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Water Security in a Challenging World

Water-Energy-Food Security Nexus in the Arab Region

Current Water for Food Situational Analysis in the Arab Region and Expected Changes

due to Dynamic Externalities

Rabi H. Mohtar1*, Amjad T. Assi2, Bassel T. Daher2

1 Biological and Agricultural Engineering Department and Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M

University, College Station, TX 77843-2117, USA, mohtar@tamu.edu, +1 765 4090309. 2 Biological and Agricultural Engineering Department, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-2117,

USA.

Abstract

The chapter will provide a situational analysis of the major stresses on water-food securities in the

Arab Region, as impacted by externalities such as climate change, population growth, and

economic development. The chapter will further explore the uncertainties associated with

predicting the future of these external stresses and will identify management risks associated with

the lack of understanding of the soil water and associated spatial variability of the external stresses.

The chapter will conclude with a vision for an adaptive management approach for addressing the

external stresses on water-food security in the Arab Region. A major cornerstone in this vision is

increasing the socio-economic resilience of local communities through localizing water and food

securities.

1. Introduction

Arab countries face multiple internal and external challenges to manage, sustain, and secure the

three scarce and unevenly distributed natural resources: water, food, and energy (WEF). The

uneven distribution of these resources is a general characteristic of the region, and together

demographic, geographic, political and other, natural constraints, exert burdens on WEF security

plans there. The decision makers in these countries are under continuous pressure to seek possible

solutions to bridge the WEF supply-demand gap. Thus, proposed strategies, are most commonly

reactive rather than preventive, and are usually associated with the uncertainties regarding

sustainability and have various socio-economic, environmental, cultural, and political drawbacks.

According to the World Bank (2007), current management plans for facing the WEF security

challenges in Arab countries are questionable, given the complicated internal and external

dynamics of the region.

In Arab countries, water security is the most critical challenge. The renewable water resources are

the lowest in the world at 1,500 m3/capita/year (WRI 2005). The majority of the water running

through major rivers in the region originate outside of the region, thus exposing it to vulnerabilities

that lead to political unrest, which in turn shakes its fragile WEF security. The Southeast Anatolia

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Development project, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Israeli diversion of the Jordan

River are examples of the vulnerability of WEF systems to externalities in Syria, Iraq, Egypt,

Sudan, Jordan and Palestine, respectively. Another external pressure affecting WEF security in the

Arab region is climate change, which is expected to hit this region the hardest, though with huge

variations among the different countries (Droogers et al., 2012). Climate change is associated with

other social, economic and political dynamics that will shape the future of water-energy-food

security in the region.

The general strategic plan for securing food supply in the Arab region is through food imports

(virtual water trade), predicted to constitute more than 60% of the food basket by 2030 (World

Bank, 2009). Grains form the bulk of this import, providing 30-40% of total caloric intake of an

average person in the region (Larson et al., 2013; Wright and Cafiero, 2011). The decision to rely

on food imports was made under pressure, and led to unintended consequences such as the

degradation of the quality of the primary natural resource, arable soil. The decision also had

significant socio-economic impact on farmers, who comprise a large segment of the Arab society.

It added vulnerability to global markets. Branes (2013) warned against the misuse of the "virtual

water" concept and its application in agricultural lands in Egypt, particularly if adopted without a

clear plan and mitigation measures.

A key solution for facing the variability in challenges is localizing water and food securities. In

this paper, we will shed light on one significant resource "green water", whose use can save water,

food, and energy for many countries in the area. We also want to encourage innovative thinking

through optimized use of natural resources, encourage the benefits to be gained from technological

advances, and stress the value of continuous inclusion of the farmer, the primary steward of this

resource.

2. Situational Analysis of the Internal and External Stresses on Arab Countries' Water-

Food Securities

The water-food security of the Arab world is constrained by several internal and external stresses.

