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Warming Racket and Climate Reality
And Why Rotarians Should not Believe the AGW Fiction
Bienvenido “Nonoy” Oplas, Jr.
Rotary Club of Taguig Fort Bonifacio, RI Dist 3830
July 25, 2011, Metro Club, Rockwell, Makati City
Outline
1. AGW Claims
2. AGW projections
3. Temperature Data: (a) air and troposphere, (b) land surface, (c) sea surface, (d) deep ocean
4. Sea ice data (Arctic and Antarctica)
5. Sea level height data
6. The Sun and GCRs
7. Ozone depletion, CO2 uses
8. Concluding Notes
Air/Tropospheric temperature, satellite data, average for RSS and UAH data, vs. CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
Source: Friends of Science, http://friendsofscience.org/
CO2 level now
around 392
parts per million
(ppm).
Temp change
from Jan. 2002
to June 2011
showed decline
(cooling) of 0.02
C per decade.
Global average SST anomaly (Pacific, Atlantic, Arctic, etc.) from AMSR-E
on NASA’s Aqua satellite. See www.drroyspencer.com
Sea surface temp (SST), 1950-2011 (61 yrs of warming-cooling cycles), data from WUWT’s ENSO page
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/enso/
Current La Nina (started May 2010) will end when?
* Looks like
until late
2012
•See temp
range, up to
2.5 C diff.
among
dozens of
computer
models
• Projections
are messy
and
unreliable if
assumptions
are
unreliable
SST anomaly as of July 21, 2011, data from
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/
anomnight.current.gif
Philippines’ surrounding seas
currently colder than average
temp in the past
Arctic Ice: lowest during late Sept, 4.2 M sq.kms. highest during late March, 14.5 M sq. kms. Compare w/ Phil. Land area, 0.3 M sq.kms.
2007 has the lowest sea ice level the past decade. 2011 level also lower than ave, but is it worse this year than the worst of 2007? Data from WUWT sea ice page,
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
It’s now summer in
the Arctic and
Northern
Hemisphere.
September is fast
approaching where
Arctic ice will
achieve its lowest
sea ice level.
Are we nearing an
“ice free Arctic”?
Where are the
“icebergs breaking
into oblivion”?
Antarctica ice, peak in late September each year up to around 18 M sq. kms., lowest level in late Feb each year, about 2.5 M sq. kms.
Antarctica + rest of Southern Hemisphere, ice as of July 23, 2011
Are we nearing an “ice free Antarctica”?
Where are the “icebergs breaking into oblivion”?
Greenpeace, WWF, others love to show pics of drifting icebergs
Once more, with feelings: “ice-free” planet Earth?
Drifting camera in the North Pole (left) and South Pole (right) as of July 23, 2011
Global average sea level change, 1993-2011 (Univ. of Colorado). About 50 mm rise over 18 yrs = 2.8 mm per year (or 28 cms per century)
Source: http://climate4you.com/
Global Tropical Cyclone, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), 1970 TO present
Source: WUWT, http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/global-climatic-history/
Historical Data
• Unprecedented warming vs. warming-
cooling cycles
• Anthropogenic vs. natural (the Sun, GCRs) factors
• Projections in 1990 vs. data available
The famous “hockey stick” graph of unprecedented warming developed by
Dr. Michael Mann, Univ. of Pennsylvania. Used by IPCC AR3 (2001).
This graph was removed in the latest IPCC AR4 (2007)
There was no precedent, no period warmer than past century’s warming? Data from oxygen isotope analysis of ice cores in Greenland.
Inverse relationship between GCRs and Sunspot number (SSN) in
each solar cycle. Active Sun has more SSN, which reduces GCRs in
the Earth's atmosphere, with reduces the cloud cover.
for a 1,000 count incr. in GCR activity as measured at Moscow, there appears to be:
(1) an increase in reflected sunlight (SW) of 0.64 Watts per sq. meter, probably
mostly due to an increase in low cloud cover;
(2) virtually no change in emitted infrared (LW) of +0.02 Watts per sq. meter;
(3) a Net (reflected sunlight plus emitted infrared) effect of 0.55 Watts per sq. meter
loss in radiant energy by the global climate system. – Dr. Roy Spencer
Source: "Cosmic rays linked to rapid mid-latitude cloud changes" by B.
A. Laken , D. R. Kniveton, and M. R. Frogley.
“…These results provide perhaps the
most compelling evidence presented
thus far of a GCR-climate
relationship. From this analysis we
conclude that a GCR-climate
relationship is governed by both
short-term GCR changes and
internal atmospheric precursor
conditions.”
Following a gradual rise of about 0.2 C from 1990 to 2000, global temps have
stopped increasing and have actually fallen slightly.,,, The “Best” IPCC
estimate and the higher 1.5 degree rise are ruled out by the data.
- Dr. Clive Best, http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=2208
Correlation between Cosmic Rays and Ozone DepletionQ.-B. Lu
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L
3G1, Canada1980–2007 covering two full 11-yr cosmic ray (CR) cycles, clearly showing the correlation between CRs and
ozone depletion, especially the polar ozone loss (hole) over Antarctica. The results provide strong evidence
of the physical mechanism that the CR driven electron-induced reaction of halogenated molecules plays the
dominant role in causing the ozone hole. Moreover, this mechanism predicts one of the severest ozone losses in 2008–2009 and probably another large hole around 2019–2020, according to the 11-yr CR cycle.
CO2 is a useful gas. It’s plant food, plant fertilizer. More CO2, more plant
growth. It is also a gas that we humans and our animals exhale.
Money, money, money, always sunny (in the AGW racket)
Environmental NGOs want to handle multi-billion $ climate fund
Concluding Notes
• AGW is a lie, it is not the truth. It violates Rotary’s 1st test, “Is it the truth?”
• The goal of AGW is global ecological central planning, or simply global environmental socialism.
• The central planners are the UN (FCCC, UNEP, WMO, etc) + governments + big environmental NGOs (WWF, Greenpeace, Oxfam, etc.)