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The German energy transition
Volker Stehmann
RWE AG
Rotterdam
25 June 2013
SEITE 2
Energy concept of the federal government has
set the guidelines for the energy transition
Share of total electricity
generation with renewables
energies Greenhouse gas emissions (100%=1990)
Electricity consumption (100%= 2008)*
* : concrete numbers are only given for 2020 and 2050 .
More reneweables, less emissions
in %
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2030 2040 2050
35
50
65
80
Reduce electricity
consumption by 25% against
2008 until 2050
Increase share of renewable
energies to 80% of electricity
generation
Reduce greenhouse gas
emissions by at least 80%
against 1990
- 80 -
- 95%
- 25%
Reduce primary energy
consumption by 50% against
2008 until 2050
2015
2017
2021
2019
2022
2011
Grafenrheinfeld
Gundremmingen B
Grohnde, Brokdorf, Gundremmingen C
Phillipsburg 2
Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2, Emsland
Biblis A, Neckarwestheim 1, Biblis B, Brunsbüttel,
Isar 1, Unterweser, Philippsburg, Krümmel
All German nuclear power plants will be cut off
step by step until 2022 Year of cut off
SEITE 4
The energy transition is based on a complex
interplay of the entire energy market
> Ongoing increase in capacity
> But volatile generation
> Compensates peak load, stores
electricity
> Today‘s storage capacity not
sufficient
> Network expansion
> Demand Side Management to
reduce peak load
> Market Design
> Generates electricity when
needed
Storage / Reserve capacity
Flexible conventional
generation
Renewable energy sources
Infrastructure / Regulation
SEITE 5
The development of photovoltaics has been
clearly under-estimated.
MW
Installed 2012:
~ 32,5 GW
Increasing photovoltaics feed-in strongly impacts
the daily energy price…
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
0
10
20
30
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50
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80
90
100
110
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140
20:00 18:00 04:00 02:00 24:00 22:00 08:00 06:00 16:00 14:00 12:00 10:00
EPEX 15.05.2008 Electricity generation PV 15.05.2012 EPEX 16.05.2012
Use of middle- and peak-load plants
[€/MWh] [MW]
Source: EEX
…not only in Germany, but also in Central / Western
Europe…
Electricity prices for one hour at european stock exchanges (in €/MWh (left axis)) and Germand PV-electricity-
poduction (in GW (right axis)); 8th May 20121)
1) Source: EEX; RWE Supply&Trading.
Germany German PV-production France Switzerland
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
00
:00
01
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0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
…and boosts German electricity exports.
An example of conventional power plants:
massive decrease of working hours
Juni 2009 Juli 2009
MW
Usage of the gas CHP unit in Gersteinwerk F (427 MW) 2009 compared to 2011
Juni 2011 Juli 2011
MW
Production in June and July 2009 Production in June and July 2011
Integration of renewables and challenges to security
of supply
0
5
10
15
20
25
00:0
0
03:0
0
06:0
0
09:0
0
12:0
0
15:0
0
18:0
0
21:0
0
00:0
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03:0
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06:0
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09:0
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12:0
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00:0
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03:0
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06:0
0
09:0
0
12:0
0
15:0
0
18:0
0
21:0
0
max: 22.656 MW
04.02.2011, 19:00
min: 140 MW
20.05.2011, 10:00
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
00:0
0
03:0
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06:0
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09:0
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12:0
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15:0
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18:0
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21:0
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03:0
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06:0
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09:0
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15:0
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18:0
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21:0
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00:0
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03:0
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06:0
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09:0
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12:0
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15:0
0
18:0
0
21:0
0
max: 13.096 MW
09.05.2011, 12:00
min: 592 MW
01.01.2011, 12:00
Quelle: RWE Supply&Trading, MLT-VW
GW GW
03.02.2011 - 05.02.2011 19.05.2011 - 21.05.2011 08.05.2011 - 10.05.2011 31.12.2010 - 02.01.2011
Wind Photovoltaics
In the first half-year of 2011 alone, there were variations of 23 GW in wind feed-
in and 13 GW in photovoltaics feed-in.
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
20.000
02.02. 03.02. 04.02. 05.02. 06.02. 07.02.
