Week 6 UCSD POLI 11

7/24/2019 Week 6 UCSD POLI 11

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Introduction to

Comparative PoliticsWeek 6Electoral Systems, Part I


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Today

Quiz

Electoral Systems Basics

Return of Papers


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Schedule

Week 6 (this week), Section: Quiz

Week 7, Class: Electoral Systems

Week 7, Section: Electoral Systems

Week 7, Friday (February 19), 4pm-5:30pm:

Review Session, Location: Center Hall 222BRING QUESTIONS!

Week 8, Monday (February 22), Class: Midterm


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Questions?


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Pres/Parl Quiz

Put away notes, laptops, phones

Take out a sheet of paper

2 minutes per question

3 questions


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Question 1

Which of the following characteristics is

uniqueto Presidentialism?

(A) Possibility of single-party cabinets

(B) Popularly-elected legislature

(C) Common origin and survival(D)Possibility of divided government

(E) An executive called president


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Question 2Which of the following statements is true?

(A)In presidential democracies, the cabinet must

sustain the confidence of a majority in thelegislature in order to survive

(B)Presidential democracies break down more

often than parliamentary democracies

(C)It is easier to form a government in a multi-partyparliamentary democracy than in a multi-party

presidential democracy

(D)In parliamentary democracies, the largest party

always forms the government


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Question 3Which of the following is the samein both

majoritarianparliamentary democracies and

consensualparliamentary democracies?

(A)Size of the party system (i.e., number of parties

represented in the parliament)

(B)Whether the executive needs the support of

a legislative majority(C)Possibility of minority rule (minority cabinet)

(D)Ease with which voters identify and punish the

parties responsible for poor performance

(E)Concentration of power


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Electoral Institutions

The set of rules that translate votesinto

legislative seats


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Electoral Districts


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Electoral Districts


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Electoral Districts


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District Magnitude

The number of legislators elected from a district

Country # of Districts Magnitude (M) # of Legislators

United States 435 1 435

Chile* 60 2 120

Turkey 85 2-31 550

Brazil 27 8-70 513

Israel 1 120 120

Examples (Lower Houses)

*1990 to 2018


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Threshold

Turkey, June 2015


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Threshold

Why is the HDP celebrating?

HDP

Turkey, June 2015


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Threshold

The minimum voteshare that a party needs in order to gain

representation in the legislature


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Threshold

The minimum voteshare that a party needs in order to gain

representation in the legislature

Party Voteshare Seats

Christian Democrats 41.5% 311

Social Democrats 25.7% 193The Left 8.6% 64

Greens 8.4% 63

Free Democrats 4.8% 0

Alternative for Germany 4.7% 0

Germany, 2013

Threshold = 5%


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Single-Member Plurality

Also known as first past the post.

One seat per district (M=1); that seat is

allocated to the candidate (party) who got the

most votes in that district.


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Also known as first past the post.

One seat per district (M=1); that seat is

allocated to the candidate (party) who got the

most votes in that district.

Party National Voteshare % Seats

Reds 40% 29%

Greens 45% 57%

Blues 10% 0%

Purples 5% 14%

Can yield verydisproportionate outcomes!


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Party District 1 District 2 District 3 District 4 District 5 District 6 District 7

Reds 45% 44% 55% 30% 43% 38% 28%

Greens 48% 42% 32% 60% 46% 52% 27%

Blues 6% 12% 13% 9% 6% 10% 15%

Purples 1% 2% 0% 1% 3% 0% 30%

WINNER GREENS REDS REDS GREENS GREENS GREENS PURPLES


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Single-Member PluralityIf you are a small party, it helps to have

your vote concentrated in a small number

of districts.

