Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
Weekly Market Update 3-23-17
©2017·PhoenixCapitalResearch,PhoenixCapitalManagementInc.AllRightsReserved.Protectedbycopyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be usedpursuanttothesubscriptionagreementandanyreproduction,copying,orredistribution(electronicorotherwise, including on theworld wideweb), inwhole or in part, is strictly prohibited without theexpresswrittenpermissionofPhoenixCapitalManagementInc.·AllRightsReserved.
Disclaimer: The informationcontainedon thisnewsletter is formarketing purposesonly.Nothingcontained in this newsletter isintendedtobe,norshallitbeconstruedas,investmentadvicebyPhoenixCapitalResearchoranyofitsaffiliates,norisittoberelieduponinmakinganyinvestmentorotherdecision.Neithertheinformationnoranyopinionexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutesandoffertobuyorsellanysecurityorinstrumentorparticipateinanyparticulartradingstrategy.Theinformationinthenewsletterisnotacompletedescriptionofthesecurities,marketsordevelopmentsdiscussed. Informationandopinionsregardingindividualsecuritiesdonotmeanthatasecurityisrecommendedorsuitableforaparticularinvestor.Priortomakinganyinvestmentdecision,youareadvisedtoconsultwithyourbroker,investmentadvisororotherappropriatetaxorfinancialprofessionaltodeterminethesuitabilityofanyinvestment.OpinionsandestimatesexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutePhoenixCapitalResearch'sjudgmentasofthedateappearingontheopinionorestimateandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisinformationmaynotreflecteventsoccurringafterthedateortimeofpublication.PhoenixCapitalResearchisnotobligatedtocontinuetoofferinformationoropinionsregardinganysecurity,instrumentorservice.Informationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesconsideredreliable,butitsaccuracyandcompletenessarenotguaranteed.PhoenixCapitalResearchanditsofficers,directors,employees,agentsand/oraffiliatesmayhaveexecuted, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on thisnewsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. SecuritiesproductsarenotFDICinsured,arenotguaranteedbyanybankandinvolveinvestmentrisk,includingpossiblelossofentirevalue.Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability forinvestment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is notresponsibleforthecontentofothernewsletterstowhichthisonemaybelinkedandreservestherighttoremovesuchlinks.OmniSansPublishingLLCandthePhoenixCapitalResearchLogoareregisteredtrademarksofPhoenixCapitalResearch.OmniSansPublishingLLC-POBOX2912,Alexandria,VA22301
3
1
Thepost-electionnightrallyisnowrapidlyunwinding.AsI’vepointedoutagainandagain,thisentiremovewasdrivenbyinterventioninthecurrencymarkets,namely,byrampingthe$USD/JapaneseYenpair.Wellthatrampingisnowofficially,over.The$USD/Yenpairhasrolledoverandtakenoutcriticalsupport.
Thistellsus,pointblank,thatstocksareonborrowedtime.Indeed,theretailsectorhasalreadyunwoundtheentiremovesinceNovember2016.Somuchforthenotionthat“theUSconsumerisback.”
Weekly Market Update 3-23-17
4
2
Indeed,bythelookofthings,retailasawholeinadeathspiral.Belowisthenumberofstoreclosingsformajorbrands.PartofthisistheimpactofAmazon.TheotherpartisthefactthattheUSeconomyhasrolledover.
5
3
IntermsofmarketactiontheretailsectorasawholeissportingamassiveHeadandShoulderspattern.We’llprobablynottakeoutthatnecklineonthefirsttry,butanyonewhoisbettingontheUSconsumercomingbackinabigwayislikelyinforarudesurprise.
6
4
Notfarbehindretailersarethebanks.Sinceelectionnight,thefinancialmediahasbeenproclaimingthatBankswillbethesinglebestsectortoown.Thereasoningforthisisthatbanksmaketheirmoneyfromthespreadbetweentheinterestratetheypaydepositorsonsavingsandtheinterestratetheyearnontheirloans…andwearesupposedlyinarisingrateenvironmentwhichwillleadtogreaterbankprofits.Thebelowchartarguesotherwise.StartinginearlyFebruary(incidentallythisisaroundthetimetheFed’sGDPmodelbeganforecastingacollapseingrowth)bankstockshavebeencollapsing.TheyarenowatCRITICALsupport.Oncewetakeoutthisline,Bankswillcrash.
