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2016 CFA Institute Research Challenge: San Diego
San Diego State University
Viktoriya DeminaOlga Grigorchuk
Paul LambRyan NeumannHongliao Xiong
Executive Summary – “Expensive Slow-Grower”
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Recommendation: Sell
2/19/2016 Closing Price: $107.79
12-Month Price Target: $87
Downside Potential: 19%
2/16/2
011
4/6/20
11
5/25/2
011
7/13/2
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8/31/2
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10/19
/2011
12/7/
2011
1/25/2
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3/14/2
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5/2/20
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6/20/2
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8/8/20
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9/26/2
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11/14
/2012
1/2/20
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2/20/2
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4/10/2
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5/29/2
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7/17/2
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9/4/20
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10/23
/2013
12/11
/2013
1/29/2
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3/19/2
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5/7/20
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6/25/2
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8/13/2
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10/1/
2014
11/19
/2014
1/7/20
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2/25/2
015
4/15/2
015
6/3/20
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7/22/2
015
9/9/20
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10/28
/2015
12/16
/2015
2/3/20
1630
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Pric
e / S
hare
($)
Target Price : $87
Current Price : 107
2
• Global Marketing Company
• Two product segmentsoMaintenance Products oHomecare Products
The Ame
ri-cas50%
EMEA36%
Asia-
Pa-cific14%
Business Overview
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation3
Competitive Positioning
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
• Americas SegmentoStrong competitive positioningoMature market
• EMEA and Asia-PacificoGrowth opportunities/challenges
Buyer Power
Supplier Power
New EntrantsSubstitute Products
Competitive Rivalry
012345
0 = No Threat1 = Minimal Threat 2 = Low Threat3 = Moderate Threat4 = Significant Threat5 = High Threat
4
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
170 177 181 181 187 192 196 199 201 203
125 117 136 151 137 130 139 149 158 16641 49
5251 54 57
6472 80 88
36 35 40 44 45 50 53 56 58 61
Americas EMEA Asia-Pacific Net income
Mill
ions
of U
S D
olla
rs
Financial Analysis – Revenue Projections
5
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E -
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Dividends + Repurchases Net Income Payout ratio
Mill
ions
of $
Mod
ified
Pay
out %
of N
.I.
Financial Analysis – Modified Payout Ratio
6
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Financial Analysis – ROE
• Inflated ROE• Cash trapped overseasThree Step DuPont Analysis
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020ENet Profit Margin 10.83% 10.35% 10.80% 11.42% 11.85% 13.21% 13.25% 13.29% 13.36% 13.46%
Asset TO 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.14 1.10 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.00
Financial Lev 1.43 1.50 1.71 1.92 2.10 2.27 2.32 2.16 2.04 1.93ROE 18.32% 18.35% 21.82% 25.07% 27.38% 32.60% 32.88% 30.23% 27.98% 26.06%
7
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Valuation – Summary
$87
DCF$73.93
DCF$86.17
DDM$100.7
7
8
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
WACC AnalysisRisk Free Rate 2.00%S&P 500 Adjusted Beta 0.815Market Risk Premium 7.50%Cost Of Equity 8.11%Interest Expense $ 1,205,000 Debt Outstanding $ 108,000,000 Pre Tax Cost of Debt 1.12%Marginal Tax Rate 0.298After Tax Cost of Debt 0.79%Equity Financing 92.17%Debt Financing 7.83%WACC 7.54%
Valuation – WACC Analysis
9
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Terminal Value Methodology Gordon Growth
Terminal Ratio
(+) Sum of PVs (Fair Value) 1133.67 1311.40(-) Net Debt 108.00 108.00(+) Excess Cash 48.60 48.60(=) Equity Value 1074.27 1252.00(/) Diluted Shares Outstanding 14.53 14.53(=) Share Price $73.93 $86.17Feb 19, 2016 Price $107.79Estimated Upside -31.4% -20.1%
Assumptions
• 2.5% Terminal Growth Rate
• 19.4x Terminal Multiple
• 2020 EBITDA = $90M
Valuation – Discounted Cash Flows
10
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Valuation – DCF Sensitivity
Sensitivity Analysis - Terminal EBITDA Multiple EV/EBITDA 13.4 15.4 17.4 19.4 21.4 23.4 25.4
Discount Rate
(WACC)
4.5% $
71.33 $
81.56 $
91.79
$102.02 $112.25
$122.48
$132.71
5.5% $
68.41 $
78.21 $
88.01 $
97.81
$107.61 $117.41
$127.22
6.5% $
65.63 $
75.03 $
84.42 $
93.82
$103.21 $112.60
$122.00
7.5% $
63.00 $
72.01 $
81.01 $
90.02 $
99.03
$108.04 $117.04
8.5% $
60.49 $
69.13 $
77.77 $
86.41 $
95.05
$103.69 $112.33
9.5% $ 58.11 $
66.40 $
74.69 $
82.98 $
91.27 $
99.56
$107.85
10.5% $
55.84 $
63.80 $
71.76 $
79.72 $
87.68 $
95.64
$103.59
Sensitivity Analysis - Perpetuity Growth Terminal Growth Rate 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25%
Discount Rate
(WACC)
4.5% $142.00
$155.30
$171.56
$191.89
$218.03
$252.88
$301.66
5.5% $103.08
$109.82 $117.60
$126.68
$137.40
$150.27
$166.00
6.5% $ 80.57
$ 84.57
$ 89.05
$ 94.08
$ 99.79
$106.31 $113.84
7.5% $ 65.90
$ 68.51
$ 71.38
$ 74.54
$ 78.03
$ 81.90
$ 86.24
8.5% $ 55.58
$ 57.41
$ 59.38
$ 61.52
$ 63.85
$ 66.38
$ 69.16
9.5% $ 47.93
$ 49.27
$ 50.70
$ 52.23
$ 53.87
$ 55.64
$ 57.55
10.5% $ 42.04
$ 43.05
$ 44.13
$ 45.27
$ 46.48
$ 47.77
$ 49.16
11
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Valuation – Modified Dividend Discount Model
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Dividends + Repurchases 59.63 58.07 50.48 62.96 51.98 60.05 31.73 33.40 35.00 36.58
Net Income 36.43 35.49 39.81 43.75 44.81 50.09 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97
Payout ratio 164% 164% 127% 144% 116% 120% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Payout/share 3.51 3.62 3.23 4.16 3.55 4.23 2.23 2.35 2.46 3.35
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Terminal
Dividends + Repurchases 4.23 2.23 2.35 2.46 3.35 121.95
PV 3.93 1.93 1.89 93.02
Sum (Value/Share) 100.77
12
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Strengthening Dollar
Counterfeit Reproductions and
CompetitionIncrease in Oil Prices
Government Regulations and
Political InstabilityAttracting/Retaining Quality Employees
Like
lihoo
d
Low
Med
ium
Hig
h
Low Medium HighImpact
Investment Risks
13
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-1675
80
85
90
95
100
105
Date
Inde
x (M
ar 1
973=
100)
Trade Weighted US Dollar Index: Major Currencies
Investment Risks – Stronger US Dollar
14
Source: Nasdaq.com
Investment Risks – Price of Oil
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation15
• Unsustainable Payout Ratios
• Low Growth
• Intrinsic Values < Market Value
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Recommendation
Recommendation: Sell
2/19/2016 Closing Price: $107.79
12-Month Price Target: $87
Downside Potential: 19%
16
“You only need two things in life: Duct Tape and WD-40. If it moves and shouldn’t, use Duct
Tape, if it doesn’t move and should, use WD-40.”
