Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Tracking , 2015) , 2015assets.nationalnewswatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/... · 2015-07-22 · (Released 07/22/2015) As you know, every week of

Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Tracking(period ending July 17th, 2015)released July 22nd, 2015

www.nanosresearch.com 2

Nanos ballot tracking Conservatives 31, NDP 31, Liberals 27(Released 07/22/2015)

As you know, every week of the year Nanos keeps the political pulse on the federal scene. Now that we are approaching the federal election we will be making public our weekly tracking numbers. Factoring ballot support and preferences for Prime Minister we are still in a competitive environment for the major parties. In terms of the Nanos Party Power Index, the NDP outscore the other major parties because of the proportion of Canadians that would consider voting NDP.

Based on the Nanos weekly tracking which is comprised of a four week rolling average, the national ballot numbers stand at 31 per cent respectively for the Conservatives and the NDP, 27 per cent for the Liberals, and six per cent for the Green Party of Canada.

The weekly tracking on the Nanos Party Power Index suggests that the NDP have the highest score on the Index. The NDP registered 55 points out of a possible 100 points while the Conservatives registered 51 points, and the Liberals 50 points. The Green Party of Canada scored 31 points while the BQ scored 33 points (QC only).

The Nanos Party Power Index comprises a basket of political goods that includes ballot preferences, accessible voters, preferred PM views and evaluations of the leaders. It is modeled similar to a standard confidence index. It is a random telephone survey conducted with live agents, reaching out to Canadians through a land- and cell-line dual frame sample.

Perceptions related to who Canadians would prefer as Prime Minister remain relatively tight between Harper and Mulcair. Both were the preferred choice of 29 per cent of Canadians respectively while 23 per cent preferred Trudeau (a new 12 month low for Trudeau on this measure).


The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Canada is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities.

Contact: Nik NanosOttawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237Washington DC: (202) [email protected]

Data Summary

This Week Last Week4 Weeks

Ago3 Months

Ago1 Year Ago (July 2014)

12 Month High

12 Month Low

12 Month Average

Canada Party Power Index

NDP 55.1 55.6 56.2 51.8 49.1 56.2 47.6 50.7

Conservative 51.3 50.3 50.3 50.8 51.3 54.3 48.4 51.7

Liberal 49.7 51.0 53.3 57.2 56.5 60.7 49.7 56.1

Bloc 32.9 31.7 28.1 25.5 26.9 32.9 22.9 26.7

Green 30.9 31.0 31.2 34.9 31.5 35.2 30.1 31.8

Party Consider

NDP 52.9% 53.3% 51.4% 44.3% 41.7% 53.3% 41.4% 45.6%

Liberal 43.6% 43.5% 46.3% 51.5% 55.3% 59.7% 42.9% 52.8%

Conservative 42.6% 42.2% 38.1% 39.6% 44.1% 44.7% 36.1% 41.6%

Bloc 31.7% 34.5% 35.2% 30.0% 25.7% 39.6% 25.3% 31.3%

Green 25.2% 27.5% 28.4% 30.5% 28.1% 30.8% 23.4% 27.3%

Preferred Prime Minister

Mulcair 28.8% 27.9% 27.2% 19.8% 17.8% 28.8% 15.1% 19.5%

Harper 28.5% 26.0% 27.2% 28.8% 30.8% 34.1% 25.5% 30.2%

Trudeau 23.3% 25.4% 26.7% 30.7% 30.5% 35.8% 23.3% 30.4%

May 3.8% 3.7% 2.8% 4.6% 4.8% 6.5% 2.8% 4.2%

Duceppe 2.7% 3.2% 1.9% 0.9% 2.6% 3.4% 0.5% 1.4%

Unsure 12.9% 13.7% 14.2% 15.2% 13.5% 18.1% 11.7% 14.1%


Weekly Nanos Party Power IndexSince voters are not actually able to make a choice between elections, it is interesting to think about party strength and support more broadly. The Nanos Party Power Index fills this need by incorporating more information than just current vote preference.

