· Web viewinclude land use changes, long-term climate change, introduction or removal of species, harvesting and resource consumption and external inputs (e.g. fertilizers). Climate

Second Order Draft for External Reviewers: Do not quote, cite or disseminate

CONVENTION ON WETLANDS21st Meeting of the Scientific and Technical Review PanelGland, Switzerland, 15 – 19 January 2018

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Global Wetland Outlook:Drivers of change

Importantly, the Ramsar Convention Strategic Plan’s first goal is addressing the drivers of wetland loss and degradation. This section examines the direct and indirect drivers, including global megatrends, affecting wetlands. This is critical information, because policy and management responses to wetland degradation and loss will be based on changing human-induced drivers, or on responding or adapting to natural drivers of change.

Key messages…to come

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PAGE 37: Understanding drivers in wetlands

For Ramsar, as with the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and IPBES, direct drivers (also known as pressures or proximate causes) refer to natural or anthropogenic factors that cause direct, biophysical changes at a local scale (Geist & Lambin 2002; Van Asselen et al. 2013). Indirect drivers have a broader, diffuse effect on wetlands, mostly by influencing direct drivers. Indirect drivers often relate to socio-economic, demographic and cultural processes at local, regional and global scales. Some are classified as global megatrends, as they influence human activity worldwide (Figure 1).

Natural drivers of change include solar radiation, weather variation, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, pests and diseases. Human-induced drivers include land use changes, long-term climate change, introduction or removal of species, harvesting and resource consumption and external inputs (e.g. fertilizers). Climate variability is a natural driver of change, but long-term climate change is a human-induced driver because of the link with increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Climate change is also a global megatrend, given its worldwide influence on policy and human activity.

Our understanding of human-induced drivers is hampered by the complexity of the pathways from indirect drivers to wetland loss and degradation. There are many drivers, and some can have both negative and positive effects on wetlands. Interactions between drivers occur within and between different spatial scales. Climate change, for example, can be a direct driver of change in wetlands by causing biophysical changes, affecting temperature, water levels and hydroperiods (Renton et al. 2015), and can operate synergistically with other drivers (e.g., abundance of invasive species) (Oliver & Morecroft 2014). But climate change can also be an indirect driver; for example, mitigation efforts may include higher biofuel production and increased hydropower, which can increase pressures on wetlands.

Conversion of natural wetlands may lead directly or indirectly to the creation of human-made wetlands (Davidson 2014). Some of the latter have developed over hundreds of years and have become part of the landscape, performing many ecosystem functions of natural wetlands. Although human-made wetlands are important, the GWO focuses on drivers of change in natural wetlands. Many direct drivers of change in natural wetlands (changes in water supply, removal of vegetation or introduction of species or nutrients) are part of the management regime of human-made wetlands. A separate assessment is needed, but is beyond our scope here. For similar reasons, wetland restoration, which can be viewed as a driver in degraded wetlands (e.g. Sievers et al. 2017), was not considered here.

[405 words]

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Rough sketch of Figure 1


PAGE 38: Direct drivers: physical regime change

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA 2005) analyzed impacts of direct drivers on wetlands. We draw on this, and other analyses (e.g. Dudgeon et al. 2006), to update the analysis for Ramsar wetland types. Four categories are considered: physical, extraction, introduction (e.g., pollution and invasive species) and structural change drivers.

Physical regime drivers are factors whose conditions and pattern of variation are altered by humans, related to changes in inflow quantity and frequency, sediment load, salinity and temperature.

Prolonged or permanent water abstraction, interception or diversion destroys the ecological character of inland wetlands (Kingsford 2000); the Aral Sea and Lake Chad are extreme examples. Marshes are highly sensitive to water volumes and seasonal changes. Peatlands are degraded by water loss, as are karst, aquifers and springs (Sullivan et al. 2014), while coastal wetlands are sensitive to sea level rise.

The construction of dams increased in all Ramsar regions (Figure 3.2) until the mid 1990s. Recently there has been renewed interest in hydropower (Figure 3.3), partly to reduce carbon emissions associated with alternative energy sources. However, hydropower is not always carbon-free because of methane emissions from reservoirs and land clearance during construction (Wehrli 2011) as shown in parts of South America in particular. Impacts on water resources, biodiversity and ecosystem services also need careful evaluation (Poff & Hart 2002; Tranvik et al. 2009). Of the 292 large river systems in the world (Nilsson et al. 2005), only 120 are still free-flowing, of which 25 will be fragmented due to on-going or planned dam construction (Zarfl et al. 2014 - update).

