Weather Research and Forecasting Advances for the

2002 Olympic Winter Games

W. James Steenburgh

Department of Meteorology andNOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional

PredictionUniversity of Utah

jimsteen@met.utah.edu

Acknowledgments

Tom Potter. CIRP Director/SLOC Weather Coordinator John Horel, Professor Steven Lazarus. Assistant Research Professor Daryl Onton. Postdoctoral Fellow Carol Ciliberti, Judy Pechmann, Mike Splitt, Bryan White.

Research Associates Grad & Undergrad Students Salt Lake City NWSFO staff and Western Region SSD personnel NWS/KSL Olympic Weather Support forecast team Dan Judd, Judd Communications MesoWest data providers and collaborators FSL developers of LDAD & FX-Net

Northern Utah topography

Great

Salt

LakeGreat Salt Lake

Desert

Stansbury Mts Oquirrh Mts

Wasatch R

ange

SLC

Olympic Region50 km

1500

275030003250

200022502500

1750

Elevation (m)

The 2002 Olympic region

Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G

Utah Olympic ParkBobsled, Luge, Skeleton,

Ski Jumping, Nordic Combined

Park CityAlpine GS, Snowboard GS

Snowboard Half Pipe

Deer ValleyAlpine Slalom, Aerials, Moguls

Soldier Hollow: Cross Country, Biathlon, Nordic Combined

Weather affects the Olympics

Competition delays & postponements Transportation (ground and air) Spectator safety & comfort Medical emergency response Security Venue engineering Environmental quality/air pollution Broadcasting/Ceremonies/

Look of the Games/Cultural Events

SLOC

UDOT

Specific weather concerns

Heavy snowfall produced by fronts, topography, and the “dreaded lake effect”

Wasatch Mts average 850-1300 cm (300-520”) of snow annually Alta averages 49 days per year with at least 12.5 cm of snowfall

Annual SWE (cm, colorfill) and snowfall (annotated)

5 13 20 25 30 40 50 75 100 150 200 250

Specific weather concerns

High winds at valley and mountain locations• Gap, downslope, or ridge-top winds; other terrain-induced

flows

Areas where strong ridge-top winds are a concern

Gap winds

Downslope winds

Ski Jump venue (sensitive to moderate winds and gusts)

Specific weather concerns

Valley inversions/cold pools• Fog (may be supercooled), poor visibility and air quality (PM-10)

Good Bad Ugly

Specific weather concerns

Extreme warm or cold temperatures Lightning Avalanches

Westwide Avalanche Network

B. Tremper

D. Judd

Past weather during the Olympic Period

2001•7. Icy roads led to numerous accidents in the Salt Lake Valley

2000•7. Record high temp (58F) at Heber. Little snow at X-C venue

1999•9-10. Hurricane force winds. Semis blown over on I-80.

1994• 10-11. Severe weather with lightning. Park City schools closed.•22. Snowstorm during commute- over 100 accidents. Airport runways closed

1993•18-21. Blizzard conditions. 50 car pileup near Point of the Mountain

1986•12-13. 2 feet of snow at Parley’s Summit with blizzard conditions

•14-18. Warm temperatures, warm heavy rains in valleys; heavy snow on slopes. Record high minimum temp (51F) at SLC

•19. 119 mph gust at Park City ski area. Morgan County declared a disaster area as a result of flooding

•24 Avalanches close Little Cottonwood

Recent Olympic weather forecasting advances

Atmospheric monitoring– Venue observations

– Regional weather network

Computer modeling– Integration of weather observations

– “High-resolution” forecasts

– Point-specific venue forecasts

Basic research– Lake-effect snowstorms

– Mountain snowfall

– Valley inversions/cold pools

Olympic venue observing network

Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G

Utah Olympic ParkBobsled, Luge, Skeleton,

Ski Jumping, Nordic Combined

Park CityAlpine GS, Snowboard GS

Snowboard Half Pipe

Deer ValleyAlpine Slalom, Aerials, Moguls

Soldier Hollow: Cross Country, Biathlon, Nordic Combined

Ownd by Forest Service Snowbasin, NOAA, U of Utah Ogden Peak (OGP) Wildcat (SWI) Middle Bowl (SNI) Strawberry Base (SB1) Strawberry Top (SB2) Along venue courses

– Mt Allen (SBB-top of men’s DH)– John Paul (SBW – mid course)– Shooting Star (SSS – mid course)– Base (SBE – finish/stadium)

SB1

SB2

SNI

SWI

OGP

SSS

SBE

SBW

SBB

(Photo: Mike Powell/ALLSPORT)

Venue observations at Snowbasin

Venue weather web interface

Collects and integrates observations from 2900 stations and over 70 organizations

Data processed with graphical products generated every 15 minutes

Olympic region and western US observing network (MesoWest)

278 stations in northern Utah Olympic region

Improves analysis and forecasting of regional and local weather systems

Olympic region and western US observing network (MesoWest)

Data assimilation and analysis

Surface temperature and wind flow

Weather conditions along I-80

Parley’s Canyon

SLC

High resolution computer modeling

3x daily 36-h forecasts at 4-km grid spacing detail future local weather conditions

36 km

12 km

4 km

Point-specific forecasts for 32 Venue and corridor locations

03/18 04/0604/00 04/12 05/0004/18

Combine high-resolution modeling and statistical techniques

Forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, wind, and precipitation every hour

Basic Research

Intermountain Precipitation Experiments (IPEX)

• Wasatch Mountain Winter Storms

Lake-effect snowstorms• Improved knowledge and

prediction

Vertical Transport and Mixing Program (VTMX)

• Meteorological conditions that affect air quality in the Salt Lake Valley

Sample of findings

Causes of lake-effect snowbands Structure of Wasatch Mountain winter storms

Snowbasin

Weber Canyon

Ogden Canyon

Weather Forecasting for the OlympicsA Team Effort

University of UtahForecast Support

KSL Forecast TeamVenue Forecasting

National Weather ServicePublic Forecasts/Warnings

What will be the legacy after the Olympics?

Improved weather monitoring and forecasting tools will continue to be used by the National Weather Service and other meteorolgists during all seasons

Improved knowledge of Intermountain weather

The Olympic experience will identify areas where observations, computer models, or understanding is needed to improve forecasting in the future

Accessing weather data, forecasts, and information

http://www.met.utah.edu/olympicshttp://www.saltlake2002.com