Water Management Strategies for Drought Mitigation and Sustainable Agricultural Production December 13-14, 2012, Bradford Farm, Columbia, MO Pat Guinan

Water Management Strategies for Drought Mitigation and Sustainable Agricultural Production December 13-14, 2012, Bradford Farm, Columbia, MO

Pat Guinan Extension\State Climatologist University of Missouri Commercial Agriculture Program

Missouri Weather/Climate Trends

The climate system is extremely complex with numerous factors that drive it: atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, solar and human.

Dep

artu

re fr

om N

orm

al (°

F)GLOBAL ANNUAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

(1895-2011)10 yr. running mean

Data Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center

Using long-term average: 1901-2000

Warm YearCool Year

1977

REGIONAL ANNUAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (1895-2012*)

10 yr. running mean

Dep

artu

re fr

om N

orm

al (°

F)

Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA

Long-term average: 1895-2010

*assuming average Dec temperaturesWarm YearCool Year

20121921

19311934 1954

191719791912 1924 1993

Major Presidential Declared Disasters (2006-2011)

1. Oklahoma 25 2. Missouri 20 3. Nebraska 17 4. Kansas 15 5. Iowa

14 6. New York14 7. South Dakota

14 8. Arkansas 13 9. Tennessee 13 10. Illinois 12

Groundhog Day Blizzard Feb 2011

P. Guinan

Southeast Missouri Flooding Apr 2011

USACE

Good Friday EF-4 Tornado Apr 2011

NWS

Joplin EF-5 Tornado

May 2011NWS

Northwest Missouri FloodingSummer 2011

P. Guinan

http://climateprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Flood.gif

2012 dominated by unprecedented warmth and extreme drought…

E. Cole E. Cole

K. Graham

E. Cole

P. Guinan P. Guinan

C. Starbuck

U.S. National Weather Service Cooperative Weather Station Network

“The Backbone of the Nation’s Climate Records”

National Weather Service Cooperative Network

NOAA

2008

Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure From Average* Jan 2008 – Nov 2012


Unprecedented warmth in 2012…

2011-12: 3rd warmest winter 2012: 1st warmest March 2012: 1st warmest spring 2012: 1st warmest Jan-Nov 2012: warmest year on record? Highest above normal departure for

any month since 1895 (1,415 months)

2009 2010 2011 2012

Missouri Average Winter Temperature (Dec-Jan-Feb, 1895-2012*)

*The winter of 2012 is defined as Dec 2011 and Jan, Feb 2012

5 yr. running mean Long-term average: 32.4°F

1931-32

’91-92’99-00’01-02

2011-12

1904-05 1917-18 1935-36 1977-78 1978-79

Cool PeriodWarm Period

3rd warmest winter last year…

Missouri Average Spring Temperature (Mar-Apr-May, 1895-2012)

Long-term average: 54.3°F 5 yr. running mean

19461977

19912007

2012

19241960

19841983

1947

Warm PeriodCool Period



Late Fall/Early Spring Vulnerability

Armistice Day Blizzard & Freeze

Easter Freeze, April 3-9, 2007

11/11/11

Nov 11, 1940

We dodged a bullet this year…

+14.1°!!

Missouri Average March Temperature (1895-2012)


Median Date of Last Spring Frost (≤ 32°F) (1971-2000)

Median Date of Last Spring Frost (≤ 32°F)

Long term (1895-2010)vs.

Past 3 decades (1981-2010)

4/19

4/16

4/26

4/22 4/114/08

4/10

4/09

4/174/18

4/194/184/12

4/14

4/12

4/204/21

4/17

4/13

4/09

4/06

4/09

4/19

4/12

4/14

4/26

4/27

4/11

4/13

4/21

4/15

4/18

4/30

4/30

4/06

4/12

In general, the last spring freeze date is occurring 3-4 days earlier…

4/11

4/08

Missouri Average Summer Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2012)

Long-term average: 75.6°F


Cool PeriodWarm Period1915

1927 1950 1992 2004

1901

19341936

1954 1980

5 yr. running mean

3 hot summers



Missouri Average Autumn Temperature (Sep-Oct-Nov, 1895-2012)


Warm PeriodCool Period 1976

1931

196319981938 1971

19931896 1996

1951

Median Date of First Fall Frost (≤ 32°F)

Long term (1895-2010)vs.