Sediment transport to wetlands can increase due to erosion as a consequence of deforestation and land use change. Increased sediment loads can change lake character by modifying shore habitats, infilling, or increased turbidity. It degrades coastal ecosystems (Hanley et al. 2014); and damages offshore seagrass beds and kelp forests (Steneck et al, 2002). Mangroves are sensitive to sediment change, which is strongly influenced by climate change (Figure 3.4). Conversely, in other places sediment supply to coastal wetlands and deltas can be reduced by dam and levee construction upstream, reducing the replenishment of coastal systems, reducing nutrient supply and decreasing marine productivity (see Figure 3.5).

Mean ocean temperature has increased steadily over the last 60 years (Figure 3.6), affecting shallow marine water, seagrass beds, kelp forests and coral reefs (Provost et al. 2017; de Fouw et al. 2016; Gera et al. 2014; Govers et al. 2014; Liu et al. 2017). Severe increases in magnitude and/or duration of maximum sea temperatures bleach or destroy coral systems (Baker et al. 2008; Furby et al. 2013).

Salinisation due to water abstraction, or saltwater intrusion from rising sea level (Renaud et al. 2015; Chen et al. 2016), influence many marine habitats ranging from estuaries to mangroves.

[434 words]

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Figure 3.2. Dam capacity (in km3 of water potentially held) in each of the 6 Ramsar regions. Source: FAO–AquaStat Dams Database. http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/dams/index.stm

Figure 3.3. Number of future hydropower dams per major river basin. Red >100, Orange 26–100, Yellow 11–25, Green <10, Gray no data available. Future dam construction is concentrated in the developing economies of Southeast Asia, South America and Africa and in the Balkans, Anatolia, and the Caucasus. Source: Zarfl et al. 2014

Figure 3.4: Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems. Figure 3.5: impacts of dam and levee construction

Figure 3.6. Change in average surface temperature of the world’s oceans since 1880. The 1971- 2000 average is used as a baseline for showing change. The shaded band shows the range of uncertainty in the data, based on the number of measurements collected and the precision of the methods used. Source: NOAA (2016).PAGE 39: Direct drivers: extraction

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Some proposed figures – we will not have space for them all


Extraction changes wetlands by partial or complete removal of ecosystem components, such as water, species, and soil, including peat.

Water is extracted from inland wetlands for agricultural, domestic and industrial use (Figure 3.12). Agriculture is currently responsible for about 70% of blue water extraction, but this proportion is expected to fall to less than 50% by mid-21st century due to growth in domestic, industrial and energy use in developing economies (WWAP 2016).

High levels of fishing or harvesting of other freshwater species can change ecosystem structure. High levels of commercial or recreational fishing can decrease populations and diversity or change trophic structure. Global inland fisheries catch (from lakes, rivers, reservoirs and floodplains) is still increasing, mostly due to growth in Asia and Africa (Figure 3.7). Here inland fisheries are important for food with many lakes and ponds being stocked annually whereas in other parts of the world recreational fishing is more important. While fishing is not necessarily detrimental, overfishing, harmful fishing methods (e.g. using explosives or poison) and introduction of alien species can have negative impacts (Welcomme et al. 2010). Overharvesting of shellfish from coastal wetlands is common with many oyster reefs having been destroyed (REF).

Intensive wood harvesting for timber or charcoal in wetland forests or mangroves can cause major changes to ecological character. Coral harvesting can lead to degradation and loss of coastal reefs. Peatlands are vulnerable to peat extraction, drainage and logging. The soil in many freshwater wetlands is used for brick making.

Sand and gravel harvesting from rivers and coasts are related to urban development and now exceed fossil fuel and biomass in terms of total mass extracted (Schandl et al. 2016; Figure 3.7b). Sand mining disturbs and destroys benthic habitats and affects water quality through suspended sediments, with multiple ecological impacts. Because of the open nature of the resource, regulation is problematic and cases of illegal harvesting are increasing (Torres et al. 2017).