Thank you for your attention
17
1. Cover Page2. Executive Summary3. Business Overview4. Competitive Positioning5. Revenue Projections6. Modified Payout Ratio7. ROE8. Valuation Summary9. WACC Analysis10. DCF Analysis11. DCF Sensitivity12. Modified DDM13. Investment Risks14. Exchange Rates15. Crude Prices
Appendices – Index16. Recommendation17. Questions18. Appendix Index19. Income Statement20. Common Size I.S.21. Revenue by Geography22. Revenue by Product23. Balance Sheet24. Balance Sheet POS25. Cash Flows26. Cash Flows POS27. Schedules28. Beta Calculation29. Treasury Method30. WACC Sensitivity
18
31. DCF Calculations32. NWC Calculations33. DCF Sensitivity (perp)34. DCF Sensitivity (EVx)35. Historical Multiples36. Multiples Comps37. Comparables38. DDM39. Demand Drivers40. Suppliers41. Counterfeiting42. Selected Ratios43. Ratios44. Ratios (cont.)45. ROE Reversal
46. Solvency47. Strategies48. Brands49. Brands50. Shareholders51. Can Costs52. Performance
Appendices – Income Statement($ In Millions )As of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020ENet sales 336.41 342.78 368.55 383.00 378.15 379.18 399.05 418.97 436.74 453.05 Sales Growth 1.9% 7.5% 3.9% -1.3% 0.3% 5.2% 5.0% 4.2% 3.7%Cost of products sold 168.30 174.30 179.39 184.14 177.97 170.63 179.57 188.54 196.53 203.87Gross profit (loss) 168.11 168.48 189.16 198.85 200.18 208.55 219.48 230.43 240.20 249.18 Margin 50.0% 49.2% 51.3% 51.9% 52.9% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0%Selling, general & administrative expense 87.31 88.92 104.38 108.58 108.87 108.07 113.73 119.41 124.47 129.12 % of Sales 25.95% 25.94% 28.32% 28.35% 28.79% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5%Advertising & sales promotion expense 25.13 25.70 24.81 23.92 22.88 24.65 25.94 27.23 28.39 29.45 % of Sales 7.47% 7.50% 6.73% 6.25% 6.05% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%Amortization of definite-lived intangible assets 1.54 2.13 2.26 2.62 3.04 3.03 3.02 3.02 2.76 2.26 % of Sales 0.46% 0.62% 0.61% 0.68% 0.80% 0.80% 0.76% 0.72% 0.63% 0.50%Impairment of definite-lived intangible assets 1.08Total operating expenses 113.98 116.75 132.53 135.12 134.79 135.74 142.69 149.66 155.62 160.83Income (loss) from operations 54.13 51.73 56.64 63.74 65.39 72.81 76.79 80.77 84.59 88.35 Operating Margin 16.1% 15.1% 15.4% 16.6% 17.3% 19.2% 19.2% 19.3% 19.4% 19.5%Interest income 0.23 0.26 0.51 0.60 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56Interest expense 1.08 0.73 0.69 1.00 1.21 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 Interest Expense Increase 0.60 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00Other income (expense), net 0.25 -0.35 0.42 -0.37 -1.66Income (loss) before income taxes - US 37.33 36.67 36.30 41.54 38.04Income (loss) before income taxes - foreign 16.20 14.25 20.57 21.42 25.07Income (loss) before income taxes 53.53 50.91 56.87 62.96 63.11 71.56 75.55 79.53 83.34 87.11 Pretax Margin 15.91% 14.85% 15.43% 16.44% 16.69% 18.87% 18.93% 18.98% 19.08% 19.23%Income Tax Rate 31.9% 30.3% 30.0% 30.5% 29.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%Provision for income taxes 17.10 15.43 17.05 19.21 18.30 21.47 22.66 23.86 25.00 26.13Net income (loss) 36.43 35.49 39.81 43.75 44.81 50.09 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97 Income Growth -2.60% 12.20% 9.88% 2.43% 11.80% 5.57% 5.27% 4.79% 4.51% Income Margin 10.83% 10.35% 10.80% 11.42% 11.85% 13.21% 13.25% 13.29% 13.36% 13.46%Less: N.I. (loss) allocated to participating securities - - - - 0.27N.I. (loss) available to common shareholders - - - - 44.54Weighted average shares outstanding - basic 16.80 15.91 15.52 15.07 14.58 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14Weighted average shares outstanding - diluted 16.98 16.05 15.62 15.15 14.65 14.21 14.21 14.21 14.21 14.21Net earnings (loss) per share-basic 2.168243766 2.22 2.55 2.89 3.05 3.54 3.74 3.94 4.13 4.31Net earnings (loss) per share-diluted 2.14 2.2 2.54 2.87 3.04 3.53 3.72 3.92 4.11 4.29 EPS Growth 2.80% 15.45% 12.99% 5.92% 15.97% 5.56% 5.27% 4.79% 4.51%Dividends per share 1.08 1.14 1.22 1.33 1.48 1.77 2.24 2.36 2.48 2.59 Dividends/Share Growth 5.56% 7.02% 9.02% 11.28% 16.30% 26.72% 5.27% 4.79% 4.51%Total number of employees 334 347 369 395 433
Historical Income Statement Projected Income Statement
See Rev Breakdown (next slide)
Model to 55% Gross Margin
% of Sales
Q1 Conference Call
10K Report
Source: Company Data & Team Estimates
19
Appendices – Common Size I.S.
