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Considerations for NASA’s TGIR Meeting:

Revolutionizing Aviation

Considerations for NASA’s TGIR Meeting:

Revolutionizing Aviation

(A very personal View!)

Capt. Tom ImrichChief Pilot, Research

Boeing Commercial Airplanes

May 16, 2001

(A very personal View!)

Capt. Tom ImrichChief Pilot, Research

Boeing Commercial Airplanes

May 16, 2001

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• System Capacity/Delay (e.g., see the media!)

• Capability/Efficiency (e.g. MDY; GA / MIL access)

• Safety (e.g., Approach/Landing, CFIT, RCOs…)

• Forces: ...Growth, Events, Markets, Globalization

New Aircraft Capability, Mil Reqts, $,...

The NEED is real...

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AerodynamicsAerodynamics PropulsionPropulsion

The INASThe INAS

Moving Forward……With Major Complex Systems Moving Forward……With Major Complex Systems

2001Aircraft/OperatorsInfrastructureATS Methods

2040Both New and Legacy AircraftNew Operations / GlobalizationExisting and New InfrastructureNew Flight Deck/ATS Methods

StructuresStructures

System Performance

Congress; Law

Funding, Capital, AIR-20

Interest GroupsATA, ALPA, AOPA,...

Unions

ICAO, JAA,...

Technology Opportunities

Control

Press/Media

Public Support

Competition

Airline/GA/Military

Authorities/MassPortCost / Service

The VehiclesThe Vehicles

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A Key Example … The INAS: Critical Need and Opportunity • Capacity/Access (e.g., Incentives, measures)

• Efficiency

(e.g., equivalent DOC)

• Safety (e.g, concepts, redundancy, simplification)

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“Air-Ground” and “Air-Air” 4-D Path Coordination(Conflict Probe Negotiation)

Contract Probe PlanRTA(1)

RTA(2)

ELCT

ATS FACILITY

Smart Aircraft

Smart Ground Facilities

“AIR - GROUND - AIR” Transactions

“GROUND - AIR - GROUND” Transactions

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Access to Airspace(Conflict Probe Negotiation)

ATS Facilities

Airspace Constraints

(e.g., Class B)

Baltimore/Wash (KBWI)

Washington National (KDCA)

Philadelphia (KPHL)

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Examples of what NASA could do?

• Architectures / Trade studies (e.g., Central vs. Distributed elements; key role of rare and non-norm performance; fail soft characteristics and robustness; similar vs. dissimilar redundancy)

• Models / Tools (e.g., the atmosphere,... turbulence...; conflict probe resolution cost index)

• Unique Aviation Applications (e.g., Best human roles; Hardware/software lessons from other industries)

• Key conceptual “Demonstrations” (e.g., Smart Aircraft linking to Smart Ground Systems; R.O.T. management)

• High risk/high payoff Conceptual Studies (e.g., managing flow via new ATS capabilities at an airport)

What could be Possible…the limits?What could be Possible…the limits?(e.g., What do the “Laws of Physics” allow)(e.g., What do the “Laws of Physics” allow)

•VTOL… Operate nearly anywhere...

• ATS - Food fed “Kalman Filter”... weighs a microgram… 1x10E-13 reliability

• Normalized angular rates and closing velocities... Vastly greater than ATS

• Fully Distributed Architecture... Fail Soft… Zero Collisions?… Near Zero Cost?

•

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Background andBackup Slides

Background andBackup Slides

(For Q&A and discussion)(For Q&A and discussion)

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Turning Goals into Reality

•Today...

•The Future...

•How do we get there?

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Aircraft / International Airspace System (the INAS)Aircraft / International Airspace System (the INAS)

Airborne SystemsAirborne Systems...91.205(d)91.105, Annex 6......91.205(d)91.105, Annex 6...

OperatingRules

OperatingRules

Ground SystemGround System

ATS / AirportsATS / Airports

Navaid/WX Specs & OrdersNavaid/WX Specs & Orders

RadiosFMSAP’sXPDR’s

RadiosFMSAP’sXPDR’s

RTCAAEECITU

Standards...

RTCAAEECITU

Standards...

…Directives(e.g., FAA 7110.65)…Directives(e.g., FAA 7110.65)

CNS/ATMCNS/ATMFAR/JAR 25

TC / STCs

Licenses

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RNAV (RNP) Applications (Cat I)Juneau, AK: RNAV Rwy 26

RNP .10 to RNP .30

Lower Minima

Parallel Rwys

Converging/Crossing Rwys

Obstructions

Terrain

Safe Missed Approach

RNP .15 DA(H) 268’ (250’)

RVR 30

RNAV Rwy 26

xLS (e.g., ILS or GLS)Cat I, II, and III

• xLS = ILS, GLS, (or MLS)• xLS/LAAS supports Cat II and Cat III• xLS Minima Credit• xLS Takeoff Guidance• I-RNAV RNP Based Initial & Missed Approach & Takeoff

LS Rwy 16RCat II & Cat III

RVR 12 RVR 3 RVR 7

LS Rwy 16R Cat II & III

161o CH2233 GSZIGLS

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~ 2 Types

xLS and RNAV

(phase out of NPA)

Where are we going with IAPs? …(Current IAPs, to long term IAP Goal… the Big Picture)

Where are we going with IAPs? …(Current IAPs, to long term IAP Goal… the Big Picture)

RNAVILSLOCBCRSVOR/DMENDB, ASRCircling

Current IAPs Mid Term IAP Goal (~5 Yrs)

Long Term IAP Goal (~30+ Yrs)

xLS

(ILS,GLS)

RNAV (RNP)

ClassicApproaches

~ 18+ Types

PA and NPA

~ 1Type : RNAV (RNP) (phase out of xLS?)

