1

No. 182 June 6, 2020

State of the Nation – page 2

Employment – page 4

This and That – page 7

* * * * *

Quotes – page 10

* * * * *

President Trump – page 11

Judges Nominated and Confirmed – page 14

Disassembling – page 15

* * * * *

The Advocate – page 16

* * * * *

2020 – page 23

Democratic nominating contest – page 23

Selecting a Vice Presidential nominee – page 24

The General Election – page 29

What are the odds? – page 31

* * * * *

Congress – page 31

House – page 32

Senate – page 33

* * * * *

Women Will Get It Done – page 34

* * * * *

Mike Berman's

WASHINGTON POLITICAL WATCH

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* * * * *

*Any statements in this issue of the Watch which are not sourced are mine and

identified by “WW”.

* * * * *

State of the Nation

60% of registered voters say the country is on the wrong track, that includes

51% of men and 61% of women.

31% of registered voters say the country is headed in the right direction.

This includes 38% of men and 26% of women. [Econ/YouGov 5/26/20]

* * * * *

Is U.S. reliance on China for its supply chain a serious or not serious

problem?

Overall GOP Ind Dem

Very serious 40% 50% 35% 36%

Somewhat serious 36 33 31 42

Total serious 76 83 66 78

Somewhat not serious 9% 7% 15% 8%

Not serious at all 3 3 3 2

Total not serious 12 10 18 10

[Winston Group 5/22/20]

* * * * *

73% of Democrats and 59% of Republicans are wearing masks to fight

coronavirus. [WP 5/20]

* * * * *

More people now say that men have a better life than women in their

country. (Countries on the list below show a change of +18 or more in the 9-year

period.)

2010 2019 Change

Turkey 33% 57% +24

UK 39 61 +22

South 26 47 +21

3

Japan 29 49 +20

Spain 45 64 +19

Indonesia 29 48 +19

USA 39 57 +18

* * * * *

The following is from a survey conducted in 2018 but it seems particularly

relevant today.

Most Americans resist the U.S. government taking steps against

misinformation online that could limit freedoms.

• Freedom of info should be protected – 58%

• U.S. Government should take states to restrict – 39%

However, Americans are more open to tech companies taking action than the

government.

• Tech companies should take action – 56%

• Freedom of info should be protected – 42%

72% of Americans generally – including 85% of Rep/Lean Reps and 62% of

Dem/Lean Dems – think it is likely that social media platforms censor political

viewpoints.

64% of Rep/Lean Reps but only 28% of Dem/Lean Dems say that major

technology companies support the views of liberals over conservatives. [PEW

5/29/20]

* * * * *

For decades, sales of motor homes and travel trailers that you hitch to your

car were a reliable indicator of the beginning--and end--of a recession. Now sales

are rising as America enters its worst contraction since the Great Depression.

The United States has about 13,000 private RV Parks and an estimated 1.23

million trailer campsites and this does not cover campsites in state and national

parks. [Bloomberg.com 5/26/20]

* * * * *

My longtime friend from Texas, Jack Martin, produces a weekly publication

of survey research on a variety of subjects on which I have come to rely.

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It is called Perspectives/Data Analysis – Jack Martin. The subjects covered

are the Economy & Industry, Politics and Public Opinion, Foreign Relations,

Social Issues and Health & Science.

If you are interested in receiving a copy, please email Jack Martin at

jack@jpmcompany.com and include your name and email address.

* * * * *

Employment

The April unemployment data, including the demographics of the

unemployment for that month, which is the most recent available is not included

because it is irrelevant given the impact of coronavirus. The following are odds

and ends that describe the situation.

In March 2020, the unemployment rate was 4.4%. In April 2020, the rate

had risen to 14.7%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that had all persons

surveyed, accurately responded to a question about their employment status, the

unemployment rate in April would be been at least 20%. [Marketwatch 5/11/20]

Through May 23, 2020, 40.8 million people had filed unemployment claims.

The following were the unemployment rates in various battleground states

during April.

Michigan 22.7

Pennsylvania 15.1

National 14.7

Wisconsin 14.1

Florida 12.9

Arizona 12.6

N. Carolina 12.2

[Bureau of Labor Statistics]

In March, 40% of workers with incomes below $40,000 either lost their jobs

or were furloughed. That compares to 19% of those with incomes between $40,000

and $100,000 and 13% of Americans who make more than $100,000 per year.

[Steve Rattner 5/15/20]

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* * * * *

Nearly 60% of the over 700,000 jobs in the first wave of pandemic layoffs

were jobs held by women. But women in search of a new job often have different

requirements for employers compared with their male counterparts. Beyond the

usual concerns around hours, salaries, and benefits, women tend to want to know

about a company’s culture, policies around work-life balance, childcare,

mentorship, growth opportunities, and other factors. [Institute for Women’s Policy

Research -- Gender Avenger Blog 5/4/20]

* * * * *

Share of Essential Workers Who are Women

Women Total Workers

All essential workers 52% 48,710,000

Social workers 78%

Health Care 77%

Critical retails 53%

Medical supplies 46%

Food processing 38%

Delivery, warehousing 34%

Financial IT services 28%

Utility workers 23%

Farmers 23%

Hazardous materials 19%

Law enforcement 17%

Transit, transportation 15%

Defense 14%

Resource extraction 11%

[NYT 4/19/20]

* * * * *

Many think that men have more opportunities than women when it comes to

getting high-paying jobs.

Men have more Women have more About the

Opportunities Opportunities same

Getting high-paying jobs 54% 3% 38%

Being leaders in

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their communities 44% 3% 63%

Expressing their

political views 31% 3% 63%

Getting a good

education 11% 6% 81%

* * * * *

The following is an estimate of total federal employment in 2020.

