Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Interconnected Challenges and … Center/documents/2… · Hydraulic Civilizations: A Historical Perspective . 3 Modern systems for water, energy, and food

2015 University of Oklahoma International WaTER Conference

Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Interconnected Challenges and Convergent Opportunities

Afreen Siddiqi, Ph.D. Research Scientist September 22, 2015

Harvard Kennedy School

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2

Canals in Ancient Egypt

Aquaducts of The Roman Empire

Hydraulic Civilizations: A Historical Perspective

3

Modern systems for water, energy, and food have become inter-connected

4

Growing demands for water, energy, and food have intensified inter-linkages

•  Many new water supplies – desalination, waste-water recycling – require more energy than traditional sources

!  New technologies to access energy resources – such as hydraulic fracturing - use more water

!  Bio-fuels can be a source of energy but may impact water use and food production

!  Food prices are sensitive to the cost of energy inputs through fertilizers, irrigation, transport and processing.

5

Water security, food security and energy security are interrelated

Water-Energy-Food nexus conceptually recognizes the emergent and intensified interconnections

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Practitioners have raised concerns over scarcity of one resource impacting production of the other

impact

unce

rtai

nty

Source: World Economic Forum Energy Industry Issue Map 2007/2008

7

impact

unce

rtai

nty

Water

Source: World Economic Forum Energy Industry Issue Map 2008/2009

8

Water Intensity of fuel production

Water Consumption of Energy Resource Extraction, Processing and Conversion, Mielke (2010)

9

Water Intensity of Electricity Generation

Water Consumption of Energy Resource Extraction, Processing and Conversion, Mielke (2010)

Elec

tric

ity g

ener

atio

n an

d co

olin

g te

chno

logi

es

Water consumption (gal/MWh)

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A key challenge in this century is to identify the emergent interconnections and provide convergent solutions

We need to know how does quenching our thirst for water increase our hunger for

energy

and how does our appetite for energy impact the cost of food

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

# of

pub

licat

ions

Journal publication trends show emergence of ‘nexus’ research on water, energy, and food

Data Source: Compendex database

US 35%

Australia 7% Turkey

5% UK 4%

China 4%

France 3%

Germany 3%

Spain 3%

India 3%

UAE 3%

Canada 2%

Sweden 2%

Japan 2%

Netherlands 2%

Greece 2%

S. Korea 2%

South Africa 2%

Others 17%

12

Irrigated-agriculture lies at the core of the water-energy-food nexus

Irrigated agriculture accounts for 40% of global crop production and grew 1.5% annually from 1950s-1990s

13 http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/irrigationmap/index10.stm

South-Asia has the most intensely irrigated large-scale agriculture system in the world

14

GDP

AGRICULTURE

SERVICES

INDUSTRY

POPULATION: 180 MILLION POPULATION GROWTH RATE: 1.8%

82% URBAN

20.1%

25.5% 54.4%

Siddiqi, A. and Wescoat, J. L., “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan” , Water International (2013) 38 (5), pp 571-586.

The region is a great laboratory and a precursor to what the future may bring to other places with population growth

Pakistan

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length (km) : 3,180 annual flow (km3) : 207

Avg. Discharge (m3/s) : 6600 Basin Area (km2) : 1,005,786 Total Population (Million) : 237 Basin Precipitation (mm/yr): 423

Source: Laghari et al. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2012: 1063-1083.

The Indus Basin spans a million square km and is home to 237 million people

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"  Low precipitation and high ET render the region largely arid.

"  Rain fed agriculture is limited.

Ref: Laghari et al. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2012: 1063-1083.

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Key Features of Surface Irrigation System

"  ~129 km3 of water is diverted annually to the canal network for irrigating 44 million acres

"  There are large delivery losses (40% – 60%) in the surface system

Indus basin irrigation system forms the world’s largest contiguous network of surface canals

18

y = -0.1824x + 67.443 R² = 0.11952

30.000

35.000

40.000

45.000

50.000

55.000

60.000

65.000

70.000

75.000

1980

-81

19

81-

82

1982

-83

19

83-

84

1984

-85

19

85-

86

1986

-87

19

87-

88

1988

-89

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1990

-91

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92

1992

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94

1994

-95

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96

1996

-97

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97-

98

1998

-99

19

99-

00

2000

-01

20

01-

02

2002

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03-

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2004

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2006

-07

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08

2008

-09

20

09-

10

2010

-11

Bill

ion

Cub

ic M

eter

s

Canal Withdrawal in Punjab Total-BCM Linear(Total-BCM)