7
5
Bearinmind,thattheBanksleadthegeneralmarketduringthepost-electionmovehigher.Theyarenowdoingthesametothedownside.
8
6
Thepictureisevenmorebrutalforregionalbanks.SupportisLONGgone.Thisbouncewon’tlasteither.
Anothersectorthatiscalling“BS”onthewholenarrativeofrisingratesisUtilities.TheUtilitysectorisprimarilyanincomesector,meaninginvestorsbuythesestocksfortheirdividends,notforgrowth.Assuch,Utilitiesrallyduringfallingrates(asinvestorsbuyfortheyield)andfallwhenratesarerising.Whatdoesthebelowchartlookliketoyou?Becausetome,itlooksliketheUtilities(XLU)sectorisrallyinghard,meaningrateswillbeFALLING.TheFedisdonewithratehikes.Watch,assoonasthestockmarketcollapsesFedofficialswillstartrollingbackalltalkoftwomoreratehikesthisyear.
9
7
TheRealEstateInvestmentTrustorREITindustryisalsosignalingthattheFedisdonehikingrates.REITsareanincomeplay(thistypeofinvestmentvehiclehastopayout90%ofitsearningsindividends).Becauseofthis,whenratesarerising,REITscollapseandwhenratesarefalling,REITSsoar.Takealookatthischart.ThisisastorageREIT.AnditisVERYbullish.
10
8
We’regettingonboard.ActiontoTake:BuyPublicStorage(PSA).Elsewhere,thelong-USTreasuryETF(TLT)hasjustputinahigherlow.Allweneedtodoistakeoutthattopbluelineandthewhole“election”rallyor“Trumptrade”isover.Againthischartistellingusthatlower,NOThigher,ratesarecoming.
11
9
Similarly,theotherassetclassthatsufferedpost-electionnight,Gold,isnowonthecuspoftakingoutcriticalresistance.Ourminersareabouttoexplodehigher.
12
10
MypointwithallofthisisthattheTrumpunwindisfinallyunderway.Withthatinmind,ifyou’relookingfornewpositions,thereislittlevalueifanyonthelongside.ThereWILLbesomeincredibleopportunitiestoloadupinboththeEnergyandEmergingMarketsectorsoncethismarketmoveends.ButrightnowisNOTthetime.Oilisinveryserioustrouble.Iwouldnotgonearit,oranythingintheEnergysectorbeforewehit$46.
DittoforEmergingMarkets.Ithinkthislatestrallyisoverdone.We’redueforapullbacktothebluelineatwhichpointI’llhaveanumberofnewindividualplaysforyou.
13
11
Ontheshortsidehoweverthereareanumberofappealingtrades.However,beforegettingintothemIonceagainwanttostressthatyoushouldkeepyourpositionsizesinanyoftheserelativelysmall.Donotputahugeamountofcapitaltoworkhere.Thesepositionsaremeanttobehedgeswhilewewaitforthemarkettobottom.Havinggottenthatoutoftheway…Firstandforemost,Apple(AAPL)hasadatewith$120.
14
12
WeareBEYONDoverboughthere.Thisisthesinglemostownedstockinexistenceformutualfunds.Andthey’reallabouttogettakentothecleaners.ActiontoTake:ShortApple(AAPL).AnotheroneistheCopperMinersETF(COPX).Allthathypeandhopeofaneconomicutopiaisgoingtogetunwound.We’regoingtotheblueline.
