under
Approval
does
of Civil Defense.
FOREWORD
The purpose of this volume is to provide and operating officials
with information about possible patterns of
social
This
information
a group of
of the
sive nuclear attack, attack effects are
created and expressed on the many levels of
visible
a
requires a large range
mation about especially the social processes and problems which may
be
created
Bu t to make such information
available to planning and operating officials,
the analyst of attack effects must find some way of dealing with two interacting kinds
of uncertainties: (1) the limited experience with actual
effects of nuclear weapons
on human society, and (2) the nresent state of knowledge in the social sciences,
which does not permit the full description or prediction
of
se t of social systems formed
by society. Th e analytic difficulties which result from these limitations must be
faced squarely. Facing up to these difficulties requires the development of the
conceptual and analytic tools which
will suggest interrelations among
complex society, bu t
institutional spheres which reciprocally shape specific acts of behavior. Post-
attack events as well as the life of pre-attack society
must be seen as resulting
from several levels of determinants. Since the proper
statement
not
generally, of attempts to
this
volume necessarily address many unresolved problems in the social sciences.
Throughout the book, there is a concern with the meanings of knowledge in the
social sciences and with the varieties of methods
available
recommendations about concrete
fundamental
broad categories
of requirements
recommenda-
take note
getting beyond
in
civil
defense.
a
faced if the general
short of providing
the unstable social
attack. These must come later, after fur-
ther study of
a number of
These
of
well as the
with
kin, labor force and manpower policies, and decisions about post-attack popu-
lation
policies
These
interacting sets
effects and responses after
of looking
at civil defense --- a way which implies a society-wide framework for
managing society- wide
dictates that
not on the vulnerability of social structure.
From varied, discrete
con-
tributors
to
tions among
effects
suggest how the social
system may
be vulnerable in particular ways to nuclear attack. At present, however, these
inferences cannot be comnbined into a tested general
theoretical
formulation
systen) .
social
scientists,
these
dimensions
and
variables
can
human actors
the kinds
In the second part,
social
The
the evidence which
would follow a massive
attack. Panic
tractable to advance
really a
events beyond
behavior in society.
would occur, and to know
whether it is of high priority or low priority among the
many
social
effects of attack that might occur an d which might receive administra-
tive attention, it is necessary to extend the analytic question beyond attempts to
predict
Th e social
of
behavioral
determinants.
Th e principal theme of not only the chapter but also the book thus emerges:
to know the ways in which individual items of behavioral
response to attack are the
resultants of
the individual and his
processes of be-
havior'al ordering occur as a result of the functioning of a number
of systems be-
behavior.
might follow attack,
hehavior. It is particularly necessary to know how these systems
are manifested
beyond
,up
Ifh.
call
it be applied to attempts to show the interrelations among possible
klnr .-
to
e
mIs
tr
a1 1t-VieW of so()tlLc atvdilable (cof(i ptual tchrniiquts fo r answ'ring these
quest )t•i, it
heast
order
the general social systhmn shloiffl
he (Ii lployed. This model
should
,tipnhasizo, the ranges and liiits of p)hition( cna; a
present, it. is impossible to construct a model which strictly det ertmtines individual
behavioirs or
of viewing
the social systein model which
.is used is to consider it as being at e.ast partially
a inetapho r for society.
In the second main part of the chapter, the properrti s
of this m
etapho'-
model of the social system are used to outline the dimensions of society within
whi.
sponses can
viewed only as visible behaviors or visible characteristics of group
and
aggregates, they can be shown to be the result of a
process of hierarchical
in
understanding
effects and responses from
different
social
to effects
concrete
patterns
of behavior are translated to other levels of the total set
of
fo r
and understand the social effects of
nucleal
take a societv -wi]d, perspective and to develop "societal
criterla". Th e whole se of processes and states of the social systeml becomles the
iN
social
mtl'
itaýAlng
society
car attack
1t' use massive attack
A i' ri'i;tn
some
specific
projections
of
aittac'k
assumiptions. Thie con-
and social
ic i t-s de.signed to deal with themn must be framed within a
society-wide analytic
perspectives for civill
out-
defense and emergency
feasible. The basic
of organizational
divert(ed from
social system.
F'ivc (rite r.l.., Issays: Chapt e rs 11 firough VLI III the seconld Part
of
thle
constructing a
general orlienta-
social systeio,
fori social effects of nuclear
attack. Ii constrast, the over'riding concer'n in 1).ýrt 11 is to review a number
of
specific,
bout
sectors of society atter attack.
Consequently, the propositions developed
nor
best judgments about what will be important.
As
determined after
attack.
In
tile content
tors to
in
writing
on
"The
is
of complex organizations,
institutions, and cultural
and Recuperation
from Nuclear Attack" in Chapter III, David Hleer is dealing with
phenomena
on the level of "ecological system
20n
the
groundrules
which
guided
tile
wri
ing
of
th
"se
essays
and
on
their
under nuclear
attack, see "Appendix to Chapter
1, On Reading the Five Essays in Part 11", below, pp. 185-203.
xl
target
economic insti-
"adaptive"
economic activity of
which would
are formidable
tasks when
Smelser venture
toward the
of
general issues of
attack.
be absolutely
of effects on
havioral
ordering
metaphor
institutional
to
scientific-analytic
or the creation
possible
5
The
serial
numbers
in
parentheses
after
each
principle
in
this
list
are
those
1%
tion in desired directions is a policy decision,
not directly derivable
existing realities.
(A. 6)
purposes (A. and A. 7.1);
9. Further
(principle) that while society under
stress of massive disaster can
be seen as
only imperfectly understood, nevertheless (hypothesis) each domain
has a
within which decisions affecting the longer
term "viability" of that
10. Using
the
principle
events in
one institutional domain or social structural sector may be more
critical to survival and
adaptation than events occurring
are identifiable
which
stitutional mobilization and viability, within a given domain. A
final se t is that the greater the structural complexity and inter-
dependence of a society, the more quickly will social damage be
translated throughout
fo r re -
capacities ---
once
these
capacities can be organized. (A. 8. 1 - A. 8. 3)
11.
society:
have more than one function in planning fo r and
managing emergency.
vivid as a breaker of
myths, but it may be important to evaluate its
significance as an item of additive knowledge ---
unless, of course,
(A. 10)
the
shelter
and insti-
shelter
system,
behavioral
clearly not only
the general consequences
of any shelter
but also the way
in which positing a shelter system provides the analyst with coherent clues about
xv
come requirements
attack social
more relevantly and more effectively. But it should be continu-
ally noted that the purpose here
is
social world.
show
creates the
levels of behavioral determinants in
society.
attack social inventory which
shelter concept is put in the form of an operating
system,
post-attack behavior
and from
which derive
Other system concepts
of effects.
As a shelter system functions to shield one sub-population and to
define a
se t of social foci fo r the other sub-population
less
of post-attack
social responses. This sequence branches out in complexity over time.
At the
beginning of post-attack time (in the Warning and Impact Period),
the
individual
system
individual systems
Period, the social
the individual system in
Reorganization Period of the post-shelter
phase of post-attack life, the combination
of individual system and social
system
now raises
events in the ecological system of society to the status of critical determinants.
Finally, as longer
term recovery begins,
raise events and effects at the level of the cul-
tural system of society to their maximum importance in determining the
kind of
society
that will exist in the future. Thus, within the time frame imposed by the
shelter
among the determinants of
stepped progression, there
process
of post-
attack social
organ-
have heretofore been difficult to place in
a common
frame. Within
of sets of deter-
minants emerges first, because
the primary purpose
of a shelter
system is to protect individuals, and it will be the behavior
of
many
ses
period - - - are already being determined in part
by the capacities
uals in shelters constitute, in the aggregate, a population with
specific
upon
system. (B. 1.2)
this present
ing characteristics
preliminary
Emergence.
to critical
salience during
for social organi-
for coping with
physical threats, allocating
social
are
to
gence
2. 2. One of the
first requirements
convergence
tem requirements of the actual Shelter
Period, individuals will
and
by
still govern
critical social
effects of
to
meet
individual
needs
as
a)
changes
into
be trans-
during Reorganization. Second, critical
occur on the level of the ecological system during Reorganiza-
tion must depend
2.4. a. Among
that will probably be created by the transition
from Shelter to
mood has
dwindled, that pre-attack systems of reward and status be re-
instituted in
attack on irdividuals, and that government allow latitude for
dissent amid
and personal control
beyond previous ex-
perience. (B. 4. 1) For each of these potential sources of
conflict,
there is a demand for social policy and social control.
