THE INSIDE SCOOP ON CONSUMER ICE CREAM TRENDS

Devon Flinn and Mariah WardDr. Lascu

Changing Consumer CultureDecember 6, 2014Table of Contents

I. Introduction and Purpose of Study - 3

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II. Literature Review - 4

III. Data Collection Methods - 8

IV. Data Analysis - 11

V. Findings and Conclusions - 18

VI. Appendix - 21

I. Introduction and Purpose of Study

Ice cream is a delectable frozen treat that has become a customary dessert worldwide.

Whether it be for emotional comfort or sheer enjoyment, indulgence is a primary motivation for

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people to consume ice cream. There seems to be a constant inner battle within the consumer.

Will ice cream always be a guilty pleasure that people continue to consume despite the recent

health revolution? Or instead, will people modify their patterns to consume types of ice cream

that conform to their healthier lifestyle? Will some people cut ice cream out of their diets alto-

gether?

Amidst the health revolution that has become the norm in modern culture, the market has

witnessed a demand for products with healthier ingredients. Furthermore, a significant percent-

age of consumers demand healthier options, such as smaller portion sizes and lower levels of fat

and calories. Nevertheless, consumers are screaming for ice cream. Producers are beginning to

explore the use of high-end ingredients that appeal to the appetite of the consumer. In order to

cater to these desires, manufacturers are constantly trying to produce new flavors and types of ice

cream, experimenting with diverse ingredients and recipes.

In order to investigate this fascinating phenomenon, we are going to observe shoppers at

Martin’s Food Market in Richmond, VA. We will take note of the date and time of day because

this plays a role in the types of consumers who will be shopping at the grocery store. As cus-

tomers come into the frozen food section of the grocery store, we will slyly take note of their ba-

sic information, including gender, approximate weight, age, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and

marital status. Noting their gender will help us make conclusions on the differences or similari-

ties in the shopping patterns of female and male ice cream consumers. Their age and marital sta-

tus is also significant to our study because their age will help us determine the types of con-

sumers each brand or type of ice cream attracts and their marital status will help us determine if

the consumer is buying for themselves or for potential families. In order to comprehend the se-

lection process that the consumer undergoes at the store, we will also record the number of prod-

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ucts they look at on the shelf and amount of time they spend selecting their product. This will

help determine how brand loyal they are as an ice cream consumer. Lastly, we will document the

type of ice cream (either gelato, low-fat, sherbet, frozen yogurt or regular) that the consumer se-

lects. At the conclusion of our observations, we hope to make connections between the various

types of people and the types of ice cream they choose to enjoy. From there, we will be able to

determine the current market trends in the ice cream industry.

II. Literature Review

Our Project

For our project, we observed shoppers at the local Martin’s Food Market in Richmond,

VA. Our focus was on the different types of ice cream or frozen yogurt that each consumer pur-

chased. Our goal from collecting data was to make connections between the various types of

people and the types of ice cream they choose to enjoy. We also wanted to see if the frozen yo-

gurt revolution has inspired consumers to select different frozen yogurt treats over the classic,

traditional ice cream that has been around for years.

History of the Industry

In the 1950s and 1960s, the widespread establishment of supermarkets and specialty ice

cream stores had significantly changed ice cream merchandising--consumers could now purchase

packaged ice cream to take home (Davis 2009). This revolution created a market for ice cream to

be sold at grocery stores.

Industry Profile

First, analysts look at the market value, or the price an asset would make in the market-

place. “The ice cream market grew by 2.2% in 2012 to reach a value of $11,137,600 in 2014”

(Marketline 2014). This statistic is not very exciting. The industry has been relatively stagnant

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with a slight hint of growth over time. This implies a relatively flat or declining per capita con-

sumption of the individual product categories. “By 2017, the market is estimated to increase by

8.2% to an approximate value of $12,054,600. The market volume, which is the total amount of

transactions observed over a period of time, grew by 1.1% to reach an overall volume of

3,705,500 liters. Experts forecast that it will increase by 5.2% to a volume of 3,896,700 liters by

2017” (Marketline 2014).

Differentiation

Ice cream can be differentiated into many categories, including fat content, texture, fla-

vors, sweetness, prices, demographics, and location.

