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Dundee Post FG 4
THE QUALITATIVE ELECTION STUDY OF BRITAIN 2017
Dundee Post Group 4
Transcribed Focus Groups Dataset
Version 0.5
Date of release: 5 December 2017
Principal InvestigatorDr. Edzia Carvalho, University of Dundee
International Co-InvestigatorDr. Kristi Winters, GESIS, Cologne
Co-InvestigatorDr. Thom Oliver, UE Bristol
Funded by: GESIS-Leibniz InstituteUniversity of Dundee
UE BristolThe UK Data Archive
QESB Contacts
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Website: qesb.info
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Dundee Post FG 4
READ ME
Early Release of Transcribed Focus Groups Dataset Version 0.5
On copyright and attribution
Copyright of this transcript belongs to Drs. Edzia Carvalho, Kristi Winters, and Thom Oliver. Individuals may re-use this document/publication free of charge in any format for research, private study or internal circulation within an organisation. You must re-use it accurately and not present it in a misleading context. You must acknowledge the authors, the QES Britain project title, and the source document/publication.
Recommended citation: Carvalho, E., K. Winters and T. Oliver. 2017. 'The Qualitative Election Study of Britain 2017 Dataset', version 0.5. Last accessed Date of website visit. Available at: www.qesb.info
On the transcription
All participants’ names have been changed and any direct or indirect identifiers removed to protect their anonymity
The transcripts in this version also do not include extensive instructions given to participants at the beginning of the groups, introductions by participants, and some exchanges between participants and moderators during exercises.
Initial Transcription by: Just Write Secretarial Services, Belfast, Northern Ireland. Contact: [email protected]
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I: Justin, do you want to start?
Justin: Okay, well, first of all, we didn’t have anybody knocking our door on the day or anything like that. We did have one leaflet through the door, I think, and it was a Conservative one, which is very unusual for our area. The day itself, I just got up as normal, I think it was quarter past seven, but we have a school directly in front of the house so we can actually watch people vote. So yeah, we just went in as I was going to work, really, and as it was half past seven, it wasn’t very busy. I did notice that there were only two signs outside, and more came later on, but it was an SNP one and it was a Conservative one, and, again, that’s unusual that it was Conservative. I voted SNP, then I went to work and people were very quiet about... you kind of got a mixed bag. There's somebody in my office who, when it comes to a political 00:52. Every way I vote, she votes the opposite kind of way. So I think we had kind of an unspoken agreement not to say anything. I mean, we don’t fall out but it just gets quite infuriating. In the evening, I mean, I was checking the polls and things, I stayed up to see the exit polls but then I didn’t wait.
I: What was your reaction to the exit poll?
Justin: It didn’t come as a surprise. I never saw it, that’s the thing. I didn’t think that the Conservatives would get the majority. I mean, I think there was a lot of theories going around that Theresa May actually was aiming to lose so as not to deal with the Brexit mess, then she can come and rock up in another few years and sort it out for everybody, you know, a few people felt that way about it, because she wasn’t really on the ball during her campaign. You know, then woke up in the morning and there was more Conservative seats up here than I thought there was going to be, but it didn’t, you know, I wasn’t surprised. I think the whole thing was just really exhausting though, because it sort of only had a couple of months for the next major campaign, then there was another major campaign for something else and it’s [explosive sound]. It was, yeah. So I didn’t really strong feelings really other than just at the time to get over her.
I: How about you?
Alison: The day, not so much. I do a postal vote.
I: Was that process easy for you or …?
Alison: Yeah, I’ve done it several times, I'm used to it now. It isn’t, but it is once you get used to it. Myself and one of my daughters does that, so that was already in, I’d voted like two weeks prior, Lib Dem, which is my standard. I wouldn’t vote SNP ever, or Tory even less, so. There was no point voting Labour where I am, it was just going to be a wasted vote. My daughter came over, one of my daughters came over from Edinburgh, took the older two to vote, and then just nothing really until I got home quite late, because I took my daughter back to Edinburgh, got home quite late and then sat and watched everything.
I: How late then were you up, or early?
Alison: I went to bed about half six in the morning, so, yeah, I stayed up all night and just watched it unfold.
I: Yeah, what was your reaction, were you astounded, were you not surprised, were you …?
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Alison: I wasn’t astounded, as such, because I’d seen Corbyn gradually becoming more and more popular. I thought the SNP would lose some seats because of Sturgeon’s independence statement, which was obviously grating people. So I wasn’t overly surprised, I was just more hopeful that perhaps... because the first six hours, Labour were ahead, so I just kept watching and hoping that it was going to go – everybody was still saying what the exit poll was and that the Tories were going to come out with a majority but I was just hoping that they were wrong, didn’t like the result particularly, because, you know, we’re just in a state now, and I didn’t like the fact that May then came out and said, right, we’re just going to carry on, basically, which, she’s just, yeah, she’s got to go. But anyway. She has got to go.
MR: Yeah.
Alison: She will soon, but anyway, that’s another issue.