Key among them are high population and economic growth (socio-economic), arid and semi-arid

climate, dependency on external water resources and food supply, climate change, and political

unrest. There is a high variability and uneven distribution of the two main resources for food

production, namely arable land and water. There are generally great disparities in wealth, natural

resources, and economic systems; thus, adaptive strategies for maintaining a sustainable level of

water-food security must vary. This section provides a situational analysis of these internal and

external dynamic stresses and describes how these stresses impact water-food security in the Arab

world. To capture the variability of these stresses among the Arab countries, we categorize the

Arab world into four geographical units:

(1) Arabian Peninsula: Bahrain [BHR], Kuwait [KWT], Oman [OMN], Qatar [QAT], Saudi Arabia

[SAU], United Arab Emirates [UAE], and Yemen [YEM];

(2) Middle East: Iraq [IRQ], Jordan [JOR], Lebanon [LBN], State of Palestine [PSE], and Syria

[SYR];

(3) North-eastern Africa: Comoros [COM], Djibouti [DJI], Egypt [EGY], Somalia [SOM], Sudan

[SDN];

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(4) Maghreb: Algeria [DZA], Libya [LBY], Mauritania [MRT], Morocco [MAR], and Tunisia

[TUN].

2.1. Population growth

In the past three decades, the population in the Arab world has more than doubled. Though fertility

rates have consistently declined, the population rate continues to be high when compared to the

rest of the world (UNDP, 2012). This rapid increase in population makes the Arab world one of

the youngest regions (Brown et al., 2009), a reality that presents a clear opportunity for the Arab

countries: if the right investments were made in human capital and training for the labor market.

Youth represents a major economic asset (Madsen et al., 2007), but it also presents serious

challenges: including the need for adequate infrastructure for education and health care, increased

unemployment, malnutrition, and slow economic growth (UNFPA, 2012). Further, it imposes an

overburdening strain on already limited water resources and arable soil with regard to meeting

growing water-food demands. The population in the Arabian Peninsula is two and a half times

more than it was in 1980 (Fig. 2.1). Projections show that the population in the Arab World as a

whole will reach 692 million by 2050 (Zyadin, 2013). It is projected that North East Afrcia will

maintain the highest population, while the highest percentage of population growth is expected to

take place in the Arabian Peninsula countries. Arab countries across different regions continue to

grow at highly variable rates due to different patterns of fertility and immigration.

Fig. 2.1: The population growth in the Arab world from 1980 to 2014 and the projected population in

2050. (ESA UN, 2012)

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2.2. Economic development

The landscape of economies in the Arab World is characterized by great variability across different

countries (Fig. 2.2). In 2013, Qatar recorded the highest GDP per capita in the world (USD

102,100) while Somalia bottomed the global list with USD 600 (CIA, 2014). Mainly catalyzed by

a combination of high oil and gas returns and low local population, the Arabian Peninsula enjoys

a higher GDP per capita compared to the other regions. The sectors that contribute to the GDP

across countries in the Arab World also highly vary: some have significant agricultural activity,

while others solely rely on industry and services. In 2012, for example, 14% of Egypt’s GDP came

from agriculture, while 40% and 46% came from industry and services respectively. The value

added to GDP from agriculture, industry, and services for the same year was 7%, 19%, 73% for

Lebanon, 1%, 60%, 39% for UAE. (World Bank, 2014). Economic growth continues to be slow

in the Arab world, and for different reasons in different locations. This variability mainly results

from the lack of a stable macroeconomic environment, inadequate human capital, and excessive

reliance on public investment (World Bank, 2004; Xavier et al., 2002). Youth unemployment is

nearly double that of the global rate and continues to grow due to the rigid labor market and its

inefficiencies (WEF 2013; WEF 2014). A different set of interventions are needed to curb existing

trends across different countries.

Fig. 1.2: The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (GDPPP)

in year 2013 for countries in the Arab World (World Bank, 2014)

2.4. Water Availability and External Water Resources Dependency

The Arab world is considered to be one of the most water-scarce regions in the world. This scarcity

has several dimensions.

(1) The physical "hydrological" scarcity due to the limited internal renewable water resources,

which seems to become more severe with the climate change.

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(2) The high dependence on the external renewable water resources not only from both other

Arab countries and from non-Arab countries. Currently, the external renewable water

resources of Egypt, Sudan, Iraq from non-Arab countries are 97%, 89%, and 61% of their

total renewable water resources, respectively (see Fig. 2.3).

(3) The socio-economic dynamics represented by the sharp increase in population, shift in life

styles, and economic growth. For example, economic growth in Qatar and United Arab

Emirates caused a population growth of 9 times more than it was three decades ago,

imposing substantial strain on already scarce water resources. Such a socio-economic

situation has never been experienced in any region except in the Arabian Peninsula.

Moreover, this region is classified as an absolute water scarcity region (i.e. < 500

m3/capita/yr) according to the physical water stress classification of Falkenmark, et al.

