Weekly Cat Report - Aon Benfieldcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/Reports/20160506-1...Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting Weekly Cat Report 4 The early season nature of the

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Weekly Cat Report 2

This Week’s Natural Disaster Events

Event & Region Fatalities Structures/Claims Economic Loss (USD)

Specific Areas

Wildfires - North America - Asia

0

18+

1,600+

Unknown

1.0+ billion

Unknown

Canada

India, Nepal Severe Weather - United States - Asia

6+

23+

Thousands

49,084+

100s of Millions

118+ million

Plains, Midwest, Southeast

China, Myanmar Flooding - Africa - North America

39+ 1+

Thousands

2,000+

Unknown Unknown

Kenya

Haiti, Dominican Republic

Wildfires: A raging wildfire in the Canadian city of Fort McMurray this week led to the largest evacuation in the history of Alberta province. Nearly 88,000 residents were evacuated on May 3-4 as a major wildfire burned entire neighborhoods, business districts, and a portion of Fort McMurray’s downtown. Preliminary reports suggest that more than 1,600 homes and other structures (such as sheds, garages, outbuildings, etc.) were damaged or destroyed. The fire is expected to be one of the costliest disasters in Canada’s history. Details begin on page 3.

Severe Weather: Powerful thunderstorms and flooding rains caused widespread damage across central and eastern sections of the United States this week, leaving at least six people dead. Some of the hardest-hit areas came in the state of Texas, where as much as 7.78 inches (197.6 millimeters) of rain fell in less than an hour in the city of Palestine on April 30. Preliminary data from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) cited 611 reports of tornadoes (16), damaging winds (252) and large hail (342) from April 29 to May 3. Elsewhere, severe weather led to casualties and damage in China and Myanmar. Details begin on page 6.

Flooding: Record rainfall fell across parts of Kenya from April 29 to May 2, leading to at least 39 deaths in eight counties. Much of the damage was focused in the greater Nairobi region, where a multi-story building collapsed. Elsewhere, days of heavy rains caused damage across Hispaniola. Details are on page 7.


Weekly Cat

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Weekly Cat Report 4

The early season nature of the western Canadian wildfires can partially be attributed to the intensity of El Niño during the last several months. Temperatures were above normal during the winter months, which led to a below-average snowpack and brought the arrival of early spring-like conditions. The milder air caused the snowpack to melt much earlier than usual and a lack of precipitation caused soils to dry out and become vulnerable for wildfires.

Environment Canada cited that cooler conditions reached Fort McMurray on May 5, as the omega block broke and slowly migrated eastward, which created more favorable firefighting conditions.

Event Details The cause of the Horse Creek Fire near Fort McMurray currently remains unknown. The rapid spread of the fire on May 3-4 caught many residents by surprise as city officials raced to evacuate all 88,000 residents. Local authorities estimated that 25,000 citizens evacuated north to oil industry sites, while another 35,000 evacuated towards the city of Edmonton. Traffic was bumper-to-bumper on Highway 63 and other major thoroughfares as residents quickly fled Fort McMurray. No fatalities or injuries were directly linked to the fires, which was a testament to officials communicating the severity of the situation to city residents.

The hardest-hit areas of Fort McMurray were on the city’s south side. An initial assessment suggested that 1,600 homes, businesses and other structures had minimally been damaged or destroyed, with many buildings and vehicles burned to their foundations in piles of soot. Entire neighborhoods were completely destroyed as well as pockets of the downtown area. However, it must be stressed that despite some reports, the core of the downtown region had not been affected. The most substantially impacted areas included Waterways, Beacon Hill, and Abasand, where rows of streets showed destroyed structures. As the fire spread towards the Fort McMurray Airport, it caused major damage along Old Airport Road. Transport Canada reported that Nova Hotel, an ATCO Gas building, a maintenance shop, and portions of the airport fire hall were destroyed along the road. The main airport terminal was not damaged, though no flights were taking off or landing. Swaths of infrastructure were also heavily damaged.

Fort McMurray is a major part of Canada’s oil sands industry, and the fires led to the shutdown of production at multiple oil facilities which were located dozens of kilometers (miles) north of the city. No damage had been reported despite the shutdowns, which included such companies as Royal Dutch Shell Canada, Suncor Energy Inc., Husky Energy Inc. and Inter Pipeline. Alberta oil sands are the third-largest reserves of oil in the world behind Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Canada’s total oil sands production is roughly two million barrels a day – much of which is exported to the United States.

