Voting and Elections

3 November, 2008

What’s at Stake Presidency House of Representatives

All 435 seats Democrats currently have a 15 seat majority (233 seats) and

could increase their majority by 20-30 seats. U.S. Senate

35 seats in the U.S. Senate Democrats currently have a 1 seat majority 23 of the contested seats are held by Republicans. Democrats need to pick up 9 seats to stop filibuster

Governors’ Races 11 states

State legislative races Statewide ballot measures

Options for Electing the President Congress chooses the president State legislatures choose the president President elected by popular vote Electoral College

How it works Each state was allocated a number of Electors equal to the

number of U.S. Senators (always 2) plus the number of U.S. Representatives (which changes)

The manner of choosing the electors was left to the individual state legislators. By 1836 all states (except for South Carolina) choose electors by popular vote (plurality rules).

The candidate with a majority of electoral votes is elected president

In the event that no candidate wins a majority, the U.S. House of Representatives would choose from the top five contenders. Each state could cast only one vote. An absolute majority is required

The 2000 Presidential ElectionBush 271; Gore 266(270 needed to win)

The 2004 Presidential ElectionBush 286 EV (51%)/ Kerry 252 EV (48%)270 EV needed to win

A change in Ohio (with 20 electoral votes) would have given Kerry the presidency even though Bush would have received a majority of the popular vote

Unequal Representation

Source: Robert A. Dahl, How Democratic is the American Constitution?

Adjusting for State Population

The Tracking Polls as of November 3 Obama 51, McCain 44 (DemCorps 10/30=11/2) Obama 51, McCain 43 (NBCWSJ 11/1-2) Obama 52, McCain 42 (Gallup 10/31-11/2) Obama 54, McCain 41 (CBS 10/30-11/1) Obama 54, McCain 43 (ABCPost 10/29-11/1)

Link to CNN map

Will Obama have coattails? Typically about 90 percent of House incumbents are

reelected In the Senate, 78.6 percent have won reelection in the

postwar period Even in years very unfavourable to one of the parties, a

large majority win. In 1994, the Democrats worst year since 1946, 84 percent won. In 2006, 87 percent of the Republican incumbents in the House were returned to office.

Congressional Races to Watch Open seats (where no incumbent is running) are typically

the most competitive U.S. Senate (5 seats all held by Republicans); Virginia, New

Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska, Idaho, U.S. House (32 seats); 26 held by Republicans. However,

many of those retiring represent safe Republican districts.

Senate Races to Watch Nevertheless, of the 23 Republican Senate seats, 7 are

competitive; 1 is a tossup (Minnesota); and 3 are leaning Republican (Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi)

Only 1 Democratic seat (Louisiana is competitive) See Map of Senate Races

When the polls close… add 5 hours)

The Florida Disaster Florida recount (link to Univ. of Chicago study) The punch card voting system Design of the palm beach ballot

The Butterfly Ballot

Evidence of problems in Palm Beach

Voter Turnout U.S. turnout in comparative perspective Lower for congressional elections than Presidential

elections Decline in voter turnout How low is it? Does it matter? The role of age and education

Turnout in Comparative Perspective

See also Fiorina et al. Table 6.1, p.140

Trends in Voter Turnout

Voting is the most common form of political participation Many people also talk about politics and try to persuade

others to vote Very few participate in any other specific way.

The U.S. in Comparative Perspective

Source: Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), Module 2, 2004

Why is voter turnout so low? Electoral system Voter attitudes Lack of convenience Difficulty of registration

Electoral College How it works

Majority (270) of the 538 electoral votes to win Past results

2004 election (Bush 286/Kerry 251) 2000 election (Bush 271/Gore 266)

States to watch Pollster.com