How to profit from The European Spring

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Important Risk Warnings:

Before investing you should consider carefully the risks involved, including those described below. If you have any doubt as to suitability or taxation implications, seek independent financial advice.

General - Your capital is at risk when you invest, never risk more than you can afford to lose. Past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results. There is no guarantee dividends will be paid. Bid/offer spreads, commissions, fees and other charges can reduce returns from investments.

Overseas shares - Some recommendations may be denominated in a currency other than sterling. The return from these may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Any dividends will be taxed at source in the country of issue.

Funds – Fund performance relies on the performance of the underlying investments, and there is counterparty default risk which could result in a loss not represented by the underlying investment. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) with derivative exposure (leveraged or inverted ETFs) are highly speculative and are not suitable for risk-averse investors.

Bonds – Investing in bonds carries interest rate risk. A bondholder has committed to receiving a fixed rate of return for a fixed period. If the market interest rate rises from the date of the bond’s purchase, the bond’s price will fall. There is also the risk that the bond issuer could default on their obligations to pay interest as scheduled, or to repay capital at the maturity of the bond.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate certain activities, including the buying and selling of commodities such as gold, and investments in cryptocurrencies. This means that you will not have the protection of the Financial Ombudsman Service or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme.

Taxation – Profits from investments, and any profits from converting cryptocurrency back into fiat currency is subject to capital gains tax. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may be subject to change.

Investment Director: Boaz Shoshan. Chief Strategist: Nick Hubble. Editors or contributors may have an interest in shares recommended. Information and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of other editors/contributors of Southbank Investment Research Limited. Full details of our complaints procedure and terms and conditions can be found on our website www.southbankresearch.com.

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How to profit from Europe’s panic of 2019

Are you comfortable with the idea of profiting from Europe’s chaos?

If you’re not sure, consider the alternative. Would you prefer to just sit there and watch the turmoil take chunks out of your wealth?

As Europe’s common currency causes an economic depression, street violence, political chaos, stockmarket chaos, banking system chaos and in the end sovereign debt chaos, in that order, what will you be doing and thinking?

I don’t think you’ll be surprised by what happens. Not after becoming The Fleet Street Letter Monthly Alert subscriber.

The real question is how you’ll feel about your finances. Will you feel safe? Will you feel protected? Will you feel yourself getting wealthier?

I really don’t mind whether you decide to speculate on the coming crashes, or just hedge against them. That means protecting yourself from the fallout by making a bet which pays off when things go wrong in Europe. As long as you’re aware that there are actions you can take to do this, I’ll feel like we truly provided value to you in this report.The question is, what action? How do you profit or protect yourself from Europe’s crises? And the British banking system that’s so tied to Europe’s fate.

There are many answers to that question. Some better than others. We’ll take you through 12 different methods below. But not all of them will suit you and your needs.

Which is why we’re not telling you to invest in any of the strategies below specifically. It depends too much on what you’re trying to achieve and how the rest of your wealth is currently invested. This report is simply a list of tools that are available to you. How they work, why and when you might want to use them, and of course the risks and downsides – remember, we may be wrong in our bearish eurozone thesis.

But our aim is for you to find answers to the questions the European Spring poses.

Nickolai Hubble

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To find ways to make yourself comfortable in the face of Europe’s financial crisis. To feel confident about your finances, even as chaos takes hold.

You expected it. You acted. And you profited.

So let’s dig into three ways to profit from the European Spring

1. Betting on bank, stock and currency collapses with inverse ETFs There’s no doubt that a European crisis will sink investment markets. And an easy way to profit from falling investment prices is investing in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) designed for just that purpose.

There are all sorts of ETFs listed on the UK market, and elsewhere. You can bet on falling currencies like the euro, indices like the FTSE and Europe’s Euro Stoxx 50, commodities like oil and more. You can find them through brokers such as IG.com and Hargreaves Lansdown.

In a second we’ll get to a few ETFs that are especially likely to go up in value during the European Spring. But first, how do they work?

