Data Team Observations – May 27, 2011

Data were reviewed by volunteers collegewide, comparing data used in 2008 as we wrote our plan with the most recent data available to us. The data sets are posted to the Big Meeting web page (both the 2008 data and the 2010-11 updates.)

In some cases, we were not able to obtain updated data.

Also, in some cases, there were no significant changes observed by those who reviewed the data, so there is no report.

All data files will be available on the Big Meeting 2010-11 web site, both the files from 2008 and the updated files from 2010-11.

The numbers used below refer to the numbers from the 2008 data review. Missing numbers indicate data sets for which we could not locate a 2010-11 update for comparison or for which either no report was submitted or no significant changes were noted by the reviewers.

In all cases, the observations are those of the reviewer, and have not been vetted with the larger team. In 2011-12, a team will review the data and prepare a new situational/needs analysis on which the 2013-18 plan will be based. The analysis will use the taxonomy as amended at the Fall 2010 meeting of the Goal Teams. Data reviewed were:

1- EAP Success Rates

3- College Budget Data and Tuition

4- International Student Enrollment

6- Competition and Dual Enrollment

8- Campus Growth Data

9- Earnings Data for Graduates

10- Placement Rate Data

11- Student Characteristics Report

12- Resource Development

13- Employee Data

14- Equity Report

15- Career Program Advisors Report

16- Accountability Data

18- National Higher Education Data

19- Construction Cost Data

24- Home Sales and Real Estate data

25- St. Johns Water Mgmt Growth Data

26- Economic Development Council reports

27- Community Conversation/Fall Forum Data30- High Tech Corridor Reports

31- Regional/National Employment Data

38- Census Data

39- School District data - Orange39 -School District data - Osceola

46- FACC/State Policy/Political Analysis

49 -Competition/Tech Center Analysis

53- CCSSE

Data 3 – College Budget Data – Lila RogersFrom: Lila Rogers Sent: Monday, May 23, 2011 9:13 AM

On the revenue side:Student fees 38.8% - 56.1%Fed stablztn 0% - 3.3%State funds 49.3% - 39.6%Other 3.7% - 1%

My comments –

Does anyone have a feel for the maximum that students will be able to pay through the fee system? At what point will student no longer be able to afford a community college? I believe that financial aid restrictions have become tougher – so I think there may be a maximum percentage that students will be able to pay.

Federal stabilization – How long does this last? Will it be available after the 2010-2011 school year? If not where will additional/auxiliary funding originate?

State funds – do we know if the state funding will continue to decline at the same rate it has for the last 3 years or will there be a more substantial drop due to the new governor?

Other – it has continued to decline – are there are ideas/plans to increase this category?

On the expense side:

Salaries 75.5% - 77.6%Expenses 23.6% - 19.1%Capital outlay 1.2% - 3.3%

My comments –

Salaries have remained flat over the period – is this feasible with the expansion planned at Lake Nona and Osceola? Expenses have consistently been reduced – are we are the bottom of our ability to reduce expenses or are there some pockets that can still be reduced while meeting our strategic goals?

Capital outlay – What are the plans for additional buildings/campuses in the future and how will they be funded?

These are some of my questions/observations; I’m not sure if someone has already thought of and answered all of these questions.

Please let me know if I need to expand or explain. Thanks for the opportunity. Lila Rogers

Data 3 – Budget Data – second reviewer – Shannon ScheidellFor every year except 2010-2011, the estimated revenue matches the expenditures.

The expenditures for 2010-2011 are $915,542 less than the revenue.

Will this be allocated toward building the two new campuses currently listed in the plan? Is the Lake Nona campus included or is this already figured in somewhere else?

Data 4 – International Student Enrollment – Michal EwingFrom: Michal Ewing Sent: Tuesday, May 10, 2011 2:49 PM

Susan,I reviewed the International Student Documents that you provided me last week.  Based on the data you sent me, I noticed the following:

Statistical History Documentso International Student Enrollment increased  from Fall 2005 to Fall

2007, then gradually tapered off through Fall 2009 (677, 761, 791, 762, 771).

o International Student Countries decreased between Fall 2005 and Fall 2009 (96, 92, 85, 76, 79).  These numbers vary slightly from printouts provided; Alys provided me updated numbers).

