Voluntary Initiatives and Early Voluntary Initiatives and Early Reductions under AB 32 Reductions under AB 32

Jonathan EvansJonathan Evans

Staff Attorney, Center for Biological DiversityStaff Attorney, Center for Biological Diversity

Global Warming Impacts and Need for Rapid Global Warming Impacts and Need for Rapid ReductionsReductions

AB 32 Voluntary Early ReductionsAB 32 Voluntary Early Reductions

AB 32 Discrete Early Actions and Expanded Early AB 32 Discrete Early Actions and Expanded Early ActionsActions

California Environmental Quality ActCalifornia Environmental Quality Act– Requirement for GHG analysisRequirement for GHG analysis– Framework for Climate Change AnalysisFramework for Climate Change Analysis

Climate Change and WildlifeClimate Change and Wildlife

Species committed to extinction by 2050 due Species committed to extinction by 2050 due to business as usual climate projections:to business as usual climate projections:

Minimum warming scenario: 18% Minimum warming scenario: 18% Mid-range warming scenario: 24%Mid-range warming scenario: 24% Maximum warming scenario: 35%Maximum warming scenario: 35%

Thomas et al. 2004. Extinction risk from climate change. Thomas et al. 2004. Extinction risk from climate change. NatureNature 427:145-148.427:145-148.

During warm “greenhouse” phases global During warm “greenhouse” phases global biodiversity been relatively low while biodiversity been relatively low while extinction rates have been relatively high.extinction rates have been relatively high.

Mayhew et al. 2007. A long term association between global Mayhew et al. 2007. A long term association between global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record. record. Proc. R. Soc. BProc. R. Soc. B (doi:10.1098/rspb.2007.1302) (doi:10.1098/rspb.2007.1302)

NASA/Goddard Space Flight CenterScientific Visualization Studio

Future reduction of sea ice in the Arctic Future reduction of sea ice in the Arctic could result in a loss of 2/3 of the could result in a loss of 2/3 of the world's polar bear population within world's polar bear population within 50 years.50 years.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service photoU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service photo

Desert tortoise

Cassin’s auklet

Bay checkerspot Butterfly

© Shaye Wolf

American Pika

© Michael Mengak, University of Georgia

© Richard A. Arnold

California Climate Change Center. Luers et al. 2006.

Increase in WildfiresIncrease in Wildfires

Source of data : Westerling and Bryant, “Climate change and wildfire in and around California: Fire modeling and loss modeling” (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov

LOWER WARMING RANGE

MEDIUM WARMING RANGE

2035-2064 2070-20990

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AB 32 Voluntary Early ReductionsAB 32 Voluntary Early Reductions

ARB is to ensure that entities that have voluntarily ARB is to ensure that entities that have voluntarily reduced their GHG emissions prior to 2012 reduced their GHG emissions prior to 2012 receive appropriate credit for early voluntary receive appropriate credit for early voluntary reductionsreductions– H&S Code §38562(b)(3)H&S Code §38562(b)(3)

ARB is to adopt methodologies for the ARB is to adopt methodologies for the quantification of voluntary greenhouse gas quantification of voluntary greenhouse gas emission reductionsemission reductions– H&S Code §38571H&S Code §38571

ARB avenues for addressing ARB avenues for addressing voluntary early actionsvoluntary early actions

Policy statement on treatment of early Policy statement on treatment of early voluntary reductionsvoluntary reductions

Solicitation of voluntary reduction protocols Solicitation of voluntary reduction protocols and projectsand projects

Voluntary Early Reductions PolicyVoluntary Early Reductions Policy

Work with the California Climate Action Registry to develop Work with the California Climate Action Registry to develop a process for recording voluntary emission reductionsa process for recording voluntary emission reductions

Review proposed quantification methodologies for Review proposed quantification methodologies for voluntary GHG emission reductionsvoluntary GHG emission reductions

Work with the South Coast Air Quality Management District Work with the South Coast Air Quality Management District and other local air districts to promote development of and other local air districts to promote development of quantification methodologies and protocolsquantification methodologies and protocols

