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Water Modeling in GCAM –
Key Accomplishments & Future Directions
Mohamad Hejazi
Jae Edmonds, Leon Clarke, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Page Kyle, Evan Davies, Jiyong Eom, Pralit Patel, Marshall Wise, Sonny Kim, Kate Calvin
Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI)
College Park, MD
Thursday September 20, 2012
Overview
Water in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)
Global water availability – A global hydrologic model
Global water demands by sectors
Current and future estimates of water scarcity under a set of
alternative socioeconomic pathways
Their relative impacts on global water scarcity
Climate change (GCMs, emission pathways)
Socioeconomic drivers (population, income, technology, etc.)
Climate change mitigation policies (type, stringency)
2
Incorporating Water in GCAM
WATER WATER
► Energy ► Agriculture ► Domestic
► Energy ► Agriculture ► Domestic
Water Demand Water Demand
► Surface
► Ground
► Natural Lakes
► Surface
► Ground
► Natural Lakes
Water Supply Water Supply
► Water prices
► Water prices
Water Markets Water Markets
Land
Characteristics
Land
Characteristics
Climate Inputs Climate Inputs 3
WATER SUPPLY Model & Results
4
Water Supply – A Global Hydrologic Model
5 Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia
The Effects of Climate Change on Runoff
(Percent Change between 2095 & 2005)
6
WATER DEMAND Model & Results
7
Representation of all Components of
the Water Demand Sectors in GCAM
8
Estimates of Global Water
Demands in 2005 & 2095
Global water demands by sector in years 2005 and 2095 (under three alternative scenarios with variations in technology, income, & population) 9
ALTERNATIVE
SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS
Future Water Demand Results
10
Socioeconomic
Scenarios
SIX SCENARIOS:
1. Collapse (POP6/MDG-)
2. Sustainability and Equity (POP6/MDG+)
3. Muddling Through (POP9/MDG-)
4. Consumerism (POP9/MDG+)
5. Crowded Chaos (POP14/MDG-)
6. Social Conservatism (POP14/MDG+)
Eom, J., et al. (2012), Scenarios of Future Socio-economics, Energy, Land Use and Radiative Forcing, in Robert G. Watt, Energy and Climate Change, In Preparation, edited.
Comparison among the six scenarios with respect to socioeconomics (e.g.: population, GDP and per capita income), climatic variables (e.g.: ΔT, radiative forcings, & CO2 concentration), land (e.g.: cropland area, biomass area), & energy (e.g.: electricity generation, & primary energy consumption) assumptions
11
Global Water Withdrawal Distribution
for Six Alternative Scenarios
Global water withdrawal distribution for all six SSP scenarios and all water sectors In years 2005 and 2095; the circle diameter corresponds to the total annual withdrawal volume.
12
Global Water Withdrawals vs.
Literature Estimates of Water Use
Sources: Gleick 2003 (and references therein), Falkenmark & Rockström, 2000, Alcamo et al. 2003a, Alcamo et al. 2003b, Shiklomanov & Rodda, 2003, Alcamo et al., 2007, Shen et al. 2008, Wada et al., 2011, and AQUASTAT 2011 13
Preliminary Assessment of Water Scarcity
Water scarcity in years 2005, 2050, and 2095 at the 14-GCAM regions due to changing water demands; total water supply (renewable water + desalinated water) are assumed fixed to 2005 levels to capture the effect of demand projection alone on water scarcity; the error-bars represent the range of values based on the six SSP scenarios; WSI values above 0.4 are considered severely stressed regions
14
WATER SCARCITY Methodology & Results
15
Impact Assessment: Water Scarcity
Domestic
Agriculture
(irrigation & livestock)
Electricity
Generation
Primary Energy & Mining
Manufa-cturing
Global Water
Demand
For a given climate mitigation policy scenario & particular year:
Global gridded-map of total water
demands
Requirement: Downscale demands to grid scale
Global gridded-map of total water
demands
Requirement: Downscale demands to grid scale
Water Supply
Severe Stress:
0.4 ≤ WSI
Moderate Stress:
0.2 ≤ WSI < 0.4
Low Stress:
0.1 ≤ WSI < 0.2
No Stress:
WSI < 0.1
16
Water Scarcity in 2005
17
Water Scarcity in 2095
18
Change in Water Scarcity
19
IMPACT OF CLIMATE POLICY &
SOCIOECONOMIC DRIVERS
Methodology & Results
20
Consistent World of Water
Demand & Supply in GCAM
4 GCMs 4 GCMs
Hydrology Hydrology
Force GCAM to reproduce the above radiative forcing pathways using:
21
Global Water Demands
Global Accessible Water (10,150 km3/yr) Postel et al. (1996)
22
Relative Impacts
23
The Effects of Climate Change
Mitigation Policies on Water Scarcity
24
Percent of Population Living under Severe Water Scarcity Conditions in Year 2095 under Different Climate Policies
25
Global Population Living under Different
Thresholds of Water Scarcity Conditions
26
The Effects of Socioeconomic Drivers
on Water Scarcity in 2050
Shifts in the Cumulative Density Function of Global Population in 2050 27
The Effects of Socioeconomic Drivers
on Water Scarcity in 2050
Shifts in the Cumulative Density Function of Global Population in 2095 28
CLIMATE CHANGE VS.