(1989) (Fig 2.3).

(4) The depletion of the vulnerable water resources to bridge the growing supply-demand gap.

(5) The deterioration of water and land resource quality, due to exposure to low-quality

domestic and industrial wastewater and agricultural return flow.

Arab countries can be categorized into three groups based on the sources and availability of water

to meet the current demand: (1) renewable surface water-based (Egypt and Sudan); (2) renewable

surface and groundwater-based (Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Morocco, Comoros, Mauritania); (3)

renewable and non-renewable groundwater-based (Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Oman,

Jordan, and Palestine); (4) mainly non-renewable groundwater-based (Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab

Emirates, and Yemen).

The internal renewable water resource from rainfall, physical water scarcity, is the lowest in the

Arab world. Each of the Arabian Peninsula countries receives less than 500 m3/capita/yr, and,

except for Oman, each has already exceeded their renewable water resources. In the Middle East,

only Iraq and Lebanon have a better water quota (between 500-1000 m3/capita/yr), while Jordan,

Palestine and Syria are still categorized as absolute physical water scarcity countries. Except

Comoros, all the North East Africa countries are also classified as absolute physical water scarcity

countries. The same classification applies for all Maghreb countries except Morocco, still

considered to be a water-scarce country (Fig.2.3). One should keep in mind that food security is

not only a function of water availability but also of land fertility and climate conditions. The

considerable variability of land fertility and climate conditions among these countries is an

important characteristic of the entire region and must be considered in any water-food security

plans.

The Middle East region of the Arab World is characterized by political instability. Water security

and political instability are interconnected. All of the countries in the Middle East share trans-

boundary water bodies among themselves and with other, non-Arab countries. Most of the 60%

renewable water resources in Iraq and Syria originate in Turkey and flow through Euphrates-Tigris

basin. Given the Turkish water-food-energy security plans for the Southeast Anatolia

Development project, it is to be expected that the growing water demand in Iraq and Syria will not

be easily obtained through these rivers. Nor is the situation any better in other parts of this region.

More than 66% of the flowing water in the Jordan River is extracted by Israel, while only 18%,

12%, <1%, and 0% is utilized by Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine, respectively. As for the

Nile River basin, around 97% of the total renewable water resources of Egypt and 89% of those in

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Sudan, flow through the Nile River. Thus, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is of great

concerns to both countries. In this part of world, water policy plays a pivotal role in shaping the

future of water-food security.

Fig. 2.2: The internal and external renewable water resources in the Arab world. (AQUASTAT-

FAO database).

2.5. Climate change

According to many global and local climate change models, the Arab world will receive less

precipitation and an associated increase in temperature. The spatial and temporal variations in

these two climate characteristics are high, not only among the countries, but also within a given

country. The uncertainties in the predicted values of various climate change models are very high.

A study by the World Bank, Immerzeel et al. (2011), assessed the future water supply-demand

under various climate change and socio-economic scenarios. It was found that climate change will

be responsible for 16% of the water shortage in the region by 2050. Whereas, Drooger et al. (2012)

found that 22% of the water shortage in the region will be due to climate change and 78% due to

the socio-economic dynamics by 2050.

In the study of Immerzeel et al. (2011), one can recognize the high variation in projected

precipitation and actual evapotranspiration based on the results of 9 different Global Climate

Models (GCMs). With regard to precipitation, the prediction intervals were [-21%, 35%] in the

Arabian Peninsula with a median value of 2.1%; [-19%, 7%] in the Middle East with a median

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ERWR [2014] IRWR [2014]

Absolute Water Scarcity Water Scarcity

Water Stress Water Vulnerable

Percent of External RWR from Total RWR

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value of -6.4%; [-11%, 22%] in Egypt and Djibouti of the North-east Africa region with a median

value of 1.5%; and finally [-19%, 7%] in Maghreb with a median value of -7.3%. Only 5 countries

are expected to have more precipitation by 2050, three of these are in the Arabian Peninsula: Oman,

United Arab Emirates, and Yemen (Fig. 2.4). Rainfall intensity brings another uncertainty in the

future of water-food security in the region. Changes in the climate are expected to accelerate the

hydrological cycle, thus increasing the probability of flooding and desertification: both of which

impose substantial strain on the water-food scarcity in the region.

