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Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Water Availability Report
20 August 2018
Table of Contents
Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2
System Risks ...................................................................................................................................................................... 2
Climatic Conditions ............................................................................................................................................................ 3
3 Month Forecast Climatic Conditions ............................................................................................................................ 4
Valley Based Operational Activities ................................................................................................................................ 5
Murray Valley ................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Lower Darling Valley ......................................................................................................................................................... 6
Murrumbidgee Valley ....................................................................................................................................................... 7
Lachlan Valley ................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Macquarie Valley ............................................................................................................................................................ 13
Namoi Valley ................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Gwydir Valley .................................................................................................................................................................. 17
Border Rivers .................................................................................................................................................................. 19
Barwon Darling River System ......................................................................................................................................... 21
Bega River ....................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Hunter Valley .................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Toonumbar Dam ............................................................................................................................................................. 26
WaterNSW (Rural) – Dam Levels ........................................................................................................................................ 27
Subscribe here for updates to the Water Availability Report.
For Greater Sydney Water Availability, please follow the below link:
http://www.waternsw.com.au/supply/dam-levels/greater-sydneys-dam-levels/weekly-verified-storage-reports
Page 2 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Overview
WaterNSW manages and operates 42 dams and storages to deliver water for environmental, domestic, town water, stock, industrial and irrigation purposes across the state.
WaterNSW storages provide supplies to all the major river systems in Western NSW, Greater Sydney, the Southern Highlands, Shoalhaven Bay as well as the Hunter, Bega, and Iron Pot valleys in coastal NSW.
The total active storage percentage of rural water supplies on 20 August 2018 was 52.4% of the total active storage capacity. This was an increase of 0.1% from last week.
The total storage level of urban water supplies on 20 August 2018 was 65.6% of the total storage capacity. This was a decrease of 0.4% from last week.
System Risks
• Low inflows are being experienced across the state with the ongoing drought conditions.
• The actual inflows to Burrendong Dam since the last AWD in August 2017 total about 30 GL. This is only 39% of the previous record low inflow of about 76GL for the 12 months ending in July. Under continuing dry conditions, only 70% of remaining carryover can be delivered with the current stored volumes and these new, lower inflows. Deliveries in 2018-19 may also involve implementation of water order debiting and, where feasible, block releases of irrigation orders in lower parts of the Macquarie River.
• Flows in most sections of the Barwon Darling have ceased as conditions remain dry.
• If conditions remain dry in the Namoi Valley, remaining water will be delivered via a complete block release strategy throughout 2018/19. Planning in relation to timing and duration of flow is continuing. Cease to flow conditions have been present since late March below Goangra in the Lower Namoi Valley.
• Drought contingency measures (block releases) will be needed in the Gwydir valley to deliver the small volumes remaining in customer accounts if conditions remain dry in 2018/19.
• Grouping of water orders and an early cessation to deliveries in the western section of the Border rivers will be required if conditions remain dry in 2018/19.
• Menindee Lakes continues to be below the 480/640GL trigger for NSW control, and reduced releases have been implemented to extend drought security. These lower releases increase the possibility of; access problems with very low flows and decreasing water quality. Temporary block banks are being constructed in the Lower Darling to extend stock and domestic supplies beyond December 2018.
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Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Climatic Conditions
Figure 1 - Weekly rainfall totals for New South Wales
A complex low pressure system lies over the southern Tasman Sea, while a high pressure system
slowly moves across New South Wales. The combination of these two systems is generating vigorous
south to southwesterly winds across eastern New South Wales, and a large southerly swell along the
coast. Conditions are expected to ease later today as the low moves towards New Zealand and the
high becomes the dominant system across the state. A low pressure trough is forecast to clip the far
south on Tuesday, with a more significant system expected to approach the far west towards the
weekend. NSW should remain dry for the first part of the week with rainfall of 1 to 25mm being seen
over the state, mainly on the east coast.
Figure 2a – First 4-day Forecast (20 - 23 Aug 18) Figure 2b – Following 4-day forecast (24 – 27 Aug 18)
Page 4 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
3 Month Forecast Climatic Conditions
A drier spring likely for southern Australia • Spring (September to November) is more likely to be drier than average for southern inland NSW.
Elsewhere across the state, there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average three
months, meaning there is no strong indication either way that it will be particularly wet or dry.
• September and October are likely to be drier for most of eastern Australia.
• Much of eastern mainland Australia has experienced a very dry first half of the year, so an outlook
with increased chances of drier conditions indicates areas currently experiencing drought are less
likely to see significant respite in the coming three months.
• Historical outlook accuracy for September to November is moderate to high over most of the country.
Figure 3 - Three-month rainfall outlook
Page 5 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Valley Based Operational Activities
Murray Valley
Storage Status
• Hume Dam is currently at 48% of active capacity, releasing about 3,340 ML/d.
Predicted Release Patterns
• Releases from Hume Dam will vary in response to changing tributary inflows from the Kiewa and Ovens Rivers to meet downstream irrigation / eWater demands.
• Edward River Offtake is currently about 1,560ML/d and is likely to remain steady below the channel capacity of 1,600ML/day.
• Gulpa Creek Offtake is currently about 330ML/d and is likely to remain steady below the channel capacity of 350ML/day.