Fort McMurray Location Event Notes Waterways 90% homes destroyed Beacon Hill 70% homes destroyed Abasand 50% homes destroyed Wood Buffalo 30 homes destroyed Timberlea 13 trailers destroyed Grayling Terrace 10 homes damaged/destroyed Dickinsfield 2 homes destroyed Thickwood 1 home destroyed Downtown 1 home destroyed Prospect Significant Damage Old Airport Road Serious Damage Draper Under Assessment Gregoire No residences affected Saline Creek No residences affected

Damage in Fort McMurray (Source: @CBCEyeopener)

Data as of May 5 (Source: Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo)


Weekly Cat Report 5

The rapid spread of the fires was also aided by an abundance of boreal forest (such as spruce trees and pine trees) that is very conducive to burning. Given the dry conditions and the availability of significant fuel for the fire(s) to expand, once the fire was ignited and strong wind gusts arrived that tracked it into Fort McMurray, it set the stage for a major and devastating event.

The Alberta government reported that there were more than 1,110 firefighters, 145 helicopters, 138 pieces of heavy equipment, and 22 air trucks fighting at least 49 wildfires; seven of which were considered out of control.

Financial Loss Given the ongoing nature of the event, it remains too early to provide a specific economic or insured loss at this time. However, it is expected that once assessments are finalized, the Horse Creek Fire in Fort McMurray will end as one of the costliest natural disasters in Canada’s history.

Insurance industry officials in Canada report that home insurance typically provides coverage for property, indoor contents and living expenses incurred by policyholders while being unable to stay at the residence. Businesses are also able to purchase insurance that protects from any lost sales or earnings due to interruption from catastrophe events.

The current record for costliest Canadian wildfire was the Slave Lake Fire that damaged or destroyed 522 homes and structures in May 2011. That fire caused more than CAD700 million (USD680 million) in nominal insured losses, and at the time, was the second-costliest event in the history of Canada’s insurance industry. Overall economic losses in the Slave Lake Fire were greater than USD1.0 billion.

It is worth noting that the average price of homes in Fort McMurray is much higher than those in Slave Lake. Data from the Fort McMurray Real Estate Board in February 2016 cited that the cost of a single-family home was CAD627,150 (USD487,307). This compares to an average home price of CAD300,000 (USD233,118) in Slave Lake, as per the Slave Lake government.

Costliest Canadian Insured Events (Actual Loss) 1) Alberta Floods (June/July 2013): CAD1.7 billion (USD1.65 billion) 2) Ontario & Quebec Ice Storm (January 1998): CAD1.6 billion (USD1.1 billion) 3) Toronto SCS & Floods (July 2013): CAD900 million (USD860 million) 4) Slave Lake Fire (May 2011): CAD700 million (USD680 million)

Satellite image of the fires in Fort McMurray (Source: NASA)


Weekly Cat Report 6

India & Nepal The combination of well above normal temperatures and a lack of rainfall led to worsening forest fires across parts of northern India and Nepal this week. At least 18 people have died (11 in Nepal; 7 in India) since the fires began in February. Some of the worst impacts occurred in the Indian state of Uttarakhand, where local officials note that more than 2,000 hectares (4,900 acres) of forestry has burned. There has yet to be a number of impacted structures released by the government at this time, though it was reported on May 2 that several of the largest and most threatening blazes had been contained by firefighters.

The number of reported forest fires for the year in Uttarakhand was already nearly 1,700 – which is 721% higher than the 207 in all of 2015. Additional fires in India were noted in the state of Himachal Pradesh. India historically sees a spike in forest fires as temperatures steadily rise from the middle of March until the typical start of the rainy season in June.

Similar forest fire impacts were noted in Nepal. The government reported that more than 280,000 hectares (692,000 acres) of land had been charred, with containment largely minimal.

Spring storms bring further hail & flood damage to the U.S. Powerful thunderstorms and flooding rains caused widespread damage across central and eastern sections of the United States this week, leaving at least six people dead. Some of the hardest-hit areas came in the state of Texas, where as much as 7.78 inches (197.6 millimeters) of rain fell in less than an hour in the city of Palestine on April 30. Preliminary data from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) cited 611 reports of tornadoes (16), damaging winds (252) and large hail (342) from April 29 to May 3.