The trend is of decreasing annual canal withdrawals

Canal water availability has slightly declined annually

Data Source: Punjab Development Statistics 2012

19

Tubewells in 1995 Tubewells in 2010

Dot Density: 1 dot = 500 Tubewells

A conjunctive irrigation system has emerged with surface and ground water use that now depends on energy


20

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000 19

70-7

1 19

71-7

2 19

72-7

3 19

73-7

4 19

74-7

5 19

75-7

6 19

76-7

7 19

77-7

8 19

78-7

9 19

79-8

0 19

80-8

1 19

81-8

2 19

82-8

3 19

83-8

4 19

84-8

5 19

85-8

6 19

86-8

7 19

87-8

8 19

88-8

9 19

89-9

0 19

90-9

1 19

91-9

2 19

92-9

3 19

93-9

4 19

94-9

5 19

95-9

6 19

96-9

7 19

97-9

8 19

98-9

9 19

99-0

0 20

00-0

1 20

01-0

2 20

02-0

3 20

03-0

4 20

04-0

5 20

05-0

6 20

06-0

7 20

07-0

8 20

08-0

9

Tube

wel

ls in

Pun

jab

Total Electric Tubewells Total Diesel Tubewells

off-grid distributed system

A massive pumping system draws water from the ground to augment surface water supplies for agriculture

Data Source: Punjab Development Statistics

21

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

0.000

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000 19

86-8

7 19

87-8

8 19

88-8

9 19

89-9

0 19

90-9

1 19

91-9

2 19

92-9

3 19

93-9

4 19

94-9

5 19

95-9

6 19

96-9

7 19

97-9

8 19

98-9

9 19

99-0

0 20

00-0

1 20

01-0

2 20

02-0

3 20

03-0

4 20

04-0

5 20

05-0

6 20

06-0

7 20

07-0

8 20

08-0

9

Irrig

ated

Are

a (W

heat

) [10

00 h

ecta

res]

Punj

ab C

anal

Div

ersi

ons

(Rab

i) [M

AF]

Canal Diversions (MAF)

Estimated Pumpage Irrigated Area

Decreasing surface water supplies have led to increased ground water pumping ! Energy input for irrigated agriculture has increased

Bridging the Supply Gap with Pumped Water

Siddiqi, A. (2012), MITEI Annual Research Conference, MIT .

22

Reported data of energy use in agriculture provides only partial information of total energy used in the sector

-

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1980

-81

1981

-82

1982

-83

1983

-84

1984

-85

1985

-86

1986

-87

1987

-88

1988

-89

1989

-90

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

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-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

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-98

1998

-99

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-00

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-01

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-02

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-03

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9 20

09-1

0 20

10-1

1 20

11-1

2

k TO

E

Energy Use in Agriculture in Pakistan Agri Sector LDO [kTOE]

Agri Electricity in Pakistan [kTOE]

Data Source: Energy Year Book, HDIP (2010, 2012)

23

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000

1,000,000

1970

-71

1972

-73

1974

-75

1976

-77

1978

-79

1980

-81

1982

-83

1984

-85

1986

-87

1988

-89

1990

-91

1992

-93

1994

-95

1996

-97

1998

-99

2000

-01

2002

-03

2004

-05

2006

-07

2008

-09

Tube

wel

ls in

Pun

jab

Total Electric Tubewells Total Diesel Tubewells

Pumping system and farming machinery stock levels used for bottom up estimation of HSD consumption

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

20

11

Num

ber o

f Tra

ctor

s in

Pu

njab

!  Operation and usage data obtained from Punjab Agricultural Machinery Census of 1994 and 2004

!  Annual fuel use volume (Vkfuel) for

each type of element (power level and fuel use type) was estimated as:

where:

Sk: stock level of machinery in year k

cfuel: fuel consumption /hr

U: annual utilization

t: operating hours per day

d: number of operating days per year

€

Vfuel

k = Sk × c fuel ×Uk

U = t × d


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Benchmarking of the results showed reasonable agreement with reported data

!  The ratio of HSD motors used for water pumping changes from 24% (of total installed base) in 1994 census to 80% in the 2004 census.