The Nanos Party Power Index is a weekly composite measurement of federal party brands based on four questions about the federal parties and their leadership. The questions include: • a ballot question that captures the 1st and 2nd vote preferences;• a measure of whether the respondent would consider voting for the party;• the 1st and 2nd preferences for Prime Minister of the current federal leaders; and,• whether the respondent believes each current leader has the quality to be a good leader.

The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength and 100 means it has maximum brand strength. A score above 50 is an indication of brand strength for the party and its leader at this time.

The important factors in this weekly tracking include the direction of the brand strength or weakness and also the brand strength of one federal party relative to another.

58

50

5251

48

55

33

3131

33

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc Column2 Column3


Canada Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=1,000)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Canada is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities.


Party Power Index Tracking by Region


6261

49

43

55 56

3234

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Liberal Conservative NDP Green


Atlantic Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=100)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the Atlantic is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.


57

46

39

46

5861

32

2731

33

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc


Quebec Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=247)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Quebec is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.


58

5257

51

43

54

33 32

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65



Ontario Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=300)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Ontario is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.


54

43

62 64

38

51

33

29

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70



Prairies Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=201)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the Prairies is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.


60

5250

5149

52

3835

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70



British Columbia Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=152)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for BC is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.


Party Power Index Tracking by Age


5656

48

52 54

38 35

33

40

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70



18 to 29 Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=205)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 18 to 29 age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples.


58

5251 52

46

59

37

35

30

35

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65






60

51

5253

43

53

313131

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65




The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 40 to 49 age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for PM, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples.


59

474948

50

60

32

293031

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65






55

44

54

55

49

52

30

2529

29

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60



60 plus Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=239)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 60 plus age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples.


Party Power Index Tracking by Gender



Male Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=498)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for males is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for gender subsamples.


57

48

56 54

47

54

31

2829

32

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65


58

52

47

49

49

56

35 34

3234

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65



Female Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=502)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for females is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for gender subsamples.


National Political Tracking Numbers

21www.nanosresearch.com

22www.nanosresearch.com

Weekly Tracking – First Ranked Choice(Four week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=836)Question: For those parties you would

consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences?


37%

30% 26%

19%

27%

30%

36% 38%

40%

31%

16%18% 18%

31% 31%

12%10% 10%

6%5%

4%6% 7%

4%

6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Liberal CP NDP Bloc Green

Election Election Election Election

National Vote Considerations Tracking



National – Weekly Tracking(Four week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=1,000)

Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Conservative Party


42%39%38%41%42%

37%39%37%38%39%41%42%41%39%41%39%41%

43%42%43%45%43%41%42%41% 43%

52%50%51%

51%47%54%52%55%51%50%

50%50%51%53%49%53%50%49%51%51%49%48%52%51%52% 51%

6% 11%12% 8% 10%10%10% 8% 11%11% 9% 8% 8% 8% 10% 8% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 9% 7% 7% 8% 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-10-19 2014-01-04 2014-03-21 2014-06-06 2014-08-22 2014-11-07 2015-01-23 2015-04-10 2015-06-26

Would consider voting Conservative Would not consider voting Conservative Unsure


Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] NDP


58%

41%43%42%43%

40%41%41%39%40%

46%43%43%44%44%45%43%44%45%46%45%

42%45%

47%52% 53%

30%48%45%48%

44%49%47%49%

48%49%43%46%48%48%

43%45%46%45%

46%45%48%49%45%45%41% 41%

12%11%12%10%13%12%12%10%13%11%11%10%10% 8% 14%11%11%11% 9% 9% 8% 10%10% 8% 8% 7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06