• Stevens Weir level is currently about 4.5m and is likely remain steady to manage the level upstream of Wakool Canal offtake, which is about 1.8m. Flow downstream of Stevens Weir is currently about 2,040ML/day. The flows are likely to marginally vary to about 1,900ML/day over this week.
• Flows in the Colligen Creek (175ML/day), Yallakool Creek (350ML/day) and Wakool River (50ML/day) are likely to remain steady.
Operating Conditions
• The 15th August Water Allocation Statement confirmed the general security allocation of zero, while Available Water Determinations (AWD) are 100% for towns and 97% for high security. Average carryover into 2018-19 is estimated to be about 31% of general security share components.
• Environmental water delivered downstream of Yarrawonga into the forest has reached Edward River upstream of Toonalook with a current flow rate of about 600ML/d.
• Irrigation supply to Wakool Main Canal is being supplied via Edward River Escape.
• Flow at Moulamein, which is currently at about 1,120ML/day is forecast to steadily increase to about 2,000ML/day by next week with the arrival of increased flows below Stevens Weir. Flow has arrived at Gee Gee bridge and is likely to increase to about 200ML/day later this week.
• Flow at Mallan School is currently about 135ML/d and is likely to remain relatively steady over next week.
• Flows at Balranald are currently about 920 ML/d and targeting the monthly end of system flow for August of 1,1087 ML/day.
• Lake Victoria is currently holding about 342 GL or 50% of active capacity. The flow to South Australia is about 4,200ML/d.
• Potential Blue Green Algae issues. o Hume Dam: Results for 26/06 indicate that there are no alerts for the storage. o For more information visit: Water Quality Algae
Planned Supply Interruptions:
• None.
Page 6 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Lower Darling Valley
Storage Status
• The lakes currently hold an active volume of about 135 GL or about 8% of active capacity. The total storage is about 183 GL.
• Lake Menindee has been dry since 6 Feb 2018.
Predicted Release Patterns
• Release from Lake Pamamaroo is about 260ML/d, primarily to meet the flow targets of about 220ML/d at Weir 32 to fill the Lower Darling block banks.
• The following is the tentative plan for releases from upper storages to fill the banks: o Weir 32 target to be 220ML/d. The release will be regularly reviewed as the Lake
Pamamaroo outlet capacity will reduce as the lake level falls. o The supply to Lower Darling River from Pamamaroo is expected to be maintained at
about 260ML/d until mid-November with no further inflows to the storages and is subject to Pamamaroo outlet release capacity.
o Current level at the block bank near Jamesville is about 2.1m, and is being raised by about 10 to 30 mm/day. Both the pipes at the bank are fully open to pass part of the inflows to fill the lower bank at Ashvale.
o Current level at the block bank near Ashvale is about 1.38m and is being raised at about 50 to 70 mm/day. The pipes at the bank are closed.
o The filling rates of both banks will be reviewed by early September.
Operating Conditions
• The 15th August Water Allocation Statement remained unchanged. The Available Water Determinations (AWD) are 100% for towns for high security, while general security is zero. Average carryover into 2018-19 is about 15% of general security share components.
• The net evaporation loss over the last week was about 2,726ML. The average pan evaporation rate at Menindee over the last week was about 3.9mm/d.
• The total storage of Menindee Lakes reached the 480GL trigger for NSW control of the lakes on 16 December 2017. The releases from the storages will be managed as per the Lower Darling Annual Operations Plan until the storage volume next exceeds 640GL. For more information visit: Lower-Darling Operational Plan.
• The pumping across the temporary bank between Lake Wetherell and Lake Tandure ceased on 18 May 2018 as it reached the targeted water level in Lake Wetherell. Pumping will recommence when required to maintain this target level.
• Two temporary block banks viz. near Jamesville and Ashvale have been constructed to ensure supply to domestic, stock and permanent plantings. Additional releases from Lake Pamamaroo outlet have commenced to fill these banks. The filling may take about 10 weeks or longer dependant on the weather conditions and release rates from Pamamaroo.
• Construction of a temporary bank to separate Lake Pamamaroo and Copi Hollow is nearly complete and the pump installation is expected to complete this week, as per the drought management plan.
• Potential Blue Green Algae issues. The following warnings are current for the various sampling locations within the Menindee Lake System and Lower Darling River immediately downstream of the storages.
o Darling River at Wilcannia, Darling River u/s in Weir 32, Darling River at Weir 32, Lake Wetherell - Site 2,3,4, Lake Tandure- Site 8, Lake Pamamaroo – Site 9,10,13, Copi Hollow, Darling River Pumping Station at Menindee, Lake Cawndilla Outlet are on green alert.
o Lake Wetherell - Site 4, Lake Menindee - Site 19, are on Amber level results. o For more information visit: water-quality-algae
Page 7 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Planned Supply Interruptions
• None.
Page 8 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Murrumbidgee Valley
Storage Status
• Burrinjuck Dam is currently at about 41% releasing about 460 ML/d.
• Blowering Dam is about 73% releasing about 4,960 ML/d.
Predicted Release Patterns
• Releases from Burrinjuck Dam are being maintained at about 450 ML/day as per planned environmental water rules
• Release from Blowering Dam is likely to vary marginally to meet downstream irrigation and environmental demands, expected to be around 4,700ML/day.