2020 Estimate

Executive Branch Civilian

All agencies/Excluding Postal 2,215,006

Postal Service 584,914

Subtotal, Executive Branch Civilian 2,800,693

Executive Branch Uniformed Military

Department of Defense 1,384,111

Department of Homeland Security 41,766

Commission Corps (DOC, EPA, HHS) 6,734

Subtotal, Uniformed Military 1,432,611

Subtotal, Executive Branch 4,233,304

Legislative Branch 41,586

Judicial Branch 33,448

Grand Total 4,308,338

[Congressional Research Service – 2020 Budget]

* * * * *

In 1960 when Janet Reno graduated from law school, fewer than 1 in 25

lawyers was a woman. By the time she began her tenure as Attorney General,

women made up 1 in 4 lawyers. Today, just over 1 in 3 lawyers are women (38%).

As of 2018 there were 1,338,000 licensed active lawyers in the United

States.

7

At mid-career, when earnings peak, the top 10% of female lawyers earn

more than $300,000 a year while the top 10% of male lawyers earn more than

$500,000. [Census Bureau analysis of data from the American Community Survey

and decennial censuses.]

* * * * *

As of 2016 there were 953,695 actively licensed physicians in the United

States and the District of Columbia.

724,640 graduated from U.S. and Canadian medical schools

216,182 were international graduates

617,186 were male

319,145 were female (33.5%)

[Federation of State Medical Boards Census of Licensed Physicians 2016]

* * * * *

The trade deal with the United States, Canada and Mexico will take effect

July 1, 2020. [Public Policy Law 360]

* * * * *

This and That

* * * * *

The United States Supreme Court in a 5-4 decision rejected a request from a

California church to block limitations on the number of people who could attend

religious services during the pandemic. Chief Justice Roberts sided with the

liberals on the bench. [CNN 5/30/2020]

* * * * *

When it comes to use of social media, Americans report the following

usages:

• 69% - Facebook

• 59% - YouTube

• 35% - Instagram

• 21% - Pinterest

• 19% - Twitter

• 18% - Snapchat

• 16% - LinkedIn

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• 4% - Tumblr

23% of Democrats, 23% of Independents and 17% of Republicans describe

themselves as frequent social media users. [ Diana Orces PRRI 5/27/20]

* * * * *

Over the last year, there has been a growing partisan divide between

Republicans and Democrats over their trust in medical scientists and scientists

generally.

Rep/Lean Rep Dem/Lean Dem

Medical Scientists

2019 32% 37%

2020 31% 53%

Scientists

2019 27% 27%

2020 43% 52%

[Pew 4/26/20]

* * * * *

Ballotpedia is tracking 57 recall campaigns targeting 80 officials this year in

18 states. Eleven recalls have been scheduled. Eight have been approved and eight

have been defeated. In 2019 Ballotpedia covered 151 recall efforts against 230

elected officials. Of the 66 officials whose recalls made it to the ballot, 34 recalls

were successful for a rate of 52% [Ballotpedia 5/22/20]

* * * * *

Having run out of new things to read on a daily basis, I decided to try a

number of blogs of which there are an unlimited number on any subject you can

think of. Most of them did not tickle my interest but one did get continuing

attention.

The subject matter of the blog, “the environment”, had never been one of

special interest to me but as I glanced thru the content over a couple of days (it

publishes 5 days a week), on each day there was at least one item that drew my

attention and on most days there were several.

The blog is Monica and Miro’s Our Daily Planet. The authors are Monica

Medina and Miro Korenha.

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Monica was the Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Commerce and helped

to lead NOAA during the Obama Administration. She has spent most of her 30+

year career advocating for conserving the environment, protecting pristine areas in

the ocean and on land, and holding polluters accountable.

Miro has spent the last decade working on climate change and sustainability

issues for government, NGOs and businesses.

Monica and Miro cofounded Our Daily Planet because they wanted to bring

news of the environment and climate change to people all over the country in a

way that is easy for them to take in. To subscribe, click here or go

to www.ourdailyplanet.com.

A subscription is free although as you would assume there are opportunities

to contribute.

WW does know Monica Medina.

* * * * *

Many people have started new habits that they “plan” to continue when

various restrictions are lifted.

I drive my personal vehicle less 70%

I miss my old routines 61%

I am keeping up with my usual grooming habits 63%

I have new routines for grooming and personal care

that I hope to continue 30%

I am currently trying to eat healthier 52%

I am cooking from scratch more 52%

I have new cooking routines that I hope to continue 41%

I have new routines for grocery shopping that

I hope to continue 44%

I am keeping up with my usual exercise routine 44%

I am exercising more 34%

I have new exercise routines that I hope to continue 35%

[Ipsos 4/27-28/20]

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* * * * *

The 2020 NFL draft was unique and historic in more ways than one. Not

only was this year’s version of the annual Player Selection Meeting the first

completely virtual operation, it was the most watched ever.

55 million viewers watched on a combination of the NFL Network, ESPN,

ABC, ESPN Deportes and digital channels. [NFL.com 4/26/20]

* * * * *

According to Nancy Friedman, who runs Wordworking, a naming

consultancy in Oakland, California, there are 575 live trademarks that included

“zoom” or “xoom”. [NYT 5/10/2020]

* * * * *

In these incredibly difficult times of the pandemic it is nice to see that

regular life does go on. WW could not resist repeating the following from the

Nextdoor Glover Park North item on May 30, 2020:

“I’m in need of recommendations for an animal behaviorist...We need a

strategy for our cat and dog to coexist peacefully in our home. The cat is

non-aggressive and non-assertive and is 9 years old. The puppy is a nine-

month-old bird dog being trained for hunting.” [5/30/2020]

* * * * *

Quotes

“The future is here but it is not evenly distributed.”

-William Gibson

“If I didn’t have this budget problem hanging over my head, I would be loving this

job.”

-George H.W. Bush

“I don’t need more time. I just need a deadline.”

-Duke Ellington

“We need a president who is a cross between F.D.R., Justice Brandeis and Jonas

Salk. We got a president who is a cross between Dr. Phil, Dr. Strangelove and Dr.

Seuss.”

-Tom Friedman, NYT 4/26/20

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“Food is our common ground, a universal experience.”

-James Beard

* * * * *

President Trump

* * * * *

As of May 26, an Economist/YouGov poll found that 45% of registered

voters approved of the job that President Trump is doing as president while 53%

disapprove. 40% of women approve of the job he is doing along with 50% of men,

while 53% of women disapprove along with 46% of men.

