Weather Forecasting Science and Service Deilvery Gerald Fleming

Weather ForecastingWeather ForecastingScience and Service DeilveryScience and Service Deilvery

Gerald FlemingGerald Fleming

Met Services

Scientific training informs culture Exact use of words and phrases

• Tradition of scientific papers

• Information needs study and thought

Command of detail Emphasis on routine services

• Interchangeability of staff

• Procedures before people

Scientist Stereotypes

Introverted Serious Earnest Precise Intense Disconnected from the ordinary world Bookish

Media and Media People

Creative training and background Competing for attention – shouting loudest Concept of Editorial Responsibility Different media have different drivers;

• TV, Internet – Strength of Images

• Radio – Voice Quality

• Newspapers – Writing Quality (story telling) All are PERSONALITY driven

Media Stereotypes

Talkative Loud Emotional Partying / Drinking / etc Self-centered Self-important Shallow

Meteorology and the Media There are commonalities (especially with

weather scientists?)• Curiosity

• Value Experience

• Work in a time-bound manner

Weather Broadcasters speak to both sides• Draw suspicion from both sides!

Public Service and the Media Media are always a special case!

A “medium” to other, ultimate, users.

Will have a large say in shaping the weather services offered through them.

May impede feedback from ultimate users to NMHSs

Media are partly a client and partly a “medium”. NMHS must satisfy two different sets of

requirements.

Remembering our beginnings...

Meteorology (in the modern sense) was conceived as a response to a problem – the loss of sailing ships in stormy weather.

The development of Meteorology was greatly driven by the needs of Aviation in the middle years of the 20th century.

Since then the development has been driven primarily by science, especially through Numerical Weather Prediction and Remote Sensing technologies.

A Complex Challenge

The development of our science has brought us the capability of providing a lot of useful information to society.

Society itself has become much more complex, and there is a wide diversity of need, from the most under-developed countries to the most developed.

The problems facing society are many and multi-faceted. The connections between daily life and Meteorology are

not as obvious as they once were. We must work harder to embed our products and

services in business and in society.

Credibility

Cannot over-emphasise the importance of personal contact.

Humans invest credibility in other humans – not necessarily in systems or organisations.

The NMHS contact point to the user personifies the service.

This person carries the brand of the NMHS Careful selection and training of suitable

people is required.

The Web – a special case Has vastly increased the amount of available

weather information. Driven by ease of use and ease of access. Has weakened the importance of the

personality as presenter of weather. This will change as bandwidth increases and

compression techniques improve. A challenge to NMHSs – can we also become

good broadcasters?

WMO Guidelines on Weather Presentation

Prepared by weather forecasters / broadcasters / experts.

Published on the WMO Website URL:

www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/publicationsguidelines_en.htm

Easier URL: www.iabm.org

Weather Broadcast Guidelines

Presenting the Weather – the challenge• Building a story from the “facts”

• How much can you put in?

• Filtering and funneling

• Threading the facts together

• Reiteration

• Ending with a punch


Visualising the weather story

• Television is a visual medium

• Different tools for different situations

• Strengths and weaknesses of graphic systems

• Visual structure of the forecast

• Composition of the charts

• Timing Does it make sense with the sound down?


Effective use of Language• Breaking free from the language of science

• Breaking free from cliché

• Weather is a sensory experience

• Clarity and Enthusiasm are important

• Pausing, Punching

• Breaking free from bad habits

• Don’t be afraid to be different

Weather Broadcast Guidelines The Communication of Uncertainty

• A new, and growing area

• Ensemble techniques give probability forecasts

• How best to describe and communicate these?

• Need to preserve the confidence of the viewer

• Communicate uncertainty in words or in figures? Very important for:

• Hurricane/storm forecast tracks

• Seasonal outlooks

Radio Broadcast Guidelines

Guidelines published on Weather Broadcasting for Radio

The Importance of the Voice• Clarity

• Pacing

• Pitch

• Accent

• Scripting

What is a forecast for? A forecast is an OUTPUT of our work. It acts as an INPUT to decision-making

by users. Decision-making can be simple or

sophisticated The decision is the ultimate OUTCOME. A forecast is USELESS until someone

uses it to make a decision!

Information into Knowledge

Must package and share the information Users apply knowledge to their own

problems Probabilistic products need careful

interpretation Decisions are normally deterministic

How do we experience weather?

The wind, the rain, the temperature.. Weather is a Tactile Experience The primary “organ” through which we

experience weather is our skin! We cannot measure feelings – so we

“observe” the weather with instrumentation.

One description of the process of weather forecasting…..

Feel the weather Define the elements of weather Measure the elements Collect the measurements Calculate the evolution of the elements Represent the results (words, graphs,

pictures…) Describe how it will feel

One description of the process of weather forecasting…..

Feel the weather Define the elements of weather Measure the elements Collect the measurements Calculate the evolution of the elements Represent the results (words, graphs,

pictures…) Describe how it will feel

The basics of weather forecasting

Find out what is happening now Understand the dynamics of the

atmosphere Predict where the weather systems will

be tomorrow What does that mean for the wind, the

rain, the temperatures??

Process of producing a forecast

Feel the weather as you step outside the door! Examine the situation NOW

• Observations

• Satellite imagery

• Radar Imagery

• Synoptic chart

• Upper-air chart

• Tephigram


Look back – history of the weather over the previous days (it helps if you were working yesterday!)

Examine the airmasses• warm / cold

• dry / moist

• stable / unstable


Time to look forward Examine time-series of prognostic charts

(“progs”) Range of different elements Variety of different models Variety of temporal and spatial resolution Areas of coverage


Model parameters• Surface pressure

• Upper-air geopotential height

• Upper-air temperatures

• 850hPa θw

• Surface precipitation

• Winds; surface, 950hPa, 500hPa, Jetstream


Range of models known as the “Poor Mans Ensemble”

Can demonstrate significant differences in the synoptic evolution

How do we reconcile these?


History – which models have been performing best in the recent past.

Prejudice, or favouritism! Consideration of model strengths,

especially vis-à-vis the synoptic situation Is there a reason for the divergence?

• Developments in observation-poor regions

• Extra-tropical transitions

Format the Forecast

Words• To be read

• To be spoken

Images• Technical, e.g. synoptic chart

• Simpler – weather icons

Numbers• e.g. temperature, Beaufort Force

• Tables for specialised users (e.g. wave height, period)

Presenting the Forecast

How much meaning comes through WHAT we say?

7% !! How much from HOW we say it? 38% ! The rest – 55% - from how we LOOK

when we are saying it. (Albert Mehrabian)

Ten Guidelines of Good Weather Broadcasting Good Knowledge Look Presentable Be Organised Take Charge of the

Studio Tell the story in a

clear, concise manner

Be Natural Good Eyeline and

Eye Contact Pitching and pausing Explain the technical

terms Funnel the

information down to the forecast message

Documents

Weather Forecasting Science and Service Deilvery Gerald Fleming