I: Yeah, we’ll come on to that later. Oliver, good to see you again, welcome back. Okay, we’re just telling the other stories of, everyone’s telling the stories of their election day. So how about for you, like, when did you go up, when did you go to the polls, was it busy, was it not, then what time, did you watch the exit poll come out …
Oliver: I did, yeah.
I: … did you stay up, so yeah, what time did, how was your day?
Oliver: I was still working through the day, actually, I probably missed that night's sleep. So a [0.05.26] or two, yeah. I went around and voted about half past nine in the morning.
I: Was it busy, or …?
Oliver: Phew, there was another guy in there. So just the two of us, yeah.
I: And then did you go watch any of the news during the day or did you or could …?
Oliver: But I was listening to it, but obviously they don’t cover the election, you know, so on the day, so there was nothing, what was going on here.
I: Can I just ask how you voted and why, and I just want to give you the caveat that it is a secret ballot so you don’t have to tell us how you’re voted, but as all good election researchers, we love when people tell us and why. So if you could kind of just walk us through that a little bit as well.
Oliver: Okay, well, I was convinced that the SNP were going to win both the Dundee seats, and Dundee West, where you guys are, and so, as of last time, I thought I basically got a free vote. I thought the majority was going to be down this time but we’re still going to win. So I voted Labour, primarily because of Corbyn, and they did okay, you know. Then that was what happened, the SNP votes was down quite a bit, but still with a majority, and Labour was second.
I: And did you hear the exit poll or see it?
Oliver: Yes.
I: And what was your reaction, was it what you’d expected, were you surprised?
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Oliver: I was probably a bit of both, actually. I mean, I bet on this election. I bet on the last election as well. I actually made more money on the last election, because I bet on the Tories having the majority, and that came true. This election, I was betting on the Labour percentage, so I’d actually bet on everything. So from zero to hundred, and so I was guaranteed to make a profit no matter what happened, you know. But my money shot was a Labour 35 to 40. So I was getting a bit worried in the end, they were getting too many votes, you know what I mean. So I made some money off that as well. So in a sense it was about this sort of ballpark, I think it was better than I expected.
I: So we’ve ended up with a hung parliament and the Conservatives are now working with the DUP to provide supply and confidence. Justin, what’s your thoughts on the DUP?
Justin: No. No. No. Just no. I don’t even know where to begin, I just don't agree with... I’ve heard about them before with other elections and things, because nobody ever seems to look at Northern Ireland, then you'd have a look, because they don’t have Labour or the Tories so what are the parties that they’re actually going for? I remember years ago, this lot, and I found it distasteful really. It’s the mix of church and state that I take umbrage at, because the main things that everybody’s saying is marriage equality and women’s rights, and the arguments I see kind of come from their followers are like, "but in the eyes of God is this [08:44], you know, separate. I think I’m kind of hoping that this will be the end of Theresa May, I think this maybe the nail in the coffin, because I think the majority of the people in Great Britain don’t share the values of the DUP. So I suppose we'll see.
I: Yeah, we’ll see. Alison?
Alison: Well, everything Justin just said. I'm really concerned that even today, now, there’s this fire happened down in London, which is horrendous and the third thing they’ve had to deal within two months, which must be awful. And yes, it’s right that politicians kind of suspend big issues or whatever and let London deal with itself. However, the DUP today have basically, they’ve said that they won’t make an announcement, they don’t agree with any big political announcements being made until at least next week because of this. So they’re already holding, we need a government, they’re supposed to be going, the Queen’s speech was supposed to be Monday, they’d already said that that was going to be postponed, because it takes a week to write the bloody thing down. But Monday, Brexit negotiations were supposed to start. Now, I don’t know if Theresa May can in any way start Brexit negotiations without the Queen’s speech having been announced first, that seems very, you know... especially if she’s not even going to tell us what she’s going to be negotiating on after the public have basically said, we don’t like what you’re doing, and the fact that already the DUP, it’s Arlene Foster who said, you know, no, we’re not going to make this announcement until next week because of the London thing. So they’re already controlling the shots. That worries me. That worries me very much, so, yeah.
I: Oliver, your thoughts on the DUP?
Oliver: I mean, I agree with what other people have said though I don’t think it necessarily matters too much, because obviously things, many of these issues about marriage and abortion and all of the rest of it are devolved matters. So I think they’re just want as much money as they can possibly get, essentially, you know, and that’s probably why they stole[11.26]. I mean, I don’t like them as a party of course, but you know I don’t think they’re, in practice they’re not probably going to be as bad as people think they are, because they’re just... but they’re going to support Tories provided they’re
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paid enough essentially. I think it’s somewhat ironic that, given the way the Tories have attacked the SNP in the last couple of elections about how you can’t have some woman in some foreign country dictating, you know, to us British people about, you know, what decisions are going to be made, and now they’ve got exactly the same position, essentially, you know, so.
I: Yeah, but with ten members.
Alison: There’s only ten of them.
MR: And there aren’t that many votes, I mean the Green Party got more votes, far more votes than they did, for example, you know. But that's the electoral system for you.