Past 30 years (1981-2010)

10/16

10/12

10/13

10/17 10/1610/25

10/20

10/20

10/1210/12

10/1310/1810/24

10/20

10/21

10/1210/11

10/13

10/19

10/18

10/23

10/24

10/19

10/19

10/19

10/10

10/12

10/23

10/21

10/20

10/20

10/18

10/10

10/11

10/26

10/24

In general, there has been little change in the first fall frost date…

Missouri Annual Average Temperature (1895-2012)

5 yr. running meanAssuming normal temps in December

Long-term average: 54.6°F


20121921 19311938 1954

18951904 19241917 1979Warm Period

Cool Period

2012 will be warmest year on record…

From one extreme to another…

Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average* Jan 2008 – Nov 2012


Only 2 months in 2012 w/ above normal precip,

Mar and Sep

Extreme Drought

Extreme Wetness

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Missouri Jan-Nov Average Precipitation (1895-2012)

Long-term average: 38.71”

20081993197319271898

1953190119801936 1976

Driest Jan-Nov since 1980


Missouri Annual Average Precipitation (1895-2012)


Long-term average: 41.14” 5 yr. running mean

Assuming average December precip: 11th driest yearWet Period

Dry Period

1898 1927 1973 1993 2008

1901 1953197619801963

Number of Daily Rainfall Events ≥ 1 inch in Missouri 1895-2012*

19271973 1993

2008

2009

Average: 303 events 10 yr. running mean

*thru 12/131953 197619301901 1952

Missouri May-Aug Average Precipitation (1895-2012)

Long-term average: 16.93”1915

1935 1951

19811993

19017.65”

19139.61”

19366.47”

19538.24”

3rd driest

20128.22”

Wet PeriodDry Period


Maximum drought intensity…

July 31, 2012May 1, 2012

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

U.S. Drought Monitor, MissouriAug 28, 2012

Drought Severity categories:

In addition to lack of rainfall in 2012, drought rapidly evolved due to additional factors …

1. Persistent above normal temperatures…

Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure From Average* Jan 2011 – Nov 2012

2011 2012

Record Warmth

*Long-term average: 1895-2010

Extension Commercial Agriculture Automated Weather Station Network

agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/index.htm

Real-time(Updates every 5 minutes)

30 weather stations in the network, 20 of them real-time.

agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/index.htm

Date climate.missouri.edu

Daily VPD for 2012

Daily avg VPD (1995-2012)

Daily Vapor Pressure Deficits for May-August 2012 vs. Average

Columbia, Missouri, Sanborn Field

2. Unusually low atmospheric moisture content…

2 cont. Unusually low atmospheric moisture content…

Average Summer Dew Point Temperature Columbia, MO Jun-Jul-Aug, 1948-2012

20121976

197519671972

2nd lowest

1993 1995 20102011

1949

Daily Solar Radiation for May-August 2012 vs. Average Columbia, Missouri – Sanborn Field

Daily solar for 2012

Daily avg solar (1995-2012)

Date

3. Unusually high number of sunny days…

climate.missouri.edu

Cloudy Days: <14 MJ/m2

Class A Pan Evaporation Apr-Sep (in.) HARC*, New Franklin, MO, 1956-2012

*Horticulture and Agroforestry Research Center

1980

1988

20121956

1959

Highest water loss in 24 years

19932008-11

High temp, low RH, high solar translated to large evaporative losses…

Columbia, Missouri Daily Short Crop Evapotranspiration (in.) May-August 2012

…and unusually high evapotranspiration rates…

Date

Total May-Aug 2012 Evapotranspiration was 25.80 in. Total May-Aug Precipitation at Columbia was 4.11 in.

6/5/20126/5/2012


Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average* Jan 2008 – Nov 2012


Wettest year on record

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2012 is a “young drought” when compared to others…

Jan 2008-Nov 2012 departure from average: +26.19”

27 out of 59 months below normal, 46%

9.42” deficit

Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average* Jan 1952 – Dec 1956


1952 1953 1954 1955 1956

The 1952-56 period is the driest 5 consecutive years on record for Missouri.Jan 1952- Dec 1956 departure from normal: - 48.09 inches!!

45 out of 60 months below normal, 75%

A multi-year drought…

Radar estimated precipIsaac remnants in Missouri

8/31/2012

First significant dent in drought comes from Isaac…

1 to 5+ inches

Post Isaac precipitation events…

Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Sep 2, 2012 to Dec 12, 2012

MRCC

4-5”

5 - 7.5”7.5 - 10”

10-12.5” 12.5-15”

<1

1-1.5” 3-4”

MRCC

Precipitation Departure from Mean (in.) Sep 2, 2012 to Dec 12 , 2012

Deficit has mostly increased since Isaac…

Precipitation Departure from Mean (in.) May 1, 2012 to Dec 12, 2012

Significant 7-month deficits remain, central US. bullseye….

MRCC

U.S. Drought Status as of Dec 11, 2012

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

U.S. Drought Status as of Aug 28, 2012

According to Missouri Ag Statistics Service, as of Nov 11, 2012: Topsoil moisture supply: 48% short to very short Subsoil moisture supply: 79% short to very short Hay supplies: 80% short to very short Stock water supplies: 76% short to very short Pasture condition: 56% poor to very poor

P. Guinan, Columbia, MO Photo taken Dec 9, 2012

Some recovery in Missouri, but impacts remain…

•Remnants of Hurricane Isaac, in combination with wetter and cooler conditions in September and October, have provided relief for Missouri, but lingering drought impacts remain. Complete drought elimination for Missouri will take frequent, widespread and significant precipitation events as we progress through winter. A significant deficit has accumulated over the past several months and it will take a substantial amount of water to recharge the soil profile and surface water and groundwater supplies.

