Wade ColeWade ColeWashington State Institute for Public Policy

Phone: (360) 586-2791E-mail: wcole@wsipp.wa.gov

WSIPP publications: www.wsipp.wa.gov

Relating WASL Completion and Performance to

High School Graduation

Early Learning & K–12 Education CommitteeEarly Learning & K–12 Education CommitteeNovember 14, 2007November 14, 2007

1 of 19

Washington State Institute for Public PolicyWashington State Institute for Public Policy

Created by the 1983 Washington Legislature

Mission: carry out non-partisan research on projects assigned by the Legislature or the Institute’s Board of Directors

Senator Karen Fraser Secretary Robin Arnold-Williams, DSHS Representative Fred Jarrett Director Victor Moore, OFMRepresentative Phyllis Kenney Sandra Archibald, University of WashingtonSenator Jeanne Kohl-Welles Andrew Bodman, Western Washington Univ.Representative Skip Priest Robert Rosenman, Washington State Univ.Senator Pam Roach Les Purce, The Evergreen State CollegeRepresentative Helen Sommers Ken Conte, House Office of Program ResearchSenator Mark Schoesler Richard Rodger, Senate Committee Services

2 of 19

• Class of 2008 Completion and met-standard rates by demographic

characteristics

Results as of summer 2006 (first WASL retake)

Emphasis on reading and writing

• Class of 2005 Graduation rates by WASL performance

Statistical analyses of WASL completion, met-standard, and graduation rates

Use results from the Class of 2005 to project graduation rates for the Class of 2008

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

3 of 19

Class of 2008 enters 9th grade

Class of 2008 enters 9th grade

Class of 2008 enters 10th grade

Class of 2008 enters 10th grade

Class of 2008 enters 11th grade

Class of 2008 enters 11th grade

Class of 2008 enters 12th grade

Class of 2008 enters 12th grade

10th-grade WASL

10th-grade WASL

Summer WASL retake

Summer WASL retake

10th-grade WASL

10th-grade WASL

Autumn 2004

Spring2005

Summer2005

Autumn 2005

Spring 2006

Summer 2006

Autumn 2006

Spring 2007

Summer 2007

Autumn 2007

Spring 2008

Summer WASL retake

Summer WASL retake

WASL TimelineWASL TimelineClass of 2008Class of 2008

4 of 19

Completion Rates in Reading and WritingCompletion Rates in Reading and WritingClass of 2008Class of 2008

(as of Summer 2006)(as of Summer 2006)

91% 93% 93% 83% 82% 85%

5% 4% 4% 11% 10% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total Asian White AfricanAm.

NativeAm.

Hispanic

Completed Reading and

Writing

Completed Reading

Completed Writing

Completed neither

68,878 5,691 51,493 2,989 1,919 6,622

3,862 2,257 379 194 722

5 of 19

264

Tested in neither

Tested inWritingonly

Tested inReading only

Tested in Reading & Writing

93% 93% 83% 82% 85%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Female Male Not F/Rmeal

F/Rmeal

Not ELL ELL

92% 94% 92%

4% 5%

90% 85% 78%

6% 16%8%4%

Completion Rates in Reading and WritingCompletion Rates in Reading and WritingClass of 2008Class of 2008

(as of Summer 2006)(as of Summer 2006)

34,517 50,229 66,36734,361 18,649 2,508

3,3552,221 5041,8102,0521,641

6 of 19

Tested in neither

Tested inWritingonly

Tested inReading only

Tested in Reading & Writing

75% 80% 79% 57% 56% 52%

7%4% 6%

8% 10%10%

5%5% 5%

9% 9%8%

14% 11% 10% 26% 25% 30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total Asian White AfricanAmer.

NativeAmer.

Hispanic

Met standard in Reading and Writing

Met standard in Reading

Met standard in Writing

Met standard in neither

Met-Standard Rates in Reading and WritingMet-Standard Rates in Reading and WritingClass of 2008Class of 2008

(as of Summer 2006)(as of Summer 2006)

56,393 4,853 43,950 2,047 1,078 4,057

9,958 663 5,479 930 472 2,314

5,130267 3,561

293 199770

4,106312 2,626

316 170646

7 of 19

Met Std in neither

Met Std inWritingonly

Met Std inReading only

Met Std in Reading & Writing

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

80% 82% 77%

4% 5%7%

6% 4%5%

10% 9% 11%

24%57%70%

10%

10%

9%9%

10%

5%

25% 55%16%

Female Male Not F/Rmeal

F/Rmeal

Not ELL

ELL

Met-Standard Rates in Reading and WritingMet-Standard Rates in Reading and WritingClass of 2008Class of 2008

(as of Summer 2006)(as of Summer 2006)

29,842 44,047 55,601 78912,34626,551

3,806 4,555 8,1685,403 1,7876,152

1,603 2,9174,793

2,157 2,2333,788

2,213

337

3,5271,873

318

1,949

8 of 19

Met Std in neither

Met Std inWritingonly

Met Std inReading only

Met Std in Reading & Writing

Class of 2005Class of 2005

15.4%

90.7%

50.3%

87.6%

42.4%

85.6%

85.1%

37.5%

89.1%

48.3%

78.4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

CompletedDid not complete

Met std RWMDid not meet std RWM

Met std RWDid not meet std RW

Met std RDid not meet std R

Met std WDid not meet std W

Met std MDid not meet std M

What Proportion of Students Who Completed What Proportion of Students Who Completed and Met-Standard on the WASL Graduated? and Met-Standard on the WASL Graduated?