The split between folks who see themselves as supporters of one party or the

other could not be more clear. 86% of Republicans approve of the job he is doing

while 14% disapprove. And, no surprise, 86% of Democrats disapprove of his

performance while only 11% approve.

Among Independents, 41% approve of his performance and 47% disapprove.

An interesting dichotomy that this survey demonstrates is the role that age

seems to play in levels of support for the president’s performance.

Among those between the ages of 18-29, 32% support the president’s

performance while 59% disapprove. In the last six weeks approval by this group

has dropped by 11 points and disapproval has grown by 9 points.

Among those 65 and older, 47% approve of his performance and 50%

disapprove. In the last six weeks, approval among this group has dropped by 10

points and disapproval has grown by 8 points.

A Politico/Morning Consult survey of registered voters completed on May

26, found 40% approving of how Trump is doing his job and 57% disapproving.

Gallup now does monthly or semi-monthly surveys. WW will include a

periodic polling summary–Registered and Likely Voters–by FiveThirtyEight.

Gallup (All Adults) FiveThirtyEight (Reg/Likely

voters)

Date Approval Disapproval Approval Disapproval

5/13/20 49% 48% 43.6% 51.9%

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4/14/20 45% 54% 44.4% 51.4%

3/22/20 49% 45% 43.2% 52.1%

2/16/20 49% 48% 43.4% 52.2%

1/29/20 49% 50% 43% 52.6%

1/15/20 44% 53% 42.2% 53/0%

12/15/19 45% 51% 44.1% 52.8%

11/14/19 43% 54% 41% 54.7%

10/31/19 41% 57% 42% 53.9%

9/30/19 40% 56% 42.1% 53.8%

8/30/19 39% 57% 41.3% 54.2%

6/16/19 43% 55% 42.6% 53.0%

1/27/19 37% 59% 40.4% 55.6%

9/30/18 42% 53% 41.5% 52.7%

1/14/18 38% 57% -- --

The following are some additional looks at the President’s job performance.

The numbers below are of Registered Voters unless followed by an “A” which

means “all voters” or “L” which means “likely voters”.

Date NBC/WSJ WP/ABC CNN FOX QUINNIPIAC

MAY’20 xxx 45/53 46/51 44/54 42/53

APR’20 46/51 xxx 44/53 49/49 45/51

MAR’20 46/51 49/47 45/52 48/51 41/54

FEB ’20 47/50 46/42 xxxx 47/52 43/53

JAN ’20 46/51 47/50 45/51 45/54 43/52

DEC ’19 44/54A 47/50 44/52 45/53 43/52

JUL ’19 45/52 47/50 xxx 46/51 40/54

CBS FOX

JAN ’19 43/54A 38/58 37/57A 36/59A 43/54

DEC ’18 43/54A xxx 39/52 xxx 46/52

JAN ’18 39/57A 38/58 43/53 37/58A 45/53

DEC ’17 41/56 xxx 36/59 36/57A xxx

* * * * *

The following are presidential job approval numbers from Gallup roughly 42

months into their first term (Johnson is an exception). Since Gallup is no longer

providing a steady stream of approval ratings, WW will use various other surveys

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to provide approval numbers on the current president when timely Gallup numbers

are not available.

Johnson 74% (6/64)

Eisenhower 73% (6/56)

Nixon 59% (6/72)

Reagan 55% (6/84)

Clinton 58% (6/96)

GW Bush 49% (6/04)

Ford 45% (6/76)

Obama 47% (6/12)

Trump 44% (6/20) – RCP Average

GHW Bush 37% (6/92)

Carter 32% (6/80)

On economic policy, Trump’s approval ratings continue to be on an upward

track.

Approve Disapprove

5/28/20 52% 44% WP/ABC (Adults)

5/26/20 52% 44% Econ/YouGov RV

4/14/20 51% 44% Econ/YouGov(RV)

2/17/20 53% 38% NBC/WSJ (RV)

1/12/20 57% 38% Quinnipiac

12/3/19 52% 42% Econ/YouGov(RV)

10/22/19 49% 45% Econ/YouGov(RV)

9/9/19 48% 48% CNN (RV)

7/23/19 52% 41% Fox News (RV)

1/1/19 47% 46% Econ/YouGov (RV)

1/16/18 46% 49% NBC/WSJ

On foreign policy, Trump’s approval ratings remain in negative territory.

Approve Disapprove

5/26/20 45% 53% Econ/YouGov (RV)

4/5/20 42% 46% Pol/MornConsult(RV)

2/18/20 46% 49% Econ/YouGov(RV)

1/12/20 43% 53% Quinnipiac

12/3/19 45% 49% Econ/YouGov(RV)

10/22/19 42% 51% Econ/YouGov(RV)

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9/9/19 40% 55% CNN (RV)

7/30/19 41% 51% Economist (RV)

1/1/19 42% 51% Econ/YouGov (RV)

7/18/18 38% 45% NBC/WSJ

1/16/18 36% 60% NBC/WSJ

* * * * *

43% of Americans approve while 55% disapprove of the way the President

has responded to the coronavirus pandemic.

This rating is in juxtaposition with the following individuals and institutions.

Approve Disapprove

Dr. Anthony Fauci, NIH 74% 19%

Vice President Pence 47% 44%

State government 70% 27%

Federal government 51% 45%

[Fox News 5/20/20]

* * * * *

As of June 1, 2020, the Washington Post Fact Checker has recorded 19,127

false or misleading claims by Trump.

* * * * *

Judges Nominated and Confirmed to Date

Because the U.S. Senate remains in Republican hands and the filibuster is no

more, the President can continue unchecked his goal of remaking the federal

judiciary. The chart below reflects the number of Article III court judges appointed

by all U.S. presidents since Jimmy Carter. The data below does not include the

U.S. Court of International Trade.