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Figure 3.7. Inland fish catch 1950–2015. , excluding reptiles and mammals. Source: FAO Fishstat database. http://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/global-capture-production/en

Figure 3.7b: Note: the non-metalalic minerals include sand and gravel for land reclamation and construction and now exceed the other three categories. Source: Schandl, H., Fischer-Kowalski, M., West, J., Giljum, S., Dittrich, M., Eisenmenger, N., Geschke, A., Lieber, M., Wieland, H.P., Schaffartzik, A. and Krausmann, F., 2016. Global material flows and resource productivity. Assessment Report for the UNEP International Resource Panel, UNEP.

http://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/global-capture-production/en


PAGE 40: Direct drivers: introduction of pollutants and alien species

Introduction drivers include the addition of nutrients and chemicals (e.g. through agriculture or aquaculture and urban and industrial discharges), invasive species, solid waste and atmospheric deposition.

Excessive nutrients from sewage, industrial waste, agriculture or aquaculture cause eutrophication, resulting in major changes to plant and animal communities, water quality, biomass and oxygen levels. Nutrient enrichment leads to excessive algal and/or other plant growth; when plants die their decomposition can decrease the oxygen concentrations in the water. This affects many inland and coastal wetlands (Smith 2003; Smith et al. 2006); for example increasing cyanobacterial blooms in lakes (Paerl & Otten 2013; Glibert et al. 2005). Hypoxia (oxygen starvation) in coastal ecosystems has also increased steadily since the 1970s (Rabalais et al. 2010); over 500 coastal “dead zones” are currently known (UNEP 2014). Reef systems are impacted by increased sediment or nutrient levels, often from agricultural catchments or urban/port infrastructure (Wenger et al. 2015).

Marine and urban waste cause ecological degradation in coastal wetlands (Poeta et al. 2014). Plastic is a major polluter, with an estimated 4.8 to 12.7 million metric tons globally ending up in the marine environment in 2010 (Jambeck et al. 2015), representing 60-80% of total marine debris. Besides its physical impacts, there are also concerns about the toxicological effects of chemicals associated with plastics (Beaman et al. 2016). Industrial, domestic and agricultural activities also release pollutants that can lead to declines in diversity, populations and productivity, as well as increased species loss and pathology (Zhang et al. 2011). [See Figure 3.8 on chemicals in agriculture.] Global fertilizer use will likely exceed 200 million tons a year in 2018, some 25 per cent higher than in 2008 (FAO 2015).

The introduction of invasive species disrupts trophic structure and energy flows, species composition and ecosystems. The number of established alien freshwater species has been increasing globally, e.g. there has been a continuous increase in the number of new introductions of freshwater alien species in Europe, especially in the last 60 years (Figure 3.9 and Nunes et al. 2015). Wetlands appear to be particularly vulnerable to invasion because of their position in the landscape, accumulating sediments, nutrients and water, and creating conditions - sometimes helped by disturbance - for opportunistic species to flourish (Zedler & Kerchner 2004). Many lakes worldwide suffer from infestation with water hyacinth (Eichornia crassipes), originally native to South America (Figure 3.10). A well-known example with multiple drivers is Lake Victoria, East Africa, where the introduction of the Nile perch (Lates nilotica) combined with eutrophication and changes in water level led to drastic changes in the trophic structure (Kiwango & Wolanski 2008).

In shallow marine water, seagrass beds and kelp forests, introduced biota or changes in local species composition can result in substantial ecosystem degradation (e.g. the so-called urchin barrens). The number of alien species in marine ecosystems has also been increasing (Figure 3.9). For example, around 140 non-indigenous species have been recorded in the Baltic Sea in Europe, of which 14 were introduced from 2011-2016 (HELCOM 2017).

[490 words]

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Figure 3.10. Global distribution of water hyacinth, native to south America but now present throughout parts of the southern and northern hemispheres. Source: Theuri et al. (2013)

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Figure 3.9. Cumulative number of established alien species in European freshwater and marine ecosystems. Based on data from the following countries: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Russia and Sweden. Source: various databases in EEA (2012). Figure adapted from EEA (2012).

Figure 3.8. Trends in agricultural chemical use, 1990 - 2014. Source: FAO (2016). FAOSTAT Inputs/Pesticides Use. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RP


PAGE 41: Direct drivers: structural changes

Structural change can alter wetlands and their immediate environment, for example through drainage, conversion or burning of wetland vegetation. Conversion by canalisation, inundation or infilling is common in rivers, streams and floodplains, dramatically altering their ecological character. Conversion to other land uses such as plantation forestry, agricultural or urban land, or landfill and excess sedimentation is a major destructive driver in forested wetlands. Many marshes are threatened by physical drainage, infilling and conversion to agricultural or urban land (Mediterranean Wetlands Observatory 2014; Zorrilla-Miras et al. 2014). Freshwater peat wetlands are being converted to agriculture, both in temperate regions and in the tropics (Joosten 2009; Medrilzam et al. 2017; Urák et al. 2017). This may destroy the peatland directly, or indirectly through drainage, conversion by infilling or inundation, or excessive fire frequency and intensity. A study in peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Kalimantan showed that the proportion of peatland area covered by peat swamp forest decreased from 76% in 1990 to 41% in 2007 and 29% in 2015 (Miettienen et al. 2016).