• The current diversion into Yanco Creek is about 660 ML/d and is likely to reduce to about 550ML/day.
• Delivery to Yanco Creek via CCD escape is likely to be about 70ML/day.
• The Beavers Creek Offtake is fully opened as per the work approval conditions and the flow at Mundowey gauge is about 530 ML/d, while the flow at Kywong is estimated to be about 400ML/day.
Operating Conditions
• The 15th August Water Allocation Statement remain unchanged. The Available Water Determinations (AWD) are 100% for towns and 95% for high security, while general security is 6%. Carryover into 2018-19 is 22% of general security share components.
• Berembed Weir is being held at about 3.8m for supply of water to MI Main Canal. Remaining airspace will be filled with future rainfall event or with any system surplus.
• Bundidgerry storage is partly filled (currently at 3.6m) to supply water for irrigation demand. Sufficient airspace is being maintained to capture any system surplus and local runoff.
• Gogeldrie Weir would be drawn down to meet downstream system demands while maintaining sufficient head to supply water to meet the winter irrigation demand to Sturt Canal and Coleambally Main Canal.
• Hay Weir is currently at 6.7m and will be drawn down to about 5.7m over the next week to meet downstream demands.
• Maude Weir is drawn down and the airspace will be used to capture any system surplus.
• Redbank Weir is at operational fully supply level of about 5.5m to supply environmental water to Yanga wetlands. The supply of eWater commenced on 20 August is likely to continue into summer.
• The flow in the Yanco – Billabong Creek system has returned to normal, while WaterNSW has identified a few customers extracting without orders and at other locations few orders are not being taken that may lead to potential operational loss. These issues are being addressed and WaterNSW will continue to monitor the telemetered metering system to ensure extractions are compliant with water orders. Customer Notice.
• Flows at Balranald are currently about 920 ML/d and targeting the monthly end of system flow for August of 1,087 ML/d.
• For Inter Valley Transfer (IVT) account from Murray to Murrumbidgee refer to WaterNSW website IVT Ordering
• Potential Blue Green Algae issues. o There are Green alerts for Burrinjuck Station 1 (Dam Wall), Downstream, Burrinjuck
Waters State Park, and Goodhope o Blowering dam and Burrinjuck dam remains at green alert.
Page 9 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
o Other sites have no alerts o For more information visit: water-quality-algae
Planned Supply Interruptions
• Nimmie/ Caira offtake structures will be taken up for maintenance works programme by mid-late August.
• Maintenance at the North Redbank Channel has commenced and is scheduled to be completed by mid-September. Supply to environmental assets via the North Redbank channel is impacted.
• Planning is underway for the maintenance of Tarabah Weir and Spillers Regulator.
Page 10 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Page 11 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Lachlan Valley
Storage Status
• Carcoar Dam is at 55% and releases have averaged about 1-2 ML/d during the last week.
• Wyangala Dam is at 59% and releases have averaged about 1,100ML/d during the last week.
Predicted Release Patterns
• The releases from Carcoar Dam will be limited to around 1-2 ML/d until the 23rd August due to maintenance works.
• The releases from Wyangala Dam will remain between 1,000 – 1,500ML/d for the next week.
• In the Lower Lachlan, the releases at Brewster Weir have been averaging around 280 ML/d. Of this an average of around 160 ML/d was released for Stock & Domestic replenishment flows to Willandra Creek. The release is likely to remain around 300ML/d.
Operating Conditions
• The 15th August Water Allocation Statement confirmed zero for general security and the initial Available Water Determinations (AWD) of 100% for towns, S&D and high security. Carryover into 2018-19 in Lachlan River is about 369GL, equivalent to about 62% of general security share components.
• It was estimated that a combined dam and tributary inflow volume more than 133,000 ML is required in August before a further allocation can be made in the Lachlan River. Inflows received to date are around 3,100ML.
• Lake Cargelligo storage is currently at 70% and the level is likely to remain above 60% until the beginning of the irrigation season.
• As of 25 July 2018, Lake Brewster was at 0.3% holding about 450 ML totally with about 250 ML in the main storage.
• Latest BGA samples show that Willandra Weir, Lake Brewster outlet channel, Lake Brewster Regulator C, Lake Cargelligo Outlet and Boatshed are all on green alert.
• Delivery of annual stock and domestic replenishment flows to effluent creeks in the lower Lachlan are being staggered. Willandra Creek has commenced on the 27 August 2018 at a rate of 200ML/d, on the 12 August 2018 it was reduced to target 180ML/d and on 18 August 2018 it was reduced to target 130ML/d. Merrimajeel/ Muggabah commenced on 12th June 2018 and finished on the 7th August 2018. Stock and domestic replenishment flows into Merrowie Creek started on 11 May 2018 and finished on the 20 July 2018.
• Maintenance works at Carcoar Dam will be between the 13 August and 23 August 2018. Releases will be maintained at 2ML/d, and this is unlikely to impact users. As per the Customer Notice
Page 12 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Planned Supply Interruptions
• Planned maintenance works on Jemalong Weir have been completed successfully. Customer Notice
• Maintenance works on Carcoar Dam dissipater basin and clean out planned for 13 to 23 August 2018. Only 2 ML/d will be released through bypass penstock.