20
($ In Millions ) Historical Income Statement Common Size Projected Income Statement Common SizeAs of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020ENet sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%Cost of products sold 50.03% 50.85% 48.67% 48.08% 47.06% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00%Gross profit (loss) 49.97% 49.15% 51.33% 51.92% 52.94% 55.00% 55.00% 55.00% 55.00% 55.00%Selling, general & administrative expense 25.95% 25.94% 28.32% 28.35% 28.79% 28.50% 28.50% 28.50% 28.50% 28.50%Advertising & sales promotion expense 7.47% 7.50% 6.73% 6.25% 6.05% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50%Amortization of definite-lived intangible assets 0.46% 0.62% 0.61% 0.68% 0.80% 0.80% 0.77% 0.74% 0.66% 0.52%Impairment of definite-lived intangible assets 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Total operating expenses 33.88% 34.06% 35.96% 35.28% 35.64% 35.80% 35.77% 35.74% 35.66% 35.52%Income (loss) from operations 16.09% 15.09% 15.37% 16.64% 17.29% 19.20% 19.23% 19.26% 19.34% 19.48%Interest income 0.07% 0.08% 0.14% 0.16% 0.15% 0.15% 0.14% 0.14% 0.13% 0.13%Interest expense 0.32% 0.21% 0.19% 0.26% 0.32% 0.48% 0.54% 0.52% 0.50% 0.49%Other income (expense), net 0.07% -0.10% 0.11% -0.10% -0.44% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Income (loss) before income taxes - US 11.10% 10.70% 9.85% 10.85% 10.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Income (loss) before income taxes - foreign 4.82% 4.16% 5.58% 5.59% 6.63% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Income (loss) before income taxes 15.91% 14.85% 15.43% 16.44% 16.69% 18.86% 18.83% 18.88% 18.98% 19.12%Provision for income taxes 5.08% 4.50% 4.63% 5.02% 4.84% 5.66% 5.65% 5.66% 5.69% 5.74%Net income (loss) 10.83% 10.35% 10.80% 11.42% 11.85% 13.21% 13.18% 13.21% 13.28% 13.38%
Appendices – Revenue Breakdown
Historical % of Sales by Geographic Segment 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 AVG 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020EAmericas 50.51% 51.75% 48.98% 47.21% 49.54% 49.60% 50.63% 49.07% 47.44% 45.97% 44.75%EMEA 37.28% 34.10% 36.91% 39.53% 36.18% 36.80% 34.27% 34.85% 35.51% 36.11% 36.55%Asia-Pacific 12.22% 14.15% 14.11% 13.26% 14.28% 13.60% 15.10% 16.07% 17.14% 18.25% 19.35%Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Historical Sales Growth by Geographic Segment 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020EAmericas (6.00%) 4.41% 1.75% 0.17% 3.60% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 1.00%EMEA 14.00% (6.78%) 16.34% 11.32% (9.64%) (5.00%) 7.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00%Asia-Pacific 31.00% 18.00% 7.22% (2.31%) 6.30% 6.00% 12.00% 12.00% 11.00% 10.00%Total 5.00% 1.90% 7.50% 3.93% (1.28%) 0.29% 5.24% 4.99% 4.24% 3.74%
Historical Sales by Geographic Segment 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 16-20 CAGRAmericas 169.9 177.4 180.5 180.8 187.3 2.47% 191.98 195.82 198.76 200.75 202.75 1.37%EMEA 125.4 116.9 136 151.4 136.8 2.20% 129.96 139.06 148.79 157.72 165.60 6.25%Asia-Pacific 41.1 48.5 52 50.8 54 7.06% 57.24 64.11 71.80 79.70 87.67 11.25%Total 336.4 342.8 368.5 383 378.1 2.96% 379.18 399.05 418.97 436.74 453.05 4.55%
49.54%36.18%
14.28%
50.63%34.27%
15.10%
Americas EMEA Asia-Pacific
44.75%
36.55%
19.35%
2015 2016E 2020E
21
Appendices – Revenue Breakdown
Date 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020ENet sales - MUP 278.76 286.48 320.88 337.83 333.31 337.07 359.47 381.77 401.77 420.18 Y/Y % Change 8.00% 2.77% 12.01% 5.28% -1.34% 1.13% 6.64% 6.20% 5.24% 4.58%Net sales - Homecare 57.65 56.30 47.67 45.17 44.84 42.15 39.62 37.25 35.01 32.91 Y/Y % Change -9.00% -2.3% -15.3% -5.2% -0.7% -6.0% -6.0% -6.0% -6.0% -6.0%Total Sales 336.41 342.78 368.55 383.00 378.15 379.23 399.09 419.01 436.78 453.09 Y/Y % Change 1.90% 7.52% 3.92% -1.27% 0.28% 5.24% 4.99% 4.24% 3.73%Cost of products sold 168.30 174.30 179.39 184.14 177.97 168.76 175.60 186.46 194.37 203.89Gross profit (loss) 168.11 168.48 189.16 198.85 200.18 210.47 223.49 232.55 242.41 249.20 Gross Margin 49.97% 49.15% 51.33% 51.92% 52.94% 55.50% 56.00% 55.50% 55.50% 55.00%
Historical & Project Sales by Product Segment
Historical % of Sales by Product Segment
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Maintenance Products 82.88% 83.58% 87.06% 88.20% 88.15% 88.15% 88.89% 90.08% 91.12% 91.99%Homecare and Cleaning 17.12% 16.42% 12.94% 11.80% 11.85% 11.85% 11.11% 9.92% 8.88% 8.01%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
22
Appendices – Balance Sheet($ In Millions ) Historical Balance Sheet Projected Balance SheetAs of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020ECurrent assets: Cash GR 54.04272646 56.874565 59.714028 62.24590279 64.57078726Cash and cash equivalents 56.39 69.72 53.43 57.80 53.90 73.93 94.60 116.57 139.70 163.67Short-term investments 0.53 1.03 37.52 45.05 48.60 48.60 48.60 48.60 48.60 48.60Cash and Short-tern investments 56.93 70.75 90.95 102.85 102.50 122.53 143.21 165.17 188.31 212.27Accounts Receivable, net 58.32 55.49 56.88 63.62 58.75 60.67 (1) 63.85 67.04 69.88 72.49 Inventories 17.60 29.80 32.43 34.99 32.05 30.33 (2) 31.92 33.52 34.94 36.24 Current deferred tax assets, net 4.85 5.55 5.67 5.86 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 Other current assets 5.45 4.53 6.21 8.34 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 Total current assets 143.16 166.12 192.14 215.65 205.25 225.73 251.17 277.91 305.31 333.19Property and equipment, net 8.48 9.06 8.54 9.70 11.38 14.44(3) 17.33 20.03 22.58 24.97Goodwill 95.45 95.32 95.24 95.50 96.41 96.41 96.41 96.41 96.41 96.41 Other intangible assets, net 29.93 27.69 24.29 23.67 22.96 19.93 (4) 16.91 13.89 11.13 8.87 Other assets 2.75 2.69 2.86 3.15 3.26 3.26 3.26 3.26 3.26 3.26 Total assets 279.78 300.87 323.06 347.68 339.26 359.77 385.08 411.50 438.69 466.71Current liabilities: Accounts payable 19.37 $ 21.24 $ 19.69 $ 18.03 $ 17.13 $ 18.96 (5) $ 19.95 $ 20.95 $ 21.84 $ 22.65 Accrued liabilities 15.26 16.49 16.56 18.38 15.20 17.65 (6) 18.55 19.46 20.23 20.91 Accrued payroll and related expenses 7.47 5.90 17.24 15.97 13.36 12.97 (7) 13.65 14.33 14.94 15.49 Income taxes payable 1.41 0.81 1.15 1.53 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 Total current liabilities 43.52 44.45 54.65 53.91 47.97 51.86 54.44 57.02 59.29 61.34 Revolving credit facility 10.72 45.00 63.00 98.00 108.00 133.00 (8) 133.00 133.00 133.00 133.00 Long-term deferred tax liabilities, net 21.81 24.01 24.01 24.25 23.15 23.15 23.15 23.15 23.15 23.15 Other long-term liabilities 2.51 1.96 1.90 2.10 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.28 Total liabilities $ 78.55 $ 115.41 $ 143.56 $ 178.27 $ 181.40 $ 210.29 $ 212.86 $ 215.45 $ 217.72 $ 219.77 Shareholders' equity: Common stock 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 Additional paid-in capital 117.02 126.21 133.24 136.21 141.65 143.23 (9) 144.81 146.38 147.96 149.54 Retained earnings 176.01 193.27 214.03 237.60 260.68 285.73 306.88 329.15 352.49 376.88 AOCI -0.36 (2.73) (5.04) 1.10 (8.72) (8.72) (8.72) (8.72) (8.72) (8.72)Treasury Stock -91.47 (131.31) (162.74) (205.52) (235.77) (270.77) (270.77) (270.77) (270.77) (270.77)Total shareholders' equity 201.23 $ 185.46 $ 179.51 $ 169.42 $ 157.86 $ 149.48 $ 172.21 $ 196.06 $ 220.97 $ 246.94 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity $ 279.78 $ 300.87 $ 323.06 $ 347.68 $ 339.26 $ 359.77 $ 385.08 $ 411.50 $ 438.69 $ 466.71
