 5 53.8 9

Turkey -7.3 23 -1.2 15 -9.1 24 -1.3 19 -0.8 25 36.0 3 54.1 8

Top Performer Brent Gold Indonesia Indonesia Brent Gold Indonesia

Worst Performer India Brazil Commodity Taiwan Turkey Japan Japan

Analysis: SVidhya


IndiaView Bonds

Trading in a tight band

Dwijendra SrivastavaHead-Fixed Income

Sundaram Asset Management

Outlook:With the central bank hooking onto the tightening leash

and the economy gradually slowing down due to higher interest

rates (read higher-cost consumer and industrial loans) the demand

for money can move to lower levers.

In a scenario where the inflation is high, it will be difficult for the

banks to lower down retail deposit rates particularly for the short-

term tenors. In this scenario it is possible that deposit growth might

overtake credit growth in the coming months.

Monsoon deficiency has not been alarming and will have no major

impact on the GDP number but in the backdrop of slowing demand

other sectors in GDP components can decline.We expect the ten-

year benchmark yield to be supported at 8.50% levels and remain in

a band of 8.30% to 8.50% in the coming month.

The CD maturities in August are only Rs 39,000 crore and will not

pose any significant challenge.The money market rates should trade

in a tight band of 10 to 20 basis points.We expect the inflation

number to remain in the higher band above the comfort levels of

the government and the Reserve Bank of India.

Strategy:We will look to deploy the funds in the money market

schemes largely in the one-to-three month buckets depending on

the evolving market dynamics.We expect the below-90 days money

market assets to trade in a tight band.We will look to maintain our

duration in longer-term schemes with a view of unwinding duration

in a more benign environment (read lower inflation).

Key Numbers

The July monetary policy was a shocker from The Reserve Bank

of India raising the signaling rate - . the repo rate by 50 basis points

to 8.00%; similarly, the reverse repo rate was set at 7.00% and

marginal standing facility at 9.00%.The CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio)

and SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio) remained unchanged at 6% and

24% respectively.

Market participants were expecting a dovish tone along with a rise

in signaling rates by 25 basis points (a basis point is 0.01%), but the

policy tone seemed more hawkish with an unexpected additional

25 basis points hike in signaling rate.The underlying concern was

containing inflation and inflationary expectations- the GDP (Gross

Domestic Product) target was retained at 8.0% for FY 12 and

inflation was revised to 7.0% from 6.0% for FY 12.

Primary supply from the banks waned as the maturities of CD

(Certificate of Deposit) was not very large and retail deposits

gained traction making banks inconspicuous in the primary

market.The rates on a three-month CD was trading in a band of

8.45% to 9.18% before closing at 9.05% levels – a rise of 53 basis

points from June month.

The six-month rates and one-year CD rates were higher by 25

basis points as compared to June.On the CP (Commercial Papers)

the rates on the three-months were up by 40 basis points from

June month.The six-month rates were up by 20 basis points and

one-year rates were up by 30 basis points.

The monthly inflation number as indicated by WPI (Wholesale

price Index) was 9.44%, lower than the market consensus of

9.68%.Although inflation was lower than the consensus figure it

was higher than the comfort of the central bank. More specifically

the non-food manufactured inflation whose long term trend has

been around 4% is now ruling at around 7%.

The impact of higher inflation and anti-inflationary stance by the

central bank saw an unwinding of positions by traders which drove

the ten-year G-Sec from 8.31% to 8.40% on policy day before

closing the month at 8.45%.The ten-year traded in a band of 8.27%

to 8.48%.


Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. Please read the Statement of AdditionalInformation of Sundaram Mutual Fund and Scheme Information Document of Schemes ofSundaram Mutual Fund, which are available at www.sundarammutual.com, carefully beforetaking an investment decision.

Risk Factors:All mutual funds and securities investments are subject to market risks.There canbe no assurance or guarantee that a scheme's objective will be achieved. NAV may rise ordecline, depending on factors and forces affecting the securities market. There is risk of capitalloss and uncertainty of dividend distribution.