I: Yeah, so the next section we ask you to play political pundit a little bit and we ask you to assess how you think the individual parties are, we’ll just focus on four, the big three and the SNP. Justin, starting with the Conservatives, what’s your, if you were to play political punditry, what’s your assessment of where they are post-election?
Justin: I think the DUP thing hasn’t helped. I’m not really sure if I’m kind of really qualified to make these kind of assessments.
I: Well, it’s more your opinion, your perceptions, you know, we won’t quote you in the newspaper, you know.
Justin: Because I’m so kind of anti-Conservative anyway, I’m probably colouring this with my own passions.
I: That's what we want.
Justin: All right, okay. I’m quite grateful for the fact that they’re kind of decreasing in popularity and that they're kind of shooting themselves in the foot a bit, and I’m also very happy with Labour that there seems to be a greater turn out with younger voters. So I think, fingers crossed, they’re going from bad to worse.
Alison: Yeah, I mean, I agree with you. I think Theresa May shot herself in the foot by holding an election in the first place and now she’s just kind of cutting her leg off by getting into bed with the DUP. But when you look at the political map, it’s still mostly blue, and so I think, on the one hand, I keep thinking she may be gone quite quickly, and if she is I’m not sure... if Boris replaced her I think that might be end of them, for the time being. However, at another election I think it could still go either way. I thought that, especially when she announced the thing with the DUP, that if they held another election straightaway, actually, they’d be out, but I’m not a hundred percent certain, because that core support is still there. So, unless Corbyn does something more, we could actually just end up in the same position we’re in now. So I don’t know if they’re on the way. I think they are, they should be, for what they’ve done, and I think let’s see when the Queen’s speech comes, because, if they change their tone enough, it might be that they’ll actually be able to stay there. But I just don’t know. I know what I’d like, but I don’t know.
I: I'll just go back to Justin, because you were nodding quite a lot when Alison was speaking. So I just, you know, want to give a chance to articulate what you were thinking.
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Justin: No, I completely agree. I think if they had another snap election, I think they probably wouldn’t – I think it would still be a hung parliament, I think it’d just be the same situation we’d be in. They’ll probably be looking for another party to jump into bed with. I’d like to think that they’re going from worse to worse. I don’t mean by that, that I think that they’re on their way out, per se, because there are staunch Conservatives who vote Conservative whatever the weather, and they’re not going anywhere fast.
I: Thank you. Oliver, your assessment?
Oliver: I have to sort of agree with what you’ve just said, in a way. I think they’re obviously much weaker than they were before and they have, again, huge internal dissensions, I believe, as well. Even George Osborne called her a “dead woman walking’, for example, and people hate her for what she’s done and people have lost their seats and so on. So they have to try and support her throughout this, they’ve got really no other option, I don't think. They haven’t got another obvious successor. They don’t want another election, because they’re terrified that Labour might win it, which post-election polls would suggest, that Labour actually would win. I mean, it's early days of course, but you don’t want another election. They’re just going to try and soldier on until they can come up with something better, or think they can. It’s going be a very weak government, obviously now. It’ll be difficult for them to get much through the Commons, because back to the DUP, I mean, they’re not going to support some of the Conservative policies, and in some ways they’re actually more on the left in terms of what can only matter is the benefits and so on. So they’re going to struggle. But May has just lost all credibility, not just in public but in her own party. So I don’t know, they’re just going to try keeping going, put on a brave front and pretend business as normal, like she was doing. But, you know, it doesn’t really wash, I don't think.
I: Thank you. Labour.
Justin: I’ve got a lot of people in my family who've worked for the Labour Party in trade unions and things, and they can’t stand Corbyn, and this is what I found interesting, he’s a little bit too left for them. Had I been down South or had I been anywhere else really, or I thought that they were stronger in Scotland, I would have voted for them, without a shadow of a doubt. They did pull their socks up a bit. Corbyn did pull the socks at that last one, and I was actually quite impressed with him, because first of all, he just seemed to be kind of a principled law man, but he’s doing things in a way now that seemed to be appealing against the younger voters which I think was a good tactic. Labour in Scotland, this is the thing, because [18:23] personality, really, is I’m not a fan of Kezia. And it is probably just like a visceral reaction to her face. I mean, when she speaks to us, it just goes right through me, and unfortunately these things do come into account when you vote. They shouldn’t do, but they do. In general, quite optimistic about the poll. I mean, after the last time, you know, they were in power, they did... But again, I should have kind of make this personal, I would like for them to do better but off their own steam, not just because everybody hates the Tories, which seems to be kind of happening.
I: Thank you.