23
Appendices – Balance Sheet % of Sales($ In Millions ) Historical Balance Sheet Common Size Projected Balance Sheet Common SizeAs of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020ECurrent assets: Cash and cash equivalents 20.16% 23.17% 16.54% 16.63% 15.89% 20.55% 24.57% 28.33% 31.85% 35.07%Short-term investments 0.19% 0.34% 11.61% 12.96% 14.33% 13.51% 12.62% 11.81% 11.08% 10.41%Accounts Receivable, net 20.85% 18.44% 17.61% 18.30% 17.32% 16.86% 16.58% 16.29% 15.93% 15.53%Inventories 6.29% 9.90% 10.04% 10.06% 9.45% 8.43% 8.29% 8.15% 7.96% 7.77%Current deferred tax assets, net 6.29% 1.84% 1.76% 1.68% 1.72% 1.62% 1.51% 1.42% 1.33% 1.25%Other current assets 1.73% 1.50% 1.92% 2.40% 1.81% 1.70% 1.59% 1.49% 1.40% 1.31%Total current assets 51.17% 55.21% 59.48% 62.03% 60.50% 62.74% 65.23% 67.54% 69.60% 71.39%Property and equipment, net 3.03% 3.01% 2.64% 2.79% 3.35% 4.01% 4.50% 4.87% 5.15% 5.35%Goodwill 34.12% 31.68% 29.48% 27.47% 28.42% 26.80% 25.04% 23.43% 21.98% 20.66%Other intangible assets, net 10.70% 9.20% 7.52% 6.81% 6.77% 5.54% 4.39% 3.38% 2.54% 1.90%Other assets 0.98% 0.89% 0.88% 0.91% 0.96% 0.91% 0.85% 0.79% 0.74% 0.70%Total assets 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%Current liabilities: Accounts payable 6.92% 7.06% 6.10% 5.19% 5.05% 5.27% 5.18% 5.09% 4.98% 4.85%Accrued liabilities 5.45% 5.48% 5.13% 5.29% 4.48% 4.90% 4.82% 4.73% 4.61% 4.48%Accrued payroll and related expenses 2.67% 1.96% 5.34% 4.59% 3.94% 3.60% 3.54% 3.48% 3.40% 3.32%Income taxes payable 0.51% 0.27% 0.35% 0.44% 0.67% 0.64% 0.59% 0.56% 0.52% 0.49%Total current liabilities 15.55% 14.77% 16.91% 15.51% 14.14% 14.41% 14.14% 13.86% 13.52% 13.14%Revolving credit facility 3.83% 14.96% 19.50% 28.19% 31.83% 36.97% 34.54% 32.32% 30.32% 28.50%Long-term deferred tax liabilities, net 7.80% 7.98% 7.43% 6.98% 6.82% 6.43% 6.01% 5.62% 5.28% 4.96%Other long-term liabilities 0.90% 0.65% 0.59% 0.60% 0.67% 0.63% 0.59% 0.55% 0.52% 0.49%Total liabilities 28.08% 38.36% 44.44% 51.27% 53.47% 58.45% 55.28% 52.36% 49.63% 47.09%Shareholders' equity: Common stock 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Additional paid-in capital 41.83% 41.95% 41.24% 39.18% 41.75% 39.81% 37.60% 35.57% 33.73% 32.04%Retained earnings 62.91% 64.24% 66.25% 68.34% 76.84% 79.42% 79.69% 79.99% 80.35% 80.75%AOCI -0.13% -0.91% -1.56% 0.32% -2.57% -2.42% -2.27% -2.12% -1.99% -1.87%Treasury Stock -32.69% -43.64% -50.37% -59.11% -69.50% -75.26% -70.32% -65.80% -61.72% -58.02%Total shareholders' equity 71.92% 61.64% 55.56% 48.73% 46.53% 41.55% 44.72% 47.64% 50.37% 52.91%Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
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Appendices – Cash Flow Statements
25
($ In Millions ) Historical Statement of Cash Flows Projected Statement of Cash FlowsAs of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020EOperating activities: Net income 36.43 35.49 39.81 43.75 44.81 50.09 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97Adjustments to net income: Depreciation and amortization 4.39 4.87 5.36 5.86 6.46 6.22 6.63 6.81 6.72 6.36Impairment of long-lived assets - - 1.08 - - - - - - - Net (gains) losses on sales of PPE 0.15 0.07 0.00 (0.04) (0.07) - - - - - Deferred income taxes 2.83 0.37 (1.00) (0.74) (1.33) - - - - - Excess tax benefits from settlements of stock-based equity awards (1.20) (0.67) (0.85) (0.83) (1.21) (1.21) (1.21) (1.21) (1.21) (1.21)Stock-based compensation 3.03 2.77 2.45 2.26 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78Unrealized foreign currency exchange losses (gains), net 0.47 2.11 1.11 (0.07) 2.09 - - - - - Provision for bad debts 0.16 0.16 0.51 0.22 0.30 - - - - - Changes in assets and liabilities: - - - - - Trade accounts receivable (9.78) 0.23 (3.80) (5.82) (0.31) (1.92) (3.18) (3.19) (2.84) (2.61)Inventories (2.65) (12.35) (2.83) (2.24) 2.04 1.72 (1.59) (1.59) (1.42) (1.30)Other assets 2.80 (0.06) (2.00) (2.21) 1.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 0.66 3.21 (0.89) (0.56) (2.46) 4.28 1.90 1.90 1.66 1.49Accrued payroll and related expenses (7.80) (2.79) 10.36 (3.05) (2.72) (0.39) 0.68 0.68 0.61 0.56Income taxes payable 2.66 1.41 2.28 2.00 2.74 - - - - - Other long-term liabilities (2.15) (0.55) (0.04) 0.19 0.23 - - - - - Net cash provided by operating activities 30.01 34.25 51.57 38.73 55.06 61.58 58.90 61.87 64.64 67.05Investing activities: Purchases of property and equipment (2.88) (3.77) (2.85) (4.09) (5.78) -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 -6.50Proceeds from sales of property and equipment 0.17 1.17 0.16 0.33 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Purchase of intangible assets - - - (1.80) - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Acquisition of business - - - - (4.12) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Purchases of short-term investments (0.52) (1.03) (38.84) (7.71) (10.58) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Maturities of short-term investments - 0.51 2.00 2.76 3.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Net cash used in investing activities (3.22) (3.11) (39.53) (10.50) (16.95) (6.50) (6.50) (6.50) (6.50) (6.50)Financing activities: TS purchases and Dividends Paid (59.63) (58.07) (50.48) (62.96) (51.98) (60.05) (31.73) (33.40) (35.00) (36.58)Treasury stock purchases (41) (39.84) (31.44) (42.77) (30.26) -35.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Dividends paid (18.23) (18.23) (19.04) (20.18) (21.72) -25.05 -31.73 -33.40 -35.00 -36.58Proceeds from issuance of common stock (5.00) 7.03 4.79 1.28 2.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Excess tax benefits from settlements of stock-based equity awards (18.23) 0.67 0.85 0.83 1.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Proceeds from revolving credit facility 20.22 114.55 18.00 35.00 10.00 25.00 - - - - Repayments of revolving credit facility (41.40) (69.55) - - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Repayments of long-term debt 1.20 (10.72) - - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Net cash used in financing activities (48.93) (16.08) (26.84) (25.84) (38.66) (35.05) (31.73) (33.40) (35.00) (36.58)Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents 2.61 (1.73) (1.48) 1.98 (3.36) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents (19.54) 13.33 (16.29) 4.37 (3.91) 20.04 20.67 21.96 23.14 23.97Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 75.93 56.39 69.72 53.43 57.80 53.90 73.93 94.60 116.57 139.70Cash and cash equivalents at end of period 56.39 69.72 53.43 57.80 53.90 73.93 94.60 116.57 139.70 163.67