Encouraging voluntary early actionEncouraging voluntary early action

AB 32 directs ARB to design regulations in a AB 32 directs ARB to design regulations in a manner that encourages early action to manner that encourages early action to reduce GHG emissionsreduce GHG emissions– H&S Code §38562(b)(1)H&S Code §38562(b)(1)

AB32 VoluntaryAB32 VoluntaryEarly Reductions -- Early Reductions --

A Closer LookA Closer Look

Jocelyn ThompsonJocelyn ThompsonApril 14, 2008April 14, 2008

Weston Benshoof Rochefort Rubalcava MacCuish LLP

Voluntary Early ReductionsVoluntary Early Reductions

Why do they matter?Why do they matter?– CO2 is cumulative in the atmosphereCO2 is cumulative in the atmosphere– Lag time before mandatory reduction measures in Lag time before mandatory reduction measures in

placeplace Early action reduction regulations to be adopted by Jan 1, Early action reduction regulations to be adopted by Jan 1,

20102010 Emission limits and reduction measures regulations to be Emission limits and reduction measures regulations to be

adopted by Jan. 1, 2011adopted by Jan. 1, 2011 Regulations to become operative by Jan. 1, 2012Regulations to become operative by Jan. 1, 2012

– Want to encourage investments in reductionsWant to encourage investments in reductions

The Policy StatementThe Policy Statement

To the extent feasibleTo the extent feasible, Scoping Plan and , Scoping Plan and implementing regulations will:implementing regulations will:– Encourage and reward VER.Encourage and reward VER.– Ensure recognition of actions undertaken Ensure recognition of actions undertaken

post-enactment of AB32.post-enactment of AB32.– Ensure that any credits provided for VER are Ensure that any credits provided for VER are

based on reductions that are real, based on reductions that are real, permanent, additional, quantifiable, permanent, additional, quantifiable, verifiable, enforceable.verifiable, enforceable.

The Policy StatementThe Policy Statement

To promote the policy, ARB will:To promote the policy, ARB will:– Work with California Climate Action Registry to Work with California Climate Action Registry to

establish a process to document reductionsestablish a process to document reductions ARB to determine later the “appropriate” creditARB to determine later the “appropriate” credit ARB to determine later the conditions under which voluntary ARB to determine later the conditions under which voluntary

reductions may be usedreductions may be used

– Review quantification methodologies for proposed Review quantification methodologies for proposed reduction projectsreduction projects

– Work with air districts to promote expedited Work with air districts to promote expedited quantification methodologies & protocolsquantification methodologies & protocols

Limitations of the Policy StatementLimitations of the Policy Statement

No guarantees.No guarantees. Reassures re: CARB intent and direction.Reassures re: CARB intent and direction. Applies prospectively only.Applies prospectively only.

– Pre-AB32 reductions to be considered in development Pre-AB32 reductions to be considered in development of Scoping Plan & trading program.of Scoping Plan & trading program.

– Same for reductions post-AB32 adoption but prior to Same for reductions post-AB32 adoption but prior to adoption of Policy Statement.adoption of Policy Statement.

No new insights into statutory criteria to No new insights into statutory criteria to qualify reductions.qualify reductions.

Sets up case-by-case review of reductionsSets up case-by-case review of reductions

Qualifying CriteriaQualifying Criteria

Emission reductions must be:Emission reductions must be:– RealReal– PermanentPermanent– AdditionalAdditional– QuantifiableQuantifiable– VerifiableVerifiable– EnforceableEnforceable

Terms adapted from criteria pollutant ERC Terms adapted from criteria pollutant ERC regime . . . . What do they mean here?regime . . . . What do they mean here?

Qualifying CriteriaQualifying Criteria

As applied to criteria pollutant ERCs, these As applied to criteria pollutant ERCs, these criteria result in restrictive accounting, e.g.:criteria result in restrictive accounting, e.g.:– Use of recent historical average emissions (not peak).Use of recent historical average emissions (not peak).– Rarely granted credit for mobile source reductions.Rarely granted credit for mobile source reductions.– No credit if emissions overlooked in SIP inventory.No credit if emissions overlooked in SIP inventory.– Reductions discounted to reflect BACT.Reductions discounted to reflect BACT.– No credit if reductions achieved as result of project No credit if reductions achieved as result of project

undertaken for other regulatory purpose.undertaken for other regulatory purpose. What will these terms will mean under AB32?What will these terms will mean under AB32?

