Water and energy innovations: the complexity of evidence-based policies Peter Tindemans Secretary General EuroScience CAST, Kunming, 23 May 2014 Peter

Peter Tindemans, Kunming, 23-05-2014 1

Water and energy innovations: the complexity of evidence-based policies

Peter TindemansSecretary General EuroScienceCAST, Kunming, 23 May 2014


Key message

For most people evidence/science-based policy:• Is innovation/technology/science proven and working,

and is it safe– Is GM food safe?– Is nuclear energy safe?– Is climate change proven?

• It is more complex:– Is innovation/technology/science working&safe?– Is policy to introduce it effective?– Is there wide support base for policy?

• Especially when, like in energy or water management, innovations need comprehensive policies to succeed


Overview

1. Introducing innovations now different from times of Pasteur, or early days of computers; operational analysis, formal policy designs help, but practice??

2. Three dimensions of evidence-based policies; three examples.

3. Water Temples in Bali4. Introducing renewable energy sources in Germany5. Smart metering in the Netherlands6. The modern reality of science and society

interactions; Responsible Research and Innovation; role of EuroScience


Now is different from past

• Society looks differently at risks, uncertainties around science and innovation

• Compare 19th century: early chemistry, Pasteur, Koch; or in 20th century: computers

• Probably genetically modifying biological organisms major cause

• Recently: are our methods sound enough? See Collins and Tabak (2014) about lack of reproducibility preclinical research; and issues around validity clinical trials


New methods to help develop policy, yet..

• Operational analysis, cost-benefit analysis, systems dynamics, simulation techniques, advanced social science statistical tools, formal policy designs, …

• Yet, persistent neglect, denial: if only politicians would accept science, but invoke broader reasons.

• Example (Freakonomics): drop as of 1992 crime rates young males US due to zero tolerance? Levitt et al: legalization abortus 1982!


Not only the facts

Two more dimensions• Evidence-based policies must be effective, and

avoid unintended, undesirable side-effects• The game is not just between scientists and

politicians. Population at large, local communities increasingly to be drawn in– Traditional knowledge– Participatory mechanisms– Contextualized knowledge


Water Temples in Bali**

• Small, densely populated; strong Buddhist and Hindu traditions

• High volcanoes: mountainous countryside• Very fertile soil, abundant rainfall, tropical

climate• So: ideal for agriculture, esp. rice• If only: how control water for year-round use

by all? Water management

**Ref: Stephen Lansing (Univ Arizona) & colleagues and students


Water Temples in Bali


The Subak system (1)

• Since 1000 years: (steep) hills turned into layered terraces

• Water from top (river, well) distributed by little canals, weirs, tunnels, dams, sluices, dividers

• Reservoir on top with temple and priest• Group of farmers along single source of water form

community subak who cooperate and coordinate tilling• Neighbouring subaks form complex, very adaptive

system of watermanagement• High productivity, high sustainability


The Subak System (2)

• Two harvests per year, each following three steps– 1. Growing rice plants: paddies under water– 2. Harvesting: paddies dry– 3. Paddies fallow; paddies under water

• Requires per subak: fine-tuned irrigation planning; synchronization of controlled flooding; coordinated rice planting; adaptive overall management to cope with changing weather,environmental, local climate conditions

• Natural fertilization: potassium, phosphate (volcanic soil) washed out by rain & transported to paddies through canals

• Crucial step 3: rice pests and rodents deprived of habitat and nutrition through synchronized flooding


Meddling with the system or not?• Durch colonial rulers studied (cultures, agricultural practice, water management),

understood system, and left it in place: early (19th century) evidence-based policy

• In 1960-ies, 1970-ies modern times came in wake of chemical pesticides, artificial fertilizers, high-yield rice varieties, mechanical irrigation technologies, and large-scale, top-down planning. Credits, organization, logistical planning

• In Bali central 5-year plans introduced, consultants, Asian Development Bank, mechanical gates, fertilizers, new varieties requiring more fertilizer; fallow periods abandoned to increase production; pests emerged, pesticides were used, pests became resistant, hence more pesticides.

• Farmers couldn’t handle mechanical gates; hence chaotic irrigation; hence less production; ecological disaster in coastal areas as fertilizers washed into sea.