Appendices – Cash Flow % of Sales
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($ In Millions ) Historical Statement of Cash Flows Common Size Projected Statement of Cash Flows Common SizeAs of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020EOperating activities: Net income 10.83% 10.35% 10.80% 11.42% 11.85% 13.21% 13.25% 13.29% 13.36% 13.46%Adjustments to net income: Depreciation and amortization 1.30% 1.42% 1.45% 1.53% 1.71% 1.64% 1.66% 1.63% 1.54% 1.40%Impairment of long-lived assets 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Net (gains) losses on sales and disposals of property and equipment 0.05% 0.02% 0.00% -0.01% -0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Deferred income taxes 0.84% 0.11% -0.27% -0.19% -0.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Excess tax benefits from settlements of stock-based equity awards -0.36% -0.20% -0.23% -0.22% -0.32% -0.32% -0.30% -0.29% -0.28% -0.27%Stock-based compensation 0.90% 0.81% 0.67% 0.59% 0.74% 0.73% 0.70% 0.66% 0.64% 0.61%Unrealized foreign currency exchange losses (gains), net 0.14% 0.62% 0.30% -0.02% 0.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Provision for bad debts 0.05% 0.05% 0.14% 0.06% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Changes in assets and liabilities: Trade accounts receivable -2.91% 0.07% -1.03% -1.52% -0.08% -0.51% -0.80% -0.76% -0.65% -0.58%Inventories -0.79% -3.60% -0.77% -0.58% 0.54% 0.45% -0.40% -0.38% -0.33% -0.29%Other assets 0.83% -0.02% -0.54% -0.58% 0.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 0.20% 0.94% -0.24% -0.15% -0.65% 1.13% 0.48% 0.45% 0.38% 0.33%Accrued payroll and related expenses -2.32% -0.82% 2.81% -0.80% -0.72% -0.10% 0.17% 0.16% 0.14% 0.12%Income taxes payable 0.79% 0.41% 0.62% 0.52% 0.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Other long-term liabilities -0.64% -0.16% -0.01% 0.05% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Net cash provided by operating activities 8.92% 9.99% 13.99% 10.11% 14.56% 16.24% 14.76% 14.77% 14.80% 14.80%Investing activities: Purchases of property and equipment -0.85% -1.10% -0.77% -1.07% -1.53% -1.71% -1.63% -1.55% -1.49% -1.43%Proceeds from sales of property and equipment 0.05% 0.34% 0.04% 0.09% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Purchase of intangible assets 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.47% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Acquisition of business 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -1.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Purchases of short-term investments -0.15% -0.30% -10.54% -2.01% -2.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Maturities of short-term investments 0.00% 0.15% 0.54% 0.72% 0.84% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Net cash used in investing activities -0.96% -0.91% -10.73% -2.74% -4.48% -1.71% -1.63% -1.55% -1.49% -1.43%Financing activities: Treasury stock purchases -12.31% -11.62% -8.53% -11.17% -8.00% -9.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Dividends paid -5.42% -5.32% -5.17% -5.27% -5.74% -6.61% -7.95% -7.97% -8.02% -8.08%Proceeds from issuance of common stock -1.49% 2.05% 1.30% 0.34% 0.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Excess tax benefits from settlements of stock-based equity awards -5.42% 0.20% 0.23% 0.22% 0.32% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Proceeds from revolving credit facility 6.01% 33.42% 4.88% 9.14% 2.64% 6.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Repayments of revolving credit facility -12.31% -20.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Repayments of long-term debt 0.36% -3.13% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Net cash used in financing activities -14.55% -4.69% -7.28% -6.75% -10.22% -9.24% -7.95% -7.97% -8.02% -8.08%Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents 0.78% -0.50% -0.40% 0.52% -0.89% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents -5.81% 3.89% -4.42% 1.14% -1.03% 5.28% 5.18% 5.24% 5.30% 5.29%Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 22.57% 16.45% 18.92% 13.95% 15.29% 14.21% 18.53% 22.58% 26.69% 30.84%Cash and cash equivalents at end of period 16.76% 20.34% 14.50% 15.09% 14.25% 19.50% 23.71% 27.82% 31.99% 36.13%Cash paid for: Interest 0.29% 0.19% 0.19% 0.24% 0.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Income taxes, net of tax refunds received 3.40% 3.86% 4.51% 4.74% 4.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Appendices – SchedulesPPE Schedule 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020EBeginning, net 11.38 14.44 17.33 20.03 22.58 CAPEX 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 Depreciation (3.43) (3.61) (3.79) (3.96) (4.10)Ending 14.44 17.33 20.03 22.58 24.97 Amortization Schedule 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020EBeginning 22.96 19.93 16.91 13.89 11.13 Amortization (3.03) (3.02) (3.02) (2.76) (2.26)Ending 19.93 16.91 13.89 11.13 8.87 Dividend Payout Schedule 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020EWeighted average shares outstanding 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14Dividend 25.05 31.73 33.40 35.00 36.58 60.05 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97Dividend + TS 31.73 33.40 35.00 36.58
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Appendices – Beta Calculation
28
Appendices – FDSO (Treasury Method)Share Price, 1-year Average $ 87.02
Stock Options Outstanding as of 08/31/15 62,620 Weighted-Average Exercise Price $ 34.97 Cash Proceeds $2,189,821 Shares Repurchased 25,165 Restricted Stock Units (RSU) Outstanding as of 08/31/15 136,895 Weighted-Average Grant Date Fair Value $ 47.19 Cash Proceeds $6,460,075 Shares Repurchased 74,237