– ARB will tell you in 2011.ARB will tell you in 2011.

Sources of GHG EmissionsSources of GHG Emissions

Case-By-Case ApprovalCase-By-Case Approval

Process for Obtaining ApprovalProcess for Obtaining Approval– Propose project to ARB with quantification Propose project to ARB with quantification

methodology.methodology.– ARB will prioritize proposals; review.ARB will prioritize proposals; review.– If ARB agrees with quantification methodology, If ARB agrees with quantification methodology,

will adopt Executive Order.will adopt Executive Order.

Executive Order only confirms quantification Executive Order only confirms quantification – does not approve credit.– does not approve credit.

Uncertain Prospects For CreditUncertain Prospects For Credit

““You could have a credit. It just might not You could have a credit. It just might not be worth anything. You could have be worth anything. You could have quantified it. You could have registered it. quantified it. You could have registered it. You could be meeting all these tests. But You could be meeting all these tests. But the question is, what are you going to do the question is, what are you going to do with it at the end of the day? . . . with it at the end of the day? . . . That’s That’s what we really don’t know at this point.”what we really don’t know at this point.”

Mary Nichols 2-28-08Mary Nichols 2-28-08

Jocelyn’s SuggestionsJocelyn’s Suggestions

Take actions that make sense for other Take actions that make sense for other reasons, without banking on VER credit.reasons, without banking on VER credit.

Stationary source reductions preferred over Stationary source reductions preferred over mobile or area source reductions.mobile or area source reductions.

Reductions inside facility/plant boundaries Reductions inside facility/plant boundaries preferred over external or 3preferred over external or 3rdrd party reductions. party reductions.

Avoid trading in credits before California Avoid trading in credits before California system established.system established.

If interested, make proposal to ARB quickly.If interested, make proposal to ARB quickly.

AB 32:AB 32:

Early ActionsEarly Actions

AB 32 Discrete Early Actions: AB 32 Discrete Early Actions: Transportation & Shipping SectorTransportation & Shipping Sector

Low Carbon Fuel StandardLow Carbon Fuel Standard

Green PortsGreen Ports

Smartway Truck EfficiencySmartway Truck Efficiency

Tire InflationTire Inflation

AB 32 Discrete Early Actions:AB 32 Discrete Early Actions:Commercial & Industry SectorCommercial & Industry Sector

Reduction in high Global Warming Potential Reduction in high Global Warming Potential (GWP) Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) in consumer (GWP) Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) in consumer productsproducts

Perfluorocarbon (PFC) reduction in semiconductor Perfluorocarbon (PFC) reduction in semiconductor industryindustry

Restrictions on High GWP refrigerantsRestrictions on High GWP refrigerants

Sulfur hexafluoride (SFSulfur hexafluoride (SF66) reductions in the non-) reductions in the non-electricity sectorelectricity sector

AB 32 Discrete Early Action: AB 32 Discrete Early Action: Land UseLand Use

Landfill methane captureLandfill methane capture

AB 32 Early Actions: Land UseAB 32 Early Actions: Land Use

Local Government GHG reduction guidance Local Government GHG reduction guidance and protocolsand protocols

Business GHG reduction guidance and Business GHG reduction guidance and protocolsprotocols

AB 32 Scoping PlanAB 32 Scoping Plan

Land Use Subgroup of the Climate Action Land Use Subgroup of the Climate Action Team (LUSCAT)Team (LUSCAT)

– Working to include GHG considerations in State Working to include GHG considerations in State and Local decision makingand Local decision making

– Defining goals and measuring reductionsDefining goals and measuring reductions

AB 32 Follow-On LegislationAB 32 Follow-On Legislation

AB 2093AB 2093– Would require general plan elements to consider Would require general plan elements to consider

policies that reduce effects of land use on GHG policies that reduce effects of land use on GHG emissions.emissions.

– Deadline: next general plan update, or next housing Deadline: next general plan update, or next housing element update after July 2009element update after July 2009

AB 2596AB 2596– Would require ARB to prepare GHG inventories for Would require ARB to prepare GHG inventories for

cities and counties.cities and counties.– Cities & counties would be allowed to trade emission Cities & counties would be allowed to trade emission

reductions achieved through planning process.reductions achieved through planning process.

