VULNERABILITY

A Conceptual Framework by Professor Semboja,

REPOA

Introduction

• Poverty vs Vulnerability strongly linked in a risk/poverty

chain poverty is an outcome, manifested

through hunger,illness, powerlessness, etc.

vulnerability is a process of impoverishment, a continuous forward looking state of expected outcome. It defines the probability of falling below an established benchmark welfare level in the future

Introduction (Ctd)

• PRSP recognizes vulnerability to unpredictable events

Linked to the risks of adverse weather, HIV/AIDS pandemic, orphanage, disability age and refugees

Notes the breakdown of the traditional systems and underscores safety nets as risk management instruments

But no details are given on the concept and its operationalization, within the context of the PRS

Introduction (Ctd)

This chapter attempts to develop the concept and an analytical framework for addressing vulnerability

Conceptual Description

• Vulnerability is a process of impoverishment, a forward looking state of expected outcomes. It usually defines the probability of falling below a benchmark welfare level in the future

It is forward lookingIt is associated with welfare

loss, usually below a socially defined minimum level

Conceptual Description (Ctd)

• The process/chain of vulnerability has three main components

The risks or, in most cases uncertain events. In some cases the events are certain, e.g. death from HIV/AIDS

Risk management/responses The outcome, i.e. welfare loss

Risks

• Risks faced by individuals, households, and communities can be categorized into

Natural risks-floods, drought, earthquakes Health risks-illness, disability, epidemics Life-cycle risks-birth, maternity, age,

death, Social risks-crime, terrorism, domestic

violence, Economic risks-unemployment, harvest

failure, Political risks-riots, pol unrest,

discrimination, Environmental risks- pollution,

deforestation,

Risks (Ctd)

• Some of these risks are systemic-arising from institutionalized economic, social, political and cultural settings. These shape the resource allocation and reward systems

Risks (Ctd)

• Not all households are susceptible to risks. It is a function of

The resource endowment-physical assets, nutritional status, education, access to information, cultural and behavioral practices. They determine capability to cope with risks

Effective entitlement-a working incentive or rewarding system. Otherwise the poorly endowed will be penalised-unemployment, volatile markets, etc.

Risks (Ctd)

• Therefore, existence of risk does not always lead to vulnerability. Only realized risks that generate adverse outcomes of the level that may push a household below an established welfare level lead to vulnerability. Thus, endowment level, effectiveness of the entitlement system, magnitude of the risk, frequency and timing matter

Risk Management

• Risk management-comprises response actions to risks, shocks and adverse outcomes generated. They fall into:

Ex ante risk management-actions taken before the risk is realized- e.g. case of malaria

Risk prevention or reduction- e.g. eliminate malaria carriers mosquitoes

Lower exposure to risk-take pills, use nets, migrate to drier areas to reduce exposure to malaria

Risk mitigation-provide compensation against the expected loss-e.g. insurance. Moral hazard?

Risk Management (Ctd)

Ex post risk management- actions taken after the risk is realized.

Coping responses-public safety nets, e.g. food aid, disposal of assets, child labour

• Three difficult policy questions arise Whether to focus on ex ante or ex

post? Which combination of instruments?

Child labour enhances both current Y and future child vulnerability

Risk Management (Ctd)

What role for which stakeholder? Vulnerable households are

unlikely to invest in ex ante risk management

A large part of the ex ante risk management may require socio-economic, political and cultural institutional changes. Governments are best placed to address these areas-through laws and regulations and information and education campaigns

Conclusion

• This framework is still a work in progress. Inputs from this meeting will be used to refine it further.

• Because the ongoing PPA is focusing on vulnerability, it will also form an important input for finalizing this framework, particularly in providing the Tanzanian context. But this framework will also strengthen the analytical framework for the PPA to enrich its relevance for poverty reduction.