Water for a food-secure world Water Resources as an Engine of Agricultural Growth in India Bharat Sharma International Water Management Institute (IWMI)

Water for a food-secure world

Water Resources as an Engine of Agricultural Growth in India

Bharat SharmaInternational Water Management Institute (IWMI)

9th Knowledge Millennium Summit 2011:

AIM@8%: Agricultural Innovations and MarketingHotel ITC Maurya, November 8-9, 2011; New Delhi, India


The Fact of the Matter is:

Agriculture Sector generating less than 20 per cent of national GDP but still supporting 60 percent of its population, about half of which is rural poor, needs urgent and innovative strategies.

Poverty in India continues to be a rural phenomenon- smallholders and wage-earners in particular- and can be addressed mainly through accelerated growth (AIM @ 8% ) of Indian agriculture.

It is impossible to have Good Agriculture with Bad or No Access and Control of the Water Resources at all levels: Field- Farm-Command- Region- State- Nation-


It makes sound corporate and business sense in improving , innovating and investing in agriculture and the water resources in India.

What are the Challen

ges ?

Where are the Opportunities

?

BUT ?


5

Indian Food Security: Imminent Challenges??

1. Indian Food Security is Precariously Hinged on Very High Productivity from Relatively Small and Water Stressed Regions. Vast Areas have Low Land and Water Productivity.

2. Groundwater is Now the Dominant Means of Indian Irrigation- But is Presently Ungoverned, Under-financed, Challenged by Energy-Irrigation Nexus and under Severe Stress.

3. Rainfed Agriculture has an Extremely Low, Variable and Vulnerable Productivity and Cries for an Immediate Small-Water-Based Turn-Around.

4. Climate Change may have Serious Impact on Water Resources, Water Related Hazards and thus on both Rainfed and Irrigated Agriculture Productivity.

Figure Changing structure of Indian agricultural production

65 66 62 5746

21 2121

2128

11 10 1316 19

4 3 4 6 7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1961-62 1971-72 1981-82 1991-92 2000-01

% o

f valu

e o

f ag

ricu

ltu

ral

ou

tpu

t

Field crops, sugar, fibres High value crops Milk Other livestock

Much diversification isOccurring outside command areas (IFPRI).

Much diversification requires small dozes ofyear-round, on-demandIrrigation.

Value added farming will expand withwaste-water irrigation andgroundwater.

Presently, the three groups have very comparable values.

Our planning is preoccupied with food grains; Indian farmer is diversifying in a hurry.

India’s Water Futures Scenarios

Additional Water Demand: Industry and Domestic Sectors shall be major players (large business opportunities)

Change in BAU and NCIWRD water demand projections from 2000

0

100

200

300

400

500

NCIWRD 2025-2000

BAU 2025-2000

NCIWRD 2050-2000

BAU 2050-2000

Wa

ter

de

ma

nd

ch

an

ge

(km

3)

Irrigation Domestic Industrial

Rs 100 000 crores spent since 1991, but no additional benefits. There has been no addition to Canal Irrigated areas for 14 years

Land Use Survey data on area irrigated by different sources in India

05000000

10000000150000002000000025000000300000003500000040000000

ha

canal surface Groundwater

Source: 1. CWC annual year books, various years. 2. Ministry of Agriculture, Agricultural statistics, various years 3. Website of Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, http://agricoop.nic.in/Agristatistics.htm

National Water Grid:• 30 links for 36 rivers• 3000 reservoirs• 12500 km of link

canals• 178 km3 of water/year;

• 35 m ha of irrigation• 35 GW of hydropower

• Completion-2050• Damage? US $ 120 b

@ 2002 prices

National River Linking Project of India

India will need to invest Rs 5-10 trillion in water infrastructure by 2050.

Does food grainSecurity justify

NRLP?

UrbanDemand?

Diversified, Value-addedAgriculture?

GW depletion?

All thingsConsidered,

Can NRLP be the bestResponse to

Livelihoods?employment

Industrialgrowth

PowerEnvironment

“Diggies” can mitigate unreliability at the farm level !!!!

What is a Diggi?• A small intermediate water storage structure• Located in a corner of the land holdings in

canal command areas in Indira Gandhi Nehar Pariyojana (IGNP) project

• Average size:– Area = 902 m2 ( 0.09 ha) . – Size = 3,160 m3

Rice productivity (kg/m3)

Mean AVG SDV Min Max

0.618 0.618 0.306 0.09 2.5

Rice Water Productivity in the Indus-Gangetic Basin

Where do we grow our most food ?

Irrigation water demand 4.45 m ha m

Surface water availability 1.43 m ha m

Groundwater availability (net draft) 1.61 m ha m

Total irrigation water availability 3.04 m ha m

Irrigation water deficit (-) 1.41 m ha m

Water Demand, Availability and Deficit in Punjab, India

India’s Groundwater

Juggernaut is stillAccelerating!!

1970-80

1980-90

Post-

1990

Livelihood-supporting GwSEs have high population pressure on land, large agricultural population, semi-arid monsoon climate. India is a typical case.

One in four farming households in India owns an irrigation well; and the rest use purchased pump irrigation.

10% of India’s GDP, 70% of its irrigated areas, 70-80% of its rural population, 60-70% of its farm output and incomes are linked to groundwater.

