Weather Briefing Dangerous Early Season Winter Storm

October 29, 2011

Prepared 3pm EDT Saturday, October 29, 2011

Nelson Vaz– Senior MeteorologistNOAA’s National Weather Service

New York, NY Forecast Office

Executive Summary

• Historic and Dangerous Early Season Nor’Easter underway.

• Damaging Heavy Wet Snow and Strong Winds This Afternoon through Early Tonight across NYC metro and interior. Widespread Tree Damage and Power Outages expected. 8 to 14 inches of snowfall across interior sections…6 to 10 inches of snowfall across NYC metro.

• Heavy Rain “Changing” to Wet Snow Eastern LI/coastal SE Conn this Evening.

• Strong to High Winds (25-35 MPH with Gusts 45-60 MPH +).

• Widespread minor Coastal Flooding with early Tonight High Tides

• Extremely Dangerous Travel Area Wide into Tonight

200 PM Surface Analysis

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Forecast for 8 PM This Evening

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Forecast for 2 AM Tonight

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Winter Storm/High Wind Warnings

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HPC’s Additional ForecastStorm Total (Liquid)

7

Storm Total (Liquid) Forecast

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Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

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Winds

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• Highest Winds Along Coast

- Sustained 25-35 with Gusts 45 to 60 mph+

• Winds 20-30 with Gusts to 45 mph Inland

• Strongest winds this evening through overnight.

• Widespread tree damage and power outages from combined strong winds and heavy wet snow on trees with full to partial foliage.

Coastal Flooding

• Widespread minor coastal flood threat with early Tonight high tides. Locally moderate coastal flooding across south shore backs bays of western LI.

Tidal Forecast

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Climatology of First Measurable Snow

• 0.5 Inches in Central Park on 10/21/1952

• 0.3 Inches in Newark on 10/20/1952

• 0.5 Inches in Bridgeport on 10/4/1987

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Further Information

• National Weather Service New York, NY

- http://www.weather.gov/nyc

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