Voting for Congress

The Statics and Dynamics of Party Ideology

Learning Objectives

• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election.

• Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed.

WHY PARTIES MOVE?

Party Movement

• When do parties change ideologies

• When do the diverge?

• When do they resemble each other

Where To Build a Bar in Central Texas?

Here… in Bastrop

Or Here?

6th Street

Why Do you See These two across the Street From Each Other?

Why Does This, Appear next to This?

Why Do We Have?

THESE STRATEGIES APPLY TO POLITICAL PARTIES

Lets Apply this to Ideology

• Here is a distribution with 0 representing policy liberalism, and 100 representing policy conservativism

• A and B represent political parties

Where Parties Should Go in A Normal Distribution

They Move To the Center

Why go to the Center

• You Cant leapfrog the other party

• More voters

• At what point do you stop moving to the Center?

When do you stop?

The Problem of Being Too Moderate

• A Third Party could grab your flank

• Too many of your people stay home

STAYING PUT

What About A Bimodal Distribution?

Party Polarization

One Hump is often Bigger 2010

In 2008 it was the other way

MULTI PARTY SYSTEMS

Polygamy

A polymodal System

A Polymodal System

• In PR systems, 1 party for Each hump

• How might this differ in a Single Member District System?

In Germany

Party Movement in Multiparty Systems

• Stay Put!• Distinguish yourself from your enemies

How our Parties Deal with the Humps

• Social and Economic Conservatives (within the GOP)

• The Many Humps within the Democratic Party

WHY DO WE HAVE A TWO PARTY SYSTEM

How Many Parties in Majority Elections

• Duverger’s Law

– Mechanical Effect

– Psychological Effect

The Kinds of Parties

• Those who are there to win

• Those that are there to influence

How many parties in a PR system?

• As many parties as humps exist

• Depends on the threshold

NEW PARTIES

Getting New Parties in Our System

• Existing parties cant jump over each other

• New Parties come from– Between the gap– On the fringe

What New parties Want to Do

Win elections Threaten Existing Parties

How can Third Parties Win?

A Shift In Franchise…. The electorate changes!

Splitting the Vote

Parties Will often Try To be Ambiguous, Why?

Voting For Congress

Goals of Congressperson

• The Primary Goal is to Get Elected

• The Next goal is to get re-elected(Mayhew, 1974)

PARTISANSHIP AND TURNOUT

Lower turnout in Congressional Elections

• Lower Excitement

• Lower Salience

• Lower Information

Partisanship is Most Important

• The biggest factor in Congressional election

• Even in open seat elections

Safe Seats

• Seat Maximization through Gerrymandering

• Majority Minority Districts

Residential Self Selection

INCUMBENCYMajor Factor 2

Incumbency

• Can Eclipse Partisanship in some places

• A resource that provides many benefits

Incumbency

• The incumbent dominates the discourse

• The incumbent has the advantages

• It is the Incumbent’s seat to lose

Incumbent Benefit - Money

• Attract Money at Higher Rates

• The War Chest

Incumbent Benefit- Name Recognition

• We Vote For Who We Know

• What can Incumbents Do?

Benefit 3 – Weak Challengers

• Run against Losers

• Scare off Good Challengers

Lose<Not Run<Win

Voluntary Retirements

• When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election.

• Why people Retire?

HOW INCUMBENTS CAN LOSE

Stop Playing the Game

• Get too Old

• Become inattentive

• Scandal

Strategic Challengers can Alter This

• They run when national trends favor their party

• They have local advantages as well

• They also have the most to lose!

How Strategic Challengers Change Campaigns

• Attract Money

• Can turn National Issues into Local Ones

• Are Quality Challengers as Well

What is a Quality Challenger

• A person who has formerly/currently held elective office

• Name Recognition, Access to Money, a constituuency

INCUMBENCY IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE

House Incumbency

Senate Incumbency

House vs Senate Incumbents

• Why are Senators more vulnerable?