Account spill and reset of general security allocations
• If WaterNSW were to commence dam releases to maintain airspace in Wyangala Dam, it will trigger an account spill and reset of general security allocation accounts, high security spillable sub-accounts and the conveyance licence account as per section 56 of the Lachlan WSP. The Department of Industry - Water has announced that if there is an account spill and reset there will be no further reset in the following 6 months.
Page 13 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Macquarie Valley
Storage Status
• Burrendong Dam is currently at 33% and Windamere Dam is at 40% capacity.
Predicted Release Patterns
• Currently releases from Burrendong are around 2,150 ML/d and are planned to increase steadily to around 2,600ML/d by the end of this week.
• Releases from Windamere are around 40ML/d and are planned to stay around 40ML/d for rest of the week if no new orders appear.
Operating Conditions
• Delivery of environmental flows commenced at Burrendong Dam on 12 July 2018. Currently releases for the ‘spring event’ are being made from the dam with a hydrograph designed to provide a peak flow rate of 2,600 ML/d arriving Marebone Weir.
• The current releases from Burrendong Dam are for environmental orders, and a smaller proportion of the release is for irrigation, town water demand and minimum flow targets.
• The stock and domestic (S&D) replenishment flows into Marra Creek ceased on the 6th of July.
• The S&D replenishment flows to the lower Bogan River ceased on 30th of July at the Gunningbar Weir. The S&D flow requirements in the lower Macquarie River are likely to be met by the current delivery of environmental flows to the Macquarie Marshes.
• The timing of all S&D deliveries thereafter in 2019 will depend on rainfall events, dam inflows, and contributions from downstream tributaries.
• The initial Available Water Determinations (AWD) for 2018-19 are 100% for towns, S&D and high security, while general security is zero.
• Carryover into 2018-19 in the Macquarie River is about 316GL or 52% of general security share component. Carryover into 2018-19 in Cudgegong River is about 102% of share component. However, as per the Water Allocation Statement published by DoI Water, in the absence of future inflows, the resources in Burrendong Dam, plus the planned bulk water transfer of 54,000 ML from Windamere Dam, will only provide 70 per cent of the 1 July 2018 balance of general security and environmental accounts (including EWA).
• It also states that, Macquarie regulated river (general security) access licences will be restricted to 70 per cent of the volume of water in the carryover sub-account account as at 1 July 2018. Cudgegong regulated river access licences, including general security, are not restricted.
• It is estimated that inflows of more than 265 GL are required in August before an increment in Available Water Determination can be made. Inflows received in August to date are close to zero.
• The actual inflows to Burrendong Dam since the last AWD in August 2017 total about 30 GL. This is only 39% of the previous record low inflow of about 76GL for the 12 months ending in July.
• This drier than historical minimum inflow confirms that the system has entered into a new drought of record for Burrendong Dam, and the next few months inflows will be important for planning this season’s operations.
• Under very dry conditions, deliveries in 2018-19 will require water conservation initiatives to reduce losses. This may involve implementation of water order debiting and, where feasible, block releases of irrigation orders in lower parts of the Macquarie River.
Page 14 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
• Algal sampling results from 31st July 2018 at Burrendong shows amber level presence of toxic species in Cudgegong arms The Dam Wall, Mookerawa arm and downstream show no potentially toxic cyanobacteria. Therefore, the storage remains at Amber alert.
• Results for 8th August 2018 showed no cyanobacteria at the Dam Wall and a minor benign presence detected mid-lake. Minor counts of benign cyanobacteria were detected downstream. The amber alert has now been lifted and replaced by a green alert.
• The position of the trash rack at Windamere Dam is currently 12-15 m below the surface.
• Works to reinstate the temperature curtain at Burrendong Dam have been completed and the commissioning phase has commenced. It is expected that the commissioning of the curtain operation will take a few weeks and likely to be completed by the time the water near the surface of the lake begins to warm. This will allow continuation of this trial technology with the release of the lake’s warmer surface waters.
Planned Supply Interruptions
• Nil.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Ju
l-15
Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep
-15
Oct-
15
No
v-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Apr-
16
May-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
Aug
-16
Sep
-16
Oct-
16
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-1
7
Ju
n-1
7
Ju
l-17
Aug
-17
Sep
-17
Oct-
17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Feb
-18
Mar-
18
Apr-
18
May-1
8
Ju
n-1
8
Ju
l-18
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct-
18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Ja
n-1
9
Feb
-19
Mar-
19
Apr-
19
May-1
9
Ju
n-1
9
En
d o
f M
on
th S
tora
ge L
ev
el in
%
Period
Burrendong Dam Forecast Storage Levels(assessment done end of May 2018)
Actual Dry 80% COE Median 50% COE Wet 20% COE Minimum 99% COE
Page 15 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Namoi Valley
Storage Status
• Keepit Dam is at 11%, Split Rock Dam is at 14% and Chaffey Dam is at 55% of active capacity.
Predicted Release Patterns
• No further release from Keepit Dam is planned until spring deliveries begin in October/November, discussions on timing of flows continues with stakeholders.
• Split Rock Dam is releasing around 24 ML/d to deliver small volumes to upper Namoi users.
• Chaffey Dam releases are approximately 50 ML/day to supply Tamworth city water supply and small irrigation demand, in roughly 50:50 ratio.
• Flows are expected to remain relatively stable, until warmer conditions occur.
