Weekly Market Revie€¦ · CONTENTS International Equity Markets GCC Equity Currencies Commodities Interest Rates Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

Weekly Market Review 2nd August 2015 – 8th August 2015

CONTENTS

International Equity Markets

GCC Equity

Currencies

Commodities

Interest Rates

Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

US employers added 215,000 jobs in Jul after adding 231,000 jobs in Jun. Jobless rate held at 7-year low of 5.3%

New orders for US factory goods rose 1.8% in Jun vs. a decline of 1.1% in May, led by 65.4% surge in aircraft orders

Institute for Supply Management national factory activity index slipped to 52.7 in Jun from 53.5 in May

Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index jumped to 143.3 in Jun from 131 in May

Consumers borrowed $20.7bn in Jun, bringing total consumer borrowing to a record $3.42tn

Markit/JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index rose to 53.4 in Jul from 53.1 in Jun as business growth pick up

S&P: Global capital spending is set to fall by 1% in 2015 & 4% in 2016 as a commodities sell-off hits confidence

UN FAO’s global food price index slipped 1% MoM to 164.6 in Jul, driven by hefty overall supplies and soft demand

Markit final Eurozone Jul composite PMI beat earlier estimate of 53.7 to reach 53.9, falling short of 54.2 in Jun

German industrial production unexpectedly declined 1.4% in Jun after rising a revised 0.2% in May

Markit’s final composite PMI held steady at 53.7 in Jul, indicating private sector continued to grow

Markit/CIPS UK services sector PMI fell to 57.4 in Jul from 58.5 in Jun, expansion still among fastest in Eurozone

Trade deficit widened to £1.60bn in Jun from £885mn in May, 2Q2015 trade deficit narrowed QoQ

Greek consumer prices fell for a 29th month by 1.3% in Jul as prices get hit by wages, pension cut &deep recession

Greece made €186.3mn interest payment due on Aug 6, avoiding another default as it negotiates a 3rd rescue plan

The Bank of Japan left the monetary base expansion unchanged at an annual ¥80tn, matching forecasts

Markit/Nikkei services PMI fell to 51.2 in Jul from 51.8 in Jun, suggesting moderate rebound in economy

Chinese manufacturing contracted more than earlier estimate as Caixin/Markit PMI fell to 47.8 in Jul vs. 49.4 in Jun

Exports slid 8.3% & imports fell 8.1% YoY in Jul versus exports rising 2.8% & imports falling 6.6% in Jun

Brazil industrial output slipped 0.3% MoM in Jun after a 0.6% decline in May. Capital goods output fell 3.3% in Jun

Australia’s central bank cut 2016 growth outlook to 2.5-3.5% from 2.75-3.75% to reflect slower population growth

S&P 500 – 1 year performance Euro Stoxx 600 – 1 year performance

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking; *Current

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS

Last Close 5 Day % YTD % P/E (2015) *Div. Yield

S&P 500 2,077.57 -1.25 0.91 17.54 2.05

DJI 17,373.38 -1.79 -2.52 15.68 2.43

Nasdaq Comp 5,043.54 -1.65 6.49 22.14 1.20

Euro Stoxx 600 397.07 0.18 15.92 16.83 3.25

FTSE 100 6,718.49 0.33 2.32 16.43 3.83

Dax 11,490.83 1.61 17.19 14.36 2.58

CAC 40 5,154.75 1.42 20.64 16.68 2.97

Nikkei 225 20,724.56 0.68 18.76 19.64 1.42

Hang Seng 24,552.47 -0.34 4.01 11.91 3.35

Brazil - Bovespa

48,577.32 -4.50 -2.86 13.00 3.94

Russia - Micex 1,690.44 1.28 21.04 6.31 4.77

BSE Sensex 28,236.39 0.43 2.68 16.78 1.33

Shanghai Comp 3,744.21 2.20 15.75 15.42 1.71

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking

Damac Properties net income soared 207% YoY in 2Q2015 to AED1.42bn, BoD recommend 10% dividend and bonus

Emaar Properties recorded AED1.18bn net profit in 2Q2015 as compared to AED1.02bn in 2Q2014

