Water and Sustainability in the

Columbia BasinJennifer C. Adam

Assistant ProfessorCivil and Environmental Engineering

CSANR Advisory Committee Meeting, Dec 13, 2011

Research Expertise Water resources and hydrologic

interactions with Climate change and climate variability Land cover / land use change Socio-economics

Geographic scales of interest Watershed to global Current research emphasis at regional scale

Computer-based modeling

Hydrologic Modeling Primer

Land Cover

Soils

Rivers

Elevation Algorithms / Assumptions

Process-based model Streamflow

EvaporationTranspirationSnowpackSoil Moisture etc…

Outline Columbia Basin Water Supply & Demand

Forecast Regional Earth System Modeling Future Directions

THE COLUMBIA BASIN WATER SUPPLY & DEMAND FORECAST

Background Team Modeling capabilities developed Results

The Columbia River Basin: Competing UsesOut of Stream Agricultural Municipal Industrial

In Stream Hydropower Flood Control Fish Flows Navigation Recreation

Background: Need for a Columbia Basin Water Supply & Demand Forecasting

Every 5 years, the Washington State Department of Ecology’s office of the Columbia River (OCR) is required to submit a long-term water supply and demand forecast to the Legislature

Washington State University (WSU) was assigned to develop the 2030s forecast for water supply and out-of-stream demand

Changes in climate and water demand are expected to exacerbate the current complexity of managing the water resources of the basin

The forecast helps improving understanding of where additional water supply is most critically needed, now and in the future

Projected Precipitation Change in the Pacific Northwest Region

Precipitation seasonality: decrease in summer, increase in other seasons

Annual precipitation changes uncertain

Mote and Salathe 2010

Projected Temperature Change in the Pacific Northwest Region

All seasons projected to warm

Annual temperature projections more robust

Mote and Salathe 2010

Impacts of Warming on Streamflow Seasonality in Snow-Dominant Watersheds

Washington State Watershed Types

Elsner et al. 2010

Watershed Types in the Region

Courtesy Alan Hamlet

WSU Team Civil and Environmental Engineering / State of Washington Water Research Center

Jennifer Adam, Assistant Professor Michael Barber, Professor and Director of SWWRC Kiran Chinnayakanahalli, Postdoctoral Associate (SWWRC) Dana Pride, Web Designer (SWWRC) Kirti Rajagopalan, PhD Student Shifa Dinesh, PhD Student Matt McDonald, MS Student

Biological Systems Engineering Claudio Stöckle, Professor and Chair Roger Nelson, Research Associate Keyvan Malek, PhD Student

School of Economics Michael Brady, Assistant Professor Jon Yoder, Associate Professor Tom Marsh, Professor and Director of IMPACT Center

Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources Chad Kruger, Director Georgine Yorgey, Research Associate Sylvia Kantor, Research Associate

Modeling Capabilities Developed Started with tools developed at the

University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW CIG), and added:

1. Integrated surface hydrology and crop systems modeling

2. Inclusion of water management1. Reservoirs2. Curtailment

3. Interaction between biophysical and economic decision making models

1. Hydrology/Crop Model Integration

1. Weather (D)

2. SoilSoil layer depths

Soil water content

3. Water flux (D)Infiltrated water

4. Crop type

Irrigation water = Crop Water Demand /irrigation

efficiency

Sow dateCrop interception

capacityCrop phenologyCrop uptake (D)Water stress (D)

Current biomass (D)Crop Water demand (D)

Harvest dayCrop Yield

VIC Hydrology CropSyst

D – communicated daily

Crops Modeled

Winter Wheat Spring Wheat Alfalfa Barley Potato Corn Corn, Sweet Pasture Apple Cherry Lentil Mint Hops

Grape, Juice Grape, Wine Pea, Green Pea, Dry Sugarbeet Canola

Onions Asparagus Carrots Squash Garlic Spinach

Generic Vegetables

Grape, Juice Grass hay Bluegrass Hay Rye grass

Oats Bean, green Rye Barley Bean, dry Bean, green

Other pastures

Lentil/Wheat type

Caneberry Blueberry Cranberry

Pear Peaches

Berries

Other Tree fruits

2. Inclusion of Water Management

3. Interactions with Economic Modeling

Results A small increase of around 3.0 (±1.2)% in average

annual supplies by 2030 compared to historical (1977-2006)

Unregulated surface water supply at Bonneville will

The irrigation demand under 2030s climate was roughly 2.5% above modeled historic levels under average flow conditions

Most severe impacts for specific watersheds

14.3 (±1.2)% between June and October

17.5 (±1.9)% between November and May

Changes in Streamflow Seasonality due to Climate Change

2030s Range

Snake River

Columbia River

Regulated Supply vs Demand for Columbia River Basin (at Bonneville)

Note: Supply is reported prior to accounting for demands

Demand: 13.3 million ac-ft

Demand: 13.6 million ac-ft2030s

Regulated Supply and In-Stream Flow Requirements at Key Locations

Future(2030s)

Historical (1977-2006)

Note: Supply is reported prior to accounting for demands

http://wa.water.usgs.gov

Yakima River Basin

Yakima Regulated Supply and Demand

Historical

2030s

Summary Annual supply is projected to increase roughly the

same amount as annual demand (with lower certainty).

However the seasonality of supply will move away from the season of highest demand (with higher certainty).

Increased irrigation demand, coupled with decreased seasonal supply poses difficult water resources management questions, especially in the context of competing in stream and out of stream users of water supply.

REGIONAL EARTH SYSTEM MODELING

What IS an Earth System Model?

Represents multiple components of the earth system

Coupler

Atmosphere

Human Actions

LandWater Bodies

A NEW EARTH SYSTEM MODEL

http://www.cereo.wsu.edu/bioearth/

BioEarth•Overarching Goal: To improve the understanding of regional and decadal-scale C:N:H2O interactions in context of global change to better inform decision makers involved in natural and agricultural resource management.

BioEarth Unique Elements Model elements that directly relate

agriculture and natural resource management and decision making Economics: crop and forest resource human

decision making Crop modeling: irrigation, fertilization,

rotations, tillage, residue Water management: reservoirs, curtailment Environmental impacts: air quality, water

quality, water availability

BioEarth Team Washington State University

Biological Sciences Biological Systems Engineering CSANR Civil and Environmental Engineering Computer Sciences Earth and Environmental Sciences Economics Extension Laboratory for Atmospheric Research

Clark University, Communications National Center for Atmospheric Research Oregon State University, Economics Pacific Northwest National Lab, Atmospheric Sciences University of California Santa Barbara, Environmental Sciences

Current and Future Directions that can involve CSANR Improved understanding of research and

modeling needs of agricultural producers and natural resource managers

Impacts of improved irrigation efficiency on return flows and downstream crop yields

Inclusion of Carbon and Nitrogen cycling in coupled hydrology-crop model (VIC-CropSyst)

Inclusion of nutritional quality in VIC-CropSyst Climate change perception and education Other ideas?

Thank you!