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Dr. Alain Pietroniro, P.Eng. Ms. Brenda Toth, MScMs. Jessika Toyra
National Water Research Institute, National Hydrology research Centre11 Innovation Blvd., Saskatoon. SK.
e-mail: [email protected]
Dr. Thian Yew GanProfessor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta
Dr. Jim Byrne and Dr. Stefen KeinzelProfessor, Department of Geography,
University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, Alberta
Mr. Mike Demuth, P.Eng., P.GeoGlaciology Program, Terrain Sciences Division
Natural Resources Canada
Water Availability in the South Saskatchewan River Basin under Climate Change
Hydrology and the Canadian Prairies
• Some of the largest potential changes in surface water quantity under the currently predicted climate scenarios are in the Canadian prairies.
•
Adapting to these changes requires sophisticated understanding of the hydrological cycle within the prairie eco-zone in tandem with understanding the influence that human intervention on the landscape has made to the hydrological regime.
Objective
• To predict the future water availability in the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) under the potential impact of climate change using hydrologic models calibrated to SSRB and forced by downscaled climate scenarios projected by some selected general circulation models (GCM).
• To prove the utility of a physical modeling study linked and integrated to water policy via a socio-economic study
The scenarios will allow others to examine surface water resources management strategies on the prairies in an integrated watershed management framework under varying climate scenarios.
GCM Analysis
GCM DataCCRS-NIESCGCM1CGCM2CSIROMK2bECHAM4GFDL-R15GFDL-R30HadCM2HadCM3NCAR-DOENCAR-PCM
Observed DataIDW – Prairie & Northern RegionCRU – Climatic Research UnitWATMPPR – U of Waterloo
1961-1990 current climate simulations of seasonal & annual:- Mean Temperature -Total PrecipitationBaseline climatology
TemperatureTemperature
Best seasonal representationCCSR-NIES and ECHAM4ECHAM4
Good annual balance
HadCM3HadCM3 and NCARNCAR--PCMPCM
PrecipitationPrecipitation
Best seasonalNCARNCAR--PCMPCM
Annual balanceGFDL-R30, NCARNCAR--PCMPCM and ECHAM4ECHAM4
Baseline comparison
0.212.7--0.80.8--16.516.5--1.11.1NCARNCAR--PCMPCM
7.425.91.31.3-10.26.1NCAR-DOE
-0.414.10.40.4--16.816.8--0.70.7HadCM3HadCM3
2.814.314.32.8-10.02.5HadCM2
3.919.20.90.9-11.73.1GFDL-R30
0.216.7-3.2--17.917.9-1.0GFDL-R15
2.22.215.515.51.31.3-13.11.5ECHAM4ECHAM4
3.216.2--1.41.4-13.61.1CSIROMK2b
5.814.914.9-3.4-12.41.2CGCM2
6.116.8--0.40.4-10.63.0CGCM1
0.90.914.414.4-5.0--17.517.5-1.8CCSRCCSR--NIESNIES
1.51.515.315.30.30.3--17.317.30.00.0IDWIDW
AutumnSummerSpringWinterAnnualData Sets
Mean Temperature (°C) Baseline comparison
Yellow values = no significant differenceYellow values = no significant difference
97.797.7250.8124.470.370.3543.2NCARNCAR--PCMPCM
183.5201.3201.3245.2148.5778.5NCAR-DOE
137.9286.0149.670.370.3643.8HadCM3
119.7119.7224.1154.294.2592.3HadCM2
118.4157.0144.496.8516.7GFDLGFDL--R30R30
158.8193.7193.7154.0151.7658.1GFDL-R15
119.5219.0219.0144.4102.3585.2ECHAM4ECHAM4
142.4279.7132.9101.6656.6CSIROMK2b
166.1263.0149.6153.3731.9CGCM2
172.4250.4165.3158.0746.1CGCM1
177.9311.0159.1143.3791.3CCSR-NIES
105.3105.3208.9208.990.190.164.964.9469.2469.2IDWIDW
AutumnSummerSpringWinterAnnualData Sets
Total Precipitation (mm) Baseline comparison
Meteorological Forcing and Downscaling
Current Climate forcing:
Surface Observations from Climate Archive
Precipitation (Daily) - 30 years 1961-1990
Temperature (Daily) - 30 years 1961-1990
700+ stations
Interpolated(Kriging)
Disaggregate
(hourly) Lapse rateInterpolate(hourly)
GCM %Precip +Tempecha21 0.2 2.8echb21 -0.3 2.8hada21 11.1 2.3hadb21 6.1 2.1ncara21 11.8 1.7ncarb21 8.5 1.5
driest, warmest
moderately wet and warm
wettest and least warm
Description Season % Precip +Tempwinter 11.8 2.1spring 9.1 1.3
summer -3.8 3.0fall 7.9 2.3 wetter and warmer
Descriptionwetter and warmer
wetter and somewhat warmerdrier and much warmer
Forcing for future climate: Apply basin mean changes in T and P due to GCM to observed data
Modeling results 1961-90Watflood - MISBA
050
100150200250300350400
JanFe
bMar
AprilMay
JuneJu
lyAug
Sept Oct
NovDec
Mea
n fl
ow
(cm
s)
meas05AD007
mod OM @Leth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
JanFe
bMar
AprilMay
JuneJu
lyAug
Sept Oct
NovDec
Mea
n flo
w (c
ms)
meas05BH004
mod BR @Calgary
020406080
100120140160180
JanFe
bMar
AprilMay
JuneJu
lyAugSe