Tube well density follows

population density

Pre-1970

Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world

1.4 Objectives

48

17

346 50

565

495

984

327

42

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Milk

Wheat

Rice

Co

mm

od

ity

Water footprints (m3/tonne)

Effective rainfall - Internal Irrigation (canal water) - Internal

Irrigation (groundwater) - Internal Irrigation - External

Water footprints (Consumptive water

use)

Rice: 1,380 m3/ton

• Wheat: 554 m3/ton

• Milk- 940 m3/ton

• Contribution from external water

footprints to milk production is 37%


1.4 ObjectivesHow to reduce groundwater footprints

0.18 0.13

0.15

0.06

0.27

0.27

0.03

0.23

0.29

0.00 0.12 0.24 0.36 0.48 0.60 0.72

Value of output per m3 of groundwater WFP

(US$/m3)

Rice Wheat Milk-internal Milk-external

1418985

803

679

2630

4221

075015002250300037504500

Milk-wheat-rice

Milk-wheat

Milk only

Value of output per ha of net irrigated area (US$/ha)

• Reduce rice production and intensify milk production, because

Milk- wheat has the best returns in terms of water use

Milk only has the best returns in terms land use

Electricity Network Before Electricity Network After

Rural Gujarat Rewired under Jyotirgram Yojana (JGY)

Figure 2 Reduction in Gujarat Government's Electricity subsidies (million US $)

(Source: Patel, Dilip 2007)

786

484547

457384 388

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7

Electricity subsidies (million US $)

Jyotirgram Scheme’s impact on farm power subsidies

Power supply to agriculture fell from 13 b units in 2000/1

to 9 b units in 2005/6

Groundwater draft

fell by 20-30%

So…what might work in governing India’s Colossal Gw Anarchy…?

Banning private wells is futile; crowd them out by improving public water supply

Regulating final users is impossible; facilitate mediating agencies to emerge, and regulate them.

Pricing agricultural groundwater use is infeasible; instead, use energy pricing and supply to manage agricultural groundwater draft.

No alternative to improved supply side management: better rain-water capture and recharge, imported surface water in lieu of groundwater pumping.

Grow the economy, take pressure off land, formalize the water sector.


Water Availability, Cost of Water

PopulationPoverty

Resource UseHolding Size

EnergyProductivity

The “Eastern Syndrome”: Conundrum of Hydrology & Socio-Ecology

Over 90% of India’s electric pumps areIn western and peninsular India; here,

an invidious nexus between energy subsidies and gw over-draft

Is the major challenge

IWMI researchIs contributing

To some way out


Irrigation economy – diesel driven~higher costs; reduced returns

• 53% of villages electrified; 84% all-India• Diesel/kerosene drives irrigation• Almost 97% of the farmers use diesel pump for

irrigation (WB 2007)• Vibrant water markets:

– IWMI survey in 4 districts shows almost 70% buy water– Rentals go as high as Rs 70/hour– Farmers heavily economize on irrigation– Diesel subsidy has limited impact

• Prices are low; public procurement only 10% for rice

23

Irrigation cost relative to rice and wheat prices

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

1990 1995 2000 2005

kgF Deoria: Relative price of diesel and diesel pump irrigation w.r.t

farmgate food prices

kg of wheat to buy 1 litre of diesel

kgs of wheat to pay for 1 hour of pump irrigation

kg of rice to buy 1 litre of diesel

kg of rice to buy one hour of pump irrigation

Most location-partners have noted that many marginal farmers and Share croppers are moving out of irrigation farming..

But there are many who can not and are coping with the energy squeeze..

Ideas to relieve stress on small-holder irrigation in IGB

• Diesel efficient pumps; promote Chinese/ small pumps

• Pumps in the hands of the poor• Subsidized diesel-as for fisher-folk in Gujarat?• Kerosene ration for farmers? As in Kerala.• Give small farmers LPG ration?• Treadle pump? Return to gravity flow irrigation?• Political strategy: Increase power supply.• Increase the supply of electric connections and do a

Jyotirgram• Target electric tubewell connections to the poor• Co-operative electric tubewells?• Promote professional sellers of pump irrigation

service.


PARADIGM SHIFT

We have been trying to convert East to the Grain and Capital Intensive Model of Northwest: It is not working and is less likely to Work!!

The more suitable model appears to convert EAST to Natural Resource, People, Diversification, High Value and Micro-holding based model of the SOUTHEAST: Time is now ripe to give it a chance!!!


1.4 ObjectivesYield gap in Rainfed dominated districts

Multiple Water-Use Systems for the Upper Catchments

Improving crop and water productivity and livelihoods in the mid-Himalayas

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Need for

Adaptations for Agriculture

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?g=events/sc/060503environmentday&a=&tmpl=sl&ns=&l=1&e=53&a=0


From pixels….to information….to simple action messages

For each field: weekly predictions:

Smart Information and Communications Technology (ICT) for Weather and Water Information and Advice to Smallholders


From pixels….to information….to simple action messages


“Humankind in the 21st century will need to bring about a Blue Revolution to complement the Asian Green Revolution of the 20th century… New science and technology must lead the way”.- Norman Borlaug, Nobel Peace Laureate

Thank You for being a wonderful audience!!

Bharat Sharma, IWMI-New [email protected]

Documents

Water for a food-secure world Water Resources as an Engine of Agricultural Growth in India Bharat Sharma International Water Management Institute (IWMI)