California Environmental Quality ActCalifornia Environmental Quality Act

Inform government and public about potential significant Inform government and public about potential significant environmental impacts of proposed activitiesenvironmental impacts of proposed activities

Identify ways to avoid or reduce environmental impactsIdentify ways to avoid or reduce environmental impacts

Prevent significant environmental damage by requiring Prevent significant environmental damage by requiring changes in the project (alternatives and mitigation)changes in the project (alternatives and mitigation)

Environmental review must consider:Environmental review must consider:

– All phases of the projectAll phases of the project

– Direct & reasonably foreseeable indirect effectsDirect & reasonably foreseeable indirect effects

– Short term and long term effects.Short term and long term effects.

Types of Environmental Review Types of Environmental Review DocumentsDocuments

Negative DeclarationNegative Declaration

Mitigated Negative DeclarationMitigated Negative Declaration

Environmental Impact ReportEnvironmental Impact Report

Which one depends on whether Which one depends on whether impacts are potentially significant.impacts are potentially significant.

What Is A “Significant” Impact?What Is A “Significant” Impact?

A potentially substantial, adverse A potentially substantial, adverse change in any physical condition within change in any physical condition within the area affected by the projectthe area affected by the project

Significance may vary with the settingSignificance may vary with the setting Agencies encouraged to publish Agencies encouraged to publish

thresholdsthresholds Substantial evidence must support Substantial evidence must support

determinationdetermination

Cumulative ImpactsCumulative Impacts

A succession of minor projects may A succession of minor projects may cause cumulatively significant impactscause cumulatively significant impacts

Is the project’s contribution Is the project’s contribution “cumulatively considerable”?“cumulatively considerable”?

CEQA Project ApprovalCEQA Project Approval

Lead Agency may approve a project Lead Agency may approve a project with residual significant environmental with residual significant environmental impacts if:impacts if:– Statement of Overriding Considerations states Statement of Overriding Considerations states

that project benefits outweigh harm to the that project benefits outweigh harm to the environment environment

– Record includes evidence supporting Record includes evidence supporting conclusions about project benefitsconclusions about project benefits

Legislative ActionsLegislative Actions

SB 97 CEQA AmendmentSB 97 CEQA Amendment– CA Public Resources Code CA Public Resources Code §§ 21083.05 21083.05

Acknowledges that climate change analysis Acknowledges that climate change analysis should be addressed in the CEQA process.should be addressed in the CEQA process.

Jan 1, 2010: the CA Resources agency must Jan 1, 2010: the CA Resources agency must adopt CEQA Guidelines for addressing GHGs adopt CEQA Guidelines for addressing GHGs developed by the Office of Planning and developed by the Office of Planning and Research.Research.

Legislative ActionsLegislative Actions

SB 97 CEQA AmendmentSB 97 CEQA Amendment– CA Public Resources Code CA Public Resources Code § § 2109721097

Allows projects financed by transportation Allows projects financed by transportation bonds to move forward with limitations on bonds to move forward with limitations on CEQA challenges.CEQA challenges.

Does not protect all public agencies from Does not protect all public agencies from CEQA challenges.CEQA challenges.

SB 97 Legislative AnalysisSB 97 Legislative Analysis

Senate Floor Analysis-Senate Floor Analysis-– ““The analysis of GHG impacts under laws like The analysis of GHG impacts under laws like

CEQA, and its federal counterpart NEPA, is not CEQA, and its federal counterpart NEPA, is not new, nor did it commence with the passage of new, nor did it commence with the passage of the California Global Warming Solutions Act of the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006.”2006.”

– ““confirming that confirming that GHG emissions are a GHG emissions are a significant adverse effectsignificant adverse effect under the [CEQA]” under the [CEQA]”

SB 97 -- LimitationsSB 97 -- Limitations

Leaves most projects vulnerable to Leaves most projects vulnerable to challenge when standards uncertain.challenge when standards uncertain.

Guidelines required only address mitigation.Guidelines required only address mitigation.– Why mitigation?Why mitigation?– Why not the significance threshold?Why not the significance threshold?

