Walter Gordon Symposium in Public Policy (March 23 2011) (2) (2)

8/6/2019 Walter Gordon Symposium in Public Policy (March 23 2011) (2) (2)

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Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission.

Power and Knowledge:Shifting Public Perspectives

By Frank Graves

Walter Gordon Symposium in Public Policy

Toronto, Ontario

March 23, 2011


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Outline

1.0 The Priority of Knowledge and Expertise

2.0 Knowledge Underrepresented and Undervalued

3.0 Faith and Reason

4.0 Limits to Knowledge and Understanding

5.0 The Future and Conclusions


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1.0 The Priority of Knowledge andExpertise

Knowledge is important

Linked to social class, age, and gender

Strongly linked to political ideology and vote intention


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5/24


3%

29%

34%24%

9%

Hard evidence of need/impacts

Fairness and social justiceAffordability and costs

Impacts on social values/morality

DK/NR

Most important factor in national decision making

Q. In making important national decisions, which of the following factors do you think should be most important?

BASE: Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)


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8

10

16

21

28

32

57

74

0 20 40 60 80 100

University professors

Journalists

Priests

Bloggers

Scientists

Pollsters

Trust in occupations

Q. How much trust do you have in each of the following occupational groups or individuals?

Politicians

Union leaders


% high level (5, 6, 7)

5.4

MEAN

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.9

3.9

4.8

3.0


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2.0 Knowledge Underrepresentedand Undervalued

Broad belief that populism is the dominant political

mode

Equally strong belief it should not be; knowledgeshould rule


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37

46

17

020406080100

12

28

60

0 20 40 60 80 100

Is driven by Should be driven by

Intellectualism and rationaldebate

Populism and commonsense

DK/NR


Intellectualism versus populism in politics

Q. Do you think that contemporary politics is/should be driven by intellectualism and rational debate or by populism and

common sense?


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75

62

45

55

34

14

11

26

39

42

54

48

46

52

0 20 40 60 80 100

Have

Should have

Media/Journalists

The Prime Minister

Public Servants

Average Citizens

Lobbyists

Parliamentarians

Power gap: who has/who should have power

Q. Which of the following groups should have/should have the most influence in defining public policies in Canada?*

Experts/Professionals


*Presented in series of random paired choices. Per cent indicates

average number of times option is selected over all others.

-41

GAP

+49

+23

+3

+1

-14

-32


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3.0 Faith and Reason

Chief contest is between certainty/morality and

evidence/reason

Certainty and morality are strongly linked toconservatism and religiosity

Links to gender and ethnicity (as well as social class)


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12/24

Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)

1419

58

8

40 38

16

6

0

20

40

60

80

100

Humans were created

by God in the last

10,000 years

Humans evolved over

time, but through

divine guidance

Humans evolved

through natural

selection

DK/NR

EKOS (March 2011) Gallup (December 2010)*

Origins of mankind: Canada versus US

Q. Which of the following statements comes closest to your point of view?

*Source: Gallup poll; December 10-12, 2010 (n=1,019). Question worded as follows:Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings:

1) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process;

2) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process; or3) God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so?


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50

6

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

15

71

14

0 20 40 60 80 100

Breakdown by religiousservice attendance

Never

Occasionally

Frequently


A priest, rabbi, or otherreligious leader

A psychiatrist or otherprofessional

DK/NR

Base: Those who prefer a priest, rabbi,

or other religious leader

Preferred source of personal guidance

Q. If you were facing a deep personal crisis, which of the following individuals would you prefer to consult?


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4.0 Limits to Knowledge andUnderstanding

Lagged rebound effect on evidence and crime

1 in 4 Canadians are anti-science, anti-expertise

Broad but mixed concerns about impacts ofdemocracy and equality


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55

43

31

18

0 20 40 60 80 100

4

38

30

29

0 20 40 60 80 100

Breakdown by age

Under 25

25-44

44-64

65 and over


Perceived changes in violent crime rates

Q. Over the past 10 years, would you say that the crime rate in Canada has been ... ?

Decreasing (1-3)

Staying the same (4)

Increasing (5-7)

DK/NR

Base: Those who say increasing


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10

30

50

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Decreasing (1-3) Staying the same (4) Increasing (5-7)

Tracking perceived changes in violent crime rates

BASE: Canadians; most recent data point March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)

Q. Over the past 10 years, would you say that the crime rate in Canada has been ... ?

38%

30%29%


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1

26

9

64

0 20 40 60 80 100

Neither agree nor disagree (4)

Agree (5-7)

DK/NR

Disagree (1-3)

Attitudes towards climate change

Q. To what extent to you agree or disagree with the following statement: I dont believe all this talk about greenhouse

gas emissions causing global climate change.



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1

4

3

56

39

11

19

22

17

23

36

69

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

DK/NR Disagree (1-3) Neither agree nor disagree (4) Agree (5-7)

It really bothers me that hard scientific evidence isnt shaping public policy to the degree that it shouldbe.

I am worried that science is going too far and is hurting society rather than helping it.

I worry that the rule of experts and professionals produces elitism and inequality.


Concerns over science and expertise

Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?


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5.0 The Future and Conclusions

The public strongly believes that intellectual-scientific

approaches will dominate in the future Social media and Web 2.0 are pro-knowledge but

eschew traditional vertical authority (anti-gatekeeping)


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7

55

31

7

0 20 40 60 80 100

6

43

32

20

020406080100

Q. Overall, do you think that the use of hard evidence and professional expertise in public decision making is/will be

more or less important than it was 10 years ago/10 years from now?

10 years ago 10 years from now

Less important (1-3)

About the same (4)

More important (5-7)

DK/NR

Perceived importance of hard evidence in decision making



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3

49

17

32

0 20 40 60 80 100

Neither agree nor disagree (4)

Agree (5-7)

DK/NR

Disagree (1-3)

Use of social media in constructing knowledge and expertise

Q. To what extent to you agree or disagree with the following statement: In an era of social media such as Facebook,

Twitter, and Wikipedia, knowledge and expertise can be constructed from ordinary citizens.



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Conclusions (i)

Hard knowledge is seen as hugely important principle for societal decisionmaking (trailing only democracy)

There is a strong sense that knowledge, science, and expertise are undervalued

Contested terrain revolves around relative salience of reason and knowledgeversus moralism and certainty

The fault lines are deep and these world views are relatively incompatible

The rational-empirical view is much more prevalent, particularly among younger,more educated Canada

There is a dramatic left-right split and it is also strongly connected to secularism

and religiosity


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Conclusions (ii)

The recent political success of populism is paradoxical and may reflect lowrecognition and the weakness of the rational view to handle values

The challenge to reason and knowledge comes from the political right; it isrooted in a search for certainty and morality and a discomfort with evidence and

ambiguity

Populism is viewed as an interruption, not a structural shift

Public conviction about the future

Demography forces favour educated

Lagged but rational rebound on crimes rates

Future complicated by the digital generation and the flattening of intellectualauthority


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FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Frank Graves, President

EKOS Research Associates

p. 613.235.7215

e. [email protected]

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Walter Gordon Symposium in Public Policy (March 23 2011) (2) (2)