The increase in temperature also increases water demand, mainly from the agricultural sector, by

increasing evapotranspiration. Evapotranspiration in the Arab World is expected to increase by

1% - 3.6% by 2050. The greatest will be in the Middle East, with a median value of 3.1% (Fig.

2.4).

Fig. 2.4. The median precipitation and reference evapotranspiration anomalies of 9 GCMs as a

percentage comparing the [2040-2050] scenarios with respect to current situation [2000-2009].

Climate change is considered to pose a major threat to water-food security in the region and is

expected to be responsible for around 20% of the supply-demand gap by 2050. The uncertainty in

the predicted values are very high and the temporal domain of the occurrence of such extreme

events is not clear. Severe droughts can hit at any time, and would aggravate socio-economic and

political instability in the region.

-15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0

Arabian PeninsulaBHRKWT

OMNQATSAUUAEYEM

Middle EastIRQJORLBNPSESYR

NE AfricaDJI

EGYMaghreb

DZALBY

MARTUN

Percentage [%]

Median Precipitation and Reference Evapotranspiration Anomalies of the 9

GCMs as a percentage:[2040-2050] with respect to [2000-2009]

Median Precipitation Anomalies

Median Reference

Evapotranspiration Anomalies

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2.6. Global food prices and their implications on Arab countries

The Arab world is well-known for dependence on cereals in its diet. About 30-40% of total calories

of an average person in the region comes from wheat. Thus, it is not surprising that more than 29%

of the global wheat export between 2008 and 2010 was to the region (Larson, 2013). Several Arab

countries attempted to achieve self-sufficiency, at least in wheat production. For example, in 1984

Saudi Arabia subsidized wheat production, becoming a net exporter of wheat in less than 10 years.

However, this success was costly and resulted in depleting valuable groundwater resources and

affecting diversity of agricultural product in the kingdom (Sowers et al., 2010). Currently, the plans

are to cease wheat production in Saudi Arabia and to either import cereals or secure access to

arable land in other countries (mainly in Africa and Asia) sufficient to meet the increasing demand

for cereals.

Grain import (virtual water trade) seems to offer an easy solution to bridging the unmet water and

food demand in these countries. Due to the socio-economic, hydrological and climate change

constraints, the tendency is toward boosting food imports up to 64% by 2030 (World Bank, 2009).

Such a plan is associated with many risks: some large grain exporters are converting their product

into ethanol and it is expected that by 2050, 182 million tons of cereals will become bio-fuel,

compared to only 65 million tons in 2005 (Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012). This will impact

both global food prices, and the local markets in the Arab world, where the poor and vulnerable

spend 30-70% of their income on food. On average, local food markets showed 5-10% variation

as a response to the global market prices in the period 2006-2011. The highest variation was

observed in Egypt, Yemen, Iraq, and Palestine (Larson, 2013). The poor people, and the poor

countries are least resilient to changes in the food prices, and these represent a quarter of the

population in the region. It is not only the vulnerable people, but also the precious land that could

suffer from the side effects of the increased food imports. Barnes (2013) addressed the drawbacks

of the Egyptian policy to decrease the area of water-intensive rice cultivation and increase rice

imports, noting that it was the land and the farmer who received the shock.

3. Uncertainties Associated with the External Stresses

It is clear that socio-economics, politics and climate change will play an influential role in shaping

the future of food and water security in the Arab World. However, substantial uncertainties are

associated with these projections. The uncertainties increase the vulnerability of the regions’

inhabitants and reduce the resilience of water-food security adaptive strategies. In the last decade,

rapid population growth in Arab Peninsula resulted from the greatly increased demand in the labor

market; three wars in Iraq and Syria caused significant increase in the population of Jordan and

Lebanon in a very short time. It is challenging for any adaptive plan to accommodate such socio-

economic and political dynamics in such a short time frame. Given that the socio-economic factor

is anticipated to be responsible for about 80% of the unmet demand by 2050, it is critical that water

strategies, in the face of such dynamics, focus on local-scale water supply projects and technical

solutions. These would enforce the resilience of water-food security systems that require the

engagement of local societal factors. Moreover, global biofuel production is expected to double

by 2050 and result in a shortage of (or increased competition/demand for) cereals. There is no

guarantee about the future production of bio-fuel, cereals production for the food market, and their

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prices. These uncertainties are alarming for Arab world countries that plan to increase food

imports, mainly of grains.