2.4.
b. The attainment of economic viability (see Chapter
IV) will be one of the most urgent requirements levied upon
the
structural-institutional
3. The requirements
critical during
the
themselves as a
require a number
main-
ranges and requirements of
a system whose primary function is maintenance and a system
which
physical environment, and, if necessary, managed as
a
population.
Period for
the
in the Reorganization
Period. (B. 5)
for recovery are the popu-
lation of the society. Not
only must the population
for the jobs of an industrial society,
but the development and use of these traits must be sustained by
particular policies based
popu-
lation. One of the striking possible traits of the American popu-
lation after
this shifted dependency
management
placement of orphans with
cre-
ated
Such a plan
systems
which
 
success in solving a number of organizational
problems at the level of the social system will determine the ca-
pacity of the ecological
4. While
at
all
the effects of shared
values on responses to
does
planning until the
total
attack can be discov-
assessed, as they have worked to redefine the cultural sys-
tem. This
will occur
this
process may begin in value conflicts over the degree of
government
state is unlikely. (B. 7 and B. 7.1 -1
B.
7.3)
As a total system, post-attack society can probably be managed
only through
domains of determinants and particular
ranges of critical decision and
control. Thus, there are inherent indeterminacies in the relations among various
programs,
the sequences of
possible post-attack social effects. At any point in post-attack time, the admini-
strator
and effects and
options and ambiguous
choice.
If civil defense planners and
administrators are to respond
and propositions which
have just been listed, then they
must be able to have these findings reformulated in terms of policy and action
re -
reformulations in spite of
are
social science.
even
while
of this book have been (1) upon
trying to show
approached,
XI
x. . . .. . . . . . . .
administrators
effects,
"political"
effects,
"cultural"
effects,
"psychological"
effects,
and
"demographic"
effects.
social criteria for
criteria would
longer meaningful
lives
cost-effectiveness"
therefore needed.
The development
is
planning and
Lant are data on
group characteristics,
systems and their
need to understand
emer-
gency
operations
organizations
systems to
deal with
the social effects of nuclear attack may be applied to a radically new
conception of civil defense in
a society
may be
vulnerable to disasters which occur because of failures in the
complex
system. Such "failures"
range from massive physical failures - - - as in the Northeast Power
Failure of
November, 1965 - - -
functions of civil
aging such "systemic"
and operate
sidering the social
and
practical
basis
defense
mission.
of "systemic disaster"
seven statements, the work of the social scientist ends, and
the work of the policy-maker,
systems-designer, and
individuals to decide whether policy and action will, in fact,
be guided by
these statements, and whether, in fact, these statements will be re-
flected in the goals
I
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Many individuals contribute in many ways to a volume of this scope and
ambition. Of the persons who would rightfully
be acknowledged in a full listing,
the many scholars and
should
in each chapter. In
list all the individuals
those individuals,
in person, the
For every volume,
its structure and content. Without them,
the book
might
editor's
happy
to a
special group.
dictates a different
dedicated
projected
procedures which
had originally
research
funds
to
stability imposed by an attempt to write
a long, analytic book. These
adaptations
were hard to achieve. Without them, the contributors to this
book could never have
administrative contributions, Peter Nordlie
also helped in initially stating the approaches and concepts that went into particular
essays
in this volume. I am indebted to him fo r many hours
of
a group of
of
the way as we imposed the requirements inherent
in
of research contracts
research organizations.
The preparation of this volume was supported by funds from the Systems
Evaluation Division, Research
contributors,
was required
the sponsors we had, it was possible to subordinate
short-term urges
payoffs to longer-
to examine what we
defining and managing post-attack
society. The
continuing vision and support of Ralph Garrett of the Office of Civil Defense were
especially
important
During the writing of the various
chapters in this volume,
California,
I would like to acknowledge the early support and con-
tinuing assistance
and sometimes
he continues to
A number of individuals
Although
many
people
might
thank Leon
Santa
valuable
possible Soviet and American political and
administra
t
to discuss the
than they
know, Scott
University have given
me many opportun-
ities to test
the ideas of this volume within the disciplines imposed by empirical
social research.
A volume
vast accumulation
of disparate
then applying it
required the skills
of a number of very hardworking research as-
sistants. I would like to note especially the work of Mrs. Debbie
Oakley, who
she efficiently assist in the literature
review, but she provided
ordinating supplementary
to both
of the
in the book, David S. Miller went far beyond the
require-
would feel more satisfied with his
under-
in addition to whatever scientific merit it may possess.
I
would
the
Office
fo r
number
I deeply
appreciated his willingness to interrupt his own demanding day to meet
our needs
man-
uscript
enthusiasm and patience, Mrs.
Sisson did many of the early pages. Later. Mrs. Julia
Walter
and
Mrs.
Angela
Steves assisted in the typing of several chapters which were, in effect,
monographs in their
West.
only
the
of
have my special thanks.
would end now
group.
the targets of the vexations
five men who were thinking and writing about the problrms of nuclear
war. As
this is a difficult scientific task, made more difficult by
the
emotional
overtones. Few who write on this subject are not in some way affected
by
it.
I
I thank those
who are close to us for the contributions only they
could make.
VI
("The
Social
Dimen-
sions
of
in the School of Public Health,
Harvard
University.
the
Government in
the U.
Political-Administrative
Dimensions
............................... xxviii
........ 5
"Panic",
of Hierarchical
community
ordering and closure
......... 65
.............. 82
as Entities
Behavioral Determinants
Concepts, Events, and Discriminable
is Known ......................................... 141
Science Analysis
177
Institutions and the Phases of Post-Attack Time
......... 195
............... 281
Skill
311
Questions of Methodology ..............................
Analysis
342
342
Dominance of National over
............
..........
Ideal Markets ......
35 1
the Post-Attack
..........
of
Viability .................................................
387
Technological
of
419
to
Effective
Control .............................................
419
and
Institutional
Means
for
Institutions ....................
459
xxxv
....................... 463
Recovery" ............. 471
Method
and Soviet
Compared
............... 513
Long-Term
Political
Recovery .........................
520
Preciction
the
Analysis
Dependent
Society
in the Study
Comparative
Analysis .................................
605
The
Analysis .............................................