Emirates Integrated Telecom. 2Q2015 earnings slid 8.3% YoY to AED502mn, BoD propose AED0.23/share dividend

Utico Middle East signed agreement with Spain’s Grupo Cobra to establish AED719mn desalination plant in the UAE

Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange eyes expansion through the launch of derivatives market in the next few years

Aldar Properties 2Q2015 net profit grew 18.5% YoY to AED599mn, revenue slumped 49.6% YoY to AED1.11bn

RAK Ceramics said on Aug 5 it fully acquired its subsidiary in Iran, seeking opportunities after Tehran’s nuclear deal

Air Arabia reported 13.6% YoY drop in 2Q2015 net profit to AED146.2mn. Revenue slipped 6% YoY to AED860mn

ADNOC Distribution reduced retail price of 25lbs LPG cylinder to AED27 from earlier AED28

Noor Bank’s 1H2015 bottom-line jumped 26% YoY to AED272mn. Total assets grew 28% YTD to AED37.3bn

Etihad Etisalat (Mobily) reported a net loss of SAR900.9mn in 2Q2015 vs. a net profit of SAR92.5mn in 2Q2014

Arabian Aramco Total Services Co. reported SAR748.7mn net income in 2Q2015 vs. SAR334.3mn net loss in 2Q2014

Kuwait Reinsurance’s shareholders approved Al Ahleia Insurance’s bid to raise its stake from 30% to around 92%

Kuwait’s Al Ahli bank received Egypt’s central bank approval to buy 98.5% stake in Piraeus Bank Egypt for $150mn

Majan Electricity signed 9 agreements exceeding OMR7mn relating to establishment, expansion of power stations

Al Hassan Eng. received letter of intent from Hyundai Eng. & Const. for $9mn instrumentation work

Doha Bank signed a QAR2.2bn project finance deal with Leighton Contracting Qatar to build mega water reservoirs

Industries Qatar bottom-line jumped 17.5% YoY to QAR1.47bn while top-line fell 13.4% YoY to QAR1.58bn

Qatar’s Masraf Al Rayan signed QAR1.8bn financing agreement for logistics areas project in Al Wakra zone

Bahrain Telecommunications Company’s 2Q2015 earnings jumped 27.5% YoY to BHD13.3mn. Revenue fell 5.1% YoY

Bahrain’s Gulf Finance House changed its name to GFH Financial Group with effect from Aug 4, 2015

Last Close 5 Day % YTD % P/E (2015) *Div. Yield

Dubai 4,123.34 -0.48 9.26 12.63 6.31

Abu Dhabi 4,835.47 0.03 6.77 11.43 4.68

Saudi Tadawul 8,654.64 -4.88 3.86 15.34 3.11

Qatar Index 11,770.25 -0.13 -4.20 13.22 4.30

Kuwait Index 6,249.34 -0.07 -4.38 - 4.24

Oman MSM 30 6,430.29 -1.95 1.37 11.26 3.87

Bahrain All Share

1,333.02 0.10 -6.56 - 5.27

Egypt EGX 30 8,114.08 -0.95 -9.10 11.61 1.68

Istanbul 100 Index

78,427.06 -1.86 -8.51 10.15 3.14

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking; *Current

DFMGI – 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul – 1 year performance

GCC EQUITIES


The US dollar posted a weekly gain, appreciating against major currencies as a report showed another month of 200,000-plus jobs gains and the unemployment rate remained at a 7-year low, supporting cause for higher rates

Canadian dollar weakened 0.31% against US dollar in the week as weak oil prices and a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada over next 12 months continue to hurt sentiment in Canada's currency

An IMF staff report said on Aug 4 that global lender should put off any move to add Chinese yuan to its Special Drawing Rights currency basket until September 2016

Australian dollar strengthened 1.5% against US dollar this week as the Reserve Bank of Australia, in its quarterly report, omitted a prediction that a further drop in the currency was both likely and necessary

Brazil’s real depreciated 2.5% from Jul 31 against US dollar after a poll data showed President Rousseff’s approval rating continued to deteriorate, raising fears of greater political turbulence and weaker economic discipline ahead

