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Warn-on-Forecast real-time 3DVAR in the Hazardous Weather Testbed. Travis Smith, Jidong Gao , Kristin Calhoun, Darrel Kingfield, Chenghao Fu, David Stensrud , Greg Stumpf & a cast of dozens NSSL / CIMMS. Overview. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Travis Smith, Jidong Gao, Kristin Calhoun, Darrel Kingfield, Chenghao Fu, David Stensrud, Greg Stumpf & a cast of dozens
NSSL / CIMMS
Warn-on-Forecast real-time 3DVAR in
the Hazardous Weather Testbed
OverviewInitial demonstration of real-time data assimilation ability to NWS forecasters. (2010-2012)Simulated warning operations (2011-2012)Comparison of 3DVAR data to single-radar and MR/MS severe weather algorithms.
EWP 2012 Spring Experiment
Timeline5 weeks of real-time operations4-6 visiting forecasters per week (28 total)
• Product training prior to arrival• Leverage NWS Weather Event Simulator (WES)• New this year
Monday: 1pm – 9pm• EWP Orientation and real-time operations
Tuesday-Thursday: 8-hour flex shift• Start-time dependent on yesterday’s forecast• Ops start:12pm – 3pm • Ops end: 8pm – 11pm
Friday: 9am – 1pm• Debrief, discussion, and NWS/partners webinar
Overview
Training
Schedule
Virtual WES technology and training gave participants
exposure to products offsite
This allowed Monday to be an operations day, maximizing time
for forecaster feedback
New In 2012: AWIPS-2NWS Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System 2 (AWIPS-2) is the next generation operational forecasting platform
Provides a familiar environment for the forecasters to evaluate the datasets and issue warnings via WarnGen
Domain Manager forSubsetting Experimental
Datasets
10 Floating Radar ProductGenerators for Level-III
Data Generation
Flexible Environment AllowingAny WFO to be Used in Operations
Additional Features:
Some available products (AWIPS2)
Max Updraft
Max Divergence above 8km
Simulated Reflectivity
3D Wind field (barbs, streamlines, color fill)
Some available products (AWIPS2)
0-3 km Max Vorticity
Updraft Helicity
Time accumulations (tracks) of Maximum Vorticity, Updraft Helicity, and Updraft Speed
Real-time 3DVAR supercells 2010-2012
• Automated tracking / data mining (Lakshmanan et al)
• Max 3-7km vertical vorticity > 0.01 s-1
• Lifetime 60 minutes or more
218 total85 w/ tornado(s)176 w/ other report
Number of radars used in analysis
Radars within 230 km of an analyzed storm cell
Storm distribution by range to nearest radar
5-minute time steps
Colman Co, TX: 2250 UTC, 11 June 2012
Max Updraft + 1 km winds Storm-top Divergence
Updraft HelicityMR/MS Hail Size (MESH)
Colman Co, TX: 2255 UTC, 11 June 2012
Max Updraft + 1 km winds Storm-top Divergence
Updraft HelicityMR/MS Hail Size (MESH)
Colman Co, TX: 2300 UTC, 11 June 2012
Max Updraft + 1 km winds Storm-top Divergence
Updraft HelicityMR/MS Hail Size (MESH)
Max Updraft Speed versus MR/MS hail size
estimate
All cases: R = 0.39 w/95% confidence interval of +/- 0.05
Max updraft speedW
(ms-
1 )
Vorticity versus single-radar azimuthal shear
All cases: R = 0.75w/ 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.02.
Updraft Helicity Distribution
Updraft Helicity Distribution
Receiving Feedback
Surveys
Live-Blogging
Forecasters can provide their pre-warning decision
making thoughts and images in real-time
Forecasters providing feedback on the
strengths/weaknesses of the products
Dedicated face-to-face time between forecasters
and developers on the evaluated products
Present summary of results to a wide audience
Weekly debriefing and WDTB webinar
Favorite products:
Updraft intensity Vertical VorticityStorm-top divergenceUpdraft HelicityUseful when “trying to diagnose a large number of storms” and “sitting on the fence” (about issuing a warning)
Forecaster Feedback
Forecaster Feedback
“highlighted the most intense areas of the storm” provided “information on cycling mesocylones”
Favorite products:
Updraft intensity Vertical VorticityStorm-top divergenceUpdraft Helicity
More “efficient to view than existing algorithms” to diagnosis storm intensity and rotation
Forecaster Feedback
Favorite products:
Updraft intensity Vertical VorticityStorm-top divergenceUpdraft Helicity
Real-time data Issues:
Data Latency (approx 5 min)
Distance from Radar (lack of low-level input)
Bad data quality leads to bad 3DVARside lobe contamination, improper
dealiasing
Forecaster Feedback
Other related work“Virtual Volume Scan” radar data to put input data on the same timing as 3DVAR processing.
Improved radar QC
Online resources3DVAR real-time and archive images:• http://tiny.cc/3DVAREWP web site:• http://ewp.nssl.noaa.govEWP Blog:• https://secure.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ewp/bl
og/
Archived WDTB webinars available:• http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov
/resources/HWT-EWP/