Sundaram Select Mid Cap - Fund Facts: Name: Sundaram Select Mid Cap (An open-end equityscheme) Investment Objective: To achieve capital appreciation by investing by investing indiversified stocks that are generally termed as mid-caps; Asset Allocation: Equity and equity-related instruments (including investment in derivatives): 75%- 100%. Cash, cash equivalents,money market instruments: Not exceeding 25% Derivative Exposure: 0%-50%. OverseasSecurities Investment: 0-35%. Minimum Investment: Rs 5,000. SIP: The minimum amount is Rs1000 (Weekly Option), Rs 250 (Monthly Option) and Rs 750 (Quarterly Option).Available datesfor monthly and quarterly option for SIP are 1, 7, 14, 20 and 25.Weekly SIP will be onWednesdayof every week. If it is not a business day the investment will be processed on the next businessday. Exit Load: 1% if redeemed within 12 months from date of allotment for Regular andInstitutional Plan. There is no entry/exit load for bonus units and dividend re-investment. NAVpublication/sale/redemption is available on business days. Scheme-Specific Risk Factors: Lack ofliquidity at times and volatility. Change in Government policy in general and changes in tax benefitsapplicable to mutual funds may impact the returns to Investors. Tax-free status for long-termcapital gains and dividend will depend on the fund investing 65% and above in equity to qualify inaccordance with provisions of the Income-Tax Act. Derivative exposure Risk: Counter Party risk,Model risk, Market Liquidity risk and Basis risk. Overseas Securities Investment Risk: Country risk,currency risk, geo-political risk, legal restrictions and regulation changes in geography other thanIndia. . Sundaram Select Mid Cap is only the name of the Scheme and does not in any mannerindicate either the quality of the Scheme, its future prospects or returns.

General Disclaimer: TheWise Investor, a monthly publication of Sundaram Asset Management, isfor information purposes only. The Wise Investor is not and should not be construed as aprospectus, scheme information document, offer document, offer solicitation for an investmentand investment advice, to name a few. Information in this document has been obtained fromsources that are reliable in the opinion of Sundaram Asset Management.

Opinions expressed by authors do not necessarily represent that of Sundaram Mutual Fund orSundaram Asset Management or SundaramTrustee Company or Sundaram Finance, the sponsor.

Statutory: Mutual Fund: Sundaram Mutual Fund is a trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882Sponsor (Liability is limited to Rs 1 lakh): Sundaram Finance Limited; Investment Manager:Sundaram Asset Management Company Limited. Trustee: Sundaram Trustee Company Limited.Past performance of Sponsors/Asset Management Company/Fund does not indicate or guaranteefuture performance.

Disclaimer

GREED & fear can only repeat that a euro-quake is the

biggest risk for holders of risk assets right now, including of

course equities. For such a panic is likely to lead to a violent

short-covering deleveraging rally in the US dollar and a rally

in the US government bond market at least to last year’s low

of 2.38% on the 10-year Treasury bond.

This will then set up the market action to justify Ben

Bernanke moving to implement a third wave of quantitative

easing. GREED & fear continues to be amazed how sure the

consensus has become that there will not be a QE3 because

QE2 “has not worked”.

Yet GREED & fear has seen no comment from the Fed

chairman to that effect. And sure enough, Billyboy pleased

equity investors by stating in his congressional testimony that

“the Federal Reserve remains prepared to respond should

economic developments indicate that an adjustment in the

stance of monetary policy would be appropriate”, and that

one approach would be “to initiate more securities purchases

or to increase the average maturity of our holdings”.

All the evidence is then that Bernanke continues to believe in

the potency of monetary policy to combat deflation.

Meanwhile, the latest US employment data has highlighted yet

again that the recovery is weaker in terms of job generation

than any recovery since the 1930s. Thus, total non-farm

payrolls increased by only 18,000 jobs in June, with private

employers adding only 57,000 jobs and government cutting

39,000 jobs. This is the smallest monthly increase in private

jobs since May 2010.

Indeed US non-farm payrolls are now still 7 million or 5.1%

below its previous peak reached 41 months ago in January

2008. This is the worst job losses relative to previous peak

employment since the data series began in 1939.

For all the post-WorldWar II business cycles in the US, non-

farm payrolls rose by an average of 4.4% 41 months following

the previous peak employment was reached.