606
S. D. Vestermark, Jr ............................ 659
The
674
The
Variable
Salience
706
Atomic-
Table
1-2
Fictory
Responses in Atomic-Bombed Areas and Rest
of
Table 1-4 Factors
by Region,
291
Both Sexes of the
by
the Popu-
lation 2.,
by Urban Location
the
61
Figure
1-5
A
Physical
Aggregate Model for
Union
274
with
Proportion
Major Metropolises (Cities
or Urban Configurations
275
Proportion of
277
Fatalities among a
286
xlii
I
Figure IV-1 Success
Capital"
V 45 8
Classes of
Social
Analysis
600
Figure
of
681
Constraints on a
I
V
e
1t
the
people
near Mainz. At this synod a heresy was brought forward
by a
of the
Church remained
was ill
its way
against the
the re -
mainder withdrew,
much humiliated,
heathen
in
strength;
on
that
same day there was heard a great deal of thunder
and a mighty
following summer an all too great heat of the
sun
heathen glistened;
enough for
AD)
forced to live on horse
meat.
his son;
For he today
S', ' 111
First,
the huynan experience with the effects of nuclear weapons has beer
limited to sharply
controlled field test situations, in the twenty years since the
I
the
1945
Japanese explosions horrifying in themselves, the fact remains that there has
been no experience with nuclear attacks aimed simultaneously
at several metropoli-
society. Thus, extrapolations
socia!
life have an inherent and as yct unknown
degree of indeterminacy.
derived from em-
evidence.
sciences does not
permit the full description or prediction of many complex events resulting from
the interactions among
Hluman Resources Research Office,
Human Resources
development of external conditions
the salience of group
attrition,
or
in a
the onset of
and fre-
toward panic, as
awareness
of a personal danger erupts in members of the group, individuals
perceive
diminishing.
will
Note that the primary
reference of this description
this model
to ask how adequately
occur
only
physical and social
the mass population
composed of varying
in panic flight; other groupings
may represent individuals
engaged in organized,
analytic levels to which
the Civil Defense Dialogue", Journal of
Conflict Resolution, IX, 2 (June,
1965), pp. 278-280.
sudden electric power failure which covered
thousands
United States during
the night of
bombing
mediate aftermath of the attack. A Ninth
Grade boy, in a ftiroshima Third Grade
in 1945, writes:
the
I went
behind the house. Five
time I noticed
nail or something when the
house
collapsed.
(Footnote 6,cotinued
over thirteen
According
to
Times
"nearly
for
edition of
the Times,
the blackout provided. "Panic" and other forms of social disorder
appeared to be
strikingly infrequent. On the other hand, there was lavish re-
porting of adaptive
citizens in directing
Incidents of panic
the classic conditions:
(Ibid. , p. 37,
section
when
police
(Ibid., p. 37,
from a
vantage
point outside the blackout area of the Northeast, he noted instances later
in the evening
constrained to specu-
It-seemed
varying levels at which
be organized, and that they
were surprised when no panic
occurred. In fact, other users of the radio medium may have alleviated some
of the possible
taken to remedy
history and human
that
some
turn out to
did not occur. It may also
be noteworthy
that after
generally
even-tempered
responses
fleeing
toward
whose
From the end
of Eba Park.
wounds, some
farther and were seated at the roadside with vacant faces.
While we were going along
the embankment, a muddy
chilly began
to fall.
Around the
of household
out, but there was
nook
and
burned,
a
ill. Many had been near the
heart
of the city and in their efforts to flee managed
to get
only as
far as
represented shelter
and a place of refuge. They came as an avalanche and
overran
the
hospital.8
estate was
(New York:
Press,
believed
a center
of coolness
secure;
because of
an irresistable,
hide
under
the
leaves.
9
Beyond their human poignance and tragedy, what do these accounts tell
about the social impact of panic behavior in Hiroshima? In relation to other
responses which were made in both
the short run and
long run following attack,
have several levels of meaning.
9
John
Hersey,
Hiroshima
(New
York:
Alfred
A.
Knopf,
1963),
47.
Later
in
this account of events at Asano Park, Hersey describes an outburst
of
disorganized behavior:
Early in the afternoon, the fire swept into the woods of
Asano Park. The first Mr. Tanimoto knew
of it was when,
great
he saw the fire,
not badly hurt come
LaSalle close to
and then joined Tanimoto's volunteers. Mr. Tanimoto
sent some to look for buckets and basins and told others
to beat
the burning underbrush with their clothes; when
utensils were at hand, he formed a bucket chain from one
of the pools in the rock gardens. The team fought the fire
for more than two hours, and gradually
defeated the
the park pressed closer
the unfortunates who were
driven into
Methodist School,
In his careful
analysis of existing
on group reactions to the bombings
at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Jants cites this report by Hersey of
the fear at the
only example of "group panic or near-panic" that he
could
the Hiroshima atomic
disaster which were
available to him. Irving L. Janis, Air War and Emotional Stress (New
York:
panic behavior
as one of the centrally defining
traits
of
the
made
to the Hiroshima and Nagasaki attacks. Within just the accounts given here, it is
clear that panic was
either in groups at a given mornent
or in an individual
Ninth Grade boy recalls that he washed his wound "at
the
the
garden",
even as he was about to join a fleeing group. The doctor notes that "Others,
from
hospital". Some of the individuals hiding in Asano Park
hid there, Hersey reports,
would bomb only buildings". There are many evidences of order
in the Hiroshima
special
reconstructions, Janis concludes:
panic, see Peter G. Nordlie and Robert
D. Popper, Social
of the Physical Damage
The present
evidence;
the
dis-
answer be If "panic" is defined
in terms
behavior, we
such a way .... We also know that there were at
least a
when viewed in
their
atomic disaster, when so many people are in a
state
of acute excitement, it is to be expected that the
threshold for uncontrolled, disorganized would
generally be much lower than normal. When obvious
escape
to attain
negative consequences
typical
touched off by a multiplicity of threatening
circum-
The available evidence suggests that there proba-
bly
was
survivors at
the flaming
were
a fairly high level of ego
control and act in a way
that maximized their chances
review of
the
light
of
disorganized behavior
occurred in
disasters, but it is
the hundreds
explosions.
11
characteristic which occurs widely
element in the social
an ov, -ly restrictive way of de-
fining
population
visible response.
at points
local
environmental
boundaries,
is conceivable that in the future,
relatively
have multiple
effects through-
out a
panic
degree of multiple
be pro-
"significance" may be
which led
fire
oblit, rated, they
tone of public
business
as
post-attack
demography
and social
arcuis marginal
to target
inferred that if more evidence were
available
Nagasaki are compared with Japanese cities that received conventional
bombings
bombings?
comparative social
and the difficulty of individually and
comparatively
segregating
and
describing
all
significant
aspects
markedly
differed
gave
retrospective
answers
Percent:
Fear-terror ...........
Admiration-impressed by bombs' physical
behind
the
Anger-bomb is cruel, inhuman, barbarous .......... 17
Ha•ie of U. S. specifically because of atom
bumb use ...........
respondento gave more than one answer.
)
Th e
U.S. Government Printing Office, 1947), Table 83, p. 92.
16
*o
The
Japanese Morale (Washington:
NAGASAKI AND
Percent with:
Relatively Relatively
of destruction ................... .. 46
Bombing on
Jggaeoe Morgls). Th e two morale groups in this table each represent
roughly halt the
sample, when arranged
Morale Index.
relatively higher
in
The
"relatively low morale" or "relatively
high
morale".
and
Nagasaki
indicators. While
not unexpectedly the
1|iroshima and Nagasaki respondents frequently reported themse*Lves to have been
terrified at the atomic bombings, they also
reveal themselves to have had a level
of attitude toward the war not at marked variance
with populations which
suffer atomic bombing. If anything, Hiroshima and Nagasaki respondents were
13
according
for,
whatever
lations,
did not introduce a distinctive,
14
long
Whether
or
not
incidents of panic did occur as a distinctive result of the suddenness and
magnitude of atomic bombing occurring within a
wartime Japanese society appears
lations are compared with other Japanese populations. The Hiroshima and
Nagasaki
populations appear to have emerged from their experiences with no
1 3
indings
no mention
described shortly, the morale interviews do not, in
fact,
provide
substantial support for the claim that a sizeable proportion of
the
population
behaved
individual's
out
Janis, op. cit., p. 31.
14And
see
ibid.,
pp.
54-66.
19
in such a form
be at that time.
the difficulties in insuring full comparisons among cultures, social 'systems, and
massive disasters.
suggests
that
this level of
new, distinctive disaster
, the attack
magnitude could
have been
such
as
group
panic ---
would
occurring not
system
as
a
4t
and systems design
Nagasaki
has
disaster; social
structural constraints
For many analysts, such
the
public
--- including
relatively
sophisticated
officials
need
such
disaster-stricken
population.