Operating Conditions
• The initial Available Water Determinations (AWD) for the Lower Namoi are 100% for towns and high security, while general security is zero. Carryover into 2018-19 is estimated to be up to 19% of general security share components.
• The initial Available Water Determinations (AWD) for the Upper Namoi are 100% for towns, high security, and general security.
• The initial Available Water Determinations (AWD) for the Peel are 100% for towns and high security, while general security initially is 29%, with an increase in August to a total of 36%.
• No significant rainfall has occurred over the past week. There is potential for rainfall later in the week with small totals currently forecast. With extremely dry conditions significant rainfall will be required to meet initial soil moisture deficits. Temperatures are forecast to remain stable throughout the next week with maximums around 20 and with minimums around 0 C degree.
• No flow has been present in the Namoi River at Walgett since March 2018.
• Recent sampling for BGA indicates that Split Rock, Chaffey and Keepit Dams remain on green alert.
• If conditions remain dry, Lower Namoi orders will be delivered via a complete block release strategy throughout 2018/19. Discussions on timing of these releases continue with stakeholders. Releases for users upstream of Mollee will occur up to every 8 weeks. Customers are advised to take this into account when undertaking planning for this year’s cropping program.
• Supply on demand will continue for the Upper Namoi and the Peel Valley, though customers will continue to observe reduced river levels.
Planned Supply Interruptions
• Mollee fish way is currently unavailable due to infrastructure failure.
• Mollee and Gunidgera Weirs are both empty to allow winter maintenance works and will only be replenished in October/November if they are not filled by additional tributary flows.
Page 16 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jul-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Oct-
17
Nov-1
7
Dec-1
7
Jan
-18
Fe
b-1
8
Ma
r-18
Ap
r-18
Ma
y-1
8
Jun
-18
Jul-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oct-
18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan
-19
Feb-1
9
Ma
r-19
Ap
r-19
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19
Jul-1
9
Au
g-1
9
Se
p-1
9
Oct-
19
Nov-1
9
Dec-1
9
Jan
-20
Fe
b-2
0
Ma
r-20
Ap
r-20
Ma
y-2
0
Jun
-20
Gig
alit
res (
GL)
Keepit forecast storage volume - Chance of Exceedance (COE)
Actual Minimum 99% COE DRY 80% COE Median 50% COE WET 20% COE
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jul-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Oct-
17
Nov-1
7
Dec-1
7
Jan
-18
Fe
b-1
8
Ma
r-18
Ap
r-18
Ma
y-1
8
Jun
-18
Jul-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oct-
18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan
-19
Fe
b-1
9
Ma
r-19
Ap
r-19
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19
Jul-1
9
Au
g-1
9
Se
p-1
9
Oct-
19
Nov-1
9
Dec-1
9
Jan
-20
Fe
b-2
0
Ma
r-20
Ap
r-20
Ma
y-2
0
Jun
-20
Gig
alit
res (
GL)
Split Rock - forecast storage volume - Chance of Exceedance (COE)
Actual Minimum 99% COE DRY 80% COE Median 50% COE WET 20% COE
Page 17 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jul-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Oct-
17
Nov-1
7
Dec-1
7
Jan
-18
Fe
b-1
8
Ma
r-18
Ap
r-18
Ma
y-1
8
Jun
-18
Jul-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oct-
18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan
-19
Fe
b-1
9
Ma
r-19
Ap
r-19
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19
Jul-1
9
Au
g-1
9
Se
p-1
9
Oct-
19
Nov-1
9
Dec-1
9
Jan
-20
Feb-2
0
Ma
r-20
Ap
r-20
Ma
y-2
0
Jun
-20
Chaffey Dam - forecast storage volume - Chance of Exceedance (COE)
actual Minimum 99% COE DRY 80% COE Median 50% COE WET 20% COE
Page 18 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Gwydir Valley
Storage Status
• Copeton Dam is at 24% of active capacity.
Predicted Release Patterns
• Planned environmental releases from Copeton continue at about 650ML/d.
Operating Conditions
• The initial Available Water Determinations (AWD) are 100% for towns and high security, while general security is zero. Total carryover into 2018-19 is estimated to be up to 22% of general security share components.
• No significant rainfall was recorded throughout the last week.
• Small rainfall totals are forecast towards the end of the week. Temperatures are forecast to remain stable throughout the next week with maximums below 20 degrees and with minimums in the single digits with one or two days of at or below zero.
• Consultation with customers in relation to limited water deliveries this season has begun. Carryover of general security for industry production was limited to roughly 40 GL (about 8% of general security share components).
• Carryover of general security for environmental use is roughly 71 GL (about 14 % of general security share components), in addition roughly 75 GL is available for the Environmental Contingency Allowance (ECA).
• The first of two planned 30GL ECA deliveries is underway and flows have already reached the target sites; Millewa and Gingham.
• If conditions remain dry the delivery of remaining volumes will need to be managed so that essential supplies can be met going forward. Block releases will be required on western effluent streams. No further winter deliveries to effluent streams will occur.
• Recent Blue Green Algae (BGA) sampling at Copeton shows Copeton remains at amber alert level.
Planned Supply Interruptions
• No supply interruptions are expected.