2013-09-07

2013-10-12

2013-11-16

2013-12-21

2014-01-25

2014-02-28

2014-04-04

2014-05-09

2014-06-13

2014-07-18

2014-08-22

2014-09-26

2014-10-31

2014-12-05

2015-01-09

2015-02-13

2015-03-20

2015-04-24

2015-05-29

2015-07-03

Would consider voting NDP Would not consider voting NDP Unsure



Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Liberal Party


62%

50%52%50%47%

53%50%

47%51%50%

55%53%55%54%57%59%

54%55%53%

58%53%51%53%51%

47%44%

26%40%38%39%41%38%38%42%36%39%

36%37%35%40%

33%33%36%36%40%36%40%41%40%41% 44% 48%

12%10%11%10%12%10%13%11%13%12% 9% 10%10% 7% 10% 8% 10% 9% 8% 6% 7% 8% 7% 8% 9% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06

2013-09-07

2013-10-12

2013-11-16

2013-12-21

2014-01-25

2014-02-28

2014-04-04

2014-05-09

2014-06-13

2014-07-18

2014-08-22

2014-09-26

2014-10-31

2014-12-05

2015-01-09

2015-02-13

2015-03-20

2015-04-24

2015-05-29

2015-07-03

Would consider voting Liberal Would not consider voting Liberal Unsure



Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Bloc Québécois


35%40%

35%30%

33%32%36%35%

24%

34%31%

33%

25%31%

32%30%29%34%

28%29%33%32%31%32%31% 32%

52%51%

59%60%59%59%56%58%

64%56%

62%59%65%63%62%

67%62%

61%63%

58%

63%59%

64%63%64% 64%13% 9% 6% 9% 8% 9% 8% 7% 12%10% 7% 8% 10% 6% 6% 4% 9% 5% 9% 13% 4% 9% 5% 5% 5% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06

2013-09-07

2013-10-12

2013-11-16

2013-12-21

2014-01-25

2014-02-28

2014-04-04

2014-05-09

2014-06-13

2014-07-18

2014-08-22

2014-09-26

2014-10-31

2014-12-05

2015-01-09

2015-02-13

2015-03-20

2015-04-24

2015-05-29

2015-07-03

Would consider voting BQ Would not consider voting BQ Unsure

Quebec only – Weekly TrackingFour week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=248)


Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Green Party


38%

27%26%24%

30%27%26%28%

24%27%28%27%

33%31%

26%26%28%26%26%

29%27%

23%

30%29%25% 25%

46%61%62%66%61%63%63%62%64%62%63%62%

59%61%63%65%63%66%

68%63%66%68%63%62%68% 67%

16%11%12%10%10%10%11%10%12%11%10%11% 8% 8% 11% 9% 9% 8% 5% 8% 7% 9% 7% 9% 7% 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06

2013-09-07

2013-10-12

2013-11-16

2013-12-21

2014-01-25

2014-02-28

2014-04-04

2014-05-09

2014-06-13

2014-07-18

2014-08-22

2014-09-26

2014-10-31

2014-12-05

2015-01-09

2015-02-13

2015-03-20

2015-04-24

2015-05-29

2015-07-03

Would consider voting Green Would not consider voting Green Unsure


National Leadership Tracking



Question: Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for Prime Minister? [ROTATE PARTY LEADERS]


30%

23%

29% 29%

17%

29%

1% 3%

6%

4%

16% 13%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Justin Trudeau (Liberal) Stephen Harper (Conservative) Thomas Mulcair (NDP)

Gilles Duceppe (Bloc) Elizabeth May (Green) Unsure

National – Weekly Tracking – First Ranked Choice(Four week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=1,000)


Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Stephen Harper


55%50%

55%54%50%

53%49%50%

52%53%56%55%54%

49%54%55%57%57%

54%57%58%59%

54%59%

55% 53%

38%42%36%

39%41%39%43%42%40%37%35%36%37%44%37%38%34%35%38%37%36%34%39%35%39% 41%

7% 7% 10% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 10% 9% 10% 9% 7% 9% 7% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10