The
interlocking
conditions,
mass
panic
attack. The
knowledge that
associated with specifiable conditions will suggest to the planner and administrator
that
if
these conditions, they can control and redirect
potential panic behavior.
lesson
result of a series of interlocking
events in a specific
analyst to predict the broad areas within which
panic is likely to occur? What are
the dimensions of social structure and population which
will the analyst
particular groups, so that individuals faced
with controlling panic can know simultaneously
its
potential
area and its particular manifestations which will require particular resources of
control?
panic-prone groups ýnfluenced, in
turn,
by
events in other dimensions of the society which do not seem directly
related to the causes
act
population
tell the analyst
group responses to expect after a
disaster? No w
events and toiard the whole range of events that may
occur in a society
panic
may depend,
in the end, on answers to questions about the potential behavior of many other
sectors of the society.
volume of studies
these studies is the
difficulty of the analytic
if "knowledge"
and
indirect evidence. Therefore, the task of relating varying orders of evidence
about thermonuclear
point beyond the amassing of
scattered groups of propositions about potential effects, is a central task
of these
and ana-
among the
larger institutional
complexes of
society which
reciprocally shape
life of pre-attack society must be seen as resulting
from several
studies of
necessarily address many unresolved
sciences. Through-
out these
essays, there will be manifest a concern with the meanings of knowledge
in the social sciences
of the general styles of thought imposed
by some available models for thinking about society and social behavior, the dis-
cussion turns to the special place of metaphor in thinking about imperfectly
23
the chapter,
the analysis
critical
the dimensions of vulnerability which
these classes, ranges, and limits form. With such knowledge,
it is more meaning-
the social
the social system become
criteria
for
civil defense planning to reduce vulnerabilities to nuclear attack. This chapter
concludes with a discussion of the particular types of knowledge about post-attack
worlds that may be both feasible for social scientists
and useful for plannurs. Here
there will be special
developing
be argued
systems to protect large
in society.
It will be proposed that the five studies which form Part II of this
volume are "criterion"
attack
events,
with which planners must contend if they are to preserve the valued
characteristics
of
more
detailed
answer,
the problems of
saying how, in general, a society may be "vulnerable" to massive stress
and how,
conceived for reducing
a constellation of
toward states
paradoxically
dual
develop ways of making more reputaiblc
projections of the possible ranges of events in society following nuclear a,'ack,
so
that
planners
can
know
the
for
whose
establish
basis fo r projecting
possible social effects of nuclear attack. These possible social effects include
not only individual behavioral responses
but group and
collective phenomena and
realities
of
complex
industrial
society,
must utilize not
on
which
may be
influenced by structural features and group and individual life beyond the individual,
But how can the analyst transcend the particularities of evidence about individual
behavior, and show it in its proper relation to the
characteristics
over
which an y one individual has only partial relevance, partial affect, partial
control?
While the discussion of the meaning of evidence about panic behavior at
Hiroshima
which it is
fundamental issue
remains.
rhis issue often takes the form of a confusion or an
uncertainty about the extent to
which
the
analyst
deals
with human behavior. The
defense reflects this
We use the term, "social system", in its broadest sense
as it applies to the United States: the whole Nation, in-
cluding people, facilities, materials, energy and organi-
zation.
of groups --- rather than individuals. knd it is important
to
remember
Plato, The Republic, trans. and with introduction by Francis M.
Cornford (New York:
25
 
What we need to know about the social system as an input
vari.s with its several parts or systems. Generally,
we
need
to
such as relationships, rights,
beliefs and so on.r7
from "abstra,.dions" obscures the ways
in
actors, behavioral
be
As the basic
social structure, inter-
personal relationships, and
inferences and concepts --- abstractions ---
are constructed. As clues to the existenc? of social systems,
acts nf behavior by physical,
behaving organisms exhibit the properties which
lead the analyst
and cultural facts.
and
their
systems, it becomes diffi-
becomes a target, if the
phenomena
of
In looking
at physical
seemn intangible and elusive.
Directorate, [1963J), pp. 20-21 (emphasis
added). While this
paper provides a
the
the title page
expanded
modified
(sic) or withdrawn at any time. The views, conclusions or recommendations
expreosed herein do
the separation
lies in the possibility that the analyst
will
misunderstand
of social
reality of the
patternings
of social life which lead the analyst to infer the existence
of a
social structure
and a
even though this reality
of
abstraction.
labeling and
entirely consonant with conventional
reveals a domain of
"things". 20
Th e first task in analyzing the social effects of nuclear
attack is to
as conventionally described,
ta
.k
effects to the category
of
"indir
"t'
effects. "Indirect" ca n mean "effects upon social structure inferred from changes
in
mean secondary, in the sense that the indirect
effect is contingent upon a prior sequence
of events, beginning
To
speak of social effects as being, su i generis, "indirect" effects both confuses
the
which social effects can be
inferred from primary
In addition, there can be also the implication that as_'-indirect"'
effects, social
encountered
confusion
about
the
meaning
of
"abstraction"
is found in the proposition that if a thing ca n be known only through abstraction,
that thing itself is only an "idea" or an
"intangible" in its true nature. Some form
of this
proposition provides the foundation fo r many systems of philosophical
idealism.
2
0
in
a
classic
address
to
the
problem
of
establishing
the
nature
of
evidence
about social life, Durkheim strikes fo r the heart of the issue in these words:
"The first and most fundamental rule is : Consider social
facts
as things". Em ile
Durkheim, Th e Rules of Sociological Method, trans. by Sarah A. Solovay and John
H. Mueller and ed. by
George E. G. Catlin (Eighth ed. ;
Glencoe, Il1. : Th e
of Chapter
II, "Rules fo r the Observation of Social Facts", pp. 14-46.
27
li
T
human being
the events occurring
within orders of
social phenomena beyond the level of the observable human. So, also, is the
in-
the reproductive
for analytic
it can maintain
an ecological system, Both of these categories of
system are formed from individual human entities; both depend upon the physically
defined human organism to exist as a discrete
entity and to participate in the
conditions for
entity
world.
Both depend upon individuals to create ecological balances so that further in-
dividuals can be created. As both individuals and as a population
of individuals,
category of organic entity
partici-
observable
22
interprets
his
world
these
--- like music, as
to be
he would be seen
visual
artists know, of course, that this instant, frozen pose is only
one in the
behavior
can
these cross-sections of ongoing behavior reveal the
human actor in
environment with his hand, gesturing to another
person, or creating
pattern of
21This is a somewhat broader use of the orientation than is
customarily
setting tend
to examine
conditions for
of human or
non-human animal populations. See, for example, H. H. Mitchell, Floods and the
"Postattack Biology Proolem": A
The RAND Corporation, RM-4238-TAB, January, 1965).
2 2
While the
the immediate discussion certainly draws
upon the
items of behavior
human organism
the behavioral
necessarily
dependent
by
the
interactions
system which
constrains in-
in stable
system. Here,
of
various
uniting in one total
in this
orientation which has guided
Social System (Glencoe,
the human organism.
arid Nell J. Smelser,
and Social Theory
specific
"The
Hierarchical
Collective
Behavior
(New
economic
Ibid., pp. 13-14, p. 382 ff. Some
of
modeling, pp. 37-44.
function,
and
total
pro-
domains
system, one of which Bohlen, Beal, Klonglan, and Tait
apply
to
the
and civil defense. They write
(emphases
of the local
are presented in the report
which may serve
environment. The models may
by change agents.
which the
patterned
interaction
the sociai
(2) sentiment; (3) end,
(6) rank;
(7) sanction; (8) facility; and (9) power. The structure
and value orientation of a system at a given time can be
described in terms of these elements.
31
or
and constraints provided
entity formed by
values, symbolic meanings, techniques
from
evaluated,
present
George M . Beal,
Iowa:
that when applied
r,'Lit
ionAs.
.. *
 
guided and structured, and future behavior drawn from a broad range of basic
human capacities.