SEVIS/NonSEVIS Data (comparing Summer, Fall, Spring)o SEVIS Enrollment (F, M, & J Visas) is lowest in Summer Term,  increases

in Fall Term, then drops slightly in Spring Term.o NonSEVIS Enrollment (All other Visas) follows the same trend as SEVIS

enrollment.o SEVIS + NonSEVIS Enrollment follows the same trend as above.

SEVIS/NonSEVIS Data (comparing 4 Summer, 4 Fall, & 4 Spring terms)o Reporting Year 2008, 2009, 2010 (Summer, Fall, Spring) showed a

slight increase each term.o Reporting Year 2011 (Summer 2010, Fall 2010, Spring 2011) showed a

decrease in International Student Enrollment.

If you have any questions, just let me know. 

Data 4 – International Student Enrollment – Nancy MezaOverall Analysis for International Students:

Most international students at Valencia come from countries identified as emerging economies. Latino students are coming primarily from South America. Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela lead the list. Venezuela has been experiencing political and economic turmoil for several years. Brazil and Colombia share growing economies but both suffer from social inequalities and internal displacement of large numbers of people. Non western students are predominantly from India and Vietnam which are also emerging economies. It appears that the mix international students group identified above has remained constant since 2007. The number of enrolled students from other nations has not changed.

Fall End of Term: 2005/2006/2007/2008/2009

There is an increase of 11.81% in student enrollment from year 2006 to 2005. Student attendance was noticeable in Osceola campus and East campus. Osceola had a substantial increase of 28.94% followed by East Campus with an increase of 16.32%. Osceola campus located in Osceola County has a larger concentration of Hispanics.

However a slight increase of 3.94% from year 2007 to 2006 was mainly concentrated in West Campus. Osceola campus decreased students around 8.85%The number of international students at the Winter Park campus has remained constant. A negative increase of 3.17% impacts international student enrollment during Fall 2008. In East and Osceola campuses, the number of students decreased.

The sharp decline of enrollment in Fall 2008 is of 11.76%The growth of enrollment in Fall 2009 was insignificant, at 1.18%

Substantial changes in global economy directly impacts international students. Most of them come to Valencia because their families residing in the U.S.A. can sponsor them. Due to the dramatic unemployment in this country, students can no longer receive economic support to pay for their education. Valencia must strive to find ways to recruit and retain international students interested in Valencia’s careers. Valencia must have flexible plans for robust and weak economies. It seems to me, that Valencia was not prepared for the domestic financial crisis facing the nation, especially impacting Florida.

Sevis (Student and exchange visitor) VS Non-Sevis Student Enrollments:

Reports indicating students with certain visa types are somehow hard to interpret. The categories of “New” and “Returning Student” need to be clearly defined. Is Returning Student someone who withdrew classes and returned to finish? Reports don’t indicate if students graduated. I would assume they did it.

Additionally, the words “Sevis” and “Non-Sevis” do not have clear definition. I visited the “ice.gov” web page to gain a better understanding.

Overall, Summer 2008 to 2010 students with a “Non-Sevis” status appears to increase significantly compared to students in a “Sevis” status. “Non-Sevis” returning students almost doubled for the three consecutive years compared to the “Sevis” students.

Overall, total enrollment of international students on Spring 2011 experienced a dramatic decline of 17.48%. Non-Sevis “new students” accounted a negative growth of 55.00% and Sevis “new students” had a negative growth of 10.00%I conclude that Valencia has not fully implemented new ways to attract and recruit new students. Many International Students may experience a language barrier causing great learning distress. This could be intimidating and may lead to early drop off in classes. International Students should be able to access mental health services to ease their emotional distress. Valencia needs to monitor this population and ensure international students experience an easy transition in the educational system.

Data 6 – Competition and Dual Enrollment

I reviewed the data (how interesting!) and noticed two trends that caught my eye.