The prolonged stretch was spawned by the presence of a slow-moving upper level area of low pressure that initially developed in the Four Corners before slowly starting to track through the Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. A surface low and associated surface front also accompanied this larger weather pattern. With an abundance of moisture and well above normal temperatures fueling the system, it set the stage for several days of excessive rainfall and powerful thunderstorms.

More than a dozen states reported varying levels of structural and business damage resulting from up to baseball-sized hail and winds gusting beyond 70 mph (110 kph). Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, and Maryland were among the states with the most significant damage. Total economic and insured losses were expected to reach well into the hundreds of millions (USD).

Satellite showing smoke from forest fires in India & Nepal (Source: NASA)

SMOKE

Daily rainfall total on April 30 (Source: NOAA)


Weekly Cat Report 7

Storms leave dozens dead in Asia

China Periods of severe weather brought high winds, large hail and flash flooding across 15 separate Chinese provinces from May 1-5, killing at least four people and injuring dozens of others. A combined 31,500 homes were damaged or destroyed, with much of the damage noted in Liaoning province (27,200 homes alone). The inclement weather downed trees and power lines, while also ripping roofs off of homes and other structures. The heavy rain and hail left thousands of hectares (acres) of cropland damaged as well. Total economic losses were listed at CNY740 million (USD115 million).

Myanmar A week of strong thunderstorms spawned major damage across northern Myanmar, killing at least 18 people and injuring 24 others. Among the hardest-hit areas came in the city of Mandalay (the country’s second-largest city) where high winds ripped off roofs and toppled trees in nearly every township. Local government officials cited that at least 17,584 homes and structures had been damaged or destroyed, which included schools and monasteries. The event additionally killed 1,410 cattle. Total economic damage to homes was listed at MMK3.13 billion (USD2.6 million).

Flooding leads to casualties in Kenya & Hispaniola

Kenya Record rainfall fell across parts of Kenya from April 29 to May 2, leading to at least 39 deaths in eight counties. Much of the damage was focused in the greater Nairobi region, where local officials reported that 80 millimeters (3.15 inches) of rain fell in a 72-hour period that led to flash flooding and overflowing rivers. Many of the fatalities resulted from the collapse of the multi-story building in Nairobi’s Huruma that fell during the flood event due to poor construction. As many as 80 people are believed to remain trapped in the rubble. Nationwide, more than 2,000 homes were damaged or destroyed as several rivers (including the Kolotum and Mutoine) swelled over their banks. Swaths of infrastructure and agriculture

The severity of the damage in Nairobi can be directly attributed to poor infrastructure. The region’s drainage system is marked by unsupervised, poorly constructed and undersized drainage pipes tha tare incapable of handling large rainfall events.

Hispaniola Torrential rains fell across parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from April 27 to May 1, leading to the death of at least one person. The rains left more than 2,000 homes damaged or destroyed as rivers burst their banks and landslides caused the collapse of buildings. The Dominican Republic’s National Meteorological Office reported that Sabana de Mar in Hato Mayor province recorded 257.7 millimeters (10.15 inches) of rain alone on April 27. In total, parts of at least 11 provinces were damaged by varying levels of floodwaters. Similar damage was noted in Haiti, where rivers in the Ouest and Center departments overflowed. Widespread infrastructure damage was noted in the Port-au-Prince suburb of Petionville.


Weekly Cat Report 8

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Flooding (Myanmar) Prolonged rain from May 1-2 led to flash flooding in parts of northern Myanmar’s Kachin state. There were no immediate reports of casualties. More than 545 families were left homeless – 450 in Myitgyina district and 95 in Chibwe township – after flash floods washed away homes. Landslides made recovery difficult after debris blocked crucial roadways.

Flooding (Somalia) Torrential rains on April 30 led to flash floding and overflowing rivers in northern Somalia. At least three people were killed. The floods were heaviest in the northwestern region of Awdal after a local creek burst its banks and swept through the village of Fiqi Adan. Hundreds of homes were destroyed. Elsewhere, floods impacted the region of Somaliland and El Amhar as hundreds of residents were left homeless. Areas along the Juba and Shabelle rivers were hardest-hit.