Don’t get carried away with excerpt from Don’t get carried away with excerpt from Senate Floor Analysis.Senate Floor Analysis.– Generic statements.Generic statements.– Doesn’t mean every project is significant.Doesn’t mean every project is significant.

Settled CasesSettled Cases

San Bernardino County General Plan casesSan Bernardino County General Plan cases– People of the State of California ex rel. Attorney General Edmund People of the State of California ex rel. Attorney General Edmund

G. Brown v. County of San BernardinoG. Brown v. County of San Bernardino, Case No. CUVSS 700329 , Case No. CUVSS 700329 (San Bernardino Superior Court) (filed April 12, 2007); (San Bernardino Superior Court) (filed April 12, 2007);

– Center for Biological Diversity v. County of San BernardinoCenter for Biological Diversity v. County of San Bernardino, Case , Case No. CIVSS 0700293 (San Bernardino County Superior Court) (filed No. CIVSS 0700293 (San Bernardino County Superior Court) (filed April 11, 2007).April 11, 2007).

Administrative appeal of Conoco Phillips Clean Fuels Administrative appeal of Conoco Phillips Clean Fuels Expansion Project to the Contra Costa Board of Expansion Project to the Contra Costa Board of Supervisors by the People of the State of California ex rel. Supervisors by the People of the State of California ex rel. Attorney General Edmund G. Brown (filed May 18, 2007).Attorney General Edmund G. Brown (filed May 18, 2007).

Global Warming Analysis RequiredGlobal Warming Analysis Required

People of the State of California v. People of the State of California v. County of San BernardinoCounty of San Bernardino

General Plan Amendment to adopt a goal of reducing greenhouse General Plan Amendment to adopt a goal of reducing greenhouse gasesgases

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction PlanGreenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Plan– Inventory of greenhouse gas emissions: Inventory of greenhouse gas emissions:

inventory sources, inventory sources,

past emissions for 1990 levels,past emissions for 1990 levels,

a current baseline, and a current baseline, and

projected emissions for 2020 levelsprojected emissions for 2020 levels

– Target for reductionsTarget for reductions

– ““Feasible” mitigation to reduce greenhouse gas emissionsFeasible” mitigation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

– Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plan will undergo CEQA review Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plan will undergo CEQA review

Appeal of ConocoPhillips Clean Fuels Appeal of ConocoPhillips Clean Fuels Expansion by the People of the State of Expansion by the People of the State of CaliforniaCalifornia

Greenhouse Gas Emissions AuditsGreenhouse Gas Emissions Audits– Auditing all ConocoPhillips California refineries to identify greenhouse Auditing all ConocoPhillips California refineries to identify greenhouse

gas emission sources and reduction opportunities.gas emission sources and reduction opportunities.

Offsetting EmissionsOffsetting Emissions– 70,000 tons of greenhouse gas emissions would be eliminated from a 70,000 tons of greenhouse gas emissions would be eliminated from a

ConocoPhillips facility in Santa Maria (Santa Barbara County),ConocoPhillips facility in Santa Maria (Santa Barbara County),

– $7 million offset program for the Bay Area Air Quality Management $7 million offset program for the Bay Area Air Quality Management District, District,

– $2.8 million for reforestation efforts in California, to sequester of 1.5 $2.8 million for reforestation efforts in California, to sequester of 1.5 million metric tons of greenhouse gases. million metric tons of greenhouse gases.

– $200,000 for restoration of the San Pablo wetlands.$200,000 for restoration of the San Pablo wetlands.

Climate Change AnalysisClimate Change Analysis

1.1. Reference the Scientific and Regulatory Background on Reference the Scientific and Regulatory Background on Climate ChangeClimate Change

2.2. Assess the Project’s Greenhouse Gas EmissionsAssess the Project’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions

3.3. Assess the Impact of Climate Change on the Project and Assess the Impact of Climate Change on the Project and the Project’s Impactsthe Project’s Impacts

4.4. Make a Significance DeterminationMake a Significance Determination

5.5. Analyze and Adopt Alternatives and Mitigation Measures Analyze and Adopt Alternatives and Mitigation Measures to Reduce Impactsto Reduce Impacts