1) Our dual enrollment in Orange County has almost (or fully) doubled since 2007/2008. Particularly, the growth of dual enrollment on a Valencia site has grown significantly. I imagine part of this is related to the opening of the Lake Nona site…but not sure. There was not a corresponding growth of dual enrollment in Osceola County. Are we not targeting growth there? Is that county’s k-12 administration less interested in partnering for dual enrollment?

2) While completion rates have moved around just a bit (nothing seemed like a huge swing), I noticed that placement rates for most of the digital media, entertainment, graphics degrees and certificates dipped in the 08-09 year. There was not a corresponding dip in completion so it seems to me that we graduated more students than were placed in that general area.

Hope this helps – I enjoyed the opportunity!Amy Bosley

Data 9 – Earnings Data for Graduates – Cathy CampbellIn reviewing the annualized earnings for Valencia College graduates and completers, it is evident that high school and UCF baccalaureate graduate earnings have remained relatively static over the past three years with only single digit percentage increases. While Valencia College graduates and completers have increased their annualized earnings in the double digit percentage ranges. In the current economy, this is evidence that we are enabling them to compete successfully in the Central Florida economy. We have built successful pathways for our graduates and completers.

(On a side note, Technical Certificates should be included in the listing of pathways on page 38 the following statement:

“Build Pathways” has its roots in our “Start Right” goal, originally expressed in 2001, and in programs such as Student Success, LifeMap, Tech Prep, Dual Enrollment, College Reach Out (CROP), other College Transition Programs, and our on-going academic program review.

They are a significant option for students that enable them to compete by giving them short-term accomplishments to fuel the fire of their degree completion.)

Within the data on completions and program majors, Advanced Technical Certificates and Career Certificates (CJI) appear to be waning in participation. Is there something about the design of these programs that could improve or has this decline been due to economic influences? Most educational programs perform opposite to the economy, why haven’t these programs followed the trends? Is there something that we can do to improve the numbers? Wages for these programs have increased over time, so the students in the programs are still successful. Perhaps, investing in the Faculty and Program Directors of these programs in a targeted version of the Focus on the Workplace program would be a way to look into the outcomes and how they relate to guiding the college’s efforts.

The learning environments at Valencia College produced nearly 10,000 graduates and completers in 2009/2010. This seventeen percent increase in five years is significant of the workload we are all feeling. We should continue in being empowered with this role of service (whatever one’s place in the college is) not for our own benefit, but to serve. The service is evident as our placement rates are on average 96%. That means that roughly 9,600 graduates and completers are placed in their field with an average annualized salary of $40,000. We are making great contributions to our community and our society as a whole. We have served and poured into the life of over 16,000 program majors, our fellow Central Floridians, and with that begins the outward movement of a series of waves. We are impactful.

Data 10 – Placement rate data – Diane Dalrymple

From: Diane Dalrymple Sent: Friday, May 20, 2011 10:55 AMTo: Susan KelleySubject: RE: Data for Review for College Planning Council

Susan,

After comparing the reports you provided to Valencia’s goals and objectives, I’m happily optimistic that we, as an institution, are on the right path. 

One positive indicator that caught my eye was the 5-year average overall placement rate at 96% of the Completer Placement Rates for AS/AAS, Technical Certificates, and Career Certificates. 

In fact, I found the overall document, Placement Rates – Summary and 5-Year Average of Completer Placement Rates to be very useful.  This report can help us focus on both areas of goal confirmation and possible improvement.  Such as, the placement rates in the Medical Information Coder/Biller program do not seem as consistently high as other programs. 

In order to support Valencia’s Goal 4: Partner with the Community, Valencia should research the potential available to serve both the graduates and the community.  As with this example, Valencia can always continue to target other possible areas for improvement.

Please let me know if you would like any further comment.  I found the reports very uplifting.

Diane         

Data 11 – Student Characteristics Report – Linda DowningStudent Characteristics Observations

Rate of growth from year to year has slowed somewhat, but we always have experience growth in cyclical patters.We are becoming more diverse through enrollment growth in our Latino and African American populations although there is significant campus to campus difference that appears related to the communities they serve. The percentage of students who enter Valencia as transfer students has increased.The number of students enrolling from outside our service district has decreased significantly.Enrollment of recent high school graduates has gone from a 3% annual increase to a 5.4% DECREASE. This is significant and we need to learn more about why.We are losing enrollment in recent high school graduates from high schools serving high percentages of low income and minority students.