ETFs aim to deliver certain returns under certain conditions. For example, an ETF that promises to short the pound should rise about as much as the pound falls. People used that method to profit from Brexit, as I’ll show you in a moment.

There are various ways an ETF might try to deliver its promise. It could use futures or other derivatives, or it might hold the underlying assets it’s trying to mimic.

It’s important to understand that, especially if you throw in management fees, the returns will diverge from the investment you’re trying to mimic over time. Holding ETFs for a long period will deliver sub-par results. This is especially true of short/inverse ETFs, as the derivatives they are using to mimic the market expire and must be renewed. But trading these instruments over the short or medium term allows you to get access to investment moves that would otherwise be difficult.

There are many different kinds of ETF, thanks to their flexible structure. The first factor to look for is the currency they trade in. Some ETFs take out currency risk by offering the “sterling” option instead of the US dollar or local currency option. Usually, the currency denomination will be in the name.

The currency can be very important. A US dollar gold ETF might not rise as much as a sterling gold ETF during a crisis, for example. That’s what happened during the 2008 financial crisis, when the dollar was in high demand as well as gold.

Given the nature of this report, the key ETFs to look for are those that are “inverse”. These bet on the falling value of the underlying asset. An inverse oil ETF should go up as the price of oil falls. On the London Stock Exchange, inverse ETFs usually have the word “short” instead of inverse in their name, a reference

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to short selling.

The third feature to look out for is leverage. Below we look into an ETF that delivers triple the return of the underlying investment. So if the pound falls 1%, the ETF should gain about 3% (this is often a little less due to something called “slippage”).

Inverse and leveraged ETFs are riskier than ordinary ones because they are more difficult to manage and use more extreme bets. The returns they promise and what they deliver is more likely to diverge.

Most ETFs use fairly reliable futures trading positions to deliver their aims. But don’t think that these products are riskless in terms of their management teams or ability to actually deliver the performance they claim. Those risks are real, even if they’re fairly small. It’s also worth bearing in mind that these products are often created by banks, and as such are exposed to systemic risk should those institutions fail – we recommend you keep your position sizes small if you choose to dabble in these “dark arts”.

But do these ETFs actually deliver on their promises?

Let’s take a look at an example. If you had bet on a plunging pound in anticipation of the Brexit referendum, you might’ve bought the following ETF: ETFS 3x Short GBP Long USD [SGB3:LSE:USD]. That looks confusing, so let’s break it down.

ETFS is the company that provides the ETF. 3x suggests it’s triple leverage, as mentioned above. Short GBP Long USD means the ETF is betting on the pound going down against the US dollar.

If you’d bought this ETF just before the Brexit referendum, you would’ve almost doubled your money within four months while the pound was hammered.

ETFS 3x Short GBP Long USD after Brexit

Source: Financial Times

As the pound recovered, the ETF lost value again. So it wasn’t a bad reflection

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of the currency market. Note that the ETF has fallen further than the pound has recovered – a good example why you shouldn’t hold such an investment too long.

If you’re expecting a hard Brexit to trigger new trouble in the currency market, this could be a great investment.

To summarise, ETFs are the convenient way to profit from downward trends in the medium term across a wide variety of investments. They are probably the ideal first step for profiting from a crash in financial markets.

But which ETFs are best suited to profiting from the European Spring?

Well, in 2018 financial markets began to realise what 2019 would bring. And that gives us plenty of ideas about where to start looking for opportunities.

Just take a look at this example. The Boost EURO STOXX Banks 3x Short Daily ETP – EUR (3BAS) is an ETF that is short European banks. Specifically the investments most at risk from Europe’s chaos, as we go into in great lengths in other reports. The last few months, this ETF soared as European banks plunged. The triple leverage made that surge especially strong.

Boost EURO STOXX Banks 3x Short Daily ETP – EUR (XXX)

Investors will have tripled their money in a year that was one of the worst in history for financial markets by many measures.

There are similar ETFs which short other parts of the stockmarket:

The Boost FTSE MIB 3x Short Daily ETP – EUR (3ITS) is short the Italian stockmarket index, with triple leverage.