Alison: I listened to all the leaders' debate, I watched just about everything, and each speech that I heard of Corbyn’s I became more impressed with him. He did go from that wet blanket that he used to be, to somebody who, he’s just a great orator, and he’s obviously actually gives a damn about
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people, and that really came across, and I think especially juxtaposed with the Maybot, as they’ve called her, you know, just standing there going "strong and stable, strong and stable, strong and stable" and "trust me". For God’s sake, why? You know, and she kept changing her mind, she’s taking... anyway. So yeah, I was very impressed with that and I’m also impressed with the fact that, well, impressed, I’m glad to see that his party is now rallying around. There’s a couple of dissenters that are making noises but the majority are saying, no, if we’re offered, we will come into the shadow government and all government, etc. So I think they’re definitely on the way up. If he can just perhaps get rid of some of the more left, seriously left-wing policies, to make himself a little bit more mainstream without losing his compassion, I think actually another election, he’d have a very good chance of winning. I would vote for him, but again, there’s no point up here, I don’t think. I think it’s almost a different party. Kezia Dugdale, I agree with you, there are problems with her, unfortunately.
I: Great, Oliver?
Oliver: I think, yeah, I think it’s amazing results for Labour actually. I mean if I was a Labour strategist, this would almost be my perfect dream, because you’ve basically united the party, with a couple of exceptions, but you’re always going to get exceptions. By and large all party, people with their tax and [21.33] the last couple of years are basically now rallying around, so you've essentially got a united party. He's just got better and better and better. I don’t have television so I didn’t see any of the debates, but I did see him on the Andrew Marr show on the Sunday after and I was [21.56], he was like a prime minister.
Alison: Oh, it was a lovely interview …
Oliver: And he was so relaxed and making jokes, he could be prime minister. So his credibility has come through. Any sort of shred of doubt that possibly could be imagined has been thrown out and he’s got through, and that can almost be discounted now in any future election. So yeah, they’ve done very well. Obviously some exception like in Canterbury and …
Alison: Yes, Kensington and Canterbury.
Oliver: So no, I think they’ve done extremely well. I heard somebody from [22.46] talking on the radio on Monday, last Monday I think it was, and she was saying, oh, I had just a few days off but like tomorrow we’re back targeting all the marginals that we’re going to take next time, so.
I: Wow, already.
MR: I don’t know any of the people involved but they seem to be incredibly good at running national campaigns, you know, they’ve got the experience now, because they’re running for Corbyn the first time, Corbyn the second time, now the general election, these people know what they’re doing, and in terms of social media as well, [23.18] campaigning ?? But that’s the key pieces. I hear what you’re saying also about the Scottish Party, that's a different issue. I mean, a mate of mine, we’re talking about before the election and we were both thinking of voting Labour, and he was saying when he got the polling station he was considering why vote Labour and not, you know, and then he has a vision of Kezia Dugdale so he voted for SNP. Sorry, but you know.
I: That’s interesting.
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MR: I think she is... but I’m not sure who necessarily is going to be better but …
I: Well, just as a follow up, it seems to me that there’s a problem with Kezia as leader of the Scottish Labour Party, but in terms of what the Scottish Labour Party is proposing to do as its policies, is there any one thing that you think, if they changed it, they’d be more credible, they’d be more attractive, or is this really about image and how they are being perceived?
Alison: Sorry, but what are their policies?
MR: That the thing, yeah.
Alison: Because the only thing I remember is that she disagreed with Corbyn over Brexit, and that’s the only thing that I can really think of.
MR: Yeah, they seem very similar to the SNP, I think. Their policies, you know, if it wasn’t for [24:40] the parties they could probably get on and more or less agree on the policies, but because of the history and hostility between...
I: Independence.
Alison: Yes. Actually, it was Independence she was disagreeing with him, not with Brexit. But that’s all, I don’t know what other – do they have any other different policies from the main – I mean, if they don’t, that’s not a bad a thing, because actually …
MR: Yeah, it brings them together.
MR: But if they do have separate policies, the campaign wasn’t very positive or proactive, we will do this and we will do that. It’s like the broken record things, like the SNP are doing, this. I think this is one of the things that gets on my nerves about her as well, it’s constant moaning about, "oh, she’s doing that, isn’t that terrible?" rather than say, "well, here’s a problem, how are we going to fix it?" But yeah, nothing comes to mind, I can’t really think of anything that’s Scottish Labour as opposed to just …
I: Labour. So yeah, this is very interesting, because if you want to think, you know, what should they do to get better.
Alison: I think get rid of her and …
MR: And who would you have instead?
Alison: … appoint somebody who’s more charismatic.
MR: Who?
Alison: I have absolutely no idea, because there was only, how many have they got up here now?
MR: Are we talking about MPs?
Alison: Yeah.
MR: You got six I think it was, wasn’t it?
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Alison: I don’t know, but anyway, they don’t have a massive number and I’m not, I don’t know.
MR: I mean, it’s different in the Scottish Parliament, and of course, inevitably, we always mix these things up completely. If you’re talking about education or whatever, the health service, "well actually, this is a [26:25]
Alison: No, I don’t know, just somebody more charismatic.
FR: Anybody more charismatic.
Alison: Perhaps, any, yeah, and make sure that they have, you know, a separate manifesto that comes out. I mean, I’m sure they did, but, despite the fact that I was watching, I really cannot remember very much. I know we had leaflets through the door as well, but, like you, we didn’t get very much from the Tories, we got a couple of things, most of ours will already came around to my house, said hello, he gave me a letter actually addressed to me and to my daughter.