Summary:

Goal One, especially objective 1.1, compels us to more fully understand all aspects of what drives high school graduation and college entrance in our service district. We need to know more about trends in our high schools to understand what is behind the changes in the enrollment patterns of the high school graduates. For example, while high school graduation rates have improved remarkably in both counties, college enrollment rates have declined as minority membership and number qualifying for free and reduced lunch has increased. These public school trends appear to be reflected in our own Student Characteristics data.Is there a connection to the increase in transfer admission? Are students being pushed to enroll elsewhere, having a difficult experience, then transferring back to Valencia? If so, how could we learn more about that? Could we do anything about it?

What data could we be collecting that would better inform us of what drives an Orange or Osceola student to not go to college? While we have a variety of studies to reference, we have little data on our own prospective students. Should we expand our potential to collect and analyze data on prospective students?

Data 12 – Resource Development – Shelby FiorentinoTotal Award $ dollar wise does not look significant, but funding rate seems significant with 24% decrease

New grants - while % approved makes it look like a noticeable decrease, when you look at the numbers it looks good with an increased # approved % low because of so many more requested.

Continuation grants – significant in that we have none.

Total assets have gone up, but not significantly  unless you consider the 2009 $$$.

Data 13 – Employee Data – Damarais FernandezExecutive/Administrative/Managerial Staff:

College Employment Equity Accountability Plan

When compared to Census - Grad. Deg. and Higher find no significant changes in total number of employees in each category, except total white females has increased from 45.0% in 2009-10 to 50.7% in 2010-11 (27 to 34 respectively) for a 5.7% increased in the last year, placing all other groups in a much lower % Dif 2009-10/2010-2011.

College Instructional Staff:

No significant changes.

Full Time Continuing Contract Instructional Staff:

No significant changes.

Data 18 – National Higher Education Data – Dr. Bob Gessner

The gist of the articles was that total undergraduate enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions has generally increased since 1970 and that from 2008 until 2019 (when the projected estimates end) the trend is expected to continue.

- Both female enrollment and male enrollment are anticipated to rise from 2007-2019; with female enrollment rising faster than male enrollment.

- Both full time and part time enrollment are expected to rise from 2007-2019; with full time enrollment expected to rise more than part time enrollment.

- Undergraduate enrollment in 2 year institutions is expected to continue to rise, but not as rapidly as growth is expected at 4 year institutions.

- Enrollment in public institutions is expected to rise and maintain approximately 78% of undergraduate enrollments over private institutions (which it is now).

- The percentage of full time instructional faculty and staff who teach distance education courses is greater at public institutions offering primarily associate’s degrees and certificates that at any other types of institutions. (no predications were made about any trends for the future in this indicator)

Data 19 – Construction Cost Data – Keith Houck

I suggest you stop the sentence (above, from the 2008 report) after “expected:”. Delete the remainder of the sentence and replace it with, “Now that the economy is turning around, costs are quickly raising again.”

On the page titled #19 – Construction Costs for College Facilities”, the data is dated. It either ends at 2004 or 2006. I suggest that we modify the last paragraph as follows.

. . . existing facilities and, design and construct more economical facilities in the future. Also, the mode of delivery may need to change to provide more hybrid and online classes to minimize the need for space.

Data 24 – Home Sales and Real Estate Data – Jessica KingFrom: Jessica King Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 6:02 PMTo: Susan KelleySubject: RE: Data for review for College Planning Council

Hi Susan,

I’m going to start by relaying the significant trends I noticed with the housing data you sent me and then follow-up with possible implications to the Strategic Goals.

In regards to home sales, the number of units sold each month has remained fairly steady throughout 2010 and remains significantly higher than indicated in the 2007-2008 data with significant growth in Orange and Osceola Counties.

Median home prices appear to be following the national trends at approximately $50,000 below the national median price. In 2008, Orlando area median home prices also followed the national trends, but were only $35,000 lower than the national median price. We are keeping with the national trends, but are further behind than we were 2 years ago.