Total Supreme Ct Appeals Ct District Ct

Trump – thru 6/1/20 197 2 51 142

Obama – 8 years 325 2 55 268

GW Bush – 8 years 325 2 62 261

Clinton – 8 years 373 2 66 305

GHW Bush – 4 years 192 2 42 148

Reagan – 8 years 376 3 83 290

Carter – 4 years 259 0 56 203

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There are currently several nominations awaiting Senate action, 2 Courts of

appeals, 40 seats in the District Courts.

There is currently one vacancy on the U.S. Court of Appeals and 70 vacancies

on the U.S. District Courts. [USCourts/Wikipedia/List of federal judges appointed

by Donald Trump]

* * * * *

Disassembling

President Trump signed an executive order on April 22 temporarily

suspending immigration into the United States in response to the economic crisis

caused by COVID-19. The proclamation halts the issuance of green cards for 60

days and applies to individuals who, as of its signing, are outside of the United

States, do not have an immigrant visa and do not have official travel documents

other than visas. The order contains a range of exceptions, including exemptions

for health care professionals, immigrants already in the U.S. and those seeking

temporary visas.

There was broad support for the executive order.

65% support the substance of the Executive Order

83% of Republicans

67% of Independents

49% of Democrats

67% of Whites

61% of Nonwhites

63% of 18-39-year-olds

[WP/UofMD 4/21-26/20]

* * * * *

The Trump Administration will not impose any limits on perchlorate, a toxic

chemical compound that contaminates water and has been linked to fetal and infant

brain damage. The decision by Andrew Wheeler, administrator of the EPA,

appears to defy a court order that required the agency to establish a safe drinking-

water standard for the chemical by the end of June. [NYT 5/14/20]

* * * * *

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98 Environmental Rules the Trump Administration is Revoking or rolling back

Total Completed In Progress

Air pollutions and

emissions 27 19 18

Drilling and

extraction 19 11 8

Infrastructure and

planning 11 10 1

Animals 11 9 2

Water pollution 11 4 7

Toxic substances

and safety 8 6 2

Other 11 5 6

All 98 64 34

[NYT 5/10/20]

* * * * *

President Trump has announced that the United States will terminate its

relationship with the World Health Organization. The United States has been

contributing somewhere between $400 - $500 million dollars per year including

required and voluntary contributions. [Statnews.com 5/29/2020]

* * * * *

The Advocate

For most of the 231 year history of the Supreme Court of the United States,

the only way one could hear an oral argument at the time it occurred was to be in

the courtroom or perhaps in the building housing the court. The Supreme Court

moved into its current building in 1935.

Beginning in 1955, the Court began making audio recordings of oral

arguments. However, the recordings from a given Term of the Court were not

available to the public until the beginning of the next term.

Since 2010, audio recordings of arguments have been available to the public

at the end of the argument week, usually on a Friday.

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On May 4, 2020 that changed. At least for now, audio of the arguments is

available to the public at the time the arguments are made. (WW listened on

CSPAN.)

The first argument was in the case of U.S. Patent and Trade Mark Office vs.

Booking.com. In short, the USPTO refused to register the mark, Booking.com

sued. The lower courts reversed the USPTO and the USPTO appealed to the

Supreme Court.

The USPTO was represented by Erica Ross, Assistant to the Solicitor

General of the United States. Booking.com was represented by Lisa S. Blatt, a

partner in the law firm, Williams & Connolly.

This case marked a number of “firsts.”

Because of the pandemic, the Justices were not in the Supreme Court

Courtroom or in the building, nor were they together. The entire proceeding was

held by telephone.

Erica Ross - The Assistant Solicitor General was in her office at the Justice

Department.

Lisa Blatt - the lawyer for Booking.com was in the living room of her home.

Ordinarily, either lawyer, has about 2 minutes to make their case before one

or more of the Justices starts asking questions or making comments, in no

particular order. In this new situation, the Chief Justice called on the Justices in

order of their seniority starting with Justice Thomas who surprisingly did ask

questions.

This was the first time that Justice Thomas asked a question since March

2019, breaking at that time a three-year silence which was preceded by a 10-year

silence from the bench.

Blatt was arguing her 40th Supreme Court case, more than any other woman

in the history of the United States. Her record to date is 36 wins, 2 losses and now

2 cases that have not been decided.

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Each of the lawyers arguing the case had clerked for one of the sitting

Justices: Ross clerked for Justice Elena Kagan while she was a Justice and Blatt

clerked for Ruth Ginsberg while she was still on the D.C. Court of Appeals.

My friend Bob Barnett, a senior partner at Williams & Connolly, agreed to

introduce me to Blatt. Bob told me, “Lisa is an Historic Legal advocate. We are so

proud to have her back at Williams and Connolly and so admiring of all she has

done and all she continues to do – to advocate, to mentor, to lead, and to win.” We

talked – on the telephone of course – and Blatt agreed to being interviewed – on

the telephone – for the next issue of the Washington Watch.

This is another “first”. In the 181 issues since it began in 1987 the

Washington Watch has never profiled any person.

Who is Lisa S. Blatt?

Age 55, Married, two children

1989 – Graduated from the University of Texas Law School, summa

cum laude

1989 – 1990 Clerk for Judge Ruth Bader Ginsberg, U.S. Court of

Appeals, DC Circuit

1990 – Associate, Williams and Connolly

1993 – Office of General Counsel, Department of Energy

1996 – Office of the Solicitor, Department of Justice

2009 – Arnold & Porter, Head Appellate & Supreme Court Practice

2019 – Williams & Connolly, Head Appellate & Supreme Court

Practice

In preparing for my “meeting” with Blatt, I asked two people to share with

me the questions they would like to ask to go along with those I planned to ask.

(This resulted in three generations of questioners.)

Heidi S. Alexander, age 39, married, three children, Director of the

Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Council Standing Committee on Lawyer

Well-Being. (my niece)

Max Feinleib, age18, recent High School graduate who will attend

Northwestern University in the fall. (my grandson)

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The following are the questions put forth by the Washington Watch, Heidi

and Max, and answers from Lisa Blatt.

Wash. Watch: Why were you and Erica Rose chosen to participate in the first

Supreme Court argument giving day and date telephonic access to the public while

Court members were not in their Chambers?