Understanding the system and social networks

• Initial reaction of planners and consultants ro farmers wishing to go back: “Don’t stand in the way of modernization”

• Eventually Lansing, as well as ADB reports started turning things around

• Lansing did simulation studies with models of adaptive networks (Santa Fe)

• Have all farmers incentives? Yes, pest control • Is system self-organizing? Yes, adopt more productive

solutions of neighbouring Subaks, and boundaries between Subaks are non-rigid

• Other issues: Bali has caste system; yet Subaks are non-hierarchical. No time now


Massive stimulation renewable energy in Germany

• As of early 90-ies German govt set evermore ambitious goals for production of electricity by– Hydropower– Municipal and industrial waste (biomass)– Photovoltaic solar power– Wind power

as well as heat by biomass• Research but especially stimulating introduction through financial incentives

– 1991 Electricity Feed-in Act– 2000 Renewable Energy Sources Act

• Very ‘effective’ in terms of electricity volume produced– But: impact on overall energy production system?– Impact on grid?– On consumer and industry prices?– On international market distortions?


Share of renewables in net electricity consumption: targets Germany

Peter Tindemans, Kunming, 23-05-2014

Share of renewable energy sources in net electricity consumption, Germany

• 25,000 wind mills or parks with average size of 2.6 MW• Renewable energy industry employs 377,000 persons

(2012) vs 30,000 in 1998

16

Renewable Energy Sources ActGoals, choices• Stimulate producers of renewable energy• Guarantee that energy produced is used• Build in an incentive for innovationHow?• Any producer gets price fixed for 20 years, covering production cost

given technology and size• Network operators nearest to renewable producers have to feed this

electricity into net before using conventionally produced electricity• Innovation to come from reduction of price with 1% per month for new

producers• Who pays resulting high consumer prices? Govt. does not pay;

consumers do• Since industry balks, they pay less, much less if it is heavy electricity userPeter Tindemans, Kunming, 23-05-2014


Is this evidence-based policy, given wide measure of evidence?

Depends on how broad one understands ‘effectiveness’ • Huge increase in renewable energy production and associated decrease in CO2• Considerable number of jobs in renewable energy industryBut• Households prices higher. Acceptable? Sustainable?• Decentralization OK, but what is short- and medium-term impact on conventional power

plants (incl employment)?• How deal with variability? Photovoltaic solar systems 50% of net electricity consumption

on sunny weekends. Cannot continue with conventional plants as back-up. Needs massiv storage. How?

• Implications of variability and geographical unpredictability for grid?• Formally not subsidies; how long will argument stand in face of EU level playing field

laws? • Esp. also international market distortions, and not by ‘natural’ opportunities (US shale

gas and oil) by govt. policy• If ‘subsidies’ will be reduced or disappear, how sustainable is renewable production

industry?


Smart metering in the EU, especially the Netherlands (NL)

• Smart metering: connecting energy (electricity, gas) and perhaps water use meters to utility (wireless, or perhaps Internet); readings done and transmitted automatically to utilities which inform consumers, say once per 2 months, about use.

• EU Directive 2006 requires EU member states to put national legislation to Parliaments for introducing smart metering. Purposes:– Improved energy end-use effectiveness– Managed demand– Promotion of renewable energy

All three through enabling users to make better decisions• Went rather unnoticed, as happens so often.• When national legislation came up in NL, trouble began• Privacy, security were held up against the smart meters;

government looking largely at: is it feasible? Are utilities ready to introduce? Who should do the remote reading?


Issues about privacy and security

Many issues have been raised, and none are completely unfounded, such as:• Will utility companies as Big Brother monitor my activity

pattern through electricity an gas use?• Will they sell my data for advertisement purposes?• Can someone hack the system and fiddle with electricity bill?• Can the utility artificially increase my use and bill?• Can third parties listen in?• Will smart meters unintentionally register and transmit other

data?• Can I refuse a smart meter, even if I live in appartment

building with central provisions?


Mr Smartmeter meets Mr Smartphone


ICT has pros and cons; breaking the deadlock

• Obviously Information and Communication Technologies allow better optimization and control of large-scale systems, such as grids

• They allow citizens to be in charge on mor individual level• But they allow all sorts of manipulation• All sorts of almost undetectable illeggal behaviour• Governments to widen their concept of evidence

– Is there support– Can support be built– Should we forego some technical possibilities?

• Breaking the deadlock in NL• Regional grid operators established a framework all operators have

to comply with on security• Govt. accepted in the end opt-out clause, and made sure housing

corporations and grid operators inform their clients


EuroScience and RRI

• New reality of interaction of science and technology with society not just lesson for governments.

• Researchers and innovators to incorporate it• RRI: Responsible Research and Innovation, the new

buzz word in the EU research and innovation funding programme

• Needs clarification; good examples to be collected and validated to help researchers (and other stakeholders) in practical ways

• EuroScience key player in major EU-funded project

Documents

Water and energy innovations: the complexity of evidence-based policies Peter Tindemans Secretary General EuroScience CAST, Kunming, 23 May 2014 Peter