Several studies using different GCMs have been conducted to predict future climate changes. Two

common results can be concluded from these studies: (1) in average climatic scenarios, climate

change will be responsible for about 20% of the water supply-demand gap by 2050, and (2) there

is high variation among the different models. For example in the Immerzeel et al. (2011) study,

the precipitation anomalies, as a percentage in the Arab World, are predicted to be within the

interval [-18%, 18%] with a median value of -2.1%. The questions then become: when can we

expect the worst case scenario? Are we ready for it? Can our large-scale projects and plans cope

with it? All that we observe from recent drought and flood events tell us we are not ready yet. One

way for mitigating such risks is to develop reliable local climate predictions. Under these

uncertainties, water experts and decision makers should work on creating innovative solutions by

understanding the local environmental system, and engaging the societal actors.

4. Toward Innovative Solutions for a Better Future of Water-Food Security in the

Arab Region

Agriculture is considered to be a main constituent of national security and social identity in many

countries. Agriculture not only depends heavily on water, but also on land: both of which are

threatened by climate change. Furthermore, considerable amounts of energy are embedded within

different stages of food production. The agricultural sector embeds within it vast resources and is

complex in terms of its attributes and its value to society. Agriculture consumes the most water in

a region classified as the most water-scarce in the world. The agricultural sector is also the main

source of income for the most vulnerable parts of the society in the Arab Region. An important

step towards identifying ways to encourage agricultural resilience within the Arab countries is to

investigate the potential of local resources and their ability to withstand the stresses facing these

resource systems.

Good management of this sector demands a holistic, yet localized, understanding of the inter-

linkages among different resources (water, energy, soil, land), externalities (economics, population

and demographics, politics, climate), and involved stakeholders (governments, farmers, investors,

civil society). No single water-food security strategy could be generalized over the entire region

due to the enormous variability in resource availability, external factors and range of involved

stakeholders. This variability is highly pronounced among different countries, and even among

different sub-regions in the same country. Therefore, localized adaptation strategies need to be

developed, based on these elements. Developing local-specific plans will contribute to reducing

the vulnerabilities of local societies to the stresses that face resource systems. It will also help

improve levels of resilience of natural and socio-economic systems as they face external stresses

such as climate change.

A 199m3/yr water shortage is expected by year 2050 (Droogers, 2012) in the MENA region. With

the increase in the water shortage, supplying domestic households from fresh water resources will

take priority over agriculture and will create a challenge for agriculture experts and decision

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makers to meet market needs. This could lead to reduction in local agricultural production and to

bridging shortfalls in food demand through imports, while accepting associated risks and

vulnerabilities. Alternatively, localized adaptation scenarios could be developed to maintain a

certain level of local food production. Immerzeel et al. (2011) discusses 9 adaption scenarios to

manage the unmet water demand. The conclusion of the study favors improved agriculture

practices, such as heat and salt tolerant crop varieties. It also favors desalination as part of an

efficient adaptation strategy for water resources. This conclusion is in alignment with the need to

localize food production, farming systems, and adaption plans, in order to increase resilience of

the agricultural system as it faces a wide array of dynamic stresses. Moreover, Verner et al. (2013)

concluded that farmers and rural inhabitants are key players in increasing the resilience of the

agricultural sector’s response to climate change. They are at the front-line of efforts to protect their

source of income in a non-stationary world. The study highlighted the importance of regular, on-

farm agricultural experiments to identify, evaluate, and manage the changes in local production

systems rather than adopt ‘one-size-fits-all’ solutions.

Arab countries currently meet a significant portion of their food market needs through import.

Amounts and types of food import vary from one place to another, depending on resource

availabilities and enabling conditions. Agricultural trade plays an important role in today’s global

economy, and will continue to be a major contributor in supplying markets worldwide.

Nevertheless, the fact remains that many potentials for improving levels of local food production

in the area are under tapped or yet to be developed. The Arabian Peninsula is rich with energy

resources (renewable "solar" as well as non-renewable “fossil”) yet, very poor in fresh water and

fertile soil. Technology is advancing rapidly, and it is only a matter of time before efficiency and

storage issues are overcome for solar energy. Such a clean, cheap, and renewable source of energy

can bring agricultural life to the area.

Nonetheless, unique localized farming systems need to be adopted where soil-water-atmosphere

can be monitored and controlled. Sahara Forest Project (http://saharaforestproject.com/) launched

as a pilot project in Qatar, and now under construction in Jordan, provides case studies for localized

farming systems in which technologies can be combined and used to alleviate the impact of severe

environmental externalities such as limited water resources, limited arable soil, and year round very

high temperatures.