SOCIOECONOMIC DRIVERS
Methodology & Results
29
Experiments
B1 (RF4.2) B2 (RF5.5) A2 (RF7.7) A1Fi (RF8.8)
Variable Climate2095, B1 Climate2095, B2 Climate2095, A2 Climate2095, A1Fi
Fixed Demand2005 Demand2005 Demand2005 Demand2005
B1 (RF4.2) B2 (RF5.5) A2 (RF7.7) A1Fi (RF8.8)
Fixed Climate2005 Climate2005 Climate2005 Climate2005
Variable Demand2095, 6- Demand2095, 6+ Demand2095, 9+ Demand2095, 14-
Baseline: current demands and current climate conditions in year 2005
The effect of climate change alone
The effect of socioeconomic drivers alone
The effects of climate change and socioeconomic drivers together
B1 (RF4.2) B2 (RF5.5) A2 (RF7.7) A1Fi (RF8.8)
Variable Climate2095, B1 Climate2095, B2 Climate2095, A2 Climate2095, A1Fi
Variable Demand2095, 6- Demand2095, 6+ Demand2095, 9+ Demand2095, 14-
Baseline
Fixed Climate2005
Fixed Demand2005
30
Fixing Socioeconomics &
Changing Climate
B1 (RF2095=4.2 W/m2) B2 (RF2095=5.5 W/m2)
A2 (RF2095=7.7 W/m2) A1Fi (RF2095=8.8 W/m2)
31
B1 (RF2095=4.2 W/m2) B2 (RF2095=5.5 W/m2)
A2 (RF2095=7.7 W/m2) A1Fi (RF2095=8.8 W/m2)
Changing Socioeconomics &
Fixing Climate
32
B1 (RF2095=4.2 W/m2) B2 (RF2095=5.5 W/m2)
A2 (RF2095=7.7 W/m2) A1Fi (RF2095=8.8 W/m2)
Changing Socioeconomics
& Climate
33
Difference from Year 2005
34
Climate Change Vs.
Socioeconomic Drivers
35
Climate Change Vs. Socioeconomic Drivers
Basin Scale
36
Future Research Directions
Allocating water among competing water users
and technology choices (two-way feedback)
Climate change impacts on water demands
Enhance the existing representations of the
global hydrologic model and demand sectors in
GCAM
Accounting for non-renewable water sources,
e.g., desalinated water and non-renewable (fossil)
groundwater
37
QUESTIONS!
38
References
Hejazi, Mohamad I., Jae Edmonds, and Vaibhav Chaturvedi (in press). Global irrigation demand – A
holistic approach, Journal of Irrigation & Drainage Systems Engineering.
Hejazi, Mohamad I., Jae Edmonds, and Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Evan Davies, and Jiyong Eom
(accepted). Scenarios of Global Municipal Water Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century,
Hydrological Sciences Journal.
Davies, Evan G. R., Page Kyle, and James A. Edmonds (in review). An integrated assessment of
global and regional water demands for electricity generation to 2095. Advances in Water Resources.
Kyle, Page, Evan Davies, James J Dooley, Steven J Smith, Leon E Clarke, James A Edmonds, and
Mohamad Hejazi (in review). Influence of climate change mitigation technology on global demands of
water for electricity generation. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control.
Hejazi, Mohamad I., James Edmonds, Leon Clarke, Page Kyle, Evan Davies, Vaibhav Chaturvedi,
Marshall Wise, Pralit Patel, Jiyong Eom, Katherine Calvin, Richard Moss, and Son Kim (in review).
Long-term global water use projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment
modeling framework, Global Environmental Change. Part A, Human and Policy Dimensions.
Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, Mohamad Hejazi, James Edmonds, Leon Clarke, Page Kyle, Evan Davies,
Marshall Wise, and Katherine Calvin. Impact of emission mitigation policies on long term global
agricultural water demand. To be submitted to Climate Policy.
Hejazi, Mohamad I., James Edmonds, Leon Clarke, Page Kyle, Evan Davies, Vaibhav Chaturvedi,
Marshall Wise, Pralit Patel, Jiyong Eom, and Katherine Calvin. Integrated assessment of global water
scarcity over the 21st century: Global water supply and demand under extreme radiative forcing. To be
submitted to Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.
Hejazi, Mohamad I., James Edmonds, Leon Clarke, Page Kyle, Evan Davies, Vaibhav Chaturvedi,
Jiyong Eom, Marshall Wise, Pralit Patel, and Katherine Calvin. Integrated assessment of global water
scarcity over the 21st century: 2- Climate change mitigation policies. To be submitted to Hydrology and
Earth System Sciences. 39