Page 19 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jul-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Oct-
17
Nov-1
7
Dec-1
7
Jan
-18
Fe
b-1
8
Ma
r-18
Ap
r-18
Ma
y-1
8
Jun
-18
Jul-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oct-
18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan
-19
Fe
b-1
9
Ma
r-19
Ap
r-19
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19
Jul-1
9
Au
g-1
9
Se
p-1
9
Oct-
19
Nov-1
9
Dec-1
9
Jan
-20
Fe
b-2
0
Mar-
20
Ap
r-20
Ma
y-2
0
Jun
-20
Gig
alit
res (
GL)
Copeton - forecast storage volume - Chance of Exceedance
Actual Minimum 99% COE DRY 80% COE
Page 20 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Border Rivers
Storage Status
• Pindari Dam is at 58%. Glenlyon is at 47%.
Predicted Release Patterns
• Pindari Dam currently releasing around 183 ML/day for Boomi replenishment flow.
• Releases started from Glenlyon Dam to satisfy the orders upstream of Glenarbon. Currently
releasing 86 ML/day, and releases will cease later this week.
Operating Conditions
• The initial Available Water Determinations (AWD) are 100% for towns and high security, while general security A is 23% and general security B is zero. Total carryover into 2018-19 is around 53% of general security share components.
• No significant rainfall was recorded throughout the week. BOM forecast indicates some rainfall at the end of this week. Temperatures are forecast to remain stable throughout the week with maximums around 20 degrees and with minimums in the single digits with few days below zero for some locations.
• No further deliveries are expected throughout the winter except Boomi replenishment flow.
• Boggabilla Weir winter maintenance works have been completed.
• Goondiwindi Weir maintenance has been completed. Releases from Boggabilla had commenced last week and currently releasing around 130 ML/day for Boomi replenishment flow.
• Flows have arrived at Boomi and currently pushing around 94 ML/day through Boomi offtake.
• Recent Blue Green Algae (BGA) sampling at Pindari shows that Pindari alert level changed from amber to green.
• Water deliveries west of Boomi will be grouped together and a shortened release period will be implemented to ensure efficient deliveries during the 2018/19 growing season
• Cease to flow conditions are present at locations west of Boomi.
Planned Supply Interruptions
• No supply interruptions are currently forecast.
Page 21 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Aug-1
7
Oct-
17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Jan-1
8
Feb
-18
Ma
r-1
8
Apr-
18
Ma
y-1
8
Jun-1
8
Jul-1
8
Aug-1
8
Sep-1
8
Oct-
18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Jan-1
9
Feb
-19
Ma
r-1
9
Apr-
19
Ma
y-1
9
Jun-1
9
Jul-1
9
Aug-1
9
Sep-1
9
Oct-
19
No
v-1
9
De
c-1
9
Jan-2
0
Fe
b-2
0
Ma
r-2
0
Apr-
20
Ma
y-2
0
Jun-2
0
Jul-2
0
Gig
alitr
es (
GL
)
Pindari forecast storage volume - Chance of Exceedance
Actual Minimum 99% COE DRY 80% COE Median 50% COE WET 20% COE
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Aug-1
7
Oct-
17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Jan-1
8
Feb
-18
Ma
r-1
8
Apr-
18
Ma
y-1
8
Jun-1
8
Jul-1
8
Aug-1
8
Sep-1
8
Oct-
18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Jan-1
9
Feb
-19
Ma
r-1
9
Apr-
19
Ma
y-1
9
Jun-1
9
Jul-1
9
Aug-1
9
Sep-1
9
Oct-
19
No
v-1
9
De
c-1
9
Jan-2
0
Feb
-20
Ma
r-2
0
Apr-
20
Ma
y-2
0
Jun-2
0
Jul-2
0
Gig
alitr
es (
GL
)
Glenlyon forecast storage volume - Chance of Exceedance
Actual Minimum 99% COE DRY 80% COE Median 50% COE WET 20% COE
Page 22 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Barwon Darling River System
River Flow Status
• The Northern Connectivity flow arrived at Wilcannia on 11 June and peaked on 15 June at around 500ML/day. Approximately 7,400 ML from the Northern Connectivity event has been observed at Wilcannia before the recent rainfall flow event arrived.
• Around 67mm at Brewarrina and 25mm at Bourke was observed on 27th and 28th June.
• This rainfall event generated some flow in the system. A peak of 392ML/day was observed at Brewarrina on 28th June. A peak of 546 ML/day was observed on 2nd July at Bourke, with flows now ceased. Total observed volume at Bourke has been 5,475 ML.
• These flows began arriving at Wilcannia on 17 July, peaked on 21 July at around 164 ML/day, with flows now receded to 5 ML/day. Total observed volume from this rainfall event at Wilcannia is around 2,280 ML including some tail end of the northern connectivity event.
• No significant rainfall was observed in the past week.
Predicted Flow Patterns
• Flows in the upper system from Mungindi to Brewarrina are at cease to flow.
• Flows currently receding at Brewarrina and Warraweena and will cease soon.
• Flows at Bourke and Louth are at cease to flow.
• Flows are expected to cease at Tilpa and Wilcannia during this week.
Operating Conditions
• Below are the river management zones and access availability using daily average data to 6 am, these are provided as an indication only and access may have changed during the 24-hour period.