1.1. Scientific and Regulatory Scientific and Regulatory Background on Climate ChangeBackground on Climate Change

Summary of recognized impacts to CA such as Summary of recognized impacts to CA such as impacts to:impacts to:– Wildlife and habitatWildlife and habitat– Water supplyWater supply– Sea levelSea level– WildfireWildfire

Mandatory reductions required under AB 32Mandatory reductions required under AB 32

Governor’s Executive Order S-3-05Governor’s Executive Order S-3-05– 80% below 1990 levels by 205080% below 1990 levels by 2050

2.2. Assess the Project’s Assess the Project’s Greenhouse Gas EmissionsGreenhouse Gas Emissions

Conduct an InventoryConduct an Inventory

Electricity and natural gas usage in buildings; Electricity and natural gas usage in buildings; Vehicle trips generated by the project;Vehicle trips generated by the project; Water supply and transportation to the project; Water supply and transportation to the project; Operation of construction vehicles and machinery; Operation of construction vehicles and machinery; Manufacture and transport of building materials;Manufacture and transport of building materials; Waste disposal, including transport of solid waste and methane Waste disposal, including transport of solid waste and methane

emissions from organics decomposition;emissions from organics decomposition; Process emissions, such as from the production of cement or the Process emissions, such as from the production of cement or the

refining of gasoline; refining of gasoline; ““End use” emissions, such as the burning of the fossil fuels extracted End use” emissions, such as the burning of the fossil fuels extracted

by a production project.by a production project.

2.2. Assess the Project’s GHG Assess the Project’s GHG Emissions -- CounterpointEmissions -- Counterpoint

Avoid methodologies that result in double-Avoid methodologies that result in double-countingcounting– Water supply & transportationWater supply & transportation– Manufacture of building materialsManufacture of building materials– ““End use” emissionsEnd use” emissions

Some projects reallocate or move emissions Some projects reallocate or move emissions rather than produce new emissionsrather than produce new emissions– Retail closer to residential reduces VMTRetail closer to residential reduces VMT

GHG Emissions Analysis is GHG Emissions Analysis is NOT SPECULATIVENOT SPECULATIVE

California Attorney GeneralCalifornia Attorney General– Global Warming & CEQA: Chart of Modeling ToolsGlobal Warming & CEQA: Chart of Modeling Tools

http://ag.ca.gov/globalwarming/ceqa/modeling_tools.phphttp://ag.ca.gov/globalwarming/ceqa/modeling_tools.php California Air Pollution Control Officer’s Association California Air Pollution Control Officer’s Association

(CAPCOA)(CAPCOA)– CEQA & Climate Change: Evaluating and Addressing Greenhouse CEQA & Climate Change: Evaluating and Addressing Greenhouse

Gas Emissions from Projects Subject to CEQA, (Jan. 2008)Gas Emissions from Projects Subject to CEQA, (Jan. 2008) http://www.capcoa.org/http://www.capcoa.org/

California Climate Action RegistryCalifornia Climate Action Registry– General Reporting ProtocolsGeneral Reporting Protocols

http://www.climateregistry.org/tools/protocols/general-reporting-protocolhttp://www.climateregistry.org/tools/protocols/general-reporting-protocol.html.html

Center for Biological DiversityCenter for Biological Diversity– CEQA: On the Front Lines of California’s Fight Against Global CEQA: On the Front Lines of California’s Fight Against Global

Warming (Sept 2007)Warming (Sept 2007) http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/campaigns/ceqa/index.htmlhttp://www.biologicaldiversity.org/campaigns/ceqa/index.html

Is It Speculative? CounterpointIs It Speculative? Counterpoint

CEQA § 15145:CEQA § 15145:

Where the impact is too speculative for Where the impact is too speculative for evaluation, note conclusion and terminate evaluation, note conclusion and terminate discussion.discussion.

Per AB 32, global climate change is not Per AB 32, global climate change is not speculative.speculative.

Impacts of a particular project may Impacts of a particular project may nonetheless be speculative.nonetheless be speculative.

3.3. Assess the Impact of Climate Assess the Impact of Climate Change on the ProjectChange on the Project

““[A]nalyze any significant environmental [A]nalyze any significant environmental effects the project might cause by bringing effects the project might cause by bringing development and people into the area development and people into the area affected.”affected.”– CEQA Guidelines 15126.2(a)CEQA Guidelines 15126.2(a)

Increased threat of wildfire, flooding, or Increased threat of wildfire, flooding, or water scarcitywater scarcity

4.4. Make a Significance DeterminationMake a Significance Determination

Direct Impact? Direct Impact?