15
GrahamSummersChiefMarketStrategistPhoenixCapitalResearch
BestRegards,
13
ActiontoTake:SHORTtheCopperMinersETF(COPX)ThesetwoShortswillserveuswellwhilewewaitforthemarketstobottom.Thisconcludesthisweek’smarketupdate.I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Barringanynewdevelopments,you’llnexthearfrommenextWednesdayinourlongermonthlyissueofPrivateWealthAdvisory.Untilthen…
16
OPEN POSITIONS
STOCKS PORTFOLIO
Pricesasofmarket’scloseon3/23/17.Gainsincludedividends
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $12.00 -22%
PeruETF EPU 12/7/16 $33.23 $33.82 2%
UraniumETF URA 6/8/16 $15.49 $15.24 4%
Cameco CCJ 1/4/17 $10.69 $11.00 3%
CoalETF KOL 1/4/17 $12.59 $13.81 10% AgriculturalCommoditiesETF RJA 1/12/17 $6.46 $6.42
-1%
EmergingmarketsETF EEM 1/12/17 $36.60 $39.71
8%
ChinaETF ASHR 2/1/17 $24.91 $25.16 1%
BrazilETF EWZ 2/8/17 $37.58 $36.61 -2%
UtilitiesETF XLU 2/8/17 $49.40 $52.01 6%
PublicStorage PSA 3/23/17 $225.92 NEW BUY!
17
BONDS PORTFOLIO
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
NuveenMuni.Fund NVG 1/2/14 $13.12 $14.38 32% EmergingMarketBonds EMB 11/21/16
$109.82$113.49 5%
LongUSTreasuries TLT 11/21/16 $121.05 $120.64 1%
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
Gold 3/17/10 $1,120 $1,244.00 11% Silver* 3/17/10 $16.23 $17.60 8%
GoldMinersETF GDX 10/5/16 $22.83 $23.03 1% GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ 10/5/16 $37.52 $36.26
1%
SilverWheaton SLW 10/5/16 $22.59 $20.61 -8% SilverStandardResources SSRI 10/5/16 $10.30 $10.54
2%
BarrickGold ABX 10/5/16 $15.54 $19.37 25%
NewGold NGD 10/5/16 $3.88 $2.95 -24%
RoyalGold RGLD 2/8/17 $71.36 $67.15 -6%
SilverMinersETF SIL 3/15/17 $35.81 $35.85 0%
PRECIOUS METALS/ MINERS PORTFOLIO
Pricesasofmarket’scloseon3/23/17.Gainsincludedividends*Averagepriceof$17.50and$14.97
18
SPECIAL SITUATIONS/HEDGES/SHORTS PORTFOLIO
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
FranceETF(SHORT) EWQ 9/16/16 $23.38 $26.24 -12% ItalyETF(SHORT) EWI 9/16/16 $21.56 $25.52 -18% Russell2000ETF(SHORT) IWM 12/14/16 $135.37 $134.78 0% FinancialsETF(SHORT) XLF 12/21/16 $23.61 $23.57 0% USSteel(SHORT) X 2/1/17 $31.33 $34.02 -6% Apple(SHORT) AAPL 3/23/17 $140.92 NEW SHORT! CopperMinersETF(SHORT)
COPX 3/23/17 $22.64NEW SHORT!
CASH/ CURRENCIES PORTFOLIO
POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE
BUYPRICE
CURRENTPRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
EuroTrust FXE 10/5/16 $108.80 $104.54 -4%
Pricesasofmarket’scloseon3/15/17.Gainsincludedividends
19
RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS
POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE
BUYPRICE
SELLDATE
SELLPRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
AmericanEagleOutfitters(SHORT) AEO 5/26/16 $15.36 1/31/17 $14.59 5%CliffsNatResources(FIRSTHALF) CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 2/13/17 $12.10 19%
Ambev ABEV 11/25/16 $4.96 2/23/17 $5.93 21%Cemex CX 11/25/16 $8.07 2/23/17 $8.69 8%CliffsNatResources(SECONDHALF) CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 2/23/17 $11.13 10%
Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $95.82 3/8/17 $81.28 -8% EnterpriseProductsPartners EPD 11/31/16 $25.93 3/8/17 $27.83
9%
NaturalGasETF UNG 2/22/17 $6.57 3/8/17 $7.11 8%