13-Aug-18 14-Aug-18 15-Aug-18 16-Aug-18 17-Aug-18 18-Aug-18 19-Aug-18
Classification ClassificationClassificationClassificationClassificationClassificationClassification
Mungindi to Boomi River Confluence 416001 - 416050 No access No access No access No access No access No access No access
Boomi River Confluence to U/S Mogil Mogil Weir 416050-422004 No access No access No access No access No access No access No access
Mogil Mogil Weir 422004 No access No access No access No access No access No access No access
D/S Mogil Mogil to Collarenebri 422004-422003 No access No access No access No access No access No access No access
Collarenebri to U/S Walgett Weir 422003-422025 No access No access No access No access No access No access No access
Walgett Weir 422001 No access No access No access No access No access No access No access
D/S Walgett to Boorooma 422001-422026 No access No access No access No access No access No access No access
Geera to Brewarrina 422027-422002 No access No access No access No access No access No access No access
Brewarrina to Culgoa River Junction 422002-422028 No access No access No access No access No access No access No access
Culgoa River Junc to Bourke 425039-425003 No access No access No access No access No access No access No access
Bourke to Louth 425003-425004 No access No access No access No access No access No access No access
Louth to Tilpa 425004-425900 No access No access No access No access No access No access No access
Tilpa to Wilcannia 425900-425008 No access No access No access No access No access No access No access
Wilcannia to U/S Lake Wetherell 425008 No access No access No access No access No access No access No access
Gauging StationRiver Section
Page 23 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Page 24 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Bega River
Storage Status
• Brogo is currently at 80% of active capacity.
Predicted Release Patterns
• Releases are currently at 35 ML/day via valves and likely to remain around this level during the week.
Operating Conditions
• Regulated conditions are present throughout the system.
• No significant rainfall has been observed in Bega during the last week.
• No significant rainfall is forecasted over the week.
• Maximum temperatures are forecast to be around 22 degrees with minimums around mid-single digits.
• Recent BGA sampling at Brogo indicates a green alert level is maintained.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1/09
/201
7
1/10
/201
7
1/11
/201
7
1/12
/201
7
1/01
/201
8
1/02
/201
8
1/03
/201
8
1/04
/201
8
1/05
/201
8
1/06
/201
8
1/07
/201
8
1/08
/201
8
1/09
/201
8
1/10
/201
8
1/11
/201
8
1/12
/201
8
1/01
/201
9
1/02
/201
9
1/03
/201
9
1/04
/201
9
1/05
/201
9
1/06
/201
9
1/07
/201
9
1/08
/201
9
1/09
/201
9
1/10
/201
9
1/11
/201
9
1/12
/201
9
1/01
/202
0
1/02
/202
0
1/03
/202
0
1/04
/202
0
1/05
/202
0
1/06
/202
0
1/07
/202
0
1/08
/202
0
Brogo Dam - Forecast Storage Levels
Actual
Minimum99% COE
Dry 80%COE
Median50% COE
Page 25 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Hunter Valley
Storage Status
• Glenbawn Dam is at 65%, while Glennies Creek Dam is at 67%, and Lostock Dam is 97% of active capacity.
Predicted Release Patterns
• Releases from Glenbawn are currently around 225ML/d and are likely to remain at this level for the current week, with an increase the following week.
• Glennies Creek Dam releases are currently around 125 ML/d and are likely to remain the same during the week before ceasing the following week for maintenance works.
• Lostock Dam has ceased spilling and is releasing around 35 ML/d.
Operating Conditions
• No significant rain has been observed across the valley in the last week.
• Rainfall is forecasted towards the end of the week.
• Maximum temperatures are forecast to remain around 23 degrees, with minimums around 2 degrees.
• Recent BGA sampling at Hunter storages indicates a green alert is maintained at Glenbawn and Glennies Creek and Lostock.
Planned Supply Interruptions
• Nil
Page 26 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%1
/06/
201
7
1/0
7/20
17
1/0
8/20
17
1/0
9/20
17
1/1
0/20
17
1/1
1/20
17
1/1
2/20
17
1/0
1/20
18
1/0
2/20
18
1/0
3/20
18
1/0
4/20
18
1/0
5/20
18
1/0
6/20
18
1/0
7/20
18
1/0
8/20
18
1/0
9/20
18
1/1
0/20
18
1/1
1/20
18
1/1
2/20
18
1/0
1/20
19
1/0
2/20
19
1/0
3/20
19
1/0
4/20
19
1/0
5/20
19
1/0
6/20
19
1/0
7/20
19
1/0
8/20
19
1/0
9/20
19
1/1
0/20
19
1/1
1/20
19
1/1
2/20
19
1/0
1/20
20
1/0
2/20
20
1/0
3/20
20
1/0
4/20
20
1/0
5/20
20
Sto
rage
% c
apac
ity
Hunter Dams - Forecast Storage Levels %
Actual Dry 80% COE Median 50% COE
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1/06
/201
7
1/07
/201
7
1/08
/201
7
1/09
/201
7
1/10
/201
7
1/11
/201
7
1/12
/201
7
1/01
/201
8
1/02
/201
8
1/03
/201
8
1/04
/201
8
1/05
/201
8
1/06
/201
8
1/07
/201
8
1/08
/201
8
1/09
/201
8
1/10
/201
8
1/11
/201
8
1/12
/201
8
1/01
/201
9
1/02
/201
9
1/03
/201
9
1/04
/201
9
1/05
/201
9
1/06
/201
9
1/07
/201
9
1/08
/201
9
1/09
/201
9
1/10
/201
9
1/11
/201
9
1/12
/201
9
1/01
/202
0
1/02
/202
0
1/03
/202
0
1/04
/202
0
1/05
/202
0
Sto
rage
% c
apac
ity
Lostock Dam - Forecast Storage Level Minimum annual percentile inflows from 1 August 2018
Actual Dry 80% COE Median 50% COE Wet 20% COE Drought
Page 27 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
Toonumbar Dam
Storage Status
• Toonumbar Dam is currently at 94%.