2009
Win
d P
ow
er
[MW
]Long stagnations have to be bridged
Data Source: ISET
0
4.000
8.000
12.000
16.000
20.000
24.000
Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez
2008
Win
d P
ow
er
[MW
]
2008
I. Huge fluctuation & oversupply
possible
II. Extreme
power gradient
III. Long stagnations to be bridged
Total installed wind power: 24.817 MW (1st Dec 2009)
pump storage capacity today
Power supply remains critical in winter
> Grids are at their limits
> 2000 MW had to be sourced from
reserve power plants in the German
south and Austria during winter
2011/2012
> Reserves around 2.500 MW were
contracted during winter 2012/2013
> Shutdown of more conventional power
plants prohibited
> Help only via grid expansion
Grid expansion due to more renewables and less nuclear. Grid Development Plan November 2012
> 2.800 km of new Very High
Voltage Lines (including around
1.700 km of DC links)
> 2.800 km modernization of
existing Very High Voltage Lines
> € 20 bn costs excluding ground
cable
> In addition, DSOs are expecting
investment needs of € 27 - 42 bn
until 2030
SEITE 14
REA1 compensation Generation
subsidized by REA1
1 REA = German Renewable Energy Act.
2 Next to the power generation subsidised by the German REA of 92,266 GWh in 2011, another 12,332 GWh of power from renewable sources
(REA electricity) was sold on the free market (direct marketing in accordance with §17 REA).
3 Including avoided network fees.
Gross generation in Germany (2011)
614.5 billion
kWh
Renewable energy’s share of total electricity
generation in Germany
Lignite 24.9%
Hard coal 18.6%
Renewable energy 19.9%
Photovoltaic
Hydro
Wind 26%
27%
1%
46%
Biomass
Nuclear 17.6%
Other 5.3%
Gas 13.7%
Photovoltaic
Hydro
Biomass
Wind
20%
2%
27%
51%
92 billion kWh2 € 16 bn3
Sources: Gross generation: BDEW, BMWI; REA generation + REA compensation: German transmission system operators
(www.eeg-kwk.net) as of November 2010 (provisional data).
SEITE 15
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Hydro Biomass Onshore wind Offshore wind Photovoltaic Other
1.6 1.2
2.2 2.6
3.6
4.5 5.8
7.9
20.7
22.1
9.0
10.0
12.3
16.0
18.0
19.3
3.1
3.8
5.2
0.3
0.1
4.0
4.3
0.2
23.7
11.1
0.2
7.3
German Renewable Energy Act compensation
and forecast through 2016
€ billion (gross)
Source: Renewable Energy Act medium-term forecast of electricity transmission system operators. Data until 2010 as of May 2009, data for
2011 as of November 2010, data for 2012 onwards as of November 2011 (from 2012 onwards fees for market premium, direct
marketing and photovoltaic self consumption included).
SEITE 16
Industry medium voltage access*
Sources: VEA, BDEW; Prices as of 10/2012
Households**
* Without electricity tax ** average 3-person household; 3500 kWh/a
1998 = 100
Electricity prices for households and industry
- including taxes and levies
Generation, Grid, Supply Taxes and levies
SEITE 17
Monthly bill for households
Source: BDEW, 31 January 2013
*estimated
2013 against 1998 Average monthly electricity bill of a 3-person-household in Euro Consumption of 3.500 kWh
Generation, Grid, Supply Taxes and levies
+ 67 %
+ 242 %
+ 9 %
37,65
25,14 28,32 31,56 32,73 34,27 35,55 37,95 41,17 40,51 40,25 41,33 41,21
12,25
15,52
18,67 20,83 21,71
22,50 24,66
25,21 26,54 28,59
33,34 34,18 41,92
1998 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
49,90
40,66
46,99 52,39 54,44 56,77
60,21 63,16
67,71 69,10 73,59 75,51
83,13
3,6 5,3
Renewable levy (ct / kwh)
Systematic approach for a new market design
Climate Change: Emission Trading Scheme
The ETS is working. Climate change goals are being met, as the emissions
are capped. But conflicting national regulation and potential floor prices are
undermining the ETS and investment signals. 2030 targets are needed.
Overall cost efficiency: Renewable Support Scheme
The German renewable support scheme needs modifications. Renewable
energies need to be integrated into the market framework and take
balancing responsibility. Energy must remain affordable.
Security of Supply: Capacity Market
In the longer run, firm capacity needs to have a value. Due to support
schemes and privileged RES access to the grid, conventional plants can
hardly earn their fixed costs.
Thank you for your attention.