Flooding (China) Heavy rain swept across several Chinese provinces from April 28 to May 3, causing widespread flood and landslide damage. The Ministry of Civil Affairs cited that the greatest impacts were found in parts of Xinjiang, Jiangxi, Hubei, Guangdon, and Chongqing provinces as more than 6,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. Thousands of hectares (acres) of cropland was additionally submerged by floodwaters. Total economic losses were listed at CNY203 million (USD31 million).


Weekly Cat Report 9

Current Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (°C)

Select Global Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp (°C) Departure from

Last Year (°C)Eastern Pacific Ocean (555 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 29.3 -0.2

Niño3.4 region (2°N latitude, 155°W longitude) 29.1 +0.1

Western New Guinea (250 miles NE of Manokwari, New Guinea) 30.0 +0.8

Solomon Islands (130 miles NNW of Nukiki, Solomon Islands) 30.3 0.0

Sources: NOAA, NESDIS, National Data Buoy Center

El Niño Update El Niño conditions are present, but are weakening.

Positive equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.

El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through Northern Hemisphere spring (Southern Hemisphere summer), with a likely transition to ENSO-neutral conditions anticipated during the Northern Hemisphere late spring or early summer (Southern Hemisphere fall or winter).

There is an an increasing chance that La Niña conditions will develop during the second half of the year.

Source: Climate Prediction Center


Weekly Cat Report 10

Current Global Tropical Cyclones

Location and Intensity Information

* TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Name* Location Winds Center of Circulation Motion**



Global Tropics Outlook



Weekly Cat

Earth

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Source: Unit

Date 04/29/16

04/30/16


Report

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U.S. Weather Threat Outlook

Potential Threats An advancing storm system is poised to bring a risk of severe weather across much of the Plains,

Midwest and Mississippi Valley over the weekend into early next week. Heavy rains will also accompany the area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary. A separate system will spawn heavy precipitation chances in the northern Rockies.

Behind the main storm system, much drier and windier conditions will lead to an enhanced wildfire threat in the Desert Southwest on Sunday.

Recent heavy rains have led to elevated river levels across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Rockies.

Severe drought conditions linger across parts of the West, most notably in California. No significant precipitation is expected in the next week.



Weekly Cat

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23.00

26.00

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28.87

5.77

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36.57

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14

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144%

143%

141%

139%



Source Information Raging wildfire leads to Alberta’s largest evacuation in history

1,600 structures lost in Fort McMurray as fire consuming city grows to 10,000 acres, National Post Giant Fort McMurray wildfire has a name but no clue what started it, Edmonton Journal Why the fire engulfed the city within hours, Global News Canada wildfires force evacuation, hampering oil-sands operations, The Wall Street Journal Alberta wildfire set to be Canada’s costliest natural disaster, Reuters Nepal, northern India battle worst forest fires in years, Reuters Around 3,000 acres of forest destroyed, The Indian Express 7 die in forest fires in northern India, Xinhua News Agency Fort McMurray fire forces state of emergency, evacuations, The Weather Network Environment Canada Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo

Spring storms bring further flood & hail damage to the U.S.:

Weekend flooding kills 6 in Palestine, Texas, Weather.com Articles from The Associated Press, USA Today, Reuters U.S. Storm Prediction Center U.S. National Weather Service

Storms leave dozens dead in Asia:

Strong wind kills 18, injures 24 in Myanmar’s Mandalay, Xinhua News Agency China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs

Flooding leads to casualties in Kenya & Hispaniola:

Kenya: 19 dead as rains pound country, All Africa Expect more floods in Nairobi, Kidero warns city residents, Kenya Daily Nation Floods in West, Center and Nippes, Haiti Libre Floodlist.com

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief:

Flash flood leaves over 500 homeless in northern Myanmar state, Xinhua News Agency China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs Floodlist.com



Contact Information

Steve Bowen Director / Meteorologist Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting +1.312.381.5883 [email protected] Claire Darbinyan Senior Analyst / Meteorologist Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting +65.6645.0110 [email protected]



About Aon Benfield

Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com.

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No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances.

Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at impactforecasting.com.

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Weekly Cat Report - Aon Benfieldcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/Reports/20160506-1...Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting Weekly Cat Report 4 The early season nature of the