Coastal wetlands are also converted on a large scale. Drainage of tidal flats, salt marshes and lagoons or excessive bar opening in barrier estuaries can impact on ecological character, while in many cases conversion to reclaimed land destroys or severely degrades the ecosystem (Murray et al. 2015; Figure 3.11); for example conversion by dredging or infilling to reclaimed land can destroy mangroves (Ferreira & Lacerda 2016).

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PAGE 42: Table of direct causes

Table 1 presents a systematic analysis of the direct causes of anthropogenic change in wetlands, with an assessment of their significance (global, regional or more site-specific). It identifies drivers known to cause substantial changes in ecological character or destruction of wetlands. This rating is qualitative and based on expert knowledge, indicating drivers known across a wide range of contexts and locations. The importance of drivers will vary depending on individual contexts or for sites with special local characteristics.

Table 1: Anthropogenic direct drivers of change in different natural wetland types. PHYSICAL REGIME EXTRACTION INTRODUCTION STRUCTURAL

CHANGE

Wat

er q

uant

ity

Wat

er fr

eque

ncy

Sed

imen

t

Sal

inity

Ther

mal

Wat

er

Bio

ta

Soi

l and

pea

t

Nut

rient

s

Che

mic

als

Inva

sive

spe

cies

Sol

id w

aste

Dra

inag

e

Con

vers

ion

Bur

ning

INLA

ND

Rivers, streams, floodplains

O O O

Lakes O O

Forested wetlands O O OO

O O O

Peatlands O O O O O

Marshes (on mineral soils)

O O O O

Underground wetlands

O

CO

AST

AL

Estuaries, tidal flats, saltmarshes, lagoons

O O

Mangroves O O O

Reef systems (incl coral; shellfish & temperate)

O O O

Sand dunes, rocky shores, beaches

O O

Shallow marine waters, seagrass beds kelp forests

O O O

Drivers for each wetland type are indicated by colours or symbols, where red = major drivers of change of global significance; orange = significant drivers of change of regional to global significance; tan = other known significant drivers of change. O indicates drivers that are known to cause wetland destruction.

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PAGE 43: Indirect drivers overview

Indirect drivers also influence wetland change. We classify them in line with the Ramsar Strategic Plan: water-energy; food and fibre (agriculture, forestry, aquaculture and fisheries); infrastructure (urban development, transport and industry); and tourism. We distinguish these national and regional indirect drivers from "megatrends" (see below), described at global scale. Indirect drivers are determined by factors such as legislation and policies, markets and value chains, and the environmental awareness of practitioners.

The water-energy sector creates dams, reservoirs, dykes and other hard infrastructure for water storage, flood prevention, hydropower generation and irrigation. Abstraction competes with ecosystem needs. Agriculture is by far the biggest water user, followed by hydropower, manufacturing and domestic use (Figure 3.12). Biofuels are being challenged as climate-friendly alternatives for fossil fuels partly due to their water use (de Fraiture & Wichelns 2010; Delucchi 2010).

The food and fibre sector is also a major indirect driver of wetland conversion due to agricultural policies, the market demand and pricing of agricultural products, and awareness of wetland conversion in the sector. All these influence direct agricultural drivers of change, such as conversion of wetlands to cropland or fishponds, agrochemical applications and irrigation. There are important regional differences. In Asia, increased agricultural production comes from intensification and higher inputs of nutrients and chemicals (Figures 3.8, 3.13); in South America growth relies on mechanization; while in much of Africa, increases come from expansion of farmed area, resulting in more forest and wetland conversion (OECD/FAO 2016). Aquaculture can cause changes in physical regime, water extraction and the introduction of nutrients, chemicals and invasive species but impacts depend strongly on the system used (e.g. pond culture or floating cages) which varies regionally.

