Weather or Not?Weather or Not?

Weather basics for sound decision Weather basics for sound decision making!making!

What to do for bad decision making?What to do for bad decision making?

Resources for WeatherResources for Weather

Good- Before!!Good- Before!!– NewspaperNewspaper– TV- Danny Treanor????TV- Danny Treanor????– VHF radio-Weather channelsVHF radio-Weather channels– Computer- Internet-NOAAComputer- Internet-NOAA

Better- During TripBetter- During Trip– Smart Phone-Accu-weatherSmart Phone-Accu-weather– Satellite weather on chart plotter-XM or SiriusSatellite weather on chart plotter-XM or Sirius– RadarRadar– Read the sky?Read the sky?

BEST- ALL of the above!!!BEST- ALL of the above!!!

Types of CloudsTypes of Clouds

Cirrus UncinusCirrus Uncinus

High Ice Clouds. Good Weather if winds from W, NW to N. Precipitation High Ice Clouds. Good Weather if winds from W, NW to N. Precipitation likely within likely within

20 to 30 hours if winds steady from NE, E to S 20 to 30 hours if winds steady from NE, E to S

Types of CloudsTypes of Clouds

Altocumulus TranslucidusAltocumulus Translucidus

Water and ice clouds. Some precipitation likely within 15 to 20 Water and ice clouds. Some precipitation likely within 15 to 20 hours if wind is steady NE to S Other winds bring overcast skyhours if wind is steady NE to S Other winds bring overcast sky

Types of CloudsTypes of Clouds

Nimbostratus Nimbostratus Rain or snow clouds. Precipitation of long duration if winds NE to S, Rain or snow clouds. Precipitation of long duration if winds NE to S,

or shorter duration if winds are SW W to Nor shorter duration if winds are SW W to N

CONVECTIONCONVECTION

Lifting by Convergence Lifting by Convergence broad lifting of an entire layer of air broad lifting of an entire layer of air

Convergence is an atmospheric condition that exists whenConvergence is an atmospheric condition that exists when there is a horizontal net inflow of air into a region.there is a horizontal net inflow of air into a region.

When air converges along the earth's surface, When air converges along the earth's surface, it is forced to rise since it cannot go downward.it is forced to rise since it cannot go downward.

Cumulus CongestusCumulus Congestus

If clouds form from SW to NW, precipitation withIf clouds form from SW to NW, precipitation with gusty winds and thunderstorms or wind squalls gusty winds and thunderstorms or wind squalls

are likely within 5 to 10 hours.are likely within 5 to 10 hours.

Stratocumulus at sunsetStratocumulus at sunset

Low to middle water clouds with gold, pink, amber, lavender or rosy background.Low to middle water clouds with gold, pink, amber, lavender or rosy background. No precipitation likely within 20 -24 hours No precipitation likely within 20 -24 hours

Stratocumulus at Sunset

Low water clouds of dark Indian red color.Low water clouds of dark Indian red color. Precipitation in 12 to 20 hours if winds from NE to S. Precipitation in 12 to 20 hours if winds from NE to S.

Other winds bring overcast sky.Other winds bring overcast sky.

ForecastingForecasting

Persistence MethodPersistence Method today equals tomorrow today equals tomorrow There are several different methods that can be used to create a There are several different methods that can be used to create a

forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast. and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.

The first of these methods is the Persistence Method; the simplest way The first of these methods is the Persistence Method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degrees today, the persistence method predicts that it is sunny and 87 degrees today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow.

Effects of Frontal LiftingEffects of Frontal Lifting on forecasted precipitation on forecasted precipitation

Forecast Tip:Forecast Tip: If there is sufficient moisture in the air and a forcing If there is sufficient moisture in the air and a forcing

mechanism like a cold front (for example) is approaching mechanism like a cold front (for example) is approaching the area, then there is an increased probability that the area, then there is an increased probability that

precipitation will occur. precipitation will occur. Clouds and precipitation are formed by the upward motion Clouds and precipitation are formed by the upward motion

of air. Therefore, there must be a mechanism present to lift of air. Therefore, there must be a mechanism present to lift the air. Fronts often serve as such a mechanism. Air on the air. Fronts often serve as such a mechanism. Air on

one side of the front typically blows in a different direction one side of the front typically blows in a different direction from the wind on the other side, causing the air to from the wind on the other side, causing the air to

converge, or pile up right along the frontal surface. converge, or pile up right along the frontal surface.