In regards to apartment vacancies and rent prices, things appear to have evened out between 2008 and 2010. There has been a light increase in the Percent of vacancies which has resulted in a slight decrease in rent. The peak of vacancies was in 2009.

Based on the indicated trends, I would anticipate the following in regards to the strategic goals:1. Goal 1

a. Objective 1.1- an increase in student population- particularly in Osceola County. Depending on demographics of homeowners, this may be prolonged.

b. Objective 1.3- The sociologist in me sees a red flag in response to the number of foreclosures in our community. The foreclosures were not in my data pack, the drastic drop in median and average home prices, along with media coverage shows that many of the homes being purchased now are “distressed sales.” The message is being VERY clearly sent that when things get tough (whether with paying a mortgage or passing algebra) it is OK to walk away.

2. Goal 4a. Objective 4.1- The “evening out” of the housing market implies a general leveling out of

the economy. As the population becomes more stable, they will begin spending more money- hopefully on donations to Valencia.

b. Objective 4.2- See abovec. Objective 4.4- If we assume that the indicated leveling out of the housing market

transfers to the business world, we can anticipate that businesses will invest more by hiring more employees and training. Valencia Enterprises should be increasingly aware of the demands of the workforce community and be prepared to meet those demands.

Please let me know if you have any questions or need any clarification.

Thank you for the opportunity to help with this project!

Thank You,

Jessica Eson King, MAAdministrative AssistantSAGE and Assessment

Data 25 – St. John’s Water Management Growth data – Debi JakubcinFrom: Debi Jakubcin Sent: Tuesday, May 10, 2011 12:54 PMTo: Susan KelleySubject: RE: Data for Review for College Planning Council

Susan,

I reviewed the data from the St. John’s Water Management District and I didn’t see anything at all that would justify considering any change in our strategic plan.  It was interesting information and I enjoyed the opportunity to contribute.

Thanks.

Debi

Debi Jakubcin, MAWellness Programs Collegewide

Data 26 – Economic Development Council Reports – Donna KosloskiGood Afternoon Susan,

After reviewing the attached documents, #26-“Economic Development Commission”, it did jump out that the unemployment rate from 2008 compared to 2009, 2010, and the second quarter of 2011 was much lower. We might want to take a look at this data in guiding our strategic goals, work, and plan.

Although Metro Orlando’s unemployment rate is declining it is still higher than the national average and just under the Florida average. This may impact the College’s strategic plan and goals.

The other documents on average salary and commute time to work did not warrant a look.  Have a great afternoon and weekend.

Donna J. Kosloski, MSLTechnical Director, Information Systems | Institutional ResearchValencia Community College | 1800 S. Kirkman Road, Orlando, FL  32811dkosloski@valenciacollege.edu  | 407-582-1345

Data 30 – High Tech Corridor Reports – Josh Murdock

The number of companies following into the Technology Sectors has grown tremendously in the 23 County Florida High Tech Corridors from 7,600 Companies (2007) to 11,588 (2011).

The overall variety of industries seem very similar in the Florida High Tech Corridor with one new area in 2011 taking a huge leap as part of the industry clusters – 40.22% are Financial Services. This industry wasn’t even mentioned as a part of the 2007 Facts sheet.

Information Technologies industry had a growth in the percentage of employees in 2011 (21.70%) from 2007 (9.0%) related to Data Processing, Hosting & Related Services.

Medical Technologies industry had a growth in the percentage of employees in 2011 (26.20%) from 2007 (13.0%) related to Surgical & Medical Instrument Manufacturing.

A few of the 2011 industries discusses as other technologies categories not mentioned in 2007 report were Media, Research & Engineering, and Telecom.

