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Tim aus der Beek
Center for Environmental Systems
Research (CESR), University of Kassel
Water: A central challenge for thefuture of agriculture
Global Thinking – Local Responsibility --- Witzenhausen, 15.Oct 2009
Overview
Tim aus der Beek
Agriculture and global change
Adaptation and mitigation
Lessons learned? The Aral Sea – An ecological disaster
Global irrigated agriculture – current state
Global irrigated agriculture – current state
World map of irrigated areas
Irrigated Area - Europe
Global irrigated agriculture – current state
Source: CESR,
Kassel University
Irrigated Area - Europe
3 1%
2 1%3 %
11%
15%
2 %
10 %
4 %
1%
1%0 %
0 %0 %
1% 0 %
Global irrigated agriculture – current state
Source: CESR,
Kassel University
Global irrigated agriculture – current state
Source: FAO-Aquastat
Global irrigated agriculture – current state
Agriculture and Global Change
Source: IPCC
Agriculture and Global Change
Uncertainty of Precipitation ScenariosComparison of change in Precipitation between 2 climate models
(Changes between 1961-90 and A2 scenario 2070s (HadCM3 & ECHAM4))
Agriculture and Global Change
World food demand will increase!
Agriculture and Global Change
How Much More Irrigation? World Food Demands for 2050
0
2.000
4.000
0
100
200
300
Food prod.Grain
[Million t/a]
Source:
IMPACT model (IFPRI) calculations
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Global Orchestration
TechnoGarden
AdaptingMosaic
Order fromStrength
Current
World
Sub-SaharanAfrica
SCENARIOS for 2050
Agriculture and Global Change
Impacts on irrigated agriculture
Agriculture and Global Change
Impacts on agriculture
Agriculture and Global Change
Impacts on agriculture
• higher temperatures → higher evapotranspiration⇒ higher plant water requirements
⇒ increase in irrigation⇒ increase in abandoned land
• longer vegetation period and less frozen soil⇒ higher yields and changes in crop variety
• more climatic and hydrological extremes⇒ droughts decrease yields⇒ floods can destroy harvests
Agriculture and Global Change
Impacts on agriculture
• higher temperatures → higher evapotranspiration⇒ higher plant water requirements
⇒ increase in irrigation⇒ increase in abandoned land
• longer vegetation period and less frozen soil⇒ higher yields and changes in crop variety
• more climatic and hydrological extremes⇒ droughts decrease yields⇒ floods can destroy harvests
Adaptation and Mitigation
Adaptation – Actions for anticipating or reacting to climate change
• New planting date• Increased fertilization rates • New livestock species• New cultivars with more appropriate traits• Irrigation applications
Adaptation and Mitigation
Save water with efficient irrigation technology!
Paddy irrigation
Efficiency: 0.3
Furrow irrigation
Efficiency: 0.4
Sprinkler irrigation
Efficiency: 0.7
Drip irrigation
Efficiency: 0.85
Adaptation and Mitigation
Investments in waterinfrastructure arenecessary and unavoidable!
Adaptation and Mitigation
An example from the field:
Virtual Water (www.waterfootprint.org)
Adaptation and Mitigation
Adaptation and Mitigation
World map of irrigated areas
Adaptation and Mitigation
Mitigation – Actions to lessen the intensity of climate change; focused on reducing the level of emissions
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
CO2 CH4 N2O
Energy/IndustryLand Use
Sources of GHG emissions
Adaptation and Mitigation
Adaptation and Mitigation
Net ChangesCropland (1700 – 1990) ~ x 4 Irrigated cropland (1800 – 1990) ~ x 24Forest/woodland/tree cover (1700 – 2000) ~ x 0.85Grassland (1700 – 2000) ~ x 0.80 – 0.99
Historical Land Cover Change(LUCC Science Plan, 2000)
Aral Sea – Irrigation induced ecological disaster
For example:Quantity of fertilizerTiming of plowingType of plowing Waste management of livestock
Mitigation: Reducing greenhouse gasesExample: Land Management
Aral Sea – Irrigation induced ecological disaster
The Aral sea basin Source: Micklin 2007
Aral Sea – Irrigation induced ecological disaster
Aral Sea Water BalanceSource: Micklin 2007
Aral Sea – Irrigation induced ecological disaster
Aral Sea Basin Characteristics
0102030405060708090
100
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Irr. Area Population Species Salinity
Aral Sea – Irrigation induced ecological disaster
Thank you very much!
Land use map Europe (Corine + GLCC)
Agriculture and Climate Change
Global Air Temperature Increases
Lower emissions pathway
Temperature increase under high emissions pathway
Global surface
temperature increase, oC
(relative to 1980-99)
Source: IPCC Working Group I Report(2007)