2013-10-05

2013-11-30

2014-01-25

2014-03-21

2014-05-16

2014-07-11

2014-09-05

2014-10-31

2014-12-26

2015-02-20

2015-04-17

2015-06-12

Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure



Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Thomas Mulcair


45%44%43%43%

51%49%

46%49%48%

50%51%47%

51%52%49%

52%51%53%50%

53%51%49%54%55%

59% 58%

30%28%28%31%

28%26%29%28%29%27%28%

27%26%25%27%26%23%

25%28%24%28%25%

23%26%22% 24%

25%27%29%26%21%25%25%23%24%23%22%26%24%24%24%23%26%22%23%23%21%26%23%19%19% 18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10

2013-10-05

2013-11-30

2014-01-25

2014-03-21

2014-05-16

2014-07-11

2014-09-05

2014-10-31

2014-12-26

2015-02-20

2015-04-17

2015-06-12




Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Justin Trudeau


55%54%58%

54%52%53%55%54%53%52%53%54%52%53%

58%62%

55%55%54%57%58%56%57%

52%51%

45%

29%29%24%32%32%31%31%33%32%34%34%32%33%

34%31%25%29%

33%35%31%32%32%31%37%37% 44%

16%17%18%14%16%16%14%14%15%14%13%14%16%13%11%12%16%12%11%12%10%12%12%11%12% 11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10

2013-10-05

2013-11-30

2014-01-25

2014-03-21

2014-05-16

2014-07-11

2014-09-05

2014-10-31

2014-12-26

2015-02-20

2015-04-17

2015-06-12




Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Mario Beaulieu/Gilles Duceppe


23%25%

15%

21%21%18%20%23%21%22%24%19%17%

23%

16%19%

15%

24%

9%

24%24%

15%16%

23%24%

50%

40%

46%

48%

50%52%49%49%

48%50%45%

48%49%

46%

50%53%

53%52%

52%

61%49%

52%57%

54%50%51%

44%

37%29%38%29%28%33%31%28%30%33%28%33%37%27%31%28%33%24%30%27%24%27%30%27%26% 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10

2013-10-05

2013-11-30

2014-01-25

2014-03-21

2014-05-16

2014-07-11

2014-09-05

2014-10-31

2014-12-26

2015-02-20

2015-04-17

2015-06-12


Quebec only – Weekly Tracking(Four week rolling average ending July 17th, 2015, n=248)


Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Elizabeth May


31%30%31%28%

33%30%32%30%

26%

34%35%34%34%35%32%30%30%29%28%

32%30%31%34%33%

28% 29%

43%41%40%44%40%

40%41%43%46%39%

40%38%38%38%41%

40%39%42%42%40%

44%41%38%41%47% 46%

26%29%29%28%26%30%28%27%28%27%25%28%28%27%27%30%31%29%30%29%26%28%28%26%25% 25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10

2013-10-05

2013-11-30

2014-01-25

2014-03-21

2014-05-16

2014-07-11

2014-09-05

2014-10-31

2014-12-26

2015-02-20

2015-04-17

2015-06-12



Methodologywww.nanosresearch.com 37

Survey Methodology


The Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadians (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength and 100 means it has maximum brand strength. A score above 50 is an indication of brand strength for the party and its leader at this time.

The current report is based on a four week rolling average of Canadian opinion ending July 17th, 2015.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.


About NanosNanos is one of North America’s most trusted research and strategy organizations. Our team of professionals is regularly called upon by senior executives to deliver superior intelligence and market advantage whether it be helping to chart a path forward, managing a reputation or brand risk or understanding the trends that drive success. Services range from traditional telephone surveys, through to elite in-depth interviews, online research and focus groups. Nanos clients range from Fortune 500 companies through to leading advocacy groups interested in understanding and shaping the public landscape. Whether it is understanding your brand or reputation, customer needs and satisfaction, engaging employees or testing new ads or products, Nanos provides insight you can trust.

View our brochure

Nik Nanos FMRIAChairman, Nanos Research GroupOttawa (613) 234-4666 ext. 237Washington DC (202) 697-9924 [email protected]

Documents

Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Tracking , 2015) , 2015assets.nationalnewswatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/... · 2015-07-22 · (Released 07/22/2015) As you know, every week of