As a behavioral entity constructed analytically, the cultural
system will
physical, manipulable evidence
entities, however,
behavior produced by individual human
actors. With the cultural system, the
analysis has moved farthest away from simple summations of
individual
behavior
establishment
and
belief
a "material culture" of enormous importance for
describing and interpreting the distinctive patterns of that
society, the present
emphasis on the
value and cognitive components of
the culture enables a clearer
address to considering the ways in which determinants of human behavior may be
interdicted
by
material culture
of a
or sub-species of the problem of
economic
vulnerability.
this focus
ceptions and value statements in the specification of institutional complexes
to
guide
approach draws extensively upon the discussion of the
normative and existential functions of values and value orientations to be
found
in
Value Orientations in the Theory of Action
in Parsons and Shils (eds.), c., pp. 388-433. To assign "functions" to value
statements does not necessarily
dividual human actors as
of be-
systems of value. Value systems within
the cultural system of a
society must be
the
systems translate into
and the
normal, daily
modes for implanting and enforcing standards of behavior. Admittedly, a dis-
cussion of the "functions" of values
---
analytically
to
33
manipulation independent of the
of
men
concept and rule.
functional
placements
within
the
total
institutional
realm
opens:
society? It is one thing to determine in a rough
way a distinctive
is a more complex analytic task to
determine
characteristics of these entities with sufficient precision to permit understanding
of the structures and processes which will shape determinants of post-attack in-
dividual and group responses, when these behavioral entities have been subjected
to
attack. Th e present distinction between organic entity targets and behavioral
entity
metaphors which
processes or individual
analysis, see Robert K. Merton,
"Manifest
Social
of the special
pr,-
occupations of the social science specialty known as the "sociology of knowledge".
See Karl
Sociology of
Hiarcourt, Brace & Co. , Inc., 1953); Karl Mannheim,
Essays on Sociology and Social Pschology, ed. Paul Kecskemeti (New York:
Oxfcrd University
"-he Sociological Roots
of Science", American
On
the
e'mergence
and
Presnt
Role", .n Karl Mannheim, Essays on the Sociology of Culture, ed.
Ernest
MNidwin ,tnd Paul Kocskemetti WI ondon: Routledge & Kegan Paul, Ltd.
1956),
Role of the Man of Knowledge
(New 'ork Colii mbia IUniversit
y Eress, 1.140); and Winston White, Beyond Con-
foi'mitv (New York: The Fre'e Press of
Glincot', 196 1).
36), enables the analyst to avoid
some
of
if "relationships,
Beginning with observable
can infer the existence of four broad
categories of system which become
targets of attack. The crucial distinction
which divides
that organic unity,
relationship with physical environment, and emitted behavior are all physical
traits of individuals,
At
categorizing
2ffects
exerted
groups, structures, and
ticular
conceiving the dimensions
entities. What does it mean, then, to speak of the
social
cultural system which permit
is
the
whole
will be argued
of institutional structure.
individuals are
When
determinants alters. In principle,
institutional structure and
to many unresolved contemporary
and so'7ial change. Ultimately,
the
problem is nothing less than describing the interactions among the many levels
and across the many institutional forms through which an ongoing society is
organized and through which
direction --- and
a thermonuclear attack.
it will
be
helpful to consider very briefly several of the more important analytic
techniques which might be employed. A look at these
techniques will suggest
of describing
conceptual techniques
fo r
analytically defining
order
responses
a complo'te and
closed model of
the society. Such a model would be complete, in the sense that it
would
It would be closed, in
the sense that
determinants and
relationships of
possible relationships
might occur. With
perfect closure, such a model would exhaust the range of contingencies of social
structure and process that
Most
a
the
abstract,
37
with
and practical unide rtaking to coInst
ruct at working
responses to the r-monoc
open
ci.nstr-kct ion and
operational manmipulat ion, its on inc iple
most re'i' ai a major' goal of any effort to achieve
an exhaustive description and
Indicators of
are
modelIs presently being const ructed by
socijal
2
ecormorn.ý - -- an
onuni
such efforts may comne clue s to
desvrc-0n~ng interacations with in and arrong other institutional sectors. On somne
Po ssible aXnalytic
c it.
develop ii model
post-oatack
tapar iticos arnd rcquir enieni~s, ct cf-onton-c sob-Lectors is the IPAHNI
S' t('n :f (Wr( ti".ai tilr~f~lal
si 5! os nf~teorc'' Managemnent). 'Phis model inclhides a
i'pkiv f?'r' exano ning
relationships In the
ec'mmiiv, The syýSteml
and
The Pr-ototypo
Model Adapta-
tion (W.simtr:Nat,
h'r
dRm
it
spctiiv tihat g v' n thle c ond it ions gr ' ye rni aig the Fe si gi
-old ulse (Wf
ssar~y. Tilt,
choices )pen 1()
the dolesmori- maker' 5
rowe rume~nrokis and
less tidN, than, oitheiwisi
1) Il-A2.
I . Als.',- o 1~e, Ct'kei-i, ''Gamning. the Pos!- \lttak F'.tii lV
iii\Iit~ii
''un : (\ l I ~ri,
t- A(ote ( ii ail
scientists.
28 As "the construction aud manipulation of an operating model of a
.29
behaving system or process" , simulation modeling often seeks to produce
an
analytic,
manipulable
simplification
explore
characteristics
from the interplay of these
features. In dealing
strategists,
negotiations among rival groups, or relations among nations, simulation modeling
often offers the the opportunity
to work
with complex
enti-
but also assuming
not unlike the widely
et al., Simulation
ing (Englewood
military
applications
the actual events
and institutions of
are suggested
in Figure
sectors of complex
can
communicate
with
and/or
variety of problems.
what are
the effects
upon developing
tentions
in the study,
act
in
maximize the long-term
32
represent. In theory, with the appropriate definition of each grý,%p
entity
and
appropriate
by
A, B, and C could be studied. Individual players of the
game, acting as decision-
patterns and structures
analogous to patterns produced in social reality by many inore decision-makers
acting within institutional settings of much
greater complexity.
In Figure l-2b, the "game" has resulted at Time t, in the development
of a new structural feature in the relations among the three group-entities. A and
B,
on the basis of communication and negotiation, have formed an alliance which,
from
the
B
to behave as one
unit. Thus, relations between A and B and between A-B and C
are now controlled
structure. This game and its outcome
might offer several orders of insight to the social scientist. The student of inter-
institutional process within
in what senses
he couild let A stand for the "economy", B for the formally
organized national
government, and C for the network of voluntary associations, "pressure groups",
33
what
polity form arrangements which would not be responsive to
pressures exerted
What
counterbalancing pressures
could the
voluntary sector exert to force the economic and political structures of
32[the
contrasted ,vith a "man-machine" simulation
or an "all-machine"
farther,
differentiation of
to
totalitarian
group-entity stand for
of the development and
and the possibility
influence
Nation C evoke
2
A
3
this
take into account
2
fresh set
the richness of structural and
situational
differentiation
depict the central constraint
the prediction
nuclear
the elements of a society and
the means
through which they may influence each other during nrocesses of social
change,
the
and
all the necessary
be possible even
group an
influence processes
of Georg Simmel's
), The Sociology of
Georg Simmel (Glencoe,
43
"V
analyst
of complex social
conclusions
of
social
processes
variety of post-attack social
model should generate
many
social scientists in arraying the
deficiencies
in
social
purchased with
a simulation model or total model of society are purchased at
the price of
is the
behavior of individuals
and groups participating
in simulations? Wayman
lation
1965), p.
would still be faced
with the dilemmas of applying value criteria to the social out-
comes projected by the model. At present, the policy-maker has an even more
difficult
and then Chairman of the U. S.
Department of State
order of
all these variables, the number of
unknowns will always be greater
than the number of equations. Th e responsible
politician must
solve his equations in part by instinct or by what might appear to
a scientist -is rather crude "common sense".
44
building.
Yet,
"approach"
may
be
misleading,
for
in
to put both existing and possible knowledge in the form
of coherent statements.
the
rigorous, these statements assert their
relations
characteristics of
major
physics, or poetry, its students will attempt to
construct
orderly
statements
which declare what they know.