Data 38 – Census Data – Noelia Maldonado

2009 Census Data

Education: Percentage of residents with a high

school graduate or higher by countyo Orange – 86.7%o Osceola – 84.0%o Seminole – 90.6%

Percentage of residents with a bachelor’s degree or higher by county:

o Orange – 29.6%o Osceola – 18.5%o Seminole – 33.2%

Household Income: Median household income by county:

o Orange – $57,738o Osceola – $50,265o Seminole – $58,313

Mean household income by county:o Orange – $77,244o Osceola – $61,973o Seminole – $76,651

2006 Census Data

Education: Percentage of residents with a high

school graduate or higher by countyo Orange – 85.8%o Osceola – 82.4%o Seminole – 91.9%

Percentage of residents with a bachelor’s degree or higher by county:

o Orange – 27.3%o Osceola – 19.8%o Seminole – 33.3%

Household Income: Median household income by county:

o Orange – $44,236o Osceola – $41,035o Seminole – $52,299

Mean household income by county:o Orange – $59,676o Osceola – $51,635o Seminole – $67,899

Comparison 2006 vs. 2009:

Both Orange (+0.9) and Osceola (+1.6) counties saw an increase in percentage points for high school graduates since 2006. Seminole (-1.3) county had a decrease in high school graduates.

Orange (+2.3) county saw an increase in percentage points for bachelors or higher education since 2006. Both Osceola (-1.3) and Seminole (-0.1) counties decreased.

The median household income increased for all three counties; Orange (+30.52%), Osceola (+22.49%), Seminole (+11.50%)

The mean household income increased for all three counties; Orange (+29.44%), Osceola (+20.02%), Seminole (+12.89%)

Data 39 – Orange County School District Data – Lisa MaconFrom: Lisa Macon Sent: Wednesday, May 18, 2011 2:53 PMTo: Susan KelleySubject: RE: Thank you so much

I’ve read the five PDFs for my data study. I don’t think they imply any changes to the current strategic goals. However, everything within presents a view that performance for OCPS students has been on a steady rise. If that’s the case, it would seem that we should expect fewer students in the 5-10 year future that need remediation. Of course, we have not seen evidence of this yet. We are seeing now the kids who, in large percentage, bombed the FCAT in 3rd grade in 2001. Hopefully, by the time we see the ones who are succeeding in far greater numbers come 2021 or so, we will need to rethink our prep programs and perhaps put more energy and resources into college-level course planning for OCPS graduates.

It’s hard to know, but it is clear from the reports that test scores have risen in the county, so we should be thinking about what that means for us going forward, 5-10 years down the line.

That’s my over-arching conclusion of the data. If you’re wanting more detail, please let me know. I’m happy to help in any way!

Lisa

Data 39 – Osceola School District Data – Angie Riquelme

Although I am not sure whether or not a separate data set exists for home-schooled students, my first suggestion would be to consider those learners with regards to our objectives.

I also believe it is important to consider the needs of incoming ESE students. Osceola’s report indicates that they have 13%, which are approximately 6800 learners. Granted, only a percentage of those students may attend Valencia, but still, we should consider ways we can improve upon and/or expand the services OSD offers college-wide.

Given that 50% of the students are Hispanic, I believe planning for their recruitment and retention should include information about potential careers and available financial aid options. (Are we able to secure funding that is race/ethnicity specific?)

Is there a way for Valencia to assist in preparing those students who are in ESOL classes towards a proficiency which enables them to begin courses towards their chosen degree right from the beginning?

I also noticed that 1219 Osceola teachers have a Master’s Degree or above – some may be interested in adjunct positions with the college. I also thought a good idea would be to offer one of our Student Success courses at the High Schools, using those teachers. The course would help HS students decide upon their degree programs and career paths before they even got to Valencia, giving them their first 3 college credits in the process.

Also, those same teachers might be able to lead workshops that prepare students for college, especially in the Mathematics and Science areas. Science seems to be an area which can be improved upon. Nursing and Allied Health Sciences are programs which require A&P, etc. – perhaps preparing students to excel in those areas will help us recruit them for those degrees as well.

Data 42 – Program Review Data – Joyce RomanoProgram Review Data Observations

From Dr. Joyce RomanoMay 2011

SUS Data for 2009-10:

There were 29 discipline groupings – 4 more (16% increase) from 2004-05. SUS Native GPAs were higher than Valencia AA grads in 72% of the disciplines. Valencia AA grads GPAs were higher in architecture, education, engineering technology, ethnic/cultural studies, foreign language, public affairs and unclassified area of study.