Infrastructure involves construction of buildings, pipelines, bridges, roads, dykes, airports and residential areas. Built structures replace vegetation and block the movement of water, nutrients and animals. Numerous studies have shown the impact of road networks on wetlands (Trombulak & Frissell 2000; Andrews et al. 2008); roads cut through wetlands, obstruct hydrological pathways, cause fragmentation and have impacts on habitat, migration and biodiversity. Road traffic causes pollution from fuel and lubricants, exhaust fumes, solid waste and, in the northern hemisphere, salt. Traffic creates noise and light disturbance, and roadkills increase wildlife mortality. Roads also literally pave the way for more infrastructural development, hunting and fishing.

The tourism and recreation sector may lead to infrastructure development (e.g. hotels, resorts, golf courses), but also stimulates movement of people and materials towards wetlands, creating increased demand for resources, waste discharge and disturbance.

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Figure 3.12. Global water demand in 2000, and projection for 2050. These are estimates based on the IMAGE models of Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL).

Figure 3.13. Trends in mineral fertilizer (nitrogen and phosphorus) use from 1961 to 2014. Figure based on combined data on agricultural inputs (Fertilizers 2002-2014 and Fertilizers Archive 1961-2001) from FAOSTAT (http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data).

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PAGE 44: Indirect drivers overview table

Table 2 shows, based on expert opinion, the relationships between indirect drivers and the direct drivers of change in natural wetlands that were presented in Table 3.1.

Table 2. Indirect drivers of change and their influence on direct drivers of change in natural wetlands

Wat

er-e

nerg

y in

frast

ruct

ure

Food and fibre Infrastructure

Tour

ism

&R

ecre

atio

n

Loca

lised

cl

imat

e ch

ange

im

pact

s

Agr

icul

ture

Fore

stry

Aqu

acul

ture

Fish

erie

s

Indu

stry

&

min

ing

Tran

spor

t (r

oad,

air,

w

ater

)

Con

stru

ctio

n

PH

YS

ICA

L R

EG

IME

Salinity

Water quantity

Water frequency

Sediment

Thermal

EX

TRA

CTI

ON

Water

Soil and peat

Biota

INTR

OD

UC

TIO

N Nutrients

Chemicals

Invasive species

Solid waste

STR

UC

TUR

AL

CH

AN

GE

Drainage

Conversion

Burning

Drivers for each wetland type are indicated by colours or symbols, where red = major influence of global significance; orange = significant influence of regional to global significance; tan = other known significant influence.

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PAGES 45-46: Global megatrends

Global megatrends are indirect drivers that influence all policy sectors and areas of human activity on a global scale (Naisbitt 1982; EEA 2015; Hajkowicz et al. 2012).

Demography and population growth. Global population is expected to reach 10 billion by the mid 21st century (Figure 3.14; UN 2015b), with the strongest growth in developing countries. In the developed world, population will grow more slowly, or even shrink. In the short term, lack of economic development coupled with environmental degradation, climate-change and sometimes conflict, can lead to migration to developed countries (OECD 2015).

Urbanization. By 2050, two-thirds of the world population is expected to live in urban areas (UN 2015a). In the developing world, urban population will likely double, due to economic opportunities in cities, agricultural mechanization reducing rural employment, and environmental degradation undermining rural livelihoods (EEA 2015). While urbanization offers potential for efficient resource use, rapid urban growth often brings unregulated development in the peri-urban fringe, with damaging social and environmental impacts (McInnes 2013). Urbanization alters wetlands through changes in hydrological connectivity, habitat alteration, water tables and soil saturation, pollution and ultimately species richness and abundance (Faulkner 2004). Large-scale urban development in coastal areas creates pressures on coastal zones and river deltas (Figure 3.15).

Globalisation. In economic terms, globalisation refers to the integration of national economies into international trade and financial flows (IMF 2002). However, it also has cultural and political aspects. Modern transport and telecommunications have increased daily flows of people, goods and knowledge across the globe. People travel for business or tourism, or become economic migrants. Food and goods are produced in areas with low production costs and shipped to consumers far away. Globalisation can have benefits (economic development, poverty reduction) but also risks (competition between workers in different countries, inequality, environmental pressure); opposition to global trade agreements has risen, with more protectionist policies now visible. Globalisation influences most other megatrends and several indirect drivers of wetland change. Physical flows of goods can for instance lead to introduction of problem invasive species. Abundance and richness of non-native species in aquatic environments are for instance higher in tourism sites than in sites without tourists (Anderson et al. 2015).