(Footnote 35 , continued)Put
he
may
he
he may sense correctly that, if he accepts the going
scientific vocabulary, he may be accepting a definition
of his
W. W.
Rostow, "The
September 6, 1962),
his
"that
delineate
equilibrium". Ibid.,
an asserted relation
The subject
the
36
has been
to its use.
From the manipulative
standpoint, the problematic
action leading to the
and appraised
The result of
the way in which
actor in the situation can increase the probability of occurrence
of a specified state of affairs: "To
produce Y (or: To make
Y
most
likely
of
goal
are formulated
in terms
of their
significance for
It is evident
and con-
versely: one
must do X to produce Y if and only if Y is a
function of
Framework for
pp.
as
state-
a
knowledge
the rule,
a function of X and Y
is desirable". It may
creating desirable outcomes
rIl!eS for many intermediate
46
.44-
 
when a subject and predicate are linked by a relational form, which
establishes
of the dependencies
(e)
H:
where the
isubject corresponds to
gravitational
variables (as
also be used
and
is that under
tains attribute
The
many forms which
to
equals predicate may not be clear. Perhaps
all
the analyst can say is that the existence of a subject (S) is associated
with the
It may not be known whether
S
example, that
same total set
cate belong to
discriminable sub-sets as well, each of which must be taken into
account in order to define and manipulate subject and
predicate. Thus, given
only
the
S implies the existence of P
or p, and then to move on to examine in more
detail
things
to
p
or events.
In the
the analyst may notice only that subject
implies
predicate
(which
partially descriptive of
the subject), as in Figure I-3c. He may also infer the
existence of the subject from one
of its attributes
predicate
an hypothesis
is a prediction of relation between subject and predicate (which may
exhaust all
specification).
In
basic form (Figure I-3e). an hypothesis is closely related to an identity in form:
Given S, P or p will result. Such an hypothesis
is only a special case of a more
general proposition which creates
This general
is the conditional prediction (Figure 1-3f). Its format relates subject
(here expressed as X) and predicate (here exurrssed as Y),
-,.en specific
degree
(p). tinder
48
 
of inquiry, given conditions must be specifiable, and the dependent variable (the
predicate Y) must b1- measurable concurrently with changes in the independent
variable (the subject ">). At the start of
inquiry, the conditional
prediction is an
limited
proposition
an aspect
is to develop an array of tested hypotheses which can
stand
as
propositions expressed as conditional predictions. In practice, the certainty as
well as the meaning and
significance of such propositions may be
subject to many
behavioral
It would
be nice to be able to say that the specifications and
criteria were all clearly laid out at the start
and that it was
simply a job of following them out. But that was not
the case.
Rather, we
of what we wanted
literature of the behavioral
understanding,
"what we really know" to nonspecialists.
From then on, it was a matter of trial-and-error, of gradu-
ally clarifying what we meant
by a "finding", determining
importance, deciding
"enough",
and
so on. For example, we decided early on to dismiss specu-
lation, impression, anecdotage,
matter how brilliant
to us personally. No r did we accept single
case studies: we
in
fact occurred, somewhere, sometime. We asked for something
more, and we tried to be guided by what passes fo r evidence
among
the more highly reputed practitioners and journals in the
several fields. At the margins, the decision as to whether ia
particular finding satisfied the criteria fo r
inclusion
was
ex-
to make with
for "findirg" not fully determinate, but the extent
to
and significant
38
Bernard
An Inventory of
Scientific Findings (New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, Inc.), 1964, pp . 6-7.
49
to-F~ace
the categories is from the inidi-
vidual to
necessarily
each heading
propositions
which
thp- intellectual
Th~e categories provide
but they
were not meant to imply theories or sub-theories which would unite the phenomena
of each category into a pi-edictive system or relate that system to a larger theory
predicting the relations among all dornains
of human behavior.
definxition
and
examina-
tion of cor'dition..l predictions about fragments of reslity and toward the accumulation
I of particular bodies of prcipositions; tý.e implication *s that larger amrbitions would
have
beer
premature
a
contemporary
inv.-ntory.
4
prediction creates
Jimited
utilities and
39
pp ,
xix-xxihi.
4Ascharacteristics
of
it; "Tne definot~ortc ar e prccise .
'The data,-collecting
is objectiv'e . . .
" "The findings
also that "the
assumnes, first
- 13,
pp . 659-667.
5 0)
Under Stress.
Barton's principal purpose is to construct a series of propoaitions about the
responses of social
and violent
property.
At many points however we will draw comparisons with other types
of
collective
or urban
studies
natural disasters, involving particular communitiea or regions; through the appli-
cation of more general descriptive and explanatory concepts and the development
of a comparative framework, he establishes categories
for systematically evalu-
comings
to
disaster,
44
a
problem ^
which
Barton
chapters,
the Disaster
of social
the disaster situation
in both natural
findings on responses to community
disaster
where he shapes a large body of
findings into groups
46
groups in
their order
the
lead
group title. Barton's purpose is explicitly
systematic, within the constraints
simply
of
Some of their
others; and some feed
in
snowballing
considerably more complicated
represents a
or reversed by the
of
such
reversals and other indirect consequences is exactly what this type
of system model i; supposed to point out.
The propositions are, needless to say, not aHl scientifically
proven. Some are supported by observation in many cases; a few
by statistidal -}ata from one
or
two
based on
scanty impressions, but are included because they are thought to play
an important part in the whole process of community response to
suffering. 1t
cultural
and
derived
frori
years. We
ditiorLs under
need
to
be stated before the propositions can Le thought of as applying to
human
societies
in
general.
47
4
6
Ibid.,
pp .
12.1-166
47Ibid.
, pp.
132-133.
phenomena,
it
52
about Victim's Losses
communication and knowledge there will be about
the losses
.. .. .. .. .......e . .. o . •° ... q ... .
a
the
sufferers are more likely to be salient as a reference or identification
group. (p, 138)
Suffering (p. 141)
13. Social randomness of impact influences beliefs about the causes of
suffering. (p.
16 . The greater
the higher the proportion who
feel severely deprived. (p. 145)
"(E) Factors Influencing the Proportion of Community
Members
and knowledge there is about the losses suf-
fered by the victims, the more people will feel sympathetic toward
them.
23. The greater
Obligation to Help (p. 150)
26.
a
normative
(p. 150)
(H) Factors Influencing the Proportion who Perceive "Helping the Victims" as
a Community Norm (p. 153)
30. The greater
a
normative
standard
requiring
will
perceive
a result
Through this
hierarchical specification,
analytic
techniques,
the increasing
distribution of individual
communicating,
influencing,
of relationship between
ment.
community
response
4 9
of community-collective
of indi-
of aggregated
of
its own
right. Structural
being cast into a
model remains implicit.
of
secondary to the primary problem of
describing
processes at work among individuals in communities. Where the
target is a large group of communities or a whole social system, however, communi-
ties themselves may
those who must plan for
the whole social system. Patterns of individual response
in
a
of
closed system of propositions,
they are propositions about
communication,
depends for its
within a
only
relatively more easy to measure than such responses of the
community
Barton's
factors
arranged in a hierarchy
Barton as factors means
helping
responses
community
Barton's impact-perception-communication- influence-output paradigms, but
these
supportive
responses may include other particular "factors" which do not emerge
as propositions in Barton'-- present particular system. The propositional scheme
permits the inventorying and statement of phenomena
which
hierarchical
scheme
of determinants which produces final results. But if this hierarchical model
orders
a
similar to other
hierarchical patterns of
determinants? Are there superordinate patterns of hierarchical determinants which
can describe the response of the whole community and relate sectors of responses?