Class of 2005Class of 2005

(20,353)

(56,452)

(44,876)

(38,888)

(38,393)

(52,725)

(24,426)

(26,002)

(41,990)

(42,485)

(28,153)

(60,525)

14,64037.7%

3,128

28,402

19,022

14,409

25,485

22,159

31,539

35,921

36,152

25,076

47,433

10 of 19Graduation rate

49%

59%

67%

61%

78%78%

86%88%85%

92%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Reading Writing Math

High School Graduation Rates by High School Graduation Rates by 10th-Grade WASL Levels10th-Grade WASL Levels

Class of 2005Class of 2005

Le

ve

l 1

Le

ve

l 2

Le

ve

l 3

Le

ve

l 4

Le

ve

l 1

Le

ve

l 2

Le

ve

l 3

Le

ve

l 4

Le

ve

l 2

Le

ve

l 4

11 of 19

10th-Grade WASL Scores 10th-Grade WASL Scores by Graduation Statusby Graduation Status

Class of 2005Class of 2005

19 160

4

8

12

16

20

24

Writing

414 400389 368340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

Reading Math

Graduated Did not graduate

12 of 19

13 of 19

Female (vs. Male)

Asian (vs. White)

African American (vs. White)

Hispanic (vs. White)

Native American (vs. White)

Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not)

English language learner (vs. not)

Student has at least one disability (vs. none)

Grade point average

WASL Completion

WASL Met Std

-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

More LikelyLess Likely

Relative Strength of Associations:Relative Strength of Associations: WASL Completion and “Met-Standard” RatesWASL Completion and “Met-Standard” Rates

Reading and Writing, Class of 2005Reading and Writing, Class of 2005

14 of 19

Grade point average

Met standard in reading

Met standard in writing

Female (vs. Male)

Asian (vs. White)

African American (vs. White)

Hispanic (vs. White)

Native American (vs. White)

Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not)

English language learner (vs. not)

Student has at least one disability (vs. none)

-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

More LikelyLess Likely

Relative Strength of Associations:Relative Strength of Associations: GraduationGraduation

Class of 2005Class of 2005

190 230 270 310 350 390 430 470 510 550 590

WASL scale scores

Pre

dic

ted

gra

du

atio

n r

ate

Math

Reading

400

Predicted Graduation RatesPredicted Graduation Rates

Reading and Math, Class of 2005Reading and Math, Class of 2005 (Analyses control for gender, race/ethnicity, low income, language, disability, and GPA)(Analyses control for gender, race/ethnicity, low income, language, disability, and GPA)

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Met StandardNot Met Standard

15 of 19

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

WASL writing scores

Pre

dic

ted

gra

du

atio

n r

ate

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Writing

17

Predicted Graduation RatesPredicted Graduation Rates

Writing, Class of 2005Writing, Class of 2005 (Analyses control for gender, race/ethnicity, low income, language, disability, and GPA)(Analyses control for gender, race/ethnicity, low income, language, disability, and GPA)

Met StandardNot Met Standard

16 of 19

• Use data for 10th graders in 2002–03 to predict graduation rates in 2005:

Graduate = f ( GenderRace/EthnicityPovertyLanguageDisabilityGPAWASL scores)

• Apply this prediction equation to data for 10th graders in the class of 2008

Predicted graduation rate: 74.1%

Predicted Graduation RatePredicted Graduation RateClass of 2008Class of 2008

17 of 19

• In general, the same characteristics are associated with completing the WASL, meeting standard on the WASL, and graduation

• Students who did not complete the WASL were less likely to graduate

• Students who did not meet standard on the WASL were less likely to graduate

• Will graduation rates be affected by making the WASL a graduation requirement?

Summary of FindingsSummary of Findings

18 of 19

• Final statistical analysis of the WASL Spring 2006

Summer 2006

Spring 2007

• Final review of alternatives to the WASL Multiple measures

Cultural appropriateness

Collection of Evidence implementation

• Evaluation of school-year Promoting Academic Success (PAS)

Forthcoming Institute ReportsForthcoming Institute Reports

19 of 19

13%

1%5% 5%

1% 2%

24%

51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

None Mathonly

Writingonly

Readingonly

WritingandMath

ReadingandMath

Readingand

Writing

Allthree

Percentage of Students Meeting WASL Standard Percentage of Students Meeting WASL Standard Reading, Writing, and Math, Class of 2008Reading, Writing, and Math, Class of 2008

(as of Summer 2006)(as of Summer 2006)

Relative Strength of Associations:Relative Strength of Associations: WASL Completion and “Met-Standard” RatesWASL Completion and “Met-Standard” Rates

Reading, Writing, and Math, Class of 2005Reading, Writing, and Math, Class of 2005

-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Female (vs. Male)

Asian (vs. White)

African American (vs. White)

Hispanic (vs. White)

Native American (vs. White)

Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not)

English language learner (vs. not)

Student has at least one disability (vs. none)

Grade point average

WASL Completion

WASL Met Std

Increased LikelihoodDecreased Likelihood

Grade point average

Met standard in reading

Met standard in writing

Met standard in math

Relative Strength of Associations:Relative Strength of Associations: GraduationGraduation

Class of 2005Class of 2005

Female (vs. Male)

Asian (vs. White)

African American (vs. White)

Hispanic (vs. White)

Native American (vs. White)

Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not)

English language learner (vs. not)

Student has at least one disability (vs. none)

-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Increased LikelihoodDecreased Likelihood

Met std in reading & writing

Relative Strength of Associations:Relative Strength of Associations: GraduationGraduation

Class of 2005Class of 2005

Female (vs. Male)

Asian (vs. White)

African American (vs. White)

Hispanic (vs. White)

Native American (vs. White)

Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not)

English language learner (vs. not)

Student has at least one disability (vs. none)

Grade point average

-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Increased LikelihoodDecreased Likelihood