Consumption: A growing middle class in developing countries is changing patterns of food and energy consumption (Hubacek et al. 2007; OECD/FAO 2016), increasing demand for infrastructure, industrial products and water and also increasing waste production and greenhouse gas emissions. For example, increased meat consumption has dramatic impacts on resource demands, increasing land use change to produce pasture and soy for feed; and boosting direct water use. Beef production for instance uses 11 times more irrigation water than alternatives such as poultry and pigs; all demand far more water and land in their production than plant-based foods (UNCCD 2017).

Climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014) projected climate change to significantly reduce surface water and groundwater resources in dry subtropical regions, intensifying competition for water; increase extinction risk in freshwater species, especially due to synergistic

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effects with other drivers; pose a “high risk of abrupt and irreversible regional-scale change in the composition, structure, and function of … freshwater ecosystems”; and damage coastal ecosystems through sea-level rise. Responses to climate change can be both negative and positive for wetlands. For example, hydropower and biofuels may both result in wetland loss and degradation. In contrast, the importance of wetlands for carbon sequestration can promote wetland conservation and restoration. [Refs to come]

Environmental awareness and the importance of wetlands. Early examples of formal environmental policies and legislation were developed in the 19th century in response to severe environmental problems caused by industry. In the 20th century, this developed with the establishment of protected areas, growth of the environmental movement, some major international agreements and increased political attention. Recently, developments have been influenced by climate science (e.g. the 2016 Paris Agreement). The realization that humans depend on ecosystems resulted in concepts like the "ecosystem approach" (Smith & Maltby 2003) and "wise use" (Ramsar Convention 2005; Finlayson 2012). During the last 15 years, global initiatives like the MA, TEEB and IPBES have resulted in general acceptance of ecosystem services and multiple ecosystem values (MEA 2005; Russi et al. 2013; Diaz et al. 2015). However, full integration of these values into decision-making remains challenging.

Challenges such as the loss and degradation of wetlands, climate change and poverty are systemic; they pervade the global social-ecological system and are caused by many interacting processes. Addressing these challenges requires flexible, transparent and accountable governance systems, with attention to equity and inclusion of societal actors (Cookey et al. 2016). Their adaptive capacity is related to the ability of actors to learn and incorporate new knowledge, to collaborate in formal and informal networks, and to take a long-term perspective (Pahl-Wostl 2009). Effective governance entails not only policies and regulations but also the capacity for implementation and evaluation (Mostert et al. 2007). Conversely, where governance and institutions are weak, decision making often focuses on local, short-term goals like electoral or commercial success, or is influenced by special interest groups or corruption.

[837 words]

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Figure 3.14. World population estimates for the period 1950-2015; and medium-variant projection for 2015-2100. Source: UN (2017).

Figure 3.15. Population density around 2008 (ind./km2) in the countries surrounding the Mediterranean. Higher population density in the coastal zones is clearly visible (source: Plan Bleu (Environment and development in the Mediterranean) 2008, http://planbleu.org/en


PAGE 47: Assessment of direct and indirect drivers of wetland degradation and loss

While the qualitative assessment of drivers of wetland degradation and loss in Tables 3.1 and 3.2 is useful, more quantitative data on wetland drivers is needed for policy and decision making. This presents a challenge, as much of the information needed to quantify wetland drivers is collected in the context of other policy sectors (e.g. agriculture, water resources) and not specifically for any driver or wetland type. Wetland degradation and loss are often caused by combinations of multiple direct and indirect drivers. Meta-analyses of case study reports of wetland degradation and aquatic biodiversity loss showed that the expansion of agricultural and urban land, and the construction of infrastructure are the most important direct drivers of change, while economic growth, population density, market demands and institutional factors are the most important indirect drivers (Wood & van Halsema 2008; van Asselen et al. 2013; Sievers et al. 2017).

Perhaps the best quantitative estimates of drivers of change are made as part of modelling efforts, especially catchment-scale and global hydrology models (e.g. Wisser et al. 2010; van Beek et al. 2011), models to estimate nutrient exports from rivers (Fekete et al. 2010; Mayorga et al. 2010; Beusen et al. 2016), and global models to study aquatic biodiversity (e.g. Vorosmarty et al. 2010; Janse et al. 2015). These models calculate various direct drivers of wetland change such as river discharge and sediment and nutrient loads. They are often integrated within larger modelling frameworks that simulate indirect drivers of change such as climate, population and policy scenarios. These models struggle with the same challenge as any meta-analysis: data availability for certain regions of the world (predominantly Latin America, Africa, and to some extent Asia) is limited. Model predictions and the impact of modelling on decision making would generally benefit from improved monitoring and processing of data on wetland drivers.

[304 words]

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