How Does this affect me?How Does this affect me?

Convergence typical during Winter frontsConvergence typical during Winter fronts Convection typically during summer Convection typically during summer

afternoon over land and move towards afternoon over land and move towards water-Less predictablewater-Less predictable

Can get a combination of bothCan get a combination of both

Wind as a PredictorWind as a Predictor

Don’t be fooled by directionDon’t be fooled by direction– Sometimes wind will head toward the storm Sometimes wind will head toward the storm

(Remember the convergence model)(Remember the convergence model)

Look at movement of the cloudsLook at movement of the clouds Dead calm in the presence of Cumulus Dead calm in the presence of Cumulus

clouds indicate a severe thunderstorm soonclouds indicate a severe thunderstorm soon Wind direction coupled with different types Wind direction coupled with different types

of clouds can be a good predictorof clouds can be a good predictor

LightningLightning

If you hear thunder-High possibility of If you hear thunder-High possibility of lightning strikes at your positionlightning strikes at your position

Lightning can proceed the storm by a long Lightning can proceed the storm by a long timetime

Just because you have blue skies doesn’t Just because you have blue skies doesn’t mean that you are not in dangermean that you are not in danger

A number of strikes each year happen in A number of strikes each year happen in clear skiesclear skies

From video of a distant cloud-to-ground strike near Gothenburg, Nebraska: Frames 1 through 4 show the stepped leader descending

5 shows the intense first return stroke, Frame 6 shows the decaying first return stroke.

Strike PreventionStrike Prevention

Lower antennas, fishing rods, outriggers Lower antennas, fishing rods, outriggers etc.. For a lower profileetc.. For a lower profile

Don’t anchor near high items ie.markers, Don’t anchor near high items ie.markers, buoys, power lines etc….buoys, power lines etc….

Get to safe haven asap…Get to safe haven asap…

Surviving a StrikeSurviving a Strike

Have a bonded boatHave a bonded boat Keep clear of metal structures on boardKeep clear of metal structures on board Wear rubber soled shoes Wear rubber soled shoes

““Bonded Boat”Bonded Boat”

Major metal component are electrically Major metal component are electrically bonded to underwater hardware to create a bonded to underwater hardware to create a path for lightning dischargepath for lightning discharge

Bonding is normally thought of a way to Bonding is normally thought of a way to prevent galvanic corrosionprevent galvanic corrosion

Using heavy cable (8 gauge) gives a Using heavy cable (8 gauge) gives a adequate discharge pathadequate discharge path

Do’s and Don’ts in a ThunderstormDo’s and Don’ts in a Thunderstorm

Do slow down if visibility is poorDo slow down if visibility is poor Don’t anchor in a channel where you can be Don’t anchor in a channel where you can be

struck by another boaterstruck by another boater Do anchor from the bow is necessaryDo anchor from the bow is necessary Don’t anchor in a position where a slipping Don’t anchor in a position where a slipping

anchor will put you in a worse situationanchor will put you in a worse situation Do seek protected watersDo seek protected waters

FOGFOG

Fog-Fog-– Sea fogSea fog

Water is cold air is hotWater is cold air is hot You can look straight up and see blue skiesYou can look straight up and see blue skies Can last all day and start at anytimeCan last all day and start at anytime

– Thermal FogThermal Fog Air is cold water is hotAir is cold water is hot PredictablePredictable Will burn off after timeWill burn off after time

FogFog

Using a audible signaling device-Preferably a bellUsing a audible signaling device-Preferably a bell Proceed a speed based on your visibilityProceed a speed based on your visibility Zero visibility-HOLD your positionZero visibility-HOLD your position Use radar if you have itUse radar if you have it Listen carefully for breaking waves, other boats Listen carefully for breaking waves, other boats

etc….etc…. Have all the crew on watch in all directionsHave all the crew on watch in all directions Have the crew report in reference to a clock (Bow Have the crew report in reference to a clock (Bow

is 12:00) is 12:00)

Be SMARTBe SMART

Put lifejackets on early when conditions Put lifejackets on early when conditions deteriorate. deteriorate.

‘‘It’s better to be at the dock wishing you It’s better to be at the dock wishing you were out rather than being out wishing you were out rather than being out wishing you were at the dock”were at the dock”

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