Waking up the Giant The Key Role of Energy Efficiency in Abating Climate Change

Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation

Prof. Dr. Ernst Worrell

Chair Energy, materials & the Environment, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, The Netherlands

Director Energy Use & Efficiency, Ecofys, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Waking up the Giant

The Key Role of Energy Efficiency in Abating Climate Change


Joule

kWh

Therm

BTU

MegaJoule

GigaJoule

Negajoule

Kill-a-Watt


Introduction

• Climate Change

– IPCC 4th Assessment Report Results

– Mitigation: potentials & contributions

• Energy Efficiency & Climate Change

• Key Role of Energy Efficiency– Industry

– Buildings

• Realizing Energy Efficiency

• Conclusions

2007 Nobel Peace PrizeAwarded to IPCC


IPCC Process

• IPCC charged with assessing existing scientific basis for climate change and response

• Fourth Assessment Report completed in 2007

• Three Working Groups

– WG III – Mitigation – Technology and Economics

• Summary for Policy Makers

– WG III report approved in May 2007

– Line by line approval by participating governments

– Four-day approval process – WGIII Bangkok, May 2007

– Government interventions improve accuracy of reporting with appropriate caveats


CO2 Emission Sources

CO2 Emissions to Atmosphere

CO2 from energy

CO2 from feedstock (fossil fuels, limestone)

Cement, limeAmmoniaPlastics

CO2 from waste treatment (fossil and biomass)

Anaerobic DigestionIncineration

Extraction

Naturalresources

Waste

ConsumptionProcessingMaterials

ProductionWaste

Management

Recycling and reuse


Between 1970 and 2004 Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Increased by 70 %


Even With Current Policies Global GHG Emissions Will Continue to Grow

IPCC SRES Scenarios:

• 2030 GHG emissions 50-76 Gt CO2 or 25-90% higher relative to 2000

• Depending on population and economic growth

0

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A1T B

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ian

25th 5th

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A1F

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B2

A1B

A1T B

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th

75th

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ian

25th 5th


Substantial economic potential for GHG Emission mitigation over the coming decades

Note: estimates do not explicitly include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes

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estim

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< $0 < $20 < $50 < $100

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estim

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low end of range high end of range

< $20 < $50 < $100

BOTTOM-UP TOP-DOWN

Emissions 2004: 43GtCO2eq: 2030: SRES A1B: 68GtCO2eq ; SRES B2: 49 GtCO2eq


What does US$ 50/ tCO2eq Mean?

• Crude oil: ~US$25/barrel

• Gasoline: ~12 USc/litre (50 USc/gallon)

• Electricity:

– from coal fired plant: ~5 USc/kWh

– from gas fired plant: ~1.5 USc/kWh


For Comparison: Oil Prices

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/97

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Avera

ge W

orl

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rud

e (

$/b

bl)

Despite most severe economic crisis since the 1930’s energy and resource prices stay high or are increasing again!


Mitigation Investments are Limited

GDP without mitigation

GDP with stringent mitigation

GDP

Time

80%

current

77%

~1 year


All Sectors and Regions have the Potential to Contribute


Reducing GHG Emissions

• The need to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at sustainable levels will demand strong reductions in global GHG emissions

• Emission reduction in materials production possible by:

– improving energy efficiency

– reducing the emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

– capture and sequestration of CO2 emissions

– increased use of renewable energy and feedstocks

– improving the efficiency with which we use materials

• Focus on integrated energy and material efficiency strategies

• In next decades energy efficiency key


Emission reduction pathways

IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008


Energy Efficiency Key to Reduce CO2 Emissions by 2030

Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute more than half of decrease in emissions

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

49%

10%

8%

12%

21%

OECD

63%

1%

21%

15%

Transition economies

67%

7%

17%

4%5%

Developing countries

58%

World

End-use efficiency gains

7%

Fuel switching in end uses

5%

Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation

10%

Increased nuclear in power generation

20%

Increased renewables in power generation


0

50

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1990 1995 2000 2005

EJ

/ye

ar

Other

Agriculture/forestry

Industry

Transport

Services

Buildings

Energy Use Higher Without Efficiency

• World energy demand would have been much higher without energy efficiency efforts since the 1970s

• But not sufficient to stabilize world energy use


Global Efficiency Effort too Small

• Global investment in energy efficiency in 2007 was 60 billion Euro

• Promising developments in some sectors and some countries

• Overall effort too small, global energy use grew by 3% per year (2003- 2007)