pt OctNovDec
Mea
n flo
w (c
ms)
meas05CK004
mod RD @Blindloss
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
JanFe
bMarApr
ilMay
JuneJu
lyAu
gSe
pt OctNovDec
Mea
n fl
ow
(cm
s)
mod Diefmeasured
mod Diefmodelled
Oldman current (AG006)
0.050.0
100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0
Jan
Feb
Mar AprMay Ju
n JulAug Se
p OctNov Dec
flo
w (
cms)
MISBA
Watflood
Bow River current (BN012)
0.050.0
100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0
JanFe
bMar Ap
rMayJu
n JulAu
gSe
p OctNo
vDec
Flo
w (
cms)
MISBA
Watflood
Oldman Bow River(05AG006) (05BN012)
Observed 104.6 122.1MISBA 103.9 121.4Watflood 91.4 106.8
Mean annual flows cms
Bow River at Banff
0
50
100
150
200
current ech had ncar
climatology
mod
elle
d flo
ws
(ave
rag
e cm
s)
winterspringsummerfall
Old Man River at Lethbridge
0
50
100
150
current ech had ncar
climatology
mo
del
led
flo
ws
(ave
rag
e cm
s) winterspringsummerfall
South Saskatchewan River at Diefenbaker
0100200300400500600
current ech had ncar
climatology
mod
elle
d flo
ws
(ave
rag
e cm
s) winter
springsummer
fall
Seasonal response in future flows
Red Deer River at Red Deer
020406080
100120
current ech had ncar
climatology
mod
elle
d flo
ws
(ave
rag
e cm
s)
winterspringsummer
fall
Bow River at Banff
0
50
100
150
200
current ech had ncar
climatology
mod
elle
d flo
ws
(ave
rag
e cm
s)
winterspring
summerfall
Season % Precip +Tempwinter 11.8 2.1spring 9.1 1.3
summer -3.8 3.0fall 7.9 2.3 wetter and warmer
Descriptionwetter and warmer
wetter and somewhat warmerdrier and much warmer
Uncertainties……orConfessions of a modeler
– "The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge". - Daniel Boorstin
– Prairie Hydrology is poorly understood!!!– Data uncertainties– Non-contributing area– Effect of land-use practices– Groundwater – The role of glaciers– The role of potholes and depression features in the water
and energy balance– Snow sublimation– Seasonally frozen soils– ET estimates are uncertain
PET estimates available to link to distributed hydrologic modeling
• Morton/CRAE – Spatially and temporally
insufficient• Modified Priestley-Taylor
– Estimates end at Alberta border
• NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data– Sufficient
spatial/temporal resolution
• Hargreaves within Watflood– Can be modified/recoded– Must ensure consistency
Land Surface Potential Evapotranspiration
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Month
PE
T (m
m)
Morton Land Surface (1147)
Modified Priestley-Taylor (1046)
Hargreaves (619)
NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (1674)
Pan Evaporation (1263)
Alberta
Manitoba
Ontario
Montana
Saskatchewan
Idaho
British Columbia
Minnesota
North Dakota
Oregon
Washington
WisconsinSouth Dakota
Wyoming
Michigan
Saskatchewan River
Churchill River
Peace River
Red River
Lake Winnipeg
Athabasca River
Assiniboine River
Hayes River
Winnipeg River
Nelson River
Missouri River
Seal River
3
40
11
1
0
10
0
62
30
27
0
Boise
Helena
Regina
Calgary
Winnipeg
Edmonton
Bismarck
Saskatoon
Saint PaulMinneapolis
Source:Non-contributing area - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, P.F.R.A.Elevation data - Environmental Systems Research Institute
Non-contributing drainage area (percent of total basin area) for prairie drainage basins-median annual runoff-
0 100 20050
Kilometers
Closed basins of the glaciated northern prairies
SSRB Water Availability Study –physical modeling and linkages
• The Physical Component of the SSRB climate change study nearing completion
– Comparison with Sacramento, MISBA for major sub-basinsCross validation/nested scaling
– Model output linked to economic analysis on a yearly and sub-basin scale
• Where to go, implications for DRI– Continued evaluation on other components of the water cycle
• Potential evapotranspiration (PET), AET/soil moisture availability• Closed basins, non-contributing areas
– Assessment of uncertainties with further examination of current climate modelling or within GCM scenarios
• SSRB has striven for a unique and consistent approach to quantifying socio-economic impacts using solid physical models and methodologies.
Many investigators and assistants have been instrumental in the physical modeling. They include
Mr. Pablo Dornes (U of S)Dr. Taha Ouarda, Ing. (INRS-EAU)Mr. Kelly Best (NWRI)Ms. Jessika Toyra (NWRI)Dr. Barrie Bonsal (NWRI)
Ms. Krysha Dukacz (NWRI)Mr. Chris Hopkinson (WLU)Mr. Guy Duke (U of Lethbridge)Mr. Dave Harvey (WSC)Mr. Malcolm Conly, P.Geo (NWRI)PFRA, SaskWater, AEP, PARC, CCAF