Drought Summary•An intense, persistent and historic growing season drought affected Missouri in 2012. The combination of above normal temperature, low humidity, numerous sunny days, and lack of precipitation led to a rapid onset of impacts, i.e. agriculture.

•Historic climate data for Missouri indicates it was the 3rd warmest May through August period on record and the 3rd driest May through August period on record. It was also the warmest and driest May-Aug since 1936.

•The 2012 drought resulted in numerous impacts, affecting many sectors in Missouri. However, it is a young drought when compared to other historic droughts, i.e. 1952-56. An important question we all need to consider is how prepared are we when the next multi-year drought affects the Show Me State?

1981-2010 Mean Winter Precipitation (in.) Dec-Jan-Feb

Hydrological drought will likely remain at start of next year’s growing season over much of the central U.S.

4-55-7.5

7.5-10

3-42-3

10-12.512.5-15

1.5-2

Temperature and

Precipitation Outlooks

Climate Outlooks

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Climate Prediction Center

Dec-Jan-Feb Temperature Outlook

Issued: Nov 15, 2012

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Climate Prediction Center

Issued: Nov 15, 2012

Dec-Jan-Feb Precipitation Outlook

Top 15 Driest Mays in Missouri What happened the following summer…

13% of summers cooler than normal

6% of summers wetter than normal

Near normal temp: ± 1°F

Near normal rain: ± 1.0”

Potential summer drought signal for Missouri…

Rank

67% of summers warmer than normal

20% of summers near normal temp

60% of summers drier than normal

33% of summers near normal rainfall

•It’s impossible to say whether we’re slipping into an extended multi-year dry period, but I would be surprised if the trend of unprecedented wetness we’ve witnessed over the past few decades continues.

Some thoughts…

•No one anticipated the severity and magnitude of the 2012 drought and, similarly, no one knows what 2013 will bring.

•Extended dry and wet patterns can change abruptly and there are numerous occasions, both in temp and precipitation, where Missouri transitioned from one extreme to another in a short period of time.

•Recent historical trends for Missouri indicate an unprecedented multi-decadal wet period beginning in the early 1980’s and persisting until recently. Conversely, there have been decadal and multi-decadal dry periods, i.e. 1930’s and 1950’s through the 1960’s.

•Missouri’s most recent warm annual temperature trend began in 1998; 12 out of the past 15 years (80%) have been above normal. The 1930’s ranks as the warmest decade on record for Missouri, 2000-2009 tied with the 1950s for 2nd warmest decade. 2012 will be our warmest year on record (since 1895).

•Seasonally, Missouri winters have experienced the greatest warming trend, 16 out of the past 23 winters (70%) have been above normal and 4 out of the 5 warmest winters on record have occurred since 1991.

Missouri Climate Trends

•Following winter, the biggest seasonal warming trend in Missouri has been during the spring period (Mar-Apr-May); there have been only 3 cooler than normal springs since 1998 (80%).

•The median last spring frost date in Missouri is occurring about 3-4 days earlier over the past 30 years compared to the long-term average.

Updated through Dec 2012


•Recent temperature trend signals during the summer and autumn have been weak. Up until the past 3 years, Missouri summers have not been unusually hot compared to others in the past, ie. 1901, 1934,1936, 1954 and 1980.

•The median first fall frost date in Missouri has varied little over the past 30 years compared to the long-term average.

•Beginning in the early 1980’s, and since 1895, an unprecedented wet period has evolved in Missouri. Since 1981, 21 out of 32 years (65%) have had above normal precipitation.

•Over the past few decades, all 4 seasons have witnessed more above normal precipitation years in Missouri; most notably in winter where 22 out the past 31 winters recorded above normal precipitation (71%). Snowfall trends have been declining.



• 28 cooperative weather stations have been reporting daily precipitation for 117 years, or since 1895; half of these stations have broken all-time 24-hour precipitation records since 1973 (over the past 37 years).

•Over the past few decades, Missouri has witnessed an above normal trend in heavy (≥ 1”) and extreme (≥ 3”) precipitation events compared to the long-term average.

•Since 1970, 66% of the years, or 27 out of 41 years, have experienced an above normal number of days with measurable precipitation events (≥ 0.01”) in Missouri compared to the long-term average.



www.cocorahs.org

Important tools for drought assessments…

MissouriJun 2012 327/day Jul 2012 328/day Aug 2012 337/day Sep 2012 348/day Oct 2012 336/day Nov 2012 327/day www.cocorahs.org

Dec 4, 2012

Important tools for drought assessments…

Use the Drought Impact Reporter…

http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/

Documents

Water Management Strategies for Drought Mitigation and Sustainable Agricultural Production December 13-14, 2012, Bradford Farm, Columbia, MO Pat Guinan