ChristopherWood, Managing Director & Strategist

of CLSA Asia-Pacific, an independent research outfit

and author of the weekly report GREED & Fear.

The OutsideViewImage of the Month

Source: Robert Ariail, Townhall.com via Investment Postcards from Cape Town


The views presented by the author (s) do not necessarily represent that of Sundaram Asset Management.The article / posts have been reproduced with permissionor from reports available in the public domain in order to provide readers access to a diverse range of views on the economy and asset markets.

The problem of the US is that they grossly neglected their

infrastructure for the last twenty years. In other words, they have

the same trains, they have to run on the same rail track and that

hasn’t been modernized by and large.

They have the same subways that they had fifty years ago and so

forth.

And much too little as the percent of the economy has been

invested. It’s all been spent. Consumption. And that doesn’t create

wealth.What you consume, what you eat is gone.

What you use in gasoline and burn is gone unless it’s used for

running factories that produce something. So basically, the US

economic policy, it’s not just a monetary problem.

But the entire economic policies have been to perpetuate an

American dream and live beyond means for the last twenty to thirty

years.And that’s just not realistic.

It was built on borrowing more and more to offset the declining

income in real terms -- you know, those inflation adjusted terms.

And now, the power of to borrow more is gone

Marc Faber, renowned investor and publisher of the monthlyGloom, Boom & Doom Report. (Source: Financial Sense).

� It’s always a matter of controlling risk. Risky things are not inthemselves risky if you understand them and control them. Ifyou do it randomly and you are sloppy, it can be very risky.

� The key to success is figuring out “Where is the edge? And howdo I stay the right distance from the edge?”

� I’m always trying to figure out my probability of knowing. Giventhat I’m never sure, I don’t want to have any concentrated bets

� There hasn’t been a case in history where they haven’t eventuallyprinted money and devalued their currency.

� Other developed countries, particularly those tied to the euroand thus to the European Central Bank, don’t have the optionof printing money and are destined to undergo “classicdepressions,”.

� People concentrate on the particular thing of the moment, andthey forget the larger underlying forces.That’s what got us intothe debt crisis. It’s just today, today.

� I think late 2012 or early 2013 is going to be another verydifficult period.

Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s richesthedge fund (Source:The NewYorker)

Voices

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TheWise Investor

1 The U.S credit rating was downgraded recently.When was the previous time this occurred?

2 Why is the Buttonwood Agreement significant in the history of financial markets?

3 Only two mutual funds have wound up their operations in India. Name them

4 If you track the FTSE/MondoVisione Index, on what set of stocks will you be keeping a tab?

5 Who is the author of The Ascent of Money?Answers must be mailed to [email protected] first 25 responses with correct answers to all questions will receive a prize. Please mention your mailing address inyour e-mail. Employees of Sundaram Asset Management, its Sponsors and Associates & Group Companies of theSponsors shall not be entitled to prizes even if they participate and mail correct answers.

PRIZE

1 Which country famously (or infamously) sold a sizeable quantity ofgold when its price was $ 250 about a decade ago?United Kingdom

2 Who is the author ofWhen Giants Fall?Michael Panzer

3 Who is set to be the next President of the European Central Bank?Mario Draghi

4 What is the maximum total expense ratio (fees + expenses) for afund-of-funds in India?0.75%

5 Which financial institution has a controlling stake in GRUH Finance,the small-sized home-loan company?H D F C

Answers for July 2011 Quiz

BackPage Investment Quiz

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CompiledbyS.VaidyaNathan

Published by Sunil Subramaniam on behalf of Sundaram Asset Management Company Limited, from its office at SundaramTowers, II Floor, 46,Whites Road, Chennai 600 014.Printed by R.Velayudhan at Paper Craft, No.25, C.P.Mudali Street, Pudupet, Chennai 600 002.Editor : Sunil Subramaniam.

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Vol 5 - Issue 5 August 2011 Rs.3.50 Made only for seasoned ... · SundaramAssetManagement 1 TheWiseInvestorAugust2011 Made only for seasoned investors Vol 5 - Issue 5 |August 2011