• GHGs must be considered a GHGs must be considered a cumulatively significant impactcumulatively significant impact

Greenhouse Gases are Greenhouse Gases are Cumulatively Cumulatively SignificantSignificant

““[t]he impact of greenhouse gases on [t]he impact of greenhouse gases on climate change is precisely the kind of climate change is precisely the kind of cumulative impacts analysis that NEPA cumulative impacts analysis that NEPA requires agencies to conduct.”requires agencies to conduct.” – Center for Biological Diversity v. National Highway Traffic Safety Center for Biological Diversity v. National Highway Traffic Safety

AdministrationAdministration, 508 F.3d 508 (9th Cir. 2007), 508 F.3d 508 (9th Cir. 2007)

““[T]he greater the existing environmental problems are, the [T]he greater the existing environmental problems are, the lower the threshold should be for treating a project's lower the threshold should be for treating a project's contribution to cumulative impacts as significant” contribution to cumulative impacts as significant” – Communities for a Better Environment [2002] 103 Cal.App.4th 120.Communities for a Better Environment [2002] 103 Cal.App.4th 120.

Significance Thresholds NeededSignificance Thresholds Needed

Administrative overload if every project Administrative overload if every project considered significant.considered significant.

No other issue area uses “zero increase”.No other issue area uses “zero increase”. Threshold should be consistent statewide.Threshold should be consistent statewide.

– Impacts are not tied to specific locale.Impacts are not tied to specific locale.– Poor policy to encourage development to Poor policy to encourage development to

gravitate to area with most liberal thresholdsgravitate to area with most liberal thresholds Threshold should be set by state agency Threshold should be set by state agency

with expertise, not cities & counties.with expertise, not cities & counties.

Potential Significance ThresholdsPotential Significance Thresholds Flat amount of CO2e tons per yearFlat amount of CO2e tons per year Comparison to facility’s 1990 emissionsComparison to facility’s 1990 emissions Comparison to AB32 reductionsComparison to AB32 reductions

– % reduction required overall% reduction required overall– % reduction by sector% reduction by sector

Performance standardsPerformance standards– Benchmark emissions per unit outputBenchmark emissions per unit output– Green building standardsGreen building standards

HybridHybrid

5. 5. Analyze and Adopt Alternatives Analyze and Adopt Alternatives and Mitigation Measuresand Mitigation Measures

Local or regional planLocal or regional plan– General Plan, Regional Transportation PlanGeneral Plan, Regional Transportation Plan

Individual projectIndividual project

Mitigation frameworkMitigation framework

Reducing emissions from the projectReducing emissions from the project– Reducing energy required by the project including Reducing energy required by the project including

alternatives to the projectalternatives to the project

Generate energy from renewable sourcesGenerate energy from renewable sources

Measures to offset emissionsMeasures to offset emissions– Local offsets must be analyzed and incorporatedLocal offsets must be analyzed and incorporated

Feasible Mitigation:Feasible Mitigation:“Win-Win” Greenhouse Gas reductions“Win-Win” Greenhouse Gas reductions

LEED certificationLEED certification– Costs and marketabilityCosts and marketability

Solar retrofittingSolar retrofitting– Southern California EdisonSouthern California Edison– SunEdisonSunEdison

Density Bonuses for Transportation Density Bonuses for Transportation Oriented DesignOriented Design

Mitigation Measures – Mitigation Measures – Further ThoughtsFurther Thoughts

Compare cost effectivenessCompare cost effectiveness– ““Popular” measures not necessarily produce the Popular” measures not necessarily produce the

greatest reductions.greatest reductions. Local measures may provide attractive co-Local measures may provide attractive co-

benefits.benefits. Purchase of credits likely to result in Purchase of credits likely to result in

offsetting twice as AB32 is implemented.offsetting twice as AB32 is implemented. Will CEQA mitigations be creditable Will CEQA mitigations be creditable

“voluntary early reductions under AB 32?“voluntary early reductions under AB 32?