• Download from: www.reeep.org


Europe Services, 15%

Transport, 9%

Energy supply, 32%

Waste, 2%

Other, 1%

Fossil fuel extraction,

1%

Agriculture, 4%

Households, 29%

Industry, 7%

EU: 2030 GHG Emissions Reductions


Energy Efficiency - Buildings

• Buildings responsible for 10.6 GtCO2-eq. of GHG emissions, of which 80% from energy use

• Between 20 and 40% of energy used to maintain building environment

– Building envelope

• Walls

• Windows

– Passive and active use of solar energy

– Efficient appliances

• Lighting and appliances other key areas


Netherlands: Residential space heating and hot water production

Consumption per dwelling, GJ/year (NL)

1975 – average 98

1998 – average 63

Standard 1996/1998/2000 – new 45/38/32

Present best in the market – new 17

Future – new 0 – 6


Insulation Levels Not Optimized

0

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

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ec

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erg

y u

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(k

J p

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r H

DD

)

Canada FranceItaly JapanUnited Kingdom United StatesChina, urban China, rural

Wall Insulation Levels New Construction


Technologies to increase residential heating efficiency

• Advanced insulation materials (vacuum) and glazing

• Heat storage in phase change materials (factor 10)• Optimum combination of passive and active solar

energy • New construction methods and integrated building

design


Success is Possible: Top RunnerTV receivers 1997-2003 26%

VCRs 1997-2003 74%

Room air conditioners 1998-2004 68%

Refrigerators 1998-2004 55%

Freezers 1998-2004 30%

Passenger vehicles 1995-2005 23%

Freight vehicles 1995-2005 22%

Vending machines 2000-2005 37%

Computers 1997-2005 99%

Magnetic disc units 1997-2005 98%

Fluorescent lights 1997-2005 36%


Industry: Global material consumption

increases Rapidly..but global material consumption will grow rapidly, due to growing demand in developing countries and constant demand in industrialized countries

0.0E+00

2.0E+08

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1.6E+09

1.8E+09

1900

1910

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1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Pro

du

ctio

n (

ton

)

Iron

Steel

Cement

Aluminum

Copper

Ammonia

Cement

Steel

Iron

Ammonia (N)

Aluminum


Potentials exists in all Industrial Sectors (2030)

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

OECDNorth

AmericaOECDPacific

OECDEurope Russia China India Brazil

Iron and steel Chemicals Non-metallic minerals Paper and pulp Other industries


Industrial Energy Efficiency Opportunities

• Cross-Cutting– Steam systems 10-20%– Cooling/Refrigeration 20-40%– Motor Systems ~ 30%

• Sector Specific– Iron & Steel 15-40%– Cement 10-40%– Chemicals 20-25%


Realizing Savings: Manage your Energy

• Successful management:– Energy bill is not an act of God– Recognizes the “human factor”– Creates an organization-wide system and program for

managing energy– Delivers sustained reductions over time and is designed for

continual improvement– Relates itself to the core business of the organization


Energy Management PitfallsEnergy typically considered a “technical issue”:

– Decentralized and not strongly organized– Under-staffed or out-sourced– Changes in management and organization– Technology oriented– Project and not program oriented– Reactive– Undervalued– Considered capital intensive– Lack of upper management support or

involvement

Resulting in poor planning and decision making


Success Factors for Energy Management• Commitment of top management

• Clear and measurable targets

• Information and management systems in place

• Regularly assess and track performance

• Involvement of all levels in organization

• Stable organization

• Resources and time allocated

• Continuous program

• Excellent communication

• Networking

• External sparring partners

• Recognition


A Systematic Approach

• Plan (target)• Do (implement)• Check (monitor)• Act (adjust)


Energy Management: Seven Steps to Change the Mindset

1. Make commitment to continuous improvement

2. Assess performance

3. Set goals

4. Create action plan

5. Implement action plan

6. Evaluate progress

7. Recognize achievements


Conclusions• Climate change and high energy prices are here to stay

• Energy-efficiency is the key response strategy

• There is substantial potential for energy efficiency improvement in the short, medium and long-term

• We are not running out of technologies to improve energy efficiency, economic and environmental performance, and neither will we in the future: vacuum insulation is an example

• Continuous innovation is key for further bridging the gap between thermodynamics and current energy use

• Strategic energy management is essential to recognize and realize the promise of energy efficiency


Thank you for your attention

Ernst Worrell

Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University

[email protected]

Ecofys

[email protected]

Documents

Waking up the Giant The Key Role of Energy Efficiency in Abating Climate Change