The ETFX FTSE 100 Super Short Strategy ETF (SUK2-LSE) is short the UK’s FTSE 100 index with double leverage.

The ETFX DAX 2X Short ETF (Sterling) (DS2P-LSE) and the ETFX Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 Double Short ETF (Sterling) (SE2P-LSE) are short the German DAX index and the wider European Euro Stoxx 50 index with double leverage and measured in pounds. The Boost EURO STOXX 50 3x Short Daily ETP – EUR is

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triple short the Euro Stoxx 50, measured in euros.

But those are all stockmarket indices. You can also short other investments using ETFs, such as the sovereign bonds that threaten the entire eurozone financial system.

The Boost BTP 10Y 3x Short Daily ETP – EUR (3BTS) is short Italian government bonds. These are, in my view, the riskiest investments in the world. Because their risk is so underestimated and because they are so widely held by banks that can’t afford losses. The ETF that shorts them with triple leverage provided some impressive returns in 2018 when Italy’s bonds first plunged. But remember: with leveraged ETFs, you need to keep your eye on the ball to keep your winnings.

Boost BTP 10Y 3x Short Daily ETP – EUR

The last two ETFs I’d like to show you are currency ETFs.

The first is the default bet – the obvious play. ETFS Short Euro Long US Dollar ETC (Sterling) ETF (SEUP-LSE) is short the euro against the US dollar. So as the euro falls in value against the US dollar, this ETF should rise.

Why choose that exchange rate? The first reason is obvious. I’m predicting the euro will collapse. So it should collapse in value too.

But why the US dollar? Because the dollar is the global reserve currency, and a safe haven. During a global financial crisis, people rush into the US dollar to protect themselves. If I’m right about the euro falling, then the US dollar should also rise. This ETF gives you exposure to both moves in the one package.

The second currency ETF is a little more interesting. If I’m right about capital flight in Europe, a great deal of European money will flood out of places like Italy,

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France and Spain. And a great deal will flood into Switzerland. Where it will be exchanged for Swiss francs.

This could move the exchange rate dramatically. The ETFS 3x Long CHF Short EUR (ECH3) would be a great way to profit from this.

However, and it is no small however, the ETF is only listed on the Italian stock exchange...

Are you willing to invest your funds at the Italian stock exchange? I’m not sure it’s the most reliable option to profit from a collapse that begins in Italy. And it’s worth bearing in mind that some of these ETFs are denominated in the euro, a currency I don’t think will survive once this is all over.

But if you believe my arguments are only partially correct, and the EU or the euro may not fall apart entirely or at least not for a long time, then this may be an excellent way to profit from my warnings. It’s also important to remember that I could be wrong in my predictions, and that these investments do not boom as I expect.

The next investment I want to show you is very different to the above. Instead of speculating on falling prices, it is like an antidote to those falling prices.

2. The British investment with the lowest chance of defaultInvesting in assets that do well during a financial crisis is one way to hedge your risk. But there’s another option. You can buy an investment that is highly predictable and comes with extremely low risk.

This is only possible at the expense of high returns. But during a crisis, returns are not your priority. Preserving your capital is.

If you agree with this, the investment I’m recommending you buy is a UK government bond, known as a gilt.

Now it might sound absurd to invest in government bonds given my warnings about a sovereign debt crisis. But it is crucial you understand why I am making this recommendation. It highlights why the eurozone is in trouble.

The inherent problem with the euro is the lack of a link between European nations’ sovereign bonds and their currency. The British government is extremely unlikely to ever default on its debts. Because it can ask the Bank of England to print money.

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This is not true of the eurozone. Italy, Greece and other European countries are not guaranteed a rescue by the European Central Bank. The Germans only agreed to join the euro on the precondition that this would never happen. If it did happen, the Germans may leave, thereby destroying the eurozone anyway.

My point is, the UK’s government bonds are one of the few sane sovereign bonds to invest in in Europe. Because the link between the Bank of England and the UK’s bonds stands strong. As the euro collapses and sovereign risk strikes at the heart of Europe, Britain’s government will be one of the few credit worthy lenders without default risk.