Lisa: I really don’t know. It might be that they wanted a “fun, accessible”

case and perhaps it helped that the case involved two female advocates. Only 12%

of the cases argued this Term were by women. It was certainly a good opportunity

to showcase Erica Ross the Assistant Solicitor General.

WW: How often have you heard a question from a Justice that you had not heard

or considered during preparation for the hearing?

Lisa: On many occasions but not recently. The latest was probably around

my 26th argument before the Court. I was asked a question to which I said, “I don’t

know” – then Justice Roberts offered an answer, and I gratefully replied, “that

sounds right to me.”

WW: How many lawyers are in the appellate group at Williams and Connolly

which you head?

Lisa: Around 8 or 9 lawyers. The three top partners in the group are women:

myself, Amy Saharia and Sarah Harris. Sarah Harris was in the Department of

Justice when I invited her to come with me to Williams and Connolly. I had

worked with Sarah when I was at Arnold and Porter. The associates in the group

are a mix of women and men.

WW: Do you have a view as to whether the Court will continue to allow day and

date audio of oral arguments once the Court is back in its building?

Lisa: Many folks say that as soon as they can, they will go back to the old

way, but I think there is no way they will go back. It is great to have the arguments

live and I don’t know why you would wait until Friday to make the arguments

available.

WW: Why do you think it is that Justice Thomas seems to have found his voice in

this new setting. When he asked a question at your hearing it was the first time he

had asked a question since March 2019.

20

Lisa: The format works well for him. The process is very orderly which he

likes. He appears to be having the time of his life in this group of hearings. I have

always known he was engaged because he and Justice Breyer frequently chat and

chuckle during the arguments. Justice Thomas has stated that he thinks the

Justices talk too much and do not give the advocates enough time to answer. And

because Justice Thomas is so senior, his questions set the stage and framed the

issues of most, if not all, of the cases this month. In my opinion, he and Kagen

stole the show with their crisp and incisive questions and their great telephone

voices.

Heidi: Arguing and preparing to argue before the U.S. Supreme Court must be

extraordinarily stressful and time intensive. How do you manage your own stress

and the stress of your team to ensure that you preform your best and do not

jeopardize your well-being?

Lisa: Part-time has been critical. I don’t let work overtake my life. I don’t

feel passionate about working and I don’t like to work around the clock. The time I

spend doing things outside of work makes me more effective at my job and helps

me keep perspective. I love doing other things: music, shopping, coaching debate,

and now teaching college and law students.

At the end of my life, I know I will not be saying if I only had one more

dollar or if I only argued one more case, if I only had a certain job; rather,

at the end of my life, I will be thinking about the relationships I made.

Heidi: Compare your first argument with this most recent argument. Other than the

fact that it was held remotely, what has changed? What lessons have you learned?

If you could go back, what would you tell your young self?

Lisa: At the beginning I was very insecure. I was just trying to get through

those arguments without making a mistake. I became more confident and found my

“argument” voice around argument number 14. As to regrets both personally and

professionally, I wish I had stood up for myself more often and earlier in my life.

Heidi: How can more women join ranks of firm leadership and achieve gender

equity in law practice? How can we get more women to argue before the U.S.

Supreme Court?

21

Lisa: The numbers right now are appalling. Around 88% of Supreme Court

arguments are presented by men. This reminds me of a remark by Judge

Srinivasan, “it is hard for people to become what they can’t see.” I think we would

see more female advocates if over half the Court were women. So for starters, we

need more women Justices. Think about the last six appointments from the last 3

Presidents: Although Presidents Bush and Trump picked outstanding Justices, they

nominated 4 white men, all of whom were raised Catholic. Not much diversity

there. President Obama, on the other hand, picked two women: Justices

Sotomayor and Kagan. I was so happy to see that the Court picked the first case

ever streamed live to be a case argued by two women. It was a great thing for

lawyers, law students and aspiring law students to see.

Heidi: What does it take to win a case in the U.S. Supreme Court?

Lisa: You need to kill yourself to win or die trying. Supreme Court cases

are a zero-sum game. There is one winner and one loser. I have often said to

myself someone is going to die, and I do not want it to be me. That thought

motivates me. I also think you have to let yourself fall in love with your client and

not be afraid of becoming too emotionally attached to the case. I tend to take my

cases personally. If the shoe were on the other foot, I would want a lawyer who

cared as much as I do.

Heidi: How did you get where you are now? What challenges did you face and

how did you overcome those challenges?

Lisa: I learned to appreciate that it is ok to be rejected and feel disappointed

and humiliated by failure. These experiences are inevitable, normal, and just part

of life. The key for me was not to let my failures define me. If I fail at something, I

try to not dwell on it.

Heidi: Do you find meaning and purpose in your work? Are you satisfied with

your career?

Lisa: Yes, in that I am in the precise place where I belong and doing the

precise thing I was destined to do, being an advocate at Williams & Connolly.

Heidi: What advice do you have for young female litigators?

Lisa: Don’t let failure define you. You can decide that you missed an

opportunity…don’t dwell on it.

22

Max: How many cases did it take before the feeling of “OMG, I’m in the Supreme

Court!” wear off? Has it worn off?

Lisa: It never wears off.

Max: What legal issue are you most passionate about?

Lisa: The First Amendment. In terms of cases, I get most passionate if I

think my client is being bullied or being treated unfairly…I get very exercised.

Max: What do you see as the key for you winning all your Supreme Court cases?

Lisa: Treat it as the most important thing in your life…someone’s

something is on the line.

Max: What is the relationship like with the opposing lawyer? Do you communicate

at all before or after the case? Are there a couple of lawyers that you have gone

against many times and have developed a relationship with?

Lisa: I like my opposing counsel generally. For instance, I am very friendly

with and very much like Erica Ross, who was the opposing counsel in the

Booking.com case.

A lawyer that I met as my opposing counsel is Jay Lefkowitz, a partner at

Kirkland and Ellis. I was blown away by his argument style, talent, and skills. It’s

hard for me to think of a lawyer I have more respect for.