Market Share Units (MSU) Outstanding as of 08/31/15 57,604 Weighted-Average Grant Date Fair Value $ 57.37 Cash Proceeds $3,304,741 Shares Repurchased 37,977 Deferred Performance Units (DPU) Outstanding as of 08/31/15 30,798 Weighted-Average Grant Date Fair Value $ 75.14 Cash Proceeds $2,314,162 Shares Repurchased 26,593
Basic Shares Outstanding as of 11/30/15 14,406,219Plus: New Shares from Exercise of Options, Rights and Warrants 287,917Less: Shares Repurchased 163,971Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 14,530,165
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Sensitivity Analysis - WACC Calculation Risk Free Rate 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
Market Risk Premium
3.0% 2.8% 3.2% 3.7% 4.2% 4.6% 5.1% 5.5% 6.0%4.5% 3.9% 4.4% 4.8% 5.3% 5.7% 6.2% 6.7% 7.1%6.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.4% 6.9% 7.3% 7.8% 8.3%7.5% 6.2% 6.6% 7.1% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 8.9% 9.4%9.0% 7.3% 7.7% 8.2% 8.7% 9.1% 9.6% 10.0% 10.5%
10.5% 8.4% 8.9% 9.3% 9.8% 10.3% 10.7% 11.2% 11.6%12.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 10.9% 11.4% 11.8% 12.3% 12.8%
Appendices – WACC Sensitivity
WACC AnalysisRisk Free Rate 2.00%S&P 500 Adjusted Beta 0.815Market Risk Premium 7.50%Cost Of Equity 8.11%Interest Expense $ 1,205,000 Debt Outstanding $ 108,000,000 Pretax Cost of Debt 1.12%Marginal Tax Rate 0.298After Tax Cost of Debt 0.79%Equity Financing 92.17%Debt Financing 7.83%WACC 7.54%
Cost of Debt - preferred method Interest Expense $ 1,205,000 Debt Outstanding $ 108,000,000 Pretax Cost of Debt 1.12%Marginal Tax Rate 0.298After Tax Cost of Debt 0.78%
30
Cost of Debt Calculations Using Current Credit Agreement Terms
Debt USD LIBOR - 3mo* MarginLIBOR+Margin
Outstanding Balance
Commitment Fee**
Revolving Line of Credit 0.62110% 0.85% 1.47%
$108,000,000 0.13% Pretax Cost of Debt 1.52% Marginal Tax Rate 0.298 After Tax Cost of Debt 1.07% *Source: http://www.global-rates.com/ ** applied to the portion of the total credit facility commitment that has not been borrowed
Appendices – DCF CalculationsPeriod 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5Year 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Terminal Value(+) Revenue 379.18 399.05 418.97 436.74 453.05(-) COGS 170.63 179.57 188.54 196.53 203.87 (-) Operating Costs 135.74 142.69 149.66 155.62 160.83(=) Operating Profit 51.11 53.91 56.70 59.38 62.02 62.021(-) Change in NWC -3.54 5.02 5.04 4.53 4.19 0(-) Investments in Fixed Capital -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 0(-) Depreciation 6.22 6.63 6.81 6.72 6.36 0(=) FCF 54.37 49.02 51.98 55.07 57.69 1261.58(^) Present Value 52.43 43.96 43.34 42.70 41.60 909.64
Terminal Value with Multiple2020E EBITDA 90.61(*)Exit Multiple 19.4(=)Terminal Value 1757.82Discounted Terminal Value 1267.44
Perpetuity TerminalX(+) Sum of PVs (Fair Value) 1133.67 1311.40(-) Net Debt 108.00 108.00(+) Excess Cash 48.60 48.60(=) Equity Value 1074.27 1252.00(/) Diluted Shares Outstanding 14.53 14.53(=) Share Price $73.93 $86.17Feb 19, 2016 Price $107.79Estimated Upside -31.4% -20.1%
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Appendices – NWC Calculations
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020ECash (Required) 56.39 69.72 53.43 57.80 53.90 54.04 56.87 59.71 62.25 64.57 Accounts Receivable, net 58.32 55.49 56.88 63.62 58.75 60.67 63.85 67.04 69.88 72.49 Inventories 17.60 29.80 32.43 34.99 32.05 30.33 31.92 33.52 34.94 36.24 Current deferred tax assets, net 4.85 5.55 5.67 5.86 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 Other current assets 5.45 4.53 6.21 8.34 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 Total current assets 142.62 165.08 154.63 170.60 156.65 157.00 164.60 172.22 179.01 185.25
Accounts payable 19.37 21.24 19.69 18.03 17.13 18.96 19.95 20.95 21.84 22.65 Accrued liabilities 15.26 16.49 16.56 18.38 15.20 17.65 18.55 19.46 20.23 20.91 Accrued payroll and related expenses 7.47 5.90 17.24 15.97 13.36 12.97 13.65 14.33 14.94 15.49 Income taxes payable 1.41 0.81 1.15 1.53 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 Total current liabilities 43.52 44.45 54.65 53.91 47.97 51.86 54.44 57.02 59.29 61.34
Net Working Capital (NWC) 99.11 120.64 99.98 116.69 108.68 105.14 110.16 115.20 119.72 123.91
Change in NWC 21.53 (20.66) 16.71 (8.02) (3.54) 5.02 5.04 4.53 4.19
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Appendices – DCF SensitivitySensitivity Analysis - Perpetuity Growth
Terminal Growth Rate $73.93 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25%
Discount Rate (WACC)
4.5% $142.00 $155.30 $171.56 $191.89 $218.03 $252.88 $301.66 5.5% $103.08 $109.82 $117.60 $126.68 $137.40 $150.27 $166.00 6.5% $ 80.57 $ 84.57 $ 89.05 $ 94.08 $ 99.79 $106.31 $113.84 7.5% $ 65.90 $ 68.51 $ 71.38 $ 74.54 $ 78.03 $ 81.90 $ 86.24 8.5% $ 55.58 $ 57.41 $ 59.38 $ 61.52 $ 63.85 $ 66.38 $ 69.16 9.5% $ 47.93 $ 49.27 $ 50.70 $ 52.23 $ 53.87 $ 55.64 $ 57.55
10.5% $ 42.04 $ 43.05 $ 44.13 $ 45.27 $ 46.48 $ 47.77 $ 49.16
Estimated Upside Terminal Growth Rate 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25%
Discount Rate (WACC)
4.5% 31.7% 44.1% 59.2% 78.0% 102.3% 134.6% 179.9%5.5% -4.4% 1.9% 9.1% 17.5% 27.5% 39.4% 54.0%6.5% -25.3% -21.5% -17.4% -12.7% -7.4% -1.4% 5.6%7.5% -38.9% -36.4% -33.8% -30.8% -27.6% -24.0% -20.0%8.5% -48.4% -46.7% -44.9% -42.9% -40.8% -38.4% -35.8%9.5% -55.5% -54.3% -53.0% -51.5% -50.0% -48.4% -46.6%
10.5% -61.0% -60.1% -59.1% -58.0% -56.9% -55.7% -54.4% Implied EV/EBITDA
Terminal Growth Rate 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25%
Discount Rate (WACC)
4.5% 23.56 25.98 28.94 32.63 37.39 43.72 52.595.5% 17.28 18.56 20.03 21.76 23.79 26.23 29.226.5% 13.64 14.43 15.32 16.32 17.45 18.74 20.237.5% 11.27 11.81 12.40 13.05 13.77 14.57 15.478.5% 9.60 9.99 10.42 10.88 11.38 11.92 12.529.5% 8.36 8.66 8.98 9.32 9.69 10.09 10.52
10.5% 7.40 7.64 7.89 8.16 8.44 8.74 9.07 33
Appendices – DCF SensitivitySensitivity Analysis - Terminal EBITDA Multiple
EV/EBITDA $86.17 13.4 15.4 17.4 19.4 21.4 23.4 25.4
Discount Rate (WACC)
4.5% $ 71.33 $ 81.56 $ 91.79 $102.02 $112.25 $122.48 $132.71 5.5% $ 68.41 $ 78.21 $ 88.01 $ 97.81 $107.61 $117.41 $127.22 6.5% $ 65.63 $ 75.03 $ 84.42 $ 93.82 $103.21 $112.60 $122.00 7.5% $ 63.00 $ 72.01 $ 81.01 $ 90.02 $ 99.03 $108.04 $117.04 8.5% $ 60.49 $ 69.13 $ 77.77 $ 86.41 $ 95.05 $103.69 $112.33 9.5% $ 58.11 $ 66.40 $ 74.69 $ 82.98 $ 91.27 $ 99.56 $107.85
10.5% $ 55.84 $ 63.80 $ 71.76 $ 79.72 $ 87.68 $ 95.64 $103.59