But what about that threat of inflation? That is the risk. But it is not the central risk you want to focus on when a financial crisis is bearing down on you.

To be clear, I think government bonds are a miserable investment in the long term. But there’s a particular way to invest in government bonds that I think you should follow in anticipation of a crisis. It’s simple – hold bonds set to mature in the next few years. And hold them to maturity instead of selling them before they mature. I’ll explain why below. First, let’s look into the basics of gilts.

Gilts have very low returns. But they have two redeeming attributes. They deliver defined cash flows and have extremely low default risk. What do I mean by that?

Gilts pay out a fixed amount of money on fixed days. There’s usually the coupon paid every six months, plus the principal on the day the bond matures. If you hold a gilt to maturity – when it expires and the principal is paid back by the government – then there should be no surprises anywhere along the way.

You know exactly what you’re getting and when at the time you buy the investment. Compare that to the uncertainty in shares or any other investment and you’ll begin to see the benefit. Especially when you’re worried about a crash.

Gilts are similar to a term deposit, except that banks can fail, like Northern Rock did. It’s extraordinarily unlikely that the UK government will ever default on bonds held by the British public. It might print money. It might default on foreign-held bonds. It might cancel debt held by the Bank of England. But defaulting on its debts held with the British public is extremely unlikely. In fact, it has never happened before.

Better still, government bonds tend to rise in value during a stockmarket crash. But not by much. You might want to trade them for this profit. But what I’m arguing for here is that gilts are the most certain investment in financial markets for a British investor. Certain in the sense that they’re predictable and have a low default risk. Buying these investments, if you plan to hold them to maturity, is a great way to protect yourself from a crisis.

But why do I emphasise holding the gilts to maturity? Because, if they crash, as they did in the 70s, an investor who holds to maturity is not affected by this crash. They still get their principal back, plus the coupon payments in the meantime. It’s an investment you don’t have to sell to get your money out.

Therefore you have no price risk if you commit to hold gilts to maturity. That’s incredibly valuable when falling prices are what’s causing all the problems elsewhere in financial markets.

If you want to use gilts in this way, do not invest in bonds that have too many

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years to maturity. If you are forced to sell during a crisis, you could still lose money on gilts. Or if inflation surges, wiping out the value of the money you get. But inflation tends to take time to emerge. And it’s likely to be less of a problem than a market crash.

Remember, buying bonds that have too many years before they mature means you do face price risk, because you might have to sell out at some point. And the risk of inflation eking out your gains rises too. Stick to bonds that will mature in the next few years.

Let me put it this way. Companies tend to keep their spare cash in government bonds because they trust them more than banks. You can easily move cash around via the bond market. I’m suggesting you do the same.

But how do you get your hands on gilts? Let’s ignore investing in gilt funds, as these don’t deliver the benefits I’ve just taken you through – they don’t mature. You have a few options for buying gilts directly.

The first is the ideal way. You register with the government’s Debt Management Office (DMO) as an approved investor, which requires some ID and financial checks carried out by Computershare. Then you can buy gilts on the day they’re issued by the DMO.

The problem is, most gilts are long dated, meaning they won’t reach maturity for many years from the date they’re issued. You probably want to buy them when they’re closer to maturity – between one and five years away – if you’re trying to achieve the goals above. Otherwise inflation could take too much of a toll.

To buy gilts set to mature in the next few years, you can purchase them in much the same way you do shares with your brokerage account. The downside is the transaction cost, which is £0 for the direct DMO purchases above. But if you consider the side-costs of dealing with the DMO, it might actually be cheaper from the comfort of your own home using an existing system you know well. There’s no background check this way either because the brokerage performed it for you already.

Let’s take a look at an example of a gilt you might buy. The two-year gilt with the ticker code TMBMKGB- 02Y has the following characteristics. It reaches maturity in 22/07/2020, has a coupon rate of 2%, a price of £102.535 and a yield of about 0.9%. Confusingly, gilts are issued in £100 pound units even though their nominal value is £1,000. Each unit is effectively a tenth of an actual gilt.