WW: I am told that you are known for your colorful language.

Lisa: I like to say things that are memorable. I think rhetoric can often

persuade and be a way to connect with people

WW: To end this profile I am including the final paragraph from an article

entitled “Reflections of a Lady Lawyer” written by Lisa Blatt and published in a

special joint law review issue sponsored by the law reviews from the sixteen “top”

law schools in the country. This issue commemorates the first time in history that

the Editors-In-Chief of each of the sixteen sponsoring law reviews was a woman.

23

“I end with a word to any Justices, Judges, clients, and lawyers in

management who read this: please do more to hire, support, and encourage

talented women who want to work. Women don’t look or talk like Perry

Mason, and you don’t want us to. We often are more creative, smarter, more

persistent, and harder-working than men, and we actually win cases. So call

me a Lady Lawyer. Just don’t underestimate me in Court.”

* * * * *

2020

The 59th presidential election will take place on November 3, 2020,

150 days from today.

* * * * *

“Political conventions have been a balloons-and-bunting mainstay of

American campaigns since the Republican Party gathered in Baltimore to nominate

Clay for president in 1931.”

WW attended all of the Democratic National Conventions from 1968 to

2004. At the 1984 convention I was there as part of the Mondale Campaign team

and in 1968 and 1972 I was there as part of the Humphrey for President

campaigns. I participated in the other seven conventions as part of the Democratic

National Committee team running the conventions.

* * * * *

Running in the Democratic Primary – It is effectively over

28 individuals announced their desire to seek the Democratic nomination for

president. [See April 24, 2020 Washington Watch for the complete list.]

Joe Biden (D) former Vice President, former U.S. Senator, Age 77 is the

presumptive nominee. All of the other candidates have either ended or suspended

their campaigns.

While Bernie Sanders has suspended his campaign, Biden has agreed that he

may hold the delegates he won through the Democratic convention,

Biden and Sanders have created joint task forces/working groups to advise

the Biden campaign on six key policy areas: climate change, criminal justice

reform, economy, education, health care and immigration.

24

The convention has been rescheduled from July to August and there is a real

possibility that it will be a virtual convention or a convention that is held in

multiple cities.

* * * * *

Since 1972, every Democratic presidential nominee has won first, second or

third place in Iowa or first or second place in New Hampshire until now. Biden has

broken the mold.

* * * * *

Selecting a Vice Presidential Nominee

Joe Biden has begun vetting potential nominees to join his ticket as a vice

presidential nominee. He has announced that he will be selecting a woman.

He has appointed four co-chairs of his vice-presidential vetting team: former

Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, Delaware U.S. Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester,

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti and Apple executive and former longtime Biden

aide, Cynthia Hogan. The vetting teams will be led by Bob Bauer, former White

House counsel, the campaign’s general counsel Dana Remus and former homeland

security adviser, Lisa Monaco.

Here is a list of candidates from whom various commentators think that Joe

Biden will select his running mate.

On the theory that the person selected to be Biden’s vice-presidential

running mate should be qualified to be president at any time after the 2021

inaugural, the list below is categorized by their governmental experience.