It is
from
not a general
the systematic interrelation of
response. Barton's scheme
precisely because it is
hypotheses about a
a particular
dependent variable as the final goal of measures and tests of the
interrelation.
hierarchical
that
reduce an existing limited domain of
information to sets of
systematically and to generalize
employ analytic
56
-.. . . .- • " ' " •; -""" ' ' "' L" .. . . . .... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . , ". .
social systems
study of the
the propositional
possible
determi-
validity
the whole social system --- bu t how
could
of society, the question revcrses.
At present, there are
be established with rigor,
and about
which there are ranges of measures on significant analytic variables. But, in the
absence of
a tested
of the whole social
and
measurable as an area of -arefully interrelated propositions. Without a total view
of society, however, the interdependencies
among one
As a result,
to phenomena at a
of the whole society and the interconnections among its total
institutionai patterns. In one
tend
to be all about visible behavior within a sub-sector of society, from which
inferences about larger scale social processes must derive. Th e
lack
of
a
total
view
these
propositions
and their interplay.
structured
and,
behavior
the dettrmination of
of the
sectors of
society surrenders a theoretical completeness in coverage and the ability to
specify a hierarchy of determinants fo r many events which result from
interplays
among
A
human behavior
under both
assigned
to
propositions could
such
an
adequate
hypotheses, and
the
conditions
these sectors.
any possible potential behavior
of the analytic
Second, some things are known about the "exchanges" which
occur among
the political sector
tutional
complexes. In turn, the polity supplies a framework of legitimacy
and
take place. Various non-economic
including aspects of
in part, how
means for maintaining value-shaping
answers achieved by
to
structures available for mobilization by an economy or polity. Enough
may be
outlinei
of a
systematic description
which would relate --- on a fairly general level of conceptual abstraction ---
the principal
specific limits among
5 2
references in Footnote 23, pp. 30-32 above, especially
Parsons
Smelser,
schematic
ordering
of
data about
social sectors (shown for convenience in Figure 1-4 as being five in number). This
ordering relates statements of defining variables (expressed for each sector as a
group of
identities, each
of which
can be
propositions
(expressed
a group of
and a Y). Taken together, these propositions
would
define
not
Figu.
SECTORS:
SECTORS
to
trace
specific
linkages ---
of full knowledge,
.e( tors, the arrows connect.inng the social sector 'omponents
of Figure 1-4 must reemain broken. These breakis sigTiify the present
impossibility
of inputs and outputs betwein
any two or any
in-
cluding these tentative reLatiris in the Figujre doec indicate the existence
of
antd
the Figure
of t'Oe analysis: a description
of the total social system of society, utilizing described
social
sector
will permit
the analysis
behavior
or insti-
tutional responses, both within and outside that sector. Figure 1-4 is a
practical
would
be
a
parody
of research objectives.
Figure 1-4 also points up the purposes and problem 3 of the studies which
form
Part II of this volume. The primary purpose of these studies is to se t forth
Jimensions of present behavior and possible and likely future
behavior of several
and
findings,
Because of
the complexity
characteristics,
io
even
sector.
determinauts
3ociety) and Chapter IV (on
dimensions and
values
utional viability. As attempts to se t
ranges and
;ectors of institutional groups and their potential
effects
on
of hierarchical ordering
tnd closure which
inventories.
62
ori
the
know he
components within a
relations among the sectors shown in Figure [-4 must remain
partially undetermined,
sectors remain only partially determined. Th e
propositions, concepts.
parameters, and
be fully
the level of description required in these studies results in
a special variant of the problem
of closure.
the
"problem
of
specification".
to de -
in social
clear and stable values
the "normal" states
of knowledge aaout the domain is specifying within a limited,
stable
the key entities of that domain. Yet, without an over-
all vie-w of
feasible may create a misleading
53
sense of having stated the key characteristics of this domain.
()On
relatively
high
level
of
analytic
generality,
consider
the
problems
of
stating mnd
testii•g this proposition: In a political system, a relat'vely high
degree of
ways
an
mig4ht
mai,,tained?
On
a
are
American pattern
 
conceptual
of modern economies
entrepreneurial
(Glencoe,
by R. H. Tawney
sectors
will
exchanges
view
arena within which
points toward the kind of basic system pattern that
might unite the specific or fragmentary
about
and Myth in the.Study
the institutions
in terms of a
Similarly,
been developed
ordering of determnnants
the
rungs
for
not precisely
the use of
the
po-
At ceetain stages of analysis, there may Le a closer
relation between
would reject out of hand the suggestion
that the following description of grass is "scientific":
A child said What
How could I answer the child? I do not know
what it
tu•e flag of my disposition, out of
hopeful green
stuff woven.
A scented gift and remembrancer designedly dropt,
Bearing
Or I
babe of the
And it means, Sprouting
zones,
give them the same,
course, the metaphors are ujitrue, if
grass is to be limited in its description to the physical dimensions
of
of
meanings.
MacLeish
the metaphoric tool:
virtue inherent in
But here again, ...
in
poetr_
outside of poetry. They
in ordinary con-
of prose,
to the verbiage. They become -liches. Indeed a surprising
number of the most depressing
cliches in
a relationship. Which means, since a metaphor is a
relation-
ship,
We say
is
rno plow. No plowshare. Nothing but a ship. And eventu-
"ally
55Walt
Whitman,
irorn
Aristotle puts
transference either from
to species, or by analogy, that is,
pioportion".
Or,
of speech characterized
descriptive
term
properly
applicable.
not applicable:
"alien"
in
the
process
of
transference.
There
are
always,
objects, two
any
metaphor
live
enough
to
be
used
relation,
but
of the imagery of
relaticn.
When
of a
sequence of metaphors "grass" becomes "the beautiful uncut hair of graves".
the poet is pointing to
more than
grass and
hair. He
is intimating that a life process continues from the grave 7.nd
that life may, in
in
no
grass
growing on the grave. The ability of a poet to
seize experience lies in significant measure in his ability to see such relations
and to
recording these
relations is
craft.
metaphor as a
or
hypothesize
the
ceived as analogous
67
-4-
to wander toward
poetry, however, when the analysis substitut,!s the metaphor-predicate fo r the
subject and, by asserting
becomes a particularly
subtle task when it is recognized that while phenomena and their effects may be
identified
as tools fo r further
analysis on a more
of one of the basic
concepts of
this volume,
Th e term social system can be applied to
collectivities
a family, all the
its
physical
Pnviron-
power
environment may
explosions,
may fail due to loss
of
through
break-
may become
the
due to changes in
5 7
of
"metaphors"
qualities
are
social
in Social Change". in George
K.
), Explorations in
Social Change
68
solving the conflict.
naturally affects
the smaller
3ame regardless of Ohe
is laid.
equally socialized
system
way other
ac'ding
structure
which
social
organi-
zation
differing sources of
translated
of "system",
implies a
in terms
of the
In physics, a
spring
extends.
As
the
relationship
is
the spring
weight,
loses its shape or snaps. Th e complexity
of
va t abl~s and dimensions than in the
simplest physical
venient t,!r'ns fo r
---
(Footnote
still re . ins to determine which
institutional
of
stress
are
as
inherent
general level,
Bertrand makes it difficult if not impossible in principle to specify
forms
dependent variable
6), it would appear
also that he comes
and other
stresses and
strains that
are "dysfunctional".
civil
in behavioral sciience analysis, see Kurt
W. Back,
TTrf'.hc Tame
"The Role
stress" or "collective
weapons
 
Th e less explicit a metaphor, the more the potentiality fo r
being misled
by it.
other hand, some metaphors which have guided perceptions and policies
toward
hidden.
concealed within the "panic myth" or "pandemonium model": It may
.e termed the
catastrophe will cause wild
this has been an uncritically accepted
myth,
which melds misperceptions and
fantasies about past experiences with anxieties over future responses. For some
analysts, the imager-y of
been the ground
fo r a "pandemonium model" of expected group responses in disaster.