Types of Ice Cream

Depending on the source, ice cream can be separated into many categories. However the

main categories are full fat, low fat, sherbet, frozen yogurt, and other novelty items (Da Silva

2014).

Frozen Yogurt Phenomenon

Frozen yogurt has recently sprung up as a very popular type of frozen dessert. In compar-

ison to the quiet ice cream industry, it seems that frozen yogurt shops have been popping up on

every corner as of late. “At the end of 2013, there were an estimated 2,582 frozen yogurt stores in

the US. That is more than twice the number of shops that existed in 2008” (Vandermey 2014).

This statistic emphasizes the recent growth of options that are comparable to ice cream. History

does not bode well for frozen yogurt. Even at its peak popularity in 1992, the yogurt craze did

not come anywhere near the high level of ice cream consumption (Vandermey 2014).

Consumer Demographics

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Two determinants for purchase in the ice cream industry are “price and consumer in-

come” (Cadena 2012). Overall, people who live in the southern region of the United States have

a lower purchasing frequency than people in other regions of the country (Grunert 2006). Addi-

tionally, “households with fewer people reported the highest levels of ice cream purchases,

whereas households of five or more people purchase more novelties. Older people are more in-

clined to purchase ice cream, and younger people are more inclined to purchase novelty goods”

(Cadena 2012).

Distribution

Distribution channels are complicated because it is (by nature) hard to transport ice

cream. Storage is also more expensive because the good must remain frozen. Although ice cream

is distributed through many channels, “the ice cream purchased at the grocery store makes up

64.5% of the market’s total value” (Marketline 2014). These food retailers are clearly the main

buyers, and they exert strong buyer power, particularly within large chains. Consequently, the

prices that the manufacturers have to pay is forced down.

Leading Players

The top four players who sell ice cream in grocery stores include “Unilever, Nestle, Blue

Bell Creameries, and Turkey Hill Dairy” (Marketline 2014). Consumers have high degrees of

brand loyalty. However, it is easy for the consumer to switch between different manufacturers’

products; the products are, after all, side-by-side on the shelves of the store. Therefore, packag-

ing is an important input in this industry.

Global Outlook

“The United States accounts for 18.9% of the global ice cream market value” (Da Silva

2014). This is a relatively large portion of the market; in fact, Americans now eat more ice cream

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than any other nation. For this reason, there are a large number of competitors and strong incum-

bents within the industry. This factor increases competition. Ice cream is a very stable compo-

nent of the US dairy industry.

Substitutes

There are a number of substitutes for commercially-available ice cream. Such frozen

desserts include “sorbets, gelato, frozen yogurt, confectionery, and smoothies. The threat is as-

sessed by professionals as moderate” (Marketline 2014).

The Influence of Health Consciousness

Individual makers of ice cream appeal to customers (more so than large brands) because

they stress their natural ingredients and high quality products. Scientists “protective technique-

suitable tools” for revealing how consumers view and perceive undefined concepts, such as func-

tional ice cream (Da Silva 2014). Many new studies seek the nutritional enrichment and/or re-

duced calorie count of ice cream while maintaining sensory quality in order to change the stereo-

type that ice cream is just a treat. People are attempting to make it more healthy and nutritious so

that is may be associated with good eating habits. There is an increasing interest regarding the

impact of diet on health and the quality of life of consumers in relation to the food they are intak-

ing. Brands seek to meet a market increasingly interested in healthier food options. “The health-

claims that brands make about their products are a response to consumers’ interest in health by

conveying messages about product specific benefits that potentially add value to the products”

(Urala 2003). The perception of nutritional value is important in the selection of food by con-

sumers, where high quality nutrients are most influential in their purchasing decisions. “The In-

ternational Dairy Foods Association claims that sales of high fat ice cream are going down, while

sales of low fat ice cream are steadily increasing” (Davis 2009). Ice cream is very popular today.

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Nevertheless, “the average American will consume ice cream 28.5 times this year, which is down

45% from the level it was at 25 years ago” (Marketline 2014). Although the ice industry is

slowly increasing today, this statistic points to the new health-conscious revolution that is cur-

rently sweeping the nation. The public is seeking out lower-fat, lower-sugar treats.