U.S. Senator + Governor

Maggie Hassan – U.S Senator from New Hampshire – Age 62

U.S. Senator since 2017

Governor of New Hampshire 2013-2017

Majority Leader New Hampshire Senate 2008-2010

Member New Hampshire Senate 2004-2010

Jeanne Shaheen – U.S. Senator from New Hampshire – Age 73

U.S. Senator since 2009

Governor of New Hampshire 1997-2003

Member New Hampshire Senate 1992-1996

25

First woman in American history to be elected as both governor and

U.S. Senator

U.S. Senator + Elected statewide position other than Governor

Kamala Harris – U.S. Senator from California – Age 55

Former presidential candidate 2020

U.S. Senator since 2017

Attorney General of California – 2011-2017

District Attorney of San Francisco –2004-2011

Catherine Cortez Masto – U.S. Senator from Nevada – Age 56

U.S. Senator since 2017

Attorney General of Nevada 2007-2015

U.S. Attorney office – District of Columbia

Governor + U.S. Representative

Michelle Lujan Grisham – Governor of New Mexico – Age 50

Governor of New Mexico since 2019

First Democratic woman elected Governor of New Mexico

First Latina elected a chief exec in the History of the United States

Member of U.S. House of Representatives 2013-2019

Bernalillo County Commissioner – 2010-2012

Secretary of Health of New Mexico – 2004-2007

Governor + Federal non-elective service

Janet Napolitano – Age 62

President, University of California since 2013

U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security 2009-2013

Governor of Arizona 2003-2009

Chair National Governors Association 2006-2007

Attorney General of Arizona 1999-2003

U.S. Attorney for Arizona 1993-1997

Governor

Gretchen Whitmer – Governor of Michigan – Age 48

Governor of Michigan – since 2019

Ingham County Prosecutor – 2016

26

Minority Leader of Michigan Senate – 2011-2015

Member Michigan Senate – 2006-2015

U.S. Senator + U.S. Representative

Kirsten Gillibrand – U.S. Senator from New York – Age 53

Former Presidential candidate 2020

U.S. Senator since 2009

Member U.S. House of Representatives – 2007-2009

Tammy Baldwin – U.S Senator from Wisconsin – Age 58

U.S. Senator since 2013

Member U.S. House of Representatives – 1999-2013

3 terms in Wisconsin State Assembly

Tammy Duckworth – U.S. Senator from Illinois – Age 52

U.S. Senator since 2017

Member U.S. House of Representatives – 2013-2017

Department of Veterans Affairs – 2009-2011

Illinois Dept of Veterans Affairs – 2006-2009

U.S. Army/Illinois National Guard – 1992-2014

Debbie Stabenow – U.S. Senator from Michigan – Age 70

U.S. Senator since 2001

Chair, Senate Democratic Policy Committee 2017-on

Chair, Senate Agriculture Committee 2011-2015

Secretary of the Senate Democratic Caucus – 2005-2007

Member U.S. House of Representatives – 1997- 2001

Member Michigan House of Representatives 1979-1991

U. S. Senator + Large County level elective position

Amy Klobuchar – U.S. Senator from Minnesota –Age 60

Former presidential candidate 2020

U.S. Senator since 2007

Ranking Member of Senate Rules Committee – 2017-on

Hennepin County Attorney – 1999 – 2007

Responsible for all criminal prosecution in largest county

27

U.S. Senator

Elizabeth Warren – U.S. Senator from Massachusetts - Age 70

Former presidential candidate 2020

U.S. Senator –since 2013

Vice Chair Senate Democratic Caucus 2017-on

Special Advisor CFPB 2010-2011

Law professor Harvard University 1992-1993, 1995-2012

U.S. House

Val Demings – U.S Representative from Florida – Age 63

Member U.S. House of Representatives since 2017

First Female Chief of the Orlando Police Department

Orlando Police Department – 20 years

Federal service – not elective

Susan Rice – Age 55

National Security Advisor to Barack Obama – 2013-2017

U.S. Ambassador to the United National – 2009-2013

Asst Secretary of State for African Affairs 1997-2001

Sally Yates – Age 60

Acting U.S. Attorney General – Jan. 20, 2017 to Jan. 30, 2017

U.S. Deputy Attorney General – 2015-2017

U. S. Attorney for the Northern District of Georgia 2010-2015

The first woman to hold that position

Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Georgia – 1989

No Federal Service

Stacey Abrams – Age 46

Former Georgia gubernatorial candidate - 2018

Member of Georgia House of Representatives 2007 -2017

Minority Leader 2011-2017

Keisha Lance Bottoms – Age 50

Mayor of Atlanta – since 2018

Atlanta City Council – 2010-2018

28

Ursula Burns – Age 61

CEO of Xerox 2009-2016

Chairman of the Board 2010 – 2017

Chairman and CEO of VEON – 2017

Mentioned but not in the game for one reason or another

Hillary Clinton – Age 72

Democratic candidate for president in 2016

First woman nominated for president by a major political party - 2016

U.S. Secretary of State – 2009-2013

United States Senator – 2001-2009

First Lady of the United States – 1993-2001

First Lady of the State of Arkansas – 1979-1981 and 1983-1992

Donna Shalala – U.S. Representative from Florida since 2019 - Age 80

President of the Clinton Foundation 2015-2017

President of University of Miami – 2001-2015

U.S. Secretary Health and Human Services – 1993-2001

Chancellor of University of Wisconsin – Madison – 1988-1993

President of Hunter College – 1980-1988

U.S. Assistant Secretary of HUD – 1977-1980

* * * * *

The Odds

WW is not including the odds on potential Democratic vice-presidential

nominees because so few of the potential candidates are included in

sportsbetting.ag. Odds for the presidential contest are included later in the

newsletter.

* * * * *

Republican Primary

Announced/Running

Donald Trump – President – Age 72

* * * * *

Many Republican primaries and caucuses have been canceled.

29

There will be no debates.

The Republican nominating convention is scheduled for August 24-27, 2020

in Charlotte, NC. So far there has been no public discussion of the possible

cancelation of the convention.

* * * * *

The General Election

The upcoming presidential election is not, in fact, a national election. On the

question of which states are in play, there are as many answers as there are

predictors. The following is one group of such states: Arizona, Florida, Maine,

Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, New Hampshire,

North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Other predictors would add Nevada,

Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. Take your pick. At some later stage WW will try to

score individual states.

Trump Biden

Real Clear Politics 5/28 42.5% 48.4% Average

ABC/WP 5/28 43% 53%

YouGov 5/26 42% 45% All RV unless otherwise

Fox News 5/20 40% 48% noted

CNBC 5/17 44% 39% LV

Quinnipiac 5/18 39% 50%

YouGov 5/12 43% 47%

CNN 5/10 46% 51%

YouGov 5/5 42% 46%

Monmouth 5/4 41% 50%

* * * * *

43% of Americans are favorable in their feelings toward the President while

55% have unfavorable feelings toward him. Notably, those with “strongly

unfavorable” feelings (43%) exceed the number who are “strongly favorable”

toward the President (28%).

48% have favorable feelings toward Joe Biden while 46% have negative

feelings toward him. Those with “very strongly unfavorable” feelings (31%)

exceed the number who are “strongly favorable” toward Biden (23%).

30

Americans were asked whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden would be better

on several issues. Here are the results.

Trump Biden

Dealing with the economy 45% 42%

Relations with China 37% 43%

Coronavirus 37% 46%

Health care 33% 50%

Woman’s rights 27% 50%

[Fox News 5/20/20]

* * * * *

Americans trust Trump and Biden equally (47%) to direct the federal

government’s efforts to help the economy recover from the coronavirus outbreak.

However, they trust Biden (50%) more than Trump (42%) to direct the federal

government’s efforts to control the virus. [WP/ABC 5/28/20]

More Americans have an unfavorable impression as opposed to a favorable

impression of both Trump and Biden although the margin of unfavorability is

greater for Trump than Biden.

42% of Americans have a favorable impression of Trump while 55% have

an unfavorable impression of him.

46% of Americans have a favorable impression of Biden while 48% have an

unfavorable impression of him. [WP/ABC 5/28/20]

* * * * *

“As I’ve written previously, a good economy has not been the boon to Trump

that it was to previous presidents. Back in January, when the president was enjoying

some of his highest ratings in the economy, his overall job approval was still mired

in the mid to low 40’s. As Ron Brownstein astutely observed in a CNN piece from

that month, Trump was failing to convert those strong approval ratings to

votes.…But Trump drew just 55% of voters who expressed such economic

satisfaction when matched against former Vice President Joe Biden in the December

national CNN poll; Biden held an 80-point lead among the minority of voters who

called the economy “only fair or poor”, enough to top Trump overall.” [Amy Walter,

Cook Political Report May 28, 2020]

* * * * *

31

Trump supporters are more likely to say they will vote in November, are

generally more enthusiastic, and more likely to be registered to vote.