The interest, or coupon, is how much you’re paid each year in cash. In this case, it’s two payments of £1, one every six months. On 22 July, the £100 will be paid, along with the final coupon. This total return, known as the yield, is 0.9% per year. You face a loss of £2.535 because the price is higher than the principal. But you get coupon payments of £1 every six months. In the end, the yield of 0.9% is not much, but it’s safer than the bank.

Don’t confuse the yield and the coupon. Because the prices of gilts fluctuate, the coupon is not your rate or return. That is partially determined by the price you

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pay for the gilt.

There are also inflation-linked gilts if you prefer to be hedged against that risk.

One of the benefits of gilts is that any capital gain is tax free. So if you do decide to sell for a profit instead of holding to maturity, your gains are tax free. That could happen during a financial crisis, because people flock to government bonds for the reasons I’ve described above. They bid up the price, no matter how low the yield.

Of course, in the European Spring, this will reverse. People will flock out of European sovereign bonds that are denominated in the euro. Except perhaps those of the German government, which is considered a lot more credit worthy.

Now that you understand gilts and their benefits, why not try buying one which matures in coming months so you can see how they work? Then, if you suspect a crash, you can secure a chunk of your wealth in the gilt market when the time comes. The returns will be low, but the default risk is tiny. Your wealth will be intact, no matter how much the market crashes.

But intact wealth may not be enough for some of you. If you’d truly like to profit from the European Spring, my colleague and managing editor Boaz Shoshan has quite the opportunity for you...

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Harvesting volatilityHow to profit from madness in Europe’s markets,

whatever direction they takeIn our “Stealth Wealth” report, I likened the financial system to a zoo, in which your wealth is kept in captivity and unable to escape in the event of a fire.

It’s for that reason that we recommend you take a small portion of your wealth out of the zoo and make it immune to the chaos within – what we call “unplugged” wealth.

But in this section of the report, I’d like to introduce you to the total opposite: to an exotic creature, from deep within the zoo.

This investment product is complex, risky, and expensive to own. In fact, it’s about as “plugged into” the financial system as it gets. An encounter with this beast is not for the faint of heart, or the inexperienced investor. But for those who want to go the extra mile... who dare enter the riskiest recesses of the zoo in pursuit of profit... then this may be an option worth considering.

The creature I am referring to is the Vstoxx. It’s a phoenix of sorts, which lies dormant for much of the time, before bursting into flame in great theatrics. Highly profitable ones.

Vstoxx Index (V2X Index)

As you can see, in the latter half of 2018, the Vstoxx more than doubled as Italy’s budget chaos played out. But if we are correct in our predictions on the eurozone, we should be in for a much bigger show in the future.

Boaz Shoshan

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But be warned – this beast can burn you. Especially over long periods of time. Anybody interested in trying to profit from its next big flare should only risk what they are prepared to lose.

Now let’s dissect this beast, and have a look at exactly what the Vstoxx really is.

Dissecting the phoenixWhile we look to the FTSE 100 index as the local stockmarket benchmark in the UK, in the eurozone investors look to the Euro Stoxx 50. These are the 50 largest and most traded companies in the eurozone.

Simply put, when problems arise in the eurozone, the Euro Stoxx 50 becomes more volatile. It jolts up and down faster and in bigger moves. And this volatility can be “bought” – or at least, bet upon.

The majority of these companies are French and German, with only a few from Italy. But if we are correct, the eurozone as a whole is going to be in for a rough ride in the near future, and as such the Euro Stoxx 50 will become very volatile. Especially when you consider the several large banks held within the index, such as Santander and BNP Paribas, which should come under significant strain during financial turmoil.

This is where the Vstoxx index comes in. It measures what is known as the “implied volatility” of the Euro Stoxx 50. “Implied volatility” is not how volatile markets actually are at the moment. It’s how volatile market participants expect the stockmarket to be in the near future.