Russian ruble recorded a decline of 3.75% this week against US dollar, extending a recent rout as the price of crude oil fell toward $48 a barrel and appeared to be heading for a 2015 bottom

Indian rupee appreciated 0.5% in the week against US dollar on speculation policy makers will ease curbs to allow global funds to buy more of the nation’s debt

Last Close 5 Day % 1 Mth. % YTD % 1 Year %

USD Index 97.5630 0.23 0.72 8.08 19.67

EUR/USD 1.0967 -0.15 -0.40 -9.35 -17.94

GBP/USD 1.5491 -0.84 0.19 -0.55 -7.97

USD/JPY 124.2400 0.28 1.39 3.72 21.68

USD/CHF 0.9839 1.82 3.94 -1.05 8.25

USD/CAD 1.3131 0.31 3.35 12.99 20.18

USD/BRL 3.5072 2.51 10.07 31.97 52.81

USD/RUB 64.0197 3.75 12.89 5.41 76.28

USD/INR 63.8150 -0.50 0.56 1.22 4.22

USD/CNY 6.2097 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.79

USD/AUD 1.3479 -1.52 0.45 10.13 24.97

EUR/USD – 1 year performance GBP/USD – 1 year performance


CURRENCIES


Brent crude as well as WTI crude futures dropped 6.9% each as oilfield services firm Baker Hughes' reported US oil rig count rose by six this week and signaled production could creep up from higher drilling activity

Gold prices slid 0.16% from Jul 31 after a solid US monthly jobs report strengthen bets of rates rising in Sep 2015. Higher rates are a boon for US dollar but a drag on dollar-denominated commodities like gold

Copper futures slid 1.3% in the week as an unexpected drop in German industrial production spurred concern that growth is slowing in Europe’s largest economy

ICE sugar futures fell 4.3% in the week, pressured by weak Brazilian currency and expectations of strong cane crush figures next week on the back of recent drier weather in top-grower Brazil

Palm-oil futures lost 4.2% in the week as a Reuters poll showed palm-oil stocks in world’s no. 2 producer Malaysia likely rose in Jul as output picked-up while a lower export demand added to inventory levels

Shanghai steel rebar futures jumped 9.3% from Jul 31 as firmer spot prices suggested Chinese demand could be increasing ahead of curbs, to be imposed from Aug 20, that may cut near-term output

Frozen concentrated orange juice futures on US ICE exchange climbed 7.2% during the week after it broke a key resistance level on Aug 5 as traders bet prices will rise with the height of hurricane season beginning in Atlantic


Brent – ICE 48.61 -6.90 -14.49 -15.21 -53.90

WTI – Nymex 43.87 -6.90 -16.17 -17.65 -54.93

Gold Spot 1,094.05 -0.16 -5.31 -7.66 -16.65

Silver Spot 14.83 0.29 -1.66 -5.59 -25.74

Copper - CMX 233.25 -1.31 -4.83 -17.45 -26.56

S&P GSCI Spot Index

365.42 -3.43 -10.72 -12.60 -40.98

Baltic Dry Index 1,200.00 6.10 44.58 53.45 56.86

WTI Crude – 1 year performance GOLD – 1 year performance


COMMODITIES


US treasury two-year yield rose 5.6 bps this week to 0.7% as US jobs gain in July bolstered the Federal Reserve’s position that economy is strong enough to withstand an interest rate increase this year

German 10-year government bonds slid from Jul 31, sending yield 1.7 bps higher to 0.66% as the euro area’s economy showed signs of recovery, even as inflation remained almost non-existent

The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in Aug and announced no change to its £375bn asset purchase facility program, in a widely expected move

China’s seven-day repurchase rate swaps fell 2 bps this week to 2.42%, capping their first weekly drop in five on bets the central bank will ensure an ample cash supply as the economy keeps slowing

The Reserve Bank of India kept the interest rates unchanged on Aug 4 at 7.25% after three cuts in 2015, rebuffing pressure from the Finance Ministry to reduce borrowing costs that are among the highest in Asia

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate (cash) steady at a record low of 2% on Aug 4, a widely expected decision as it waits to judge the impact of past easing