I: Wow.
Alison: That the second time running, had a chat, etc, and that, no doubt, influenced my vote, to a certain extent, but you know, he’s a good guy.
MR: Sorry, was he a LibDem, did you say?
Alison: Yes, he’s the LibDem leader.
I: So can we ask you then, how do you think the Lib Dems did, and we'll start with you, Alison.
Alison: Oh, I’m so upset. The Lib Dems, I mean Coupar, so Northeast, she lost it by two votes. I just felt so sorry for her, you know, I mean, we have Steven Gathington, Steven Gathington is a good guy, actually. He’s been really good in our area, so I don’t have a massive problem with him. But it was just a shame that it was so close, you know. I mean, I like their policies. I’m a life time Lib Dem voter. I will vote Labour tactically, but otherwise, apart from over the tuition fees, which I was at university just after that, so I wasn’t, or was I actually there, I think I was actually there, yeah, but apart from that, I agree with most of what they do and as I say. As I say, Willie Rennie, he’s a good guy. He takes time, he comes round himself and knocks on the door, and he will talk to you and he’s always there to help, so I like him.
I: Oliver, how do you think the LibDems have done, what’s your assessment?
Oliver: They obviously got back, is it three or four seats in Scotland, which, for them, is quite a good result. But then the last time, it was totally unbalanced, they had 56 or 59 for the SNP. But that’s first past the post. But we’re back to more of a probably more accurate mix of Scotland, you know, the mix that we’ve got with Labour, Lib Dems, Tories, as well as the SNP. The Lib Dems, I don t know, they haven’t really impacted me at all, I don’t think I’d even recognise the leader if I meet him, to be honest, you know. Tim Farron, I’d struggle even to recognise him. I mean, they certainly have not really had any particular impact on me, and certainly in Dundee they’ve obviously got no chance, you know, they’re going to be fourth at best. I mean, I suppose, nationally, what do I think about it? Yeah, they did it okay, could have been better. They obviously haven’t made any head rows into recapturing the southwest of England and form strongholds. So they've really got a long way to go, I
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think. It’s been very polarised, this election, the Tory party [30.14] party politics, and we've probably suffered from that as well. I don’t know, they’re currently tootering along, and I quite like some of their policies and that as well, but, again, you know, [30:31] position to vote for these things, you know, it doesn’t really matter, you know, so.
Alison: Yeah, sorry, can I just interject, it’s just something I read today that had it been PR, Lib Dems would have been the kingmakers and I think we would now be looking at a Labour LibDem coalition instead of this chaos, so.
I: Justin, your assessment of the Lib Dems?
Justin: I think they’re absolutely fine. I don’t think anybody expects them to have any great count though. I voted for them before, but that was in 2010, and I was quite up on them and I read all sorts of things, but then they the coalition with the Tories and I didn’t vote for them since. I would like to see them, I mean, I do agree with them on a lot of things as now. I just think that’s the thing, they’re just quite nice. They’re fun, they’re okay, but I don’t think that they’re going to have any real great influence any time soon. I like their policies but I probably wouldn't vote for them again, purely on lacking of principle.
Oliver: I’m not sure that they’re necessarily all that nice. I mean, I think going into coalition with the Tories …
Justin: That was it.
Oliver: ….made me think that they're not actually nice, you know. So I was actually way quite pleased to see Nick Clegg losing his seat, and I cheered that, but the guy that beat him, he’s got some very [0.32.09] is enough, as well, I think, so you know, it was all the better for that.
Justin: I think they probably didn’t know themselves, [32:40]. The way that Tim Farron acts on TV and stuff, there’s a lot of jokes, you know, and I don’t really know how seriously he was kind of taking it during the debates. I’m trying to think of an analogy or a metaphor, but looking back to that as well, they seemed lovely and then I wasn’t too impressed with when they actually got the opportunity to... anyway, that’s my assessment.
I: Thank you. Well, we have SNP left. So what’s your assessment of the SNP ?
Alison: The one thing is Alex Salmond lost his seat, I’m just so pleased, I really detest that man with a vengeance, I’m sorry, but …
MR: Why?
Alison: I think he’s arrogant, he’s very arrogant. I suspect he’s a bit of a drunkard, having actually met him and seen him getting blotto, and I think he’s stuck in the past and I think that’s where he wants to take Scotland. I hated his independence campaign, I hated the way he divided the country and then just threw his toys out of his pram, as he often did, and left everybody to it to get back together. So I’ve got a lot of things against the man, I’m afraid. So I was very pleased to see that. I’m also pleased that they have lost some seats. However, in many ways I do like the SNP. I like most of their policies. I’m concerned about education, etc. and I think perhaps this might just focus Nicola Sturgeon more on the things that matter, because she’s obviously not going to be able to keep
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pushing her independence. I don’t know if that was the problem that she was, you know, distracted, but if it was, then perhaps it might be a good thing, yeah, so.
