Water, sustainability and climate for south Florida

Presented at the LTER All Scientists Meeting, Miami, March 11, 2013

Objectives

1) Develop a hydro-economic optimization model for south Florida

2) Link value of ES to EF and incorporate results into optimization model

3) Investigate socio-ecological trade-offs of management schemes needed to increase the resilience of water resources under different scenarios of climate, SLR, LULC, and population change

4) Utilize stakeholder participation to improve understanding of cognitive and perceptual biases in risk assessment and decision-making

5) Develop recommendations for adaptive water management plans which foster sustained public support in south Florida

• Regional economic valuation of urban, agricultural, ecosystem, and industrial water use

• Economic valuation of ecosystem services (expanded from WSC Category 1)

• Surveys of stakeholder risk perception and preferences

• Integrating stakeholder preferences into scenario-driven, regional hydro-economic optimization

• Decision-modeling of group interactions in experimental tradeoff negotiations

General Approach

General Approach

Similar efforts at this scale

Hydro-economic modeling Linked-node optimization model

• Optimization according to ecol & econ benefit/cost functions and decision criteria, such as “expected value” or “expected regret”

• Initial focus on regional level trade-offs under different optimization schemes and current infrastructure

• Long term robustness of optimization schemes to be tested under different scenarios using a decision-tree approach

Hydro-economic modeling Linked-node optimization model

• Nodes will represent macro-scale properties of the SoFl system

• For each node: flow-response function(s)-- costs or penalty for missing certain that include a target water allocation target

• Cost functions: both ecological and economic parameters (e.g. ecological costs associated with low flows; economic costs associated with exceeding flood risks)

• Value of ecosystem services to be included in optimization targets

Penalty Function: EvergladesWatkins, D., Kirby, K., and Punnett, R. (2004). ”Water for the Everglades: Application of the South Florida Systems Analysis Model.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 130(5), 359–366.doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:5(359)

Penalty Function: Water SupplyWatkins, D., Kirby, K., and Punnett, R. (2004). ”Water for the Everglades: Application of the South Florida Systems Analysis Model.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 130(5), 359–366.doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:5(359)

Scenario generation

Geodesign Inc.

Resilience of regional water supply optimization schemes will be tested under different scenarios of climate, land use change, population growth (water demands), SLR, and economic setting

• Initial effort will be based on integrating existing scenario information (e.g. MIT LULC scenarios, SFWMD, Weisskoff 2011)

• Later work will utilize new IPCC climate forecasts and stakeholder-driven preferences for adaptive responses to climate-related stressors

Hypothesis:Information type and format influences risk perception and preferences for future management options and adaptive responses to climate change

Complex geo-visualization of scenario outcomes will be used in stakeholder risk assessment

Behavioral decision analyses

How do economic dimensions of trade-offs influence stakeholder preferences?

Ecosystem Valuation Work for the Project

Ecosystem Valuation :

• Based on Flow-Responses Rates

• Assess values of changes in ES, such as fish and carbon

• Work closely with fish and carbon groups

• Provide ES valuation parameters to modeling group

Ecosystem Valuation Group of the Project

Ecosystem Valuation :

• Will draw from previous valuation studies: our own, MARES, Everglades Foundation-support ed studies

• See next slides on carbon and fishery valuation studies

Selection of Carbon Prices based on Valuation Methodologies

Meenakshi Jerath, Mahadev Bhat, Victor Rivera-Monroy, Edward Castañeda,-Moya, Marc Simard, and Robert Twilley., 2013. An Economic Valuation of Carbon Sequestration in the Mangroves Forests of the Florida Everglades.” Ecological Economics (under preparation)

Economic Value of Carbon in the ENP Mangroves ($/ha)

Valuation Methodology

Source Cost of Carbon ($/tC)U.S. 2010 dollars

Value of ENP Mangroves ($/ha)

Market Price RGGI, 20107 50,008

Social Cost of Carbon

U.S. Government Interagency Report, 2010 86 614,384

Example study: the value of recreational benefits ofImproved coral reef protection

Contingent Behavior Modeling

Florida Keys study (Bhat, 2003)

T1

Thanks………