The Central Bank of Kenya surprised the market by leaving its main lending rate unchanged at 11.5% to allow previous increases to work through the economy as inflation eased to a four month low of 6.6% in Jul vs. 7% in Jun

Saudi Arabia plans to raise $27bn through bonds by 2015-end, a stark sign of strain on its finances due to lower oil


USD-10yr 2.16 -0.82 -4.25 -0.41 -10.33

USD-2yr 0.72 8.52 22.51 7.89 67.30

Fed Funds Rate 0.14 75.00 7.69 133.33 55.56

USD-3m Libor 0.31 0.97 10.01 21.91 33.68

USD-6m Libor 0.51 4.11 14.76 40.59 55.36

German-10yr 0.66 2.64 2.80 22.18 -37.76

UK-10yr 1.85 -1.81 0.82 5.24 -25.54

Japan-10yr 0.41 2.22 -8.41 28.57 -20.69

AED-3m EIBOR 0.80 4.70 5.69 17.51 10.30

AED-6m EIBOR 0.93 1.87 2.68 10.32 3.00

US 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance


INTEREST RATES


Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Kazakhstan -7.74% -7.66%

2 Saudi Arabia -4.88% -4.88%

3 Brazil -4.50% -6.83%

4 Mongolia -3.27% -3.44%

5 Peru -3.16% -3.51%

6 Russia -3.07% -3.07%

7 Slovenia -3.04% -3.19%

8 Vietnam -2.79% -2.77%

9 Taiwan -2.57% -2.48%

10 Malaysia -2.35% -4.72%

Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Cyprus 4.67% 4.51%

2 Nigeria 4.18% 4.08%

3 Slovakia 3.41% 3.25%

4 Jamaica 2.56% 2.69%

5 Luxembourg 2.46% 2.30%

6 China 2.20% 2.20%

7 Estonia 2.13% 1.97%

8 Laos 1.67% 1.67%

9 Namibia 1.62% 2.06%

10 Germany 1.61% 1.45%

WEEKLY

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Venezuela 295.28% 295.28%

2 Hungary 35.22% 24.82%

3 Denmark 33.96% 21.19%

4 Jamaica 32.27% 29.29%

5 Argentina 30.17% 19.59%

6 Malta 26.93% 15.07%

7 Ireland 26.02% 14.24%

8 Italy 24.68% 13.03%

9 France 20.64% 9.36%

10 Japan 18.76% 14.50%

YTD

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Peru -21.53% -26.99%

2 Greece -18.14% -25.79%

3 Kazakhstan -15.66% -18.04%

4 Colombia -14.69% -30.98%

5 Mongolia -10.06% -14.46%

6 Taiwan -9.29% -9.26%

7 Nigeria -9.28% -16.41%

8 Egypt -9.10% -16.95%

9 Bulgaria -8.80% -17.36%

10 Indonesia -8.74% -16.51%

EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 WTI Crude -6.90%

2 Brent Crude -6.90%

3 Tin -6.13%

4 Gasoil -4.35%

5 Sugar -4.31%

6 Palm Oil -4.20%

7 Natural Gas -3.99%

8 Cocoa -3.18%

9 Ethanol -2.99%

10 Zinc -2.87%

Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Steel Rebar 9.30%

2 Orange Juice 7.16%

3 Natural Gas 3.02%

4 Soybeans 2.88%

5 Lumber 2.74%

6 Live Cattle 2.66%

7 Wheat 2.25%

8 Coffee 2.04%

9 Feeder Cattle 1.61%

10 Lead 1.59%

WEEKLY

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Gasoline 13.53%

2 Cocoa 6.77%

3 Cotton 4.15%

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

YTD

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Nickel -28.71%

2 Sugar -26.58%

3 Palladium -24.63%

4 Coffee -23.29%

5 Lumber -21.78%

6 Tin -21.13%

7 Platinum -20.26%

8 Natural Gas -18.37%

9 WTI Crude -17.65%

10 Copper -17.45%

COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


IMPORTANT NOTICE

This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc (“Mashreq”) in the United Arab Emirates (“U.A.E.”). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq’s prior express consent.

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Weekly Market Revie€¦ · CONTENTS International Equity Markets GCC Equity Currencies Commodities Interest Rates Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most