I: Oliver, yeah?
Oliver: I mean I think it’s always difficult for the SNP in UK elections. I mean, it’s very different than Scottish elections, because what is the point of having SNP MPs almost, you know, unless you can argue that you’re never going to be a government. The best you can maybe hope for is to hold the balance of power and do the DUP [35:12] concessions, you know. So, it’s difficult. What are they standing for, you know. Just because we’re the SNP, so vote for us, really. So I think it’s hard for them. I think, I mean, [35:27] in many ways, you know. This is, what, the second best result ever, they've got more seats than all the others put together, so it’s not exactly a complete disaster, you know. I'd say last time was an aberration. I think I’ll get [0.35.39] is a [0.35.41], because I think he’s been very good at prime minister’s question time, unlike Corbyn or anyone else, you know, people are sort of sharp and listen when he’s asking his questions, because he tend to be serious pointed, and you know, and so even the Tories were just sitting there and listening. So I think he’s going to be [36:02]. Salmond, I’m sure he'll find other things to do.
I: Oh, I’m sure he'll find his way into a few things somehow.
MR: So yeah, I mean, they’re okay, you know, what more can I say, you know. As I said, it’s always difficult. For them, what matters is the next election and possibly Indy ref 2, which I’m not convinced is dead.
Alison: No, I’m not convinced it’s dead, but hopefully it’s on hold for the time being, which is all I was ever hoping for anyway, is, if we have to go through Brexit, let’s get that over and then maybe go through it, yeah, Indyref ….
MR: I don’t think it’s going to be happening any time soon, I mean the Scottish parliament approved it, in a sense back, but they’re never call one unless they really believe they’ve got a strong chance of winning it. So probably it was never going to be very likely in the short line in anyway, I don’t think.
Justin: Yeah, they’d given it two years. But I probably am quite rare, in that I am an SNP voter but I think the independence referendum or should it put back as well, to see things playing out and to see the Tories making an arse of themselves. They actually did better last week than I thought they would. I thought they'd lose more seats, and I do think a big part of it was she brought up independence too quickly. So straightaway, after the Brexit vote, she said it was highly likely. I think had she known that there was a snap election, had she probably known that an election on the cards, she’d probably wouldn’t have brought it up so that she could get the sort of like, from both sides, but nobody’s got a crystal ball. But, for me, the reason I voted for them was, again, I’m quite left wing and I support the idea of independence. That was really as simple as it... I would vote for other parties, I'm not kind of a, you know what I mean, a staunch, like one way their way, but had Labour been stronger and had they not captured, and to me, this is probably because I supported, it was Labour they’re just, but the other parties, they just [38:32] the independence thing and since Ruth Davidson, she’s, Ruth Davidson seems to think that she’s won, because the Conservative, they’ve got some more seats given that they, the Tories ??, SNP got less. She’s the Queen Bee just now when she’s been interviewed and it's like, oh, the people of Scotland have spoken, the SNP
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have had ?? and they’re still the main party here. So maybe that’s how she probably coloured my vote as well, I never really about it, it's just kind of sheer hatred for the others. I mean, I like Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Salmond, I don’t hate him but, hmm, I mean he is kind of arrogant but I actually quite like the thought he probably gets really pissed all the time, because as long he’s not doing it when he’s in parliament, I mean he can do whatever the hell he wants. I mean, Nigel Farage, he’s, you know, he’s kind of got, in his vice like grip, [39.15] a fag and a pint.
Oliver: And they reckon David Coburn put his name in the hat to become leader as well.
Alison: I thought Farage was on his way back from America to take the ground.
MR: [39.34] fair amount from share, hasn’t he?
Alison: Somebody actually said, there’s an election, UKIP are changing their leader again, you know, Farage is out, Farage is back, Farage is out, it’s happened at least three times, hasn’t it? They’re all idiots.
MR: There's not really that many people who are candidates to be a leader of anything in UKIP, so, do you know what I mean, personality wise. Anyway.
I: It will be interesting if David Coburn becomes leader of UKIP of Scotland?
MR: [40.12] that’ll be interesting.
MR: He’s such a sleaze bag, I mean, really.
Alison: They all are. I can kind of see with Farage, and even Nuttall I think to a certain extent, there was some credibility about them, but the rest of them, and you see the things they do, the way they behave, and you think, seriously. I mean they're worse than the DUP in some respects, and that’s saying something. They wanted to bring back hanging and Nuttall was talking about waterboarding, seriously?
MR: I mean, the DUP, they are in government, they have been in government for a long time so they have to be, you know... they may have some nutty ideas or even terrorist connections, but they still …
Alison: They definitely have terrorist connections.
MR: … can behave as a proper government, you know, with [41.04]
MR: And the point of UKIP, they have had their kind of glory now. I mean, I wonder if they’d go through a name change of anything like that in order to kind of like maintain credibility almost. But I mean, once Brexit’s happened, what would be the point of a UK Independence Party.
Alison: It depends what kind of Brexit we get.