Estimated Upside EV/EBITDA 13.4 15.4 17.4 19.4 21.4 23.4 25.4
Discount Rate (WACC)
4.5% -37.3% -27.8% -18.3% -8.8% 0.7% 10.2% 19.7%5.5% -40.0% -30.9% -21.8% -12.7% -3.6% 5.5% 14.6%6.5% -42.6% -33.8% -25.1% -16.4% -7.7% 1.0% 9.7%7.5% -45.0% -36.6% -28.3% -19.9% -11.6% -3.2% 5.1%8.5% -47.3% -39.3% -31.3% -23.3% -15.3% -7.2% 0.8%9.5% -49.5% -41.8% -34.1% -26.5% -18.8% -11.1% -3.4%
10.5% -51.6% -44.2% -36.9% -29.5% -22.1% -14.7% -7.3%
Implied Perpetuity Growth EV/EBITDA 13.4 15.4 17.4 19.4 21.4 23.4 25.4
Discount Rate (WACC)
4.5% 0.2% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9%5.5% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.9%6.5% 2.2% 2.6% 2.9% 3.2% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9%7.5% 3.1% 3.5% 3.9% 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8%8.5% 4.1% 4.5% 4.9% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.8%9.5% 5.0% 5.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8%
10.5% 6.0% 6.4% 6.8% 7.1% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 34
Appendices – Multiples History
2/28/2
006
7/25/2
006
12/19
/2006
5/15/2
007
10/9/
2007
3/4/20
08
7/29/2
008
12/23
/2008
5/19/2
009
10/13
/2009
3/9/20
10
8/3/20
10
12/28
/2010
5/24/2
011
10/18
/2011
3/13/2
012
8/7/20
12
1/1/20
13
5/28/2
013
10/22
/2013
3/18/2
014
8/12/2
014
1/6/20
15
6/2/20
15
10/27
/2015
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
P/E
EV/EBITDA
Mul
tiple
WDFC Historical Valuation Multiples
Source: Bloomberg Data35
Historical P/E Historical EV/EBITDA 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
WDFC US 22.2x 22.5x 23.9x 27.4x 13.1x 13.9x 14.5x 16.9xNEU US 14.3x 18.7x 21.6x 19.4x 9.6x 11.3x 13.1x 12.4x
CHMT US 18.5x 54.2x 5.0x 13.1x 8.2x 13.8x 2.7x -ASH US 35.0x 12.0x 41.0x 14.8x 11.9x 7.2x 20.8x 11.5xALB US 14.2x 12.4x 20.2x 14.4x 11.6x 8.5x 14.0x 14.3x
UNVR US - - - 52.5x - - - 8.3xGCP US - - - 8.8x - - - 7.8xCC US - - - 4.2x - - - 7.8xPAH US - - - 10.5x - - 54.8x 8.7xEMN US 12.7x 12.5x 11.1x 9.3x 13.0x 7.1x 11.6x -DD US 13.9x 18.8x 23.2x 24.6x 10.4x 12.5x 12.9x 13.5x
MTX US 18.5x 24.9x 18.2x 10.5x 6.3x 9.6x 14.4x -Min 12.7x 12.0x 5.0x 4.2x 6.3x 7.1x 2.7x 7.8xMax 35.0x 54.2x 41.0x 52.5x 13.0x 13.8x 54.8x 14.3x
Mean 18.2x 21.9x 20.0x 16.6x 10.1x 10.0x 18.0x 10.5x
Appendices – Multiples Comparison
36
CompanyMarket Cap (M)
Adj. Beta
5Y Rev Growth
6m Return
Div. Yield
Gross Margin
EBITDA/Int. Exp.
Current EV (M) EV/Rev EV/EBITDA P/E
2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E
WDFC US $1,496.80 0.752 2.90% 17.80% 1.46% 55.60% 59.6x $1,502.00 3.2x 19.2x 18.6x 30.6x 28.3x
NEU US $3,988.10 0.842 1.10% -14.70% 1.72% 32.00% 27.2x $4,389.30 2.3x 11.6x 11.5x 17.9x 17.7x
CHMT US $1,733.70 1.252 -7.70% -9.60% 0.00% 26.40% 16.0x $1,934.70 0.9x 7.7x 6.6x 18.0x 14.1xASH US $5,812.30 0.954 -2.20% -19.60% 1.64% 33.70% 4.8x $8,810.30 1.7x 7.9x 7.6x 12.9x 11.5xALB US $5,765.00 1.541 10.80% 1.80% 2.23% 34.50% 8.6x $9,503.90 2.2x 10.5x 9.9x 14.0x 13.2x
UNVR US $1,654.10 - - -45.60% 0.00% 16.70% 1.7x $4,621.10 - 7.8x 7.9x 37.4x 10.7x
GCP US $1,115.40 - - - - - - $1,840.40 - 7.5x 7.4x 8.1x 11.0xCC US $702.20 - - -63.30% 0.77% 17.80% - $4,453.20 - 7.6x 6.6x 5.5x 4.7xPAH US $1,255.30 1.68 - -71.80% 0.00% 40.60% - $4,716.30 6.3x 8.5x 6.2x 9.5x 6.7x
EMN US $9,014.50 1.175 9.30% -19.70% 2.74% 28.40% - $16,064.50 - 7.3x 6.9x 8.7x 7.8xDD US $50,906.20 0.897 -5.80% 9.80% 2.95% 35.70% 11.0x $53,951.20 2.4x 10.8x 9.5x 19.4x 16.7x
MTX US $1,540.40 1.532 18.00% -25.30% 0.45% 25.40% - $2,600.50 1.5x 7.1x 6.7x 10.0x 9.0xMean 1.181 3.30% -21.80% 1.27% 31.50% 18.4x 2.6x 9.4x 8.8x 16.0x 12.6x
St. Deviation 0.323 8.30% 27.20% 1.05% 10.30% 18.5x 1.6x 3.3x 3.3x 9.2x 6.0xMedian 1.175 2.00% -19.60% 1.46% 32.00% 11.0x 2.2x 7.8x 7.5x 13.4x 11.2x
Appendices – Comparables
37
Appendices – DDM
Gordon Growth Model 2020E Payout/Share 3.35 Discount Rate 7.54%2019E Growth Rate 4.79%Terminal Value 121.95
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020EDividends + Repurchases 59.63 58.07 50.48 62.96 51.98 60.05 31.73 33.40 35.00 36.58 Net Income 36.43 35.49 39.81 43.75 44.81 50.09 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97 Payout ratio 164% 164% 127% 144% 116% 120% 60% 60% 60% 60%Payout/share 3.51 3.62 3.23 4.16 3.55 4.23 2.23 2.35 2.46 3.35
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E TerminalDividends + Repurchases 4.23 2.23 2.35 2.46 3.35 121.95 Discount Rate (WACC) 7.54% 7.54% 7.54% 7.54% 7.54% Growth Rate 19.09% -47.14% 5.27% 4.79%PV 3.93 1.93 1.89 93.02 Sum (Value/Share) 100.77
38
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
47484950515253545556 Eurozone PMI
China PMIU.S. PMI
Period
PMI L
evel
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2,9202,9402,9602,9803,0003,0203,0403,060
Date
Mile
s (m
illio
ns)
Source: Bloomberg Data
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
22,50023,00023,50024,00024,50025,00025,50026,000
Date
$/Ve
hicl
e
Source: Bloomberg Data
Historical PMI Levels
US vehicles Miles on Public Roads
AVG US Expenditure/Vehicle
Appendices – Demand Drivers
Source: Bloomberg Data
39
Appendices – WDFC Suppliers
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
6.78%
3.70%
1.91%1.51%
0.85%0.29% 0.22% 0.13%
Company
Per
cent
age
of T
otal
Rev
enue
• Large Retailers Responsible for 15% of Sales
• Sacrifice Pricing Power• Give-up Margin Expansion Potential
• Already sell at a Premium• Difficult to grow sales from Price
Increases
• Further Pressure on performance of MUP products
Source: Bloomberg Data
40
Appendices - Counterfeiting Issue
“In addition, from time to time the Company discovers products in certain markets that are counterfeit reproductions of the Company’s products as well as products otherwise bearing an infringing trade dress.” (FY 14 10K)“
“In addition, the Company frequently discovers products in certain markets that are counterfeit reproductions of the Company’s products as well as products otherwise bearing an infringing trade dress.” (FY 15 10K)
41
Healthy Balance Sheet
High Liquidity
Strong Cash Position
$90.8 million out of $102.5 million cash held outside of the U.S. as the end of FY 15
Profitability Ratios
2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ROA 13.05% 14.33% 14.20% 13.98% 13.72% 13.47%
ROE 27.38% 32.60% 32.88% 30.23% 27.98% 26.06%
Profit Margin
11.85% 13.21% 13.25% 13.29% 13.36% 13.46%
Liquidity Ratios
2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Current Ratio
4.28 4.35 4.61 4.87 5.15 5.43
Quick Ratio 3.36 3.53 3.80 4.07 4.35 4.64
Appendices – Selected Ratios
42
Appendices – Ratios
43
44
Appendices – Ratios
We project that ROE
will decrease from