The way market participants express these expectations is through the options market. They buy and sell “put” and “call” options as a form of insurance against perceived risks in the future. The price at which they agree to buy and sell this insurance reveals how volatile they expect the future to be.

A higher Vstoxx means a higher expected level of volatility. Generally speaking, the more fear and uncertainty in the market, the more the price of options go up. And that shows up in the Vstoxx.

It’s much the same principle as your travel insurance. If you intend to go skiing, the cost of the insurance rises. If your son is going snowboarding, it rises again. And don’t even think about going off-piste like the eurozone in 2019.

But what is the relationship between volatility and what we expect for the eurozone? The prospect of financial crises, defaults and the breakup of the euro would cause market turmoil. That could play out in two different ways for volatility.

Looking at the chart below, you can see that generally speaking, when the Euro Stoxx 50 goes down, the Vstoxx goes up.

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Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E Index)

That’s for a simple reason. “Stockmarkets take the stairs up, and the elevator down,” so the saying goes. In other words, rising stockmarkets are less volatile, while stockmarket crashes are much more sudden. This is why the two indices have an inverse relationship.

However, it is possible for implied volatility to increase when stockmarkets go up, too. And this is where the Vstoxx provides you with its biggest benefit.

Consider the possible responses of the European Central Bank to keep the euro together in a time of crisis – more quantitative easing, helicopter money, etc. Stocks may be in for a wild ride up, as well as down, as the euro falls apart. But wild movements in the Euro Stoxx 50 should lead to wilder movements in the Vstoxx, regardless of which direction they may be.

And that’s what makes the Vstoxx a great way to profit from a European crisis. It could rise even as markets surge. As long as people expect more volatility, to the upside or the downside, the Vstoxx will rise.

As you can see below, the Vstoxx has cooled since the market mayhem in late 2018.

Vstoxx Index (V2X Index)

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But if we’re right about Europe’s coming crisis, then another great flare in the Vstoxx should be on the horizon. But actually investing in the Vstoxx is tricky, and dangerous. There are two ways to do it.

Finding the phoenixAs the Vstoxx is effectively a measurement, an index with no underlying assets, you can’t simply go and invest in it.

Some spread-betting providers allow you to bet on the Vstoxx, or something similar. IG has an EU volatility index, for example. Because of the level of control spread betting provides, this can be an excellent way to profit from volatility in European stocks.

But there are more traditional investment products that track the Vstoxx. At least, they can be bought using more traditional means.

They do this by owning Vstoxx futures that will fluctuate in price along with the index itself. One of these is VelocityShares 1x Long Vstoxx Futures ETN.. This is an exchange-traded note (ETN) listed in the US, with the ticker EVIX.

Bear in mind that these products are generally created for day traders or sophisticated investors. They’re certainly not meant for buying and holding over the long term, and this is reflected in the way the product is structured.

The futures contracts that are held within the product expire as time goes by, and new ones must be bought at market. This constant repurchasing slowly erodes the value of the product, so if nothing happens in the Vstoxx, anyone holding the notes will lose money over time.

VelocityShares 1x Long Vstoxx Futures ETN (EVIX)

But in the short term, the ETN can be profitable. In the run-up to Italy’s May election last year, and during the height of the budget crisis of October, it surged, despite the fact that only very few Italian stocks are included in the Vstoxx.

So while we expect the Vstoxx to soar, until it does, this can be a painful trade. It’s also important to note that when volatility spikes, it generally doesn’t stay

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up there for too long before coming down again. When there’s a big boom, you’ll need to sell fast. We won’t be issuing a buy or sell recommendation for this. This report exists just to introduce you to the EVIX as an option you may be interested in pursuing.

You will however find information on which days you might want to use the advice in this report in the other Fleet Street Letter Monthly Alert guides. Days we’ve identified as especially likely to lead to a crisis.

It is hard to get access to the EVIX, but it can be found through Interactive Brokers and Charles Schwab. One of the reasons this product is hard to get access to is because this strategy has generally not made much money in recent times, and so few people have asked their brokers to list it. But that doesn’t mean you should ignore the opportunity.