The higher quality of the products is, unfortunately, accompanied by higher prices as well. Fur-

thermore, margins may be higher with large companies because they have mass marketed prod-

ucts.

III. Data Collection Methods

In order to collect our quantitative data, we went to the local Martin’s Food Market in

Richmond, VA on a Saturday morning in late October. We created a template (see appendix) that

we used to take notes on each of the 30 ice cream consumers that we observed in the frozen

desserts isle. As stated in our introduction, we learned that the most important data that we would

observe from the each individual consumer is their age, gender, marital status, and how many

products the consumer looked at before choosing one. These were the most important observa-

tions because they related to the two main questions we asked ourselves as we collected data:

will ice cream always be a guilty pleasure despite the recent health revolution? Or will people

consume frozen desserts that conform to their healthier lifestyle?

For our qualitative research, we conducted interviews in order to gain insight into what

the consumer was looking for in the frozen dessert market. In these interviews, we wanted to un-

cover what consumers thought about the differences between frozen yogurt and regular ice

cream. We chose to focus solely on frozen yogurt and regular ice cream because through our re-

search, we found out that frozen yogurt and regular ice cream are the two main players in the

frozen dessert industry.

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First, we interviewed a 19 year-old University of Richmond field hockey player. The

first question we asked her was, “When you go to a grocery store, do you consider your health

when buying ice cream?” This question took into account that the consumer being interviewed is

a college athlete and therefore takes into consideration her diet more often than most other con-

sumers. The second question we asked was, “Do you buy frozen yogurt when you go to the gro-

cery store?” The athlete’s response to the first question highlighted the fact that she considers ice

cream to be a treat, not something that she would look to buy as another factor of her healthy

diet. Her response to the second question was that if she were looking to purchase frozen yogurt

instead of ice cream, she would purchase it at a frozen yogurt shop rather than the frozen dessert

isle of the grocery store. This is important because it show how consumers view these two types

of frozen desserts. People tend to associate ice cream more with the grocery store than they do

with frozen yogurt.

Our second interviewee was also a 19 year-old University of Richmond student, however,

she is not a part of any collegiate athletic teams. The first question we asked her was, “If you

went to a grocery store, would you buy Ben & Jerry’s regular ice cream or Ben & Jerry’s frozen

yogurt?” Her response was that she would choose the frozen yogurt option because, “it tastes the

same as regular ice cream but it is healthier for you.” Her response shows that the younger gener-

ation, specifically the millennials, who are concentrated on leading healthier lifestyles, would

rather consume the healthier frozen dessert option over regular ice cream. The second question

we asked her was, “What would your mom buy if she had those two, same options?” The inter-

viewee said that her mom would most definitely buy ice cream over frozen yogurt because that is

something she has always done. This helped us determine that people with families tend to buy

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ice cream because they are looking to please a larger audience and ice cream is something that

every family member would enjoy.

Our third and fourth interviews involved one male adult and one female adult. It is impor-

tant to note that both adults have families. We asked them a similar question: “When you go to

the grocery store, do you typically buy the traditional, full-fat and full-sugar ice cream products

or the healthier options such as low-fat or frozen yogurt product?” Both adults answered with the

regular ice cream products because they “always make sure to have a container of ice cream in

their house because it was what their parents bought when they were growing up and it is what

their children are used to now as well.” Their responses are important to our conclusions about

ice cream and frozen yogurt because both of the adult consumers state the fact that ice cream is a

family tradition and frozen yogurt is not something that can be a substitute for it.

IV. Data Analysis

Graph A.

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The graph above (graph A) depicts the percentage of frozen dessert consumers at the

Martin’s Food Market in which we observed customers. It shows that 83% of the observed con-

sumers were females, while only 17% of the consumers were males.

Research proves that females on the whole tend to be more brand loyal. When they walk

into the grocery store, they typically know which type of product they are interested in purchas-

ing. While observing female customers, we noted that they were less likely to look at different

products on the shelf. Rather, they quickly approached the frozen dessert section and, without

looking at other products, selected the good they would be consuming. This proves that females

are more brand loyal. Furthermore, females are more health conscious. Of the women who were

consuming healthy and comparable products to ice cream, most of them were women. These

women are more willing to change their eating habits, diets, and lifestyles due to the healthy-eat-

ing mindset that has infiltrated the minds of many Americans. Lastly, women are tend to be asso-

ciated with families. Many of these women, especially those in the 30-40 age range continue to

buy regular ice cream for their kids. This dessert, although less healthy than some of its competi-

tors, is a traditional treat that is a crowd pleaser. These women probably consumed ice cream

when they were young, so they carry on the tradition in their homes. Based on the wide multifac-

eted factors in play, women consumers have more diverse purchasing trends than men.

