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PAPOR 2018
Edward ‘Paul’ Johnson
Voter’s Love Hate Relationship with Political Advertising
12/06/2018
2
Political Advertisement Persuades by Informing
Who is MJ Hegar?
Political Advertising Tells the Story
Career/Military
• Air Force Pilot• Earned Purple Heart• Fought California Fires• Worked in Health Care
Personal
• Abusive Father• Mother of Children
Beliefs
• Women’s Rights• Listen to Voters not Lobbyists
Attacks
• John Carter doesn’t Listen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi6v4CYNSIQ
3
When does Political Advertising Mislead or Misinform?
Political Advertising Tends to Tell One Side
Democracy Needs Informed Voters
Study Objectives
1. Does lack of information on candidates decrease voting?
2. Would early or absentee voters vote differently with late-breaking information on candidates?
3. How do voters use media and political advertisements to inform voting decisions?
― Federal Offices― State Offices― Local Offices― Ballot Propositions
4. Do the benefits of political advertising outweigh its negative aspects?
5. Does passive measurement back up stated influences?
4
Our Study Design
Methods
Recruit 450 Panelist from RN-SSI Online App Panel permissioned for
• Metering activity on websites and applications (SamplePlus Meter)
• Tracking geolocation visits (SamplePlus Location)
• Matching to third party voter files (SamplePlus Voter)
• Follow-up survey engagement
322 Completed 5 minute follow-up survey after election day
151 Matched to Voter File from Aristotle
47 Passively Metered week of election by RealityMine
Limitations
• Not necessarily representative
• Relatively small sample size
• Not in the moment at the polling location
5
Study Results
6
While Many Stated Voters Not Matched to Voter Record Files, Propensity Model Directionally Accurate
16% 19%30%
19%18%
16%
18%8%
0%
47%55% 54%
VOTED BEFORE ELECTION DAY (N=57) VOTED ON ELECTION DAY (N=228) DIDN'T VOTE (N=37)
Stated Voting by Voter File Propensity Score
Unlikely to Vote (0-3) Somewhat Likely to Vote (4-6) Likely to Vote (7-10) Not Matched with Voter File
Mat
ched
No
t Mat
ched
7
Lack of Information not Directly Responsible for Not Voting
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Lack of Information
Other
Transportation
Registration Process
Interest
Top Reasons for Not Voting*
*N=37 Non-Voters
8
Having the Right Candidate Connection Matters
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Vo
te T
hro
ugh
Mo
bile
De
vice
A C
and
idat
e I C
ared
Ab
ou
t
Easi
er V
ote
r R
egis
trat
ion
Pro
cess
Easi
er A
cces
s to
Vo
ting
Loca
tio
n
A F
rie
nd
or
Fam
ily
Mem
ber
to G
o W
ith
Sho
rte
r Li
nes
to V
ote
A C
lose
r El
ecti
on
(Can
did
ates
Po
llin
g C
lose
Toge
ther
)
A R
em
ind
er o
n M
y P
ho
neTh
rou
gh S
oci
al M
edia
or
Text
Vo
te a
t P
lace
of
Emp
loym
ent
Exte
nd
ed V
oti
ng
Ho
urs
Top Ways to Convince Non-Voters to Vote*
Yes Maybe No
*N=37 Non-Voters
9
While Most Early Voters Wouldn’t Change Vote, Political Advertisements #1 Reason for Wanting to Change
74%
5%
14%
7%
21%
Absentee/Early Voters Desire to Change Vote*
Wouldn't Change Vote Don't Know Change Vote from Political Ad Change Vote from Other Sources
*N=57 Absentee/Early Voters
10
A Little Over Half of Partial Ballots from Lack of Information
90%
4%
5%
1%
10%
Completeness of Voter’s Ballots*
Completed Full Ballot Didn't Like Either Candidate Lack of Information Other
*N=285 Voters
11
Only Small Differences at Local vs Federal Level for Information Sources
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Federal Offices State Offices Local Offices Propositions
Active Actions Taken by Voters to Be Informed
Government Voter Guide Online News Websites Candidate Websites
Talk to Family or Friends Talk to Campaign Worker Social Media
*N=285 Voters
12
Most (84%) Saw Political Ads in 2018
Close to Half (47%) Votes Influenced by
Political Ads
TV and Social Media Top Channels
18%
31%
32%
36%
50%
67%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Newspapers or Magazines
Radio
Online Websites
Billboard or Yard Sign
Social Media
Television
Political Advertising Seen
*N=322 Respondents
52% 21% 15% 6% 3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Most Influential Political Ad Channel
Television Social Media Websites Billboards & Yardsigns Newspapers & Magazines Radio Other
13
No Indications of Significant Political Advertising Consumption in Passive Measurements
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
App Usage
Games -Card/Board/Casino
Games -Puzzle/Trivia
Utilities
Lifestyle
Media & Video
Entertainment
Shopping
Communication
Social Networking
Search 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
YouTube Categories
Gaming
Howto & Style
TV Shows
News & Politics
Music
Science &Technology
Film & Animation
People & Blogs
Education
Entertainment
*N=47 Respondents
14
No Indications of Significant Political Advertising Consumption in Passive Measurements
*N=47 Respondents
Top 30 Non-Survey Website Domains Visited
Domain Duration Domain Duration
www.facebook.com 28,696 collector.stats.socialquantum.ru 3,768
www.google.com 21,338 www.amazon.com 3,317
www.peapod.com 15,014 t2.beanstalkdata.com 3,315
s.youtube.com 13,013 news-assets.apple.com 3,280
lithium.facebook.com 10,076 survey.vipvoice.com 3,261
adservice.google.com 8,553 sc-fb-lb.playkot.com 3,120
lt501.tritondigital.com 6,848 ups.managehr.com 2,788
www.pornhub.com 6,436 uk.focusvision.com 2,672
pt.ispot.tv 6,374 ml.t-mobile.com 2,628
m.facebook.com 5,462 www.blowoutforums.com 2,521
r.mintvine.com 5,391 m.funsubstance.com 2,334
webstats.perk.com 4,724 Platform-lookaside.fbsbx.com 2,194
www.jobcase.com 4,073 www.brandinvitation.com 2,193
milwaukee.craigslist.org 3,877 www.tickls.com 1,982
www.californiapsychics.com 3,806 www.shorewest.com 1,683
15
Public Leans Against Political Advertising but Closer than You Might Think
*N=322 Respondents
Nancy believes that political advertising is useful and relevant to her as it gives her essential knowledge about the candidates, especially at the local level. It also helps those who might not have served before or might not be famous to get their important messages to the voters.
Drew believes that political advertising is biased and contains more misinformation than useful information.
It is a tool of the rich special interest groups to manipulate what people
think and polarize the public. He believes that we would be
better off if people just didn’t pay any attention to these
advertisements.
?
