For more information or to subscribe, email ClimateUpdate@daff.gov.au

Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Commodity Price Update 25 November 2010

This report is available from www.abare-brs.gov.au

Summary of key issues • The winter grain harvest has commenced in parts of south-east Australia, with

reports of record high yields.

• Warmer temperatures across parts of south-east Australia are expected to increase locust numbers, with aerial surveillance and spraying continuing.

• A wetter than normal summer is currently forecast for Western Australia and parts of eastern Australia, while drier than normal conditions are favoured for parts of southern Australia (Bureau of Meteorology December 2010 to February 2011 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook).

• Warmer maximum temperatures are expected for parts of south-east Australia during summer, while cooler maximum temperatures are favoured for parts of south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales (Bureau of Meteorology December 2010 to February 2011 Seasonal Temperature Outlook).

• Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by 81 gigalitres or approximately 1 per cent to 78 per cent of total capacity.

• Australian feed wheat prices have declined by around 18 per cent since October 2010 in response to expectations of increased domestic feed wheat supplies.

• The world wheat indicator price was trading around US$283 a tonne in late November, compared with a high of US$314 in September.

2

1. Climate 1.1 Notable events • For the week ending 24 November 2010, rainfall was mostly recorded in the north and north-east of

Australia and in Tasmania, with the heaviest falls recorded along the central Queensland coastline and central Queensland. The highest measured rainfall total for the week was 457 mm, recorded at Mount Charlton on the central coast of Queensland.

• The winter grain harvest has commenced in parts of Victoria and the mid-north of South Australia, with reports of record high yields.

• Warmer temperatures across parts of south-eastern Australia are expected to increase locust numbers this week. Aerial surveillance and spraying is continuing in the region.

• The La Niña conditions influencing rainfall in northern and eastern Australia have weakened slightly, but remain firm across the tropical Pacific region. It is expected that the La Niña event will persist through the southern hemisphere summer and into the first quarter of 2011, according to this week’s ENSO ‘Wrap-up’ released by the Bureau of Meteorology.

• A wetter than normal summer is currently forecast for Western Australia and parts of eastern Australia, while drier than normal conditions are favoured for parts of southern Australia. For the rest of the country, the chances of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall are about the same (Bureau of Meteorology December 2010 to February 2011 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook).

• Maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for parts of south-eastern Australia during summer, while minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across parts of southern Australia and northern Queensland. Cooler maximum temperatures are more likely for parts of south-east Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales (Bureau of Meteorology December 2010 to February 2011 Seasonal Temperature Outlook).

1.2 Rainfall this week For the week ending 24 November 2010, rainfall was mostly recorded in the north and north-east of Australia. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml

Rainfall for the week ending 24 November 2010

3

1.3 Temperature anomalies this week Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum from the long-term average. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information on temperature anomalies, go to www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 23 November 2010

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 23 November 2010

4

1.4 Rainfall outlook The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to also check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 25 November to 2 December 2010

1.5 Seasonal outlook

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall – December 2010 to February 2011

5

Chance of exceeding the average maximum temperature – December 2010 to February 2011

Chance of exceeding the average minimum temperature – December 2010 to February 2011

6

2. Water 2.1 Water availability • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by 81 gigalitres or

approximately 1 per cent to 78 per cent of total capacity. This is a 49 percentage point increase in total storage capacity or a rise of 11 149 GL compared with this time last year.

• The water storage level for the MDB is at its highest level since September 2001 when it was at 77 per cent of total capacity.

• No trade in temporary water allocations occurred in the three major water markets over the past week.

2.2 Water storage in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray-Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 25 November 2010 is shown below. The green line indicates the storage level at the same time last year. The orange line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

7

2.3 Water trading

Pricing ($/ML) of selected temporary trade in allocations, MDBa

Trading Zone (2010) 24 Nov 17 Nov 10 Nov 3 Nov 27 Oct 20 Oct 13 Oct 6 Oct

NSW Murrumbidgee I.A. No trade No trade No trade No trade No trade No trade No trade No trade

VIC 1A Goulburn No trade 44 45 45 52 50 57 60

SA Murray No trade No trade No trade No trade No trade No trade 60 No trade a Last traded prices as at the dates shown. Volume (ML) of selected temporary trade in allocation, MBDb

Trading Zone (2010) 24 Nov 17 Nov 10 Nov 3 Nov 27 Oct 20 Oct 13 Oct 6 Oct

NSW Murrumbidgee I.A. No trade No trade No trade No trade No trade No trade No trade No trade

VIC 1A Goulburn No trade 150 144 100 203 460 260 350

SA Murray No trade No trade No trade No trade No trade No trade 64 No trade b Water traded last week on Waterexchange.

Recent trading (last 12 months)

Historical trading (last 5 years)

Source: Waterexchange. (Note: Data do not include trade through private brokers or other exchanges and trade over recent days; hence prices may differ from those reported above. Price series for Goulburn and SA Murray are very similar and have not been included).

8

3. Commodity prices 3.1 Commodities • The world wheat indicator price was trading around US$283 a tonne, compared with a high of US$314

in September.

• Australian feed wheat prices have declined by around 18 per cent since October 2010 in response to expectations of increased domestic feed wheat supplies.

• The world rice indicator price (Thai 100 per cent B grade free on board) continued to rise, reaching US$530 a tonne, after having started the August-July marketing year at US$450 a tonne. Export availability was reduced after the Pakistan floods earlier in the year.

3.2 Crop indicator prices

9

3.3 Livestock indicator prices