Male consumers tend to be less brand loyal than women. Therefore, when they ap-

proached the grocery store shelf, it was evident that they did not have a particular brand or type

of product in mind. They do not have any loyalty or particular ties. When they bought frozen

desserts, they seemed to randomly select their goods.

Graph B.

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The graph above (graph B) illustrates in percentages the age ranges of frozen dessert con-

sumers at the Martin’s Food Market in which we observed customers. 7% of the customers were

between the ages of 10-19, 33% of the customers were between the ages of 20-30, 43% of the

customers were between the ages of 31-40, 7% of customers were between the ages of 41-50,

and 10% of customers appeared to be 50 or older. It is important to note that in order to synthe-

size this data we used observational research. In the discussion of this data, the 20-30 and 31-40

age ranges are the area of focus.

According to detailed research analysis, millennials, or people in the 20-30 age bracket

tend to be far more likely to follow a specific diet in comparison to people of other generation.

Rather than being on a diet however, they are more likely to research products. They don’t begin

dieting; instead, they are likely to consume products that are more healthy and have more nutri-

tional value. They are the perfect candidates to be consuming frozen yogurt, low-fat ice cream,

gelato, and sherbet. With the rise of this generation of consumers, they will probably pass down

their unique values to younger generations. It will be interesting to observe the development of

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this mentality in future studies. It calls into question the sustainability of the ice cream industry

on the whole.

Consumers who range in age from 31-40 made up a largest portion of consumers at the

grocery store (43%). Typically, people in this age range can be tied to families and children. For

this reason, people in this age range will probably consumer ice cream rather than other products.

For families, ice cream is a delectable, traditional treat. For someone who is buying for many

people, such as in a family setting, they must satisfy their families. Their go-to product is ice

cream, not an unconventional product like frozen yogurt or gelato. Unlike younger consumers,

they tend to be less concerned with the health concerns associated with ice cream. Rather, they

consider ice cream to be a treat. If they are health conscious, they believe that enjoying ice cream

is a justified deviation from their typical dietary patterns. They are not likely to substitute ice

cream for other products.

Graph C.

The graph above (graph C) represents the marital status of observed consumers at the

Martin’s Food Market in which we observed customers. Approximately 47% of the consumers

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appeared to be married, while 36% of consumers appeared to be single. We could not defini-

tively conclude the status of 17% of the consumers.

It is important to note that in order to synthesize the status of the subjects, we used obser-

vational research. We tended to associate those in the middle-aged range bracket, those with

wedding bands, and those who had children with them as people in the “married” category.

Those people who are married tended to purchase ice cream rather than its competitor

products. For families, ice cream is a delectable, traditional treat. For someone who is buying for

many people, such as in a family setting, they must satisfy their families. Their go-to product is

ice cream, not an unconventional product like frozen yogurt or gelato. They consider ice cream

to be a treat. If they are health conscious, they believe that enjoying ice cream is a justified devi-

ation from their typical dietary patterns. They are not likely to substitute ice cream for other

products.

Consumers who are single tend to be more open to the new products, such as frozen yo-

gurt, which are now sitting beside ice cream on the grocery store shelf. They are not concerned

with pleasing other people, which is a concern for married people. Therefore, these consumers

are more open to trying new things. They will be more inclined to buy the competing products to

ice cream. Additionally, these subjects have more time and energy to focus on their food con-

sumption.

Graph D.

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Graph D encapsulates the types of frozen desserts purchased at the Martin’s Food Market

in which we observed customers. 51% of shoppers bought regular ice cream, 30% bought frozen

yogurt, 16% bought low-fat ice cream, while just 3% of consumers bought sherbet. No con-

sumers purchased gelato.