SUS Native grad rates were higher than Valencia AA grads in 86% of the disciplines. This is 11% higher than in 2004-05. Valencia AA grad rates were higher in architecture, criminal justice, engineering technology, and liberal arts. AA Grad rates were 30% or higher in agriculture, architecture, criminal justice, and engineering technology. This is a change in high performing disciplines from 2004-05 (see previous analysis).

The average grad rate of Valencia AA students was 6.5% lower than the average SUS native student. This is an increase from 2004-05 when the gap was 4%.

The average total credit hours for Valencia AA students was 145 credits (9.1 credits more than SUS native students). This is one credit hour above the “excess hours” standard of 144 credits (120% of 120 hours) that was in effect until 2011 and 7 credit hours above the new standard (2011-12) of 138 (115% of 120).

UCF Data for 2007-08:

There were 21 discipline groupings – 3 more (16.7% increase) from 2004-05. UCF Native GPAs were higher than Valencia AA grads in 90% of the disciplines (19).

Valencia AA grads GPAs were higher in education and law/legal studies. The average GPA of Valencia AA grads was 2.87, only 0.24 less than UCF natives.

UCF Native grad rates were higher than Valencia AA grads in all but one discipline (physical sciences). This is a continuing downward trend from 2000-01 when Valencia grad rates were higher in 61% of the disciplines and in 2004-05 when Valencia grad rates were higher in 17% of the disciplines. Valencia AA grad rates were 30% or higher in criminal justice, law/legal studies, physical science and psychology. The average grad rate of Valencia AA students was 6.5% lower than the average UCF native student. This is an increase from 2004-05 when the gap was 2%.

The average total credit hours for Valencia AA students was 146.2 credits (13.5 credits more than UCF native students about the same as in 2004-05). This is 2.2 credit hours

above the “excess hours” standard of 144 credits (120% of 120 hours) that was in effect until 2011 and 8,2 credits above the new standard (2011-12) of 138 credits (115% of 120).

Observations: Majors of Valencia AA grads at the university and UCF are increasing/diversifying.

This has implications for the multiple “pathways” that we must build for students to follow.

The “gap” between grad rate and average credit hours for Valencia AA grads and SUS and UCF native students widened since 2004-05. This may be due to the increase in SUS and UCF selectivity for entering native students.

We can target specific disciplines with relatively lower grad rates at UCF/SUS to focus on specific articulation and transition issues our graduates are facing. Direct Connect is the best place to start this analysis and conversation with our university partner.

On average, Valencia AA grads do not experience “excess hours” penalties at the SUS or UCF.

Valencia Long Range Trends – 1998 - 2010Enrollment continued to grow in “double digits” and even more sharply between 2008-2010. Students attending full time increased (43%).

Student median age remained about the same (21) as did average credit hour load (9.3).African- American (16.6%) and Hispanic (27.5%) student populations increased in proportion to Caucasian students (39.2%).

Proportion of AA program students continued to decline in relation to AS program students.

Dual enrollment and international students increased.

The overall number of full time faculty and staff increased but the proportion of courses taught by full time faculty decreased (to 48.3% in 2009-10).

The operating budget increased by 15% from 2008 to 2010.

Financial aid awards (42.5%) and funds (62%) increased dramatically between 2008 and 2010.

High school graduates enrolling at Valencia in the Fall following graduation increased to 34.2% of our service district graduates.

New students requiring developmental education courses decreased to 27.2% (writing), 35.8% (reading), and 38.6% (math). The mix of new students by levels of developmental education required on entry into Valencia has not changed much (27% college ready, 25% one discipline, 23% two disciplines, 25% three disciplines).

Student completion of the developmental education sequence in two years increased to 76.1% (reading), 72.7% (writing) and 57.8% (math) from the 40-50% range in 1996. Fall to Spring and Fall to Fall persistence of new students has continued to increase to 86.2 and 67%, respectively (from 76.9% and 56.8% in 1998). The number of graduates increased dramatically (6,335 in 2009-10).Graduation rates increased to 27.8% (from 18.5%).

Observations: Our enrollment continues to reflect the diversity and growth of our community.