Trump Biden

Will definitely vote for 84% 68%

Are enthusiastic about supporting 87 74

Are very enthusiastic 64 31

Are registered to vote 84 78

Are absolutely certain to vote 78 67

[WP/ABC 5/28/20]

* * * * *

What are the odds?

Here are the odds if you want to place a bet on the 2020 presidential

election. On May 30 Trump was leading with -135 and Biden was in second place

with +110. By the end of the day June 2, they had switched.

Joe Biden -130 (Better needs to bet $130 to win $100.)

(A winning bet ends up with the better

receiving $230.)

Donald Trump +100 (Better needs to bet $100 to win $100.)

(A winning bet ends up with the better

receiving $200)

[sportsbetting.ag]

* * * * *

Congress

More than half of the members of Congress are millionaires according to

recent personal financial disclosures. The median net worth of members of

Congress who filed disclosures last year is just over $1 million. Senator Rick Scott

(R-FL) is the wealthiest lawmaker in the Senate and overall, with nearly $260

million in net assets. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-MT-AL) is the richest House member

with $189 million. [Open Secrets April 23, 2020]

49% prefer that the 2020 elections deliver a Congress that is controlled by

Democrats while 40.8% prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans. [RCP

Average 4/14/20]

32

Approval of the Congress generally remains quite bleak.

Approve Disapprove

Real Clear Pol. 5/26/20 28.5% 56.8%

Real Clear Pol. 4/14/20 29.3% 56.8%

Real Clear Pol. 2/11/20 22.4% 65.6%

Real Clear Pol. 1/14/29 22.4% 65.2%

Real Clear Pol. 12/3/19 22.4% 65.6%

Real Clear Pol. 10/29/19 23.0% 64.8%

Real Clear Pol. 9/10/19 16.6% 71.4%

Real Clear Pol. 8/6/19 17.2% 71.4%

Real Clear Pol. 6/11/19 20.0% 69.8%

Real Clear Pol. 1/1/19 19.6% 69.3%

* * * * *

[WW uses David Wasserman and the Cook Political Report for the House chart

below.]

As of May 28, 2020, 37 incumbent members of the House are not seeking

re-election – 10 are Democrats and 27 are Republicans.

THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

2020

Democrats 233

Republicans 197

Independents 1

Vacancies 4

Democrats Republicans

Safe in 2020 183 164

Likely 19 17

Lean 18 12

Toss Up

17 5

* * * * *

33

THE SENATE

[WW uses Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections

for the Senate chart below. When those two organizations do not agree, WW uses

Sabato as a tie breaker.]

In 2020, Republicans will be defending 23 seats while Democrats will be

defending 12 seats. It is unlikely that Republicans will lose control of the Senate in

this election although chances appear to be improving for the Democrats.

Here are the changes from the last issue of the Watch.

Rep. Doug Collins seems to have a substantial lead over Senator Kelly

Loeffler in the Senate Republican primary in Georgia. Rep. Kennedy appears to be

leading Senator Ed Markey in the Democratic primary by a lead that varies

depending on which poll you read.

Republicans 53

Democrats 45

Independents 2

Democrats Republicans Independent

Seats not up in 2020 33 30 2

Safe in 2020 8 11

Coons Sullivan

Durbin Cotton

Markey Risch

Warner Cassidy

Booker Hyde-Smith

Merkley Sasse

Reed Inhofe

Shaheen Rounds

Moore Capito

Wyoming (Enzi)

Tennessee (Alexander)

Likely 2 5

Smith McConnell

N. Mexico (Udall) Cornyn

34

Perdue

Loeffler

Graham

Lean 2 4

Peters Ernst

Gardner Jones (AL)

Daines

Kansas (Roberts)

Toss Up 0 3

McSally

Collins

Tillis

* * * * *

Women Will Get It Done

A federal judge in Los Angeles on May 1st dismissed demands by the United

States women’s soccer team for pay equal to that of the men’s team. A

spokeswoman for the women’s players said they will appeal.

“We are confident in our case and steadfast in our commitment to ensuring

that girls and women who play this sport will not be valued as lesser just because

of their gender,” the spokesperson said. [NBC News 5/1/2020]

* * * * *

The number of women running Fortune 500 companies has hit a new record.

Currently there are 37 women leading Fortune 500 companies, an increase from

last year’s 33 women which was at the time a record. [Fortune 500 5/19/20]

* * * * *

Women in Elective Office 2019

126 women serve in the U.S. Congress – 23.6%

25 women serve in the Senate - 25%

101 women serve in the House - 23.2%

In 1999 - 12.1% of the U.S. Congress were women

35

In 2009 – 16.8% of the U.S. Congress were women

91 women serve in Statewide Elective Executive Offices

Women hold 29.3% of the 311 available offices

48 Democrats, 41 Republicans, 2 non-partisans

9 Governors

15 Lt. Governors

7 Attorneys General

12 Secretary of State

11 State Treasurer/Chief Financial Officer

3 State Comptroller

10 State Auditors

24 (Chief educational official, Commissioners of Insurance, Railroad,

Labor, Corporation, Public Service, Public Utilities, Lands, and

Agriculture)

There has been only modest progress in the number of women holding

statewide elective office since 1999 when 27.6% of statewide office holders

were women.

2,132 women serve in State Legislatures

Women hold 28.9% of the 7,383 state legislators

Women hold:

25.8% of the 1,972 State Senate Seats

30% of the 5,411 State House Seats

Nevada is the only state with a legislature that has a majority of its

members being women – 52.4%

West Virginia is the state with the lowest number of its legislature

being women – 13.4%

Since 1999, there has been a 30% increase in the number of women in

state legislatures

Among the 100 largest cities in the United States, 27 had women

mayors

Among the 284 cities with population of 100,000 or more 20.8% had

women mayors

Among the 1,366 mayors of cities with population of 30,000 and

above, 22% are women

36

[Center for American Women and Politics]

* * * * *

Restaurants

Current conditions have resulted in no recent restaurant visits, only takeout

from a number of restaurants about which WW has previously written.

Mike 325 7th St, NW, STE 825

Washington, DC 20004

202- 728-1100