Clearly, ice cream is still the largest player in the market. As depicted in the graph how-

ever, some of its rivals certainly are relevant in the modern grocery store. In the past when con-

sumer would walk into a grocery store, there would not be a lot of variety in brand or product op-

tions whatsoever. Now frozen dessert products tend to dominate up to an entire aisle in the store.

This in and of itself is a major step in the industry. The introduction of new products represents a

demand that consumers are placing on the market. Some people are demanding more options.

On the other hand, ice cream is the biggest player in the market. And many researchers

predict that this will remain to be the case in the future.

Graphs E and F.

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Graphs E and F show the socio-economic class and race of the observed consumers at the

Martin’s Food Market in which we observed shoppers. Although we observed this data, we con-

cluded that these two factors did not affect our findings.

Graph G.

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Graph G depicts the percentage of consumers who did or did not look at more than one

product in the frozen dessert aisle where we observed shoppers. Our findings concluded that

63% of shoppers did not look at more than one product, while 37% of shoppers did look at more

than one product. This data was important to our project in that it told us about brand loyalty.

The five men who we observed all fit into the 37% of consumers who looked at more than one

product. Although we only observed five men, this information gave us insight into the consumer

trends of men. Men tend to be less brand loyal than women. The 63% of shoppers who did not

look at more than one product were all women. This showed us that women tend to be very

brand loyal and don’t think twice when picking up a product that they have bought many times

previously. Because women are so used to shopping for the same products at grocery stores that

they have always bought, they most likely will not stray from what they know. Therefore, if they

have always bought regular ice cream for their homes, then there is a good chance that they are

not going to change habits. However, if they were to want to try a different type of frozen dessert

product, they will most likely look for the different product within the brand they have always

purchased. If the women are buying for their families and for themselves (i.e. regular ice cream

and frozen yogurt), then it is very likely that they purchase more than one product within the

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brand. This is important for companies to understand about their consumers so that they can pro-

vide their customers with a number of different products to satisfy their needs.

V. Findings and Conclusions

One of our major findings is that the frozen yogurt industry is only a moderate threat to

the ice cream industry; in other words, researchers do not see frozen yogurt taking over the role

that ice cream plays in the lives of Americans. Actual frozen yogurt stores, on the other hand,

pose a somewhat larger threat to ice cream storefronts. People enjoy frozen yogurt because it is a

delicious treat that is typically considered to be more healthy than ice cream. With the wave of

health-conscious people sweeping the nation, this is a fantastic substitute for ice cream. The

product fits in with the diets of health conscious consumers. It is important to note that we fo-

cused our study on the consumer’s perception of ice cream in grocery stores. This presents a dif-

ferent view of the industry. A major reason as to why consumers enjoy frozen yogurt is for the

experience of going to the store. There they can select their favorite flavors; most of the time

they even get to serve themselves. Afterwards, they can scoop their favorite toppings on the treat.

This is not an experience that customers can enjoy at a grocery store. Many of the people that we

interviewed also cited that they do not think frozen yogurt out of a carton is as delicious as the

product in the physical store. Therefore, they are less inclined to buy frozen yogurt in the grocery

store.

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The above graph (Vandermey) depicts the average number of times per year Americans

eat ice cream as compared to the average number of times they consume frozen yogurt. Frozen

yogurt stores have been popping up across the country at an extremely rapid pace. As evidenced

above, the frozen yogurt industry hit a peak in the mid-1990s. Researchers explain that they ex-

pect the industry to hit a similar peak in the near future. Clearly people are enjoying consuming

frozen yogurt. However, even though this industry is on the rise, it does not even come close to

rivaling ice cream. In fact, “Americans eat ice cream 24 times as often as they do its lower-fat

cousin.” We have come to conclude that the frozen yogurt threat is not significant at this time be-

cause of this large gap in consumption. People will always enjoy eating ice cream. It has not only

taken on the role of being a dessert; it has become an integral tradition in homes nationwide.

Another one of our findings about the frozen dessert market is that women are more

health conscious than men are. Throughout our observations, we noticed that young, single

women are more likely to forgo regular ice cream for its healthier alternative: frozen yogurt.