MR: Oh right, so it can carry on, going to get a soft Brexit.
Alison: Because one of the things they were talking about, and are talking about at the minute, as are some of the hardliner Euro sceptics in the Tory party, is that she’s going to backpedal and we’re
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going to end up with a soft Brexit perhaps, negotiations around immigration for a single market, etc. in the short-term, and then I mean they seemed to be just xenophobic, so they’ll always have something, except they’re just bigots.
I: Well, this leads us to our next question, which is what effect do you think the results are going to have, and obviously what’s happened since the results, on the Brexit negotiations and, in fact, you highlighted the fact that it, you know, they were scheduled to start on Monday and so, what’s going to happen now? What do you think, what are your impressions, what are your expectations? Alison, do you want to start?
Alison: I’m not sure that I know. I mean, I know what should happen. No, I’ll tell you want I would like to happen. What I would like to happen is what has been mooted but Corbyn has already shot down, actually, is I would like to see this as a cross-party. I would actually like government, at this moment we’ve got a hung parliament, why don’t you shake hands, get together and actually work together, even if you do it for a short period of time, and get Brexit over and done with. If we have to have it, which I still don’t want it, but if we have to have it then, you know, let’s have a cross-party coalition who each can mitigate it, mitigate the other’s excesses, hopefully, and we’ll get something that’s reasonable. What I think will happen, I think May does seem to be having so much problems within her own party, and the louder voices are still looking for a hard Brexit, so there’s a possibility that will still happen. I’m hoping that we will get a soft Brexit. I really don’t know, and again, I think until we hear from the Queen’s speech, I also don’t think she should be allowed to go and negotiate as prime minister at Brexit until after the Queen’s speech has not only been delivered, but voted in, and I don’t know if this is something she’s intending to do or not. She’s saying she’s not going to do [44:03] the Brexit talks, that’s the latest I heard. That, in itself, to me, says that she’s going for the hard Brexit and sod everybody, basically. That’s what I think.
I: Oliver, what do you think?
Oliver: I mean what you said about people getting together, I think, probably most of the country will probably support that. I don’t actually see that happening, as a matter of fact.
Alison: No, I don’t.
Oliver: But it would make sense, because there’s obviously divisions everywhere, you know what I mean, in party as well as across party, probably even more so. I know it’s for the future of the country, then people, well, we should get together and have joint negotiating teams or whatever. Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s going to happen. I don’t know what is going to happen, I don’t know that anybody does. May just keeps going ‘Brexit means Brexit,’ and ‘strong Brexit’, ‘hard Brexit’, ‘soft Brexit’, what does any of that mean? I mean, it’s incredibly difficult, it’s incredibly complex and the other is EU countries are not going to be nice to Britain, they’ve got no reason at all to be nice to Britain. They’re going to make it easy to leave, because other people might then want to leave. So they’ve got no reason to be nice. May’s obviously in a much weaker position, so they can basically just sit there, and whatever she comes up with, and I’ve no idea what that might be, I don’t imagine she does either. They’re just going to say, "well, no, we don’t agree with that", "well, what are you going to do about it?" So I think it’s all going to be, Brexit is going to be a complete disaster. I think, in a way, I was quite pleased that Labour didn’t win, because whoever is in power when all this
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happens is going to get blamed in five years’ time or whatever, and be out of power for a generation when it all goes pear shaped.
I: Justin?
Justin: My gut feeling is that we’re going to have a Brexit in name only or something like that. I think that something will happen just to kind of fob people off. The first thing that came to mind though, is when people were campaigning for same-sex marriage, it was like, "okay, we’ll give you a civil union, okay, will that do?" And something like that, she'll probably just say, "so we'll have Brexit, so we're not part of the EU, but [46:38] at the same time. I can’t see it, well, I’m hoping that it’s not going to be this Theresa May centric, like hard... but it looks like it very much could be.
Oliver: Then back to the DUP and the whole Ireland question again, because they’re for Brexit but they want to keep the open borders. I mean, how’s that going to work out, you know.
I: Alison, you were going to say something?
Alison: No, I mean that worries me, because one of the things they’re talking about is security. If we’re not part of the EU and yet we have an open border in Ireland which people can literally walk across, that in itself, with all the terrorism that we’ve got, it’s a major problem. But has she made any statement at all since she won the election about Brexit? I don’t think she has, other than to say, I’m either postponing it or not postponing it. She hasn’t said anything, has she? Not a thing.
MR: This is why, I think at the back of my mind, I can’t really see it happening, or if it happens then it could kind of just be something like that …
Alison: I think you’re wrong.
MR: Really?
Alison: I think you’re wrong. I think she’s still going for the hard Brexit, because more people in her party of four are hard Brexit than not.
MR: I mean, this is probably just wishful thinking. I think it’s probably because... and this is probably just a spin that she’s doing so it’s not on people’s minds or something like that, but I mean, none of can really be Theresa May and we don't really know what she’s thinking.