Party Voteshare Seats % of Seats

UKIP 12.7% 1 0.2%Lib Dems 7.9% 8 1.2%

SNP 4.7% 56 8.6%

Greens 3.8% 1 0.2%

Small Parties in the UKs

2015 General Election


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United Kingdom, 2015

Plurality system (singlemember districts) Each party presents a

single candidate in this

constituency Voters in this

constituency vote for the

candidate The candidate with the

most votes in thisconstituency wins the

seat


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India, 2014 Plurality system (single

member districts) Works basically the

same as in the UK Candidates name is in

the left column; partys

symbol is in the right

column


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Proportional Representation

Seats are allocated to parties in proportion to

the parties district voteshares; many seats per

district (M > 1)


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Seats are allocated to parties in proportion to

the parties district voteshares; many seats per

district (M > 1)

Party National Voteshare % Seats

Reds 40% ~40%

Greens 45% ~45%

Blues 10% ~10%

Purples 5% ~5%


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But dont forget the electoral threshold!

Proportional doesnt mean that everyone

gets a seat!

Party Voteshare Seats

AKP 34.3% 363

CHP 19.4% 178

DYP 9.5% 0

MHP 8.4% 0

GP 7.3% 0

DEHAP 6.2% 0

Other 15% 0

Turkey, 2002

Threshold = 10%


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If seats are allocated to parties, which

individualsget those seats?


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Proportional RepresentationClosed List: The partydetermines the order in

which candidates are

elected off of the ballot

(voters cannot change it)

Open List: Voters canvote for individual

candidates on that list and

affect which candidates

get elected off of it


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Proportional RepresentationClosed List: The partydetermines the order in

which candidates are

elected off of the ballot

(voters cannot change it)

Open List: Voters canvote for individual

candidates on that list and

affect which candidates

get elected off of it

The Red Partygets 4 seats in this district

Candidate Closed List Outcome Preference Votes Open List Outcome

Candidate A ELECTED 10,535 ELECTED

Candidate B ELECTED 4,353 NOT ELECTED

Candidate C ELECTED 6,008 ELECTED

Candidate D ELECTED 12,323 ELECTED

Candidate E NOT ELECTED 16,570 ELECTED

Candidate F NOT ELECTED 5,115 NOT ELECTED


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Turkey, June 2015 Closed List PR The ballot lists the names on each partys list, but the

voter can only choose between parties, not candidates


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Uruguay, 2004 Closed List PR Each party prints their

own ballot; voters handin the ballot that

corresponds to the party

they want to vote for

By handing in this ballot,you are saying I want to

elect thislist of names in

thisorder

The guy with themustache (center photo)

determines the order of

this ballot, and thus who

gets elected off of it


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South Africa, 1994 Closed List PR The lists of names arent even

mentioned on the ballot The photos on the right are

the party leaders (do you

recognize Mandela and de

Klerk?)

C l bi 2014


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Colombia, 2014 Open List PR Voters can vote

for individualcandidates (the

little boxes) In doing so, they

are both affecting

the number of

seats the party

gets, and

choosing which

candidates getthose seats

Alternatively,

voters can just

vote for the party


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Chile, 2013 Open List PR (technically)

Magnitude (M) = 2 Each alliance (list) presents two

candidates, from two different parties Voters mustvote for a candidate

Votes poolat the alliance level (list level)


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Mixed Systems

Some seats are elected through single-member districts,

some seats are allocated through proportional representation

Country # SMD Seats # PR Seats Total Seats

Germany 299 299 598

Mexico 300 200 500

Venezuela 110 52 162


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Germany, 2005

Mixed MemberProportional (MMP) District vote on the left;

PR vote on the right Voters cast district and

PR votes separately Split-ticket voting is

possible Proportional outcome

guaranteed (only the PRvote affects party seat-

share)


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Mexico, 2015 Mixed Member

Majoritarian (MMM) Voters cast district and

PR votes simultaneously The party that gets your

district vote also getsyour PR vote

Proportional outcome is

notguaranteed; parties

that do especially well inthe single member

districts can earn extra

seats


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Papers

Max: 95

Median: 89

Mean: 88.2

Min: 75

Per class policy, regrade

requests should be submitted inwriting by Friday, February 19.

The entire paper will be

regraded, and your grade cango either up or down.

Documents

Week 6 UCSD POLI 11