RNAV (RNP)

3-D path to/from every Rwy end3-D path to/from every Rwy end

xLS?

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TechnicalTechnical EconomicEconomic

INASINAS

PoliticalPolitical

Moving Forward……With Major Complex Systems Moving Forward……With Major Complex Systems

20012001Aircraft/OperatorsAircraft/OperatorsInfrastructureInfrastructureATSATS

20202020Aircraft/OperatorsAircraft/OperatorsInfrastructureInfrastructureATSATS

Social/CulturalSocial/Cultural

System Performance

Congress; Law

Funding, Capital, AIR-20

Interest GroupsATA, ALPA, AOPA,...

Unions

ICAO, JAA,...

Technology Opportunities

Accidents

Press/Media

Public Support

Competition

Airline/GA/Military

Authorities/MassPortCost / Service

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What Operators/Pilots Do With Aircraft…(Back to the Fundamentals)

What Operators/Pilots Do With Aircraft…(Back to the Fundamentals)

A/C#1 A/C#2

Safe Aircraft to Aircraft Separation

A BMiss Terrain/Obstacles/WX

( )A B AGet from A to B, or back to A

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Risk Management SpaceRisk Management Space

Level of Risk to Others

PersonalAssumption

of Risk

Government / PrivateRole or Involvement

Opportunities to make appropriate transitions

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Concept of Operations - Year 2020

• Aircraft/Aircraft Separation

• Conflict Probe Based (2D, 3D, and 4D)

• Use of 3D/4D RNAV coordinated paths

• Separation Stds based on each Aircraft’s Capability - RNP/RCP/RMP

• Reqd. System Performance (RSP) (e.g. /E..)

• Direct or Optimum Route (M.T.T./Crz Clb)

• Airspace/Airspace Separation

• Flight Phase Seamless /Globally Seamless

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• Coordination of 3D RNAV Departure and Arrival Paths (RNP based)

• 3D RNAV (RNP) and xLS Approaches

• Runway Use: Time of Arrival (RTAs) - for Metering Fixes/Landing Runway Threshold

• Runway Occupancy (R.O.T. Managed)

• EDCTs - Except Special Cases (e.g. de-ice)

• NPAs - (Particular special cases - 2D RNAV)

• Collaborative Decisions with Users

Concept of Operations (Cont.)

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Aircraft Separation Scenarios (A Key Global Constraint) Aircraft Separation Scenarios (A Key Global Constraint)

ATS

ATS2ATS1

“One Aircraft”, must work with many different ATS’s

(many different systems!)“Many Aircraft” must work with each necessary ATS

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Aircraft / Human / INAS InterfacesA Conceptual Model

Aircraft / Human / INAS InterfacesA Conceptual Model

Mental ProcessingMental Processing

Pilot

Mental ProcessingMental Processing

Crew

Aircraft Aircraft Processing (e.g., FMS)

Aircraft (n) Aircraft Processing (e.g., FMS)

Aircraft Stimulus

ATS Processing (e.g., Flt Plns, RdrVctrs, COM)

Desired State Aircraft Response/Actual State

ATS/INAS Stimulus Response to ATS/INAS

Stimulus Response

Stimulus Response

Inter-crew Communication

Pilot Response

Environment(s)(INAS: Aprts; NAVAIDs;Rules;ATS;WX; AOC)

CNS RoutesCNS Routes

Taiwan

33%

1%

Initial Deployment AreaMajor Traffic Flows

Tahiti

ealand

1%

Australia

Nauru

Hong Kong

Guam

Singapore

Phillipines

Indonesia Papua NewGuinea

Malaysia

11%

1%

6%

Hawaii

SolomonIslands

United States

11%

33%

New Z

3%

Fiji

Oceanic ADS Service Areas

Japan

RNAVRNAV(GNSS, Navaid Based) (GNSS, Navaid Based)

xLSxLS(ILS, GLS, MLS)(ILS, GLS, MLS)

RNPRNP

Classic Classic (VOR, NDB, LOC, BCrs)(VOR, NDB, LOC, BCrs)

Instrument Approach Procedure“Classification”

VNAVVNAV

NPA NPA

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Major INAS Challenges:Major INAS Challenges:

•Systems Approach Systems Approach (First principles; Tech/Econ/Social) (First principles; Tech/Econ/Social)

•Fundamental Tradeoffs Fundamental Tradeoffs (Role of Acft vs. ATS; Facilities?; (Role of Acft vs. ATS; Facilities?; Central vs. Distrib; Human vs. Auto; 6000 vs. 60K ATS; Acft Perf)Central vs. Distrib; Human vs. Auto; 6000 vs. 60K ATS; Acft Perf)•New Technologies… New Technologies… (Cptrs, GNSS, LCDs, COM, Info Age)(Cptrs, GNSS, LCDs, COM, Info Age)

•Models/Tools… Models/Tools… (CRM; Reich Model; LaPlace xfer Fctns)(CRM; Reich Model; LaPlace xfer Fctns)

•New Criteria/Policies New Criteria/Policies (Incentives; Linear TERPS; Trng...)(Incentives; Linear TERPS; Trng...)

•Stakeholder “Buy-in”; Coordinated EffortsStakeholder “Buy-in”; Coordinated Efforts