Panic or
defense
shelter
prepa-
after
To burrow beneath ihe
means
which have
of creating a demo-
isolated
there
Psychiatrists
of primitive,
in A National
printed by the
debate, se e
Vestermark, loc. cit.
difficult-to-acquire
values
with
disaster
vailues
more
must
be
connection
immediate
63
system
must
necessarily
'es and organizational skill would
be required,
fa r
On e
it
may
may imply a value
in
of
an evolutionary path from the jungle; but, a jungle metaphor
may be not
of what might happen again, but
also
a
be avoided.
may
be
version of Line primal jungle metaphor
and a corollary value commitment to democratic civilization to view the following
discussiun, where the writers assess relationships among variables associated
with psychological and pnysiological adjustment in
several historical
cases of
extreme overcrowding?
it would appear, reduced both oxygen consumption and heat pro-
duction to levels fa r beiow "what one
would
calculations for such
using
the shelter environment and
exercises at best.
63
And, it could be argued further, even if a population did
survive in the
short run in
a much more relevantly and adequately designed shelter system, there
would be insufficient resources left after attack to permit the rc storation of a viable
and satit'fying
t.le present discussion.
('hapte r IV, below.
conclusions
latter circumstances
would be
shelter-
ing the
the case
low-casualty,
intense
be characterized by
ment with outputs
expected.
Relative
the outset of the
the shelterees.
thermodynamic imbalance
by the
the
sur-
It Is
possible, however,
variables in a few of th'- most of al ) the
incidents
thesis for pointing-up the more
general truth that
advantages
environments' at the begianing
: IRB-Singer , Inc,, July,
sample of mental hospital
used in the present study
probably was
draw upon
where
levels
available
to
both
in theii
("rungs") and
the structure uf
and options of natioral security policy. By showing how crises
may have differing
levels and how
level,
crises can grow in
own
aware of the
pressures which can
In cases where
over the
tion ladder metaphor nevertheless allows him mure power to describe
what is
happening and to
predict what may happen than would otherwise be the case. In
those situations where
great control over
particularly
ladder --- his awareness of
ladder" may better equip him to control,
moderate, or orchestrate a particular
crisis at a particular level
of intensity.
(Footnote 65,
escalatory
and
discussion.
The
escalation
context
for
the ladder,
The ladder concept is particularly useful when one attempts to
examine the
region
and those related to the dynamics of moving up and
down the ladder.
Appendix,
pp.
in various sectors of
national security policy
dialogue, see Robert A. Levine, The Arms Debate (Canbriage: Harvard University
Press, 1963),
77
of
domain fully
effects
of
nuclear
emergent metaphors have
the study of the molecular structure of viruses, biologists and
chemists are unfolding clues to the basic nature of the hereditary
process in life.
66
processes of the
are supplied
be, carries all the
proteins. 67
of
basic
The
structure of
the nucleic acid functions as a code or body of information which
governs the steps
of traits from
their
of nucleic acid,
a general paradigm
has
begun
but
the
language
significance of the
Paperbacks,
1962).
67Irbid.,
p.
110
(emphasis
added).
78
S............
from "information theory" in linguistics, psychology.
and
engineering.
While
"information"
theories of communication
information need not refer to specific meanings or message content. Instead,
information refers
68
circuits,
regardless of particular message meanings. Th e problem of information was not
the ,uestion of understanding
as such; rather, it was constructing systems
which ':ould select out and reproduce exactly whatever systems of symbol
were
mathematical
and
engineering
sense
which appears to have provided the b-sis fo r the partially metaphorical
translation
;tudies on the
acid
carries "information" and "code" in the sense that its structure triggers and
specifies an orderly ,equence of reproduction
of new nucleic
acid structv.res. In
acid
structures
"information" in a communications circuit specifies choices of message elements
from a large range
metaphorical sense, When '.ne nucleiP.
acid starts a sequence of reproduction, it produces a total structi':'e and com-
municates
traits
to
have
their
in, fo r
btfucture --- tney form a domain of meanings
apart
non-
st.niintic !t-finition of iiformation are discussed in C. F. Shannon and W. Weaver,
Fh, NlathomaticalI Theorr of Communication (Urbana, iti. TUniversity of Hlinoic
Press, 1949),
The information ,ccqtaintd in nuclei' ;aci•
no t only ispecifies eq at n's of re production in the ten'gine•' ring sense,
it represorits
.
There
meanings. As a
"Through a complex metaphorical
come to contain
as having these properties
total traits reproduce over
and code metaphors pro-
The paradigm
with an attempt to refine the
"system"
Th e
analy,,is, arid an attempt will be made
to restrict the am -
biguitiea
which afflict the us e of partially metaphori-! concepts in scientific
analysis.
must
absence of better
tools and devices,
science
cultural system exist apart
from the behavioral item.s wh, h %'•rrn he hasis for infer
ring their existence.
of Ethiopiar
in the Amharic
Sam-enn5
warg
.. consists
(This terminology
the goldsmith, who constructs
drainirg the wax, pours the
molten gold
example, if
creates a
actions the gold, hlenel
priniary
rule
of
wax-and-gold
Tree
been hung up for thce.
 
The rnagrl-
ul presently
feasible thermonuclear
attacks mean
that it
is ultimately
Of determinants
tuti.inal responses
whole society.
judged, it- part,
a
form
A literal
tranrslation of
thee.
asavor -.
fully, one must krow tkat the 1rerb
mcaning
anxious
to
Donald N. Levine, Wa x and
Gold: Trad~tion and lnnovatio.a
in EthiopianClur
1965), pp . 5-6. The h'hnliquc of sam-
cniw ±rg is a
Levine aver~i,
of coursvý; whei,
lookout for lat''n,
Eth
hut a formula
--- it is ai
si
cha~g,. i! con temp~orary
Ethiopia. Ibid. pp. 9-F1
reiative equilibrium
area
which
is recognized as being "legitimately" the territory of the population.
Th e society endures
fo r this intergenerational
action among
population
in
the
present
generation.
71
As
pre-literate tribe or a
nation-state can be a society in
it s own right and a member
of an emergent super-national
composed
of
sever-al
the "Balkanized Europe" of the recent
past, minority
cultures formed i.-dependent bases for social order in a number of countries, and
7 1
empirical description of
itself,
theoretical
statement. Yet, to note that there are certain "requ irements" to be
met in maintaining
problems in
description of observable
of structural
to convert
observable regularities
an d society i.Ito
necessary
functions,
and
that
these
neeeiary
For a seminal
related issuen, see D.
F. Aberle et al.,
2 (January,
political boundaries
tribal and clan society has provided important impetus to the
view of society as
a clearly demarcated, whole
the
members of ot(),ýr societal
of an industrial society inhabit a core, bounded geographic area
which belongs legitimately to their sovereign and which
provides
the
enduring
geographic focus of the cultural traditions of their nation. Within this bounded,
geographic area, they
key forms of
dynamic equilibrium with their physical
environment, from which they draw physical resources for maintaining life or
acquiring the wherewithal
within a common
73
Industrial
72While
Czechoslovakia,
Yugoslavia,
Rumania,
and
the
remnants
of
the
Austro-Hungarian Empire were the (center of the classic Balkan factionalilm in
Europe,
in the enduring
Flerning-Walloon controversy which rends contemporary Belgium and in the dying
remnants ot Scottish and Welsh separatism in the
United Kingdom.
Among non-
Europear
complex ,,cieties, India provides the most striking example of a national
state seeking to
societal groupings.
of both benign
and revolutionary
forms attests to the persisten:'e of the distinct poles around which
( u;lnida•.
national
imp)rtant characteristics
number
of
societies
complexity, although they do not possess the ch.iracter-
ist •cs of an industrial SOc'Ioil order. The complex caste .ind 'inguisti-" organization
of the Indian sub- continent provides one example of continuing importance, evcen
though
India is in traasit toward an industrial social order. Anether and contrasting
tcase is
of con plex administrative and political forms
by several Weos African kingdoms
twfor,, the
the
the
economy
division of
stratification which tends
occupa-
for governing the movements
socizl statu