Alison: So we don’t get a vote, there’s no more votes on it. She could, as at this moment, just go ahead and do whatever she wants and there’s no... they’re just going to bring it back at the very end to parliament and that’s it.
I: Bring a done deal to parliament and then parliament votes on it.
Alison: Yeah, that’s right, yeah.
MR: But then we still we’d have to get that through, I’m not sure that might ... Labour are going to have a say in this, indirectly, there’s not anything formal… because then, "well, we'll simply vote this down if you don’t get these sort of deals," I mean. I don’t know what will happen, could happen.
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Alison: DUP there could actually do us a favour because they do want a slightly softer Brexit. So it might be that if they are the kingmakers, if they’re the deciding factor in all this, that she has to actually soften it. But the whole of Europe wants that border to be open.
MR: But then that’s open then …
Alison: What’s the point?
MR: …we, the rest of us are open, essentially, what does it mean, you know?
Alison: I mean we’re already not part of Schengen and yet, it is so strange, how can it work now, because I went to Copenhagen and I came back and we had to go through a separate set of security because we’re outside [49:29] zone, but if I go across to Ireland, if I get to Northern Ireland, I walk across the border and then I go from there into Europe, and vice versa, I don’t have to go through any extra security. That’s now. So why they couldn’t keep that open and forget that that back door exists?
I: They might control... so it depends on it if it’s a flight, for instance. So if it’s a domestic, I don’t know how they do it, because I have the same thing, you know, with the UK not being Schengen, I constantly have to go through the thing again. But yeah, it’s going to be incredibly complicated in that way. Then we've got one more question.
So final question, and some of you have already alluded to it, if you put on the radio tomorrow and hear there’s going to be another election.
Oliver: yay!!
I: That’s what I was going to ask you, what is your immediate reaction going to be, and the follow up to that would be how likely do you think you’re going to hear that and how likely is there going to be another election in the next 12 months? Oliver?
Oliver: That’s my initial emotional reaction but …
I: Your initial reaction would be happiness.
Oliver: Oh, absolutely.
I: And why?
Oliver: Why, because I think Labour win it, but that’s tempered by what I just said previously about, you know, Brexit is a hot potato, like part and parcel and whoever is holding it stays, I think. So in a way, I'd be happy for there not to be an election, you know, in that sense, and say well, let the Tories suffer.
I: How likely do you think that there is going to be like one?
Oliver: I don’t think there’s going to be one tomorrow, but I don’t know, in the next 12 months? I think it’s important to say, because they can just soldier on. As I said, then Labour have to decide do they really want an election, do they actually want to win this, because I think you can. I mean obviously they'll have to go for it if it comes up, but is it likely. I think probably it is, actually. So it
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might be next spring or something, we’ll probably soldier on until then. But it's going to be so hard to get anything through, it’s all [52:00] measures. So yeah, it depends how Brexit goes, I suppose, as well. I don’t know, sorry, that’s a bit vague.
I: Justin?
Justin: If this was kind of like the election to end all elections, that would be quite nice, I suppose, I’m getting a bit sick of it. I mean, every time there’s another one, and I think that everybody should vote then they can think of something, you know. So I’m quite kind of impassioned to do it but I mean, it does get very tiring. I’m 50/50 on the likelihood of it, purely because I can’t get my head, I just can’t my head around Theresa May. I can’t, personally I can’t suss her out at all. I don't think anything would surprise me, but I do think, because of these negotiations and things, I think it would be a good idea to try and get a majority government. I think, as we were saying before, I think it’ll just end up the same again. I don’t think anybody will get the majority, unless Labour really up the anti in order to get over that 50% mark. I suppose, in a nutshell, exasperated but stoic.
I: Keep calm and carry on.
Justin: Basically, yeah, but I would love to see an end, I would love to see, I’d like [0.53.34] office, you know, and [0.53.38] and seeing how things are going, you what I mean. But there’ll be something else. People will be voting whether to drain Loch Ness, it’ll be something bizarre, to build a wall around it, I don’t know, something.
Alison: I think it’s more likely that the Tory party will do to May what they did to Thatcher. I think that’s the most likely outcome, and put somebody in. So I’d say about 70-80%, maybe even higher, actually probably higher, I think she will be gone quite quickly, perhaps. I don’t think she will go until she’s pushed but I think they will push her once they think that they can, you know, stay in power. So they need to get somebody they think the public will support. The chances of another election, I think more like 60% or so. I would like another election, actually, because this has solved nothing. We’ve still got, in effect, austerity. I don’t know what’s going to be in the Queen’s speech, I know it is generally going have to be softer, but you know, the things that she’s doing, they’re not going to change them, and I would like to see a Labour government and I’d like to see them get a chance actually to change things. And the other thing that I just wanted to say earlier, I forgot, is one of the things post this election, the difference before and after. Before we had this right-wing politics of hate, and it disappeared, this is one amazing thing between the election results and I think the terrorist attacks and the response to the terrorist attacks. I think that’s dissipated very much and it feels much more like everybody’s kind of coming together again.
I: Well, we can stop on that, really.
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