Another under-appreciated asset in the region is green water, defined by Wikipedia as 'rainwater

stored in the soil as soil moisture’. This water needs to be better quantified and managed. It

maintains, determines, and even improves the productivity and functionality of the soil-water-

atmosphere continuum. Once quantified and managed, it can reduce soil erosion, maintain soil

fertility, and most importantly, maintain the equilibrium between the soil-water-plant system and

its surrounding climate. Such a function will be essential to face the stresses associated with

climate change. Fig. 4.1 shows the amounts of available blue and green water in Maghreb countries

(Schuol et al., 2008). The data shows that blue water comprises only 4% of the renewable water

resources, while green water constitutes the remaining 96%. A great deal of research, human

capacity, and management must be channeled into developing technical solutions to better utilize

the 4% (blue water), but the 96% remains under studied: 91% of green water flow,

evapotranspiration, and 5% of green water is stored in the soil profile. Fig. 4.2 shows the portion

of precipitation counted as ‘internal renewable water resources’ across countries in the Arab world.

Only 8 of the 22 countries show that precipitation contributes to more than 10% of blue water.

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Currently, the simplified representation of the soil-water medium limits proper accounting and

management of this precious but under-appreciated water. Braudeau and Mohtar (2014) present a

new paradigm that has the capability to quantify green water as it exists in the organized soil-water

system, with thermodynamic equilibrium and its surrounding climate (temperature, humidity, and

pressure). Once quantified, it can be better managed. Better accounting and utilization of green

water offers a promising leap toward better adaptation to climate change challenges facing food

supply chains.

Fig. 4.1. The green and blue water portions from the total precipitation (Schuol et al., 2008)

Algeria Libya Morocco Tunisia Mauritania

Precipitation 198.6 76.6 113.6 44.7 89.9

Green Water Flow 182.1 73.1 100.3 38.5 83.0

Greenwater Storage 11.3 3.1 7.5 3.3 1.5

Blue Water 5.2 0.4 5.7 2.9 5.4

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Fig. 4.2. The amount of rainwater accounted as Internal Renewable Water Resources.

(AQUASTAT-FAO database).

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

The Arab World faces water and food security challenges with a set of non-stationary internal and

external pressures. Arid and semi-arid climates, recurring water stresses, high population growth

rates, frequent political unrest, and climate change are characteristic of the challenges that face the

region. The high level of variability in those challenges, whether among different geographic

groups (Arabian Peninsula, Middle East, North-east Africa, and Maghreb), different countries

within a group, or among different areas within a single country, is another characteristic of the

challenges in the region. This makes it difficult to adopt one-size-fits-all adaptive strategies.

Uncertainty of future projections for those challenges adds to the complexity of prescribing proper

strategies that could respond to possible scenarios.

Under predictions of high uncertainty and variability of future stresses, large-scale technical

solutions cannot provide high levels of resilience, and would threaten the livelihood of

communities across the region. Alternatively, localizing adaptive strategies, with pivotal

participation of local communities, increases the resilience of water-food security in the face of

uncertain stresses. Moreover, lessons learned at the farm level, would contribute to increasing the

ability of framers and farming systems to maintain a sustainable level of food security. Innovative

thinking is needed to understand the potential of available and under tapped resources, and to better

utilize them at the local scale, and better bridge the water-food supply-demand gap. This does not

eliminate the role of food imports, rain water harvesting systems, and existing hydraulic structures

in contributing to bridge the gap, but would come with higher risks and lower levels of resilience.

Localizing the farming system, once adopted as a strategy moving forward, would increase the

overall resilience of the water-food systems. Such a strategy should be inclusive and must account

26

04

72 2 2

30

37

7

70

32

15

2

60

64 3

1

85

1 0

19

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Ara

bia

n P

en

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la

BH

R

KW

T

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How Much Rainwater Accounted as Internal Renewable Water Resources

IRWR [2015] Precipitation[Long term average] Percent of IRW from Precipitation

13

for the natural, social, economic, and technical environments after which local solutions are

prescribed and geared toward optimizing, rather than maximizing, the use of water, soil, plant and

atmosphere. The proposed approach is a socio-techno-environmental approach as opposed to a

solely technical one.

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