!  This shift in fuel type contributes to steady decline of LDO sales

!  We compared country-level results of Pak-IEM model (which is MARKAL adapted for Pakistan)

Agriculture Energy Use (2007)

Pak-IEM Estimate (Pakistan)

Pak-IEM derived estimate for Punjab

MIT Study data and results

Electricity 0.8 Mtoe 0.8 X 0.47 = 370 ktoe

312 ktoe

LDO 0.1 Mtoe 0.1 X 0.9 = 90 ktoe

81 ktoe

HSD 2.7 Mtoe 2.7 X 0.9 = 2.43 Mtoe

2.4 Mtoe

Source: Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (Pak-IEM) – Final Report Vol. I, 2010

Electricity LDO HSD

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

k TO

E

Punjab Agri LDO Use bottom-up estimate of LDO use


25

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

k TO

E

Energy Use by Application and Fuel Type in Punjab Agriculture Electricity (pumping)

LDO (pumping)

HSD (pumping)

HSD (Farm Ops)

Water pumping is estimated to account for 61% of direct energy use in 2010 in farm-level operations

pumping

pumping

pumping

field operations

Siddiqi, A. and Wescoat, J. L., “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan”, Water International (2013) 38 (5), pp 571-586.

26

Energy estimates for agriculture show that the sector accounted for 20% of total energy use in Punjab in 2010

Domestic 12%

Industry 12%

Agriculture 20%

Transport 17% Commercial

2%

Power 35%

Other 2%

Energy Use in Sectors (Punjab) [kToe]

Domestic: 1764 Industry: 1785 Agriculture: 3118 Commercial: 287 Transport: 2634* Power: 5305 Other: 366

Total: 15259

Water pumping (~1909 kToe) is 12% of total energy use in the province in 2010.

Farm operations with tractors (~ 1209 kToe) is 8% of total energy use in 2010.

*HSD use estimate for agriculture was subtracted from official HSD transport numbers keeping the reported total energy use for the province


27

In contrast: reported estimates for agriculture (that exclude HSD) show only a 3% share in total energy use in the province in 2010

Domestic 12%

Industry 12%

Agriculture 3%

Transport 34%

Power 35%

Govt. 2%

Commercial 2%

Reported Energy Use in Sectors (Punjab) [kToe]

Domestic: 1764 Industry: 1785 Agriculture: 467 Commercial: 287 Transport: 5265 Power: 5305 Other: 366

Domestic 12%

Industry 12%

Agriculture 20%

Transport 17%

Commercial 2%

Power 35%

Other 2%

Estimation Adjusted Energy Use in Sectors (Punjab) [kToe]

Domestic: 1764 Industry: 1785 Agriculture: 3118 Commercial: 287 Transport: 2634 Power: 5305 Other: 366


28

Direct energy intensity for crop production in Punjab has increased from 1.03 MJ/kg to 1.86 MJ/kg

0.0000

0.2000

0.4000

0.6000

0.8000

1.0000

1.2000

1.4000

1.6000

1.8000

2.0000

MJ

/ kg

Direct Energy Intensity for Crop Production in Punjab Total pumping field operations


29 source: h*p://paksolarcells.com/solar-‐cells-‐posi4oning.asp?nodeid=43

Solar energy has significant potential for reducing dependence on diesel for pumping

Annual Solar Insolation in Pakistan

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Changing the equation for small hydro-power systems?

Siddiqi, A., Wescoat, J. L. Jr., Afridi, K., and Humair, S., (2012), “An Empirical Analysis of the Indus Basin Hydropower Portfolio”, Energy Policy, 50, pp 228-241

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!  Consider water, energy, food security as connected problems

!  Identify and fill critical knowledge gaps –  current information is fragmented, incomplete, and at times incorrect –  identify the extent of inter-dependencies –  establish or expand local research

!  Use knowledge of interactions to devise strategies and inform decisions –  the options space and decision space becomes larger for finding

solutions to simultaneously address multiple needs –  new strategic incentive structures can be built and utilized

Some key take-aways

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“Due to declining performance of the sector, as well as increased cost of inputs and inflation, the cost of food per head in the province has gone beyond Rs.3000 [$30] per month”

(‘Stagnation in Punjab Agriculture’ – DAWN)

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QUESTIONS?

Documents

Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Interconnected Challenges and … Center/documents/2… · Hydraulic Civilizations: A Historical Perspective . 3 Modern systems for water, energy, and food