Predicted Release Patterns
• Alternating releases between 40ML/day and 14 ML/day due to the small flow regulator not repaired at this point.
Operating Conditions
• Recent BGA sampling at Toonumbar indicates that a green alert level is maintained.
• Dry conditions steady demand expected.
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
1/0
8/2
012
1/1
2/2
012
1/0
4/2
013
1/0
8/2
013
1/1
2/2
013
1/0
4/2
014
1/0
8/2
014
1/1
2/2
014
1/0
4/2
015
1/0
8/2
015
1/1
2/2
015
1/0
4/2
016
1/0
8/2
016
1/1
2/2
016
1/0
4/2
017
1/0
8/2
017
1/1
2/2
017
1/0
4/2
018
1/0
8/2
018
1/1
2/2
018
1/0
4/2
019
1/0
8/2
019
1/1
2/2
019
1/0
4/2
020
1/0
8/2
020
Sto
rage
% c
apac
ity
Toonumbar Dam- Forecast Storage Level Minimum annual percentile inflows from 1 August 2018
Actual Dry 80% COE Median 50% COE
Wet 20% COE Minimum 99% COE
Page 28 of 28
Water Availability Weekly Report – 20 August 2018
WaterNSW (Rural) – Dam Levels
The following table shows the status of water supplies at 20 August 2018
River Valley Capacity Current Status
Weekly
change
(GL)
Comments Likeli-
hood
of fill
and
spill
Allocations for 2018/19
Storage Dam, Nearest Town (GL)
% of
active
capacity
Active
(GL) Supply Issues
High
Security
General
Security
Est
Carry-
over @
1/7/18
Border Rivers
Glenlyon Dam, Stanthorpe Qld 254 47% 121 -1 Releases ceased. <20% 100% 1.8% 53%
Pindari Dam, Inverell 312 58% 179 -1 Releases continue for Boomi
replenishment 20% 100% 1.8% 53%
Gwydir Valley
Copeton Dam, Inverell 1346 24% 329 -5 Planned environmental releases. <5% 100% 0% 22%
Namoi Valley
Keepit Dam, Gunnedah 419 11% 44 -0 Releases ceased <20% 100% 0% 19%
Split Rock Dam, Manilla 394 14% 55 -0 Releases for upper Namoi <5% 100% 100% N/A
Chaffey Dam, Tamworth 98 55% 54 -0 Regulated releases 50% 100% 29% N/A
Macquarie Valley
Burrendong Dam, Wellington 1154 33% 385 -9 Environmental releases 20% 100% 0% 54%
Windamere Dam, Mudgee 367 40% 148 -0 Irrigation deliveries <5% 100% 0% 114%
Lachlan Valley
Wyangala Dam, Cowra 1216 59% 723 -7 Irrigation deliveries 20% 100% 0% 63%
Carcoar Dam, Carcoar 36 55% 20 0 Minimum releases 10% 100% 0% 67%
Murrumbidgee Valley
Burrinjuck Dam, Yass 1025 41% 417 2 Transparent / translucent releases 20% 95% 6% 22%
Blowering Dam, Tumut 1604 73% 1175 8 Irrigation / environmental deliveries 20% 95% 6% 22%
Murray Valley
Dartmouth, Mitta Mitta (Vic) 3837 88% 3390 -1 Operational releases N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hume Dam, Albury 2982 48% 1439 45 Irrigation / environmental deliveries <25% 97% 0% 31%
Lower Darling
Menindee Lakes, Broken Hill 1684 8% 135 -4 Minimum releases N/A 100% 0% 15%
Hunter Valley
Glenbawn Dam, Scone 750 65% 486 -2 Regulated releases 20% 100% 100% 21%
Glennies Ck Dam, Singleton 282 67% 190 -1 Regulated releases 20% 100% 100% 21%
Lostock Dam, Gresford 20 97% 19 -0 Minimum releases 90% 100% 100% N/A
Coastal Area
Toonumbar Dam, Kyogle 11 94% 10 -0 Minimum releases 100% 100% 100% N/A
Brogo Dam, Bega 9 80% 7 -0 Regulated flow conditions 100% 100% 75% N/A
TOTALS 17,798 52.4% 9327 21
WaterNSW has water resources in Dartmouth, Hume and Glenlyon Dams. TWS = Town Water Supplies
1 Gigalitre (GL) = 1,000 Megalitres (ML) 1 ML = 1,000,000 litres For information on WaterNSW (Urban) Dam Levels, follow this link: waternsw.com.au/supply/dam-levels/greater-sydneys-dam-levels
