Washington County HRA

February 3, 2014

County Market Study:

Cottage Grove

Maxfield Research Inc.

Maxfield Research Inc. Housing Study

Purpose – independent third party analysis of county housing market– Document housing needs – Guide HRA strategic planning– Assist with funding applications– Define relationship between housing and economic

development

2

Study Objectives

– Examine existing housing market and demographic trends

– Research existing and projected economic and job sector data

– Identify future senior and workforce housing demand to 2030

– Identify senior housing trends– Develop affordable housing production scenarios

Submarket Map

10 submarkets East vs. West Cottage Grove

submarket includes– Cottage Grove– Grey Cloud Island– St. Paul Park– Newport

Met Council Projections

Cottage Grove Submarket Population Projections

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Washington County Population Projections

Met Council 2030

Met Council 2040

Maxfield Research 2030

Forecast Models

Met Council 2030 2040

Maxfield 2030

Cottage Grove Submarket 68,970 53,650 59,000

Met Council current “draft” projection for 2040 is lower than 2030 projection Maxfield in middle of two Met Council projections

2010 CensusCottage Grove Submarket 43,592

Cottage Grove Submarket 2010 Census Population

Cottage Grove Study Findings - Demographics

Census 1980

Census 1990

Census 2000

Census 2010

Forecast 2020

Forecast 2030

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

27,532 32,034

39,674 43,592

51,250

59,000

7,903 10,093 13,296 15,157

18,100 21,225

Cottage Grove Population and Households 1980-2040

Population

Households

Steady growth Decline in household size also evident

Cottage Grove Study Findings - Demographics

1980-2010 No. %

2010-2030No. %

Cottage Grove Submarket 16,060 +58% 15,408 +35%

County 124,565 +110% 83,934 +35%

Cottage Grove and County Population Change 1980-2010 and 2010-2030

Cottage Grove Study Findings- Jobs

9,368 total jobs– 12.7% of County

Education & Health Services largest– 25% of total

Manufacturing; Education & Health Services; Other Services high concentration

Between 2011-12– Number employees

drop 170; 1.8%

(County + 0.9%)– Number of businesses

+ 20

Cottage Grove Study Findings- Wages

Average Weekly Wages2012Wage

2011-12Change

Cottage Grove. $742 +0.1%

County $766 +1.7%

Metro $1,076 +3.0%

Low wages compared to County and Metro

Cottage Grove Study Findings- Employment

Cottage Grove and County Employment Change

No. %

1990-2012

Cottage Grove 2,135 +29%

County 35,072 +90%2010-2020

Cottage Grove 1,386 +14%

County 13,798 +19% 1990 2000 2010 2012 Forecast 2020

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

7,423

10,192 9,614 9,558

11,000

Cottage Grove Employment

Cottage Grove Study Findings- Housing

Existing General Occupancy Rental Inventory

Properties Units

Market Rate 9 589

Affordable 4 344

Total 13 1,277

Average Rent (July 2013)

Cottage Grove

Washington County

1 BR $745 $868

2 BR $867 $1,071

3 BR$1,151

$1,482

Cottage Grove Study Findings- Housing

Existing Senior Housing Inventory

Properties Units

Active Adult 1 4

Congregate 1 86

Assisted Living 2 62

Memory Care 2 62

Affordable 3 150

Total* 5 364* Some properties offer multiples service levels

Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand

Greatest demand for Single Family through 2030 Close to jobs in downtowns and Woodbury

Senior 2013-30

Rental

For-Sale Multifam.

Single Family

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

821

562

1,216

1,824

500

950

1,764

Cottage Grove Demand by Type

2013-20202020-2030

Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand

2013-2020 General Occupancy Demand– Single family 55% – Multifamily 30% – Rental 16%

Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand

Greatest demand for Single Family Move Up through 2030 No new rental development since Hinton Heights in 1993

Modest

Move-up

Executive

Modest

Move-up

Market Rate

Affordable

Sin

gle

Fam

ilyM

ultif

amily

Ren

tal

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

176

1323

265

570

380

225

275

91

1277

456

608

608

253

309

Cottage Grove General Occupancy Demand 2013-2020 and 2020-2030

2013-20202020-2030

Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand

2020 point in time demand for senior housing

Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand

2030 point in time demand for senior housing includes 2020 demand Norris Square built in 2010 Additional units needed to meet future demand as population ages

Affordable

MR Owner

MR Rental

Congregate

Assisted

Memory Care

Act

ive

Ser

vice

Enh

ance

d

- 50 100 150 200 250 300

175

103

188

55

278

22

Cottage Grove Sr. Demand in 2030