Enrollment growth has outpaced the growth of college resources; one effect of this is an increase in proportion of courses taught by part-time faculty and disproportionate increase of part time staff. This increases the importance of professional development programs, particularly for part-time faculty and staff, in order to ensure quality and understanding/support of Valencia’s learning college culture.

With the increase in tuition as a proportion of college revenue, more students are using financial aid (and loans) to enroll at Valencia. Financial literacy programs are critical to ensure that students can support their families and manage their debt when they complete a Valencia degree.

A greater proportion of students are experiencing success at Valencia as evidenced by increase in persistence, completion of developmental education, and graduation rates. While these are on a positive trend, we continue in our commitment to increasing the proportion of students who experience success.

Data 46 – State of Florida Policy Analysis – Brad HoniousI have reviewed the reports and did not see anything significant that changed.  I do want to make a few points concerning aid programs which I think will be helpful:

There has been a significant decrease in Bright Futures funding ($77 per credit hour in 2010-2011 to $62 in 2011-2012 for the FMS our largest program)

2 Pell grants in an award year is eliminated with the 2011-2012 academic years

o There are proposals in the US House to decrease the maximum Pell grant for 2012-2013

o This may have a significant impact on summer enrollment in 2012 and beyond

Academic Competitiveness Grants are eliminated with the 2011-2012 academic years

SEOG has been decreased with a loss of $45,000 in supplemental grants for Valencia students

Students will be required to pay more for college with less financial aid opportunities.  This may require students to borrow more student loans. 

o Default rates are going to be measured in 3-year periods instead of 2-year periods.  Sanctions will be applied in the 2014-2015 academic year

o This, I believe makes financial literacy very important on college campuses

o These are access, retention (progression), and completion issues which we must address

There seems to be a significant shift nationally and in the state from postsecondary education being a public good to a private good.  Thus student will need to pick up more of the cost.

I have attached two documents which you might want to add to our documentation. 

Federal Student Financial Aid: 2011 National Profile of Programs in Title IV of the Higher Education Act

Memo from Florida Department of Education: 2011 Florida Legislative Session Update for State Scholarships and Grant Programs

Data 49 – Tech Center Reports - Jeannie Rodriguez

Based on the data I briefly reviewed, there are significant changes that deserve our attention as they should impact our thinking about our Strategic plan. Below I’ve listed changes that I felt are significant and as such have categorized them as being either negative or positive.

Negative Changes:

The negative implications of the things listed below are that prospective students will be drawn to other institutions because they offer programs that we do not provide. Prospective students will be drawn to these programs instead of Valencia as a starting point in pursuing any higher educational goals which is contrary to our BHAG #3. We are not effectively building pathways in regards to these areas.

Westside Tech now offers programs that involve the growing fields of alternative energy (e.g. Solar Energy Technology, Solar Thermal System Design). The need for sustainability is ever present in our community, and has been growing on our own campus since 2005 helping us “Partner with the Community.”

Orlando Tech now offers a 3-D Animation program. Valencia offers one class on Gaming Programming (CAP 2023). Also, since UCF offers a couple of BFA’s in Animation some prospective students that: are interested in that field/have taken the Orlando Tech program/are already in the field, may be inclined to completely bypass Valencia.

WP Tech-Avalon Park now offers a program on SMART Home/Mobile Technology.

Positive Changes:

The positive implications of the things listed below are that prospective students do not have as many institutions to choose from if they are looking for these particular fields. However, Valencia can meet the needs of these people with articulation agreements with other institutions or with our own programs.

Administrative Assistant programs were dropped at Mid-Florida Tech and Westside Tech. Legal Administrative Specialist programs were dropped at Lake Technical Center and

Winter Park Tech. Cosmetology programs were dropped at Lake Technical Center and Winter Park Tech. Business Computer Programming (Computer Programming) programs were dropped at

Mid-Florida Tech and Winter Park Tech. Network Support Services program was dropped at Winter Park Tech.

Other Info Presented

The fact that Sumter County does not have a Tech Center or any Tech Center programs at this time means that there is a population of people that have a need that can only be met by traveling to neighboring counties, like Lake. Valencia could serve some of this population if there was a campus toward the western part of Lake County which would also be convenient for Lake County residents that cannot commute to the Lake Technical Center because of its distance.