Women who want to maintain a healthy diet are willing to sacrifice the taste and texture of regu-

lar ice cream for the more nutritional frozen yogurt or low-fat ice cream. Out of the five men we

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observed at Martin’s Food Market, ranging from age 20-50, all five of them chose to buy regular

ice cream. Because of this, it is clear that women, especially young and single, are more meticu-

lous when choosing the type of frozen dessert they will consume. This consumer trend of young

women fits in with the fact that they are born in the millennial generation. millennials appreciate

organic ingredients and healthy foods and our observational data proves this.

On the other hand, married, middle-aged women were more likely to buy regular ice

cream or a combination of low-fat ice cream and regular ice cream. We determined that married

women are not just buying for themselves, and instead buying for their family. Ice cream is such

a tradition for American families, and it would be extremely hard to find a family that does not

have at least one carton of ice cream in their freezer at all times. Because of this, married women

with families are more likely to buy ice cream as a treat or snack for their children or spouses. If

they were to purchase more than one ice cream product such as regular and low-fat, which we

did observe, we can conclude that they are buying the lower fat ice cream product for themselves

and the regular to satisfy the desires of their families. Many mothers see ice cream as a treat for

themselves and their kids, rather than a food category to count calories in. Therefore, it is clear

that no other product will take the place of regular ice cream in the diets of Americans.

While some people may use this health revolution and the advancement of food products

as a way to revolutionize their diets, our observations and research conclude that ice cream will

always remain a treat in the mindsets of Americans, and no matter how many alternative options

enter the market, ice cream will always reign supreme.

VI. Appendix

Digital Story Narrative:

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Ice cream. A delectable dessert on its own or a topping to a birthday cake or a thanksgiv-

ing pie. A way to cool down in the summer months, or a yummy treat dressed in hot fudge en-

joyed while sitting in front of the fireplace during a long, cold winter. No matter how, when, or

where, ice cream is consumed, it has become a staple in diets all over America. Young and old,

ice cream has brought joy to every individual across the country for years.

The ice cream craze was sparked during the 1950s and 1960s when the widespread estab-

lishment of supermarkets and specialty ice cream stores made packaged ice cream available for

families to take home and store in their own freezers. Since then, the market for ice cream has

continued to grow.

With hundreds of thousands of different flavors, there isn’t one flavor that doesn’t appeal

to at least one ice cream consumer. Ice cream is not solely diverse in the flavor category. With

the new health-revolution that has recently struck the country, the ice cream industry has contin-

ued to adapt to satisfy its consumers. The new, popular branch of ice cream, frozen yogurt, has

single-handedly taken America by storm. By offering ice cream lovers a new product that tastes

just as good as ice cream with healthier benefits, there is no way anyone could say no to this new

delicacy.

Some of the most famous ice cream brands that are seen in almost every supermarket

freezer like Ben & Jerry’s, Blue Bunny, and Turkey Hill, are now offering consumers their clas-

sic and most popular flavors in frozen yogurt edition. The public is seeking out lower-fat, lower-

sugar treats and frozen yogurt has satisfied their needs. Frozen yogurt “do-it-yourself” shops that

have popped up all over the United States, have helped spark the growth in the frozen yogurt in-

dustry.

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One of the most popular of these shops in the Richmond area is “Sweet Frog.” Sweet

Frog, along with the hundreds of other frozen yogurt shops, allows consumers to choose the size

of their dish, fill it up to the amount of frozen yogurt they want, and top their frozen yogurt with

treats like fruit, candy, hot fudge sauce, and other tasty toppings. By giving the consumer the

power to serve themselves, it gives them the satisfaction of controlling how much they eat of this

“healthier” alternative to ice cream.

Despite the frozen yogurt fever that has taken over the ice cream market, ice cream has

remained and will always remain a timeless treat to be enjoyed by everyone. It has been proven

over many, many years, that people will never stray from ice cream, no matter how many alter-

native options are being offered. The perfect amount of sweetness, creaminess, and coolness that

is ice cream, will never truly be replaced. And lets face it, the “frozen yogurt truck” does not

sound nearly as good as the “ice cream truck.” And the saying “we all scream for frozen yogurt”

just doesn’t sound the least bit American.

DST Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Boee_5XrSa0

Consumer Report Video Link:

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/ice-creams-frozen-yogurts.htm

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