32.6% in FY16E to
20.06% in FY20E
ROE Trend 2011 -2020E
Appendices – ROE reversal
45
LT Debt/LT Capital and LT Debt/Total Equity Trend
Increasing the use of
revolving credit line for
share purchases has
negative effect on
solvency
Appendices – Solvency Trend
46
Appendices – Business Strategies
• Maximizing Sales of Flagship Product (WD-40 Multi-Use Product)
• Growing the WD-40 Specialist Product Line
• Extending Product and Revenue Base
• Attracting, Developing and Retaining Talented People
• Operating with Excellence
47
Appendices – Product Portfolio
48
WD-40 Multi-Use Product - The WD-40 multi -use product is a market leader among multi-purpose maintenance products and is sold as an aerosol spray, a non-aerosol trigger spray and in liquid form through mass retail stores, hardware stores, warehouse club stores, automotive parts outlets and industrial distributors and suppliers. The WD-40 multi-use product is sold worldwide in North, Central and South America, Asia, Australia and the Pacific Rim, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The WD-40 multi-use product has a wide variety of consumer uses in, for example, household, marine, automotive, construction, repair, sporting goods and gardening applications, in addition to numerous industrial applications WD-40 Specialist product line – WD-40 Specialist, introduced in 2011, consists of a line of best-in-class specialty maintenance products that include penetrants, degreasers, corrosion inhibitors, lubricants and rust removers that are aimed at an expanded group of end users that currently use the WD-40 multi-use product. The Company initially launched the WD-40 Specialist product line early in fiscal year 2012 and it currently sells these products in the U.S., Canada and select countries in Latin America, Asia, Australia and Europe. WD-40 Bike product line - The WD-40 Bike product line consists of a comprehensive line of bicycle maintenance products that include wet and dry chain lubricants, heavy-duty degreasers, foaming wash and frame protectants that are designed specifically for avid cyclists, bike enthusiasts and mechanics. The Company launched this product line in the U.S. early in fiscal year 2013 and in Australia and Europe near the end of fiscal year 2014. Although the initial focus for such sales was on smaller independent bike dealers, primarily those in the U.S., distribution of WD-40 Bike products has been expanded to include certain distributors and retailers. 3-IN-ONE - The 3-IN-ONE brand consists of multi-purpose drip oil and spray lubricant products, as well as other specialty maintenance products. The drip oil is a lubricant with unique spout options that allow for precise applications to small mechanisms and assemblies, tool maintenance and threads on screws and bolts. 3-IN-ONE Oil is the market share leader among drip oils for household consumers. It also has wide industrial applications in such areas as locksmithing, HVAC, marine, farming, construction and jewelry manufacturing. In addition to the drip oil line of products, the 3-IN-ONE brand also includes a professional line of products known as 3-IN-ONE Professional, which is a line of high quality, maintenance products. 3-IN-ONE products are sold primarily in the U.S., Europe, Canada, Latin America, Australia and Asia. GT85® - The GT85 brand is a multi-purpose bike maintenance product that consists of professional spray maintenance products and lubricants which are sold primarily in the bike market through the automotive and industrial channels in the U.K., with additional sales in foreign markets including those in Spain and other European countries. GT85 products are also currently sold in the United States. This brand was acquired by the Company’s U.K. subsidiary in September 2014 and it will help to build upon the Company’s strategy to develop new product categories for WD-40 Specialist and WD-40 BIKE.
Appendices – Product Portfolio
49
X-14 - The X-14 brand is a line of quality products designed for unique cleaning needs. X-14 is sold as a liquid mildew stain remover and as an automatic toilet bowl cleaner. X-14 is sold primarily in the U.S. through grocery and mass retail channels. 2000 Flushes - The 2000 Flushes brand is a line of long-lasting automatic toilet bowl cleaners which includes a variety of formulas. 2000 Flushes is sold primarily in the U.S. and Canada through grocery and mass retail channels. Carpet Fresh - The Carpet Fresh brand is a line of room and rug deodorizers sold as powder, aerosol quick-dry foam and trigger spray products. Carpet Fresh is sold primarily through grocery and mass retail channels in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia. In the U.K., these products are sold under the 1001 brand name and in Australia, they are sold under the No Vac brand name. Spot Shot - The Spot Shot brand is sold as an aerosol carpet stain remover and a liquid trigger carpet stain and odor eliminator. The brand also includes environmentally friendly products such as Spot Shot Instant Carpet Stain & Odor Eliminator™ and Spot Shot Pet Clean, which are non-toxic and biodegradable. Spot Shot products are sold primarily through grocery and mass retail channels, warehouse club stores and hardware and home center stores in the U.S. and Canada. Spot Shot products are also sold in the U.K. under the 1001 brand name. 1001 - The 1001 brand includes carpet and household cleaners and rug and room deodorizers which are sold primarily through mass retail, grocery and home center stores in the U.K. The brand was acquired in order to introduce the Company’s other homecare and cleaning product formulations under the 1001 brand and to expand the Company’s homecare and cleaning products business into the U.K. market. Lava - The Lava and Solvol brands consist of heavy-duty hand cleaner products which are sold in bar soap and liquid form through hardware, grocery, industrial, automotive and mass retail channels. Lava is sold primarily in the U.S., while Solvol is sold exclusively in Australia. Source: 2015 Annual Report
Appendices – Shareholder Structure
50Source: Bloomberg Data
Appendices – Can Cost Components
51Source: Company FY15 Investor Presentation
Appendices – WDFC vs. Benchmarks
Recommendation: Sell
2/19/2016 Closing Price: $107.79
12-Month Price Target: $87
Downside Potential: 19%
14-Feb-2011 14-Feb-2012 14-Feb-2013 14-Feb-2014 14-Feb-2015 14-Feb-20160.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2
2.25
2.5
2.75
3
WDFC
S5SPCH
SPX
S5HOUS
Date
$
$1 Invested in 2011
Source: Bloomberg Historical Prices
52